u.s. treasuries that as you mentioned was that it's the biggest foreign creditor to the u.s. but if we look ahead the us is running a huge deficit and that's a rather likely to increase especially with the tax cuts that the new and as the administration just implemented so the u.s. depends on foreign buyers to keep buying a u.s. treasuries and if china would stop doing so that could have huge implications on the financial markets and also for the economic growth overall until then we will just be thankful that it's friday thank you very much for the analysis and for reports throughout the week. now the worse case scenario of this tariff conflict that's remind everyone would be a trade war were all global economy start imposing levies on each other however it's important to remember that trump is doing this as a retaliation for what he and many others consider unfair trade practices from china needless to say it's a controversial topic. if you thought it was just a spat between the u.s. and china think again the contagion from trump's tariffs will reach european shores weighin

u.s. treasuries and u.s. paper when the global environment is somewhat uncertain.oing back to the backdrop, where we have relatively weak inflation pressures. we are not expecting to see any sort of particular downward pressure. thank you. on the bond market. manus: ok, sara. lots more to get through. futures a little higher, up .7%. of next, the protests in barcelona. ♪ >> if we talk about a tit-for-tat war, we could have an issue, and intact, on global gdp. tinto that was the rio ceo at the chinese development form. that's get into these markets. dani burger is standing by. good morning. let's take a look at these markets. risk off is the prevailing sentiment today. 1.5% down. the worst after these tensions really escalating between the u.s. and china. japan coming back a bit. hong kong down as well. this comes after the worst week for u.s. equities since 2016. at go ahead and take a look at the charts and see what different asset classes are telling us. emerging-market currencies deciding this risk might actually be contained. these are export heavy countries. t

u.s. treasuries.ll, the selloff continued on wall street after the dow jones industrial average fell 720 points on thursday. we dropped another 400 points on friday. no happy ending here on wall street for the week. >> you just mentioned one of the key points, the possibility of china slowing the purchase of u.s. treasuries. we know that china is america's most important international creditor. what effect could this have if they decide to do so? >> that could have huge implications. china right now is sitting on roughly $1.2 trillion in u.s. treasuries. it is the biggest foreign creditor to the u.s. if we look ahead, the u.s. is running a huge deficit. that is likely to increase, especially with the tax cuts the new administration just implemented. the u.s. depends on foreign buyers to keep buying u.s. treasuries. if china were to stop doing so, that could have huge implications on the financial markets and also for the economic growth overall. >> until then, we will be thankful it is friday. thank y

u.s. treasuries on their bounce -- balance sheet.hey could sell some, because the lower you put into the markets, the lower the price goes and they could lose money. also, they have pegged to the u. n. to the dollar. they need to buy a certain a mount -- amount to keep them relatively stable. mark: president trump will speak in 10 minutes on the spending bill. michael: the white house website says at 1 p.m. the president will attend a bill signing ceremony. the spendingto bill, the government would in theory shut down at midnight. members of congress have scattered, they have headed across the country because they thought they have finished. even if the president called up the leadership today, they would not be able to vote on it. you would have a temporary shutdown. the president has wide discretion as to what he would shut down. he kept museums open and things like that during the brief shutdown a few months ago. the americans might not notice it if they come to a quick agreement. they have been fighting about these issues for yea

u.s. treasuries and as you mentioned was that it's the biggest foreign creditor to the u.s. but if we look ahead to you the u.s. is running a huge deficit and that's a rather likely to increase especially with the tax cuts that the new and as the administration just implemented saw the u.s. depends on foreign buyers to keep buying a u.s. treasuries and if china would stop doing so that could have huge implications on the financial markets and also for the economic growth overall and until then we will just be thankful that it's friday thank you very much for the analysis and for reports throughout the week. now donald trump's crackdown on china as we just saw is bringing the global markets down the worst case scenario let's remind everyone would be a trade war were all global economies start imposing tariffs on each other however it's important to remember that president trump is doing this as a retail e ation for what he and many others consider unfair trade practices from china needless to say opinions are mixed. if you thought it was just a spat between the u.s. and china

