u.s. economy so what's at stake with this election. well i mean history has shown that even if we would get a split congress does not necessarily have to be bad for the u.s. economy let's say that republicans would you lose the majority in congress that would make it probably nearly impossible for us president. to push through new text cuts we also might see more investigations into the u.s. president himself that could pose some uncertainty but also if we look at wall street to what is not necessarily the same as the u.s. economy actually the stock market has done well after midterm elections no matter what the outcome. and the latest economic numbers of course look so good from wall street so where exactly is the gap with main street. well i mean if you travel the country you see for higher signs popping up in many areas in the united states we just last week got the biggest the wage increase in almost a decade the unemployment rate being at the lowest level in almost fifty years of consumer confidence being the highest in about eigh

u.s. economy is firing on all cylinders unemployment is down give us an idea of how people in the u.s. view their situation have they been benefiting. well christopher donald trump has fueled the u.s. economy and of course people have been benefiting from that you've just mentioned the numbers two hundred fifty fifty thousand jobs were created in october alone exceeding all expectations really wages also have gone up more than three percent and that's the fastest growth in a decade so a lot of people are finding their way back into the labor market right now that's the good news the bad news is this is a regional phenomena in many rural areas are excluded from this current economic boom and also this is a boom. in especially when it comes to the tax cuts imposed by by the u.s. administration that are more or less beneficial for people on the top floors of businesses and certain there's a certain sentiment here in the united states that only rich people benefit from this current economic boom rather than poor people also there are risks involved many economists call this boom a sugar ru

u.s. economy is slowing towards 2% real growth >> definitely the signs are there that the u.s. economy is slowing. one of the boosts to the u.s. economy this year was that big fiscal spending plan, the tax cuts announced by the administration earlier on in the year we've seen a big bounce in manufacturing. the labor market trading tight all of those transitory effects are beginning to wane what position does that put the fed in next year >> it puts the fed in the position of saying growth is back towards 2%. the argument about neutral was always the notion that short-term rates would be at some point where the economy would still expand, but not expand that rapidly so that it would force inflationary pressures higher for most they think that the economy around 2% real growth delivers that. whether it's 1.8, 2.3. but in that neighborhood so if they start to see growth go down to that level on the back of the fact that you don't have more stimulus, you do have a higher deficit to finance, you do have a stronger dollar, all of these things, and you do have trade disruptions to trad

u.s. economy, quoting their most recent reports. e economy has trended up as unemployment is registered a 50 year low. the stock market has reached record highs and the economy has had the longest periods of -- growth has economic not been as fast as it was back in with annual increases in the gross domestic product consistently before 4% compared to 4% or better from 1997 to 2000. the u.s. federal budget had surpluses rather than deficits and american's members of the great recession's where democrat's concerns about trump policies may be holding the present optimism in check. so, they write to her been two decades since americans have been as positive about the american economy as they are now in the volatility in the stock market so far appears to have done little to shake their conference. bob, texas, retired, what do you think? caller: i can't tell you how optimistic i am by hearing the last four or so callers. they were spot on and telling it like it is. individual responsibility is where it is at. you have bernie sanders telli

u.s. economy that i look at. aging demographics, productivity growth, this issue, the third one you are talking about is debt, and that is right now, higher levels of debt is a tail wind, actually. you mentioned china earlier. one of the reasons they are achieving 6% is they are using debt, they are leveraging up to achieve it. we leveraged up some in order to achieve it and that helps in the short run. in the longer run, though, that tail wind is likely to become a head wind if we need to moderate our debt growth and it's particularly the case because we have an aging society and the present value of unfunded entitlements is another $54 trillion. so the issue is we are going to have to deal with that debt growth and that will be a head wind, so i'm worried about what we are leaving to our children and grandchildren, and i think the time to be moderating debt growth is sooner rather than later. lastly, it also means with this level of debt, we are a lot more interest rate sensitive in this country and so i've got

u.s. economy as retailers are about to start the busiest month of the year add to that unemployment is at its lowest level in almost thirty years corporate profits are up even wages are starting to rice but the stock market problems could be an indication things are not heading in the right direction if you look at stock markets ahead of historical recessions recessions have in the past frequently been sort of preceded by a period of high stock market volatility that idea has been dismissed by the president's chief economic advisor. recession is so far in the distance i can't see it so what could tip the u.s. economy in the wrong direction the president's trade war with china and others over steel could drive costs up for u.s. consumers the president's tax cuts from last year didn't drive business investment we hope and it's going to push up the national debt and the u.s. central bank the fed has raised interest rates three times this year to stop the u.s. economy overheating that makes american exports more expensive something the president doesn't like i'd like to see the fed with a low

