u.s. economy. 's if the global economy drags it down, and i think the fed's been clear about that recently. maria: and we're going to get the chinese purchasing managers index this weekend. >> it's important. maria: which will give us an indicator of how the chinese economy is doing. can the u.s. keep growing the way it is even with what's happening in china? >> so i think people understand that the u.s. is going to -- we've gone through tremendous growth last year. potential growth in the u.s. is about two. the fiscal stimulus got us well above that. we're moderating to around potential the fiscal push now in this year is significantly less and maybe about neutral. so, you know, we should grow at about where we're growing. i think there is the potential, when interest rates come down like they've come down, you're now going to improve the housing market which ises hugely important to the u.s. economy. it'll improve the auto market. i think the u.s. economy's going to grow faster. you know, it's an

u.s. economy. with us, victoria fernandez of crossmark global investments and lale topcuoglu of j o hambro capital management limited. what are we expecting and how important is it? is there expectation should be an increase in the cpi numbers. that can change how the fed looks at the policy. cpi is one of the data indicators. overall, there is no data that suggest the u.s. economy is slowing -- now data that suggest yo the u.s. economy slowing. -- overall, there is now data that suggest the u.s. economy is slowing. victoria: we don't have a concern of recession at this point. we've had some issues. goods, ismble manufacturing have been on the downside. the nonmanufacturing numbers have been good. the labor and jobs number have been good. --are still three months consumer confidence has been higher and retail sales were a bit higher in january as well. cpi is key because powell and the fed have mentioned that as reasons they can hold back on raising rates. key inlter component is that cpi number. a

u.s. economy is strong. omy not as strong as we would like to see it. >> bret: as we talk about the bought, there's a lot of concern about ai i artificial intelligence and jobs for americans but how do you look at that? >> fred: i'm on the optimistic side, you know, thinking back 80 years, the premier airplane in the sky and the first airplane could make money on its own. d.c. three could carry 30 people. 1500 miles. it could fly about 150 miles an hour. next week boeing will rollout the triple sun 9, 600 miles an hour and carries 420 people and there are two copilots that comply 7,500 miles. most of the time, the plane is flown by a robot. on auto pilot. so productivity is important. >> bret: we have a chart come i think to reference about labor force from 1840-2010. what do you see on the charge? >> fred: if you were having this conversation a hundred years ago, you would be very concerned if you were and an economist looking at the employment in agriculture sector. >> bret: the redline here. >> fred: the r

u.s. economy. >> if the u.s. the rest of the world necessarily follow >> i would say the rest of the world should not be overoptimistic so this convergence, divergence, we get these stories every four, five years but i think after 2008, after 2014, 2015 it's all been proven there is no decoupling between the u.s the important thing is does the u.s. slow risk aversion and the dollar strengthen at the same time, that was devastating for emerging markets last year so i think we're looking for this year if the u.s. economy trudges along in a range as long as the dollar doesn't accelerate in the same way it did last year, then em should be okay. >> we've been asking about the u.s. and china your focus tends to be the uk. i want to ask you about brexit so sorry to do this to you on a monday morning, ahead of the march 29th deadline, what should people be watching most closely, do you think >> so firstly, not too keen to adding to sterling longs these levels that reflects sterling was underowned second, many scenarios a

u.s. economy. well look we live increasingly in a global economy right now and what happens in china and frankly what happens in europe affects what's happened united states we've seen a slowdown in the u.s. economy in the fourth quarter and many economists believe that all will continue slow in twenty nine hundred so i think it certainly behooves both countries the united states and china to resolve their trade differences that's complicated though because the they're based on serious issues regarding obviously the tariffs that the president has imposed as walls of intellectual property rights opening up of markets and so i know that the economic slowdown will certainly probably a hasten china looking for the deal but they're not going to do that unless it's in their own interest so you think that this slowdown does give president trump more leverage to get these concessions out of the chinese government well look i think on the domestic side as well you see increasingly farmer suffering losses her

