for dealers to sell treasuries back to treasury. buybacks also strengthen treasuries cash management, including reduced borrowing costs over time. we made progress in standardizing risk management through the adoption of the new rule to expand central clearing in the treasury market. with increased consistent regulatory oversight and advanced investor protection, with a rule clarifying when liquidity providers are required to register as dealers. our approach considers not just strong, core foundations but also the stability of the system as a whole and the need for strong communication and coordination. our response to regional banking stress in 2023 showcased how we are making good on these aspects. a year and a half ago, silicon valley bank and signature bank experienced runs that were particularly large and fast by historical standards. these banks have seen rapid deposit growth, especially in uninsured deposits, as well as significant, unrealized losses on their securities portfolios. the runs were followed by deposit outflows

1 more about it from these treasury questions? i suspect the government _ treasury questions? suspect the government has - treasury questions? i suspect the government has been - the government has been carefully planning this period of rolling out all the bits of detail we have heard over the last two weeks. not a small amount of pre—budget briefing, this year. i think a lot more than we normally see, and the speaker of the house, through lindsay hoyle had a lot to say about that. he said that it was about that. he said that it was a supreme discourtesy to the house when the chancellor, in the states, said that she would be changing the way in which she decides what she can borrow, the rules under which she decides what she can borrow. he said that he was very disappointed with rachel reeves. the speaker of the houseis reeves. the speaker of the house is not happy that all this briefing is going on. i suspect that today's questions we probably won't hear any big prebudget announcements because, i think the government will want to get a much bigger audience for that sort of in

and finally, treasury's work to protect the u.s. financial system by cracking down on illicit finance depends on financial institutions. treasury issued new regulations to help safeguard the residential real estate and investment advisory sectors from illicit finance. we have appreciated your engagement and feedback, including on our latest program rule to strengthen our anti-money-laundering and countering the financing of terrorism work, which we are working to finalize. we also depend on financial institutions for suspicious activity reports that have enabled u.s. authorities to achieve successful prosecutions and sees billions of dollars involved in illicit finance. that's why we've recently been convening financial institutions and law enforcement officials in key regions to exchange information that will help us crack down on illicit financing that fuels the opioid epidemic. domestic and international financial institutions are our front-line defense in other contexts as well, such as in enforcing our sanctions. nowhere is thi

so you can see this angst in the treasury market.rying to scramble for upside protection for yields headed higher potentially after this election. tom: are they building out a divergent policy for the fed? >> we heard in christine lagarde yesterday. we've had inflation dropping near the fed's target. service inflation is down to 3.5%. that is on her mind and she reiterated that yesterday. we heard envelope roy talking about the downside risk to inflation and growth. he called them significant so he saw some weakening in the euro. it's been on a weakening trend. down 3% so far in the last month. tom: thank you very much. coming up, mcdonald's is grappling with a severe e. coli outbreak in the u.s. it's killed one person and made dozens sick. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> there was a narrative i think that was prevailing when this administration took office that the united states was on the verge of being surpassed by china as an economic power, that the united states' influence was waning in the world. that china's influence was on rise. i

treasury announced bigger auction sizes, saying the u.s. government had to borrow more so they had to increase option sizes. we are seeing the grumblings of a similar move in that kind of term premium. >> talk about the european bond markets and how they shaped of yesterday on the back of european data and expectations that maybe the fed will be less aggressive in terms of cutting. >> it was a painful day in europe. there was no data to spark this other than the move in the treasury market. what caught my eye was this move in italian 10 year yields, a 15 basis point move, surprising for that and if you flip onto my next chart we can take a look at how that was the second-biggest move this year second to the move that we saw earlier in april and that was a hot labor report that caused the move. this was quite similar in the italian bond market but on no clear catalysts, makes us think perhaps the market is getting more jittery about the election. >> thank you very much. we will continue to monitor because european bonds will start trading an

why is 10-year treasury yield treasury yield above 4% right now secondly, up right now i want your takengs season, i know that estimates have come all the way down that is fine one point ten% then 4% looks like averaging better-than-expected 6% about what is your view what you heard who are you zeroing in on in terms of earning season the height of earnings this week what companies are you focused on in terms of a window into what is going on in earnings period he as well? >> well, first, on the yields question i think it is fascinating to watch backup in yields across all segments of the market, not just the long end of the treasury curve, but, obviously, mortgage rates moved up, cost of borrowing costs have gone up on heels of this outsized rate cut market tightening as fed quote/unquote easing i think the reason in treasury market seeing this backup in long rates, is inflation premiums increasing for the reasons i mentioned at the top that is that inflation data we are above fed target and accelerating in that direction, you know three-month average, of the cpi is higher now substant