u.s. economy a look at.aging demographics, productivity growth, this issue, the third one you're talking about is debt. and that is right now, higher edlevels of debt is a tailwind, actually.and he mentioned china earlier. one of the reasons they are achieving 6 and a half percent is that they are using debt, they are leveraging up to achieve it. and we have leveraged up some in order to achieve it. and it helps in the short run. in the longer run though, that tailwind is likely to become a headwind if we need to moderate the debt growth and particularly the case because we have an aging society in the present value of intelligence is another -- the issue is, we have to deal with the debt growth and it will be a headwind. i'm lsworried about what we are leaving to leour children and grandchildren. i think the time to be moderating debt growth is sooner rather than later lastly, means with this level of debt, we are more rate sensitive in this country . so i have got to keep that in mind. maria: eddie-- at a

u.s. stock markets recover after a brutal today sello oh well the economy remains high enough that we don't have another president. and the oil is flowing again but we'll tell you why there are problems in the pipeline for south sudan's oil industry. going to welcome back we are cross australia we are watching one spring storm making its way over here towards the eastern seaboard and with it we are going to be picking up some thunderstorms along that area anywhere from brisbane down towards sydney we could be seeing some showers activity behind the system it is going to be much cooler and that's because we do have that southerly flow bringing those cooler that cooler air into the area so for adelaide fifteen degrees no burn a rainy day for you at fifteen degrees as well but once the system pushes through it's going to get even a little bit cooler at thirteen but we're going to see a nice day once that front pushes through for brisbane dryer at about twenty degrees for you and here across north and south island of new zealand it is going to be messy for the next few days unfortunately but th

u.s. economy before next week's midterms kristoff that's right i'm ready to and the final u.s. jobs report before tuesday's vote once again underlined the current strength of the u.s. economy two hundred fifty thousand new jobs were created in october according to the u.s. department of labor now the unemployment rate is steady at three point seven percent meaning the u.s. labor market is considered to be near full employment g.d.p. growth in the third quarter came in at three and a half percent sleeveless slightly down from the previous quarter but still strong and on financial markets president trump has happily taken credit for a steady rise in stocks particularly throughout the sec third second and third quarter that is however market turbulence in recent weeks almost wiped out this year's gains now will the state of the u.s. economy impact today's mid-term elections and if so how let's bring in our financial correspondent yes korda in new york and w.'s washington correspondent of a solid although let me start with you now the data shows that the u.s. economy is firing on a

u.s. economy the democrats in the house will do nothing to really muffle or significantly slow down the economy in the u.s. on the contrary it's likely that they will seek some sort of cooperation with the trump administration at least in some fields like. infrastructure bill not a big one like trump has promised but at still something to keep the economy in the u.s. going what about u.s. government debt something the americans never seem worried about. that's true but people in the financial markets have been quite worried about reckless way that the administration has you know done policies likely to increase the budget deficit in the u.s. and here the market or a majority of people i talked to are hopeful that the democrats in the house will prevent the budget deficit in the u.s. to widen too much that's reflected for example on the bond markets today where the yield on the ten year government bond the u.s. treasury bond has come down somewhat and also the dollar is slightly weaker today it was with the market reaction of those midterms thank you. the german council of economic. predicts the

u.s. economy will go the u.s. economy is doing very well right now it's growing very fast and i think if anything the economy does not need another tax cut and trim has already intimated that maybe that was on the table maybe a middle class tax cut to make the middle class happier because most of the tax cuts fell on wealthier people i think that's off the table now i think that's probably a good thing for the u.s. economy probably cooled it cooled off a little bit there are other initiatives that the congress might be interested in the house democrats are interested in infrastructure spending and maybe president trying to be interested in some sort of compromise in this direction so that's one domestic flashpoint issue of course internationally speaking with also been talking a lot about trump's trade policies what can we now expect in the can we expect a fed expansion all of that trade war and what will the result of this mid-term election essentially mean for countries like germany well to the extent that trump

