growth forecast for this year the clock is ticking and it's just a matter of days now before the u.s. start slapping tariffs on european steel and alan minium imports that's unless an agreement can be found before friday under mounting pressure the e.u. met with u.s. delegates for talks on the sidelines of the o.e.c.d. summits in paris the u.s. commerce secretary however said he saw no need for haste. can be negotiations with or without terms police news there are plenty of terms of the police and who knows and so it's not that you can't talk to us because the terms. e.u. trade commissioner cecilia mounts trim rejected that approach she's warned retaliate three measures including a trade war would be on the cards if negotiations fail our future course of action will depend on the nature and the severity of measures imposed on our exports by the united states and the injury it does to our industry and that could mean tariffs on many u.s. products including cranberries peanut butter orange juice motorcycles and whiskey. nice to see they've got the shopping lists ready let's go of the conrad b

the clock is ticking it's just a matter of days now before the u.s. start slapping tariffs on european steel and aluminum imports. that's unless an agreement can be found before friday. with pressure mounting e.u. and u.s. delegates met for talks on the sidelines of the o.e.c.d. summit in paris. e.u. trade commissioner o.c.d. amount stroom said retaliatory measures including a trade war would be on the cards if negotiations fail. our future course of action will depend on the nature and the severity of measures imposed on our exports by the united states and the injury it does to our industry. and that could mean tariffs on many u.s. products including cranberries peanut butter orange juice motorcycles and whiskey. all right for the latest from that summit in paris let's cross over to our correspondent there lisa louise good to have you with us lisa so high level talks are going on there on the sidelines of the o.e.c.d. meeting how are those talks coming along have you heard anything yet well monica we hearing very little of the content of these talks we kn

unfortunately if you have a discussion about tariffs the u.s. starts with steel products like that and then it begins to trun the wheels and tariffs discussed about the e.u. to put on american products and the u.s. is going to do the same so we don't know yaps where we will end up if tariffs go up from one to another week by bashing each other between us and the you solve in the end this can harm every kind of traits and also mechanical engineering as everybody else so we are very much in favor to stop all this by getting into serious talks about getting rid of all tariffs and this is only technique technically possible to do it in a free trade agreement ok thank you very much for your input tito board there and optimists and a backer of free trade thank you very much for being on the. the european commission has a veiled an increased e.u. draft budget for twenty twenty one to twenty seven of close to one point three trillion euros getting countries to agree on contributing more won't be easy it includes huge spending hikes for defense and security twe

it is just a matter of days now before the u.s. startslapping traffic -- tariffs on european steel and aluminum imports. that is, unless an agreement can be found before friday. with pressure mounting, eu and u.s. delegates met for talks on the sidelines of the oecd summit in paris. the eu trade commissioner said retaliatory measures including a trade or would be on the cards if negotiations fail. >> our future course of action will depend on the nature and the severity of measures imposed on our exports. and the injury it does to our industry. reporter: and that cocould mean tariffs on many u.s. products, including cranberries, peanut butter, orange juice, motorcycles, and whiskey. helena: in a dw exclusive, our correspondent in paris caught up with germany's economy minister at the conference. she asked him how i failure in eu, u.s. talks on trump's tariffs could hurt the german and u.s. economies. >> first of all, we should not speculate. second, the european and the germanan economy are very robus. so i do not believe in immediate aff

the clock is ticking it's just a matter of days now before the u.s. start slapping tariffs on european steel and aluminum imports. that's unless an agreement can be found before friday. with pressure mounting e.u. and u.s. delegates met for talks on the sidelines of the o.e.c.d. summit in paris. e.u. trade commissioner celia amounts stroom said retaliatory measures including a trade war would be on the cards if negotiations fail. our future course of action will depend on the nature and the severity of measures imposed on our exports by the united states and the injury it does to our industry. and that could mean tariffs on many u.s. products including cranberries peanut butter orange juice motorcycles and whiskey. all right a lot to talk about there in paris and what are the markets making of it cannot business our man of the front with stock exchange to do investors and traders actually have time to watch what's going on in paris right now. so you can be sure that they are watching and they're all keen to know what the outcome of those talks might be of c

