having said that i have the trendline test and it goes like this. take some outcome that is reasonably well measured that you want to achieve in the number of industrial accidents. i've used one that's a classic is highway deaths per 100 miles. the trendline back as many years as you can and this would be before and after a major regulatory intervention then look at where it occurred and try to tell me that it gets better at a steeper rate and here is my proposition. i can produce dozens of trendlines in which things are getting better in a classic case but then something like the 55 per mile speed limit you have this steep reduction that continued to fly them out so the first statement is incorrectly you can take some things like the content of certain contaminants in the air. that is fairly small. >> host: it would be a good debate to have because i'm sitting here thinking of my own examples which go in a different direction than yours. i was just thinking about social security. >> guest: the reason i introduced that in the book is because of it d

i have what i call the trendlines test and it goes like this take some outcome that is recently well measured, and outcome you want to achieve, mortality or property reduction, the number of industrial accidents, i will use one that is a classic is highway deaths per 100 million miles. here's the thing, plop that trend line as far back as you can and you should be at it. that covers before and after a written major regulatory intervention and show me, look at where the intervention occurred and try to tell me did the good thing that was happening before get better at a steeper rate? here's my proposition, i can produce dozens of trendlines in which things were getting better on highway fatality is a classic case, and regulation came in, first you can't see an improvement but then the 55-mile per hour speed limit was a huge regulatory in the 1970s and it flattened out. so my first statement is empirically you can take some things like certain contaminants in the air and you can show me a trendline in the air and say after the epa came and it got a lot better. i would would say that's

here's the thing, that trendline back as many years as you can and does covers before and after and majorregulatory intervention. and then look at where the intervention occurred and try to tell me if did the good thing is happening to forget that are at a steeper rate and here's my proposition. i can produce dozens of trendlines in which things are getting better and it's a classic case and regulation came in. something like the 55-mile per hour speed limit there's a huge regulatory intervention. you have a steep reduction was flattening out and continue to flatten out some eye for statement is empirically you can take some things like certain contaminants in the air and you can show me a trendline. after the epa came and they got a lot done. that's a fairly small step. >> host: it's an important debate to have you no because i'm sitting here thinking up my own example which probably would go on a different direction than yours but i think it's important. it was just thinking about social security. social security again you don't object to social security. >> guest: the reason i introduc

trendline house for the past seven presidents all attended president clinton h. w. zero, other famous prince william's oprah and gingerly pulled the party all left-handed a new season brings a new look. a chance to try something different. this summer, challenge your preconceptions and experience a cadillac for yourself. take advantage of our summer offers. get this low mileage lease on select ats models, in stock the longest, for around 269 per month. (seagulls crying) what do we got? jim gulbrand, c.e.o. and founder of the software company gaia matrix, was reported missing by his live-in brother yesterday. local p.d. responded to the call, but they didn't check the boat until this morning. they found blood on the deck, but no sign of a body. (lisbon) why is it ours? the marina is privately owned, on lease by the city of sausalito. it was local p.d.'s decision whether or not to take the case. mm, a high-profile missing persons case. i wonder why they wouldn't take that. (rigsby coughing)

the trendline will not be turned around for the next couple of weeks.his have any do you believe, on federal interest-rate policy? nicholas: we don't think so. this is indicative of the problematic global environment, but we do not think this will affect the rate hike at the end of this year. pimm: thank you for joining me, , joining mesonery from washington, d.c. coming up on the bloomberg market day -- should you fear the reaper? does the death cross mean and should you care? ♪ pimm: welcome back to the bloomberg market day. i am pimm fox. they call it the death cross and it's what technicians have been talking about a lot over the past few days. it to talk about what it is an possible applications, our senior markets correspondent julie hyman. the death cross, as it is called -- it sounds very dire, doesn't? it is essentially when you have two moving averages crossing. this is the 50-day moving average. this is the 200-day moving average. short-term momentum indicator and a longer-term moving indicator. when the short-term causes the long-term -- tha

is injuring --at if not a recession -- been a very meaningful slowdown, where trendline growth in chinaead of being between eight and 12 -- a tweet a percent of 12% will be in the neighborhood of 4%. at the present time we aren't growing at all if you look at sales,at smart watch industrial production and export. we have a meaningful slowdown, and in the meantime, the average p.e. of stocks is still very high. the indices have a lower p.e. because of the banks but the banks have their own problems. my stance is that the chinese economy, which was the driver of --bal growth after 2000 don't forget, china consumed 5% of industrial commodities in 1990, 12% of global commodities in 2000, and now close to 50% -- that has a huge impact on the world, it was what was producing whatrces, and we know happened to the economies of brazil and other resource producers. -- is 4% your growth estimate, then, for china this year, marc? what effect you to commodity crises? well, it depends which growth numbers you mean. the ones published by the government will be 7.8% or something like that. none of the