u.s. economy it's one of the companies that presidents talk about when they're talking about u.s. exports and how the u.s. economy is doing boeing has a network of suppliers all of them would be affected by this best selling plane if something were to happen in the production so boeing is going to be anxious to find out exactly what the problem is here because they're going to want to put that problem to bed whether that means going back in to each and every one of these planes and fixing something that is wrong with it or whether that simply means letting the public know about a problem that in their minds might be completely unrelated to the manufacture of that plane but right now they want to get down to the bottom of it and those boxes that you were talking about that have been discovered will be key to finding that out ok good to talk to you john hendren in chicago for us to send us in your thoughts as well once you hash tag you're getting plenty of. comments and on facebook not all of them ones i would actually read out just remember this is a very serious situation the one

matt the concern is not the u.s. : economy. there is a lot of strength and tailwinds in the u.s. economy. if you are bearish, you have to look at europe and china. i would be most nervous about, can china get its economy going. that is the pessimistic. have to buy into to take duration risk. jonathan: great to have you with us. coming up, the auction block. brazil's president seeing his first global bond sale 48 hours after the dovish announcement. the conversation is coming up next. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ jonathan: i am jonathan ferro. i want to go to the auction block where we begin in the united states where demand continues to govern debt. the treasury selling $11 billion in 10 year inflation protected notes. emerging markets doubled down, leading brazil to its first global bond sale under bolsonaro. 4.7% lower than the initial target and five-year credit, glaxosmithkline joining the recent wave of high-grade corporate bond issuers to issue new debts. this price across three trenches, three, five and 10 year notes. still with me around the table is matt egan, jose rasco and lu

u.s. economy well look we live increasingly in a global economy right now and what happens in china and frankly what happens in europe affects what's happened united states we've seen a slowdown in the u.s. economy in the fourth quarter and many economists believe that all will continue slow.

u.s. economy has been performing well, the global economy is slowing.icials are telling us. you have a strong labor market, you have weak retail sales. a good foundation for the economy to keep growing. maybe not like 2018, but something north of 2% in 2019. this is another important point he has made. i don't know how many times over the last them this question and how many times he will answer it, did you stop raising rates because of president trump? no. i think we can take him at his word. haidi: he is going to be around for the rest of his four year term. does the february jobs report support the patience theory? kathleen: it's too early to say it opens a door to a cut. a lot of traders are asking these questions. when you add the slowdown in europe and questions over china's economy, what you suddenly see in the u.s. jobs report is we may have a slow, but not a recession. this is a chart that shows the change in payroll in february that was so shocking. after going up a revised 311,000 in january, payrolls only rose 20,000. we haven't seen anythin

u.s. economy well look we live increasingly in a global economy right now and what happens in china and frankly what happens in europe affects what's happened united states we've seen a slowdown in the u.s. economy in the fourth quarter and many economists believe that all will continue slow in twenty nineteen so i think it certainly behooves both countries the united states and china to resolve their trade differences that's complicated though because they're based on so. serious issues regarding obviously the tariffs that the president has imposed as walls of intellectual property rights opening up of markets and so i know that the economic slowdown will certainly probably hasten china looking for the deal but they're not going to do that unless it's in their own interest so you think that this slowdown does give president trump more leverage to get these concessions out of the chinese government well look i think on the domestic side as well you see increasingly farmer suffering losses here in the united states the trade deficit figures came out in the united states this week it's the highes

u.s. economy is showing signs of a slowdown we go live to our correspondent on wall street. also on the show arch enemies turn into allies b.m.w. and decides to ride together they've teamed up to develop the next generation autonomy. and the kashmir crisis disrupt international air travel with major airlines in southeast asia or through routes or cancel flights to and from europe. welcome to the w business i'm joined in and berlin thank you for joining us now the u.s. economy grew in the fourth quarter at its slowest pace since the beginning of twenty eighteen indicating that the boom fueled by tax cuts and fiscal stimulus could be fading u.s. g.d.p. expanded by two point six percent in the final three months of last year down from three point four percent in the previous quarter despite the slowdown these figures still beat expectations but analysts calling it a decent result more sluggish rate of expansion however is untested pated going forward. yes carthage joins us now from wall street to break the saul down good to see there you are now those figures they weren't exact