u.s. started the no instance in september two thousand and sixteen and out at that time looked at the killing of tens of syrian army soldiers and also led to the. control over it three strategic areas at the time we. got today and there was a sort of. america's ambassador to israel has come in for criticism after he was seen posing with a rather controversial gift david freeman was presented with a photograph of one of the most sacred places in jerusalem but the image had been altered to show the jewish third temple on the site where the islamic dome of the rock is currently situated the third temple is a biblical reference to a new place of worship to replace an ancient one which was destroyed u.s. embassy has asked for an apology saying that the envoy was unaware he was being given a doctored picture the region is still reeling from deadly protests against the relocation of the embassy to jerusalem here is our middle east correspondent paula slayer. photograph immediately sparked fierce criticism from the muslim world saberi cut who is the secretary general of the palestine liberation organ

u.s. started blasting china for its protectionist measures. thea came back and said, u.s.ctionist and particularly with the threatens $150 billion in tariffs. the u.s. envoy comes back and says, it is in the realm of "alice in wonderland," where black is white and white is black. we are having a lot of harsh words. the spokesman for the wto meeting said it was some of the harshest language he had seen. it was extraordinary in its intensity, he said. clearly, they are trading a lot of barbs over these proposed tariffs. this is after the talks last week, which were supposed to ratchet down trade tensions. collegial setdly, up for the next round of trade talks. jodi: wilbur ross, the commerce while theis saying, talks continue, and the good news there is high-level dialogue, things are going slowly and there is a lot to be done. it is unclear whether they will getver -- be able to anywhere in terms of talks before the u.s. would impose these sanctions -- tariffs. the u.s. has already gone ahead with steel and aluminum tariffs. the next round would be tariffs against chinese g

the u.s. start by trying to use the highest advantage but the handing that's them down. the north koreans response is to use their own advantage to speak they move the ball fast staying out of reach and shooting from outside the three point. five percent. then the american school their first points with death christie's cool head and hands and a bank shot from then baker. was packed head back in the game which has turned out to be more physical than they'd expected. thanks. north korea continue to dominate playing a pass and move style of basketball that leaves the americans flat footed and defending too deep to prevent a succession of three point shots thank. you with the hosts up the tempo they get their decision making and hence be too much for an aging team including an out of condition dense. thanks. at the end of the first period and with the americans trailing by ten points dennis bows out to enjoy watching the rest of the game with his friend kim jong un thank you. you this second quarter brings more of the same. the u.s. team does rally but fatigue starts to pla

the clock is ticking it's just a matter of days now before the u.s. start slapping tariffs on european steel and allen minium imports that's unless an agreement can be found before friday under mounting pressure the e.u. met with u.s. delegates for talks on the sidelines of the o.e.c.d. summit in paris the u.s. commerce secretary however said he saw no need for haste. can be negotiations with or without terms please good news there are plenty of terms. and police and who knows who it's not that you can't talk to as we go through the terms. e.u. trade commissioner cecilia mts trim rejected that approach she's warned retaliate three measures including a trade war would be on the cards if negotiations fail our future course of action will depend on the nature and the severity of measures imposed on our exports by the united states and the injury it does to our industry and that could mean tariffs on many u.s. products including cranberries peanut butter orange juice motorcycles and whiskey lisa lewis joins us from paris she's been following the talks mr mccoy

the clock is ticking it's just a matter of days now before the u.s. start slapping tariffs on european steel and aluminum imports. that's unless an agreement can be found before friday. with pressure mounting e.u. and u.s. delegates met for talks on the sidelines of the o.e.c.d. summit in paris. e.u. trade commissioner o.c.d. amount stroom said retaliatory measures including a trade war would be on the cards if negotiations fail. our future course of action will depend on the nature and the severity of measures imposed on our exports by the united states and the injury it does to our industry. and that could mean tariffs on many u.s. products including cranberries peanut butter orange juice motorcycles and whiskey. branded a d w exclusive our correspondent in paris lisa lewis caught up with germany's economy minister paid out my ear at the conference and she asked him our favor in a you u.s. talks on trump's tariffs could hurt the german and e.u. economies. first of all we should not speculate second. the european and the german economy are very robust so i

