treasury yield holder gain.t down pay in asian stocks as the regulatory push hits the outlook for growth. labor crunch. britain's biggest group warns consumer firms are turning pessimistic as they struggle to find staff after lockdown. the futures for the u.s., s&p 500 are pointing lower after another record. a bold call from ubs global wealth management, the cio making a prediction. you will get to 5000 on the s&p 500 by the end of 2022. let's check in on the markets. the msci asia pacific down .4%. continued concerns around the regulatory push by china and the delta variant continuing to weigh on the economy as we see a significant pick up in places like japan. down in the u.s. by over .10%. the dollar index posting modest gains ahead of that speech by jay powell. a bit of strength for the greenback. and we are focused on the korean won. the bank of korea, the first major developed bank out of asia to hike rates by 25 basis points. it was a 50-50 review. but they did hike. -- 50-50 view. but they did hike. let

treasury yields. think it is important to emphasize that the longer dated rates are really on the global market. you can see high correlations across the u.s., japan, germany, all developed market economies. these rates trade closely together. it is a common global market, low rates in germany, low rates in other major economies hold down the treasury market. i think that means for treasury yields to set much higher, back to the metals that were compensated in the 1990's. we need a different global environment. need european growth, japanese growth set higher, but those treasuries do not look as attractive as they are today with japanese investors. we need a more complete selloff in the treasury curve. guy: not quite there yet, maybe a little further on. zach, we appreciate your input. zach -- zach pandl of goldman sachs. morgan stanley could lose momentum. more on that story next. this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: it is time for the bloomberg business flash. i'm ritika gupta. reportedly cutting the pay of

global stocks hold steady in treasury yields.nvestors wait to hear from jerome powell at the virtual jackson hole gathering. they way a second term for the fed chair. plus. >> we will not forgive. we will not forget. we will hunt you down and make you pay. tom: biden vows retaliation after a pair of bombings in kabul leads does instead and complicates the already messy u.s. withdrawal. supply chain snags turning to a chronic headache. we bring you our interviews with the ceo, gm, and president of chinese ev maker -- up next let's check in on the markets. i want to show you what we are looking at today as we guerra for jay powell's speech at jackson hole. this is what it's all about. the tapering of nbs securities held by the federal reserve and treasury holdings as well. just a recap and highlight for you. you are looking at 5.3 trillion on the fed balance sheet. nbs, 2.5 trillion. it's the pace, it's the timing, and to what extent this will be sustained before there's a pause. when the rate hike cycle starts. let's check in on t

that will probably be a little bit of a risk off move and benefit treasury yields.ink treasury yields would be higher, but they are not going to go 100 basis points higher this time on taper. it is more like 30 basis points to 50 basis points, so manageable with sub two your percent tenure yields -- 2% tenure -- 10-year yields. lisa: there with me on this friday of teal to be a bit nerdy, if a federal reserve taper ends up with yields where they are now, and i am talking 10-year yields, and in the recent pronouncements, typically what we have seen is longer-term yield go down. if that is the trend, why would risk assets sell off if a lot of people justified low yields for the reason they are buying riskier security? ira: that is a good question, lisa, but a big question mark is how far will the fed ? right now they -- fred go f --ed fed go? i think there is expectation on them changing as you get further into 2022, and as those expectations of how far the fed can go because the economy may be is doing pretty well, through delta and people learn how to live with

treasury yields hold their gains.h, consumer firms are turning pessimistic as they struggle to find staff after lockdown. france's road to recovery, eight months from the presidential election. executives and politicians gather in paris. we are live from medef. anna: 15 seconds until the start of the european equity trading session. futures looking sluggish, and increasingly so after we have been heading to the start of the european trading day. the asian session has been slipping a little, further selling of tech names in china. what do we see at the start of the european trading day? tom: asia once again failing to pick up for another record. the ftse 100 down 0.2%. we have been talking about the pressures building around labor shortages, and that business lobby group talking about the lack of business sentiment. that is something investors are weighing. there was a rally, another record stateside. the pressures in china around the regulatory hurdles and technology and the real estate sector, holding investors back.

yield. today, we are at 130. all the things we are discussing, either they reinforce a treasury move, when it is behind this or thiss another leg lower in yield. which one is it? gene: what we are seeing today with the disappointment in consumer sentiment, that could retest the 112 or 1% area and that comes back to something that the fed highlighted in their statement, which is that the path of the virus will be a critical variant in the path of the economy. it is how much are we changing consumption patterns and what we thought a clear path to recovery? our research team put something together that we call the return to normal index, how close are we to 20 levels of activity across various sectors of the economy? we were at 86 sent two weeks ago. have taken a -- 86% two weeks ago. we have taken a little bit of a hit to 84%. that could affect that path. gene: -- jonathan: when you push to the treasury markets, your opinion. tony: if you would believe that the numbers would be lower spending, but if you look at the spending numbers last summer, they bottomed out at the pandemic and stayed in a 75% to 80% in the seco

