if he wins the election and that's triggered losses in the putting further pressure on the turkish central bank to raise rates. and today's meeting off the turkish central bank comes only two weeks after an emergency interest rate hike so a clear indication that these are difficult times for the turkish economy a growing number of foreign investors are pulling their capital out of the country since the beginning of the year the lira has shed twenty percent of its value against the u.s. dollar is a major foreign companies are simply afraid to invest in turkey and its falling currency is a huge problem turkish firms have foreign currency debts totaling over two hundred twenty billion dollars and the weak makes it more difficult to repay the loans to make matters even more interesting among the lenders include the lenders include european banks including italy and italian banks and. yeltsin professor of international economics at constance university of applied science what insolvency off turkish debt has could mean for the e.u. . it's italy it's spain and these are exactly the countries which hav

if he lets the turkish central bank do its job without interfering then we will have confidence by investors to get that money back into turkey if he starts meddling with the activities of the central bank we will continue to see these exact same problems after the election ok so not a lot of trust there this is basically what it boils down to our get us breaking down the numbers for us giving us the economic situation within turkey thank you so much. authorities in guatemala have today suspended search and rescue efforts in the wake of sunday's all chemical reaction they say that rainy weather and the hot volcanic material blanketing the area are making it impossible to keep up the search for survivors at least one hundred people are dead with close to two hundred still missing despite the efforts of emergency workers up until now. clearing the rubble after disaster struck for days crews worked tirelessly to find and remove bodies buried under volcanic ash it's been a grim task and dangerous too dangerous the official search has now been suspended . inside for parts of a squint

he wins the elections that driven that's driven losses in the lira and put pressure on the turkish central bank to raise rates well today's meeting of the turkish central bank comes only two weeks after an emergency interest rate hike a clear indication that these are difficult economic times every number of foreign investors are pulling their capital out of the countries since the beginning of the year the lira has shed twenty percent of its value against the u.s. dollar some major foreign companies have increasing reservations against investing in turkey turkish firms have foreign currency debts of more than two hundred twenty billion dollars the weak lira makes it more difficult to repay those loans a little earlier we spoke to economist yeltsin addle he things everyone in europe should be very worried about what happens in turkey because the euro zone's most in stable country is heavily in exposed in turkey. this is a very important aspect in italy it's spain and these are exactly the countries which have been going through a very difficult financial period and the central bank in europe ha

alix: the turkish central bank hiked rates.y raised the one-week repo lira125 basis points, the jumping almost 2%. is the us from boston ubs head of global markets equity strategy. he has been underway turkish equities, but has upgraded other emerging markets where he is still a bull. let's start on turkey. hike in may,oints now 125 basis points, is it enough to stem the slide of the lira? >> a lot of this depends on the dollar. we think in the short-term it will help stem the tide on the falling lira. it looks like the central bank is trying to regain control of monetary policy or reassure the markets it is in control of monetary policy, but it continues to be a weak story fundamentally. they have a large current account deficit. you have the election coming up. i think it is a temporary respite, but a lot depends on where the dollar goes. alix: if you look at some of the other asset class, bond yields are at record highs. at what point is there an attractive enough yield to be compensated for the risk? >> it is a fair point.

well the turkish central bank has meanwhile raised interest rates to seventeen point seven five percent the move provoked a shop jump in the value of the turkish currency the lira and it comes less than three weeks ahead of the country's presidential and parliamentary elections the interest rate hike off over one percentage point had been widely expected as data showed this week turkish inflation hit a six month high last month president recha tied as the one announced his intention to exert more control over economic policy if he wins the election and that's driven losses in the lira putting further pressure on the turkish central bank to race wraiths and today's central banks decision comes only two weeks after an emergency interest rate hike a growing number of foreign investors are pulling their capital out of turkey since the beginning of the year the lira has shed twenty percent of its value against the u.s. dollar is a major foreign companies are afraid to invest in turkey and its foreign currency is a huge problem turkish firms have foreign currency debt totaling over two hundre