u.s. treasury secretary says he is optimistic. foxnewsuchin told besides are engaged and productive conversation. less with the president announced measures against china announced $50 billion for punishment against intellectual theft. >> we are having negotiations with the chinese to see if we could reach an agreement. as the president has that, we want to cut the trade deficit with hundred billion dollars over the next year and eliminate force joint measures and we are having productive conversations with them. i am cautiously hopeful we will reach an agreement, but if not, we are proceeding with these tariffs. ed: in barcelona called protesters have flesh with police over the arrest of the leader. exile inen living in brussels, but was arrested in germany and could be sent back to think of his trial. he is been traveling around europe, pressing the case for catalonia defendants. we'll climbs to a two-month high as saudi arabia intercepted ballistic missiles by force in yemen. the missiles were intercepted above riiad and in oth

u.s. treasuries to begin with they have higher yielding than ecb. they're higher yielding than japanese bonds they can't buy anything else >> they're not going to dump their treasuries it kills them. we are their client. they want to take care of us >> the bigger issue though, that's not to me, the bigger issue to me is is that why do we want to resurrect industries that at their best were barely profitable and were incredibly cyclical to the point where regardless of what pricing was, you would have these waves of mass layoffs and factory closes. why would we want to prioritize that then hurt a company like boeing massive margins, massive job growth what posb possible use zblsh why would you bring lodge i guess into this? >> so now, wait. >> you wouldn't accept if it's political. hold on. you had a special election in pennsylvania, pittsburgh specifically a couple of weeks ago. week and a half ago. just prior to that he brings in steel workers in full regalia into the oval office to watch him sign a fake piece of paper >> can i take the other side

u.s. treasury bond trading and. c.m.e. is the largest interest rate futures market trading like any ext c.m.e. has a sizable and growing foreign exchange futures business at this point the negotiations are ongoing and under the rules of the london stock exchange where any x. group is traded their stock is traded c.m.e. group has until april twelfth to make an offer to. unilever the anglo dutch consumer goods company is moving its headquarters out of the u.k. to the netherlands unilever says there will be a net loss of fifty jobs down from one hundred between the two current headquarter locations in the u.k. and in the netherlands well unilever c.e.o.

u.s. treasury secretary steven mnuchin says he is optimistic the u.s.he need for president trump's tariffs on $50 billion worth of goods. mnuchin says they are having "very productive conversations" with beijing. our correspondent joins us from beijing. the executive director of the center for international studies, tom, joins us from sydney. , you are at the china development forum and have spoken to a lot of policymakers and business leaders. what is the sense you are getting? what are they saying? there is a deep level of concern among executives we about thenot so much immediate impact but about the longer-term impact if the trade tensions do exacerbate. there is a view here that i think is something of a consensus. the chances of these trade tensions escalating into a full-blown trade war are on the lower side, and there is also something of a sense of relief in terms of what is seen as a moderate response from the chinese. we heard that from the likes of economists, who say china has stronger tools that they could revert to should trump and the wa

u.s. treasury's. -- treasuries. ifre is plenty more to come the u.s.es to stay with us reckless policy. moving towardsen domestically driven demand. it has been part of the agenda for china for a long time. this will accelerate that pace. and china has the resources and to tools with which withstand the kind of aggressive action. for growth,good won't be good for geopolitical reasons. so why at this point in time we don't see financial markets being overly impacted by this protection by weight. i think it keeps going on, it could be very disturbing. betty: some big guests and voices talking about the potential fallout between the hit the china which markets friday. to dig deeper into this potential trade war, we are joined by a guest from washington, and to others. others. let me start with you because we had steve mnuchin on fox news sunday say that, the u.s. doesn't want a trade war. that is not their objective, but it feels like or seems as if everything they are doing is taking this into a trade war. you believe him? >> i think we need to take a bi

u.s. treasuries are not a safe haven. jonathan: lori, thank you, alongside henry, and matt. check where markets have been throughout the week. this is what it looks like in the united states. treasury yields, believe it or not, unchanged throughout the whole week. a slight bit on the 30 year, down two basis points. still ahead on this program, the final spread of the week ahead and rate decisions from the boj and ecb and coming up this weekend, the italian election. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ jonathan: this is bloomberg "real yield." it's time for the spread. next week, we have rate decisions coming from the european central bank and bank of japan and the beginning of the national people's congress annual meeting in china, the u.s. jobs report, and the italian election. still with me, henry peabody, matt thomas, and lori. why are we so calm about the italian election? lori: i think we have become numb to the continent. realistically there are not a lot of great choices there, so it will be status quo prevails but it won't be without a lot of drama. henry: we are at a point in tim