u.s. economy while playing down the market impact of u.s.. >> i am not a big believer that will have a big impact on policy or action are washington where we are for the next two years. spanish banks bump. the supreme court reverses earlier decision on mortgage taxes. good morning and welcome. this is the european open, i'm anna edwards. let's look at the individual stocks. what is moving these markets the morning after the midterms? if you stayed up late, welcome to the morning. this is the picture we have across equity markets. all about the midterms, some companies are reporting numbers. we see that clearly. delivery hero up by over 7%. ahold up by 5.4%. and the spanish banks really getting a boost as the senate change its view on who is going to pay a particular mortgage tax. they had been threatening to make the banks pay and do it retroactively but it looks like that will be the case. two different spanish banks move higher on that. we talked to the management at siemen also up. -- is itdo with thee numbers,h the vestas is a to do with

u.s. economy and the data proves it out, u.s. economy is leading the global economy out of that great recession. looks to continue. right now they will continue to stay on the preordained rate hike in december and a couple more next year. shery: there are concerns if we see the balance sheet unwind we could see liquidity being drained from the financial markets. the the chairman is not concerned. you think the unwinding is going very well. is that what you are seeing? we are still seeing good options. even though some of the central banks are set -- stepping away and not buying as much of the u.s. treasury auctions, rates, look at the bond rates. they have -- we are seeing rates while they have moved up a slightly, we are still seeing a flat curve. they are able to continue the auctions pretty much without any real problems. so for that reason, interest rates and as far as the liquidity in the market continues -- even though the fed is pulling back and is not a buyer of bonds, i think right now the bond market is healthy. one of t

u.s. economy as retailers are about to start the busiest month of the year add to that unemployment is at its lowest level in almost thirty years corporate profits are up even wages are starting to rice but the stock market problems could be an indication things are not heading in the right direction if you look at stock markets ahead of historical recessions recessions have in the past frequently been so the preceded by a period of high stock market volatility that idea has been dismissed by the president's chief economic advisor. recession so far in the distance i can see so what could tip the u.s. economy in the wrong direction the president's trade war with china and others over steel could drive costs up for u.s. consumers the president's tax cuts from last year didn't drive business investment the way he hoped and is going to push up the national debt and the u.s. central bank the fed has raised interest rates three times this year to stop the u.s. economy overheating that makes american exports more expensive something the president doesn't like i'd like to see the fed with a lower

u.s. economy. saw in 2015 we sought really notable saw a really notable drop in crude particularly that was really driven in our view of the fear of the real slowdown of the u.s. as in this really worried about global demand. they said they expect oil to finish the day higher. do you expect them to finish their day higher.ç and the fact that they have turnaround on this. does it mean the global economy will be okay. the global economy certainly there is some fears that you have seen a slowdown there. but the u.s. economy and the strength is really starting to stand out. i think that's really the key. when they speak. it will be interesting to point this out. the u.s. is really starting to stand out from a growth perspective. they had been concerns with what apple has been saying about handset sales. i big debate out there in the market about what is the fundamental economic growth. great to see you. thank you for having me.ç starbucks is doing something unpopular. trimming their workforce. it is

u.s. economy and looking ahead as court in new york thank you. the u.k. leaving the european union with no deal would have devastating consequences for the british economy that's the consensus of both a government report and an analysis by the bank of england in any case britain would be poorer outside the block both reports suggest but a disorderly divorce what multiply the negative impact in two weeks from now british m.p.'s are set to vote on prime minister tories a maze of plan. a no deal bracks it would hit britain's economy hard the bank of england predicts dramatic consequences if that happens. by the end of twenty twenty three g.d.p. is more than ten percent lower in the disorderly scenario compared to that made twenty sixteen trillion the bank also said if the island nation has to leave the e.u. and a hard break said the pound could plummet twenty five percent against other major currencies that's a worst case scenario it says but possible if the country doesn't agree to a deal even so it's still far from clear that theresa may will be able to pu

u.s. economy by early next year. o in effect, we have a short-term hit in a gdp and then economy gets triggered again. when do you think that will be? marc: i think that will happen earlier. some people need their vehicles replaced immediately. we saw a big increase in auto sales area some of these things have to be done immediately and some could be dragged out. those also construction, thousand of structures in needs rebuilding. alix: the one thing that would come up with the infrastructure. what is your first case on some kind of agreement in washington on that? marc: there is this policy in the u.s., fiscal policy has to be tighter -- i am assure that democrats will find that fiscal austerity plays well in the polls. i think infrastructure, mick in the middle class tax cuts permanent, these are things that democrats may be able to get behind. i think we will get a policy mix of expanding fiscal policy, tighter monetary policy, which is why i am so bullish on the dollar, even with the gains today. alix: we will get

