we look at polling they are snapshots in times and look at trendlines. trendlines are undisputedly going in donald trump's direction. this race is not tightening. it is going towards donald trump. national polls have been saying that for a few days now but, the battleground states are even saying that. so look, if you project out, based upon these trendlines, look, trump wins in november. that is what the polls are telling us. liz: things can change too. i want to say, you never know. changes moment by moment on this one. it's a historic election that being said, we weren't even joking earlier, you guys. we have the twitterverse but more importantly hacked emails. d.c. hacks, have ties to the russians. hacked colin powell, former secretary of state's email. we can put some of these up. i don't know, is this a draw or a win or a loss for hillary clinton? this one looks like a loss for her. i told her how i was using my personal computer for unclassified emails. i said nothing about servers, basement, domains, clinton foundation, government employees. then

ae trendline that might be significant.mberg markets. .hat did you miss is next this is bloomberg. ♪ scarlet: we are moments away from the closing bell. i am scarlet fu. joel: i am joe weisenthal. matt: and i am matt miller. scarlet: u.s. stocks rebounding after the biggest rout since june wiped out about $5 billion from equities. joe: but the question is, what did you miss? before thee calm storm. the lead up to next week week's fomc meeting. is the quest for transparency leading to too much turbulence in the market? joe: plus, we have the charts you can't miss. and if you want know-how donald isdoing, all you need to do check the mexican peso. we will check how these assets are linked. thelet: we begin with markets. selloff. what selloff? the dow up by better

bridges and a lot more to american right but and how to a limited sense also applies project started trendline it was happening all over the country more than 65 law-enforcement agencies in 23 states have gotten into an. >>grant lodes: it would do lemonade stands as have police involvement it's really interested community 25¢ a cup and a crisis experience for kids and police also all across the country. . >>reporter: down to the bay bridge in san francisco airport petaluma just school was out will continue to see warm temperatures as you go to the rest tonight a few clouds we will see a little close to drizzle. >>reporter: pettifog expected to go to the rest of this evening you see a lot of sunshine tore the afternoon a few clouds to start during both morning saturday and sunday 66 degrees by two and 4:00 p.m. comfortable conditions for san mateo closer to san jose will warm up and expect the low 70's for your 2:00 and 4:00 we will see a cold start to the morning to much install office 56 degrees to get pretty close to 80 degrees if you're closer to santa rosa is a little bit warmer in the low

and work on your reducing is no cost and batten down the hatches that i think next year if we have trendline are right now, yeah thanks bob rich same type of tory think in generally good all price in this idea of a one big push lower, 3.08 in corn is what we're talking about 8.88 in nov soybeans, so we're still bearish shortterm. but after this point, especially on the oil seed with two years in a row declining stocks to use on a world basis actually, i'm going to bet that soybeans will be the ones which leads us higher in 2017. for right now though i certainly work on pricing around three fty thank you both, stay with us john phipps joins us when we last week, case i-h rolled out a concept tractor that's autonomous... no cab, sleek look, just walking by you thought you were taking a peak ce fiction fans on our farm, but the recent press coverage of an autonomous concept tractor by cnh became a hot topic on our farm recently. i don't think we were the only farmers to take notice. there have been self-driving tractor systems for a few years, but until you see a tractor without a cab, i don't

you can see the red trendline going down. equities expense ratio is now 0.7% versus 0.9% in 2010.stion is, is this enough, because even after these slides, these mutual find that mutual fund fees are higher -- these mutual fund fees are higher. they have a long way to go. joe: it is extraordinary -- what will turn this around -- there is an endless sucking sound of fees. scarlet: and how to make up for it. joe: the industry wants to sell etf that do more stuff, high beta -- but it is hard to imagine that trend reversing anytime soon. matt: unless you get some of that is extraordinarily talented, right? joe: individuals will do fine. but overall -- i am looking at a forecast for european stocks. for the first time in a while, strategists have slightly up the outlook for the stoxx 600, the big and asked. the euro -- index. the euro is up. the market has blocked -- they usuallynd follow the strategists. isre is one that thinks it quicker to ease than a little while ago. there is also talk of physical expansion, -- fiscal expansion, and the loosening of handcuffs that prevent governme

what is starting to see signs of a breakout, the trendline, could be significant.index has hit it a couple of times and is hovering around there right now. keep an eye on this chart. 3796. watch it every day to see if it breaks out. a be the commodity comeback -- maybe the commodity comeback story has further to go. scarlet: it has been holding for quite a while now. coming up, morgan stanley chief equity strategist adam parker joins us. this is bloomberg. ♪ mark: let's get first word news. hillary clinton and donald trump square off tonight in the first of the presidential debates. in a new bloomberg politics national survey, they are tied in a two-way race. the poll as the candidates each with 46% of the vote. when third-party candidates are included, trump leads. tonight'spredictions debate at popular university in new york could be the most watched presidential debate ever. you can see it all here on bloomberg tv at 8:30 p.m. new york time. it will include 30 minute pre-and post debate shows. plus, twitter will livestream the bloomberg broadcast. next week, it

that the trendline dprk,nese actionk against liberation and the trendline of their cooperation with the international community generally through the u.n. and with united states and bilateral basis is improving. rubio. >> the recent study by the center called in china shadow. basically it is clear from this report that china -- allowed to conduct 532 my dollars in trade volume. the report identified -- you discussed this ancient against one. why did treasury only designate one of the six companies? we are actively looking at all possible targets. i will not speak for treasury and its individual decisions. in my experience, treasury is both effective and aggressive and identify targets and pursuing them. have sufficient evidence to me treasuries legal threshold. i will tell you that we are in the mode of gathering information and will go with the information texas. takesre the information us. i don't want to talk about a specific company and specific designation in the session. >> why? they are named. everyone knows who the companies are. it is on a mister. -- mystery. >> as a general ru