treasury secretary janet yellen for a few opening remarks. madam secretary. [applause] sec. yellen: thank you, mark. two years ago, on the eve of the annual meetings, i called for the evolution of the multilateral development banks. today i'm glad to be here with the president, lord malloch-b rown, and the minister to lay out what we have achieved and to reaffirm our commitment to sustaining momentum. i called for evolution because as we begin to exit covid recessions around the world, i and many others saw that the stakes were high. there has been insufficient progress or troubling reversals by many of the sustainable development goals, and we faced urgent global challenges that could quickly unravel hard-earned development gains and diminish prospects for the future. from climate change to pandemics and other global health emergencies to fragility, conflict, and violence. i also had a strong conviction about the vital role ndb's could play at this crucial moment. over decades they have responded to their shareholders, build trusted relationships with developing country gov

look at the 10-year treasury up 4. 4%. not long ago it was 3-eight.-year treasury yield is firmly above 4%. and rising. the market doesn't like it. kroger's potential record $24 billion of albertsons faces multiple legal challenges. they don't want this thing to go through. lydia: they are throwing everything they can at the potential marker, the largest supermarket merger in us history creating 5000 stores, 700,000 employees across 48 states. the ftc was joined by nine state suing to block the merger, the agency rested its case last month. this week, two additional state court trials are concluding j judge will hear closing arguments today. regulators say allowing the grocery chains to merge will reduce competition and will lead to increased prices for consumers. executives from kroger and albertsons testified, pushing back hard and say this merger will bring prices down. they also argued we have to look at the food market very broadly, not just traditional grocery stores but amazon, walmart, costco, the big guys, kroger and albertsons can't emerge,

at the moment, the treasury receives £7 billion a year through inheritance tax.the £800 billion of revenue the treasury gets every year. few states pay inheritance tax, so at a time when many assets are rising in value, in particular houses, of course, and there is a big generational transfer of wealth and away from the baby boomers to their children and grandchildren, you can see why people in the treasury think this could be a good source of money to tap, but it will be controversial.— controversial. yes, it well. talk us _ controversial. yes, it well. talk us through _ controversial. yes, it well. talk us through what - controversial. yes, it well. talk us through what the l controversial. yes, it well. - talk us through what the likely political fallout from such a decision could be? depends how it is done- _ decision could be? depends how it is done. the _ decision could be? depends how it is done. the conservatives - it is done. the conservatives haven't waited for the budget to attack this idea. they are long—standing opponents of trying to raise money thr

treasury market is flashing a fresh warning sign is yields search. we will bring you in to hear the so-called term premium on those 10 year treasury note expressing the extra yield investors are demanding for owning a debt rather than rolling over shorter term securities, a federal reserve gauge that rose from near zero to just over a quarter, the highest point since last november. market watchers say it reveals investor perception of future risk. it is not a pretty chart, but i feel vindicated, given we have been talking about this risk all year. another chart from bloomberg intelligence is on the election, actually. you have seen a lot of movement in the 10 year. some of it has to do with future perception of how next year crypto if donald trump were to -- next year could go if donald trump were to win. the blue line is predicted odds of a donald trump win. how crazy close is that matching the 10 year yield? the latest week brought you back to a 10 year yield that hit for 25 earlier this week. we have come kind of round robin. but staying elevated

right now.— watching it closely within the treasury right now. bbc news. this is bbc news. we are going to the usa now. kamala harris and donald trump are on whirlwind tours of battleground states in the us, as the presidential election enters the final days of campaigning. it is one of the closest election races in decades. in each of the seven key swing states — which, historically, have voted both republican and democrat over the years — the difference between the main candidates falls inside the margin of error, making it hard to draw any concrete conclusions from the numbers. ione wells is in detroit. both candidates are going to be campaigning in two battleground states, arizona and nevada, hoping to create viral moments and momentum withjust hoping to create viral moments and momentum with just days after go of this campaign. kamala harris appearing with jennifer lopez in nevada. donald trump expecting to appear with the commentator tucker carlson in arizona. with more than 40% of people in arizona having already voted, a lot of this is ab

treasuries.ng treasury yields would be more contained than in 2016 based on a comparison between expectations for fed policy today versus then. i'm pleased to say good friend of ours matt hornbach joins us live. give me more detail on that. the bigger difference now between now and 2016. matt: the differences extend well beyond what people expect the fed to deliver over the course of the next couple years. but certainly the fed is a very big part of the story. in 2016 we have to remember that janet yellen said was about to embark on a rate hiking cycle, the second time they were trying to start it up. and investors generally expected the fed to be hiking rates very gradually going into that election. in the wake of that election, of course, investors changed their minds very quickly. over the course of the next year, revised higher their expectations for fed policy to the tune of about 1 1/4%. that doesn't sound like that big of a deal today because we have just lived through 525 basis points wor