u.s.. transfer started, initiated in january, 2003 after the election. rumsfeld,by secretary as you recall the time frame after the highway 56 incident, secretary rumsfeld's desire to use all forces, u.s. military forces in the war on terrorism suggested to the koreans they change opcom move u.s. forces to so he could use u.s. forces in other areas outside korea. that started this long process of the transfer. rokas predicated on the government investing in military capabilities to provide rok military with independent war fighting abilities. frank mentioned the gaps on how the alliance was optimized. when you split the combined forces command, it will be like splitting siamese twins. it is so integrated, the interoperability between the forces is so great, you will have to split the baby. it has proven to be expensive for the rok government to develop counter fire capabilities, advanced precision weapons capabilities. there were 10 major areas that the rok government had to invest in while simultaneously contributing to the burden sharing of u.s. forces

u.s. has started an investigation into whether car and truck imports threaten national security. cording to a person familiar, investigations -- imported steel and aluminum. they set an additional tariff on vehicles up to 25% is under consideration. shares for major european carmakers are lower. deutsche bank has said it will cut jobs in it -- in its equity business by a quarter. 7000 as a partby of the new seals quest to cut costs -- the new ceos quest to cut costs. the announcement came ahead of deutsche bank's agm today. jumped.l it may not be up to service its debt after october 23 and less u.s. sanctions are lifted. that is the deadline washington has given companies. rose biggest aluminum producer outside of china said sections could -- said sanctions could profit -- u.k. businesses could be left up to 20 billion -- left up to 20 million pounds softer. could --ps the plan would not solve the irish border question. partnershipthe new believed to be back by theresa may would cause the maximum tests cost and maximum of 3.4 a maximumunds -- cost of 3.4 billion pounds. global new

we have been talking about trade, trade between europe and the u.s. startsthe u.s. -- it is the emerging markets that suffer as a result. a u.s. 10, 3.1 on year, the u.s. feels like a different place. the dollar was going up again. e.m. feels like it will be a tough place to operate. all the lines seem to be converging on making this trade tougher. youew: historically, when saw those moves, you said i don't want to be in e.m. when you look across the board, it is better than it was from a valuation point of view. you had the taper tantrum of 2013, the valuations were stretched. we won't say there aren't potential issues in argentina and turkey, there are issues taking place in those countries, but we are more constructive around e.m. despite the comments you made in the backdrop because e.m. growth is still doing well and we think investors are underinvested. you have seen big flows into e.m., we haven't seen those in three or four years. if anything, money has come out in aggregate. we aren't as concerned about e.m. it doesn't mean we are complacent in risk

u.s. is starting to come through. it could push into 2019. what happens beyond that with monetary policy tighter, you have a big? mark.on rates areinterest happening in the way it hasn't happened in several years. the federal reserve is projecting fed heights. what is the take from that? luke: i think markets are concerned about higher oil prices and the geopolitical place that we are. that could have significant cyclical and lead into secondary inflation growth. jonathan: is it an old story? fiscal conditions are timing. when you look at the bloomberg index or goldman sachs index and they are tying up in the u.s. next year, the markets are starting to take pricing out. and 2.0.emain 2.5 the fed is at real risk of going too far, too soon. jonathan: you really think so? joe: jay powell just looks that way. jonathan: what gives you that impression? up thee wants to get hill. he wants to go marching up the hill with rates. toust think he is going continue down that path, and the risk is just too much. that is really interesting. , this is still

u.s. administrations have done so poorly in negotiating. china has seen our demands there's been no folding as the media would love people to believe. the meetings haven't started yet. the u.s. has little to give because it's given so much over the years.

u.s. is starting to come through. it could push into 2019.hat happens beyond that with monetary policy tighter, you mark? big question is the market getting ahead of the federal reserve in terms of interest rates? morearket is forecasting rate hikes that the federal project is projecting. what is the take from that? luke: i think markets are concerned about higher oil prices and the geopolitical risk. that could have significant cyclical and lead into secondary -- more sector inflation growth. jonathan: is it an old story? joe: the dollar is doing some of the military tightening for the fed. the matter what index you look at they are tying up in the u.s. , if you get to next year, the markets are starting to take pricing out. it will remain 2.5 and 2.0. the fed is at real risk of going too far, too soon. jonathan: you really think so? looks any powell uberhawk. jonathan: what gives you that indication? luke: he wants to get up the hill. he wants to go marching up the hill with rates. he has room to get down the other side. i just think he is