u.s. economies. we saw the fed chair say that there are some headwinds partly because a worldwide lack of growth. german pmi numbers outcome a disappointing this morning. in your point of view, are you seeing a softening in u.s. economy? mary: we think it will be about the same as last year. we continue to see pricing pressure, and that is why we are taking steps to make sure we are keeping general motors as a strong company. that will only put us to do things like we are doing today, announcing new products, new technology that creates new jobs. our focus is. today in the u.s., we do enjoy a stronger economy and we want to capitalize on that. as you know, this is an industry under dramatic transformation. but we are taking the steps and being responsible to make sure we continue to grow in these aeas and continued in have strong u.s. manufacturing base that creates good paying jobs for the united states. vonnie: that was the gm ceo mary barra, speaking about 20 miles north of detroit. the company ha

u.s. economy. there's a lot of strength and tailwinds in the u.s. economy. you're very bearish, you have to look at europe and china. i'd be most nervous about, can china get its economy going? that's the pessimistic view you would have to buy into take a lot of risk in this market. jonathan: great to have you with us. you're sticking with us. coming up on this program, the auction block. brazil's president seeing his first global bond sale 48 hours after powell's dovish announcement. that conversation is coming up next. this is bloomberg real yield. ♪ jonathan: i'm jonathan ferro. this is "bloomberg real yield." i want to go to the auction now, where we begin right here in the united states, where demand continues to government debt. the treasury selling $11 billion in 10 year inflation protected notes at a yield of zero .578%, the lowest raw since january of 2018. emerging markets, chairman powell doubled down, leading brazil to its first global bond sale under bolsonaro. pricing to yield 4.7% lower than its initial target. finally in credit, glaxosmithkli

u.s. economy falter and many do see a slow-down this year.resident's own policies help strengthen the dollar he complained about meanwhile, four of the five fed governors are trump nominees so it's just a little bit other worldly, brian the president talked about his fed chairman as some, quote, unknown gentleman. >> you know, steve, here is the thing, i know you talk to fed insiders both on and off the record is there any indication from your reporting that this kind of criticism is in any way getting to them, altering their thinking, altering their actions? >> i think, brian, we'll talk a lot about that quarter point hike in december whether or not the fed might have not done it had the president not criticized the federal reserve. i think they would have probably still done it any way, but it was probably a close call. and one that the fed would have taken a lot of criticism to knuckling under to political reality or political talk if they had not done it, so i think it's an important issue. i think there's a reason why over a 24-year peri

u.s. economy. there's the services sector and the goods sector the services sector is driven heavily by the consumer. the consumer are getting pay increases, we're seeing wage inflation pick up. in the industrial side trends are holding in there we're not seeing it weaken to either of those two components of the u.s. economy. >> is the technology the best place to put u.s. money? >> we believe so we're talking about global economic slow down we believe investors should take back economic -- those companies dependent upon economic success, technology, communication services, the new sector, those are companies that drive their own demand they have products consumers want and businesses need. >> that's a big statement, patrick. are you saying technology lives outside of those concerns in some ways. >> in some ways. and i'm not going to say all technology companies do. certainly semis have a cyclical cycle but for the most part when you look at software, internet services, there are a big portion that

u.s. economy is doing well despite the actions of its central bank.ere are highlights from his two hours speech. we have a gentleman who likes a very strong dollar, but i want a dollar that's going to be great for our country, not a dollar that is so strong it is prohibitive for us to be dealing with other nations and taking their business. has an incredible economic future if they make a deal. but they don't have any economic future if they have no -- if they have nuclear weapons. the relationship seems to be very strong. that is important, especially when we are dealing with this kind of a situation. collusion with russia. the collusion delusion. we are going to go into his finances. these people are sick. get into that now with mark cudmore, our bloomberg mliv strategist. we are going to get peak trump when he is talking to cpac. he does bring up jay powell. he does bring up the dollar again. what do you expect markets to make of this? markets's comments on have a diminishing marginal impact. when he talked about the dollar a year ago it had a big

