u.s. economy is considered to be at full employment the u.s. federal reserve has said that under such circumstances it would continue to raise interest rates the governing board is set to meet at the end of this month's. well how did that go down with investors i also find national correspondent to wrap up the week on the markets for us. the trade. there may be unsettling investors but the u.s. economy are now coming along. growth substantial in august but they're not. showing two hundred one thousand new jobs created that's why many more than expected what contributed were a broad range of sectors from construction to wholesalers to business services healthcare also good news from the point of the u.s. economy wage increases it was the largest annual increase over nine years an annualized point nine percent now that the u.s. economy is doing well for the dollar up of response go on wall street the dow going down slightly one. hundred one up the dollar going up going down and that's helped a german i hear. great training of the u.s. labor marke

u.s. economy is actually growing fairly well.hat is not going anywhere because fiscal policy is supported in the consumer is confident. krishna: i think the driver of the dollar, the rate differential is clearly a big driver, but equally important is the u.s. fiscal deficit and the ensuing u.s. trade representative which are very related. effectively the fiscal deficit gets financed by the trade deficit. if you think of it that way, the strength of the dollar story because of rate differential starts to fade. this was our expectation and how things were playing out until april, then rate issues took over. now we are in the second leg up of that trade. the dollar face. from a long-term perspective, dollar strength when u.s. fiscal deficit is $1 trillion is difficult to put together. jonathan: this was the 2017 narrative. to fund the deficit you really needed substantially higher treasury yields or a weaker dollar. hourly back to that again? k to that bac again? jeffrey: in 2017 the was was lagging. this year it is about the revers

u.s. index has done well. the rest of the major economies have not. day,ly, at the end of the if the u.s. economy does start turning over, that will have an impact on the rest of the world's economy because of the amount of consumption that comes out of the u.s.. manus: the one thing we looked at this morning was emerging markets. emerging markets actually had a bump last week. what we saw was local and foreign currency bonds turn higher. have weto have gone -- gone through the eye of the storm? is the catharsis on its way? we fully priced in to more hikes? that is what jpmorgan are saying. despite the tariffs, it could embolden the president to make geopolitical mistakes. >> i think we have two rate rises nailed in. if people are turning their attention to 2019, how many rate rises we would be likely to see -- but coming back to your question, we are in a position where there is relief amongst the emerging-market. i do not believe we are out of the woods. there are still potential problems along the way, particularly if that causes weakness and emerging-market currencies. nejra: what is y

u.s. economy is doing fine despite the street dispute where do you see the risk. well the risk is not so much for the u.s. economy and even if you impose a lot of tariffs import tariffs in the united states while that will feed too high a price is for consumers the united states people in america will have to pay for it but the u.s. economy is so large that even when it comes to trade with china the impact will be fairly limited so the reason that united states are doing well does nothing to do with china and i don't expect that china asco lation to have a big impact at least not for the time being but that the risk is much more that the political institutional architecture of global trade might actually be damaged from all of this and let's remember that it was the united states that invested a lot of political capital since the end of world war two to set up precisely this architecture that they're now trying to undermine and what i mean by that is an architecture which is based on the rule of law which is based on international cooperation and which is based on

u.s. economy outpacing the rest of the world u.s.being stronger than europe where you saw significant slowdowns since the start of the year. much stronger than emerging markets, which have been struggling in recent months. and you see the fed continuing to raise rates and tight monetary policy while most of the other central banks around , bank of japan, people's bank of china, still either loosening or not tightening monetary policy. and monetarytals policy differentials do favor of stronger dollar. that will remain in place for the near term at least. in the longer run, the widening trade deficit and fiscal deficit in the u.s. would probably way down on the dollar. many areas have steepen but only marginally. this chart shows that yield curve flattening. it's an inversion -- is an inversion in affable, and what does that imply? >> yield curve inversion is very possible. you can have this has missed our to see the long-term growth prospects start to diminish and long-term rates fall. as the fed continues to tighten, it should put up