u.s. treasuries brought forth the yield of 2.80 percent. that was in line with expectation. ask just investors are looking to the u.s. cpi readings later today, the last piece of data before the federal reserve meeting next week. let's bring in the head of a specific equity research over at bnp paribas. in inresults are coming line with expectations but those expectations are low. yields on the tenure auction, we have the u.s. treasury hang the highest's 2007 to sell three-year notes on monday. take a look at this chart. it shows speculative positioning on ten-year treasury futures. you can see those shorts are building. does it feel to you like the bond bears are we are weakening -- are reawakening? >> as far as the bond market is concerned, the pace of the bond yields rising is slightly earlier. it was a bit of a surprise. i think it is too late to conclude. it is clear that the way the bond yields rose is partly reflecting the markets expectation about monetary policy that the fed is likely to -- our own expectation about that policy has changed. earlier this year we chang

u.s. treasuries under almost any circumstance. e get any kind of ructions .verybody rushes to treasuries we keep adding more and more will be- the fed pulling back on its buying so that means more available into the regular markets. will people continue to absorb it? at some point do they say we don't want it unless you pay significantly more. we did see a higher priced paid today, high-yield higher than it was trading before the auction. we will see if that continues with the tens this afternoon and into the 30's tomorrow. vonnie: you can see that yield -- mark: it is worth noting postcrisis financial regulations make it more costly for primary bond dealers. another added equation to this auction process. michael: they don't want to hold a lot of treasuries because it counts against their capital ratios. there is a move to make that easier going forward. they don't warehouse as much in terms of bonds as they used to. that makes it harder, more expensive for everybody. vonnie: just pulled up the three-year yield over the last year.

u.s. treasury is that auction $21 million in 10-year note, and a lot more this week.past two years, the drop-off has been unmistakable with the average demand for 10 year notes down to the lowest since october 2009. us is brian devonte. some of this is to be expected. brian: it's an interesting mix. normally as interest rates rise, bond prices fall, which means losses. you expect people to be stepping back from the bond market right now but additional supply that's coming from the treasury to is theudget deficits right original whole process and that's why we are seeing demand fall unmistakably over the past two years on average, from auction to auction it may fluctuate, and there are more short-term dynamics at play. and that mightg serve to be a risk for the treasury. chart 6582 showing just that when it comes to 10-year note and demand falling. sinceg to the lowest october 2009, 2.246. this is a reflection we can see more pressure on rates going up, given the supply? brian: it's definitely possible. the trend is towards higher rates. we will see today, we have a th

u.s. treasury will sell $28 billion in three-year notes. the u.s. leases the budget statement. treasury and eco-dad at, three-year auctions and cpi data tomorrow. favorites,ersonal you mesh consumer sentiment. us, kathleen, want to start with the auction today. there is talk about the risk thing monday, not a good did to cover. the 10th cover. >> all eyes will be watching how this supply is taken down. we have seen diminished demand come down. it is still able to keep the study. i do not expect anything surprising, but it has everyone's attention. alix: what is surprising is the reaction to the market, which is now you're seeing a little bit of a flat in her. does that make sense? kathleen: we are on a path to normalization. i think there is going to continue to be a lot of back-and-forth. we will see some flattening and steepening depending on how much demand is coming in at the long end and how much inflation data we are saying which could move the short end of a year from now the direction is we are going to see higher rates and a flatter curve. d

u.s. cents level. debt trackingi the two-year treasuries. day asling for a third u.s. stockpiles are seen expanding.n ore gaining ground in percent., up .04 iorn ore irn o -- picture, i want to look at the fortescue. at stock was cut to sell more globalooks than cyclical. creditors are not going to make an interest payment due on march 9. most stocks are sliding. electronics and financials weighing the most. samsung under pressure that china may acquiesce to american pressure. biggestkers among the laggers. cosco leaving that industry decline as industries digest implications of the trade deal. on inter-korean ties may generate business for builders. elevator rising and declining from --declining from other stocks that are associated with china. rishaad: having a look at more details and confirmation of that mysterious visit to beijing. with that story in the rest of the first word news. paul: chinese state media confirms north korean leader kim jong-il was in beijing. -- jong-un was in beijing and wants to-based communications with china on denuclearization of the korean peninsula. facebook fell he

