it is not only ubs that has done this. ubs has done it better than others, to be honest.ructure, they have shrunk fixed income and paid attention to the equities business which is a bigger strength, and they are doing much better. it is not easy to stop because there needs to be more cost-cutting and to make money and they have new bosses in the trading division and they will think of ways to do it better. guy: the business model at ubs is different. is there to serve the asset management side of the business. it is there as a service to clients. very different than the structure other banks have. it has a return on equity of around 10%, around half what rest of the business generates. considering this is a service, how much more can they cut to eat into that. does it need to generate the same r.o.e. at the other parts of the business? yalman: the success ubs has had in restructuring has been to focus more on the wealth management side. wealth management is very important for swiss banks. to do suisse is trying that more after it saw that ubs did it better. arel, ubs and

we are talking about these huge job cuts at ubs. about that and the fact that it's not the only bank, right? we are talking job cuts across the industry. that's right. if you work in banking, it might be the biggest story you are worried about for all of this year so far. citigroup, we reported, is considering hundreds of job cuts. everybody knows deutsche bank is getting out of the equities trading business altogether. an 18,000 job production. other banks in europe have made as well.ents of cuts for ubs specifically, as they tried to make their investment bank people work more closely with their wealth management group, they may be considering these job cuts and may be using them as a way to get a little more revenue out of their richest customers, their most wealthy clients. paul: thanks for joining us. says despiteeo seeing a slowdown in china, he is not worried about demand for steel and iron or. he spoke to bloomberg in new york. >> i think srs china is concerned, it is very important for us. what we see in practical terms a v

ubs has declined to comment. what more you tell us?ll, deutsche bank is also declining to comment on that story from the "wall street journal. my sources have confirmed that there were talks happening in june about potentially tying up the investment banking unit. it kind of also makes sense because ubs is very strong in equities, deutsche bank has been brought up the strongest banks in fixed trading, fixed income and currency and rates they have weaknesses there especially if you look at the last years, but still they're a big name in that business. and to combine both would make actually an investment bank giant. but still there have been disagreements over critical questions couldn't be solved so no tieup close to the horizon, close on the horizon for ubs and deutsche bank here but also the asset management business was very close to tying up but then in the end they couldn't come to a decision of who is controlling the whole thing and deutsche bank wanted to have the control over a combined asset manager which didn't go down to the

manus: ubs makes some big changes.ker turns as a key player in wealth management's business. ♪ nejra: welcome to "bloomberg daybreak: europe." some market watchers say that perhaps stephen mnuchin was trying to steepen the curve a little bit. ultra long bonds under serious consideration. the gravitational pull on the long end. manus: i love that phrase, the gravitational pull. it does not last long. navarro says you are all too excited about trade. it is trade versus white house angst withthe fed -- the fed. etingd trump twe about that last night, the fed. nejra: we have had the absence of trade headlines in terms of any progress. equity markets have been struggling for direction all week on that. yesterday, we saw some green on the screen for the s&p 500. conversely, we saw some weakness on the stoxx 600. across europe, you see a weaker print on ftse 100, dax, and cac 40 futures. stepped -- s&p 500, dow futures all off. it fits with the general risk on picture if you look at the bonds as well. manus: there is no doubt

ubs, you were saying?n: i think what this story shows you is as much as markets are focused on the trade war and the economic damage, this is a conflict that goes way beyond economics. it is technology, national security, and the like. it is just growing. this is going to last beyond president trump. these are the two largest economies in the world that have very different ways of doing things, and it is inevitable. david: two of the largest economies in the world, and they are linked in which we can't understand. what we report here is largely on the surface. says, whatent trump liu he says, things like that. "lix: i think it was "the ft talking about corporate response ability in china, worried that companies are going to be scrutinized more intensely because they are u.s. companies, and they are worried about that. david: there was a report that the chinese government would really be going after pwc come the auditing company, because some of their employees might have been supporting protesters in hong

