the u.s.reasuries ego more than the economy. >> the way i described it to our clients is if i was a pilot of our airplane and you were the passenger, it is going to get very bumpy, put on your seatbelt, but the airplane is not going to crash. we're going to get to our destination which i think will be higher than today, both the s&p and the dow. >> the reasons for the downgrade include what fitch describes as an erosion of government, including contentious last-minute congressional debates in june over the $32 trillion debt ceiling. the attack on the capital two years ago, did not help. with in fighting between democrats and republicans brewing for years, analysts say it is now reached a boiling point. >> we are is polarized as we have ever been. we know that between the democrats, republicans. we can't reach agreements on anything. >> investors look at credit ratings to evaluate their own investments and assess risks. the u.s. treasury secretary, janet yellen launched this attack there get >>

one of them was the u.s. -- u.s.-south korea-north korea triangle. during this period, during the bush administration, the dynamic as related to north korea was also interesting because south korea could use the six party talks as a way to show some autonomy and pursue a level of cooperation with other parties and channels of dialogue at a time when the bush administration's main conceptual framework related to the use of the six party talks was to build the coalition of five against one to pressure north korea into denuclearization. and the administration was not always on the same page with the bush during this time. it showed up to less within the six party talks than in the context of an ongoing debate over which is more effective in dealing with north korean sanctions or engagement. that was an active part of the u.s. -- u.s.-south korea-north korea dynamic. the chinese developed expectations about the prospect of strategic distancing between the u.s. and south korea during that time. they really were hoping to see the administration not only ta

the history of u.s.exico relationship makes secretary alicia barcena's role critical to the continued development of the united states and mexico's strong and enduring relationship. and with that, i will turn this over to jason marczak, senior director of the latin american center, who will moderate this conversation with the secretary. >> thank you very much, adrienne treated secretary, welcome to the atlantic council and welcome to our tv and in studio audience. before we begin i would like to turn over to you, madam secretary for a presentation on the tenants and priorities of the u.s.-mexico relationship and then we will engage with a question and answer on that and other items. sec. barcena: i'm delighted to be here. thank you jason, adrian and all of you for being here. it is a great honor to be here today. what i want to say is i'm sure you are going to ask me something that i think is very relevant. i have 12 -- i have 13 months, 20 days and 72 hours to remain secretary. at least in the current a

u.s. of its aaa credit rating citing deficits and an erosion of governance. mobile equities sell off treasury secretary janet yellen blast the surprise decision calling arbitrary and outdated. plus, donald trump charged. the former president is indicted over his efforts to overturn the 2020 presidential election. charges he has repeatedly denied. we will bring you all the details. good morning and welcome to wednesday. you might have a's but of dÉjÀ vu. remember 2011 one s&p downgraded the u.s. and triggered a selloff in risk assets around the world. it somewhat ironically boosted treasuries as investors sought out haven assets. fitch as downgraded the u.s. for the first time since 1994, you will see that initially pushed treasuries higher before the move stabilized moving the two down a basis point. u.s. futures now pointing to a lower opening. the rally that drove the s&p up almost 30% from its october lows taking a breather. in terms of over haven assets, the yen is trading stronger aga

u.s. post in the making of the american west. published earlier this year by oxford university press. following lecture cameron will be happy to take your questions afterwards for books to purchase outside i think the drill is to buy them outside and then to bring them back here so cameron can sign them. so pleads joine me in welcoming cameron blevins. [applause] all rightl i think i'm all set here can everyone hear me all right justan wanted to make sure thank you so much for coming here tonight also i want to start by just thanking andy, obviously, in the clemens center for inviting me along with brian franklin and center for presidential history. ruthnt and elmore has been fabulous organizing this so i want toan thank that and thank l of you for coming. before i get started can i get a show of hands here how many folks have sent or received a handwritten letter ince the last two? weeks? okay. how many folks have been to their post office in the last two weeks? okay. how many folks colle

u.s.-china relationship. let me describe some of that from a supply chain perspective. critical supply chains, all the products capable of these technologies and investments that impact all areas of our national security, defense, health, and well-being. everything from antibiotics to defense to hypersonic's to electric vehicles and artificial intelligence. and disruption to any one of these can have cascading effect on the supply chain and pretty much bring our economy to a halt. so the situation is driven by several different issues. a lot of them, we talk about the china issue, but a lot of them have been our own doing. for instance, our trade philosophy, the globalization functions, the movement of goods , money, people, technology would flow across countries with no government intervention very smoothly. competition with pure growth with small businesses. lower costs. in other words, the level playing field. what we found is that has not happened. the aggressive national supply chain