u.s. economy to go into recession in 2020.pens, you would see a deep steepening of the curve. david: that is not a steepening you want. there is this dichotomy that the u.s. economy is really strong. the nicest house in a bad neighborhood. if we have spillovers from the international economy, especially china's debt situation, if that spills over to the global economy, i don't think we would escape a recession. --x: is there another case what do you do with bonds, for example? subadra: that's what is a struggle. a good example is the last employment number -- we saw a decent selloff in bonds. to anchor continue treasury yields across the curve. it is a global world. you are seeing more re-coupling of global bond yields. last year, the story was decoupling of global bond yields. now, you are starting to see more re-coupling. correlation will be very much in play. alix: subadra rajappa and constance hunter will be sticking with us. coming up, stocks retreat. break -- head to break, we are waiting for spacex's dragon capsule to h

u.s. economy.re also the targets that the president of the united states has chosen often to focus on over the last few days. question is, why? joining me now is a man who might have an answer. anthony scaramucci, former white house communications officer and author of trump, the blue collar -- when you hear the president going after john mccain at an official white house event, are you proud of the president? >> i don't like it at all. i'm surprised that he's doing it. and so what i would say to him, i'm not there of course, but what i would say to him is my grandfather used to say when you hit a rock, you hit it ten, 20 times the rock doesn't move. but then on maybe the 50th time the rock blows up, but you don't know which one of those hits actually blew up the rock. so he's hitting something that is socially unnatural. and so what is that? you're attacking somebody that died seven months ago. now, i understand the point, i understand the grievance that the president's bringing up. but you're not

u.s. economy is doing well, employment is doing well, and markets are healthier. manus: some people say we dodge the bullet growth on friday in terms of the gdp numbers. surveys, some of the we have this in the library, the atlanta and new york fed surveys, they aren't as if yousef. there is an interesting downturn in some of the recent data. you think about what happened at the end of last year, early this year when you had the business with the government shutdown, when you had the fed tightening, it is surprising that growth is so strong as you look in the employment data. it is not a disaster. tohink the fed still wants create as much room as possible to be able to cut when things do take a downturn. manus: do get the sense that powell has boxed himself in. it is a tricky game to play. he is really pushing the boundaries on what is acceptable to say, but he does have market supporting him. when you have markets the strong, unemployment this low, it does create a little room. he has to be careful. he has that to weigh risks. i'm prepared to walk away. he's not

u.s. economy is still expanding. there is a huge amount still to be seen. we mark to see -- we might start to see better data out of the u.s. and china. i think there's a multitude of factors including the tariff situation. 2.1%nk to predict the yield is pretty aggressive. is it possible? i want to see them -- is it possible? the bottom line for investors should be yields are low and they will remain low. environmentortive from an overall yield perspective. short-term you might be long a little bit. you are at the end of the cycle. does the fed raise rates anymore? this is the end of the cycle. look at the curve inversion. that is the only dog that is barking right now. move ond expect it to the back of the u.s. economy. on oneit only showing up very specific point in global markets? marketeems like the bond is listening to what the fed is saying. when they came out with a iswing reports, whether it lower gep, lower inflation, lowering their dot plots, all of that was negative on the marketplace and i think that is what the bond market is sensing. jonathan:

u.s. economy is going gangbusters, right? owing i'm patient with the trade talks between u.s. and china. larry kudlow tried to alleviate the concerns on fox news last night, saying a deal is close. >> if china doesn't live up to its agreement, we have the right not only to keep tariffs but to raise tariffs and they will not retaliate. now, that's breakthrough stuff. we'll see if president xi agrees to that, but right now we are optimistic and this is probably closer than we've ever been before. ashley: well, of course there are other reasons to make investors nervous. housing of course being one of them. new home sales eked out a tiny gain, reinforcing a weak market. let's bring in mitch h rochell d courtney domingus. mitch, let me begin with you, this u.s./china cloud has been hanging over the markets for quite some time. if we can get the deal done, everyone's happy, where can the market go from there? >> i think the market is pausing right now. we saw a run-up, what happened in the fourth quarter is we were oversold. beginn