u.s. economy is strong but could face headwinds next year. kers way how far at how fast to raise rates. candyland economy smoothly? this is bloomberg. ♪ matt: welcome back to "bloomberg markets: european open." chairmanhe u.s., fed jerome powell says the economy is strong the could face headwinds next year as policymakers way how far and fast to raise interest rates. he spoke yesterday at a q&a in dallas. typicalenges that are of this point in a cycle, we how to be thinking about much further to raise rates and the pace at which people raise rates. the way we are approaching that is looking very carefully at how the markets and the economy and business context are reacting to our policy. is still withhmed us. we see very slight gains year to date after the big equity tumble that we saw the past month. now the s&p 500 is up about 1% your today. date.r to it doesn't seem the fed is concerned with equity prices. will that be the end of the bull run? will the fed raises bring u.s. equity markets down? salman: i am of the view that for the bull run

u.s. economy may be growing but the u.s. y is fairly unique and as much as it is not as export reliant for as much of a share of its gdp as the rest of the world. that is why trade is a key issue, that is why there is such an intense focus on the dinner saturday night between president president trump and the hope they can resolve their differences and lay the groundwork for an agreement. a revised trading relationship and investment relationship between china and the u.s. president micron is here from france, mbs is here from saudi arabia, leaders from around the world but it comes down to the xi-trump dinner on saturday. >> this is bloomberg. ♪ i am a family man. i am a techie dad. i believe the best technology should feel effortless. like magic. at comcast, it's my job to develop, apps and tools that simplify your experience. my name is mike, i'm in product development at comcast. we're working to make things simple, easy and awesome. grexit is a 30 p.m. in hong kong, we are an hour away from the opening of trading day. so

u.s. economy, whether global growth and slowing growth will impact the u.s. my and therefore whether there's a steady pace of rate rises. there's a danger of , it's beenon suggested at the last fed meeting that there will be further rate rises but i think there are pretty to people who expect rate rises into 2020. manus: the other thing you pickup from the conversation between kaplan and powell, you talk about credit spreads, powell is not overly worried that credit spreads. scott maynard in his tweet talking about the sliding rate of investment credit has begun. what do you make of this debate? powell being sanguine about credit spreads. the situation as i see it is that we have seen some widening in investment grade credit spreads, but considering how tight they were at the lows, that is hardly surprising, as some companies are beginning to report a more challenging trading environment. i think what we have to watch is whether rates in company start picking up and what impact that has in terms of the relationship between investment grade and high yields. wha

u.s. economy will start slowing down in 2019. >> maybe jay powell backs up a bit. >> he is acknowledging theadwinds. >> the question is how hard should they be having a break? >> more than three. >> three. >> absolutely not. do they stop in 2019? bsolutely. >> rising rates are bad for existing prices and really good for long-term returns and fixed income. >> by biggest concern is volatility will continue for 2019. unfortunately the volatility in financial markets has potential to be the proximate cause for the end of the economic cycle. >> in 2019, it will be about let's take uncertainty off the table. onathan: joining me is ira jersey, noelle corum and josé rasco. chief investment strategist at hsbc. great to have you with us. noelle, breakevens have rolled over. normal yields have declined. i want a better understanding what degree we are pricing in expectations? noelle: we think the market is beginning to price in moderate growth in year and and in 2019. q1 and q2 will be supported by fiscal policy and a healthy consumer tight labor market. but q3 and q4, fiscal policy 2.0 isn't necessar

u.s. economy the democrats in the house will likely not do anything in order to muffle or slow down the economy in the u.s. on the contrary it's likely that they will sort of try to cooperate even with the administration for example with an infrastructure bill not a huge one like donald trump had promised but at least something to keep the economy in the u.s. going and of course the labor market too while we're talking about the u.s. economy what about something like state deads that has never really seem to be top of the agenda for any president. that's true but people here are convinced that political gridlock is also a positive in terms of american debt it means more checks and balances the u.s. president donald trump will not be able in future to increase that to spend to increase the budget deficit as recklessly as he has done during the first two years of his presidency ok interesting stuff conor posing for us thank you very much. the german council of economic experts predicts the national economy to grow by only one point six percent this year as down from a previous estimate of two poi