still with us is ubs global head of strategy bhanu baweja. is the thinking argentina and latin america more argentina,rticularly which shifted to more market friendly policies and now looks to be shifting back? bhanu: not for lack of trying, but this is a game changer. the fact that the population says this is too much austerity and weakness, this is too high inflation to take, and therefore they are going back to the other end of the political spectrum, is worrying. i think the more worrying thing for the markets right now is we do not really know the details of what the opposition candidate intends. i think if there is any mitigating circumstance, it is that this is quite different from 2000, 2001. valuever -- the recovery in the bonds should be much better, which is why think there is some sort of a recovery in argentine assets right now, modest recovery. i am also reasonably sure that this will not become a systemic problem across emerging markets. not a lot of people were in there, so there will not be systemic selling. also, as the peso

what are you doing at ubs right now? michael: i agree with you, we have a lot of volatility markets because of political uncertainty, policy uncertainty. when we look at the fundamentals, they are still quite strong. we have slower growth, but good growth. we are trying to help investors stay focused on the long, maintain equity exposure. that's where the value is right now. they need to hold fixed income, but with a 10 year treasury at 1.6%, you can only have so much. vonnie: did you make that decision after the 50 basis point drop in u.s. yields, or has this been your position all along? michael: we've been overweight equities for quite a long time, but the drop in rates certainly makes it higher -- certainly mix it harder to hold fixed income. one thing we've been doing in portfolios is overweighting fixed income in the case that we have an economic downturn. that has worked really well. it will work forever. noter-term, it is simply going to cut it in terms of what investors need out of a portfolio. guy: i want to co

anna titareva, ubs european economist. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ guy: from london, i'm guy johnson. from new york, i'm vonnie quinn. this is the european close on "bloomberg markets." we had a big turnaround in the last half-hour. we are off our lows. nevertheless, the nasdaq is still down 6/10 of 1%, the s&p down one quarter of 1%, and the dow jones down 10 points right now. most of the stocks in the dow went negative, in fact, right around the 2-10 spread turned negative. we are seeing some of those eke out gains. verizon, nike, and the best performer, boeing. the twos-tens spread has turned positive once again. guy: it is a thursday in august, with powell speaking tomorrow. volume is really, really like. stoxx 600 down by about half of 1%. the british pound trading your session highs. more positive sentiment, apparently the doors not completely be enclosed in boris johnson's face as he tours europe. italian bonds bouncing around today. not much movement. deadline ofecting a the extension -- they are expecting an extension of the deadline for talks for a coalition. this is bloombe

still with us is mark haefele of ubs management.nishing day in argentine markets following the results of the weekend. declines. had in the u.s.onfident dollar now? mark: we still see it as the source of kerry. i think if the -- the source ofcarry. i think if you step back, that is the theme we see most in this spirit of volatility. to support what is a weaker economic growth picture, that andks to looking for carry looking for yield in this market. that very often points them toward the emerging markets, where they are finding yield and in a basket of em fx, in those bonds you talked about. nejra: david: how safe -- david: how safe is it to invest in dollar-denominated em debt now? as more people have it on their balance sheet, they are at risk. mark: the specific bonds we are , we think it would certainly be one of the things they would look to payback first to maintain borrowing in global markets, even if we had a shock scenario, so we think it is relatively safe in that regard. of ubsmark haefele wealth management stays with us.

it represents about 5% of the sector sales according to ubs.ales have fallen since their peak in 2013 , and continued disruption in hong kong could continue this trend. there have been predicted double-digit inclines in sales for the same period 2018. the u.s. have china -- the u.s./china trade war hurting the market at home and abroad. we are looking at the global luxury goods index in white here. you can see that in the last few ce ofs, underperforman luxury goods has tended to escalate. with no resolution of hong kong issues or the trade war inside at the moment. vonnie: thank you for that. lvmh there. still ahead, argentina assets getting battered after voters turn on president macri. 31%.eso weaker i almost we will take up -- weaker by almost 31%. we will take a look, next. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ guy: from london, i'm guy johnson. vonnie: in new york, this is vonnie quinn. this is "bloomberg markets." guy: saudi aramco is buying a 20% stake in the refining and india'ss business of reliance. discussed it with bloomberg earlier today. the go

he is chief investment officer at ubs global management americas. mike, welcome. have you here. >> thanks. >> you do not see a recession coming. you think the u.s. can avoid a recession, but you are paring back some of your equity positions? >> we are.on again, we see a recession, at least not over the course of loe next six to twelve months. certainly thel economy has decelerated, but you balance it ket with strong labor m conditions in the u.s. and a healthy consumer sector as well. the risk of recession are still fairly lown our estimate. that deent mean we don't want to pare our risks back a bit because of the uncertainty around trade. we have taken some of our risk exposure with regard to equity markets.an >> mike, i to ask you about something that happened today. it is only the second time it has happened in the last 40-plu years, and that is the yield on the 30-yearur tre bond dipped below the yield of the s&p 500 index. now, what we are looking a chart that takes us back to the late '70s, and you see that the sprea between the two has years, andwing for no