at the moment, the treasury receives £7 billion a year through inheritance tax.ring the £800 billion of revenue the treasury gets every year. fewer than 1 in 20 estates pay inheritance tax, so at a time when many assets are rising in value, in particular houses, of course, and there is a big generational transfer of wealth under way from the baby boomers to their children and grandchildren, you can see why people in the treasury think this could be a good source of money to tap, but it will be controversial. yes, it will. talk us through what the likely political fallout from such a decision could be? depends how it's done. the conservatives haven't waited for the budget to attack this idea. they are long—standing opponents of trying to raise money through inheritance tax, they think it is unfair and that people should have the right to pass on as much money as possible to their descendants. so they've already said this is unfair. but it depends what actually happens and the argument that the chancellor makes about the decisions she takes, and that of course appl

treasury curve and we could see a fed on hold in 2025. tom: valerie tytel, thank you. some lines crossing from an ecb member. this is the dutch saying the ecb makes decisions meeting by meeting. the economic growth risks are already materializing. it is arguably more interesting. economic growth rates are already materializing. we must carefully assess inflation implications. some lines crossing from the ecb official. back to the corporate space. disappointment from samsung with shares slipping after its pre-lim third-quarter earnings missed expectations. the company issued a rare apology for the week results. an unusual admission that it is grappling with a potential crisis. the world's largest memory maker is playing catch-up with sk hynix which has taken the lead in producing chips in ai applications. the read across to the broader asian chimp space on the back of this unusual apology coming through from samsung and the head of its chip division newly appointed talking about the potential crisis and the disappointing results. sk hynix has taken a march in terms of t

treasury. >> big week for u.s. data. when it comes the labor market, we are looking for hints that the recent tightening we saw is it just a blip or a start of a new trend. this is job openings for unemployed workers. bloomberg economics predicts we could see another rise again but they don't think it will be sustained. they think the recent tightening is just a blip in will go back to seeing easing in the labor market. not only do we learn about labor market data, but it's also month and this week on thursday. flip over to my next chart. i want to talk about what goldman's warning about. they are warning we could see a funding squeeze, just like we saw the end of last month, and they point to the fact that because of the risk events on the horizon, the election and the fed meeting, the auction treasury schedule has been compressed. month end is on thursday. on that date, we will see the largest treasury auction settlement date that we've ever had. some 530 billion dollars of treasury settlements is expected to take plac

the treasury said toda 's electricity. the treasury said today's dmp _ electricity.s drop in _ electricity. the treasury said today's drop in price - electricity. the treasury said today's drop in price rises i electricity. the treasury said i today's drop in price rises would be welcome news for millions of families, but that there was more to do. traders are now betting on two more interest rate cuts by the end of the year, which can bring welcome relief for household finances. marc ashdown, bbc news. our economics editor faisal islam joins us now. how will we feel the impact of this? is economics reporters are often the purveyors of bad news, inflationary shocks, energy shocks and the like. we can say that this is a good new surprise, that inflation is below the bank of england target for the first time in three years. and it is notjust first time in three years. and it is not just that. first time in three years. and it is notjust that. underlying measures of inflation like the service sector and core inflation are also down. that does give the green light for th

term premiums on the treasury curve are likely to inch higher. credit spreads, i'm mindful, are historically tight right now. and early cycle tight. i don't know if we'll look back on that and say that's an anomaly, and the other thing that's going on is we probably can't keep fiscal spending at this level globally, witness china being a good example. gdp growth if we can't keep spending this way at the government level is going to drift down, and i think that's going to also have an effect on markets and resiliency and winners and losers among companies. >> you mentioned term premiums. so therefore, that's kind of the premium that bond investors are going to demand for holding longer term debt, perhaps because of longer term deficits and things like that. at this point, where say the 10, 30-year treasuries trade, do you think there's anything anomalous about those levels around 4%, 4%-plus, that would suggest that there's that -- that that term premium is widening out, or is this where they would probably be normalli? >> well, so i've honestly g

why are treasury yields going up and up and up.market guest this morning says because of trump earlier in the show. you explain why are treasury yields going up and up and up? >> there are genuine worries in the short term. they've gone through 4. 3 earlier today. could go higher. i don't think it could be there for long. there's two big reasons. we have a short-term spike while we worry about inflation. we have to get use to inflation because the fed has to inflate to get out of our debt problem. debt to gdp, 120%. we got a spending problem. in order to take care of that problem, for the last 200 years have inflated their way out of it. all roads lead to inflation so we can get ourselves out of the debt problem. number 2 is now that the interest on our debt is the second biggest line item in our budget, social security has overtaken our military, that's another reason they have to keep rates lower. maybe not right away, we have a tour 3-month bumpy ride while we get used to these rates but we need to have a time the fed runs a lit