time but of course it doesn't help right now and the interesting thing is a return that the turkish central bank is knitting today only two weeks after an emergency interest rate hike so these definitely are difficult times for the turkish economy a growing number of foreign investors are pulling their capital out off turkey since the beginning of the year the lira has shed twenty percent of its value against the u.s. dollar some major foreign companies are simply afraid to invest in turkey and its foreign currency is a huge problem turkish firms a foreign currency debt totaling over two hundred twenty billion dollars and the weak era makes it more difficult to repay the loans so a lot to think about for the members of the turkish central bank today earlier i asked and soon professor of international economics at constance university of applied science what action he believes the bank will take. well the meeting is definitely very decisive today because turkey is confronted with a choice either the central bank today clearly indicates it is going to tackle the weekly euro and inflation in order

out with a hot office and the latest on the country's economic uncertainty that's right the turkish central bank actually has raised interest rates to seventeen point seven five percent today that provoked a sharp jump in the value of the turkish currency the interest rate hike of over one percentage point had been widely expected because inflation had hit a six month high last month president versatile out of announced his intention to exert more control over konami policy if he wins the election driven losses in the new year and put pressure on the turkish central bank to raise rates. and today's meeting of the central bank can only to exhaust or another emergency interest rate hike clear indication that these are difficult economic times in turkey a growing number of foreign investors are pulling their capital out of the country since the beginning of the year the lira has shed twenty percent of its value against the u.s. dollar and some major foreign companies have increasing reservations against investing in turkey so it has firms of foreign currency debt of more than two hundred twenty bil

the turkish central bank has raised interest rates to seventeen point seven five percent the move is aimed at propping up the lira and putting a lid on galloping inflation. many investors have been pulling their assets out of turkey amid political turbulence president richard sipe heir to one announced his intention to exert more control over economic policy if he wins this month's presidential election. german industry is beginning to slowdown in april orders for industrial products dropped by two and a half percent from the previous month it was the fourth consecutive monthly decline the biggest drop was in domestic waters but current international trade disputes have also weighed on business sentiment. new york city's chief medical examiner has ruled the death of american designer kate spade a suicide spade co-founded her namesake label kate spade new york in one nine hundred ninety three expanded from colorful handbags to other fashion accessories she later sold her stake in the business spades husband said the fifty five year old was suffering from depression. just south of the

will get a policy decision from the turkish central bank.t months rate rise offered temporary relief for the lira but failed to draw a line under the market rout. let's get more on what we can expect today. justin carrigan joins us now to give us his assessment. rates aresh policy adjusted for inflation, it has got one of the best yields. is why, going into investors notare optimistic? just in: a do with the bankbility of the central and the independence of the central bank on whether the lack of independence or interference from outside will impact on policy. see investors want to largely today is a serious policy response from the turks to put a line under this weakness of the lira. they got the results to some extent through the unscheduled increase that we saw a couple of weeks ago. we are wanting to see the lid on this, that is the investor desire. that is an open question. matt: if you look at the political risk, for emerging markets in general, it has been flatlining with the exception of a massive spike at the end of march. if you lo

the turkish central bank has raised interest rates to seventeen point seven five percent the turkish currency the lira surged on the move comes less than three weeks ahead of the country's presidential and parliamentary elections the rate hike of a one percentage point had been widely expected and was quite urgent inflation has hit a six month high last month president range of type of the one announced his intention to exert more control over economic policy if he wins the election that's driven losses in the lira and put pressure on the turkish central bank to raise rates earlier we spoke to economist added that he thinks everyone in europe should be worried about what happens in turkey especially as italy a potential eurozone problem child is heavily exposed to the turkish economy. this is a very important aspect in italy it's spain and these are exactly the countries which have been going through a very difficult financial period and the central bank in europe had an eye on this loan positions with respect to turkey but in italy in particular you mention it this country is in a p

the polls the turkish lira is going south florida that's what interesting enough terry the turkish central bank needs today only two weeks after an emergency interest rate hike and these are difficult times for the turkish economy i'm too of course its currency the lira a growing number of foreign investors i'm now pulling their capital out off techie since the beginning of the given. twenty percent of its value against the u.s. dollar the reason to pull out is part of a trend in twenty fifteen investors pumped eighty nine eighteen billion dollars into turkey a failed coup in twenty sixteen and so a way for rest and government employees fired foreign investments tumbled to thirteen billion dollars and there were some major investments from qatar the netherlands and spain last year but overall investment from abroad continued to decline to just under eleven billion dollars some major foreign companies are afraid to invest in turkey and it's failing currency is a huge problem turkish firms have foreign currency debts totaling over two hundred twenty billion dollars in the weekly era of course mak