the u.s.merce secretary's in beijing will take a look at what her visit means for u.s.-china relations. traumatic rise in the number of ukrainian deaths in the war according to estimates by u.s. officials. ♪ >> welcome to world news america. we are following hurricane idalia as it is shaping up to be a life-threatening storm with dangerous winds taking aim at the u.s. state of florida. this is the expected path of the storm. the national hurricane center could reach category three force when it makes landfall early wednesday. forecasters predict the u.s. states of georgia, north carolina, and uth carolina will see heavy rainfall. so far, florida, georgia, and south carolina have all issued a state of emergency declarations. the national oceanic and atmospheric administration released these satellite images where you can see the massive nature of hurricane idalia as it gets closer to florida, as well as hurricane franklin, which is further out in the atlantic. on the ground in florida, these ar

katrina: the u.s. do more to help ukraine? >> the u.s.es doing a great job in both providing advanced weapon systems and training. this administration's bonds on the uptake of weapon systems prisoners that they will -- they will not give one, weight and then ultimately do. we need to provide them every capability that we can. katrina: we have seen news of a woman being arrested for an assassination attempt on zelenskyy. should the usb providing greater intelligence resources to the ukrainians? >> we are already providing significant resources. frequently, the u.s. is collaborating with ukraine. nato, de you, the u.s., ukraine are all working in collaboration. katrina: if we move to the cadet relationship with russia and china, we saw them engaging in joint military operations near alaska, navy warships in place. how concerned are you? >> i am very concerned about the coordination between russia and china but dr. president xi's statement, this is a long-term plan. russia and china are working together to guard against democracy. they see i

u.s. credit rating citing worsening debt and deficit and an erosion of governance. janet yellen blasts the decision saying it is based on outdated data. the white house is blaming republican extremism. a grand jury and date donald trump on the attempt to overturn the 2020 presidential election. shery: inflation numbers from south korea for the month of july, the headline numbers is a gain of 2.3% year on year. coming in low expectations by economists not to mention it is easing from the previous month. the slowdown in inflation was pretty much expected due to the comparison with elevated figures during the month last year. month to month numbers a gain of .1% which is again below economist expectations. we are expecting this number two perhaps push higher in the month ahead. this is after july's heavy rains could apply pressure on this number. the core cpi number which is what the back of korea has wesbanco korea has been following excluding food and energy is a gain of 3.3% year on year,

this ended u.s. participation, legal u.s.pation in the atlantics and the atlantic slave trade. on july 1, 1862 the same day as the revenue act link inside the pacific railway act into law appeared chartering the railroad for thehe union pacific in the central pacific railroad which is chartered in the state of california. in these corporate land grants the u.s. congress violated treaties that it signed with indigenous nations along with the railroad. they use these land grants to raise capital to fund the construction and maintenance to the road. the infrastructure that they built raised capital to finance. itmo moved resources out and it moved troops in. these rail developments took place on a global stage. the end of 1862 a completion of the first rail line in algeria in theri spread of the rail network and western india built by the british. julyif 2 establishing the structure of the university through land grants. a continental by opening university education to small property owners. the shapes of the colonialism. organi

this u.s.stance and counterterrorism paradigm really have not been successful over this time. back in 2002, 2003, when security systems in niger first began, the state department had just had nine terrorist attacks in sub-saharan africa. last year, in just niger, and its neighbors burkina faso and mali, the pentagon counted more than 2700. there has been a tremendous amount of security assistance to the region but the mentors have all gone in the wrong way. amy: if you can talk about the significance of that u.s. connection. on the one hand, you have president biden saying he wants democracy to be assured, although he did not interesting s -- interestingly say the president must be restored. the interest of the u.s. connection and those involved with the coup are couching this as an anti-colonialist move. olayinka: the u.s. have a significant interest in the country. you mentioned the fact that niger is the largest producer of uranium in the world. most of these natural resources are mined by f