it is more a difficult to get information about the trendlines land the hardest part for me about writing this book is believe it or not three times longer than when i first spanish jedi wanted to put it every bizarre real, every funny story and whenever i could remember and wanted to share and the publisher said you have to cut two-thirds of the book so i worked hard to keep the combination of seriousness but also the human side. as i traveled around the world. >> it does seem you are free to speak your mind these days. >> i think that is true with some of the reactions we have had the last few days. [laughter] i say in the book a wonderful love of experience because i am totally done to be really careful what to say because some believe may think this instead of that. it seems a lot easier to put it out there and hope people get used to whip. if you agree or not to know what i feel and where i am coming from. i believe that it is missing in the government dialogue and you may be associated in some way with the government and apolitical dialogue. there is so many issues internationally a

what we are seeing steadily the trendline is more and more americans question her trust worthiness, questioner or not she's hiding something. as a result, you see bernie sanders bleeding in the pohe -- leading in the polls. the clinton campaign has done two things in the beginning. they tried to demonize anyone who was a critic, and then tried to distract. look at the polls. americans care about this. >> margie, i just spoke with donald trump. he said he would be hillary clinton's largest nightmare. who do you think she would least like to face? >> i don't know. i think right now you have a field that's having a hard time getting traction. you have donald trump leading, just a sign of how unhappy people are with the field, the fact that something has no experience, a former democrat who says completely outrageous things about women, recently, regularly, is leading the field just shows how lackluster the field currently is. >> and a socialist leading the democrat field in one state. so i'm actually surprised that -- i think most of the democrats are worried about marco rubio. hillary clinton

once they see important trendlines broken. you see additional selling pressure on indices dragging everything down and that creates opportunities. >> i can answer the airline question simply. first six months they had had profits of $6.8 billion. they're adding capacity. bought a ticket for my mom to come here after labor day, round trip, 195 bucks. that is a competitive fare. dagen: that will be good news. give government off their backs, they were talking about antitrust, collusion on capacity. >> bad news they're shaming people who buy cheap tickets, can no longer pick your seat. get it when you check in if you take lowest fare. wind up in the back by the bathrooms probably middle role. dagen: excellent. nicole, get in here. john pointed out on "mornings with maria," look to last fall, 9.8% loss from peak to trough on s&p 500 during the ebola scare he. we have come close to correction before. >> i'm keeping a keen eye on that watching that number. for the dow that would be 16,481. so not write at correction mode that would

united nations security council to be affected, it has to be more representative of all the various trendlines that have occurred over the last several decades. one thing i will say about the united nations. everybody wants a seat at the table but sometimes people do not want the responsibilities of having a seat at the table. that is happening even now. one thing i have learned both in my personal and political lives is that if you want more authority, you also have to be more responsible. you cannot wear the crown if you cannot bear the cross. often times, in the united nations, which i am very committed to, and the agency there do a lot of really critical and important work but when it comes to, who will actually step up and contribute to peacekeeping? who will actually write a check when it comes to making sure we are dealing with the ebola crisis? who is going to show leadership in tackling climate change? are you willing to speak out on issues, even when it contradicts your own interests? or when it is politically hard? or when it is uncomfortable? if you are not willing to do those thin

whole life in fire -- higher ed trying to change these china grentech and that is why i thought -- trendlines and that is why i found my slice of heaven in north carolina because i was able to come to a university doing this in such a strong way. 14 times kiplinger named north carolina the best value. the "new york times" ranked north carolina the third most economically diverse and to be above -- on the list you had to have graduation rates above 70%. hours are much higher than that. of the universities educate 70% of the students in america. i am proud of what we account pushed, i will you some examples, but that does not mean it is all right. we have a long ways to go. how did carolina get here -- in a way, we have to almost go back to 1789. when carolina began as a great experiment -- it came out of the revolutionary war. it was an idea that we are going to have freedom, we had better have education. it was founded at the same time we had our first president inaugurated, and it said we are going to get education to improve the life of north carolinians at the lowest price correctable. --

wrong, and a system that is entering not a recession, then at least a very meaningful slowdown where trendlinewth and said being between 8% and 12% will be somewhere in the neighborhood of 4%, my belief is that the present time is not growing at all if you look at car sales, or smart watch sales, and industrial production. so, we have a meaningful slowdown. in the meantime, the average of chinese stocks is still very high. industries have it lower because of the banks. they had their own problems. my sense is that the chinese economy, which was the driver of global growth after 2000, they consume 5% of industrial command in the 1990's, 12% of global 2000,ities in the year now close to 50%. that has a huge impact on the world, especially the world producing resources. we know what happened to the economies of brazil, and other resource producers. >> anna: is 4% growth your estimate for china this year? is that what you think the growth number will land? if so, what does that do to commodity prices? marc: it depends which growth numbers you mean. the ones published by the government will be 7.8%