u.s. economy growing less than 3% this year likely. t quarter can be less than 1% and he has no choice but to focus on growth overseas because it is a big part of the global economy. >> you didn't mention the word trade or tariffs or any of that in the interview, though should he have doesn't that have an interplay in what's going on with the u.s. and china and global growth in general? >> maybe that was his way of siting the slow down in china and europe as saying, yeah, trade had an influence on this. >> he was asked if 4% growth is totally out of the cards he didn't say it wasn't but he sort of said we could have it here and there what are your thoughts on economic growth going forward because we're all wondering is this the end of the bull run this week marks the ten-year anniversary? >> well,as he said in the interview, growth is the size of the labor growth plus activity labor force is growing half to up to 1%, twlast the 2, 2.5% gdp growth rate comes into but also we have to see the fed hasobviously raised rates. there's also a l

u.s. economy, or one of the reasons the u.s. omy is outperforming at the moment, is because we had government spending that has helped out in the form of tax cuts and other things? the real gap between u.s. and andeuropean economy right the european economy right now, one of them is that the donald trump tax cuts may have driven government debt through the roof, but at least delivered a short-term sugar kick. jason: i think that is absolutely right. donald trump is the disruptor on the new normal. i think that is because you had tax cuts and regulatory reform, which i think is very positive, and trade, which thus far has been a little bit of a headwind. yellen know if chairman or bernanke would admit this, but donald trump is the best thing to happen to the federal reserve and the last 10 years because it has allowed them to back themselves out of this corner that the ecb finds itself in now and japan has found itself in for about 30 years. again, monetary policy is an extremely blunt instrument. it is not there to effect economi

u.s. economy and why the u.s. continues to be the world's destination for foreign direct investment with 33.7 trillion having been invested in the u.s., more than any nation in the world and today, want to talk about the functionality for how we can do that at a granular level at the state and local municipalities. today is different in programming and we will talk about the environment. not just nuts and bolts, but the environment and the economic environment where we talk about what the environment is from a workforce standpoint and then we talk about trade and how trade is the incentive for foreign investors in the u.s. and we have a great crowd gathered to date in order to do this with a substantive discussion and we enable future dealmaking. if there is one deal that comes out of this today, we've been hugely successful and i encourage that through the networking. we are excited to hear from multiple governors, representatives from congress and our first guest, the chairman of the white house council of econo

u.s. economy growing at 3.2% this year and 2.8% in a decade from now. the report also warns against so-called progressive policies like a well tacked and medicare for all. the trump administration says those policies would hurt the u.s. economy we'll have more on this coming up live until a live report from washington later on in the show. >>> let's get a check on the morning's other big headlines. frank holland joins us with those. good morning zbloosh. >> here's what's leading cnbc.com boeing doing some damage control following its second fatal crash in less than five months the company's ceo says boeing is "relentless when it comes to safety." he also addressed the investigation into the ethiopian airlines crash last week that killed 157 people. >> the investigation is moving forward with work underway to understand the information from the airplane's cockpit voice and flight data recorders. our team is on site with investigators to share technical expertise. soon we'll release a software update for the 737 max that will address concerns discovered i

u.s. economy has made a comeback. he says the u.s.llar is too strong and criticized jerome powell "likes raising interest rates." how likely is the president to get his wish for a weaker dollar? >> not likely. the data is stronger here than globally. it should speak towards a stronger dollar. the thing that could weaken the dollar would make president trump and jay powell happy because that would be a stronger performance in places abroad that are impairing the global economic outlook. if you see the slow down take hold in germany and china turnaround, you could see a weaker dollar and everyone would be happy about that. >> president trump is trying to counter what he believes are unfair trade practices. yesterday, the u.s. president notified congress he intends to terminate key trade preferences for india and turkey. what does it mean for india and turkey? >> it is a surprise, because the various protagonists in this debate have been talking for some time. i think the talks with india go back to april last year. what appears to have