u.s. starting to soften. that is starting to have an impact. currently have an impact and they need to be addressed. is thiserm, as you say, relationship when it comes to technology. it is china's ambition to become a tech superpower. throwing money at sectors like ai, the electric vehicles and robotics. you spoken to executives here in china that are a part of that made in china 2025 strategy. clearly the u.s. think that is a major security concern. that is why you see measures taken against some companies. she -- xi saying that china is doubling down on its efforts. what we are hoping to get at the end of today potentially is a positive comment. we don't know whether there is good to be a press conference or not. if they are able to set up a time frame or framework for future talks, and they're able to continue this positive mood music around the relationship, that will be seen as a positive for investors. been looking and searching and digging and hoping and waiting for any sort of positive sign here. tom, thank you so much. the trade talks

u.s. prosecutors start and then work their way up the rings last year to former managers have been sentenced to prison terms here in the us and probably they have helped to form their case against martin going to court. in september two thousand and fifteen u.s. regulators revealed their suspicions that software invented in v.w. diesel cars meant they could detect when an emissions test was being done the programming would then lower the car's emissions to meet the clean air standards winterkorn resigned as chief executive shortly afterwards saying he had been unaware of any wrongdoing but the indictment says venter korn was briefed on the issue at a meeting at the company's voice book headquarters in july during that meeting engine development employees described how v.w. was deceiving us regulators including precisely what information had been disclosed and what had not yet been disclosed they also spelled out the potential consequences of being caught. for months president donald trump denied it now the white house then the white house backed him up but now a surprise revelation by trump'

u.s. is starting to come through. that could possibly push this into 2019. what happens beyond that with a point in a cycle where monetary policy will be significantly tighter, i think that is a big question mark. jonathan: in the problem here is the market getting ahead of the federal reserve in terms of interest rates in a way that it has not in several years. the market is forecasting more rate hikes that the federal reserve itself is projecting. what is the signal you take from that? joe: i think markets are concerned about higher oil prices and the geopolitical risks are raised, and that could have significant cyclical and lead into more sector inflation -- secular inflation growth. jonathan: is it an oil story? joe: i am not convinced it is. the dollar is doing some of the military tightening for the fed. fiscal conditions are tightening, whether you look at the bloomberg index or the goldman sachs index, they are tightening up in the u.s. two.nk you get two and and the markets are starting to take pricing out of that it will third one. remain 2.5 and

u.s. has started investigation into whether car and truck imports threaten national security. investigation would unfold. tariff on vehicles up to 25% is under consideration. it sent shares in asian carmakers down. lease contact -- italy's to form aset government. the professor with no political experience has support from the five-star movement. group has a policy agenda which has already alarmed markets. the uk's prime minister will reportedly asked the eu for a second transition. to run until 2023 to cover custom and trade in goods to avoid issues in ireland. theresa may will ask for a period from 2021 until 2023. dayal news 20 -- 24 hours a on air and on twitter. howard by more than 2700 journalists and analysts, this is bloomberg. -- powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts, this is bloomberg. guy: this is what is happening with the lira right now. the effects did not last long. this is where we are right now. backa get some liquidity to the story, you are seeing the dollar rallying and this follows a dovish fed move. the market has questions of whether this is

u.s. senate in west virginia. >> when "all in" starts right now. >>> good evening from new york. i'm chris hayes. the president of the united states is taking right now concrete steps towards a major high stakes confrontation with his own justice department. the strongest advocate for cooperating with special counsel mueller is now leaving the president's legal team. the administration confirming that ty cobb who represents the white house in the mueller probe is stepping down at the end of the month. according to one report, cobb has been clashing with the president over trump's combative prostour towards the investigation. "ty was uncomfortable with the mueller tweets. he was not going to be part of a mudslinging campaign." >> if you take a look, they're so conflicted. the people that are doing the investigation you have 13 people that are democrats. you have hillary clinton people, you have people that worked on hillary clinton's foundation. they're all -- i don't mean democrats. i mean like the real deal. >> those claims are not true. we should note. cobb's successor reported

u.s. started processing the first immigrants camped on the border, but 11 have been charged for illegally . >>> porn star stormy daniels is suing the president for defamation. daniels says the president disparaged her in a tweet mocking her after a sketch of a man she says threatened her to keep quiet. >>> it's getting painful at the pump, and expect things to get worse. analysts say we could be looking at the highest summer gas prices in four years, up 40 cents from last year. >>> people are marking mayday, an internationally recognized day to celebrate laborers and the working class. it is mayday. it's may 1st. >>> from abc news, this is "world news now." >> our top story this half hour is that breaking news that some caravan migrants are now being processed. >> the group has been waiting at the border crossing for more than a day. organizers say the eight people being processed include three mothers, four children and a 18-year-old male. >> but the justice department is also accusing 11 other migrants of entering illegally and one has already been deported. maggie rulli has more. >> rep

