u.s. economy continues to weaken as the fed is forced to admit that the tightening cycle is over and a new easing cycle is going to begin as inflation begins to move higher despite the fact that the u.s. economy moves into recession i think you're going to see a perfect sport storm when it comes to gold and i think you're going to see tremendous buying coming in a lot of people are still short they still don't understand the real predicament that the u.s. economy is in and when this picture becomes clearer to more people the price of gold is going a lot higher let's talk about this pull of these political cases you know you've got opec you've got its affiliates there's going to be a meeting in st petersburg and russia coming up in just a couple of weeks opec is trying to head out and find a way to balance out but the u.s. says hey we're going to do you know we're fracking we're drilling we're going gangbusters the u.s. is still importing there's a lot that isn't talked about with regard to these this output and the glut so do you think this political tip for tat between these member countr

u.s. economy, this was ten years ago, overall the u.s. economy appears likely to expand at a moderate pace over the second half of 2007, with growth then strengthening a bit in 2008. we must not forget what actually happened next. the financial devastating financial crisis. working families in ohio and nevada and maryland and arkansas and all over working families across this country can't forget that. they're still digging out. nor can we forget it collective amnesia on this panel aside. i mention this not as a criticism of chairman bernanke, he had plenty of company in missing the signs of an impending crisis and collapse but when it happened he took aggressive action, all of you did, to confront the crisis. he learned the lessons that came at such a high cost. after the crisis we put rules in place that strengthen the capital position of the banks, provided more stable liquidity, improve protections for consumers and for taxpayers. lobbyists are using the success of these reforms as proof that they should now be gutted. they're arguing

u.s. economy grew more than double the year's first quarter here's why.americans were in a shopping mood from april to june boosting second quarter growth far above the dismal rate. consumer spending accounts for two thirds of the u.s. economy in quarter two it grew at a rate of two point eight percent nearly a full percentage point from the first quarter overall the u.s. economy increased at a two point six percent annual rate more than double the first quarter's one point two percent growth we've seen the economy grow one point nine percent in the first half of twenty seventeen president donald trump set a target rate of three percent for the entire year these first half numbers show the u.s. will likely miss that mark told the band we wrote despite the fact that more americans are working now with unemployment rate incredibly low they're working these jobs without much of a raise some analysts believe consumer spending will slow next quarter because of it. now to the world of sports where a few superstar athletes rake in hundreds of millions of dollars

u.s. economy grew more than double the year's first quarter here's why.americans were in a shopping mood from april to june boosting second quarter growth far above the dismal rate. consumer spending accounts for two thirds of the u.s. economy in quarter two it grew at a rate of two point eight percent nearly a full percentage point from the first quarter overall the u.s. economy increased at a two point six percent annual rate more than double the first quarter's one point two percent growth we've seen the economy grow one point nine percent in the first half of twenty seventeen president donald trump set a target rate of three percent for the entire year these first half numbers show the u.s. will likely miss that mark holding it back we wrote despite the fact that more americans are working now with unemployment rate incredibly low they're working these jobs without much of a raise some analysts believe consumer spending will slow next quarter because of it. now to the world of sports where a few superstar athletes rake in hundreds of millions of dolla

u.s. will be as well. we have global inflation as well, and divergent economies. u.s., we are seeing strengthen american economies, best in american economies come and everyone thinks the fed will be there forever but they are not. jonathan: you talk a little bit about the relative value opportunities across major economies, and here is a chart that has the story. walk me through it. michael: this chart is showing the inflation differentials across our economies. while not overly significant, we are seeing a trend downward in terms of inflation on a global basis, and we know that is happening there. we see the united states moving area, we the 1.5%, 1.7 see canada at 1.4%, and the eurozone at 1.1%. we think the u.s. is a transitory decline, pushing back up to the 2% area due to the tightening of the labor market. you have the, target and you are in a situation where you have a labor market that is very divergent within europe. -- lowhave low inflation unemployment in certain areas and very high unemployment in other areas. we expect that to continue to cause inflat