ten year treasury yield closed near 1.35%. did you see bank stocks? when the yield was 1.13 last week making new lows, bank stocks held in there we have been talking about it. that's interesting you also mentioned the s&p 500 eeked out a new all-time high, which is crazy when you think about it tech did not have a great day today. we are continuing to see these rotations here the large cap levitate that makes me a little nervous with the s&p 500 up 18%, the nasdaq up 15%. something has to give. this is not going to go in a straight line into year end. >> you think this is more than just infrastructure passing, this is more of an economy is getting better sort of rotation, at least for today >> could be. listen the idea that we have linear global recovery doesn't seem likely given what delta is doing. that's why we stay here. that's why we havethese rotations. at the end of the day, listen, i said it last night, i think we will have a september that's not too different than what we had last september we can't continue to levitate like this with all the

lisa: they have been lowering their long-term expectations were how high treasury yields can go. if the fed does react the way you are talking about, that will actually dampen growth and inflation and lower the potential of long-term yields. have you also been lowering expectations for how high they can go. >> not very much. where do you think it's going to be the endpoint in terms of rate hikes? what will be the terminal rate. i still think that will be through this cycle somewhere around about 2% or two and a quarter percent. came into this year thinking the 10 year yield would ended around 2% quite a long way off at the moment. i still think that's ultimately where we get to for the 10 year. >> what's the equity reaction if that were to happen? david: i think it depends on the pace at which you see the adjustment to higher rates. if those rates are moving higher because the global economy and u.s. economy is doing very well, we are going into a world where in 2022 we are also running significantly above trend. the equity market can absorb that. we will see some volatility aroun

we are seeing some appetite for bonds and the treasury yields falling a little. it is up at 1.33, that is relative to very recent history a little higher than it has been. where are you expecting to see this? how does this play out for the end of the year? viktor: we are in the camp that bond yields will ultimately go higher, but it will be a different increase compared to what we saw in the first half of the year. this time around, the inflation expectations are probably quite anchored and maybe even come off a little bit. it will be driven by more hawkish policy. that is the different type of bull market selloff for an increasing yield. it is probably a little bit more problematic for risk assets, as well than that first inflation driven increase. anna: one of the things on president biden's to do less -- he is clearly thinking about geopolitical matters right now -- but something that he is going to have to think about soon is whether to reappoint jerome powell as fed chair another time around. we have reporting that suggests that he could do that and could no

that really raises an issue -- is there a sort of potential for treasury yields to rise? remain in this goldilocks scenario because the fed, as you said, typically creates the volatility? in this situation, they are not there they are committed to holding policy as easy as possible through the cycle. does that mean we stay in this range through the cycle? margie: yes. the fed's dual mandate, full employment and inflation around 2%, to me, you cannot reconcile the two, so therefore, how can they begin to tighten one we have 9 million people unemployed? so we will never get to 3% unemployment, so i cannot see them tightening. tom: it is amazing how this destroys the taper worry. kailey: i asked this yesterday, why was anybody surprised? had we not been having this conversation about a taper coming in the next three and half months, that it was all too likely the fed will announce those plans? yet it seemed to take the market by surprise. i am not sure what exactly changed. do you think anything has changed in terms of a taper conversation? margie: no, it ebbs and flows with

it is rational for the treasury yield to be so low. the fed eventually will hike inflation. n a good process to transfer information. [indiscernible] it is a great story. we know the yields are not sustainable in the long run. but in a few months, even if we taper, we can probably stay there for a significant amount of time. tom: 150, 160 on the 10 year. sebastien stays with us. hurricane ida swept across the u.s. gulf coast on the 16th anniversary of hurricane katrina. what timing. shattered refineries along the coast causing rising prices. this is bloomberg. ♪ tom: welcome back to the open. 10 minutes into the european trading day. futures pointing to the game. markets are holding onto gains across the region. in terms of the dax, a flat. investors are looking for catalysts after the dovish comments from the fed. global investors as well because that could change the trajectory and the timing for tapering. the ftse 100 is closed. there seems to be a lack of conviction in the markets. in terms of sequencing. politics remain in focus in germany. hurricane ida intensified over

treasury yields are back to one point 27. -- 1.27. finish on this, china has done nothing for so long now. dollar-china is about the same and that currency challenge is not responding to weaker data does not respond to retail sales or downsize a price on industrial production will step tom: it's going to be interesting to see in china is not only in the markets this morning but in our fractured international relations. richard haas is a busy monday morning because he is the center of a raging debate of the past in afghanistan. he is on the council of foreign relations. i want to get right to it and i want to get to the movement. is this tele-band the same tell a ban two? >> if anything, it's worse because now it's had a chance to regroup. it now has access to american arms and it has proven his resilience. the opposition in afghanistan is weaker than it was so it's at least as bad step there is no sign of any mellowing by the tell about -- by the taliban. tom: is the vacuum going to be filled by china with a 47 mile border constructed