u.s. economy is right now. the u.s. economy has accelerated from last year.we are cautious that outside growth has slowed. china definitely slowed down a bit. we are seeing monetary policy and conditions diverge. profits, and other brokers are riding high on a wave of interest in marijuana stocks as canada edges closer to recreational use of the drug. for more on this, let's bring in lieu. there is a lot of interest. the g tv charred shows people speculating. hedge positions rising and gaining ground. a lot of people making money from this. >> and the canadian banks obviously near the top of that list. 21% of revenue connected to this. is, the interesting thing the interest is so immense that yesterday aurora and canopy were trading more. i think that goes to show along , they were inns the money at one point. that shows the frenzy. these guys are a prime beneficiary of those. recentlyt was quite that the big banks didn't really want to have anything to do with cannabis companies. this is a sign of maturity for these companies on the market. in with the

u.s. economy growth rate near 3% will slow a half percent next year. we think we are approaching a bite super bowl -- signal for short to intermediate. julie: do think the trade back-and-forth is also going to limits andm it -- limit the fed? mark: it could. we think the u.s.-china trade talks is the biggest thing for downturn in the u.s. economy. there is upside risk for capital spending. it is a two-way risk. if this trade is not alms,ved in a way that it could slow the fed down. julie: is there a higher downside risk of trade not working out? this, and weussed think the downside risk is larger in terms of growth, but we think the upside risk is larger in terms of inflation. we are entering inflationary risks where grow is likely to grow, but in the u.s., inflation risk more to the upside. the bottom line is there will be more volatility for markets. equities will face more headwind going forward. you'll see global growth slow and slightly higher interest rates. the cost pressure is impacting countries. we have analysts across the world. you're seein

u.s. economy. it seems from the jobless numbers later today that the economy is in good shape we're not seeing a huge amount of wage growth not as much as you might expect. why do you think that is why what do what does that mean for the u.s. economy and the fed >> the u.s. has been the place to be. middle america like what's going on they're hiring that number, we'll see what the number is at lunchtime, but the number is overstating the unemployment rate in that those that are employable, probably that number falls to less than 2% probably 1.5%. that makes it tight as a drum. that means you should expect to see wage growth for those who have skills and are employable coming through not necessarily a bad thing in moderation those workers will consume i can't see much of a problem with that. it's a good run. the reason it has not gone out of hand is because technology is taking away some of that bargaining power that labor would have had in the past it's a nice balance. >> i wonder when we follow on

u.s. economy vulnerable?nd italian bond investors run for cover ahead of what is potentially another month of political turmoil. we start with the big issue, pain in emerging markets. >> emerging markets has been hit quite hard. >> global liquidity is actually on the retreat. that will definitely leave traces in emerging markets. >> some of them are in good shape, some of them are not. they are all being tarred by the same brush. what that means is investors who are careful about looking for the nuggets are going to find some really good opportunities. >> we do see some selective value there. what has hurt the emerging markets has been the strong dollar and the fed tightening and higher u.s. interest rates that has caused capital to move out of emerging markets into the u.s. but the point is that a lot of the dollar strength, most of it, who knows when the dollar will peak, but a lot of that has happened. >> we will see points in time where investors start splitting their interest between the good, bad, and u

u.s. economy, the consumer confidence we had, showing the u.s. onomy is booming and with the unemployment rate as low as it is at the moment, i think the fed will tend to just keep hiking rates until they get rates to 3%. then they might stop and pause and assess the outlook from there. i think they're still on a hiking path for the next few quarters >> here's what matters, can the u.s. economy handle a 3% fed funds rate >> i think by the time you get to 3%, in about a year from now, that is going to start to look tight. monetary policy will have gone from being accommodative to all of a sudden starting to be on the verge of being tight as we head into 2020 there's risk that the stimulus coming through on the fiscal side turns into a drag. i think the u.s. economy should hold up well, but the risks start to build once we look beyond the end of 2019 >> mike bell, jpmorgan asset management, the fed coming up later today. appreciate your time >>> to your top corporate story, nike posted a huge quarter earnings beat and 15% profit growth the stock is

u.s. economy contracted by almost three percent and the german economy shrunk by five percent. that brings back memories certainly from my colleague who was a correspondent at the time tell me what was it like on that there a day well it was certainly shocking that particular morning and even in that context oft times at the time that it was very tense because of course there was problems before lehman's bankruptcy but still nobody saw that coming especially with the government not stepping in and people suddenly packing their belongings and schlepping those boxes out of the tower. that was a shock especially when you work on wall street it almost feels like you're part of a family part of a big community bankers financial analysts journalists you know each other so you have kind of a personal relationship and all these people you see them losing their jobs it was terrible news at first but then of course the picture changed a little bit as more developments came out and your heard about the lehman brothers and other mortgage lenders practices lending practices and you know the

