u.s. economy healthy. the fed wasn't seeking to be aggressive actually because in their estimation of the economy growth is going to settle at about 2 percent annual real g.d.p. growth and inflation is going to sustainably converge to target over the next 2 years and at the moment looking at us data the labor markets for strong inflation really not far from target it's difficult to avoid that conclusion that the u.s. economy doesn't need aggressive interest rate cuts i'm despite what president trump is arguing quite aggressively i what about those concerns that exist about you as a quiddity which forced the fed to increase the amount of short term funding available for the very 1st time since the financial crisis in 2008 that sounds worrying. yeah it does certainly look very worrying on the surface the fed's approach to the shortage in overnight liquidity at the moment is to view it as a technical issue and as a technical solution in the fed's perspective it was true true transitory factors named. we corpor

u.s. economy has continued to perform well. we are into the 11th year of the economic expansion, and the baseline outlook remains favorable. the economy grew at a 2.5% pace in the first half of the year. household spending supported by a strong job market, rising incomes and solid consumer confidence has been the key driver of growth. in contrast, business investment and exports have weakened amid falling manufacturing output. the main reasons appear to be slower growth abroad and trade policy developments. two sources of uncertainty we have been monitoring all year. since the middle of last year, global growth outlook has weakened. notably in europe and china. additionally a number of geopolitical risks including brexit remain unresolved. trade policy tensions have waxed and waned and elevated uncertainty is weighing on u.s. investment and exports. our business contacts around the country have been telling us that uncertainty about trade policy discouraged them from investing in their businesses. busine even so, with household

u.s. economy is a bit more closed, a bit more oriented to domestic demand. the key question for the u.s. hen does the u.s. say,mer really get, let's concerned enough or worried enough to change behavior? as long as u.s. consumption and retail sales continue to be relatively robust, i think the u.s. economy will enjoy some insulation from the rest of the world. if we have a big shock, an enormous thing happens, all bets are off, clearly. it was interesting to see that so far, it is interesting to see that so far, the oil shock has not really materialized. oil price shock, from the attacks on the saudi facilities. 10 or 20 years ago, that could have driven oil prices to double. it is just a different world in terms of vulnerabilities. paul: that oil question is an interesting one, isn't it, because iran cohead room -- have removed 40% of that lost from the weekend strike. somethingms, that is we have theorized about for a while, in terms of risk. and now it has happened. it seems safe to assume that is not the end of it, that will not be the last one we ever see. is not a risk that you are

u.s. economy because of all that. the job monetary policy is to adjust to ensure against the scroun side risks and support the economy in light of the existing weakness that we do see. we are not -- we don't see a recession or forecasting a recession but adjusting monetary policy to support what is the favorable outlook. >> just to talk about the current situation. you saw a long-term rate move down a whole lot and retraced two-thirds of that move in the space of two days. when there are changes material changes that are sustained for a period of time. low? are long-term rates there can be a signal about expectations about growth but there can be long-term premiums. it can be just that there is a large quapt of negative yielding and very low yielding debt around the yield and that is exerting pressure without having an independent signal. that is a signal of weak global growth and that would affect us. global capital markets are quite integrated. we aren't going to be dismissive about the yield curve. on the committee

u.s. economy, the u.s. economy has generally >> you talked about it growing and maybe you have rupping your balance sheet too small to the fact the revs are too small to get through the organic period. are they enough in the balance sheets to get to ample reserves to get us through the tough times or do you need to see more above that and is that a possibility the committee would consider? >> the question will be as we learn more, how much of this really has to do with the level of reserves. and i think we'll learn quite a lot in the next six weeks. >> they're pointing to liquidity rules and what we've seen in capital rules as well. are we all looking at whether some tweaks in the liquidity coverage ratio might help and also, what is the status of the net stable funding ratio rule? are you still planning on putting it out soon? jerome: i think we concluded that we needed to raise the level of requires reserves for banks to meet the l.c.r., we'd probably raise the level of reserves rather than lower the l.c.r