yes, it is the strong dollar, but it did not help that the turkish central bank dropped its gold reservesy 4.6 tons. -- 8.6 tons. and the stocks here dropping at the fastest rate in almost two years, record high exports, refinery runs, and an outage in canada. some oil was taken out of the market. cushing saw draws of about 2.7 million barrels alone, and talk about that impact on oil prices. overall, the last five days, up about 7%. in the past three days, up 10%, sitting at a three and a half year high. traders are paying a premium to get oil out of cushing, because it has lost all that supply from canada. dan dicker, founder of energy word, is still with us. i want to dig deeper into the wti rally, because if you look at the short-term time spreads, one to three months, they blew out as well. does this mean it is a short-term rally we are looking at? dan: everyone is assuming the sands oil that comes from canada will come back online and it will not last very long. but there are some systemic problems inside pi that are forcing the spreads back in that the eia did not predict was going

heading to the polls the turkish lira is going south florida yet interesting enough terry the turkish central bank is meeting today and that only two weeks off to an emergency interest rate hike you know these are difficult times for the turkish economy a growing number of foreign investors are pulling their capital out of the country since the beginning of the year that iran has shed twenty percent of its value against the u.s. dollar the recent pull out is part of a trend in twenty fifteen investors come to eighteen billion dollars into turkey a failed coup back in twenty sixteen so a way for arrests and government employees fired foreign investment tumbled to thirteen billion dollars there were some major investments though from qatar than evidence in spain last year but overall investment from abroad continues to decline to just under eleven billion dollars some major foreign companies are simply afraid to invest in turkey and its foreign currency is a huge problem turkish firms have foreign currency debts totaling over two hundred twenty billion dollars and the weekly era makes it more diffic

the turkish lira rising 2% today. central bankd rates for the third time in as many months, signaling it is willing to stand up against political pressure and fight double-digit inflation. 17.75% -- three days after this inflation report showed consumer prices rose 12.15% in may. we had the emergency rate hike a couple of weeks ago by 300 basis points. we had the central bank just after that, simplifying its monetary policy framework. we have this. vonnie: a little weakness in the dollar today. we have the dollar index and 93.33, down .3%. to mexican peso back up 20.44. the 10 year yield briefly touched 2.98 earlier, back down to 2.96 now. wti still more than $10 a barrel between the -- the spread with brent still more than $10 a barrel. brazil is off today. the central bank had to intervene because of brazilian reality weakness -- brazilian real weakness. the indian rupee and rand fell today. we are seeing tremors and , talkingank divergence about tightening and markets having trouble with their currencies. mark: geopolitical gyr

turkish lira bounces higher. will this be enough and will it last? we see central bankst the same time bankers have sustained credibility. >> especially true in turkey. responds is going to be the key about this market. a week ago and his campaign speech sounded like he believes in the independence of the central bank. >> it not just turkey we are dealing with. argentina and brazil are also front and center and take a look at what has happened, four is potentially what we are looking at. is there a broader story? fed saying we need more communication of where we are going. it is affecting our currencies come and we see argentina and mexico and brazil, all currencies take a hit against the dollar of late. >> this backdrop of the central banks around the world taking a punch bowl away so people are looking to see how this is going to impact some of the weaker emerging markets. what we saw a few weeks ago in argentina, played out in turkey. inalso saw the big selloff brazil. we are seeing the same phenomenon taking in south africa. all about the fed and the possibility of t