u.s. economy. ♪ we more vulnerable today than we were on the eve of the crisis? very good question, one policymakers have to ask themselves. what we do is try to learn the lesson of 2008 and 2009 stop i think as you look at the banking butem there's more capital there are lessons we must continue to press forward on. to think about what phone are in the economy today that could derail how we think about forward motion of the u.s. economy, you will see that it is very much a part of the discussion, to understand the vulnerabilities. premium ont puts a making sure the financial system have high levels of capital that they are able to sustain because we are not likely to know exactly where that will come you willthat is why see efforts to stress the capital banks and understand where the vulnerabilities might be. ♪ i believe that the financial system is less vulnerable than it was. i think dodd-frank and related than theye done more are given credit for, that the financial institutions are stronger than they were. but every crisis almost by definition comes from a d

u.s. economy, or it would be helpful to the u.s. economy to sort of poke a stick in that and try to make it worse. i actually think it's in our interests to try to help them work through those issues and work through those issues by doing what they said they wanted to do several years ago which is open up their economy more and make it more market based. they sort of have gotten stuck and haven't made progress. and i think this approach of trying -- the u.s. versus china only one can win actually -- ironically what it does, it makes the chinese more likely to simply blame the united states for whatever troubles they're encountering instead of looking at what they need to fix it's an easy solution to say, well, trump's attacking china and that's why we're having a tough time >> all right patrick with silver crest asset management and to the bond market we go rick santelli doing what he usually does, tracking the action >> reporter: hi, tyler it's just so fascinating not that many years ago we were scrounging the economy for green shoo

u.s. economy where america is buying things and the economy is growing, that's going to support demand all around the globe. so that's a good thing. now, we do understand, though, when our economy is strong and we are raising rates, that puts up pressure on interest rates around the world and can affect countries, particularly countries that have significant external dollar borrowing. what we try to do is be very transparent about what we're doing and why, and we have been, i believe, and we've also moved quite gradually. you know, i think we've been performing well on that front. there are some countries that are undergoing severe stress, a handful of them, but not most emerging market countries. it's a relatively small number, and those particular countries have particular vulnerabilities which are well known in the form of deficits and significant external dollar borrowings, high inflation, things like that. we'll continue to conduct u.s. monetary policy as transparently as we possibly can, and that's really the best thing we can do along with supporting u.s. growth. i think that answer

u.s. economy. second point is we are at the edge of midterm elections in the u.s. let's never forget that. most of the rhetoric we currently see is very much targeted at voters in the u.s. in view of the upcoming midterm elections. you very much indeed for joining us, wilfried verstraete, chairman of global trade, joining us from shanghai. i want to get you to some of these lines coming out of pyongyang, the talks between kim jong-un and his counterpart there from south korea as well, just saying they will be signing a military agreement at 11:10 a.m. ,ot sure if that is seoul time must be hong kong time. they are going to sign another agreement. david: l we will beive out of south -- we will be live out of south korea. in the meantime, let's bring in paul allen. an update of your first word news. paul. grew again's exports in august while strong imports kept the trade balance and deficit for a second consecutive month. the value of shipments rose 6.6% from one year earlier with point 4%,wth up 50 leaving a deficit of $1.7 billion. japan could be next in president

u.s. economy, which is roaring ahead at the moment. es on in em stay in em, or does it start to bleed into other economies? >> it tends to have been every now and then and tend to emerge every time there seems to be turmoil in emerging markets. we have to look into the linkage. on the one hand, we have the contagion channel, which probably takes more to be disturbed. then, you have direct linkages either for the banking system or through central exposure. that doesn't seem to be particularly large at the moment. on the other hand, this remark from alberto earlier, the third for yield in the past has actually generated significant influence into the emerging markets. as this unwinds, it is normal to see the tension and emerging markets extend. even the discernible direct linkages are not particularly large. tom: alberto, i want to go into what you just mentioned. over into bonds. let me bring up where you go when you have a weaker currency. in this case, it happens to be turkish lira. a chart we have shown many times, which is the bonds