u.s. economy. it's been an interesting week.berg markets strategist , i suppose yellen was the key event. inflation,ry and some took away a more dovish message. richard: i think that's the right read it. data,at we have the cpi she was reticent about it. we sat here lastly -- last week looking ahead, i think the messaging was unchanged to slightly dovish. the data we've seen today, including retail sales being sales andsoft retail the not so strong inflation data we saw the dollar fall this week and -- week. mark: what director is the dollar heading? what are the standings in the way of the dollar continuing western mark -- continuing it? richard: there is a 40% chance we will get a rate rise this year. i think it depends on talents sheet normalization. that is the one thing we are waiting for. takeaways is the next six months are going to be more about balance sheet normalization and adjusting the fund rate. we might see a little bit of support for the dollar. that's been lacking above late. vonnie: why on earth is gdp growth s

u.s. economy has been led by consumer spending.t's probably time for investment to take up some of the slack, lerks st we are willing to let citizens to borrow and grow their personal indebtedness. so the just of that tax reform seems to us to be potentially very favorable to the economy. the first question you asked me, the continued presence of i would say accommodated monetary conditions. not just in the united states, also europe, the u.k. and elsewhere and asia, is taking volatility out of the real economy. he's also distorting to a certain extent the curve in terms of investment and leading to risk at times potentially being mispriced. so from our standpoint, if we could see gradual tax reform with a gradual readjustment of monetary conditions together with continued investment in infrastructure and technological intervention, it seems to us, we see this happening in the u.s. and the e.u. which is undergoing a recovery. and india and china. the world economy is not in such bad shape after all. it's just about avoiding a major

u.s. economy, but wages are stuck, what is wall street make of that?> a little bit of a miracle to investors and economists because overall the job market report is fairly strong in june, around 40,000 jobs. were created than expected and pretty much in all sectors you see those industries created jobs. even after five weaker months, in the retail industry, job got created. when explanation why wages are not being raised is companies are hiring younger people and not offering as many midsized jobs, also their productivity levels are not that high, that might be another reason why wages are not that high. the job market rose solid and we saw a good day here on wall street. we also finished the week high. >> earnings season is kicking off next week, tell us what investors are expecting? >> overall, we are expecting we will seeee an average profit increase of about 6.5% revenue increase. 4.5% for the companies being traded in the s&p 500. we should not forget one of the main reasons why the stock market remains on fire is because of corporate america doin

u.s. economy. they are not going to bail out investors from outside the u.s.hink there will be a change. it has slowed down on the margin. i think there are yields out there that are attractive. we do not just go away into our own cash when we are defensive, we look for opportunities. the emerging markets, both debt and equity space, are very, very interesting. i know we talked about lofty levels in u.s. equities and we talk about lofty levels in u.s. and developed market bonds. but the emerging markets are still very attractive. you look at local currency in emerging markets. you have really attractive yields. yields north of 6%, and real positive yields. so very, very high real returns there. and so, we think the emerging markets are poised to do better. particularly not just from a rate perspective, but currencies. currencies for the last three years have underperformed massively, and that is a good thing for the forward because you have much more competitive economies. and you also have a situation where a lot of these countries have basically reduced thei

u.s. economy. they will not bailout investors from outside the u.s.. i think there will be a change.has slowed down on the margins. these margins are attractive, and we do not just go to cash when we are defensive, we look for opportunities. the emerging markets, both debt and equity space, are very interesting. we talk about lofty levels in u.s. equities and in developed markets bonds, but the emerging markets are still very attractive. when you look at currency in emerging markets, you have attractive yields north of 6%, and real positive yields. so very, very high real returns there. we think the emerging markets are pushed better, not just from a great perspective but currencies. they have underperformed massively for the past three years, and that is a good thing for the forward because you have much more competitive economies. and you also have a situation where a lot of these countries have basically reduced their debt load by devaluing their currency. and most of these countries are issuing most of their debt in local currency rather than the dollar, which with a historical -