u.s. economy and is this coupled with the recent talk of looming recession more bad news for donald trump heading into the 2020 alexion let's talk about this with chris lew the former deputy secretary of labor during the obama administration he also served as the former white house cabinet secretary for president obama he is in washington d.c. chris welcome to the program matthew always a pleasure so let's jump right in is the u.s. manufacturing sector. for the 1st time in 3 years since in august so is this a cause for concern it absolutely is a cause and it needs to be looked at in the context of other economic data that has come out last week we saw that consumer confidence fell by the largest amount since december of 2012 and so when you have an economy where manufacturers are trying to deal with uncertainty from the trade war and perhaps aren't producing as many goods or not hiring as many people you have consumers that are possibly pulling back on their spending that's not a good recipe for economic success going down the road so is this are these new numbers a direct result of the u

u.s. economy and the trade war. that is having an effect to the economy.t is not killing it or throwing it into recession. on the other hand, it is more likely the economy will need support. i think the trade war will be protrack tiff. you look at the democratic debate nobody was really coming out against tariffs, which i thought was extraordinary. most of the u.s. population is protrade elizabeth warren was starting to sound a bit like president trump in terms of protectionism. this could go on for a long time and it suggests the u.s. economy will need support. >> if that is true, is the united states market something you think is still a good investment place for investors around the world or here in the united states to be putting their money if we don't know what is going to happen with the trade war and is so much uncertainty for corporate planning >> we have been writing about this idea about fortress america. even though the united states political system is creating this trade conflict around the world. the pressure of the u.s. economy lends itself

u.s. economy because of all that. but nonetheless, so the job of monetary policy is to adjust both to ensure against those downside risks but also to support the economy in light of the existing weakness that we do see. so as i mentioned, we're not -- we don't see a recession, we're not forecasting a recession, but we are adjusting monetary policy in a more accommodative direction to try to support what is, in fact, a favorable outlook. reporter: and the inverted yield curve that we hear is the bond market signaling recession, is that -- so that signal is not pertinent to you? >> we do, we monitor the yield curve carefully along with a large, wide range of financial conditions. we don't -- so it's not -- there's no one thing that is dispositive among all considerations. the yield curve is something that we follow carefully. and again, based on our assessment of all the data we still think it's a positive outlook. the thing -- so just to talk about the current situation, you saw the long-term rates move down a whole lot

u.s. economy.rd goodstein is an attorney, a former advisor to bill and hillary clinton and as of this morning a democrat. will he remain in the party after hearing this? let's ask him. so 80% of the entire u.s. economy will go to fighting climate change? 80%. meanwhile bernie sanders will continue to fly private. does that make sense to you? >> i think if the democrats nominate bernie sanders than they deserve the fate they are about to get. the fact of the matter is, actually cite a republican, dick cheney, who had the 1% doctrine which was there was a 1% chance that a threat is going to effectuate and we treated as a certainty. >> tucker: out of that work out? >> you can laugh but politically i would say that -- i hope you keep laughing all the way to election day, with every millennial things what you're laughing at is in fact serious. >> tucker: i don't care if everybody on the planet has been brainwashed, i still understand science. he takes through a soldier looked on like it always has chang

u.s. economy against a global slowdown which has been made worse by that u.s. china trade war the move could help strengthen business investments in exports which the fed says have weakened the u.s. central bank has faced intense pressure from president don't want trump to cut rates it's. more of this now we want to go to jose he was standing by for us on wall street good afternoon to you i was amy what does this move tell us about the state of the u.s. economy if we need a 2nd rate cut this year. so. for now it seems that the economy the u.s. economy is still pretty resilient if we take a look to the new projections from the federal reserve actually day upgraded g.d.p. numbers have for d.c. year the u.s. economy is going to grow around 2.2 percent unemployment rate it's going to still around 3.7 percent and it seems that that there are not pretty be inflationary pressures since core inflation core p.c. inflation it's going to be around 1.8 percent so it seems said that the defendant is still doing some kind of psycho are just minutes and they are not looking f