thursday the central -- the turkish central bank next meets. vonnie: is the dollar cresting?t is a question analysts are trying to work out. it looks like we are back above 94 for the dollar index and definitely softer than we were last week. the yen is trading at 109.67. crude oil is back down to 64.83. that spread is still $10 plus. the 10 year yields, we're back to 2.92%. we will talk 3% again this week? we will have to wait and see. g20 movers, i thought we would take a look. stocks on this monday are doing well in most of the g20 countries. you talked about the lira, so i will leave that one well enough alone, but the australian dollar -- that is weaker, that is trading at 6.42 at this point. commodities having a down day. primarily on the trade talks and the uncertainty surrounding them. stocksund the world continue to on hopes the biggest economy is powering ahead despite uncertainties. here in europe, new leaders were sworn in last week including weeks of political turmoil. tarrant investment management joins us. investors shrug off global trade. sometimes they do, so

that is a 125 basis point rate hike for the turkish central bank. to take a look at the immediate reaction, it is a stronger lira. in the intraday you can see that dropping like a stone for the dollar as the turkish lira balance is higher. the question going forward for the rest of the session is will this be enough? well this last? we have seen central banks hike rates, but then at the same time it does not sustain. >> especially true in turkey. as david pointed out, how erdogan reacts to this will be key to the market being able to sustain this lira bounce. a week ago in a campaign speech, he sounded like he believes in the independence of the central bank. >> it is not just turkey we are dealing with. we saw argentina and turkey and brazil. take a look at what is happened . four is what we are looking at for the real. is there a broader story in em? >> across e.m. there are a number of countries saying to the fed, we need more communication about where you are going. this week, indonesian and indian central bankers said think of us when you are m

turkish and brazilian bank. billionwith a second $2 fx swaps this week which did very little to support the stock market or the currency. we have a third rate hike from the turkish centralank in two months. that seems to have stemmed to some of the bleeding when it comes to the lira and turkish bond market. let's get the first word news with jenna. tech is facing a grilling in congress about links to china. the senate intelligence committee will call public hearings into tieups between facebook, google, twitter and others with chinese firms. there is a possibility of chinese vendors with documented links to the communist party having access to user data. that raises serious national concern concerns -- security concerns. the justice department will allow lawmakers more access to secret documents. as the defensive investigation into russian contact with the trump presidential campaign. a closed-door meeting expected next week which will include leaders of the house and senate intelligence committees. a briefing last month -- trupm assertions of the fbi spying on its campaign are incorrect. president putin has acknowledged russia's economic disconnect and sees people stru

conscript is for a number of central banks, doesn't it? the turkishal bank took an emergency move last week. they might the necessarily want to have to raise rates but it's a defensive play and that's almost a big loop that we are starting on. john: that's one of the dangers. you have the collateral damage happening too much more vulnerable economies than the ones which are initiating some of the action. that is a classic response for emerging markets. in times of economic threats to vulnerability, they have had to raise rates to try to protect their currency. it's a unwelcome decision but one that may be forced on them. with that in mind, if those risks percolate in american markets -- in emerging mextent does that cap u.s. yields below 3%? all of those. we have different views on some of these markets and we think, for example, core eurozone yields will head higher but that's more about the ecb heading back on stimulus. concerns in the wider global economy will lead to save haven demand. -- safe haven demand. you said earlier on that -- what is a st

best" we focus now in turkey where the central bank took steps to reassure investors and sure up the hunting currency. >> central bankers to the rescue. the turkishis leading currency gains. after the country's central banks that it's planning to simplify its monetary system. give us an idea of what the control bank has done today? >> what is interesting about the decision today is they raised most of the interest rates significantly but not referring to this as a rate increase. what they have done is switch the benchmark rate. they declared a new benchmark rate and equalized it with the current top rate which was the only one they've been using. this is something central bank governor has been promising to do since 2016 when he took on the job. it is what investors have been asking for to get predictability and that are outlook for monetary policy. over that time it has gotten significantly more obligated. today they are going back to a simple policy and something investors are cheering. is now new hope for the once counseled a summit 20 u.s. and north korea. president trump has confirmed that kim jong-un has sent an aide to the u.s. for talks.