what does that mean for where treasuries go? george: that's a great point. the long end of the technical market is very specific. buyers are out there for certain reasons, meaningful capital and funding for governments. the investors that invest out of the long end, typically it is not just a sort of traders market, but it is very, very technical. your point about supply, treasury supply is clearly high and going higher. one of the issues will be not so much the notion of the volume of debt that the government needs to issue to fund itself, but the duration that the debt is going to get longer. bill supply went up dramatically over the last 12 to 18 months. it is likely to come down a little and the government will have to refi longer duration positions. finding those buyers is going to be a little bit more tricky than it has been. and then you sort of layer on what is happening fundamentally, as we mentioned the economy is doing well and the fed is cutting rates. the long end is on the edge, so to speak. we haven't even mentioned the potential for the polit

first, we will hear from the treasury assistant secretary latortue. and we will hold a panel discussion that i will introduce and moderate. following that discussion and the q and a with all of you, there will be a short networking reception outside this room. i welcome all of you who are here in person. let's begin with the first part. as assistant secretary alexia leads international trade for the treasury department. she served as deputy ceo at the millennium challenge corporation. as a managing director at the european bank for reconstruction and development. as a financial inclusion leader at the world bank. as the distance the -- deputy assistant secretary for developing policy, which is where i first had the opportunity to work closely with her a decade ago when she led the action agenda on financing. we are incredibly excited to welcome her back to discuss the importance and relevance of climate resilient infrastructure in international development. please join me in welcoming assistant secretary latortue to the stage. [applause] ms. latortue:

so, we have, you know, a lot of treasury supply.'ve got that very strong september report. but, it's been weak for a better part of the year. and then, of course, getting into next week is the election and of course the fed meeting. and i do think the fed has the makings of having a discussion about the maturity profile in the portfolio, and whether they ought to be facilitating all of this government spending. so, to me, it's just a wild sequence of nine days. you know, amidst that -- an interesting election. >> well, the other issue is just what you really think is driving the entire in the treasury market. we talked about that with steve earlier, too. is it the potential for weakness in the economy? is it concern for needs of the treasury with the amount coming up? we've seen higher yields and that poses a problem just in terms of what it means for budget deficits for united states, too. >> yeah, there's no doubt that the supply issue is a very big deal. i reject people that say there's been no evidence that the treasury market h

in 10 year treasuries. forcing the price up and the yield down. oil is at $70 a barrel on this breaking story. one more point. >> last time i was on, if you are on margin come off margin and the skew which is the price to ensure, hit 10 year high, in the last week, doesn't guarantee a correction but it indicates we are invested but off of margin, ride out the short-term bumps and do fine after the election. we made a lot of money. not right now. stuart: good stuff today. tell me what's going on with apple. a big loser. lauren: it's down 3%. two problems. barclay says their channel checks indicate the iphone 16 orders have been cut. little demand and in india, a fire at a plant that makes parts for the iphone that get hit their production and reportedly asking suppliers in china to fill up. stuart: how about meta. they are down. lauren: they are up and at a new high. in this market malaise, this is a big winner, pivotal research initiated, check the price target, $780, ac strong revenue growth thanks to peop

the treasury department they want to sell treasury notes to china but they don't want to recognize theis a direct economic attack on the infrastructure of the united states. wherever universities at the level of espionage that is happening in our publicly funded universities, these are the things that we need to change systematically. maria: we have not heard kamala harris say anything about it and we know the oversight committee is investigating tim walz, kamala harris will campaign in houston she will be joined by beyoncÉ, a lot of celebrity around her and she's also campaigning with colin allred whose challenging ted cruz and texas governor greg abbott is slamming the spaces that the borders are, kamala harris can come all the way to houston where josh lynn on barry was murdered by trend da aragua gang members that she led into the country but she cannot be bothered to visit her family or say her name. a new report details how the homeland security official use social media to promote illegal migration into america the american accountability foundation found the employee would post

tue: movement in treasuries, interest rates are going?ers. the economy has continued to impress, the labour market remains strong, the us consumer continues to spend. you are properly going to see and outperformance with the us�*s major trading peers. so i think that differential will remain in the favour of the dollar. when you look at the rate cut odds, we were expecting to see consecutive rate cuts, now we are around 40 points, those rate cut outs are something that will drive the dollar stronger. that will drive the dollar stronger-— that will drive the dollar stronger. that will drive the dollar stronuer. ~ ., ., ., that will drive the dollar stronuer. ., ., ., ., stronger. we are almost out of time, stronger. we are almost out of time. quick _ stronger. we are almost out of time, quick question _ stronger. we are almost out of time, quick question about - time, quick question about mcdonald's, the big share price drop after this e. coli warning, how serious is it for the company? t warning, how serious is it for the company?— warnin