one of them was the u.s. -- u.s.-south korea-north korea triangle. during this period, during the bush administration, the dynamic as related to north korea was also interesting because south korea could use the six party talks as a way to show some autonomy and pursue a level of cooperation with other parties and channels of dialogue at a time when the bush administration's main conceptual framework related to the use of the six party talks was to build the coalition of five against one to pressure north korea into denuclearization. and the administration was not always on the same page with the bush during this time. it showed up to less within the six party talks than in the context of an ongoing debate over which is more effective in dealing with north korean sanctions or engagement. that was an active part of the u.s. -- u.s.-south korea-north korea dynamic. the chinese developed expectations about the prospect of strategic distancing between the u.s. and south korea during that time. they really were hoping to see the administration not only ta

u.s.sident donald trump adds another indictment to a growing list of will -- woes. a u.s. jury the -- is in favor of the death penalty for the greatest ai-semitic attack in the u.s. and the credit rating agency get it -- giving a downgrade that could affect america and the world. ♪ welcome to "world news america." we begin in washington as planning is underway for former u.s. president donald trump's expected court appearance thursday. tha's just two days after he was indicted over his alleged attempts to overturn the 2020 election. he is facing four federal criminal charges. this indictment, including conspiracy to defraud the united states, conspiracy to obstruct official proceedings, obstruction of and -- attempting to obstruct official proceedings, and conspiracy against the rights of citizens. the indictment alleges six co-conspirators. the document does not name them and they have not been formally charged. but details track closely to individuals who are already in the public domain

the u.s. also has about a thousand military personnel in niger. they are saying they are being confined to the u.s. military base. we'll have more on the coup in niger after headlines. in senegal, at least two people were killed monday as protests erupted following the arrest of opposition leader ousmane sonko. the senegalese government also dissolved sonko's patriots of senegal party after officials accused him of inciting violent protests last month in the capital dakar. this is the first time a political party has been banned in the west african nation since its independence from france in 1960. sonko is a likely candidate in the 2024 presidential election who's popular among younger senegalese voters. he's been accused of plotting an insurrection and criminal association with a "terrorist" body, charges he and his supporters say are false. in lebanon, fighting between rival armed groups inside the largest palestinian refugee camp continued for a third day monday after attempts to broker a

u.s. job data sending the s&p 500 to its worst day since april. while, sliding after the bell as a tepid forecast shows that mobile devices remains weak. a jumbo 50 basis point cut in result, the bank of england is expected to hike later. we have data crossing the bloomberg when it comes to australia. pmi indicators coming in. the composite coming in at 48.2, weaker then we saw in the previous reading. the services number is weaker. marginal weakness from the preliminary reading. both of those indicators looking weak in shrinkage territory. take a look at the reaction and it comes to the aussie dollar, downside pressure along with the kiwi. we have seen the increased haven demand for the u.s. dollar in the wake of the fitch downgraded of the rating. taking a look at broader spectrum of markets trading in asia, yesterday for a number of these markets, it was the worst day all year. the asia-pacific lost 2% across the session. it does not look like much of a better set up today. about an hou

u.s. futures into the red. >>> europe's stoxx 600 falls to a two-week low as markets take an infectious supply move while treasury projects lower for a flight to safety. >>> shares in semins as diagnostics takes a hit in the third quarter. the ceo says he's still confident despite some challenges. >> we saw some headwinds from foreign exchange over the year and we guide for this in the last quarter and because of this, we see very well underway to get to the lower end of the original guidance. >> four charges and six alleged co-con co-conspirators. former president donald trump is indicted for attempting to overturn the 2020 election and conspiracy to defraud the u.s. >>> well, good morning to you. here's the news we've been breaking across the morning. fitch stripping the united states of its aaa reading and down to aa it's over the standard of governance over the last 20 years following the buy saturday tan talk in the month of may which eventually saw the debt ceiling raised until janua

u.s. trading day. here are the top stories we are following. you have the china fizzle. the government tries to woo investors back into its equity market. the rally fades fast. central bankers skew hawkish at jackson hole. we look at the biggest missed prices. stocks up. yields go nowhere. the uaw is looking for a 46% raise and a 32 hour workweek. we look at the unprecedented possibility of a big three strike. from new york i am alix steel. guy johnson is off. he is currently sitting on a tarmac. we hope your plane has finally taken off. welcome to bloomberg markets. it will be hard to take a price signal over the next five days. volume is light. it is the last week in august. the take away is tricky. we did see action in europe. there is still a lot of data trickling out on both sides of the atlantic. central bankers made it clear at jackson hole they were following the data. >> we are prepared to raise rates further if appropriate and intend to hold policy at a restrictive level until we