bank the turkish central , that was ont way may the 23rd boosting benchmark interest rates by 400 basis points. socgen says turkey needs to maintain its pro-market policy to extend its rebound. top of the charts in that time. of by 2%. 90 minutes into the session in the u.s.. >> things are looking pretty good. our gains are extending as we continue on through. on leading the way. i will note the nasdaq, the tech asices are really gaining the trade rhetoric has died down at least for today. i want to jump into the imap function. financials have been the lead with the stress test but look at what is going on in the energy sector. up now about one point 4%. we can tell the story will look at 70 chart of what wti crude is doing. you just heard from your guests in the last hour that over the last seven days we are up 13%. oil is a good story. the supply demand picture we are reducing our inputs. certainly helping the price of oil. that story can be told, exxon mobil is a stock i am looking at today for a few reasons. up 1.6%. from the big jump of oil prices and also we have a story out the a

focus now on turkey, where the central bank took steps to reassure investors and shore up the nation's plunging currency. >> central bankers to the rescue. the volatile turkisha is leading currency gains. rising as much as 2.6% against the dollar after the country's central-bank said it's planning to simplify its monetary policy system as of june 1. give us an idea of what the central bank has done today, benjamin. benjamin: what is interesting about the decision today is they raised most of the main interest rates significantly, but it is not referring to this is a rate increase. at the same time, what they have done is switched the benchmark rate, they have declared a new benchmark rate as the repo rate, and equalized that rate with the current top rate, which was the only one they have been using for the past year and a half. this is something the central bank governor has been promising to do since 2016, when he first took on the job, and something that investors have been asking for just to get more predictability and a better outlook for turkish monetary policy. but it over that time, actually turkish monetary policy has gotten significantly more compl

elsa: turkish lira lowered by of the of it this -- year is a safe bet. francine: how does the central bankck control? elsa: there is nobody domestically that can contradict the president. he said he believes higher interest rates cause high inflation. if that is your understanding of monetary policy, you have a problem. francine: go ahead, tom. tom: i think what is so important is the politics forward. will there be new politics from mr. erdogan, or is it business as usual, including an estimated 160,000 people in jail? is there a new erdogan? >> no. it is business as usual from many different perspectives, in terms of the strive to flush out elements of defense and turkish society, in terms of policy by and large. and we saw the central bank hiking rates in may and june and he has an eye on local elections. so it is business as usual. he is waiting until there is a period of easing in order to make the adjustments that the economy desperately needs. time is not on turkey's side. francine: thank you so much, anthony skinner. and elsa lignos. erik is staying with us. at 6:00, we will have a

this is bloomberg. ♪ the turkish leader advanced after speculation that the central bank will raise ratesday ahead of a much-anticipated election on june 24. would it be a strong signal to the market if they were to high great the presidential election on the 24th? >> definitely. today. the lira rally the centralion that bank will have to do something on thursday as price into markets are now. this is the second hike in two weeks. in first was two weeks ago an emergency hike to avoid a currency crisis. tom: do they have control of their dilemma? thinks not.t the marketplace they are so far behind the game they need some astic action to catch up. this inflation number was right line with expectations. tom: what do the turkish people want? a bizarreays been thing between the government and the people of turkey. >> this is an interesting election. for the first time, the economy seems like a liability for everyone. he has been viewed as financials to iliad economic progress. the question is whether the turkish public will or will not give the polls suggest it will be a tough race. francine:

turkish lira and brazilian real. lira, 4.4. we were saying that the central bank did a surprise rate hike, the third time in two months, to try to support that. sticking to em, a couple of breaking lines on the bloomberg terminal. peru's central bank says it is going to keep its reference rate at 2.5%. -- 2.4%. yvonne: argentina, drawing on the first trench of a loan. this is how we are faring for the asian set up. we are set for some declines. take a look at the nikkei. oing on thisg friday morning, futures pointing lower in australia as well as the nikkei. -- point toout over 100 points of losses. we're still holding around 129. the aussie drifted lower overnight, pretty much reversing thegain from wednesday, and commodity currencies like the kiwi could be in a rocky road after we saw this renewed pressure in the reality as well as the ruble. the south african rand, unwinding, hitting 13 per dollar and back to december levels just before the president took office. finally, your bond markets, you totioned that flight treasuries. yields, paring back those declines