the 2-year treasury is well above the 4% level, you're looking at 4.05. gold around $2,760. 56, actually. it's been rising steadily. oil, $70 a barrel. gas edging lower, regular averages $3.15. and, by the way, there are well over a dozen states below $3 a gallon. diesel, the average there is $3.58. on the show today, the key state of pennsylvania shifting towards trump. vast spending in the keystone state, a total of $538 million so far. and a remarkable op-ed in the "new york times." brett stephens writes that if trump wins, the main culprit will be the liberal voices in the government, academia and media. this is a takedown of liberal politics and, yes, it's in the "new york times." wednesday, october 23rd, 2024. "varney & company" about to begin. ♪ ♪ you better lose yourself in the music, the moment, you own it. ♪ you better never let it go ♪ stuart: yes. that song is "lose yourself" with eminem. he was one of the stars campaigning for harris last night. we're going to get into that in a moment. madison alworth back with us this morning. start with tr

it isn'tjust treasury, for this government. it isn't just a treasury, for this government.t a technical treasury, for this government. it isn't just a technical accounting change that should free up extra space for around £20 billion worth of investment in major projects, though it will do that, it won't prevent the need for major tax rises at the budget on wednesday, but for the chancellor this is a reset in economic strategy that should jump—start the economy from what has been, in herwords, a jump—start the economy from what has been, in her words, a low growth, low investment loop of doom. i’zfe low investment loop of doom. i've not m low investment loop of doom. i've got my first _ low investment loop of doom. i�*e got my first budget next low investment loop of doom. i�*we got my first budget next week. comparing notes with her american counterpart on balancing the books. the chancellor is walking a new path now. rachel reeves confirming a change to how her all—important budget borrowing rules will operate. we will be changing the measure of debt, i will set out the d

. >> treasury secretary janet yellen talked about the future of the u.s. economy, focusing on competition with china, the front tax cuts, and the debate over tariffs as key issues that will impact the economy over the next few years. the discussion was hosted by "atlantic." >> good to be with you >> madam secretary, so good to be with you again. the fed yesterday made its long-awaited decision to cut interest rates. what do you make of what they did? did they go far enough? secretary ellen: i will not get into the details of their decision, but let me say that i see this as a very positive sign on with the u.s. economy is. and it has come way down in the 2% market. and meaningfully diminished. the overriding concern and military policies. and preserve the strength of the market. >> when we saw the form and participants and they will come down farther. >> there is a great deal of apprehension and management of the economy and here we are years later. an oak taylor swift has been used a lot lately. [laughter] let me ask you, are we out of the woods? [laughte

anderson is on the right track the treasury bond market agrees with them in the ten year treasury yield 3.65% just prior to the rate cut, right now it is approaching 4.10% the treasury bond market doesn't really believe that the fed will cut another 50 basis point the rest of the year is currently reflected by fed funds futures, what the fed seems to be banking on is the slowing of the economy, the weakening of the labor market that helps to maintain this disinflation very trend if we get more readings on the jobs front like we did for the month of september, then perhaps we will be lucky to get one more rate cut. cheryl: were getting september ppi 830 economists expected on the cpi prices to rise one tenth of 8% month over month 1.6% year-over-year, what expected is this a market mover i think it should be that the whole point. in the might be in the minority of the 50 basis point cut. all initial a while until left well enough alone in this season a little bit longer and it's hard not to fire until you see the whites of their eyes so to speak, i don't expect them to actually factor th

government by the treasury department and for the funneling of aiding and abetting of the illicit financingve targeted these in the united states going for perspective and israel making it very clear as it relates to hezbollah and hamas they're going to work to destroy them militarily and operationally and i spent many, many years at treasury department so i can tell you one of the key ways that you try to take down terror organizations is by going after the money. no what ther who funds the organization and how did they get their money and bank ledger going for them and these banks in beirut and for lebanon and operating for the normal financial sector and that put as red flag and banks that operate in the u.s. dollar arnold the world and operate up with these banks and i think it was a very targeted and important strike to cripple hezbollah financially if they can't get the money, then it's harder to get the weaponry and hard to pay the fighters. stuart: do you get the sense that the american administration is still restraining netanyahu's response to iran? >> i mean, i think they're cert