u.s. stock rally hitting a wall following hot jobs data. the s&p 500 has its worst day since april, the vix of the most in five months. haidi: u.s. companies added more jobs in july than expected. inc. of america reversing its outlook for a recession. shery: brazil central bank cut its key rate by 50 basis points. u.s. futures coming online in the asian session, downside pressure in the new york session, asher on u.s. stocks and bonds. this on investors having to digest high job numbers and treasury debt issuance. the day after the credit rating downgrade of the u.s.. this coming at a time when we continue to see the treasury selloff. we are talking about yields reaching new highs, the 10 year yield at the highest level since november. an upsurge in the yields earnings. it led to more momentum. it is still earnings season, 169 s&p 500 companies reporting earnings. qualcomm being the latest. the downside pressure of 7% because they gave a week forecast. a smartphone device, mobile market no

one u.s.raded etf that tracks argentine assets plunged that one point today by its most since the onset of the pandemic in march of 2020. and as you mentioned, the peso also plummeted. unparallel exchanges, we saw it go down as much as 14% while argentines rushed to unload their paces and get into a dollarized assets for fear of further activity and further information ahead. argentines government devalued its official exchange rate by 18%, a dramatic shift in policy after the government had said for months, actually over the last four years, that they wouldn't do so. at the same time, the central bank also hiked interest rates a whopping 21% to 118 percent. this giant selloff today came after the libertarian outsider candidate roder voter angst captured about a third of the ballots in the primary vote. he identifies as a libertarian and supports the raising argentina's economy. he has campaigned against a political class that has largely failed to quell argentina's constant inflation problems

the u.s. atomic bombing of hiroshima and nagasaki. we will speak with john laforge who just served a 50 day sentence in germany for protesting u.s. nuclear weapons stationed at a base there. >> within the pentagon's threatened use -- we take the pentagon's threat very seriously. this ongoing well rehearsed readiness to tech people with hydrogen bombs is an international criminal conspiracy to commit massacre due to radiation of firestorms. amy: all that and more, coming up. welcome to democracy now!, democracynow.org, the war and peace report. i'm amy goodman. at least 36 people have died on the hawaiian island of maui as unprecedented wind-driven wildfires forced thousands of people to flee their homes. hospitals have been overwhelmed with burn patients. some people had to run into the ocean to escape the flames. much of the town of lahaina has burned to the ground. lahaina was once the capital of the hawaiian kingdom. residents described horrific scenes of destruction. >> i am a resident her

u.s. marines and sailors have been deployed to deter iran from seizing oil tankers in what the washington post calls a "remarkable escalation.” tensions between the two countries. iran has responded by equipping its navy with drones and missiles. we'll speak with the quincy institute's trita parsi who asks, "with marines on persian gulf vessels, is biden risking war with iran?" then, an update on how the u.s. is responding to asylum seekers, starting at the border in texas where state troopers are reportedly separating migrant families, to new york city where there are growing calls for long term shelter for asylum seekers as the city says it has run out of room. >> another slap in the face historical new yorkers who have been here and our most recent arrivals who are just seeking a little bit of help in this moment. and we need to stop doubling and tripling down on emergency systems like the shelters and get people out of emergency shelters and into permanent housing. amy: then, the iraqi

the u.s. commerce secretary says trade can stabilize relations with china but national security remains a redline. shery: take a look at u.s. futures. we are seeing stocks and bonds rising. jackson hole is heading for more eco-data, not to mention the price index. we're trying to figure out how policymakers blend in. we saw optimism today with chinese adr. the dollar was pretty flat. wti popped above it's the summer low in trading. annabelle: i saw the volatility tells us perhaps a sigh of relief and it's time to relax. futures are mostly pointing higher. we are watching the japanese yen given the yield yet. you mentioned the moves in china and that is the big focus yesterday. it was about cuts on stock purchases, slowing ipo processes to try and boost market sentiment. take a look at the moves yesterday, up at the most 5.5%. put that in context, this is a rare move. we have only seen it to other times since 2004. to pair those gains throughout the session, our colleagues are saying this does