at the end of the day of the u.s. startctioning european companies, it is going to be very difficult for those companies to be able to stay in the iranian market and provide the iranians with economic benefits they were promised as part of this deal. i think what pompeo and bolton have made is made the choice for the international community much, much easier and much clear than it was a couple of weeks ago. now it is quite clear either you collaborate with the trump administration and go along with these sanctions and walk away from this nuclear deal and by that you're hastening, speeding up this march toward war, or you resist the trump administration. and by that, you're giving peace a chance. juan: in his laundry list of 12 demands, one of the things iran'smentioned was expanding influence in support of what the u.s. calls terrorist groups around the region. but is net effect iran's influence in the region has grown on us as a direct result of foreign interventions in places like syria, iraq, and yemen even? iraq, -- and

stocks off to a mixed start after wall street sputters out. investors weighing u.s. job numbers. two of trade talks in beijing. the white house sees a positive start to negotiations. from bloomberg's global headquarters, i am a betty liu. president trump changing his story on stormy daniels, admitting he did repay hush money but saying it was legal. why a spending spree

u.s. actually started steep tariffs on solar panels and washing machines, from china to the u.s., then thehinese government answered with steep tariffs on those sorghum imports, so if there should get loose, and that is a good sign not just for sorghum but the u.s. agricultural sector in general. reporter: thank you very much indeed. to a deal now bringing us one step closer to a cashless society, u.s. online payment giant paypal is buying a swedish e-commerce startup. paypal is stomping out to billion dollars. it makes credit card scanners for smart phones and tablets. it is a big deal for a small firm, and the agreement came as a surprise as the young company was getting ready to make its stock market debut. now paypal, the leading online payment service belonged to ebay and has been valued at $94 billion. but this is their biggest acquisition to date. it is looking at ways to strengthen its platform for handling transactions with all businesses in europe and latin america which have made much easier with those small card readers. italy finally has a government deal after 2.5 months with

u.s. started here.assengers, was screened through various databases before he even left the plane. >> we already knew we needed to see him because of information already available to us. >> reporter: cbp says he was brought here for secondary screening, this as out of the sight of most travelers where he alleges he was mistreated. cbp says they have 28 hours of surveillance video of aba including this room in the secondary inspection area. they say the charges he made are false and outrageous. >> certainly we would never lock a person into a room with a loaded firearm that could be used to harm one of our own officers. likewise, it defies common sense that we would put someone in a room with a hand grenade that could be used against our own officers or a member of the traveling public. >> reporter: cbp says he would have spent a good portion of the time in this passenger lounge with access to blankets, pillows and chairs and they say when it comes to his account of what happened during his stay here and

u.s. has started an investigation into whether car and truck imports threaten security. according to a person family with the matter, an underigation would unfold the same laws as terrorists under steel and aluminum. under steel and aluminum. shares in asian carmakers have fallen after the announcement. north korea has again threatened to cancel its planned summits with resident donald trump next month. pyongyang hardened its rhetoric by saying it was ready for a nuclear to nuclear showdown if the u.s. did not change its approach to the disarmament talks. atop north korean diplomat issued a warning in response to suggestions from the trump administration the kim jong-un -- >> it is my view that we have made zero concessions to chairman kim to date and we have no intention of doing so. comte has started a search for a government that will satisfy his responses. the law professor was no x -- political experience is meeting with all political parties in rome today. he has the support of the anti-immigrant league. he has a policy agenda that has already alarmed markets. glob

u.s. started here. they say he, like all passengers, was screened through various databases before he even left the plane. >> we already knew we needed to see him because of information already available to us. >> reporter: cbp says he was brought here for secondary screening, this as out of the sight of most travelers where he alleges he was mistreated. cbp says they have 28 hours of surveillance video of aba including this room in the secondary inspection area. they say the charges he made are false and outrageous. >> certainly we would never lock a person into a room with a loaded firearm that could be used to harm one of our own officers. likewise, it defies common sense that we would put someone in a room with a hand grenade that could be used against our own officers or a member of the traveling public. >> reporter: cbp says he would have spent a good portion of the time in this passenger lounge with access to blankets, pillows and chairs and they say when it comes to his account of what happened