. >> news out of the treasury i want to interrupt the conversation and bring in our steve liesman who has that breaking news for us. >> reporter: we learned the treasury, scott, expects to borrow $546 billion in the fourth quarter of 2024, $19 billion lower than announced in july of 2024 when they put that estimate out because they had a higher cash balance, as in more money in the bank if the treasury offset by lower cash flows. now here's the forecast. $8 $823 billion in the first quarter, the largest but comes with a big cash balance they're going to keep. i'll talk about that in one more second. they borrowed $762 in the third quarter of '24. they had more in the cash balance and offset by higher net cash flows. one more thing they expect to have a cash balance, looking up these numbers here of -- i'll give it to you, scott -- $700 billion in the first quarter -- $850 billion in the first quarter of 2025 from $700 billion in the fourth quarter. they are kind of squirreling money away because there's another debt ceiling fight brewing for the first part of the year. >> it just make

and the other thing is those long-term treasury yields. we think where we are now is fine, the mid-4% range is fen. if we get to post-election and greater fiscal spending looks like it's going to be on tap given election outcomes, more fiscal spending than already anticipated, we think that could push the ten-year yield up to 5%, a level of which in the past has given the market a bit of pause. but overall we think the backdrop is quite positive if we get a pullback it probably is a buying opportunity >> i tell you what, your firm has holdings in nvidia, apple, google, meta, amazon and microsoft, of the big mega cap stocks it's not like these stocks have traded incredible into the prints except for nvidia microsoft is down 4% over the last month, not a lot of -- there's not a lot of action in meta or amazon either. it's not like they're running into these prints. maybe the bar is not as high as a result of that >> sure. and i think investors are really opening up to the fact we're going to get double digit earnings growth out of the 493 go

they're doing it in the context of treasury.t's the former am-ex chief who has the inside track on treasury, so it's not dimon. and we should point out even if dimon was offered a role or, you know, the way it's been draked to me is this: if he was offered a role by trump, he'd say no. if he was offered a role by kamala harris, he might take it. and it's a very slim might. we should point out he wants to be there for the next four years. there's a transition process going on at jpmorgan. there is no set successor for jamie dimon right now. they're not that far along in the process because it's always been thought that he's going to, you know, stay around for a few years, until he's about 70. i think he's 66 right now. but again, if he was going to get that, if he was going to be offered a job of any of the two, the it's definitely harris even though trump keeps mentioning his name. and i don't think it's going to be treasury secretary. it's going to be that job as the head of the national economic council which is, you know, a b

yields higher, the yield on the ten year treasury is at 4.03%, the two-year hit 4% earlier and right now i have it at 4.02% stock market investors don't like that, dow industrial down to 160 at the opening bell, the nasdaq down 11 110 after last week's solid gains, bitcoin $63000, 628 to be precise, oil moving up $75 a barrel with the expected action in the middle east raising the price of crude, gasoline coming down $317 for regular, gold very close to $2700 right there 2660. on the show today the catastrophic damage from hurricane helene is being revealed the word devastation is appropriate, troops are arriving for search and rescue and another hurricane is threatening florida iccat three storm name milton headed for the gulf coast serious flooding expected. it took $50 million out of her budget and spend all my grades, secretary mayorkas admits it'll be difficult to fund emergency may enter measures when milton hit is october 7, 2024. "varney & company" is about to begin. a cloudy new york, it's good to be another great week, sunshine 70 degrees and mild temperatures for another w

recently, they started calling it the treasury.ike a bank or a place to treasure valuable things. but the truth is that it was just because of the jar on the very top, where you see the urn on the top. yes, i can see it. they thought there was gold in it. _ and tell me, why is the jar full of holes? that's because of shooting. thinking there was gold in it. they must have been so disappointed. it was so disappointing. i mean, the building is absolutely wonderful and amazing, but it seems to me to have taken things from different cultures. nabataeans, because of the trade routes, travelled all over the ancient world. they left petra as traders and they came back as engineers, as architects, as astronomists. they learned a lot. so this facade has all influences from all the ancient cultures, starting from the very top. for example, in the middle between the two central columns, this was isis, the egyptian goddess. the pediment itself in the middle, it is greek, while on top of the upper angle of the pyramid, there's kind of tabular o

treasury secretary john paulson is right there.s on the stage at the economic club when donald trump gave a big economic speech, he could be the treasury secretary, he runs a huge hedge fund, financial implications so we will see how that turns out. a guy named dan gallagher could be sec chair although he's got financial considerations, general counsel for robin hood, his stock options are in the black, he's making a ton of money. these are all considerations bouncing around the. it would be a more free market white house the you have the trade specter hanging over these choices even though someone like dan gallagher is not only free-trade, trump has pushed populism and tariffs so it will be interesting to see how that push and pull works out. it may be donald trump uses tariffs as a way to seek concessions when the economic cabinet gets that. neil: you do have to get elected the first to pick out key people and cabinets, with the vice president, kamala harris is there. i don't know what's the bigger draw, you have her, president o

and this belarusian treasury of knowledge, 73 m high, can be seen even from space. almas of knowledge, as it is popularly called. the national library of belarus in the form of roma. the most unusual buildings in the world. today it is not only the richest collection of books, but also a huge multifunctional center, where high technology, ultra-modern design and unusual architecture meet. the cut diamond symbolizes the value of knowledge and the infinity of the knowable world. in front of the facade there is a bronze figure of francis scarina. the collection of the diamond of knowledge consists of. and electronic materials created in belarus and abroad in more than 80 languages. the main part of the funds is located on ten floors of the storage facility, there are 20 reading rooms. in 2005, on the instructions of the president, a center for international meetings was created in the library and... days of culture of nations are held, in the evening the facade of the library turns into a multi-colored led screen, it is more than twenty variants of color effects, which