. >> if you look at any trendline hillary clinton is on the he has done exactly what he is needed to do. he has been on message and motivating people and acting like a leader he's been talking about the issues that are the most important to people been no she is on the decline and he is i was tempted to but it's been dismissed by the national liberal media. what agree, couple of things there is point about the electoral college i because pennsylvania sometimes disappoints but surrogates and mrs. clinton is having trouble in the president bill clinton. some the principle surrogate, that is president obama, had been doing pretty well. right now and it may be because looks like he is losing his popularity rapidly. >> there's no question. when we have heard them on immigration. he is not capturing he being president obama. right now people want leadership. people are afraid and they want to hear reassurances and plans about immigration. they that they are going to be safe and you get the last word. who is going wasn't any guys like romney and some of these other do you think? >> donald t

the s&p 500 sent to me by alpine woods capital, a way of looking at trends and trendlines and moving averages. on this chart, the s&p is the white line you see, and then these faint blue lines. a blue halo around the white lines. and these redlines. the blue lines are short-term moving averages, like one week and two week and five week, and the red lines are long, slow moving averages like five-year moving averages, two-year moving averages. youe says, if you watch, if , when the blue moving averages, the short-term ones are fallen below the red ones, which we are not actually that close to happening, that is a sign, it happened in 2008, can be a sign of a major turnaround. if you have a bloomberg, check it out. 3771. this is basically aggregating a bunch of averages, the slow and the fast, to see the general trend. scarlet: otherwise, you are cherry picking. joe: exactly. matt: that is a chart that looks really good on the terminal. i recommend checking it out. 3771. i want to show you another chart about correlation, and how strongly correlated we are in asset classes. looking at e

>> if you're donald trump, you like the trendline of this race, you like it's coming your way. if you look at this map, we'll start with this one. pretty simple. donald trump has to turn some of this blue, this is the obama/romney race, has to turn several of these blue states to red. at the moment, the only one he can claim a lead in is iowa. only six electoral votes. all the big ones, hillary clinton. they may be small leads but hillary clinton has a lead right now. so anderson, as we look at a very tightening national race, whouts a doubt, if you looked at this map, even if hillary clinton lost one, two, three, four five of these tossups, which include ohio, north carolina, florida, we have it right now if the election were today she would win the 273 electoral votes. donald trump, the race is improving but at the state by state level he has business to do. >> so if you had to pick one state to watch, what would it be? >> the state where hillary clinton was today. the state of florida. why? because it's the biggest prize. can i give you a path of donald trump winning without

day, last three days, the memo they put out was very defensive they see where the trendlines.son they talk about how many offices they opened because their ground game is insufficient and not superior. fact of the matter and president an mrs. obama getting out there to motivate the base. they have enthusiasm problem with african-americans, with hispanics, with millenials. they're not turning out anywhere near they were thought for obama. they have offices but they don't have voter contact we do. we've been doing this four years. we have over 6,000 people spread across battle ground states. melissa: every time i turn on tv, hammered, hammered with negative trump ads. they're spending a ton of money. >> $150 million. melissa: doesn't trump have to answer back. >> he has new one. new one launching right now movement that talks about different kind of person running for office. his success as business person how he makes america great and policies are not same old washington cookie cutter answers. he will be answers more. after 150 million bucks of negative ads against him, he is

can increase the support funding it will help happen faster if we can get more airplanes but the trendline is up slightly. >> one thing i saw at cherry point, is that if you are where the rubber hits the road and you see these repair operations in the way that it works they can go so far was certain repairs and then they're either waiting for parts are relying on some of the part of the supply chain to finish the repair. be me a plane second probably be ready to go but for changes in some of the processes and other things that we may do to provide you with the flexibility to do it. i know that has to do with funding and the accounts that have been depleted over time. we have got to shed light on that as we go into planning for next year. general millie, you made a comment about where mortgaging our future readiness to be ready today. we are creating a debt. would you mind getting into specific examples of what that looks like? >> specifically with respect to the budget over many years we have undercut or reduced rsn to t and r&d parts in the modernization accounts. that part of the budget

connell: what you say the political question with trendlines in donald trump's direction which is obvioushe said the political connection to shore up your base which are not ringing in the new voters to draw you close the push you over the top. >> i don't necessarily believe that. he didn't come out and say something or do something. he's been very clear about the need to secure the border, create a deterrence for future immigration and make sure we do what the folks illegally. he did all of that last night. he went into more detail. i don't know that i would remark on the hard-line as much as consistent. connell: i told you wanted to talk about data and analytics. let me ask you a question and get to these key states. a report that the rnc told eric trump, donald trump sign that things are grim in the electoral college. >> not true at all. we went through state-by-state, gave a briefing. i don't think there's anything different than what our data suggest, which is the race is tightening and i think we understand this is going to be a crucial 68 days in the election. there's nothing diffe

we can move around that trendline quarter to quarter, but that is where we are stuck.ht now, there are warning signs out there. alix: in the beginning of the year, defensives is where you want to be. those stocks got volatile. we saw a rotation in the last few weeks. does that maintain, or are we due for another switch? if you are concerned as i am about potentially negative overngs estimate revisions the next couple of quarters, and if you are concerned about slowing economic growth, i would recommend becoming more defensive even if some of those pe's remain high, those earnings are more likely to be achieved than those cyclical company earnings and cyclical stocks can really hurt you when they miss earnings. alix: does this not worry you over the last few weeks? >> not really. the backup in yields is so minute. december, the ten-year treasury was 2.3%. today it is 1.7%. in the year after the fed raised rates, the ten-year rate has gone down. i don't see any further upward pressure on those rates anytime soon. david: we look forward to these boj at fat decisions tomor