equity markets are down, treasury yields higher by a basis point or two.the numbers, mike mckee. mike: bang on estimations for the overall cpi, taking the year-over-year rate headline to 5.4%. actually leaving it. there was a thought that it might drop to 5.3%. on the core it's lower than forecast. .4% was the forecast and last month it was a .9% rise. as i mentioned, the rate of change is what's going to matter here and we get a core rate of 4.3% down from 4.5% in june. taking a quick look at the components here, food is up .7%. food away from home is something people have been keeping an ion. one of the categories going up rapidly -- an eye on. one of the categories going up rapidly, food at home. energy, year-over-year basis, gasoline on the month up to .4%. we have seen a rollover in prices in terms of oil. in august we should see gasoline prices go down. used cars and trucks, a big change, up 2/10 of 1%. so, we were expecting a rollover there and we got it. apparel, up 2/10 of 1%. -- .2%. unchanged from the month before. looks like at this point we ar

it doesn't paint 1.33% treasury yield. think investors are expecting yields to move somewhat higher. i think the one thing that we're asking investors to think about or consider in their portfolio is allocating to areas of the fixed income market that will protect you for somewhat higher inflation. so tip, stip are tickers we're recommending within the fixed income space and sticking with a quality theme. if you want to gravitate into credit, qlta is another ticker which we are talking to clients about, which again ties in that theme of quality as well as the theme of inflation which we both believe are very relevant between now and the end of the year >> gargi, thank you. good to hear from you. from blackrock >>> jpmorgan downgrading nordstrom today following earnings saying the backdrop for its core consumers may be as good as it gets. we'll talk to ceo erik nordstrom about what he's seeing at the stores as thatto sck is under heavy selling pressure today we'll be right back. >>> welcome back delta airlines, the latest c

treasury is 1.7%. that is where 10 year yields should be today if you believe the fund rate. the question the market is having is, if the fed starts a tapering process too soon and becomes too aggressive and may be starts to hike rates too much too soon, then the economy will not grow as fast in the fed will not be able to hike rates enough to get to its expected terminal target of 2.5% policy rates in the future by say the end of 2025. that might only get us to a 2% terminal rates. what that tells us is a fair value for the 10 year treasury, if that is the case, if the fed hikes race too soon, is closer to 1.3%. if the fed wades and delays the taper, it allows there to be more stimulus in the economy, then tenured -- 10-year treasury yield could go to 2% by the end of this year. the whole key here is -- and this is what is counterintuitive -- the earlier the fed tapers and more aggressive they are in tapering, 10-year treasury yield's probably will not rise that much. lisa: will hold on the second. i want to underscore this. this, to me, is one of the key debates on wall str

, 10-year treasury yields, is probably a bit too pessimistic on that. we think that the comeback here in yields is in the cards when we move away from the true peak but it is rather a transition to a strong growth environment after the peak. >> at the same time it's not just the u.s. that's pessimistic. we had an entire curve falling below zero. that might with be the case for the u.s. but is this a global market fear of stagflation and does that make sense that that's what's priced in? >> well, i think to -- i think the starting point is europe. why that was not so much the economy. when we just would look at the economy, economic growth, inflation, then we would have much higher yield. it's really the supply and the demand of assets or treasuries. and don't forget the fed is still buying treasuries, despite we have a rebound in taxed income, the treasury has some money, the same is true for europe when we have stronger economic growth, you have less to do it with. issuance on the bond market, on the state bond market, is not so brisk, not as brisk as w

>> best gauge is what's going with the 10-year treasury yields you talk about many times with scott minerd others, the yields have dropped. the bond market is expressing concerns about the potential for growth right now you know, as they begin to taper, it will be very -- you'll know quite quickly through 10-year treasury yields what the impact is. i don't think it changes liquidity. what's different this time than perhaps when we tapered in the past is you have extraordinary spending on the part of congress that was also missing in the past we always had the monetary s stimulus, now we have the stimulus to deal with the drain of liquidity >> we are also talking about another $3.5 trillion potential spending plan. that's not -- and we're not talking about the one just passed by the senate this would be the next one some people think it's not going to get done or pared back, whatever the number may be, that could counter any taper, could it not we're adding trillions in spending to the american economy. debt funded, by the way, for th, probably >> yeah, i do think you are exactly right. the

is one of the threats to that view that we see higher treasury yields, and what could drive those treasuryer? we have seen recent upside but we are at 1.28% on the u.s. 10-year yield. i was looking at views that say they do not think we will see higher yields on the back of the taper because yields have not gone higher on the back of tapering. if that does not drive yields higher, what could? janet: if you look at the development in the first half of the year, you have gone significant he higher because of the economic expectations. this year, we will not see that until next year. it seems that pete growth -- peak growth, and peak inflation, we will see it as high as we have in the first half of the year. there is upside for yields given that people going back into the job market, and of normalization. that is the driver. given that, our view is very strong growth has been passed and we will see a transition, and have a strong upside from here. people think qe tapering would push yields higher, but if you look at the stimulus situation, we would see peak stimulus this year, and going forwa

lisa: but also, there's a question of we don't know treasury yields. they have continued to go down despite all of the calls for them to go up. jonathan: if i could tell you the print, and i do not have the print, the white house has the print. if i could tell you the number coming out in 19 minutes, could you tell me how this bond market would respond? lisa: absolutely not. jonathan: that's where the tension lies. yields higher by three basis points. did you say something, tom? tom: dow futures are up. [laughter] jonathan: from new york this morning, it's a beautiful morning. this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: the u.s. senate is set tomorrow to approve that $550 billion infrastructure package. it will be the largest infusion of cash aided cades before -- infusion of cash. united says employees must be vaccinated against coronavirus. united says employees must upload their injection records to a company database no later than october 25. public universities in the u.s. faced lawsuits over coronavirus vaccine mandates, according to dow jones. all suits challe