to the national jewish fund who is also funded by the west treasury, and they must pay for the crime they have done to the arab people, they must pay for it, that's what it is, okay, so... once again, for those of you who are joining us, just now, we are receiving some live images from copenhagen and amsterdam, people taking part in worldwide rallies in support of palestine against the israeli regime, calling for immediate cease fire and halt to israeli aggressions worldwide, now these uh demonstrations come a time. when you see people, that is copenhagen, as you can see right now, we also had some pictures from berlin, other cities in germany as well as different parts of europe, such as paris and the uk are also witnessing these demonstrations marking the... grim milestone for one year since the israelis launched a genocidal war on gaza city of copenhagen you can see people. so if we still have a bruno with us, bruno, if you're still there, if you're still there, uh, tell us uh, what your impression is from these demonstrations for those viewers that have just joined us and they mi

nasdaq up several sessions in a row and seen gains there treasury market is something to keep an eye on yields have been picking up pretty substantially ten-year yield now at 422. the two-year is at 4.05. andrews, yesterday, in talking to paul turdor jones, he is worried about whoever wins the election is inflationary and he is moving away from treasury. >> he likes commodities and gold and likes the nasdaq also. >> i thought it was very strange that he almost is welcoming inflation as the only way out. out of options. >> otherwise, it's pretty extreme measures you have to take and spending cuts >> he'll be fine you know who inflation kills and so for us to handle our debt problem, we got to inflate the hell out of our -- it's always been the way that countries get out. >> talked about this forever inflate your way out of these issues. >> i guess the least of really bad options maybe. >> i think what is interesting is he talking about higher taxes on companies and individuals >> every time he has been on, he has been a big tax guy. >> he says he doesn't want any of this. >> but i thi

may not be treasury -- he can be deputy treasury.

what are you seeing here that makes it more attractive than treasuries or corporate bonds? what are you seeing? >> mortgages just represent a significant portion of the u.s. bond market. i wouldn't say we're overly enthusiastic about mortgages here. they typically would be an instrument that would play out the best if you have stable interest rates and investors can pick up carry. i think that ultimately ta tactically, the more interesting things above mortgages would be a point you enter the longer end of the treasury curve. now we're moving up to 4.4%. there have been calls for higher rates here as we move into, you know, the need for the treasury to fund itself while the fed is still not buying thereasuries. o ultimately, extending may make sense as we move along here or if the economy begins to show signs of deceleration from what has been a pretty robust economy. >> okay. so, i want to clarify. you are overweight according to the notes in mortgage backed securities and also on the 20-year. that's what you are talking about? >> yes, yes. we're going to be looking at mor

the 10 year treasury yield is 3.6%. the treasury yield on the 10 years 4%, just above 4%.is because inflation may be rising, is that the problem with rates? >> absolutely a concern. the yield had been coming down in anticipation of rate cut. we had a bigger one than we expected. the market a lot of 50 basis point cut. as soon as that happened there yields started to come back up a little bit. on top of that worries about 50 basis point cut could be inflationary and you throw in the fact we have more trouble in the middle east with the oil, that spiked crude oil prices very high compared to where we were with the rate cut and then the banking of the drum with the port strike and more and more folks got behind the fact that we may have an inflation problem. we are up to 405 because we have a cpi number up this week, 12% on the 10 year yield since they had an initial rate cut of 50 basis points. if we get through 407, that could be the next stop. i will say this. we are getting close to the high. if we get about 407, this economy can't take it. i'm from the point of view that

long-term treasuries. >> yeah.ere, but i think it's smart to look at these opportunities with the 10-year at 4% and with rate-sensitive stocks, defensive stocks being is row in valuation. so, yeah, you're right. look at long-term treasuries, the classic recession hedge. you can see it throughout history. and right now with the 10-year actually at 4.2, i mean, that's a pretty attractive the value just to ping some nuts on the side -- pick up some nuts on the side if your squirrel. and then, of course, rook at your emergency fund. understand what you're doing with cash. realize that rates are coming down, but at the same time you need that sanity fund in case a recession hits. charles: and this is interesting because right now everyone's been told, hey, make sure you have all your cash at work because you've got a heck of a bull market, you don't want to miss it. it's tough to build a full emergency fund and be fully participated in a bull market. >> yeah. so this is the gray matter that finance struggles with. you d