we thi t thatt's going to make a compelling investment as well. >> michael laser with ubs.ou again. >> thank you very muou. >> you bet. thanks. >>> abercrombie a fitch feels the pain of the china trade tensions ahat's where we begin tonight's focus with the apparel company reporting a decline in revenue and lowering full-year forecast. to protect from new, tarif abercrombie is looking to cut the amount ofoods sourced from china. shares slid from 14% todayo 14.45. it was all around good news for burlington. that apparel retailer topped wall street earnings and retail estimates. burlington says it has not beee y affected by tariffs because only 6% of total ses are from imported goods. >> -- improve thath company w new ventures which includes the acquisition ofkumoto gup and itsndxpansion of the canadianai the shoe company. 5. was up 15% today to 15.50. after thelt ball beauty reported weaker than expected earnings in revenue. the company lowered its full-year outlook citing broadn head in the u.s. cosmetics industry right now. shares dropped in initial after hoays trading t i

ubs. shakeup, there are further shakeups to come. >> it does feel like the summer of gloom, especially in europe. caroline: nicely put. >> the last few months, you have at barclaysjob cuts and deutsche bank and others. we don't know for certain if there will be job cuts as part of the restructuring. we do know it has been a year since ubs has had new investment banking heads. they are taking a broad look at their strategy trying to figure out what they could change. it could be management changes. there could be a bunch of job cuts. it is a volatile unit. it is not the same as dealing with wealth management where you can rely on a steady stream of fees. caroline: always great to get your take. thank you. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ on thee: a quick check latest business flash headlines. they are preparing to settle 18,000 lawsuits. bloomberg has learned the company is willing to pay up to eight alien dollars -- $8 billion. it has lost value since it acquired monsanto. veggie burger

ubs is more cautious on that. you don't think it will happen?e: i think it is highly unpredictable. i don't think a no deal brexit is the aim, but we could get there. if you don't get what you want, you have to go through with it. i think there is a possibility of it happening. i think there is also on elements of this is boris johnson sort of starting his negotiations. you have got to start again approaching some of the old ground and sticking points, which is the irish backstop. perhaps you start with the extreme view of let's just take it out so you end up compromising on something that could get more support. francine: the problem is if he restarts negotiations, to almost proved to the citizens you have done your due diligence. it does not make sense from a timeline point of view. sonja: absolutely. we have always been up against a deadline. the seriousness of whether he wants to negotiate, it seems he is simply blaming the eu for not engaging with him rather than wffering a serious way of ho they could find a middle ground. i still believe

ubs is recommending that investors trim positions and go underweight equities >> well, i mean, goingerweight equities is a risky bet at this stage because when you see particularly in north america that interest rates could come further down if the economy takes a hit, the interest rates could come further down and what we do know is that in the early stages typically of these economic down swings when interest rates come down, the equity market does reasonably well because of course the discount function goes down and therefore the multipliers can still remain relatively elevated and i think that's what we're seeing currently. so i think my recommendation currently is to at the very least have a proportion in still relatively low yielding bond markets i'm afraid. >> okay. we'll take that under advisement thank you for joining us this morning. >> thank you for having me. >> well, still on deck, the ingredients may be fresh but the financials not so much details behind papa johns shake upcoming up next. >> booking your next flight via text message is not as crazy as it sounds at least

fundamental strategy at ubs still with us. things talked about was demand for equity remains low. where do you see the equity story heading? as we look at trade wars escalating, do you think that is fully reflected in equity markets? >> two things. the first is a short-term thing. in the short-term, you have a very negative environment from all of the shocks, but you have a huge offset, central-bank easing. right, andgets it that is a big if, any kind of will offer opportunities for stock pickers to get back in the game, and vice versa. if the fed does not get it right, financial conditions will force their hand. the other thing is that if you assume we are in an environment of low growth is not a recession , this is not an environment where you sell stocks. it is an environment where they become hugely bifurcated. they are being negatively impacted by the longer yields and there are stocks that offer a steady dividend with a level of growth that is predictable where's the decline in the discount factor just makes them pricele