u.s. treasury -- u.s. treasuries.he two-yearred to and three-year notes, often in very heavy demand from foreigners, due to excess reserve purposes. david: a 30 year option is coming up tomorrow -- auction is coming up tomorrow. there is one million more now than there was in january, but they are stable. right now, we are in a study environment. two-year notes are going to be increased by another $2 billion, and another $2 billion in april. we do also have another view on the inflation front from cpi numbers. we also have the fed march meeting. be the key elements investors will be looking at as they try to assess bond markets? is what isallenge the function of the federal reserve. will next week's statement by the federal reserve is very hawkish? you could see two-year and three-year notes go up and a flexor yield curve, but we have not seen that yet this year. with the clocks shifting this past weekend in the united states, so has part of our schedule. bloomberg real yield will be at 11:30 new york time this friday

u.s. treasuries. saw the yield come down below 2.8% yesterday in the u.s., that wethe first time since 2017 have seen at that low. we are holding at that level. the question now is we have had a number of guests who are short u.s. treasury, will the yield stay there or bounceback up as investors want to buy the shorter end of the are and selloff the 10 year yield. let's get the bloomberg first word news with debra mao. debra: the leaders of north and south three a have agreed to meet face to face on april 27. the announcement comes after officials held talks on their heavily militarized border. a summit between kim jong-un and president moon jae-in could set the stage for similar meeting between kim and u.s. president donald trump. a summit between kim and shinzo abe may take place as soon as early june. detectives investigating the poisoning of a former russian spy and his daughter. believe they first came in contact with the nerve agent at their home. the metropolitan police said specialists have id

u.s. treasury secretary steve and u.s. trade representative robert blight hisor topics they'll cover include manufacturing and financial services u.s. president donald trump and recently announced tariffs of up to sixty billion dollars in chinese imports the chinese have said they won't be bullied. the mummy found baby misjudge the situation and underestimate china's determination and capacity for defending its legitimate interests also underestimate the price the us has to pay for its reckless behavior. u.s. business leaders in china are warning that a full scale trade war would not benefit either side. the response from our members has been one of concerned these actions could lead to a trade war which is something that nobody wants to see at the same time it's important to recognize that there has been a growing sense of frustration within the business community about the lack of progress and market access openings in china is increasing use of industrial policies minucci an in-line hisor sent to you a letter last week

u.s. treasuries to the widest in four decades. 90 minutes into the session in the u.s..ow is it looking? julie: it is looking bouncy. stocks are kind of moving around within this range. the most of the three major averages but now has cut that decline to three quarters of a percent. a lot of movement even within this short session. a lot of the downward movement is in technology as you can tell and in particular with the so-called faang stocks, amazon one of the worst performers among them. the index down 13%. tesla, one of these momentum stocks. today decline as the company is dealing with an accident that occurred on the west coast. tesla saying it has not gotten access to the vehicle's logs. it is working with authorities to do so. has led did preemptively defend the record of its autopilot safety features -- tesla did preemptively defend the record of its autopilot safety features. walgreens coming up with numbers that beat estimates. pharmacy sales are strong as it acquired a number of rite aid stores. in the negative even though it set a record for software revenue

u.s. treasury coming out and saying we're sanctioning these for their involvement in the russian meddling2016. impact couldind of these sanctions actually have? debated here in washington today. you had republicans such as the speaker paul ryan saying that this was long overdue and moves. ng these at the same time you had other warner on the rk enate intelligence committee say more needs to be don't done. analyst told us will this actually change russia's desire u.s.? et the because we've heard from top telligence agencies this year's 2018 midterm election are again for target meddling so that's the question, ether this is enough or it's just symbolic or enough to actually influence russian behavior thank you so much for that update. national omberg security reporter in washington, d.c. market , a new way to research and it's all about a.i. of street bees is connecting customers to next. es this is bloomberg. ♪ mily: at&t will face off against the justice department starting monday. the d.o.j. is trying to block $109 billioniant's take overof time warner. at&t would give it .nfair advanta