u.s. data points to stronger economic growth and a possible fed because with treasury yields lower across the curve. country garden may default or go out of business after first-half loss of almost $7 billion. we will speak exclusively to the president of key nvidia partner quanto cloud technology about the future of the ai boom. shery: u.s. futures early in the asian session after stocks and bonds gained in new york. the s&p 500 surpassing the vardy 500 level -- 4500 level despite regional lenders under pressure today. the fed issued private warnings to some lenders. we are digesting eco-data. weaker than expected private payrolls. not to mention a downgrade when it came to the second quarter gdp numbers in the u.s. and rick -- it's related inflation gauges. treasury yields fell again in today's session. there is speculation the fed might be able to pause on tightening. that led to more upside for tech mega caps being led higher by apple. wti oil prices, not much in the asian session afte

this is where the u.s. government had forcibly removed thousands of people just a generation earlier. i'm now the civil war devastated their new homeland. and so they are, there were thousands of native people that ended ups serving on both sides both of the confederacy and on the american side. us to presidt lincoln is someone who scholars and the public often view as one of the greatest american presidents. but the reality is he did little to nothing to curtail violence towards native people during his tenure. he did nothing to curtail the suffering o >> hef did nothing particularly in indian territory and places like that. anthony blinken some native people as a threat to settler expansion. he perceived the future of the u.s. as one in which indigenous people would be swept aside and white settlers would occupy their homelands and that's partly why we have the legislation which has the homestead act and so on. his politicalol appointees in te indian service at that time had the indian affairs now called

historically, the u.s.ought saudi oil and oil exporters and in exchange, provided them with dollars. it is oil versus dollar exchange. this is how the global world order has come about. how has this changed the dynamics? you can see the oil contracts are not priced in u.s. dollar, but priced in otther currency. >> there is another issue of de-dollarization and if this is a keep aim of the brics grouping. is it the case, in fact, that what the grouping is trying to do is boost the amount of trade that can happen in local currency for a host of reasons, including facilitating the ability to trade with other countries. the potential expansion of the brics to the likes of saudi arabia and uae and countries with dollar peg ps is going to t a lot of interest. the broad idea that the main aim or thrust of this is de-dollarization doesn't hold water with the expansion. think of argentina as well where the economies remain important for the dollar. we know there has been a d diversification in the middle east. if yo

u.s. futures edge higher as the latest jobs and consumer data offer support for investors speculating that the fed is near the end of its tightening campaign. bloomberg reports china's biggest banks are preparing to cut interest rates on existing mortgages and deposits, and beijing's latest measures to shore up growth. plus crypto assets in focus as a u.s. appeals court gives grayscale the green light for its bitcoin etf. good morning welcome to wednesday. it is a sea of green across the screen for equities this morning after that weaker than expected u.s. economic data. the cracks starting to show in the u.s. economy and it looks like the pressure is off for the fed. that meant the market cut pricing to just under a 15% chance of a september hike. -- also brought forward when they saw the stock rate cuts from july to june next year but of course we still have fridays job report, the july pce numbers and august cpi before the next fomc meeting. nonetheless it sent treasury yields at their

people, u.s. persons whose communications are picked up in the course of the absolutely lawful monitoring of the foreign targets. those foreign targets are busy going at other foreign targets. obviously, some of them, you can envision, not necessarily a 702 target, but you can envision a chinese spy overseas, trying to recruit an american. there would be communications back and forth. some of this privacy -- some of the privacy and civil liberties advocates have said we would like a sense of just how much is inadvertently picked up in this. the intelligence committee has said we don't want -- we are not going to tell you because we can't tell you. can you elaborate on that? that continues to be an issue that is percolating. april: absolutely. it is a difficult area to get a grass around. i want to remind everybody that, with respect to nsa's foreign intelligence commission, we stand at the shores of the nation and look out. with respect to the 702 authority in particular, 702 only permits specifie