stocks decline along with treasury yields on soft u.s. manufacturing growth and lingering apply constraints. haidi: the spreading delta variant hangs over sentiments for the u.s., as a delay in vaccine milestones. 70% of adults having at least one dose. shery: investors and analysts backs shares $29 million takeover of aussie payment platform after pay. this is a picture where we are seeing you was futures gaining ground. this after the s&p 500 fell in the regular session. we saw a s&p 500 and the dow paring back earlier gains after the weaker than expected manufacturing number. we also have the 10 year yield falling to as low as 1.1%. 1.1 5%. finishing the session at the 117 level. that pressured the dollar. wti crude gaining .4%. after tumbling by the most in two weeks. we are off to a shaky start when it comes to the august month. given that we have seen a run-up in crude prices already above that $70 a barrel level. take a look at square and how they ended. it was really about this company after we saw it rally over 13% at one point.

well put >>> treasury yields on the move ahead of the annual summit rick santelli tracking the action at the cme. >> reporter: intraday right around 1:00 eastern rates dropped a bit. that's when we completed the note option, $183 billion in coupon supply. very normal. earlier in the day we saw near four decade highs on the pricing indices in second quarter gdp. if you look at one week of 10s, rates have been steadily rising into jackson hole and exactly how it turns out, i can't tell you. what i can tell you we have snugged up to the best resistance the yield high at 1.37%. it fell back down and basically resting on the 50-day moving average. if you look at a mid-july chart for tens you can see we're in the same zip code as two-week highs. if you look overseas bund yields are actually closing at five-week highs because the correlation between all sovereigns as the fed decides what it wants to do with the stimulus policy will affect all. >> thank you, rick santelli. >>> as the summit kicks off tomorrow, the optics of an early fed taper are potentially toxic. a former fed and imf econom

in that timeframe, 10 year treasury yields at a decline in yields of over a full percent. think it is a sobering reminder. even though we would expect tapering, and the fed has achieved its own threshold for that, the threshold for hiking is different. romaine: i will have to give you the last word because we are out of time. i apologize. wonderful to have you here on the program. this is bloomberg. ♪ and there you have it— -woah. wireless on the most reliable network nationwide. wow! -big deal! ...we get unlimited for just $30 bucks. sweet, but mine has 5g included. relax people, my wireless is crushing it. that's because you all have xfinity mobile with your internet. it's wireless so good, it keeps one upping itself. switch to xfinity mobile and save hundreds on your wireless bill. plus, save up to $400 when you purchase a new samsung phone or upgrade your existing phone. learn more at your local xfinity store today. so many people are overweight now and asking themselves, "why can't i lose weight?" for most, the reason is insulin resistance, and they don't even know th

treasury yield ending the year at 1.8%. was there earlier this year we thought that was a bit too soon but now we think the time is right for yields to start making their way higher again the tapering is one of many factors that we think will drive treasury yields higher we also think that the economic data in the u.s. is going to play a key role. of course, that also feeds into the fed's desire to begin tapering its asset purchases and that process will likely get under way later this year, early next year and ultimately end up leading the fed to raise interest rates >> you're not overly excited about whether it happens in the near weeks or far weeks. just the general chain of events as appropriate thanks for joining us. >>> we will have much more on the explosions ikan bul with ian bremer right after this break. stay with us which saved investors over $1.5 billion last year. that's decision tech. only from fidelity. do you have a life insurance policy you no longer need? now you can sell your policy, even a term policy, f

tapering their bond purchases by the end of the year, what with the response be in terms of 10 year treasury yields, up or down? matt: [laughter] that is the trillion dollar question. honestly, i we think they would go down. depending on what happens with the delta very over the next few weeks, but if the fed were to move early, that would potentially put us into a recession or slower growth period. i am still optimistic because i think the fed will be extremely accommodative. if they announce only something like $10 billion less or so a month, no big deal. but the idea of getting through tapering in the first half of 2022 would be a mistake, sending yields lower. lisa: brian, what is your sense? brian: a couple things you need to look at. how is the economy doing? if the economy is powering through, strong, and the fed tapers, i don't anticipate much yield impact. in fact, yields could rise a little bit. but if the economy weakens, delta becomes more of a concern, and the fed tapers, then clearly yields go lower from their. -- there. lisa: you were talking about how there are little bond purchaser

they're not expecting 10-year treasury yields to go past 1.9% this year.ng 4900 by the end of next year. what is that. that is 10, 12% upside from here. ashley: that is pretty impressive. we'll see if that pans out. susan, thanks very much. coming up the governor of florida, ron desantis blaming president biden's border policies for the covid surge in his state. take a listen. >> i can tell you whatever variants around the world they're coming across that southern border. he is not shutting down the virus. he is helping to facilitate it. ashley: all right. florida's own rick scott will be here to weigh in on that issue. but first, new york governor andrew cuomo reportedly skipped work to come up with a survival plan. my next guest says it is far past time for him to go. janice dean will be here live after this. ♪. usaa is made for the safe pilots. for mac. who can come to a stop with barely a bobble. lucia. who announces her intentions even if no one's there. and sgt moore. who leaves room for her room. with usaa safepilot, when you drive safe... ...you ca