u.s. economy and labor market has been important for that. >> so one thing is clear that the u.s. enefitting from its bigger exposure to the service sector compared to countries like germany and other big countries in europe because here manufacturing is so much bigger chunk of the economy than in the u.s. and the weakness, the trade war and reduced weakness clearly have started with the industrial space. but the big question also for the u.s. is whether this will -- the weakness in industrial space will eventually trickle over to also the service sector and consumer sentiment and the labor market it seems to be this has happened quicker in europe and also warrants more positive response from the ecb, but still also the u.s. doesn't seem to be safeguarded from that potential risk he was also referring to that he sees a lot more fragility in the u.s. economy than before so we're headed towards interesting times to say the least when it comes to the economic outlook uncertainty seems to be everywhere with that, back to you. >> absolutely. you know very well as well aneta speaking fro

u.s. economy the way it has caught up to the german economy and others? because the u.s. economy is not as open, not as concentrated in manufacturing. is at thee u.s. center of the uncertainty, the economic impacts china china and u.s. are bigger in the eurozone. u.s. is at the center of the dispute. matt: what do you think about the possibility the tail wags the dog? a lot of people would say the fed was pushed to a rate cut by the market because you are in a situation where 2% growth, 2% inflation, 3.7% unemployment. the president may have pushed them there as well. i want you to listen to this where a journalist asked the governor about trump's attacks. >> mr. trump has been a vocal critic of you, and your colleagues: you boneheads and a terrible communicator to read how do you respond to these criticisms? >> i do not. i am not going to change my practice here of not responding to comments or adjusting comments by elected officials. i will just say i continue to believe in the independence of the federal reserve from direct political control has served the public well o

u.s. economy and in certain parts of this country in particular in the midwest and the south manufacturing has placed an outsized role so again it's true measure it's true symbolic importance of the u.s. economy is much bigger than the actual amount of dollars that are involved so in manufacturing is focused you say in the south so these are primarily in the midwest so is it the is it primarily red states or or traditionally red leaning states that have the most manufacturing jobs well it no it is it's a lot of rural jobs we should say that and it's also frankly a lot of jobs in the traditional midwest but we also need to understand manufacturing. looks a lot different than it used to be when i was the deputy secretary of labor i used to visit all kinds of factories i would visit auto plants as well the u.s. manufacturing on balance is producing far more goods than it did let's say 10 or 20 years ago but it's also doing with doing all of that with far fewer people and in part that's because of automation and so manufacturing as a portion of the u.s. economy has steadily shrunk but obviousl

u.s. also fell to their lowest level since april amid the trade war between the world's top 2 economies but analysts expect the u.s. is trade gap to widen again in the coming months amid weaker demand for american manufacturing exports. joins us now from new york the trade deficit has been a sore point for the white house is the fact that it has now shrunk in donald trump's policies have worked at least for a little while not really even if the trade deficit at least with china decreased a bit for the month off july both exports and imports to and from china drop but exports dropped a bit more than imports but overall if you look at the deficit between the 2 biggest economies on the world if you compare it to when u.s. president on a drum took office so this deficit is still about $10000000000.00 higher on a monthly basis so that is still an increase of about 20 percent and then also if you look at the deficit to other nations that actually increased the deficit with countries like germany mexico or south korea no so overall the trade deficit in the united states states is still sky high so

u.s. economy, they harm u.s. consumers, they harm u.s. ers, manufacturers, and this is not the right way forward. and protectionist policies have never benefited the united states or any economy in the world in the past. the united states is an economy based upon success of free markets, free trade, economic freedom. that's the best approach here, and we do need to hit the chinese hard in specific areas where they're harming u.s. interests, but a blanket tariff approach, i think, is counterproductive, and i think it does undermine, i think, the overall success of the u.s. economy. laura: and, nile, looking forward many economists say american shoppers have been a key component for the economy these day, right? people feeling good, spending their money. not only do we have what happened with this weekend with the tariffs, but the trump administration is also planning for a second round of 15% tariffs in december. so is this more that could or should be done when it comes to the economy with china, like what else could be done? >> yeah. i th