u.s. economy.have dark particular,ce, in what is happening to an economy where corporate earnings are growing and personal income isn't. you how personal income is growing. , the outlookluent isn't so good. americans are not getting more confident in the economy. theiry they are closer to career aspirations. look at some of the details for donald trump. 50% view him unfavorably. taking the u.s. on the wrong economic path. did,fficials have already boosting the economy. >> the latest inflation showing another deceleration. they tied their hands at this meeting? does, perhaps it doesn't. what the survey shows is that it is all quantitative easing. the central banks. there's a little bit of joy. -- btv 465. juster away from being under 2%. the prices of those. line, it is the end of august. the jackson hole, kind of open the door to the stepped up purchases and the quantitative easing. to give us this change of policy to signal the quantitative easing pullback. it will be signaled in september officia

u.s. economy so this is very economic rather than political but at the end it means isolating the u.s. from the role of economy and i want to make one point very very certain the u.s. has now only a share of world g.d.p. of sixteen percent that used to be different i think the u.s. is overstretching regarding the position they take in the role of economy but impact is do you think the e.u. will be able to significantly change u.s. policy. well. that is a very good question law think of the very moment where the european union stands up and is. clearly taking a stance or split between the european union and the u.s. in the geopolitical i think they have a good chance to to find a compromise that benefits all the european union the u.s. and also russia and the rest of the world thank you so much for sharing your insights with us but we have to end it there that was our folk are hell mayor of germany's brummer bank thank you sir for joining us here. there is no magic solution to the refugee crisis are going to italy's interior minister european officials met in tunisia to discuss the probl

u.s. economy can accelerate in this momentum even without fiscal policy, even without --.ned in the last year is a weaker dollar. that is helpful for economic growth. it is also built up in private wealth. private consumption has been pretty weak in the past year. the preconditions for higher growth, there is some inherent momentum in the u.s. economy which is overlooked right now. ♪ >> central banks around the world, the fed wants to remove accommodation. they want to normalize rates. we believe they want to do it for structural reasons must we believe it would do it no matter the data. >> some people believe they risk taking away stimulus that is actually helping to fuel the economy, fuel the stock market. just for fun, let's bring up another bloomberg chart that core --u the pc and cpi the pce and cpi core. both have made such a sharp move down. you said central banks will raise rates anyway. what are the risks? guest: that risk is that we did that policy event, and it becomes a market event. the risk of being that the market sees stock market rates moving too fast. we

u.s. economy and within the u.s. people. peter: ok. we're running out of time i'm afraid. i would like to give each of you a half a minute, a minute tops to just -- a lot of the protesters are calling for different kind of globalization. define what that different kind of globalization could look like. ekonnen: i think globalization has helped to fight poverty on one hand, but on the other side, it has been also gapping the difference between the rich and the poor. we need globalization of human rights and of good governance and democracy which are clear fundamentals and basis for development and economic prosperity. peter: ok. irwin collier? irwin: i think i'm going to go along very similar. the harmonization is always looked at this terms of financial markets, safety, labor markets but a harmonization of political standards that we all hold ourselves to report to. i think that is the kind of globalization i would like to see. peter: dagmar? dagmar: globalization of the core, human rights. at least the basic human rights. i think that is not too much to ask for. peter: wh

u.s. economy. is very low. >> and she added that achieving 3% growth would require broad changes. such as tax reform and an improved education system which would add to labor productivity. >> the fed chair also said it was premature to conclude inflation would continue to fall below the fed's 2% target. today, we learned producer prices rose slightly last month and the index for june gained .1%. economists thaukt it would be flat. well, the federal reserve likes the idea of seeing slightly higher inflation. especially given the slowdown recently in price gains. >>> and food prices have also been falling. you might have noticed that drop at the check outline at the grocery store. good news for shoppers, but a thorin and now, there's a new low price store that's expanding and could be a new threat to the industry. courtney reagan has more from chesapeake, virginia. >> the german grocer opened its 14th of 1100 planned u.s. stores in chesapeake, virginia, with hundreds of excited shoppers lining up hours before doors opened. >> the way the prices are, i won't p shopping other places.