u.s. economy are now coming along. growth. potential in august but the non-farm payrolls showing two hundred one thousand jobs created many more than expected were contributed were a broad range of sectors from construction to wholesalers to business services here also good news from the point of the u.s. economy where wage increases it was the largest annual increase over nine years and point nine percent now that the u.s. economy is doing well for the dollar response go on wall street the dow going down slightly well five hundred one but all are going up here are going down. german equity here the dax gaining weight trading up he was a little less labor market reports. one of art's reporting from frankfurt there now a check in on the petrol and as early as you cryptocurrency reveals it's nowhere to be found the writers news agency says that after four months of research it had as yet to identify a business or institution accepting the federal president maduro introduced the crypto currency with great gusto in february when c

u.s. economy.o right now investors are trying to figure out what the short effect it over the next few months, but if we do have tariffs it would decrease the growth rate potentially. it's a net negative for the world so other things who have to offset that to improve the outlook. >> so medium an long-term is the focus. >> that's right. >> james, thank you very much. >>> new this morning a big break through on the korean peninsula. north korea promising to permanently dismantle its key missile facilities it will also allow outside inspectors to visit its missile testing site the news comes as the leaders from north korea and south korea me meet the two leaders also say they're working on a joint bid for the 2032 olympic games president trump applauding the news saying in part very exciting >>> we are just getting started on "worldwide exchange." up next, tesla turmoil the carmaker under fire after the justice department launched a criminal probe into the company. >>> plus a f.a.n.g. flop could the

u.s. economy is growing >> the u.s. because it has just received a massive fiscal stimulus. the fiscal debt of the u.s. government, the deficit has been brought down from 10% in 2009 and getting down to 3% by 2016 with, of course, the republican party saying the deficits are far, far too big and only some irresponsible democrat like larry summers saying we need to hire a deficit to get it going trump has unleashed a massive, massive increase in the u.s. fiscal debt. it's going from 3%, up to 5%, it will be up to 6% this is a large deficit when an economy was already growing. everything we know about economics, if you put in a huge stimulus to an economy that is already right, you'll make it grow faster. out there you'll create inflation and you'll create increased rates unless you slow it down. as was said yesterday, the u.s. economy is growing very, very strongly but it is fragile because it is based on a really huge fiscal stimulus now simultaneously we are seeing the emergence of a problem which is really, you know, a

u.s. economy is very strong right now but something like this contributes to making the u.s. economy vulnerable again if the u.s. were to fall into recession this could actually in fact be devastating. mass protests have been held in the libyan capital calling on the president and other top politicians to resign crowds gathered on sunday venting their frustration over the dire situation in the country maybe it has been in deep political crisis since armed struggle broke out seven years ago maybe remains divided by rival governments and armed groups. one government is based in tripoli and backed by the u.n. the other is into broke and controls a large parts of the east of the country some since the still controlled by militias and isis is off they helped ignite the violence some european countries are now starting to express their regrets their involvement in the nato led intervention in libya jacqueline reports. in march of two thousand and eleven norway committed to the military intervention in libya leading to the ousting of gaddafi and the ruine country we see today but a s

u.s. and china economic relations can be at together,what hinged the emerging market economies will do fineduce manufactured goods and a lot of commodities that will remain in demand in the u.s. and in china. shery: china now increasing infrastructure spending, monetary easing. how will this affect the economy long-term at a time when they were supposed to be reforming their economy and trying to deal with their huge debt? >> this is a great question. this gets exactly to the dilemma that china's leadership faces. saidnping and his people says we are about quality of growth, not quantity of growth. that was a year ago. now the economy is weaker. there's the trade war threat. they have now subordinated the risk reduction to anything for growth. so that will provide a cushion now. but it will suggest that 2, 3 years down the road, there will be renewed fears about excess debt and leverage in china. amanda: in terms of how we put capital to work there, there was the sense this was the beginning of a time when you could invest meaningfully in the chinese market. will there be a pullback or shou

u.s. economy growth. market participants here and around the world can take great confidence from the powerful action taken today and our broad commitment to the health of the global financial system. we are acting with unprecedented speed, taking unprecedented measures we never thought would be necessary, but they are necessary to get our economy back and on an even keel, and secure the confidence of the future of our markets, our economy, and the economic well-being of all americans. thank you. now i am going to turn the podium over to chairman ben bernanke. >> good morning. before i begin, i want to express my appreciation of my colleagues, secretary paulson and chairman bear, for 30s what has been an extraordinary collaboration. as americans will know, the challenges evident in the financial markets and the economy are large and complex. but i believe that the steps taken today will help to us overcome them. our strategy will continue to evolve and be refined as we adapt new developments and the inevi