u.s. economy.in is an attorney, former advisor to bill and hillary clinton and as of this morning, a democrat. will he remain in the party after hearing this? let's ask them wait to see you tonight. so 80% of the entire u.s. economy will go to fighting climate change. 80%. meanwhile, bernie sanders will continue to fly private. does that make sense to you? >> you know, i think if the nominate bernie sanders, they deserve the fate they are likely to get. bernie sanders is an about socialist. the fact of the matter is i actually cite a republican, dick cheney, who had the 1% doctrine, which is if there was 1% chance that a threat is going to effectuate, we have to treat it as a certainty. >> tucker: how to that work out -- part of that work out out of that workout -- >> you can laugh -- >> tucker: is that really your standard? >> politically i hope you keep laughing all the way to election day because every millennial things what you're laughing at is in fact serious. >> tucker: i don't care if every

u.s. remains a still attractive market. we are one of the few economiesthe world having decent growth. we are still looking at gdp numbers probably solidly in the 2's at present. the interest-rate differential, u.s. debt versus the rest of the world, is still strong. the rest of the world is negative. u.s. assets are attractive, the dollar is strong. we are definitely there. as always, we are always looking for opportunities globally. a lot of times, we will play those through u.s. companies because that takes the currency issue off the table. don't see that condition changing anytime soon in a material way. so the u.s. still remains a decent place to invest right now. shery: despite the strong dollar, we see an interest in gold, given the low-interest rate environment. is that something you are looking at, too? a base: whether you have case for a growth period, or a recessionary pull back the reins kind of thing, gold is attractive on valuation. the run recently, is less attractive. of the value of an ounce gold versus a share of the s&p 500 is probably

u.s. economy.ubstantial reason why the united states will continue to fight the straightforward china for a long time. >> china has announced it's going to make some exceptions to the tariffs that it imposes on u.s. goods. should we see that as a concession from the chinese side ahead of those talks in october? let's not think of it as a concession, is a goodwill gesture. in my opinion, goodwill shows psychological strength and self-confidence. it's different from a concession. fors there an argument debate going on within the government about trying to wait out president trump beyond 2020? is that part of the discussion? >> someone may say this on a certain occasion, but this is not a serious strategy. china has always hoped to make an agreement sooner, which would be best. if united states continues to apply maximum pressure, with a bullying attitude trying to force china to accept conditions and cannot accept, then whoever will be elected the next verydent is not a important factor in china will

u.s. economy. where i disagree, if the economy is strong right now, is it because of residual momentum from the fiscal stimulus? the fact that global growth lowereds to fall, oecd their growth forecast for next year. at some point, the business sector that is already cutting, do they start expecting higher? if growth does not moderate, 10's can go up -- up to 2%. jonathan: everyone around the table is sticking with me. u.s. junk bonds heading for a fifth straight weekly gain. that conversation is coming up next. ."is is bloomberg "real yield ♪ i'm jonathan ferro this is bloomberg "real yield." we want to go to the auction block in europe where weekly sales are breaking 50 billion euros for only the fourth time in 2019. here in the u.s., the high-grade corporate market posting $20 billion in sales. that slowedjunk after the busiest week in more than two years. elsewhere, the majority of loans being probably well-received. sticking with a high-yield credit market, some strong words, seeing many signs

u.s. economy gets to where the european economy is now $92.00 growth well below instead of growth close to trend it's up to trump and his trade policies in the end meeting that chief economist at ben ben frank thank you so much you're welcome. try not to cringe the humble maggot could revolutionize the way we feed the world to using insects for animal food ingredients is a sustainable option for the future they grow quickly breed well and can live off food waste the dutch company pro takes is helping to grow this market. these maggots are 20 days old and they're showing a lot of promise and as you said these one the particularly good today yesterday was it a good harvest it's a really good harvest because that that made it big and is still alive. they can beat it so they. did give them lots of protein. maggots are cheap to feed and live off waste like finally ground potato peels from a french fries factory. the company lets the spillman some of the crates but not in the big breeding plants next door. it contains a strict trade secret pro takes has been working on for 10 years. technology t