u.s. economy can accelerate his growth momentum, even without fiscal policy, without tax cuts.be helpful, but look at the last year, a weaker dollar. that by itself is helpful for economic growth. it is a buildup and private wealth. this is supported for private consumption. it is a segment that has been weak in the last half of the year. the preconditions for higher growth, there is some inherent momentum in the u.s. economy which is overlooked right now. >> central banks around the world want to remove accommodation and normalize rates. itbelieve they want to do for structural reasons, so we think they will do it no matter what the data. >> some people think there is a risk of taking away stimulus that is helping to fuel the economy and stock markets, but let's bring in up another chart, core, there, the cpi feds main gauge, both made a sharp move down. what is the risk for the markets? there is already risk coming back into bonds? is it a risk for stocks too? >> sure, the risk is we get the policy event that becomes the market event. the stock market sees rates moving too fa

u.s. economy warranted a gradual rise in rates the fed chair said 2% inflation is still the target and the fomc is monitoring the situation closely. >> it's premature to reach the judgment that we're not on the path to 2% inflation over the next couple of years as we indicate in our statement, it's something that we're watching closely considering the risks around the inflation outlook. we need to make some adjustment as long as our forecast is that we are headed back to 2% about that. >> she was also asked about the health of the u.s. economy and how it will impact the path and timing of rate normalization >> the committee continues to expect that the evolution of the economy will warrant gradual increases in the federal funds rate over time to chaefr and ma achieve and maintain maximum employment and stable prices that expectation is based on our view that the federal funds rate remains some what plbelow its neutral level, that is the level of the federal funds rate that is neither expansionary nor contractionary and keeps the economy operating on an even deal >>> a new cancer gene thera

u.s. economy. >> money watch's roxanna joins us live from the new york stock ex chance, with the details but first a look at the market numbers. good morning, roxanna. >> reporter: good morning, big tech companies are reporting earnings this week, google's parent company facebook and amazon later in the week. here on wall street, friday, the dow lost 31-point, the nasdaq dropped two. >> the international finance community is losing a little fate in the u.s. economy. the international monetary funds is downgrading it forecast on how fast the economy will grow. it is predicting .1%% growth this year, lower than it earlier prediction of 2.3%. the ims cited weak growth earlier in the year. >> and, the pokemon go fest had a rough start in chicago this weekend, spotty sell protection, server problems, prevented participants from logging in. the game was basically unplayable. purchasers offered $100 worth of pokey coins and $20 ticket refund. >> and if you have ever lost your temper with customer service,

u.s. economy.ookst credit markets pretty expensive. >> i do not know how you are supposed to trade in nuclear war. i am not sure i would know how to do that. david: it is all straight ahead .""bloomberg best," ♪ hello and welcome. i am david westin. this is "bloomberg best," your weekly review of the most important business news, analysis, and interviews from bloomberg television around the world. geopolitical tensions set the dominant tone this week leading up to the g-20 meeting on friday, but the week began on a hopeful note for investors with the opening of a new bond link to mainland china. >> the long-awaited bond connect between china and hong kong has gone live, it is the third cross-border trading link, and gives offshore investors access to the mainland's $10 trillion debt market. >> at 9:20 a.m. is when the gong was banged and the bond connect went live, at least in one direction, heading north in china. no timetable according to the dignitaries today for southbound, but it is inevitable

u.s. i see a lot of signs for wages, and an economy doing well.arly, the economy is strong and continuing to move ahead with good momentum. manus: joining us is michala marcussen, global head of economics at societe generale. some called him crocodile dundee. he has made the same speech several times. but the debate is all about the testimony from janet yellen, and to what extent do you as an economist will or look for signals from yellen that this inflation is helping. it is aelieve transitory issue or something more sustained? down to theoils real economy and what is happening on the real economy dynamics. if we continue to see the labor see as tighten, you will pickup in wage inflation. i do not think the curve is dead, but there are shifts around the curve. weis not behaving the way thought it was behaving in the past. there is a lot of debate about how you measure slack on the market. there are uncertainties, but what you see on the silex curve is not much happens. you get a more sustained pickup in wages. as we talk about wages, it is import