u.s. economy after the financial crisis the hike is a vote of confidence in the u.s. economy despite uncertainty on world markets and the trade conflict with china the fed also signaled there might be another rise coming this year and up to three next year. first brioni and scoffed at the new york stock exchange and how did markets like that fresh interest rate hike today the move was widely expected and initially there was a slight uptick to stock prices here on wall street but shortly before the closing bell we did see some pressure piling up especially that the federal reserve is talking about three potential rate hikes in twenty nine t. in sounded a bit more aggressive than market participants had expected and hoped for certainly we have to wait and see those rate hikes are not set in stone but the fed seems to be a bit more aggressive and therefore we saw a bit of a sell off here in afternoon trading is a peculiar phenomenon since the fed started raising interest rates slowly three years ago the euro has been actually gaining ground against the dollar as much as e

u.s. economy as such. it's very much physically driven.ejra: james knightley, thank you so much, chief international economist at ing. let's take a look at what you should be watching today. thanks for joining us. looking ahead, u.k. opposition labor leader jeremy corbyn speak said his party's conference in the report. manus: the government envoys meet in brussels to discuss brexit. bruno le maire warning about the perils of giving the u.k. a good brexit. it would be disastrous for europe. nejra: if you have been asleep all morning, we have the u.s. federal reserve policy decision at 7:00 p.m. u.k. time. manus: the man running the world's biggest sovereign wealth fund is trying to figure out how much damage geopolitical risk might do to his portfolio, but the risk that has not faced him is brexit. the ceo spoke exclusively with bloomberg and chief john micklethwait. is affecting global logistics and these are the major parts of the world. young people want to live and work there hopefully in the future. these are cities with a strong growt

u.s. economy and also saying china just needs to say yes to some major trade development.se there could be headway being made behind closed doors or in back channels? >> it doesn't seem like it it seems like we're stuck with the war of words and the actual tariffs that will be hitting businesses larry kudlow made the argument that moving towards freer trade would be pro growth, but many economists disagree with him you see the imf marking down growth estimates because of the trade tensions that are roiling businesses and businesses are saying eventually we will have to pass on these price increases to our customers. >> what's the next step here what happens next? where do we see -- is it a formal negotiation is it kind of like going through the back channels to chat a bit? what do you expect to see? >> initially there had been some discussion that treasury secretary steven mnuchin might lead a new round of talks with the chinese. that seems to be on hold for now. we will try to find out if there's any possibility of it getting restarted. that's a question, will the two sid

u.s. economy is sufficiently strong and robust to justify the next move on rates. francine: today is also u.s. jobs day and we will see if the strength holds. if you look at the fed cycle, there is a concern that a tax cut effect in the u.s. drops off a cliff in a couple of years. do you wary that the u.s. economy can suddenly turn? jacob: the u.s. economy will turn, but it will not be suddenly. it is important what happens between now and then. the recovery has been a long time in the making, and it is very robust. the job market is extreme a positive. inflation even reaches the objective of the fed, and therefore, yes, we are at a low interest rate relative to where we should be. by the same token, when interest rates rise, of course it will create some negating affect. but the fed needs to prepare ammunition for the next turnaround. at the present time, interest rates are too low to enable it, to deal with the next crisis even when it comes. that is why it will be prudent to raise interest rates. francine: should the fed worry about an inverted yield curve? and d

u.s. economy and the british economy and others. so the process may be bad. get something good done at the end. but the suspicion is this is all down. another downside risk to the growth. julie: what does something good in the end look like? i'm still try to figure that out. especially something that is better than nafta. >> [laughter] it's hard to know. i just don't exactly understand. first of all the hangups with trade balances is hard to understand. especially something that is better thanperhaps reducing tarn parties is fine. but obviously the question is with all of these deals you end up doing deals to help some people. perhaps you help car workers in mexico, but the benefit to the car workers in mexico is higher-priced cars to the american consumer. so the question is are we going to buy off some groups at the expense of higher prices for the u.s. consumer or the canadian consumer or the mexican consumer? so winners and losers we will have to balance one off against the other. not obvious through all of this thatu negotiate this deal the consumer actu