with yields down here in germany , how far can treasury yields go?rgan, where is your up in the mix? are you just looking for a much wider spread? lisa: it's a global market and a changed central banking philosophy. we are printing money and extending the balance sheet has not led to runaway data. are the central banks going to shrink their balance sheets? they will probably go bigger. probably they will stay negative and that is what a lot of people have been coming out with whether the united states or europe. i don't see the political goal on shrinking the balance sheets. jonathan: even when the additional bond purchases finished at the central banks they will have massive balance sheets and continue to reinvest. that will only stop once they start to raise interest rates. can anybody give me a gas when you think the ecb will raise interest rates and that process of unwinding will begin? lisa: will they ever raise interest rates? this is becoming the question also in the united states because they think they will hike rates marginally. what do the

treasuries have seen their yields plummet over the last few years.y yields are the best representation of long-term interest rates when they go up, it means investors feel more confident about the future because they're expecting more demand for borrowed money when it goes down, they're expecting less demand for borrowed money four months ago the benchmark ten-year treasury had a 1.6% yield. as of today, that's fallen to below 1.3% i know these are little numbers. let me tell you, that's a gut-wrenching decline. the bond market was right. covid was making a comeback courtesy of the delta variant and the millions of americans who will not get their shots, refuse to get their shots, whatever you want to say, the worries about an overheated economy were transitory. now we have to ask ourselves where are bonds headed next and what's that mean for the stock market tonight we're going off the charts with the help of legendary larry williams, an iconic technician who has been trading stocks, futures and commodities since i was a kid. written more than a doz

yields. not only treasury bonds, corporate bond, mortgage bonds, even high-yield bonds.ue to be gained right now in the bond market. again, i think the issue with the chinese government bonds is they have higher interest rates but you also have to look at the currency and see what makes sense after you put in the currency fluctuations. shery: there have been some arguments that perhaps because of china's low correlation when it comes to these assets to the rest of the world, that it's a good hedge. could that argument work here? mark: yeah, it's not a good hedge. one of the reasons is because the chinese at the moment are going after any number of different companies and rounding them up in a way that i do not know what they are going to do next. and i am a very conservative investor and when i don't understand what any government is doing, not just china, and what they might do in the future, it gives me pause. so i am not saying that going forward in some months will be the time to reengage with investing in china, but i am saying that at the moment i do not think it i

you also have jp morgan and goldman downgrading their year and forecast for the treasury yield earlier this month. if you look across the street, strategist don't know where to go. we debate the same sort of things, where the variant will take us, what the fed will do. that is clouding the outlook for everyone. lisa: are you seeing a lack of positioning? there was a short position heading into the year. it has gotten somewhat reduced. there are still people who expect yields to go up. >> it's been interesting. there was a jp morgan client survey last week that showed client positioning was the most neutral since february. like you said, there were so many shorts coming in this year, got burned with that 50 basis point drop. where they stand now, it is hard to tell. i like to look at the tlt etf. short interest on it right now is very low, at about 5%. it was as high as 20% in february. not the case now. it feels like people are hesitant to go back to shorting bonds because it has been so painful. lisa: kind of an existential question, but what fundamental metrics do yields track most c

treasury yields. we saw them shoot up and get past that 1.3%, 200 day moving average. this on comments from the atlanta fed resident on faster tapering. he is talking about moving to taper asset purchases after another strong month. all of the focus on when that tapering timeline will really take shape. >> when you take a look at the performers, these vaccine makers, the drugmakers like moderna, beyond tech -- biontech. i think biontech was on track for one of its highest quarters we have seen. this as we get enthusiasm and expectations they will be boosters. >> no wonder they jumped as much as 18%. an interesting day when tech is not driving markets but vaccine makers. bitcoin, what is happening with those crypto amendments in the infrastructure bill? it seems that those changes were blocked. that may not bode well for the crypto industry but we will see. >> let's look at how we are setting up the start of trading. we will get into this with sophie kamaruddin. it seems like a drifting session going into the start of trading. quite a lot of digestion here in asia. drif

flattened out i think it's a tentative return to the cyclical recovery take a look at the 10-year treasury yieldr over the past year, does this seem like some kind of decisive low in the yield and maybe we kind of withstood this decline that went down towards the 110s unclear. we spent very little time. we spent very little time on the way up in that zone. it seems like people were positioned for this idea that that was going to hold, we're going higher i still think you have to have plenty to improve. what's interesting, there hasn't been a direct connection between lower treasury yields and expectations for a true economic slowdown a lot of other factors are at play semiconductors always a pretty good tell in terms of bellwether in terms of risk appetite and cyclical recovery. here you have a breakout after months and months of not much going on in the xoxx however, nvidia amd doing a lot of the work. it's a little bit of a kind of uncertain return to this idea that we're back in recovery mode despite delta, despite everything but i think you still can't deny we're still in august and sometime