u.s. economy. mike: if that bill comes a back to the house with that tax intact, will it be a problem for the revocation, its passage in the house? rep. brady: i think -- it is a tough red flag. clearly, the house spoke very clearly. we want those taxes out of the economy. that one especially is very anti-growth, anti-jobs provision. it certainly does not help in health care. the senate has worked to do. it is not a final product yet. i am really hopeful to get it all right. >> do you expect it will be a straight up our down vote in the house? what level of changes may they make until you say we have to talk about this more cannot take it as is? rep. brady: it depends on the final product. we know the initial drafts are not the final product. they have a lot more work to do. we will weigh what the final product is as it comes back to the house. we will see from there. >> i will ask you about a tweet the president sent out on friday morning. if this does not get done, congress should repeal obamacar

u.s. economy to do well as well -- you want the u.s. economy to do well.hat determines the health of the equity market. you are not going to get enough stimulus, i believe, from just a weaker dollar. the weaker dollar is going to be the result of readjustments rather than a new stimulus for the market. mark: how do we protect ourselves in the eventuality that this trade war does supplement the absence of stimulus? if that plays out, how do we as equity investors best position ourselves for that outcome? >> that is a great question, mark. if a trade war becomes a reality, or looks like it will become a reality, i think the benefits are going to be in terms of moving to the equity area, which is risk off. --ensive equities, but defensive equities, for example, 1% off. plus, i have said repeatedly that the treasury and fixed income will keep rallying. can you are not going to see yield rising. you will probably see for the 10 year u.s. treasury, to go from below to 2%.o if you have a global trade war and the global growth suffers, the beneficiaries are going

u.s. economy through investment, jobs, capital, and a stream of high-quality and safe productses. we believe that our collaboration with corn something a potential game changer and supports are focused on bringing the highest quality products to patients. the glass industry represents about $4 billion of expend it you are for the pharmaceutical industry. -- expenditure for the pharmaceutical industry. potential breakages, we have strong quality control to ensure that doesn't get through to the patients. but the subsequent costs are multiams of the glass costs to make sure that we deliver a high quality product to patients. so this is a major innovation and a major way that we can be more competitive in this industry. as an aside, to ensure we have an environment that supports innovation, and creates a positive investment climate in the u.s., we're looking forward to working with the administration on both its regulatory policy and its tax reform, to ensure we can be competitive. thank you very much. [applause] >> you've heard heard the president, ken and ian describe this remarkab

u.s. economy on its pre-existing trajectory? peter: i think you're quite correct in what you say.ns you pose really mirrors comments at jpmorgan couple of days ago. 2%at growth between 1% and in the states, if we have politicians on board, engaging in real, constructive reforms, because let's our gdp growth rates. the market at the moment is quite saying when, continue as you were. i would nothing we are ignoring washington. if you look at the dollar, it is weakening with every nonevent from the trump is meditation. but as regards the equity market, it is continuing as it was. guy: you did see a treasury market reaction and a dollar market reaction. have we fully price out the reflation trade? are expecting zero in terms of policy going forward from , because i thought that a few weeks ago and we are still pricing it out. have we got to the point where we are not pricing of the reflation trade but actually pricing out -- pricing in a drag from the inability of washington to do anything? peter: i would not say we have prompted up holy. on the commodity side of things, that has been

u.s. economy.ers of the very slower growth that we expect -- over the next decade or two, relave to past decades for the u.s. economy are much more powerful forces than who is in office. mostly, we are talking about today -- demographics with the forces that are driving long-term interest rates , and the growth of the economy much lower. seem to complain about a 2% gdp growth rate in the united states, but we are surprised the able to achieve that level of growth. once we hit full employment, we think the new normal growth rate is likely to bcloser to 1% than 2%. of course, the economy is able to keep growing at 2%, because there is this large pool of ,abor that isn't accounted for or counted, in the unemployment rate. the unemployment rate looks extraordinarily low, but the later force participation rate is also rather modest, and has continued to grow. we are continuing to add labor to the economy. done, one we had true full employment, we will slow back down. we would forecast a phenomenal retur