u.s. economy. think we are in that territory so on they go with the ray kyte -- rate hike. there is interaction between the two. francine: how do you differentiate the emerging markets? there are a lot of idiosyncratic stories. if the oil exporters and the oil importers. it structural reforms and non-structural reforms. what's the number one metric to make them different? michael: in the old day, we had the bricks. you have china and companies directly exposed to china and asia almost sort of being different than your classic yield em countries, what you can see a lot of in latin america right now. china -- the economy is too big. , itall of its warts underscores the global growth narrative. there are many things starting to show where it's almost graduating a little bit to em status. you look at the currency weakness you have seen recently. it has not been associated with a big spike in 2015. tom: he nailed a dxy and the weakness of pacific rim currencies two years ago. when you are with bnp parib

u.s. economy.hat thevantage president has at the current time with this trade war is likely to dissipate over the next couple of years. in addition, you continue to see opposition to the tariffs particularly from interest groups and voters. shery: and president trump also threatening auto tariffs on canada if there cannot reach it deal on nafta. we know that the foreign minister has been here all week ourng to negotiate with trade representative, but it doesn't seem to be going anywhere and we are hitting a deadline? joe: let's, we're getting close to it. in order for the deal to be signed before the new mexican president comes into office, they have to get everything tidied up and published by the end of this month, that means that any sort of deal would have to be agreed to by the three principal parties fairly soon, in order to get that all wrapped up in the language agreed upon and published. u.s. is continuing to signal that it was to keep and reserve its ability to use these so-called nationa

u.s. economy.s only taken off as of late. we need to maintain that enthusiasm to maintain the current recovery. i think that's where we talk about things like trade. it's important that pro-growth policy continue and tax cuts may be a component of pro-growth. we worry about sometimes tariffs may actually be a tax hike on the consumer. a tax hike -- neil: we have upped the ante there. i'm wondering, this has happened before and i have seen this play before, where all of a sudden the concern that we are going to get tough with the mexicans and maybe not get a deal and if we get a deal, we will go after the south koreans and the prospect of a deal is shot and we might get a deal. may not be perfect but we do get a deal. the europeans, those discussions are going nowhere, then all of a sudden the commissioner is here and all of a sudden they do have at least the outlines of an agreement. do you think the same will happen here, that the concerns about getting even rougher with china, now including the j

u.s. economy is very strong right now but something like this contributes to making the u.s. economy vulnerable again if the u.s. were to fall into recession this could actually in fact be devastating. with just under two months left before the mid-term elections in the u.s. candidates are making their final pitch to voters but critics have branded some of the latest campaign videos absurd. there is an outrage in washington washington needs more doers and innovators that's why i'm running for u.s. congress. you must say i'm sure it's the. right way to. be joe manchin and cocaine for the sake of the kids or you. actually. think. then mr trump said you're fired and i love that part. of our thought we say this but big foot erotica has become a campaign issue this new drawing of bigfoot is from the instagram account of denver where the man he's a republican running for congress in virginia his opponent democrat leslie cockburn thought voters should know and publicize them. the russian federation is proud to endorse dana rohrabacher for congress you are a true russian. america need

u.s. economy. will see that is very much a part of the discussion.a premium on making sure our financial system have high levels of capital that they are able to sustain whatever shock because we are not likely to know when it will come from. it is how you see efforts to stress the capital banks to understand where those vulnerabilities might be. i hope we keep our attention on that. >> i believe the financial system is less vulnerable than it was. i think that dodd-frank and related things have done more than they are given credit for. the financial institutions are stronger than they were. every crisis almost by definition comes from a direction you are not expecting. have, system will always will come from the same cause. dodd-frank did one thing to make a deal with a certain kind of panic. the power of the fed to act in a now hasd say this land been diminished. i think that was a mistake. ♪ our guest worries that policy makers may not have enough authority to cope. here's what he told me. >> i do know that the regulations don't provide the freedo

u.s. economy? minutes of our last meeting, that is very much a part of the discussion, to understand what vulnerabilities we see. it puts a premium on making sure that our financial system and high levels of capital they are able to sustain whatever shock. we are not likely to know exactly where that will come from and that is why you see efforts to stress the capital of banks and understand where those vulnerabilities might be. i hope we keep our attention on that. i believe the financial system is less vulnerable than it was. dodd-frank and related things have done more th an they are given credit for. the financial institutions are in fact stronger than they were, every crisis almost by definition comes from a direction that you were not expecting. the system will always have a panic from time to time. it will not come from the same place. dodd-frank did one thing in 2000 pages. it probably would make it a little more difficult to deal with a certain kind of panic because it is the power of the