u.s. economy is in a good place.e will continue to use our monetary policy tools to help keep it there. the jobs market is strong, showing healthier wage gains and prompting many to join or remain in the workforce froms the unemployment rate is near historic lows and inflation remains near the 2% goal we don't expect that the american economy will grow at a solid pace in 2019 although likely slower than the strong pace of 2018. we believe that our you aren't policy stance is appropriate since last year, however, we have noted some developments at home and around the world that bear close attention given the favorable conditions in the economy, my colleagues and i will be patient in assessing what if any stances in the change of policy will be needed let me explain how incoming data warrant our current stance and a wait and see approach the changes. with the benefit of fiscal stimulus and other tail winds, growth in 2018 was strong. in fact at 3.1%, the strongest year in more than a decade for some time, forecasts hav

u.s. economy? >> generally speaking, the u.s. economy is coming off a very strong year.seven million americans have fallen behind on their car payments. never happened before. what do you make of that? >> car sales have been quite high for a number of years. >> retail sales declined in december, the fastest pace since 2009. are these things taken together suggesting that the system is blinking red? >> there is also evidence, by the way, that spending has popped back up in january. >> but the overarching question is are we headed to a recession. >> this year, i expect that growth will continue to be positive, continue to be at a healthy rate. >> so 4% is something we shouldn't expect in the future? >> there will be years of 4% growth. >> a collapse of the financial system like we saw in 2008 cannot happen again? >> our system is vastly more resilient. >> how long can it last? >> i would say there's no reason why this economy cannot continue to expand. david: is the mainstream media rooting for recession just to get trump out? what do you think? >> of course they are. in f

u.s. economy also follows. and none of this period we've seen here fades away, economy is doing fine, the fed comes back into play later this year. that is what i think will happen here, charles. charles: really? >> yes. charles: danielle is shaking her head. before we get back to danielle, we get back to jonas. you seemed sanguine or blase. the dow on the cusp of going positive. we spiked into the close of 25,901 on the dow. where do you see, why is this not a sort of goldilocks scenario for stock market investors? >> look, it is a boost because interest rates are a lot lower than they were a few months ago. that makes stocks more valuable but no goldilocks. i'm not one of these fed kooks who doesn't believe in bold but they literally can't take interest payments coming in from the $4 trillion they created from the crisis and destroy the money. they have to recycle that back -- one step of way monetizing the debts and a few steps away from mmt and a little disturbing in supposedly strong economy they can't do t

u.s. economy has suffered from slower growth.el with the after-effects of the financial crisis, and i think that was always going to mean that the prevailing economic system took a hit in terms of public popularity. my generation are also of an age where we don't really remember any of the major economies being to overtly socialist in the traditional way that we've already discussed on the show. of so i think we're seeing an evolution off users -- of users partly because of a timeline effect and the economic conditions we felt. gerry: you've got a lot of subscribers, a lot of readers who read your work, a lot of interest in socialism. why, in your view, has this become in the last few years such an attractive ideology, especially with so many young people? >> well, capitalism isn't working for many people in the united states today. and they're living in precarety, they're not sure about their jobs, they're seeing stagnated wages, they live just one happenstance away from medical debt. they are accumulating, especially young peop

u.s. and global economy? thank you. chairman powell: the global economy was a tailwind for the u.s. in 2019. that was the year of synchronized global growth. we began 2018 expecting more of the same. what happened instead, global economies started to gradually slow and now we see a situation where the european economy has slowed substantially, and so has the chinese economy, although the european economy more. just as strong global growth was a tailwind, a weaker global a headland to our economy. how big is that a fact? it's hard to be precise. clearly, we will feel that. it is an integrated global economy, and global financial markets are integrated. in terms of what is causing it, it seems to be a range of different things. in china, you have factors that are very specific to china. the main point, though, i would say the outlook, let's look at the outlook. chinese authorities have taken the middle ofce last year to support economic activity. i think the best case is that ultimately chinese activity will stabilize at an attractive level. in europe, we see some weakening. but again,