let's talk 10 to 12% equity performance, 10 to 15% earnings growth, 3 to 4% ten-year treasury. i believe that more money will continue to come out of cash, private equity and fixed income into equity, scott, because we have the best market in the world, the most visible market in the world and the most discernible earnings in the world and i think rotations continue to come back to the united states and that's why we're going to continue to outperform. >> court, i will give you the last quick work. >> i think this is something that you want to make sure that you are properly invested and stay diversified. there's a lot that can change. we have the election next week. we're going into the year regardless of the election where profits are expected to acce accelerate, gdp is growing, the labor market is strong. all of this is leading to a good end of the year and i think you want to make sure you're well-positioned. >> we will leave it there, everybody. dan, courtney and brian, thank you very much. we may have you back now. he was on the fence. we will have to see. >>> let's send

the yields are going up and the treasuries themselves are plunging. but an intriguing headline.omberg says they're plunging like 199 5 as traders see a soft landing. just so folks can see what this looks like. again, 91995 here and now -- 19995 here and now 2024. are you getting that message from the bond market, that this is a soft landing? >> yeah. there are really two elements that are very similar the '95. one is fed rate cuts into an expansion or soft landing, so that could a good environment for equities. certainly, yields in the longer end are going to rise as a result of that. the other though has more to do with productivity and innovation. if we dial back to '95, it's just at the same period in the internet as where we are now with a.i. and i do think that there were a number of investors looking at the potential for the internet adding productivity which eventually did and higher productivity does mean higher growth, means higher yields. the same thing could be in play now where right now the treasury market's only anticipating about a 1.5% productivity rate over the

this is treasury's largest settlement with a bank. point we just heard is this is the first bank in history to plead guilty to committing money laundering. that's a fascinating stat there. this payment overall will include $1.3 billion imposed by the financial crimes enforcement network, as well as payments to other government agencies. it will also include a three-year monitoring program for td bank. the u.s. government says in recent years, td bank just didn't automatically monitor 92% of total transaction volume, or about $18.3 trillion in transaction activity. and the government says the bank did this to keep costs down, requiring the budget not increase year over year for nearly a decade. those policies, they say, led to hundreds of millions in criminal money laundering inside the bank. all of this has hastened the departure of the ceo, who announced he would be retiring next year. spokes people for td bank did not respond to our request for comment today. a source familiar with the situation tells cnbc the violations included mo

the mood music from the treasury is of a bigger budget hole than was expected, approaching £40 billions with me now. £40 billion black hole. we have been hearing 22 billion recently, explained the difference. billion recently, explained the difference-— difference. this has not been ublicl difference. this has not been publicly referred _ difference. this has not been publicly referred to, - difference. this has not been publicly referred to, it - difference. this has not been publicly referred to, it is - publicly referred to, it is essentially 22 billion plus an account of what the treasury thinks it will take to get spending back to normal. the previous government made assumptions that this government was unrealistic about public spending and to get that back up to what is normal standard, that is what we're talking about and that would be the gap that would have to be raised by taxes because they are not allowed to borrow money for this day—to—day spending. that is what we are talking about and the consequence of all that is what we are seeing tonight, a deadline, the major measure

liz: folks, israel bonds are like us treasuries.der that they take it, they use it, and then they give it back to you with a return. a yield. so the last time you were on, danny, may 28, the two-year jubilee bond was yielding about 5.12%. with a minimum investment of $25,000. now, it's lower, so are our bonds certainly here in the united states, but because rates are coming down, but it's yielding 3.81%. where are you seeing people looking now on this yield curve for israel bonds? >> well people of course on one hand are sensitive to yields as you have mentioned and we follow the us treasuries so if the us treasuries are going down, our bonds, you know, yields are going down as well, but although that reduction in the yield as you can still see a significant demand for our bonds, for israel bonds, and i believe that it's a great reflection of the desire of so many people to continue their support for israel. it is a critical time for israel. people understand that when they buy a bond, they build a bond with israel. even if they get

the latest numbers from the treasury refunding announcement.lows, just about unchanged. likewise on the nasdaq get as for the russell, it little softer by a quarter of 1%. yields up at the front end. 4.13%. unchanged on the session now at 4.25% on the 10-year. michael: 2.8% for the third quarter is the initial estimate, just a touch below two point 9%, which was forecasted. one of the things that happened, we had a 3.1% forecast from the atlanta fed and the problem is we had that big trade report yesterday as everybody tried to bring in inventory ahead of the port strike, so that is probably subtracting from growth. we will get that number for you in a moment. personal consumption very strong. 3.7%, up from 2.8% in the second quarter. americans are still spending money. the gdp price index is quarter over quarter so that is important to the fed. 1.8% for the gdp headline index. that is down from 2.5%. we are in the ones now there. core pce on a quarter over quarter basis, down from 2.8%. the information we want to give you is the quarterly refu