u.s. economy ie, there's a big fat zero, whatever it may be what does that do to the u.s. economy? what does it do to u.s. treasuries >> i cannot see that premise of the question being real. >> this is a stated aim of the president of the united states how can you say it's not a premise that's real. >> the majority of the u.s. trade deficit is simply the trade deficit with china getting that to zero is unreal istic >> let's say he makes some partial success towards that what does that do to the u.s. economy, the costs of the u.s. economy, and what does it do to the holdings of u.s. treasuries? >> the trade deficit with china is macro economically not the important thing. if you get a shrinkage in the overall trade deficit, that could be significant that would mean a smaller current account deficit, less demand for dollars, a bit -- i guess supportive of treasuries, which means that rates in the u.s. are probably likely to go up a little bit faster than one would expect again, the premise of the question is wide-reaching. for me, trade deficits are a function of macro economics. you

u.s. economy seems to be in good shape.hat does this assessment mean for the federal reserve's intention to further raise interest rates? jens: it still seems pretty likely that we see the fourth interest rate increase at the last fed meeting in december. it would be the ninth interest rate increase since december of 2015. and that's the important thing. fed chairman jerome powell mentioned that looking at next year, the course is not set, but reserve, will watch closely the data, meaning how the financial markets are doing, how the economy is doing. so that sounds a bit less aggressive than what we have heard recently from the federal reserve. christoph: and jens, before jerome powell was able to give his speech and before the fed issued its report, president trump yet again attacked the fed and its policy. why does he keep doing that? jens: well, again and again, the president is saying that the polilicy of the federal reserves the biggest threat to the economy. not tariffs, not china, but the federal reserve. well, it is

u.s. economy. seenigh oil price we have happened at a time when the u.s. onomy has changed its relationship with oil. an oilsly we have seen dependence economy that depends on imports. now we have seen the u.s. is a producer of oil. it makes it difficult to compare how the u.s. performs with history. havegher oil prices restimulated investment into the industry. that has been positive for activity. we have seen an impact on higher headline inflation. , we view higher oil prices as good news for the economy. for the global economy, it is flipped. oil consumers finding it tougher. we have seen that impact in emerging markets where countries with large current account deficit, oil importers have struggled. that was part of the story when emerging-market currencies were under pressure. anna: if you want to stick to long-term structural trends, what are your longer-term thoughts? >> its long-term investors and not overly enchanted by the , prices they can control, it is capital attentive. i think we are at that moment controlled.is being long-term, we would look

the fed is seeing all this data, aware of the economy outside of the u.s. is slowing faster than we are here. they're going to take that onboard. one other wrinkle that hasn't been brought up yet is the fed's balance sheet. how many rate hikes should the fed do next year, you have to remember this is a different cycle. we have to think about fed tightening not just through short-term rates but through the removal of liquidity as it reduces its balance sheet. two rate hikes mean something different this time around >> how is housing doing? >> it's hurting a bit. >> the stocks are down >> autos are up 1% in the month of october >> how is oil doing? >> oil is down $57 >> how are chips doing >> chips i don't know. >> chips are not doing well. those areas are undeniably -- >> hold on, scott, are you talking about the stock levels or the earnings of these companies? autos have slowed. >> scott, you know i love you but your biggest piece of evidence is the 5% decline from the all-time high in october 3rd in the stock market. not a whole lot of economic data that j

u.s. economy on its own is still extremely strong. they are still benefiting from the tax cuts and the big question for 2019 will the weather we will see more fiscal stimulus in the u.s., whether there will be infrastructure investment or not. or the u.s., the eurozone hardly matters. of course an important trading partner. if the euro zone economy would weaken further, this would make the dollar even stronger, so that could be a marginal negative impact for the economy. but what we have seen over the past 10 years, the u.s. was able to grow without a strong euro, so this slowdown that we might see in the eurozone may not have a big impact on the u.s. economy. guy: i have the eurozone composite pmi on the board, it's been going down for quite some time. how much of what we are seeing in terms of the eurozone slow down, in particular the german slowdown, has to do with china? carsten: it has to do with of growth cooling dynamics in emerging economies. then we had a couple of one offs, of then germany third-quar gdp, a lot is driven by t