the idea was to merge them so that ubs' equities division could shine.s saying, why wouldn't you just take the talent? obviously deutsche bank is getting rid of most of its equity trading division at this point, so it sort of shows how desperate they were, that they were willing to talk to everybody and anybody. whether this happens is unlikely. alix: let's talk about saudi aramco, the biggest ipo in history. everybody wants a how part of it. so now it is the secondaries we have to be into? have lazard.ready if aramco does get what it wants, one hundred billion dollars in proceeds, potentially to trillion dollar valuation, it would be a big coup for a lot of these banks. there was a story that banks were not sure whether it was worth the pain. i love that this is so big that you have to have some banks to underwriting, and supervise the other banks. i love when you called it the hunger games. can you imagine if you are jp morgan or morgan stanley and you are not on this ipo? talk about the pain if they yank it away once again. got to try to get your name

internet para acondiconamiento de cocheras y patisos para que unas 180 mil viviendas califiquen para la ubla casa principal. >>e> sto ayudaría a dueñs de vivienda darles un ingreso extar. >>> y el uso de marihuana podría ser permitiod en las escuelas públicas y permitir que padres de familia vayan a los centros de estudsión para admnistrar la marihuana a sus hijos. >>> estudiantes del distrito escolar de san josé reciieron sus identificaciones escolares pero ahora tienen un número de teléfono que les podría salvar la vida, cuéntanos . >>> te acuedas de la ley que decía que atrás debía estar un número telefónico? pues es un teléfono de ayuda para la prevención y se dio a conocer un dato bien tristes que dicen que la segundo causa de muerte en niños es el suicidio . >>> este número tienen los estudiantes de toda california y llevan este número que es el de la línea de suicidio para que llamen si tienen un acriss . >>> es importante porque los niños cuando necesitas ayuda, teins un lugar para hablar. >>> acá los papás están de cerdo que este recurso se haya puesto a su alcance. >>> es bueno p

now she is joining the executive committee at ubs. she is in the u.s..e you join the executive committee is a good thing. she is in a business that they are looking to expand. potential deals in that business, more hiring in that business. aarlet: she's in charge of business that is a priority. love hearing that. story on the radar for those of us in new york is a train in gotham. there has been an exodus of people leaving the new york city metro area. 277 people move out every single day. that's the biggest out of all of the cities in the u.s.. u.s. in the romaine: and i still can't get on the highway. scarlet: los angeles is number two. chicago is number three. joe: who would leave l.a.? scarlet: anyone who hates traffic. places where home prices and taxes are lower. cost of living, quality of life. scarlet: joe is pondering l.a.. before we get to that, we'll get you back to some breaking news. this is the yes network, the regional sports network that progress the x games in new york. it's being bought by a consortium led by sinclair. this is bloomberg

this is something we seen ubs in recent weeks also do this.k of america, they have a huge high network division also. this could create a way for them to capitalize on that. havee way, we already goldman sachs, morgan stanley, jp morgan that have been thinking about this for a while. they are ahead of them in this game now. david: do they have any advantage besides trying to hire a lot of people? sonali: it's getting really competitive, but a good thing for bank of america and everybody else is that lets companies are going public, more people want to deal in the private sector, and private equity has record amounts of money right now. if i was bank of america, i'd be a little more worried about goldman sachs right now, which has gone full steam to not only capture private equity deals, but smaller equity firms all across america. david: third story, big news out of blackstone today. bennett goodman not quite leaving, but essentially leaving come of the last of the gs out so team.the g sonali: you got to wonder if they are going to change the

he gives the example of ubs in switzerland. is obviously a very desirable place to store vast amounts of wealth. so if you want that, there's limited capacity to pay out interest rates. that maybe why you're seeing ubs start to charge customers to house their wealth. alix: it was pretty fascinating, i have to say. wrapping it up with something that bothered me, but didn't surprise me, basically some research shows there is better birth control out there for women that doesn't involve any kind of hormone therapy, but it is not getting produced because it is just not profitable. brooke: because when you think about gene therapy that you can charge $2000 for a single dosage or some of the blockbuster drugs like humira, birth control doesn't really register on that level, which is depressing. it make you think about what else is out there we could be solving that pharmaceutical companies aren't investing in right now. alix: ok. silvia killingsworth and brooke sutherland, thank you for being here. you can read all of these in the la