couple of days or next couple of weeks, actually, you're going to see other exchanges here in the u.s. start trading u.s. dollar payers against other cryptocurrencies i would expect as that trading expands, you'll see less dominance of bitcoin, correlation to everything else, and on boarding into other cryptocurrencies. >> thanks for that, bk we want to move on in our crypto conversation one man intimately familiar with selloff asiff hirji, largest online crypto brother. number 10 on disruptor list. he joins us in las vegas where he's at a credit suisse. great to have you back on the show. >> great to be here. >> we want to talk about crypto selloff. what are you seeing among your client base as far as trading, is there still that interest in crypt, to we saw in the fourth quarter in terms of trading volumes? >> the trading volumes are highly correlated where the asset prices are going up more people trading crypto asset prices going up, trading seeing healthy volumes there, very happy with the way the business is going. as your press said it's a volatile asset class i'm personally not surpr

u.s. starting really in that moment but especially in the 1950s the question of why america that seem to have, be so close to achieving something else in china had not managed to do it and why the communist had one became a source of kind of incredible reclamation. marshall was at the center of this. there's a famous line from joseph mccarthy in 1950 i believe that talks about a conspiracy, and communist plot to destroy american leadership. that was delivered in a three-hour speech about george marshall. an attack on this figure who was one of the most prominent military and diplomatic leaders of the time was essentially being denounced as a trade or at least kind of communist front man on the floor of the u.s. congress. it was such a powerful force in u.s. politics that a couple of years later in 1952 when dwight eisenhower was running for president, he didn't defend marshall. and eisenhower had been created by marshall. he was a junior officer, plucked out by marshall during the war and given battlefield command. marshall supported him take it over to d-day command ultimately. his whole car

so let's start with the assumption that the u.s. was responsible which is not clear at this point which you just heard us talking about what would the motivation have been here. well i think that the it's not clear statements from the pentagon are very strange statements i think i mean they don't have information to substantiate. it can't they say yes or no. and why would they be motivated to say something like that but. i think that either the u.s. or israel carried out the attack and vote i really trying to inflict more and more damage and the syrian led coalition of syria iran hezbollah and of course the support of russia so and we also see i think i don't very strong at times to separate the all wail of syria from the syrian government controlled from the control from the control that they have over that very valuable resource and that is. clearly one of the aims of the. and u.s. forces in the eastern part of syria so i think it is. you know we don't have the way to know exactly who carried out the attack we do are able to know

u.s. actually started steve tariffs on solar panels and washing machines. here from the from china to the u.s. and then the chinese government answered with. a terrorist sum on those. imports so if those should get loosened that's a good sign not just for sorghum but for the u.s. are going cultural sector in general. thank you very much indeed. to deal now bring us one step closer to a cashless society u.s. online payment giant pay powell says it's by a swedish e-commerce startup it's a company called death toll now paperless jumping up over two billion dollars for eyes etal it makes credit card scanners for small phones and and for tablets it's a big deal for a small firm and the agreement came as quite a surprise just as the young company was getting ready to make its stock market debut now pay pal the world's leading online payment service belong to either a until twenty fifteen and has been valued at ninety four billion dollars but this is pay pal's biggest acquisition to date is looking at ways to strengthen its platform for handling transactions with s

u.s. assistant attorney daniel goldberg. let's start with these subpoenas. the significance of subpoenas of stone's associates while he hasn't been called to talk to mueller. >> is evidence of a methodical approach by mueller and his prosecutors. you want to gather a lot of evidence and move up the chain. i see this as a back to basics move. we've only gotten peephole visions into what mueller's been up to. but for all the people who say the investigation's gone far afield of its original intent this is evidence to the

will the u.s. start to sanction venezuela even more? we will keep you up-to-date on that.rg. ♪ lisa: this is "bloomberg markets." i am lisa abromowicz. time for options inside with julie hyman. is jimjoining me strugger from mkm holdings. last week, we were talking about an etf that tracks the china a- shares, i believe. we were talking about china-u.s. trade tensions. and today, things have turned around, seemingly. what are you watching now? do you continue to watch fxi as a proxy for what is happening? >> absolutely. one of the reasons we got interested last week, it is not just run zte, but also the north korean-u.s. summit, now set for a few weeks from now in singapore. but fxi options open interest was normal to your lows. you have a series of events coming, yet the option market shows little to no interest. we like to see that. so we put those two facts together last week, showing of site in fxi. and a showing upside in fx -- showing upside in fxi. given these events playing out over the next few weeks and really months until trade put to it -- tensions hopefully ea