u.s. treasury secretary larry summers speaking at the china development form.nwhile, the ceo of ubs, sergio ermotti, was also at the event, speaking exclusively to tom mackenzie. he said he is becoming increasingly worried about a global trade war. >> they start to get concerned. i think for the time being, of course the demers our modest in respect to the impacts, that we see the operation of this tension on the bilateral acis, potentially escalating. it won't be good for geopolitics . this point in time we don't see financial markets being overly impacted by this protection, i do think if it keeps going on, this could be very disturbing. >> the market selloff on friday was pretty severe. it has been flagged by the trump administration. >> at the end of the day, it is always difficult to understand corrections that are coming as a consequence of the announcement, they are doing as the market develops. we remainme being, constructive on equities and gross, but as i said before, we have to pay attention that this won't escalate and create retaliation. particular

u.s. treasury secretary steve mnuchin faces a cool reception at today's g20 meeting. he be able to fend u.s. digital interests? this is bloomberg. ♪ matt: welcome back to bloomberg daybreak. i am matt miller in berlin. one hour 10 minutes to go until the start of cash trading. 40 minutes to go until the european market open. let's get the bloomberg business flash. juliette saly. apple is designing and producing its own device displays for the first time, using a secret manufacturing facility near it california headquarters to make small numbers of the screen for testing purposes. according to people familiar with the situation, the technology giant is making a significant investment in the development of next generation micro led screens. an apple spokeswoman declined to comment. u.s. and european government officials demanding answers from facebook after reports that cambridge analytical, the data from that helped donald trump when the u.s. presidency, retained information on tens of millions of facebook users without their consent. they spoke has already testified a

u.s. treasuries in order to stabilize that system. think in truth, having these discussions between the president and china's leadership about lowering this trade deficit and about china and its practice of stealing our u.s. technology and intellectual properties, it is long overdue. the challenge as you know is to make sure -- you have to be very cautious about punishing american families and workers for china's misbehavior. i think the president's right to be having these discussions with china. i think he is right to be listening carefully to american businesses and workers who are using fairly traded products. we have to make sure that tariffs don't stop the growth in any way. david: discussions are one thing. a trade war is something else. you talked about the texans really liking the tax cuts. how do they feel about a possible trade war? republican states are concerned about exports. --. brady: it is important back home, i hear that we want to be able to compete around the world. you hear that energy and manufacturing and aerosp

u.s. treasury is calling for an investigation into qualcomm, putting the deal on broadcom on hold.is broadcom was poised to score a board majority. that story, next. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ the trump administration is taking a harder stance on foreign deals. u.s. --'s ceo and the the u.s. treasury has moved to suspend broadcom's takeover of qualcomm, saying that poses a national security risk. it came as broadcom was on track. broadcom was a threat to national security while qualcomm is the opposite? >> this is supposed to be over today, this is supposed to be the pushback. the argument is interesting. they are looking at the difference in two corporate colleges, saying qualcomm is a huge investor, update part of the future of 5g and america being a world leader in that. they have not made any issuance yet, but they say there are concerns broadcom, if it potentially became the owner of it, would limit the spending and imperil america's position as a leader in 5g.at the moment, it is preliminary. shery: what is qualcomm researching? vonnie: now it is getting scary. what are the resea

u.s. treasury data thursday that shows china's u.s.oldings declined trillion.o $1.17 china remains the biggest foreign creditor to the u.s., holding so many notes, bills and bonds. they are followed by japan in second place. of u.s. bondship sold for the fourth straight month. is there-this story? our news team in tokyo pointed out an interesting thing we need to look at g #btv 9267. we are going to compare foreign custody holdings, the new york fed holds securities for foreign central banks. this blue line shows they are seeing china's holdings are starting to read accelerate, starting to rise again, even though the less reason data is showing they are falling. they are saying maybe this is a false and nothing has changed much yet. we will listen to kudlow, change these lines. betty: thank you so much, kathleen hays. i want to quickly mention that wesfarmers shares are up 5% in sydney trade with of that announcement they will be spinning off colds, after their afterition -- coles, their acquisition. that is a supermarket. they are in

u.s. treasury saying we're sanctioning these individuals for their involvement in the russian meddling of6. emily: what kind of impact could these sanctions actually have? >> that has been the debate here in washington today. you had republicans such as the house speaker paul ryan saying that this was long overdue and supporting these moves. at the same time you let others like senator mark warner on the senate intelligence committee say more needs to be done. an analyst told us will this won't move the needle, will this actually change russia's desire to target the u.s.? we have heard from top that thence agencies 2018 midterm elections are potential target for meddling. oft is really the question whether this is enough, or if it is symbolic and enough to influence russian behavior. emily: fascinating, thank you for that update. our bloomberg national security reporter in washington, d.c. coming up, a new way to market research and it's all about a.i. how a team of streetbees is connecting customers to companies next. bloomberg technology is livestreaming on twitter. check us out 5:00 p.