that is the 10-year treasury yield. we have 1.15% as we speak.y moving higher. you're above the 39,140-dollar level as weigh speak. check robinhood again. i keep calling it the stock of the day. i think that's legitimate. it is up 37% now at 64. a few moments ago it was at 71. that is called volatility. we have the latest read on the service sector on the economy. what have you got? susan: record numbers. american economy booming. looking at a read in the month of july for non-manufacturing, which is services makes entirety of the u.s. economy, 61.1, higher than 60.5 economists forecast. again record high in july. digging through the details this is very interesting. talking about inflation, prices paid highest since september 2005. stuart: that is a positive read on that services sector but there is a warning in it about inflation. susan: yeah. stuart: that is how you summarize that. it has not had much effect on the market. the dow is down 130. nasdaq up nine or 10. now, everyone, now this. >>> surely it's time for the governor to go. andrew cu

treasury yields are holding onto gains made after jerome powell's comments at jackson hole. the 2021 peak, will they ever make it back up again? we discuss that and more with our markets live strategist who joins us next. ♪ anna: welcome back to the european market open. 52 minutes into the session. several negatives for london, but elsewhere making modest gains. we are just about holding on to the levels of treasury yields we saw in the wake of jerome powell. a downward move in yields this morning. where do you see yields heading? >> i think 10 year rates are lower and i think around one or nine is where it is indicated on my model. if you look at the terminal, traditionally toward the 10 year yield, it is now quartered around 145 basis points. the market is saying look, whatever the fed does between now and the time it is done with taper and rate hikes, the amount will not go much beyond on the key benchmark rate. there is no particular incentive to sell treasuries. we are not going to go higher anytime soon. definitely, the high of 178 looks very far from where we are the

ubs asset management expect yields on the chinese 10 year government bond to decline by at least 25 basis points in the coming three months. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> treasuriesallied on growth concerns and the spread of the delta variant. china's 10 year yield fell to the lowest in more than a year. our next guest is watching asian exports were a preview on global growth. we are -- always great having you with us. let's start with china, given the recent crackdown on different sectors, what sort of message is this sending us, especially after your meeting on where easing is going. >> i think this is compounding the credit impulse. this is pretty typical of most of the last big cycles we have seen in china where they over regulate. although that is positive in the longer term. then we will usually have a response will start to see a lot of the policy start to complain around the slowdown. they probably don't want to cut right now. it is really positive for chinese bonds right now. we think this will continue right through to the end of the year and possibly into the new year. >> are you at all concerned about those names and the ongoing drama in the corporate

we have seen treasury yields and that reopening. >> yields are a tricky situation.ou have a lot of things pushing against it with very low yields, there's a question about whether or not the economy is going to be strong enough to handle a chain. i think it is entirely possible from this standpoint. but i think the reversal of that is also under question. guy: let's introduce our guest into this. if we see delta continuing to have an effect on the u.s. economy coming only have to look at the university of data -- university of michigan data to see the effects on this. can we assume this will get pushed out and therefore we are going to have more liquidity? sarah: that's the big question. and one of the reasons you saw yields change. the question is really going to be if that will slow down. we really haven't seen that yes, or is everyone just starting to talk about the fear factor of a living with different variants. i think we are going to have to learn to live with different variant. -- variants. and that booster shots will be part of the story. kailey: so there i

and true fed model, looking at that when you think about the ratio of earnings to price minus treasury yieldscorporate bond index yield, it's actually pretty fair. a couple of hundred basis points , telling you that markets are not irrationally exuberant. perhaps yields are too low and that's the point of quantitative easing where they sit on the yield curve like a big goliath and until they get off, markets are in a happy place. lisa: that's exactly right wanted to go. goliath will get off, right? later than people expected but slower than people previously thought. but it's going to happen. bond markets shrugged and real yields went even more negative. how do you understand that? >> chairman powell said that we would get off eventually but not yet, giving markets a couple of months of runway. thinking about the calendar from the fed perspective, and on most learning they will taper at the fomc meeting. there aren't many left this year. and then you got november 3. that could happen and it coincides with the debt ceiling. it may get knocked out as well. there aren't too many opportunities le

>> i think all of that is yield is looking like they're backing up in part -- treasuries had huge inflowsse of the yield compression we got. i think people kind of are rebalancing, i don't want to be leaning too hard in one direction. it's not at that broad, but just enough to keep moving forward. >> charlie, that -- good morning. >> i'm glad you have on today, instead of past days we absolutely think this is sustainable. we think we'll have very good economic recovery. i would add to the list of things that are helping or great earnings we think they'll continue, because there has been an overhang from delta. when we get past that, and we will i'm talking to the day for the first time about $200 per share? standard & poor's earnings >> first, shares of amc turning negative it's been a volatile day of trading for that company it reported a smaller loss than expected ceo adam aaron was on "squawk on the street" earlier today, addressing how bullish analysts have viewed the stock. >> our focus is on building this company, taking it forward, improving its performance. that's exactly what we