u.s. economy is better able to withstand the conflict with the chinese. in terms of protecting its economy from the trade war -- yes, we have had small stimulus measures but no broad sweeping measures yet. .nd then the yuan side it has been allowed to weaken so far. don't you think they have more tools such as rate cuts? fairness, the inventory is wide and they have not pulled out all of the stops in terms of allowing their currency to appreciate. they have another avenue. economy, beinghe so heavily dependent on trade and manufacturing relative to the stimulus. they were trying to cut down on the excessive use of credit. they are inviting the continuity. the further weakening of their currency could mean bad news for the chinese as well, right? it could lead to flight which is the risk they would like to avoid. if you look at the u.s., we have had problems there as well. the fed starts to or finishes its balance sheet expansion which starts to be reduced. repo nightmare we had last week. i wonder if you think that poses a serious threat to the u.s. econom

u.s. economy because the oil price go to the roof. ough here there is a barrier which is due launch a full war economic it is only diplomacy that should be reassuring for the global economy. >> how should investors get oil exposure or not in a port folio? >> at this stage we know the oil discretion is between the two protagonists as the french president was talking, of the imaginations -- the machinations. on the tendency if we avoid war, for with military action, that remains to be, you can switch into it. but i would go away but the one thing we like is the equity oil sector because you have a 5% dividend yield and the global oil sector is particularly attractive. its value. you have marcy sure dividends if the oil prices would get higher than we thought before. so the dividend streams are good . some buyback preview have a few oil linked commodities like the russian global which can be extremely attractive with real yields on bonds in russia which are very attractive. submenusare subways, of oil, not necessarily directly onto the oi

u.s. economy? jose: for now, it seems that the u.s. economy is still pretty resilient.if we take a look at projections from the federal reserve, gdp numbers for this year say the economy will grow 2.2%. the unemployment rate will be around 3.7% and it seems that there are not big inflationary pressures, as core inflation is going to be around 1.8%. it seems that the fed is still doing some kind of midcycle adjustments. they are not looking forward for a decision or a big slowdown in the near future. chairman jerome powell said it is ready to be aggressive if necessary, but it seems that right now, there is no fear of a slowdown anytime soon. brent: when you compare and contrast that to the european central bank, the u.s. fed is not doing a lot. we know that president trump is not happy with that policy. jose: absolutely not. he already tweeted about this decision, but we have to have in mind that the fed is independent and monetary policy decisions are not made by one person. there is a total of 17 members that participate in that meeting and from those members, 10 have

u.s. economy.ra: on your call for the number of fed rate cuts, jeremy they wait for consumer spending to weaken, it might be too late. chris: i think both and -- and like john: i think both investment -- john: i think both investment and consumption are starting to so signs of stress. growth, wethe weak see the unemployment rate rising 4.3% over the course of next year. that is one of the reasons we think the fed will have to inject more accommodative monetary policies into the situation. nejra: john, talking about the u.s., the question of the day is, what payrolls number is going to sustain the risk rally? tell us what you're are looking for on the job front in the u.s. and how that will play around -- into risk assets. john: for now, we are looking for signs that the labor market will remain robust. if this fresh easing of some of the trade tensions or fresh optimism that at least they may be talking again face-to-face in a not too, that creates something of a tailwind for risk assets. if you ar

u.s. economy, steve blitz, chief u.s.mist joins us around the desk thank you very much for being with us this morning let's kick off with that nonpharm payrolls report at a headline the number was below what wall street was looking for but importantly we saw that wage growth remains solid, average hourly earnings increased by more than what the market had been expecting. putting it all together, what does this mean for you >> it's a weak report. let's go to the wages first because, you know, that popped up it will pop up for a given month. most of that increase was in mining and in information sectors. and also what we saw was a mix shift where the lower paying jobs growth was much slower than the higher paying jobs groult and that will do it. lastly most important is that wages are really a lagging indicator. people get paid this year on how their firm did next year and the expectation how the firm will do in the coming year what you're seeing in wage growth this year is the echo in the strength of the u.s. economy in 20