u.s. treasury and they can throw you away for a life but i want to look at a headline about a start up in the old fashion world and that's part of why combinator went to silicon valley startup incubators and this is illegal apparently a startup is pitching a mind uploading service that is one hundred percent fatal so this is a company called next tome and it's founded by some guy robert mcintyre and basically you'll be able to load your brain. on a cad jaz you have to basically have physician assisted suicide write while it solves two problems with one great start up you relieve yourself of the burden of this mortal coil and you achieve immortality these are the the psychological imprint of new consciousness to the close so it's very have been like it's a good we're going to the club the pearly gates of this but you know this is what happens during the whole process remember alan greenspan renews during the federal reserve bank that the economy is getting lighter by that he meant that we are moving away from an economy based on stuff ships and trains and trucks coming by. on electrons and

u.s. treasury department which chairs the committee invoked national security concerns and told qualcomm in a letter to delay a shareholder meeting to consider the one hundred seventeen billion dollar bid that had been set for today until the committee can fully review the bid the committee sees qualcomm's five g. wireless technology as sensitive to national security and is increasingly concerned about keeping such as bent technologies out of the hands of chinese firms the decision to review the deal was in response to a petition from qualcomm to the committee after broadcom as hostile bid escalated to nominating six candidates for qualcomm's eleven board member the review means the deal is unlikely to proceed. the federal trade commission is challenging j.m. smucker company proposed their acquisition of west and cooking oil brand from food and egg giant con agra brands smucker already owns christgau brand the f.t.c. and the f.t.c. says in an official and administrative complaint that if smucker were to acquire western brand it would then control more than seventy percent of the market for

u.s. treasury. come's plenty of more to if the u.s. chooses to stay with this reckless policy., if it continues it will have an effect, but otherwise it won't. back with us is lori calvasina, head of u.s. equities at rbc. consensusee with the that it has been more bark than bite? lori: i think that's true. we haven't seen an impact yet, but we are going through a good old-fashioned global growth scare and investors are starting next.der what happens lisa: to be clear, the growth scare is independent of a trade skirmish. >> i think that people are afraid of global growth and the threat of tariffs. people said that this was technical and not fundamental and wouldn't touch the underlying economy. thehere are questions about expectations for this growth we have binge joining. but if you look at the actual data, the fundamental backdrop remains sound, though there have been signs that it is a bit wobbly. is there reason to be skeptical right now? lori: at a the issues that we have seen you can attribute to noise. but we do survey analysts and we asked them to evaluate the health of

u.s. treasuries or devaluing the yuan. at thisseems likely stage, but china has no shortage of tools at its disposal. tom mackenzie bloomberg, beijing. shery: for more on china's response, let's bring in china's ambassador to the u.s., cui tiankai, was with us from washington. a messenger, thank you for -- ambassador, thank you for your time. tom mackenzie was describing options that china could be waiting at the moment. are you prepared for more action? ambassador cui: well, thank you. we are clearly against any unilateral protectionist moves. we do not want a trade war with anybody. we are trying to avoid one. but if a trade war is forced on us, we have to fight back. shery: how are you prepared to fight back? allssador cui: we will take the measures necessary. you have already seen the announcement made by the chinese minister of commerce, and you will see what we do next. shery: what areas do you believe, ambassador, for cooperation between the u.s. and china? ambassador cui: i think there is great potential, and indee

u.s. treasury was preparing to use national security law in order to block chinese companies from investingu.s. high-tech firms like 5g for example. he suggested that this could be an option. >> obviously china protects its national defense they have a much stricter restriction on who can invest here and i think we have to also make sure that our national defense and our technology advantages are not stolen and that's what the administration is looking at to make sure that we are protecting america's interest in the technologies of the future >> he also said the chinese can make all sorts of investments in the united states that american companies can't do here. he believes that needs to be corrected. i asked him about secretary -- treasury secretary mnuchin's possible trip to beijing he wouldn't confirm that but said the secretary does like to be directly involved in these types of negotiations. >> eunice yoon in beijing, thank you very much. we'll see you in a bit >>> on deck, another white house shakeup. the va secretary is out. president trump's proposed replacement already has everybod