looklook at the 10-year treasury yield, we're at 1.36% on the 10-year treasury.producer price level it is indeed running hot. market doesn't like that particularly and we have the selloff in bonds. so we're down there. bitcoin down 2,000 bucks. $44,000 that is the latest quote on bitcoin. we just got this into us from the department of health and human services. they will require the jab for more than 25,000 of their health care workers. no timeline or deadline as yet. this followings the pentagon mandate for military people. we got the latest read on mortgage rates. good morning, lauren. what have we got. lauren: 2.7% t rose on the back of strong jobs data. the first increase in six weeks. 15 year popular refinance rate, 2.15. stuart: that is for the 30 year fixed, 2.87%. extraordinary. historically that is so low. lauren: even if it went up for the first time in six weeks you can't complain about that. stuart: 2.87 is 2.87. case closed. lauren thank you very much indeed. now this. >>> illegal border crossings at a 20-year high. the administration does nothing.

the 10-year treasury yielding 1.28% this morning. market moved overnight was gold. way down there. as for cryptos, serious movement there. bitcoin at 45,400. ethereum is up. in fact it is up. crypto is up all across the board. just in to us the latest read on job openings. this is the jolts report. good morning to you. susan: good morning, stuart. stuart: what have we got? lauren: 10.1 million job openings, way more than expected. number of people who through their hands up and quit because they feel they can get a better job or getting money sitting home on their couches, that rose to 3.9 million people. this is for the month of june, almost 10.1 million job openings. more than the number of people unemployed. stuart: more job openings, more jobs available than i ever seen before i think. lauren: i want to say this is a record but i will check that. stuart: 10.1 million jobs going begging, eight million people unemployed. let's get them together. lauren, thanks very much indeed. and now this. >>> back to normal delayed. plans to come back to the office, pushed back

that was a supply shock to treasuries, which sent in the yields lower. dynamic will reverse in october when the debt ceiling gets worked out. that is something we think will resume inflation as rates go back up. we think it will be a key thing to look out -- at. alix: where do you go for safety with that? gordon: we have a buy rating on u.s. steel, on cameco, which is uranium. we think the inflation trade is alive and well. we think the temporary blip in interest rates is indeed temporary. as inflation fears reemerge, we think that tech will underperform. we think that that will be the inverse of what you want to do. rates will go up and some of the material stocks will continue to outperform this year. guy: how are you factoring in delta? gordon: i'm sorry, i did not hear. guy: what about the virus and the resurgence of the delta variant as you think about these markets? gordon: i think that if you look at the data, as hospitalizations go up, it is in countries where you have significant vaccines where and has collapsed significantly. politicians will s

shery: to your point on treasury yields rising from here, this gtv chart on the bloomberg showing thatechnicals are also supporting that. if you go above the 1.7 percent levels, the 10 year yield could be rising to 3%. does that put you in the value cap? steve: yes, we remained in the value cap. it worked out at the turn of this year to the start. the decline in the 10 year yield has been a major force of that. that has come down faster and further than we thought it would. but the big picture is still, you know, obviously, growth expectations are still pretty high. yes, we have seen data disappointing on the downside but that is just because they got way ahead of the fundamentals so that is natural, but growth next year is expected to be pretty strong. inflation is likely to be above that 2% threshold at the forecast horizon. that should put pressure on 10 year yields to move higher and that is a good environment for value to outperform in our opinion. >> how does that set up the asian credit base that has been roiled by everything from water wrong -- from a company to evergrande? ste

stocks rise to a record in treasury yields raise to a record. haidi: alibaba hotels exposing the toll on the campaign against the online sector. shery: this is the picture across wall street. we see u.s. futures muted under a little pressure at the moment. this after the s&p 500 rose to another record high. we did see stocks pressured in the early part of the sector given that new york city is asking for proof of vaccination for some facilities. the delta variant concern really pressuring the market. still, we managed to rise to another record high. for goldman china indexed seeing its worst day in about a week. proved climbing after falling two a one-week low. again, those delta variant concerns really reaching the market. take a look at some gaming companies in china. state media in china talked about the spiritual opium of games. we thought tencent take a hit, and all of these chinese avr's following, but really, it seems to be about hot money inflows. those are the areas you want to stay away from. tencent, for example, has had antitrust iss

jurisdictions that still have negative yields, and they look like they may stay negative for longer than the u.s. might, some people may be wanted to reengage in buying treasuries. 1.35 percent is not anywhere near a high yield by any stretch. relative to where we were in the not-too-distant that -- past, you got to say it is. matt: i was on vacation for a week. when i looked at the bond yield for the first time in five days wednesday morning, i felt like it was pretty high compared to what i saw the week before. i want to ask you about inflation. mohamed el-erian was out yesterday with a column saying most economists are still using both hands, one talking about inflation on the one hand, looking like it may be transitory, on the other hand, looking like there may be structural change. that was after we got cpi but before ppi. that came out at a whopping 6.2%. the street estimate was for 5.6% which was already high, but we knocked the cover off of that ball. are we getting closer to consensus on inflation? ira: i don't think so. if you look at what the market is pricing, they are pricing for inflation to be transitory. we have reasonably high inflation the nex