u.s. economy is not the same as the u.s. markets and the problem comes down to margins, we're looking at peak margins and all of these concerns about trade wars, wages, about the u.s. dollar i mean talk about the u.s. dollar impacting tech stocks for example. all of that is with the market concerned about despite strong growth. >> the market said we're at peak margin over the past five years, i might be able to afford in -- maybe. >> but the time to talk about it is now. >> let me ask the group, do the investors trust the fed on rates? i'm not so sure they do. do ceos -- >> you're saying do investors trust the fed? >> i'm not so sure. >> everybody says fed kills bull markets. that's not true. recessions kill bull markets it's not brought on by the fed recessions are a collapse of economic activity. i don't ever believe -- >> recessions can be brought on by the fed. >> you're saying they made a mistake, they went too far and that's the reason we jumped into a recession. >> this is naturally what happens. >> now the economy is

u.s. economy seems to be in good shape what does this assessment mean for the federal reserve's intention to further raise interest rates. it still seems pretty likely that we see the fourth interest rate increase and at the last meeting in december it would be the ninth of interest rate increase since december of twenty fifteen but then and that's the important thing a fed chairman. mentioned that looking at next year the course is not set but that they have been in the federal reserve will watch closely at the data meaning how the financial markets are doing how the economy is doing so that sounds a bit less aggressive than what we've heard recently from the federal reserve and yet before jerome paul was able to give a speech and before the fed issued its report president trump yet again attacked the fed and its policy why does he keep doing that. well again and again the president is saying that the policy of the federal reserve is the biggest threat to the economy not cherubs not china but the federal reserve well it is true to a certain degree that if you see higher interest rates es

u.s. economy and oil prices have shifted so that now the u.s. trip -- benefits from the higher oil prices. ,: you are right. what we saw in 2016 is adp growth went down to 1.6%. spending did not increase but you saw investment collapsing back then. i think we have to be quite careful. we are not at dangerous levels. i think we should not, if we see oil prices going down to $50, that could start to be dangerous for u.s. growth since many investment projects could be cut. what we see with oil prices is that the state of texas, that is spreads.s. gdp, but it throughout the economy, capital goods and so on, there is no system around the shale oil story. anna: thank you. for us, the european open is next. we have the bayer numbers, we will be speaking to the ceo exclusively later this morning on the european art -- market open program. it is all about the chemicals and all about the downstream for certain companies. we have the adnoc ceo, picking up his interview and more interviews to come throughout the day. joining us to talk a little bit more abo

u.s. economy. in an exclusive interview with erik schatzker, david solomon also downplayed the market impacts of the midterm election. david: i think the biggest risk right now is actually in overheating, and so the question is, can the fed in the context of how it marches forward monetary policy, can it continue to normalize rates in a way where they strike the right balance and we have a softer landing? and they may a may not. theor: we will bring you best of the conversation from the second day of the economy forum in singapore here on bloomberg television. largest banksn's have soared after the country's supreme court said they should not be liable for mortgage stamps to be payments, saving them billions of euros in back taxes. the news triggered a backlash on social media, with the antiestablishment party tweeting the people have won, have lost." global news 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am taylor riggs. this is bloomberg. fran

u.s. economy can just create 200,000 jobs a month.go through state to state full employment, you end up with about 100,000 new jobs, which is consistent with 2% growth. the imf is predicting 2.2% next year, which complete me makes sense. now president trump -- which completely makes sense. now president trump once more. -- wants more. this won't be having any substantial effects on the real economy in the u.s. >> patrick, we are out of time. thank you so much for being with us. up, we have a bloomberg exclusive interview with morgan stanley ceo james gorman. that is tuesday in new york. this is bloomberg. ♪ g. ♪ ♪ >> good morning we are in sydney. good evening from bloomberg's global headquarters in new york. >> welcome to daybreak asia. ♪ >> the top stories this tuesday. asia-pacific racquets facing decline. they are in their territories. apple supplies will be feeling the heat amid new reports that production numbers are being

u.s. economy growing at 3%. global economy growing at 3.1%. going back to risk, we have grown loans in the past year, north of 5%, 6%. in parts, approaching 7%. demand is there, global economy is good, u.s. economy is strong. we have not seen a significant slowdown in terms of loan demand. i would say based on where we are and what we see, i think, we are ok. i think it becomes data dependent. if we get inverted because of recessionary fears, and those come to fruition or start to bear out, you could see things slow quickly. david: do you have concern about the corporate balance sheet? how much leverage has been taken on? we're approaching record number of 72%. as a percentage of gdp. you have tentacles in so much of do youiness community, see potential of cracks developing? michael: as we look at corporate balance sheets today, they are relatively healthy. one thing people do you see potential of miss or do not calculate is the impact of the tax cuts. right? when you think about, all of a get significant more a lot of of after-tax net income