u.s. treasury, they will be selling 3, 10 and 30 year notes, and angela merkel will be an underrated as chancellorrth term. mario draghi speaking and we get the latest read on u.s. inflation. the cti number. must watch, kerley. still with me, guy, diana and rj. still with us. in a week where there is up session over what would and wouldn't happen with international trade, seemingly em is ok. why do emerging markets proved to be so result in rhetoric -- relative to the rhetoric around a trade war with the united states and everyone else? diana: there are a couple of things at play here. one, the trade that has been announced so far, the impact on emerging markets is fairly marginal, so the terrorists -- tarrifs are not that large. in the commodities space, china is the largest consumer commodities. in emerging markets, what happens to china is a bigger driver on the outlook than just the u.s. the last thing is, we don't know if there is any retaliation. we are not at the point it is a war. it is more of the u.s. has made an announcement and we are waiting to see whether there is any fallout from th

u.s. treasuries. ill be selling 3, 10 and 30 year notes, and angela merkel will be inaugurated as fourth term as chancellor. mario draghi speaking and we get the latest read on u.s. inflation. the cpi number. must watch, apparently. guy, scott, diana and rj. in a week where there is obsession over what would and wouldn't happen with international trade, seemingly em is ok. why did emerging markets proved to be so resilient to the rhetoric around a trade war with the united states and everyone else? diana: i think there are a couple of things at play here. one, the trade that has been announced so far, the impact on emerging markets is fairly marginal, so the tarrifs are not -- the tariffs on steel and aluminum are not that large. two, in the commodities space, china is the largest consumer of commodities. in emerging markets, what happens to china is a bigger driver on the outlook than just the u.s. the last thing is, we don't know if there is any retaliation. we are not yet at the point where it is a

u.s. treasury secretary larry summers. we learned a lesson in january about underpriced risk when it came to volatility. is risk underpriced? mr. summers: i see more people who seem too serene then i encounter who seem to be excessively alarmed. to that extent, this does not seem to be a profitous time for investors. erik: how difficult a situation is this for the fed chairman? mr. summers: it is a difficult balance between the legitimate desire to stimulate the economy and to get as much employment and growth as possible, and certainly to the that inflation gets back to 2% and maybe even the average inflation rate gets back to 2%. at the same time i think you have to worry about the financial foundation for recovery if you are the fed chair. i think there is a balance to be struck. erik: is he in a dammed if he does, dammed if he doesn't situation? mr. summers: i think that is for trying things were negatively than i would. but i certainly think it is a very difficult balancing act. i think jay powell has a lot of experie

u.s. treasury. we don't know happened to that point.hey would disregard the sar or send them to the fbi. we don't know what the sar shows because it is not public information. here is what we do know. we know the president and his appointees, the treasure secretary control this. and if mr. cohn does not have an objection to it, if he doesn't believe anything was untoward about this. then release the sar, it is a fairly brief document but going to be illuminating as to the details relating to this tran transaction. if there is nothing there, then there is nothing there. >> i sense release the sar is going to be your new rallying cry. >> it is very simple. a straightforward document. >> the bank that we have been seeing the e-mails from that michael cohn has moved from one account to the other, that is the bank that said something was suspicious? >> that is correct. that e-mail that was on the screen earlier from first republic bank, the e-mail saying the money has been placed in this new account from which it was ultimately wired to ms.