arm is at the heart of the tensions between the u.s. and china right now. the u.s. has imposed export restrictions on technologies that can be sold into china, especially ai chips for example in chipmaking equipment. arm sits right at the heart of those tensions. in the risk festers -- factors, the detail the tensions between the u.s. and china that could weigh on the business in the future. they need to make sure they can keep control of the business in china. right now, they are in a minority position there at the same time they are trying to boost revenues. lizzy: thank you to peter elstrom. i want to stick with the geopolitical theme because the south african president cyril ramaphosa is hosting chinese president xi jinping in pretoria ahead of the brics summit which kicks off today. it is a rare trip abroad for xi jinping. jennifer zabasajja has been well across the story. what is on the agenda for the meeting? jennifer: this is an of cans because as you mention, the brics summit is happening this week but this is the only state visit we will see this week. thi

u.s. stocks. shery: goldman sachs will further unwind its --. u.s. futures coming online in the asian session per muted at the moment. we saw mixed finish. tech leading the gains in the s&p 500, which rose for the fourth time. tesla game in the most since march. we are watching the dollar swinging between gains and losses, finishing unchanged. oil falling and continuing to feel the pressure in the asian session. we do have more signs of a rebound in supply. take a look at the treasury space. volumes were quite low, 75% of activity. that is leading to big moves in the yield space. two year yields rise in about 5%. if you are looking at the inflation protected treasuries, yields pushing over 2% for the first time since 2009. the 30 year also, a 2011 high. a major shift as we are seeing the ads of recession in the united states receiving. let's turn to our top story. softbank's semiconductor unit arm has filed for an ipo seeking to list its american depository shares on nasdaq under the symbo

it goes beyond the u.s. japan alliance appeared i think japan's international order is multilateral inclusive. i think that is what japan is also trying to do. >> it used to be if you have international organization you try to put together. all of these new organizations are free-floating. >> this is a part of it. atlantic and in the end of pacific theater in the atlantic theater seems to be less true when you have the ukraine and places with china going on. a lack of intervention of trade promotion, which i think are asian in the pacific partners would like to see. it is not a replacement for the tpp, this trade becomes less relevant in this era. the biden administration's in in the pacific strategy. >> this is a painful question for me. i used to work at a time when we were very focused on a strengthening of the multilateral rules-based trading system. but also pursuing a robust agenda with the partners around the world, including in the asia-pacific. i do think it is a very serious challenge to the biden

if you had a direct contract with the u.s. government or a u.s.tractor, this would expand eligibility beyond that scope. it would make more veterans of the afghan military eligible. host: one of the problems is the ftps were not translators so technically they did not fall under the special immigrant visas category. because they were soldiers. so the act was not written for them. show less >> that is correct it was written at a time when we were still in afghanistan, we have not taken the necessary steps to update that law to reflect current reality. host: so they really need a waiver or this afghan adjustment act in order to fast-track or even just keep moving their application. >> right. if and when that becomes law that would expand eligibility so that they would be eligible to get that visa and green card. host: i would like to take a moment if i could and call a lifeline to renata because renata has been working for the past two years diligently and not enough has been said about the volunteerism and the amount of time, renata is a lawyer tha

the u.s. has joined the diplomatic effort with its senior official meeting with coup leaders monday work no fruitful outcome. francineor reporter katherine gives us an update on developments. >> the coup leaders in niger are digging in as the political crisis keeps simmering. after the deadline given by ecowas on sunday to reinstate the ousted president has passed, they have this tuesday refused authorizations for a high level ecowas delegation to travel from nigeria to niger citing public anger at the economic sanctions already imposed by ecowas, saying that given that anger they did not feel that security conditions were in place to meet that delegation. so that attempt at dialogue by the regional west african group has been rebuff. the leaders of the group are meeting in nigeria for an emergency summit this thursday. we'll have to wait and see what their next move will be. we've seen similar defiance from niger's coup leaders. there was a visit overnight by the second ranking u.s. diplomat,

the u.s. fought so the civil war was the militarily defeated and also against mexico the u.s. war economy tied together the production of farms and new england with of the stabilization of slavery in texas and the deep south. by the early 1860s the war economy marked the confrontation between the merchant capital that required a protected national market and a southern southernovarian capital that red international exports. merchant and insurance capitalll based in new york city and the connecticut river valley began the war paralyzed and divided undertaking a transition to a diversified portfolio of investments across thehi ranchi, agriculture, mining industry. as the expected u.s. victory over the confederacy was thwarted by the battlefield catastrophes the legal act passed on 1862 authorized $150 million in u.s. treasury notes which eventually increased the 450 million and with an additional half billion dollars raising funds to support military power over land and sea which would be necess

