please join me in welcoming tyler cowen. >> thank you very much for the introduction. delight to be here with tyler. i've met tyler a million times, have met many years, we don't always agree with each other. disagreeing without being disagreeable and far more manageable at the end of it. we do agree on some things. i am going to get into productivity. let me quickly emphasize tyler's productivity. wonderful book in 2011. we've had your complacent, we couldn't have -- >> no, about every 3 years. things speed up as we get older. >> but, anyway, that is a lot of books, one thing i will say is tyler is unusual economist, most economists wait for the baiter and they wait, they wait for the data. they torture it sufficiently in whatever case, he uses intuition which i know a lot of economists it's quite rare. let's start by imagining let's say 20th century in pennsylvania and ohio, most of the jobs have gone to china. shopping at wal-mart and out of town and wal-mart now, everybody is beginning to shop at amazon. used to work at wal-mart, not paid very well. they can't join