u.s. economy could drop by 2% in the first year of a word spread. the policy statement doesn't mention the trade tensions that you did not mention and what outlook do you have right now. >> sure come i guess any to start by saying we are not optimal for trade policy would not comment on a particular trade actions are not sort of thing. but you will have seen we have this very extensive network of business contacts around the country are reserved to admit that hearing a rising chorus concerns all of the country about disruption of supply chains, material cost increases at a loss of markets, things like that. we've been hearing quite a lot of that in the reserve bank presidents talk about it at the meeting because of the minister we are very transparent on all of that. if you look at the performance of the u.s. economy in aggregate of the national level, it is hard to see much happening at this point. you can look at it the other way and ask above the tariffs that have been announced are applied, would be the fact that the aggregate level. still relat

u.s. economy.ever, a trade were between china and the united states will impact the emerging markets and create a lot of volatility there. point, we do not think china will land in a recessionary environment, even in the worst case scenario of a trade war. they could manage a soft landing, but there will be a lot of pain inflicted on both countries. emerging markets will be at the epicenter of that. haidi: linda, i just want to throw up this chart in comparisons between u.s. and china tech. it is a microcosm of how the broader two markets have performed. chinese valuations at a six-year low, versus in the u.s. we have been talking about the shift from growth to value for a long time. in fact, in february. is it time to start talking about it again? if you are, you assume opportunities for a longer term value investor would be in u.s. and chinese markets. linda: yes, we still do like technology. what you are seeing in technology is a core, underlying secular strength. augmented reality, automated ve

u.s. economy grows if it grows at 4% a couple tenths won't matter. at the prior rate ever 2% a couple texts matter more. and then consumers feel the negative affects in higher prices and slowerroh. por nightly business report steve liesman. >>> the national association of manufacturers representing both big and small operations wants china to end its and i competitive behavior. but the head of the group also said he would rather see the two sides talk and not levy tariffs. >> our issue, of course, is that tariffs drive up the cost of goods heren the united states, driving up the costs for consumers. manufacturers we want to see the administration successful bring china back to the table fo negotiations. we have been calling for a rules based bilateral trade agreement for many months now. and we want to see that done. >> both concerns are being echoed by a major manufacturer in huntsville, alabama where we find brian sullivan tonight. >> at the polaris factory in huntsville, alabama production lines are humsing a the r offd vehicle assembly continues.

u.s. economy is very strong right now but something like this contributes to making the u.s. economy vulnerable again if the u.s. were to fall into recession this could actually in fact be devastating. the u.s. envoy to the united nations has accused russia of violating sanctions against north korea nikki haley made the claim a security council session in new york one russian vessel called the patriot was captured on film transferring refined petroleum to a north korean controlled vessel in april of this year that is un listed the report contains evidence of multiple russian sanction violations we have seen and read this report but when the panel submitted the report to the security council last week we noticed something deeply troubling. the evidence of russian violations that was detailed in the earlier report was missing. regarding the tanker which allegedly violated sanctions the expert group has concluded that it did not complete the claim that we deleted part of the report containing violations by russian companies is not true however these claims fall in line with the p

u.s. economy was in a different place. a $26 oil price was not constructive to the hole u.s.tion story. wtithe fed looks at oil, if and stays0 or $90 there for a couple days, it will be interesting. not focus on core numbers, inflation metrics. i think it will certainly help reinforce -- certainly the energy reproduction story. you hear stories of truckers getting paid $350,000 a year. it will only accelerate the inflation story. the other chart that is adjusting to look at is the break even in inflation. those to be more sensitive to inflation than nominal yields do. yearu look at real 10 yields, for example, which have gone up a lot this year, you may see those starting to contract. what this ultimately suggests, if tariffs drive inflation could ignite a staflationary risk in 2019. shery: let me bring in economic data breaking out of japan. we are getting industrial production month-to-month rising 0.7% in august. we saw a weakness in july, where 0.1%.rial production fell 4% growth. was of 1. we got those floods in japan. it seems recovery has slowed. year on year, still mi