central bank intervened. this is bloomberg. ♪ vonnie: live from new york, i am vonnie quinn. caroline: and from london i'm caroline hyde. this is "bloomberg markets." the turkishllied 2.5% against the dollar. that is the third hike in less than two months. a string of emerging-market central banks that have surprised investors with large hikes, including india. is ang us from istanbul bloomberg fx and rates reporter. let's talk turkey. let's talk about the surprise. it seems like the central bank is starting to get ahead of the market now. >> that is exactly right. the central bank raised more than the highest estimate in our survey by 125 basis points. it is a sign they are getting ahead of the market and willing to surprise plausibility with this hawkish move and the market rewarded them today. we saw the move in the lira, but also turkey's bonds rallied, especially the long end on expectations that the central bank is getting more serious about controlling inflation. caroline: inflation stands at 12.15%. this is record highs. we think it is too little too late or can we start to bring this down? >> that is a good question. the doubters say the move today wa

central bank not to raise rates. the independence of the central bank is a critical issue. where do we go from here? i think the turkishill benefit. export ruptured benefit from these over devalued turkish lira. assuming a trading range for the rest of the year between 4.5 and five. broadly, the argentine sl, the brazilian real , this is over the past month, emerging markets against the dollar. the focus is for investors. where do the em risks lie for you? and where do we see too much selling and there is a good buying opportunity? bob: i think the asian currencies are stable. in the last two weeks, we have seen pressure on the indian rupee, pressure on the indonesian rupiah, and other currencies have stabilized. even with the fed raising rates probably in june, a high probability that the markets are correct in discounting at least the further to rate increases by the fed this year. asiang pressure on the currencies and the asian markets is probably now behind us. plus, in america, there's a raft of issues. i do think the the argentine central bank has taken decisive act in -- action and stabilizing the peso. brazil c

turkish population at the moment? nail on the head. there is a big domestic conversation. there is double-digit inflation. he did not win by a huge margin. the central bankother question that is highly contested. they are in a guessing game. when it comes to foreign relations, you look it was happening with united states, 70% of the turkish electorate erdogan. for mr. we live with happening with the european union, relations are not as good as they were. around the region, not many runs outside russia. the world will be looking for the direction of turkey on foreign policy and economics. vonnie: thank you. bloomberg daybreak middle east anchor. courtney: president trump is ratcheted up his demands on immigration policy, saying people who entered illegally should be deported immediately without hearings or judicial process. he tweeted we cannot allow these people to invade our country. china and the european union say they oppose trade unilateralism and protectionism. that could trigger a global recession. president trump says the trading system is rigged against the world's largest economy. german business confidence continues to slide in june over trade

jessica: the turkish leaders attempted a rally after erdogan's election victory proved short-lived. concerns about the central bank and policy direction saw concerns erased gains as -- by as much as 1.3%. this quarter as erdogan urged his central bank not to lower interest rates despite double-digit inflation. asked arights group has u.s. judge to order the trump administration to reunify more than 2000 immigrant children. the aclu filing calls for a halt to all future separations of families crossing the border to seek asylum. trump's executive order from june 20 has "explicitly polls," they said. the european union has promised to oppose trade protectionism. beijing, talks with the vice premier said they both oppose protectionism. he said sucks -- such actions and evengger tribalism a recession. trump has accused both beijing and brussels of unfair trade. head of the asian infrastructure investment bank says he hopes there will be no trade wars between the u.s., china and europe. leadersbloomberg that need to negotiate to work out differences. he also said that the bank has no plans to raise more funding than an

the central bank raised interest rates in an emergency move several days ago president otherwise a friend of lower interest rates kept quiet but urged his countrymen to remain loyal to the turkish currency. don't invest your leader in foreign currencies keep your lira only then can we show the national resolve that is our duty to the fatherland according to heir to one a foreign conspiracy is behind the crisis in reality turkey is a prosperous country whose economy is in full bloom he maintains. he points to mega projects like the third boss bruce bridge or the new istanbul airport scheduled to open later this year as the world's largest turkey's economy grew by more than seven percent last year but experts warn that the upswing is all on loan. every investment made in recent years was financed by debt which our kids and grandchildren have to repay sure we're building bridges we're building tunnels but we're not building with our money we're spending money today that we only might be able to recoup at some point from these projects in the future. the german firm nordics builds wind turbines in turkey business virtually disappeared after the attempted coup two years ago but thin