you know, the rationale behind that was given that we were near zero at the treasury yields, that welio is very equity-oriented we have 50% dedicated, and 25% target were -- were 25% target for private markets. to the extent that we're not at our full 25% target. i think right now we're at 16% the difference between that and the target is in s&p portfolio >> okay. thank you so much for joining us you have an impressive return. we hope you come back and give us updates as you move forward >> to hear more from top pension fund managers, you don't want to miss delivering alpha on september 29th cnbc anchors and reports will lead critical discussions on the issues in today's global economy. register today >>> shares of coin base are higher today on the back of an initiation of raymond james. closing bell will be right back. , we've grown to serve all who've honorably served. no matter their rank, or when they were in. a marine just out of basic, or a petty officer from '73. and even his kids. and their kids. usaa is made for all who've honorably served and their families. are we still ex

the flight to safety, 10 year treasury yield down to one.24%. money pouring into treasuries, that raises the price and lowers the yield. the cryptos, 47,$000, $225 for bitcoin at this moment. in florida a tourist boom. even though there's a spike in cases. governor desantis's open up policies bringing in the crowd, 30 million domestic visitors in the second quarter and that is up 6% from the same period 2019. elon musk showed us this. you are not seeing it just yet. i want the guy dancing all over the place. he showed us a person dressed up as a robot. you can almost see it. i want to see him running around. don't let that overshadow musk's discussion of artificial intelligence and how he will apply it. the fake robot makes a good visual and i promise we will get that visual shortly. "varney and company" is about to begin. to afghanistan, the state department says they've evacuated 9000 people since august 14th, six days ago, 3000 were flown out yesterday including 350 us citizens. we will hear from the president later. >> he will speak for an ho

yvonne: still a lot of questions on what this means for the direction of treasury yields. d mentioned earlier, bank of america sinking below 1% or 2%. -- thinking below 1% or 2%. people are so divided about where the next move or treasuries will be. the same goes for the s&p. we continue to see the tip on the friday session. tested the depth on the friday session. the kospi, the nikkei, new zealand, hong kong, all seeing gains of more than 1%. hsi bouncing back 2% after entering into that bear market. rishaad: it's not if anything has changed all that much from friday. the asia-pacific index went down 4% last week. it was a horror show. yvonne: is there some kind of inflection point we are missing here? we have one anymore, coming up. -- we have plenty more, coming up. this is bloomberg. ♪ (announcer) back pain hurts, and it's frustrating. you can spend thousands on drugs, doctors, devices, and mattresses, and still not get relief. now there's aerotrainer by golo, the ergonomically correct exercise breakthrough that cradles your body so you can stretch and strengthen your c

stocks rise to a record in treasury yields

i looked at a 20 day correlation between the s&p 500 financials index and the 10 year treasury yield last week at the highest reading since june of last year but go back a couple of months and you see it was negative which doesn't happen that often. tom: so they are back in line? >> exactly. you have to go back to december 2016 to see that correlation. tom: do you as a grizzled veteran look at financials as homogenous or do you partition them into big banks, regionals and the smaller banks? >> i think you have to separate to some extent and understand the different dynamics. you think about the biggest banks and they are more associated with trading revenue than the smaller ones and that tends to be more volatile. then you have the insurance companies and all the rest especially now with the likes of square and paypal out there. financials of really become a big 10 so you have to look at the pieces. there is a certain amount of value in considering them more broadly as well. tom: thank you so much for we have some breaking news with the unit -- with washington waking up to the collap

it's also about the treasury yield, and we don't think this risk is going to be sustainable. so yes. but having said that, in my world, they will have the safe haven status -- it will not go away completely in our minds. david: the bank of thailand, they are stating the obvious. they've taken steps to provide shelter to the economy there. in terms of your preference of where you want to be in the rates market, deeper very low yields -- do you prefer low yields? apart from russia. >> will apart from russia, it's already completed its monetization. but russia has already raised by 225 basis points and normalized, so that is the reason. but for the rest in terms of lower yields in markets, yes, china, korea, these markets and malaysia, they are either on course or and easing bias. very different. david: the last time we spoke, we had a bond rally, a change of stance. what's change for you guys? >> since we last spoke, we are still on china bonds but we are wary of how much stimulus is coming. it's not going to be a 108 degrees -- 180 degree turn worry -- where we see a complete

you would have to have 10-year treasury yields move towards 10% to be a head wind, in my opinion, fromst 10-year treasuries rise to about 1.6% and some clients have the view because of the delta variant and things slowdown. again, that would suggest equity prices could go a lot higher, if you think about it at the index level. >> we're at the point, based on your projections, obviously, next year earnings growth going to massively decelerate and we're talking about incremental measuring. that suggests midcycle-type environment. what does that mean, in terms of equities, what you would like to style? >> if you think all of it from a investment vat strategy, there's a reopening trade, that those stocks have come down quite sharply. tactically there's attractiveness that's in the retailers, some of the beneficiaries, hotels of -- thesis are restarting the economy. but they're in a temporary hiatus for some sectors. fundamentally it's more in the technology state the revenue growth and the margins are so extraordinary and that's not to come here and say -- but that fundamental aspect is th