ubs being pushed to charge more for wealthy clients.clients for holding more than $500,000 in euro accounts. previously the threshold was twice as much. banks are preparing for that long stint of low rates to continue. watch the snb potentially cutting rates very soon. 's outflows ,allooning in the quarter reducing engine revenue and stockpiling for a new deal brexit. up next, we carry on the european market coverage. that is next. this is bloomberg. ♪ hey! i'm bill slowsky jr., i live on my own now! i've got xfinity, because i like to live life in the fast lane. unlike my parents. you rambling about xfinity again? you're so cute when you get excited... anyways... i've got their app right here, i can troubleshoot. i can schedule a time for them to call me back, it's great! you have our number programmed in? ya i don't even know your phone anymore... excuse me?! what? i don't know your phone number. aw well. he doesn't know our phone number! you have our fax number, obviously... today's xfinity service. simple. easy. awesome. i'll pass.

. >> meanwhile, the bank ubs estimates the education services market is worth $6 trillion and is seto grow by high single digits thanks to a growing middle class and emerging markets and increased urbanization one of the things that struck out to me is that education has been the largest spending item by china's government since 2010 who would have thought they were spending so much on education here is it fair to say the biggest opportunities in the education space are from emerging market economies particularly lead by china? >> you're definitely on to something and the long-term theme that we're looking at involves an increasing transition of workers from lower skilled jobs into higher skilled jobs which requires education. lower class individuals moving to the middle class means that a greater and greater supply of resources and funding needs to go into the area in 2009, 1.9 billion people were in the middle class and that is supposed to go to 5 billion in 2030 and just the primary school education jump required for that middle class segment is enormous of course secondary educat

we have seen credit suisse and ubs change their business, with an enormous number of redundancies. left in the world of investment banking is barclays, and thatis investment banking is barclays, and that is in the united states of america. so these figures the financial times raises are com pletely financial times raises are completely accurate, and more importantly, the emphasis they put on the banking climate darkening is spot on. what does that mean for the uk economy? that was always seen as the engine of growth but of the money we are making in the uk.” think the one thing about the united kingdom, forget brexit, is that it is like new york and tokyo, a major centre where you have the best accountants, the best lawyers, you have the centre of business activity, infrastructure that has been there for 70 years. it is the peripheral areas, in my humble opinion, which will be more damage than everywhere else. will london be affected ? than everywhere else. will london be affected? 0f than everywhere else. will london be affected? of course it will. but i am not negative on london

joining us to discuss the latest is sherry paul, ubs senior portfolio manager.the wealth management side of things, so clearly clients are going to be watching these hairtrigger moves. the market was way down in hong kong, and suddenly we get this surge on the idea tariffs might be delayed. how do you deal with that? sherry: that's a really good question. you are right, the clients are concerned. they look at this policy volatility with a lot of concern. my immediate advice to them is to resist the urge to allow political and policy volatility and chaos to create portfolio chaos. there are some very basic print suppose you can use to immunize yourself and your own investing behavior, as well as your portfolio. number one, focusing on data, number two, being politically aware, but investing in that data, and number three, realizing that to gain some acceptance, this is now the environment we are in. use it to your advantage. vonnie: that said, you can't ignore the fact that the two- ten spread saw two basis points today. does that because you to think maybe we wi

so this is an interesting note from the ubs evidence lab.ys laugh about that, on disney >> why what's evidence lab? >> they have a little stamp on their things, evidence lab we love them but they did do a survey i have absolutely no idea to the statistical validity of said survey but it's interesting because it's focused on an area that we're certainly focused on, which is what will be the success rate of disney's direct consumer offering, disney plus, and what conceivably will it mean for the other entrants in the field. netflix, of course, chief amongst them others as well, such as amazon not to mention entrants that have not yet made their way in, such as hbo max. they surveyed 1,000 people 79% of them said they'd heard of disney plus. 63% either were very or somewhat aware. 43% of respondents said they were likely to subscribe to disney plus. the point ubs is making this morning from their potentially insignificant survey, no idea, is nonetheless that it's above what disney had targeted over the next few years as what they thought the av