alex: that's an inversion compared to the u.s. model. the u.s. model has typically been more aid and less commercial looking investments. in china the majority are these other financial flows. not strictly aid according to the definition in paris. overwhelmingly it may look commercial but there are other types. thomas: mostly not just grotto us. it's an obligation with collateral? alex: exactly. and i should be clear we don't track specifically direct investments or private sector. it has to come from an official source. thomas: gotcha. wilson, you have a microphone? right in the middle here, please. >> i'm peter humphrey. former intelligence analyst. particularly in the case of the solomons, the interest is much more for future utilization of manganese nodules and to a lesser extent, fishing. rather than some grand geopolitical scheme beyond the second island chain. did you look at all of those resource potentials? alex: we do have parallel studies looking at for example transition minerals that obviously china is very interested in and we looke

>> if you consider the u.s. market to be overheating with a slight bubble in the tech sector, 25% of the s&p 500, what do you do? you could want to diversify. if you think the landing is going to be soft or even if you think the recession is not going to be like advanced, then you might want to oh some cyclicality. something treading like you saw earlier. significant record discounts actually. guy: but there's a correlation at some point, isn't there? >> there is, but it works with a lag, as always. the european stock market has been dislocated from the data, like the pmi's. what people expected, these were market things ahead. looking forward to those moments. at the moment, even though it's information with the economy dropping drastically. alix: let me ask it in a different way. do we need to see 2024 gdp growth estimate pick up for u.s. equities to make sense? >> not necessarily. the markets in the u.s. have been driven by the, the tech sector. at that point, that sector doesn't really care about gdp forecas

u.s.. janet yellen responding in blasting the decision as based on outdated information. plus, as china counts the cost of deadly flooding, we will be taking a closer look at the risks of extreme weather sydney university. welcome to the show. i hope you are all well and i hope you are all dry. we're looking at markets moving into the mid morning. parts of the morning session and we are not getting a lot of momentum coming through, not surprisingly so, given the momentum we have had across various parts of the equity markets. they just one -- the latest one to join in as the equity shares. we are back to session lows. the hang seng is zero point 3%. other things we are tracking of course is the move up in treasuries and ironically speaking, of course, given that it may be in the outlook on treasuries, optics wise given the ratings downgrade, unexpectedly we are seeing that ironically going back into the treasury. rishaad: absolutely. this is a haven which is the one which is effectively be

our u.s. economist suggests if the u.s.on't do anything about it, their debt to gdp ratio could rise to 130% in the next 10 years. when they were downgrading from aaa the first time 12 years ago, the ratio was only 60% so it is already deteriorating. and it is likely to get a lot worse. in the short-term, the metrics for the u.s. fiscal situation are far worse than when s&p downgraded aaa status several years ago. on a case-by-case basis, the situation in many ways is a little bit getting out of control for the united states. until investors get a signal that the u.s. government will actually do something to slow down this widening of the fiscal deficit. they will not be confident this is the right time to buy treasuries. if they buy them, they want more compensation. they want to see yields much higher. when the treasury announced they will be selling even more debt in the third quarter than expected, of course, people want to push yields higher. the options next week could be tough if the prices don't get to a decent enou

i wonder when it comes to the u.s. and the sentiment from the u.s.r whether you pull forward your views and your forecast on a u.s. recession. mark: i have not change the timing of the u.s. recession. it is fourth-quarter but we are starting to see the cracks. i am now finally for the first time since 2021 -- i think u.s. two year yields have peaked. one of the calls is always thinking the u.s. to your yields will go higher. i reiterated that only two weeks ago but now i think they probably have peaked as we are going to start thinking about the recession again. we have passed growth optimism. in a short-term markets were quiet today overall. my conversations with portfolio managers today, people are really focused on the long-term dynamics. it is almost as if they got a bit exhausted by the short-term news flow. mark: the two-year and the call -- tom: the two-year and the call as we look at the u.s. treasury curve. markets now pricing in a less than 50% chance of an additional hike coming through from the fed . mark stays with us to give analysis an