u.s. economy continues to disappoint. te clear on where the u.s. leadership is going, not least in terms of trade with china. in the meantime china is happy to try to fill that void. >> thank you so much. greatly appreciate that. tony, how does it figure into the calculus? >> china's probably one of the most important stories to follow for the rest of the year. they have a big gathering in party called the 19th congress. it seems the president will be consolidating part of it. the key is, over the weekend, to what extent will china put the effort at stabilizing financial risk over economic growth? in other words, choosing quality ore quantity? so we want to watch this story on china extremely closely. as it was said earlier g.d.p. contribution to the world is significant at $12 trillion, it's at nearly 800 billion of g.d.p. the u.s. growing at 2% is half that. is is so it can have big reverberations around the the world. >> china's stability -- because they want to dampen down. or instability, because we still don't know w

u.s. economy, something i'm sure the fed will be thinking about today. check out this chart. that. vonnie: and she welcomed your back. did i say how great it is to have you back on monday? mark: a bit late. vonnie: i think i did. i don't think you heard me. mine is black and white. when it comes to investors, everything is black and white. when we look at mcdonald's and we see how the typical life has been for the ceo, sales growth not there, sales decline comfortably for six quarters in a row. we have a little bit of a rebound. then we get this quarter. it is the best quarter in some time, 6.6%. mcdonald's says re-franchising up, they prices going will buy back some of their shares, whether that is healthy for the u.s. economy more broadly, that is a question, but it is definitely healthy for shareholders. we will talk more about their policies and strategy tomorrow. mark: you are both equally charming. both with incredibly topical charts. there is only one result. it is a tie. i know. it is a time. both equally brilliant. well done. vonnie: this is a virtual handshake acros

u.s. economy? jon: i think if he does very little, that is probably the best outcome for the u.s. g for politicians to do that just donk -- just can't seem to it. health care is an area he is having an impact and that is a meaningful thing in the u.s. economy and is affecting quite a lot of companies severely. terms of reflation trade, i think those expectations are gone. francine: even for tax reform? mark: largely. jon: he isn't going to get an enormous amount through. he doesn't have the money tree he needs to have to deliver his program. francine: then he will -- you look at the markets and there is trading on this animal spirit. if ceos cannot believe in it, but the market is believing in it, what needs to happen for a correction to take place? mark: you don't need the trump reflation trade to be true for markets to continue to gain in this environment. i think the basic economic outlook is there to do it alone. jon: markets are not expensive on many measures and not cheap on many either. they are -- i don't think there is anything really very much strength -- strong there. fr

u.s. economy? that is the question.is to the shortage of bacon finally provide that boost to inflation that janet yellen has been looking for? it is g #btv 3631. oliver: i don't stand a chance. vonnie: you can't put a price on sizzling bacon, emma. [laughter] oliver: let me just say i don't stand a chance. i'm so team bacon. i forfeit today. [laughter] mark: i did hear that, so who won? vonnie: giving all over in wins this but emma time. still to come, catch our energy with omb director mick mulvaney. his reaction to the latest read on gdp and lots more going on in washington. that's at 1:30 p.m. new york time. this is bloomberg. ♪ jonathan: from new york city to our viewers worldwide, i'm jonathan ferro with 30 minutes dedicated to fixed income. this is "bloomberg real yield." ♪ jonathan: coming up, the u.s. economy rebounds, but inflation raises questions about the fed's next move. away with the biggest debt market deal of the year. the market wanted even more. billionaire investor howard marks of oaktree capital issu

u.s. economy. let's you caught up with the first word news.dent trump's team has been playing down the comment he asked about complete power to pardon. he cannot pardon the supreme court. they would have to determine if he could pardon himself. the legal team said the issue is not on the table. >> i am not sure, but it does not matter anyway. this is one of those stupid hypotheticals. he will not have to do it because he has not done anything wrong. oliver: the parliament -- rosalind: $9.8 billion in spending is the plan to create thousands of jobs for the gdp growth. the vote was delayed with disagreement over issues including the inclusion of more civil servants. the philippine president has support for increasing marshall support. representative voting overwhelmingly in favor for the. the senate approved by 16 to four. this is the second annual state of the nation address later today. french president emmanuel macron has seen approval ratings sink over the tax reform confusion. points tos felt 10 $.54, the second-biggest to climb for a pres