u.s. economy, the u.s. economy is generally performed roughly as expected roughly. the consumer is spending at a healthy clip i would say business fixed investment and exports have weakened further and manufacturing pmi suggests more weakness ahead the labor market is still strong generally that's the same. if you look at global economy, i eu in china and i think her in trade policy developments have been a big mover of markets and of sentiment during that intervening period i think that's what's happened over the intervening period and different people around the table have different perspectives as you obviously kno know. >> i'm just curious on your balance sheet point, you talk about the committee, thinking about resuming organic growth over time. i guess the question is, if you have shrunk your balance sheet a little bit too small to the point that reserves are too scarce to get through these unusual periods, is organic growth in the balance sheet enough to get back to the point of ample reserves that can get us through those tough times or would you need to see

u.s. economy any time soon. business report,se modi, new york. >>> and here is another look at the day'sum finalrs from wall street. the dow rose 36 pinpoints to 27147. the nasdaq lost 8 a the s&p 500 was up just 1. and that's "nightly business report" fori' tonight. sue herera thanks for joining us. >> i'm bill griffeth. have a great evening. we will see you tomorrow. ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ woman: this is "bbc worldews america." is made possible by... the freeman foundation; by judy and ter blum-kovler foundation, pursuing solutio america's neglected needs; and by contributions to this pbs station from viewers like you. k you. lauis is "bbc world news america." reporting from washington, i am

u.s. economy. where i disagree, if the economy is strong right now, is it because of residual momentum from the fiscal stimulus? the fact that global growth continues to fall. ecb just lowered their growth forecast for next year. i am thinking how long can the usb this island of prosperity? at some point, the business sector, that is already cutting business investment do they , start expecting higher? if growth does not moderate, 10's can go up to 2%. i am concerned hiring slows down, consumer spending goes down. jonathan: we will continue this conversation. everyone around the table is sticking with me. coming up on the program, the auction block. u.s. junk bonds heading for a fifth straight weekly gain as yields fall to fresh 20 month lows. that conversation is coming up next. this is "bloomberg real yield." ♪ i'm jonathan ferro. this is "bloomberg real yield." we want to go to the auction block in europe where weekly sales are breaking 50 billion euros for only the fourth time in 2019. here in t

u.s. the offer was made last month. there has been no public response from the white house. the economy in china slowing down again, putting pressure on authorities to support growth. last month, industrial output rising at the slowest pace since 2002. citigroup lowering its growth outlook for china. a u.s. investigation into rigging the precious metals market. bloomberg has more on the government looking to charge people higher up the chain. global news 24 hours a day, on air and @tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. guy: let's take a quick look at luxembourg. slightly bizarre situation. ministerhe prime speaking at a podium that has been set up, one for him and one for boris johnson. boris johnson has skipped this press conference and left a meeting with him. comments coming through. the pound is trading at session was as we speak. -- those as we speak. he is saying the british have offered no concrete proposals. he has advised the british to use the time wisely that is left. boris johnson has told him the

u.s. economy. we will

u.s. economy is losing momentum. we have moved from a point where we're thinking about what will the fed do based on inflation or worrying or watching for wages rising we're actually becoming more concerned that maybe the employment growth is slowing and that might be a sign that the u.s. economy is on a slow down and ultimately headed to recession. >> we had a few significant ones come out in a year or so between manufacturing and services with the manufacturing ism coming down below that 50 mark but the non-manufacturing ism is actually improving so in pretty healthy territory so putting it all together, what's your thoughts about the health of the economy. >> i think overall we're seeing an economy that is cooling and i'm encouraged by, as you said, that non-manufacturing number bouncing although another survey, the markets services index actually weakened up so we're getting mixed news taking the kind of overall view, there's no question that the economy has cooled it's the difference between the consumer side an

u.s. economy is doing well.rowing much faster than the rest was world, the rest was world is very close to a recession, the rest of the world is pulling us down but not enough to cause us to any into recession at all, there is nothing but good signs that i can see going forward, imvery optimistic about the economy over next 6 months to a year. gregg: art laffer thank you. >> thank you. gregg: climate protestors trying to shut down dc today, stephanie hamill talked with some of them. finding some hypocrisy in the crowd. >> is this plastic? >> wir we're at a climate marchd you are wearing plastic or something made from fossil fuel? gregg: staff -- coming up stephanie hamill with more. but first, uk and france blaming iran for oil attacks. retired lieutenant colo colonel robert maginnes will join us next, don't go away. children: traffic jam! announcer: and the world's first never bump bumper cars. children: never bump! announcer: it's a real savings hootenanny with options that fit your budget. that's fun for the