u.s. to start imposing those nasty sanctions is going to create a lot of problematic and serious impediment support iranian economy so this is still extremely uncertain yes the iranian president said potentially we can live without the u.s. when it comes to the future of iran deal but we're not sure how. the russian chinese and the european counterparts going to kind of create and provide a package which would save the iran deal in the future supposedly of the american exit from the existing framework and finally based on what you just said and i know it's conditional but if iran were to stay within the agreement will that affect donald trump's thinking because surely it would be highly embarrassing of the u.s. to pull out of the deal and then find that actually they were needed anyway and have no effect i mean it is already extremely embarrassing for for the united states this is this is a dismissive this deal is a binding international law it has been kind of negotiated between iran and many of the powers in europe in asia.

economymber, the u.s. startstarts tightening typically about 12 months before the recession. looking at the curve, there is a more than 50% chance risk of recession, sometime in mid 2020. that means the whole thing starts to slow midsummer. tom: erik nielsen with us from unicredit for a generous our. this is the coolest thing if you have a bloomberg. we waited years to develop this. demand,emand -- by huge graph tv . an exquisite chart here on asia dxy. over here, you have the quality of the coffee in america versus francine's coffee in london, which is going up. v. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ is "bloomberg surveillance." tom and francine, as always, from london and new york. figures in housing are set to debit a little bit. this does not bode well for the u.k. as it faces brexit negotiations. erik nielsen of unicredit still with us. gdp figures, specially when it comes to construction, may be because of the snow factor p the pmi numbers today, does it change the storytelling? is there something more worrying

u.s. started to discuss tapering, a number of emerging markets, which had told her abilities than, averageuced them. some of the risk that banks used to take by borrowing in dollars-ish shifting to the -- dollars is shifting to the private sector. more countries have put on macro -- companies can borrow in foreign currency and borrowing directly from corporate bond markets. so you see a shift of risk away from banks to individual companies in the corporate bond market. the sector is now exposed to more dollar debt. as u.s. raises interest rates, i worry there will be some risks in these sectors that we don't have good data on, that we don't have good data on, that we don't regulate as good as banks. >> [indiscernible] when the bank goes out, you see where they are rocks are. [laughter] again, that was kristin forbes with kathleen hays. now a quick look at the business flash headlines. forecasting 1.6 u.s. dollars as mobile sales rise. fourth-quarter net income was $583 million u.s.d. says thergan stanley new global shipping rules will support oil prices for the next two years. it is taking

u.s. embassy starting today. we are live on the ground with the overnight celebrations as well protests to this event. jillian: denuclearization is not nonnegotiationable. inside look at the upcoming summit and what the united states prepare today put on the table. rob: also stopping the spread of sun culture in schools. liberal lawmaker now taking aim at school rifle and even archery teams. "fox & friends first" continues right now. carley: good morning, you're watching "fox & friends first" on monday morning, i'm carley shimkus in for jillian mele. rob: i'm rob schmitt, history in holy land, celebrations ahead of u.s. embassy open. carley: prime minister netanyahu welcoming delegation for truly historic morning. harris faulkner live. historic to say the least. >> it is, i'm going to get to what you mentioned because there's news that are breaking at this hour, but first of all, they have begun arriving here at the u.s. consulate, this is where the new u.s. embassy offices will be housed. we have a consulate, th

a question if the u.s. starts to implode. what about the impact on other regions of instability spreading from the united states? those are concerns that anybody in moscow would have to wrestle with as they think about what their goals are vis-a-vis the united states. a final thought before q&a. an actualote from american soviet expert who wrote a book i would recommend, called "russia under western eyes." says that western opinion has either demonized or i'd -- becaused russia, less of her real role in europe and then becauseates of the fears and frustrations, the hopes and aspirations generated within western society by its own domestic problems. i would submit today that the united states is going through of domestic period problems, generated from within. projecting those domestic problems and fears onto russia and positing they reflect actual tensions. we have to look at this with more scrutiny. paul: thank you very much. before we open it up to questions, george set out a thesis that is somewhat controversial in the con