. -- the trendline here is positive.the more the intelligence case supportknown, the more w we get around the world. that process is ongoing. >> at the moment if there is today in the security council a vote, do you think the u.s. will win that vote? made clear that russia's track record on serialization's is not a good one and that there are why we arence iis not pursuing that route at the moment. [indiscernible] have a short the u.s. of some kind of [indiscernible] is that still the same? >> there have been a lot of numbers flowing out there, and there is a lot interest in it. we will refrain at most times from doing a minute i minute play-by-play of what this all looks like. the trendline is positive. support continues to grow. i will not get ahead of where we are in terms of potential partners that would assist in such an action, but i would point to the trendline we have seen from public statements, including the g-20 statement. >> secretary kerry and minister avrov? >> they spoke yesterday for 40 minutes. they disc

we're falling back into a trendline support area. gris nailed it. until crude prices drop, you won't get the big relief at the pump. really right now there's too many variables. the number to watch in the contract can 280. if we get a close below 280, maybe 275, the market continues lower. right now it's on trend support. >> 280, that's the number we'llen watching for. catch more of rich and gris on the online show. we're going to have a top chartist from rbc who will be talking about gold giving us a shocking reason why gold is headed to $1,200. that's at the top of the hour, melissa. >> thank you very much, jackie deangelis. joe terranova. >> energy. >> energy. >> the one thing to be overweight right now. oil prices are going to continue to move higher. i have strong conviction regarding that. i think it's more than syria. >> it's not just syria. >> it's libya production which is cut in half from 1 million barrels per day to 500,000. it's what's going on with iraq that's losing 100,000. and you talk about the different blends. gasoline is going to

if you take on the assumptions about their trendline, in the next 12 to 18 months they could hit milestones which could make the insurance strategy or israeli military action more likely. whether that would be breakout oracity in uranium enriching because their activity to become live and the moment before could create an intense time. we don't have a lot of time. case assumption we should benchmark our diplomatic schedule to that. i think that a bigger deal is much more likely to be implemented by the united states. i don't see congress substantially waiving sanctions for small deal. in fact the probability is zero. it's more likely they would increase sanctions if they could in the face of a small deal. they would frame it as intransigence by the iranians and use it as a reason to increase sanctions. -- i't see any product don't see any prospect of congo styling back sanctions unless there is a big deal. offer of ak the bigger deal gives rouhani something to use to make the claim that he is changed the contours of the conversation and has shifted its. that is something that is important f

avoids the resurgence of economic growth for we say pick up and a resumption of the very positive trendline. as you know we saw significant allges from a fiscal perspective this chart basically shows the period 1950-2008 that we ran a deficit in terms of, the deficit to gdp ratio of about 1.8% were outlays exceeded receipts. the 2009-12 period, that rose to 8.7% of gdp. and the omb forecast 2018 is that it will fall to 3.5 but that still double the pace from 1950-2008. that's going to be discussed, an aspect of that will be discussed over the next month. in fact, maybe the next two weeks, which relates to the debt ceiling. as you will see in our surveys of consumers in just a moment, the consumers do not like that discussion. to my point about consumers not yet being robust and consumption not being up, of course one of the things that happened prior to the crisis with savings essentially went to zero for a couple of quarters. this chart kind of averages over that time to read it, but you can see the savings rate has come back up that it's not yet near the long-term trend. and if consumers

issue then becomes one might a hit that threshold and under some worst-case scenarios on current trendlines, they might hit it sometime in 2014. the issue is not whether a ran there for in 2014 will necessarily make the decision to -- for nuclear weapons. the probability is that they won't, but they might. the issue is more from a u.s. base. this may become the last moment at which the intelligence community could come with high confidence in the know would make move towards nuclear weapons. if we lose the ability to detect when they would move, the ability to prevent nuclear weapons goes down dramatically in the military option is off the table. in my mind, this is very much a decision point for us. this is about when is the last time -- when we know we've exhausted diplomacy? some people don't agree with that. if my argument is right and where david is right for me put that star in the calendar and cebit 2014, whatever your assessment as and say that the amount of time i have to get a diplomatic deal. that means you have 12 or 18 months. let's get on with it. >> or other steps that would