u.s. economy is slowing.rate index, a monthly index of real and trucking, fell 3% from a year earlier. that is the ninth circuit of month of declines. they blame tariffs and the trade war which hundred and president trump's claim he is presiding over the greatest economy in u.s. history. global news 24 hours a day, on air and @tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am su keenan, this is bloomberg. ♪ shery: a 15th consecutive weekend of protests in hong kong has seen teargas and water cannons used to disperse crowds of demonstrators. tens of thousands defied the ban on a mass rally through the business district and gathering of the british consulate. sophie kamaruddin is in one district in hong kong. how aggressive river clashes quote -- were the clashes? 14 weekend,he last anyone paying attention would have noticed the violent activities took place earlier in the day before sundown. a small group of protesters used petrol, bombs and a water cannon w

u.s. economy's main driver consumer spending despite headlines i go back and forth calling for progress has become ever more clear now that the trend is towards escalation not to deescalation in addition. increased duties on american exports china has now lodged an official complaint against the us at the w t o saying that the latest actions by elated at the consensus reached by leaders in osaka this lawsuit is now the 3rd that beijing has brought to challenge the. the us says that they are penalizing china for theft of intellectual property that is not covered by the rules although many trade experts say that any tariff above the allowed maximum must be justified at the w t o under the washington now has 60 days to try to settle this dispute then china could ask the to rule a process that would take several years this move however is largely symbolic as trying to pull the u.s. out of the w t o so there is no way to actually force the us to do anything even if china wins this case but this lawsuit was primarily intended to send a message rather than to force an outcome it is that china valu

u.s. economy.his is mysterious and as i said unfathomable. >> the status quo with china hammers the u.s. economy this is a president who stood up to china. he ran out and he said we are not going to be taken advantage of the. we are going to let countries take advantage of our workers of our manufacturing base and he has done so with strength boldness and with resolve. lou: why can't we use those words with members of the senate and the house with strength and resolve. are you kidding? those words are relevant to most of the members of the house and the senate. >> we have have resolved many when you look at joe biden joe biden says china is not a competitor. china would love joe biden because then they can take advantage of america. lou: by the way most of the republican establishment candidates the rhinos as you well know are like puppies rolling over for their kibble. ron others one other thing i want to conclude with very quickly. a recent poll from harris again the harvard cat harris poll for t

u.s. economy. report is signaling weakness, that, too, could show through in the payroll tally tomorrow. those are key things to get you ready for tomorrow. maybe again bullish surprise for bonds, but maybe for equities, not so much. paul: thanks very much for that. joining us for a preview of the job report and the general outlook, we have the steeple nicolaus-- stifel chief economist. there is a case to be made for a reasonably strong jobs report as kathleen outlined, but with some caveats. what are you expecting? >> i think we will see a relatively modest headline number. excluding census workers, we are looking for around 130,000. there has been a tremendous amount of volatility in payrolls as of late. we saw a disappointing number in may, outright strength in june, and july pretty much split the difference, but we are expecting the downward trend to become more evidence in the latest nonfarm payroll reports tomorrow. this will be in our opinion another likely feather in the cap of those more d

u.s. economy -- see for the u.s. economy? bruce: the consumer has everything going for it in terms of what they are spending. in that regard, the economy is doing better. we've got full unemployment, -- we've got full employment, rising wages, so i suspect consumer spending will remain strong the remainder of this year and carry forward well into 2020. guy: how on earth in that environment is the market pricing as many rate hikes as it is right now? you just give me a list that tells me the u.s. economy is in great shape. there's one bit missing, and that is the manufacturing sector , but nevertheless, we have 25 baked in next week. that?o we get beyond is the market getting too far ahead of itself when it comes to the fed? i don't think it is getting that far ahead of itself, although i will say this. the fed has sent strong signals they are going to raise -- they are going to lower the fed funds level 25 basis points next week. i think the fact that the stock market is close to making new highs and we've got a labor departme