u.s. inflation. jonathan: what are the risks for treasuries?caught up with bill gross. >> i think we will see fed funds somewhere around 2% or 2.25% as opposed to 2.5% or 3%, which is what the market expected a -- the market expects, so a 10-year at 2.87 is probably perfectly positioned, not positioned for 2.5%. jonathan: how does that resonate with you? r.j.: we are more on the bearish side. the fed is in an upward trajectory, the inflation risks are fueled by weaker dollar and rising commodity prices. i think we are heading higher than what he suggested. would not be shocked if we break three on 10, it would be hard to do. but we think as the year unfolds, we will end up in the low three range. we are not more extreme more bearish than that. jonathan: to get outside of the argument as to whether we raked -- whether we will -- whether we break this magic 3% on u.s. tenure, is it safe to say the consensus at the moment is we might be nearly top end of the range on a 10 year yield? guy: absolutely. the short-term trading range we're looking at,

u.s. treasuries is something that is actively being somedered, if not now, at point? hit by that? >> it is probably china's last attempt. i would not expected to be something deployed. on the other hand, i would not put it past them to talk about that. there has already been whispering from the chinese side that they know this is an option they have should they be pushed. and that is the point. if we keep pushing china, and clearly threaten to do damage to their economy, to their growth outlook, the chinese will view this as an act of economic war and respond in kind. they are again being judicious and measured in early responses, but the more they get pushed, i think the more we can expect an increasingly stronger response. >> final question on how this may impact the fed. does it change of calculus in terms of the fed and the speed at which it tightens? >> i am reasonably confident that the fed does a lot of contingency planning for a variety of different possibilities, but a trade war is probably not high on their list. i think they are hard at work right now craft

u.s. treasury secretary is said to be weighing a trip to beijing to pursue the negotiations. china says it is open to talks despite lashing out at what they called u.s. economic intimidation. >> trade has been the big issue for the markets in big days. backroom talks between china and the u.s. seems to be encouraging investors today. traders are trading up. wall street had slumps late last week. we are expecting american shares at this stage to open up in positive territory. >> some more tough questions were facebook -- for facebook. >> it had beenen collecting data from android mobile users. a spokesperson for facebook says that information only came from users who had opted in to share it and had never sold or shared on to third parties. this comes at a difficult time for facebooook and the company s trying to dig its waway out of e data harvesting scandal. the social network to out full-page advertisements in nine british and american newspapers over the weekend apologizing to its users. mark zuckerberg is coming under increasing pressure to testify to u.s. lawmakers. let's

u.s. treasury secretary steve minucci and u.s. trade representative robert bly hisor topics they'll cover include manufacturing and financial services u.s. president donald trump it recently announced cherubs of up to sixty billion dollars in chinese imports the chinese have said they won't be bullied. the mummy found they did misjudge the situation and underestimate china's determination and capacity for defending its legitimate interests they also underestimate the price the u.s. has to pay for its reckless behavior. u.s. business leaders in china are warning that a full scale trade war would not benefit either side. the response from our members has been one of concern that these actions could be to a trade war which is something that nobody wants to see at the same time it's important to recognize that there has been a growing sense of frustration within the business community about the lack of progress on market access openings in china is increasing use of industrial policies minucci in in light highs are sent to you letter

u.s. treasury bonds the u.s. has been flooding the global economy for decades now in dollars and the agreement is ok we'll keep doing that long as you folks keep recycling that money and bringing it back to the u.s. so as long as it works you can keep cutting taxes neighborly thank you for increasing war spending so you know let's go ahead and give ourselves tax cuts and you know let's build our military even even more the. that is because the us is obviously threatening them towards china and asia and that's going to cost a lot more in terms of naval and air force. crippling development and you know that's the future not they're looking at. washington can be controversial at the best of times but add politics to the mix and someone's going to get upset as happened recently in poland. in a separate case poland's jewish association has accused a catholic priest of spreading hate after he claimed on a t.v. show that jews have their own version of truth. the truth corresponds to who the jews truth mean something tha

u.s. treasury's don't look like a safe haven.n: lori, thank you, you will stay with us alongside henry peabody and matt toms. let's check where markets have been throughout the week. this is what it looks like in the united states. treasury yields, believe it or not, unchanged throughout the whole week. a slight bit coming into 30 year. if are down three basis points. -- we are down three basis points. still ahead on this program, the final spread of the week ahead featuring rate decisions from the ecb and the boj and coming up this weekend, the italian election. this is "bloomberg real yield." ♪ ♪ i'm jonathan ferro. this is "bloomberg real yield," and is time for the final spread. coming up in the next week, we have a pair of rate decisions coming from the european central bank and the bank of japan. we have the beginning of the national people's congress annual meeting in china, the u.s. jobs report, and the italian election. still with me, henry peabody, matt toms, and lori heinel. lori, why are we so calm about the italian e