watch are the facts or the numbers or the trendline for crime in america right now? >> interesting, a few years ago there was a poll of the american public to ask do you believe more or less people are coming into our country than 10 years ago? 55 percent said more when it is far less. because we have invested so much as a nation and in our government with borg on the dash border security, the border patrol is now the most fun it has ever been -- funded it has ever ben. of the total attendance to cross the border have gone down to dramatically. that is the best indicator we have. a the high was 2000 at 1.6 million. i am on a mission to put the facts out there then it has been down around 450,000. this year it was considerably less than that the current pace continues the lowest number since the early '70s. with total apprehensions on the southern border. >> also because the economy is improving. >> that is correct because apprehensions correlate to how the economy is doing if it gets better more people want to come here. so no apprehensions are going down. at the sam

what are the facts about that wax what are the numbers and what are the trendlines about undocumentedmigrants and crime in america right now? >> interesting fact is a few years ago you took it whole of the american public and asked do you believe that more or less people are coming into our country illegal then 10 years ago? 55% two years ago said more when in fact it's far less. because we have invested so much as a nation, as the government and border security over the last 15 years, we have got more fans and we have got more technology. chief fisher has way more people. the border patrol is the most funded it's ever been that our nations history. apprehension on the southern border which are an indicator of total attempts across the border have gone down dramatically. >> is that the best indicator? >> that's the best indicator we have of total attempts. there was 1.6 million i'm on a mission to put these facts out there paying over the last several years it's been down around 450,000. this year is considerably less than it was last year and at the if the current pace continues this

what are the numbers, what are the trendlines about undocumented immigrants and crime in america rightnow? secretary johnson: interesting fact is a few years ago pew took a poll of the american public and asked, do you believe more or less people are coming into our country illegally than 10 years ago? 55% said more when in fact, it is far less. because we have invested so much as a nation, as a government. we have more technology. chief fisher has more people. the border patrol is the most funded it has ever been in our nation's history. apprehension on the southern border, which are an indicator of total attempts to cross the border, have gone down to radically -- >> is that the best indicator? secretary johnson: that is the best indicator we have of total attempt to cross the border. the high was 1.6 million. i am on a mission to put these facts out there. over the last several years, it has been down around 400,000. this year, considerably less than it was last year. if the current trend continues this year will be the lowest since the early 1970's. that is a good thing. >> that st

whole life in fire -- higher ed trying to change these china grentech and that is why i thought -- trendlines and that is why i found my slice of heaven in north carolina because i was able to come to a university doing this in such a strong way. 14 times kiplinger named north carolina the best value. the "new york times" ranked north carolina the third most economically diverse and to be above -- on the list you had to have graduation rates above 70%. hours are much higher than that. of the universities educate 70% of the students in america. i am proud of what we account pushed, i will you some examples, but that does not mean it is all right. we have a long ways to go. how did carolina get here -- in a way, we have to almost go back to 1789. when carolina began as a great experiment -- it came out of the revolutionary war. it was an idea that we are going to have freedom, we had better have education. it was founded at the same time we had our first president inaugurated, and it said we are going to get education to improve the life of north carolinians at the lowest price correctable. --

at the geometric composite and 1700 stocks, a much better view of the stock index, and we're on a trendline2009. if we go much lower than we are now, yes, we will then be into a bear market and whoever would have thought we could have our stocks at all-time highs. do you feel the economy is at an all-time high? it's been fed induced, but i think it's healthy. the problem is there are a lot of trieders that haven't seen us down 10% in the trading career and it will be a good thing in the long run. stuart: we here you. we're down 159, 160 points and every single one of the 30 stocks on the dow industrials are in the red, that means they're down. every single one of them. netflix, apple, facebook, amazon, they are the big names and we talk about the big names every single day because they have led this market up. all of them got beaten up yesterday. here is how they are trading right now at the opening bell this friday morning. we're all down again. some of them significant losses. all of them are down. now, john, i want to go through those one a the a time. first of all, netflix, down another

it has to be more representative of all the various trendlines that have occurred over the last severaldecades. one thing i will say about the united nations, everybody wants a seat at the table but sometimes people don't want the responsibilities of having a seat at the table, and that's happening even now. and the one thing that i've learned both in my personal life and in my political life is that if you want more authority, then you also have to be more responsible. you can't wear the crown if you can't bare the cross. often times in the united nations, which i'm very committed to, and the agencies do very critical important work, but when it comes, okay who recollects is going to actually step up and contribute the peace-keeping, who is going to write a check to making sure that we're dealing with the ebola crisis, who is going to show leadership in climate changes, are you willing to speak out on issues even when it contradicts your own interest or when it's political hard or when it's uncomfortable, if you're not willing to do those things, this is not just something where, okay,