so for those investors who are thinking of buying on this dip, ubs put out this warning. here's the quote. today's backdrop with pmis, the purchasing managers index, in the low 50s and rates arguing for further declines, often results in the buying the dip being a losing proposition. i'm not sure warren buffett would agree with that, but if you bought the s&p 500 last monday, not two days ago but a week ago monday, the worst day of 2019 up until today, you bought it after the close at 2,844, you are still up a little here because the s&p right now is at 2,856. just how cautious or gutsy should you be about buying on the lows? we bring in our traders at the floor show. i know you are busy, i know you have to rush back to your trading stations and get going with your clients but thank you for jumping in front of the cameras for a few seconds here. john, give me a sense of what investors should be doing. they bought at the s&p a week ago, you are still up. you see this as a buying opportunity or should investors heed ubs's advice? >> two things. you aren't always going to bu

>>taking the ubs. on taking their the deck still on moving this. he stands.ricane flossie didn't hit him, but it did push him off course i dusee wolf. loaded dow the ocean defender weighed more than a 1000 pounds seized if equal or moving the sky, no bald. we spent his fallen pieces of you out there was breathtaking but he did encounter floating plastics next and discarded live with this. also has done other extreme adventures every year. >>i seeing all day what time. but i do next, yeah. i love the. >>this kind of life he once wrote across the atlantic ocean. now he's conquered the pacific. jim mendoza hawaii news now. now my lower back when i no way thank you so joyful you say like that look on his face. >>also all my goodness you would develop the parade, he bragged lit little arms of the day and now as the any for paper gym membership. that's right just have a look cross of us at exact righlot so shirt own up and i have to love the shirt, i wear that. it's going to be as hot as to why though this way wanted 80's and 90's, yeah, and tomorrow it's going to

ubs is making big changes.isit suisse creditg the firm -- an ex- suisse banker is joining the firm. joining us is one of our bloomberg reporters. run us through the changes at the top. >> the changes at the top of the isncipal is that iqbal jhan finally joining after weeks and months of speculation, taking over the wealth management business, the largest in the world. the caveat is that he is only the cohead, he will lead with tom naratil, who is leading the u.s. business. then you have the ceo at the adaptive management, the bank is renewing strategic options for it. also, there is also another lady, suni harford. and there are other potential ceo successors. three big changes in the executive board. people have been long waiting for it. at the beginning of the year, we wrote a story that ubs is intensifying succession planning and you have to see that in this context. this is part of the bank's succession plans and iqbal khan is a top candidate. matt: is this part of the ceo lham, oron plan for are there a nu

there is a new board member coming in, a well-known former ubs banker who has the background.yis the ceo of a bank owned the qataris who also own a stake in deutsche bank. he would not be able to succeed achleitner for the chairmanship. the new chair would need to be someone who speaks german, has a strong banking background, and has a connection at a level that achleitner has. those are the qualifications that are looking for. matt: how do savings turnaround look like right now? deutsche bank is not likely to get back to its former glory, the size it was when paul achleitner took over the chairmanship. >> that is absolutely true. i do not think -- when he , he washis term in 2012 to see deutsche bank grow as one of the global leading investment banks. that dream is over and it is cutting dramatically. it is one of the biggest restructuring program ever. the hope is to get the price back up and on a footing that shows he can lead a bank that is seen as stable, and not as fragile. matt: thank you very much, fantastic story there. we are minutes away from the open, nine minutes

>>taking the ubs. on taking their the deck still on moving this. he stands. >>hurricane flossie didn't hit him, but it did push him off course nearing one week i watched to the north with an audit. i see wolf. floated down the ocean defender weighed more than a 1000 pounds seized if equal or moving the sky, no bald. we spent his a lot of pieces of you outthere was breathtaking but he did encounter floating plastics next and discarded live with this. we go are also has done other extreme adventures every year. >>i seeing all day what time. but i do next, yeah. i love this kind of life he once wrote across the atlantic ocean. >>now he's conquered the pacific. how one time a day 5 k. >>28 was a sushi every day with him, i'm guessing out there right will can really needs thing the that's a that's quite the pounds i can think of easier ways to coming soon, i'm sure that you know hey guys we're tracking some tropical weather. he's lucky that run into this one out there talking about flossie but we've got one now in the atlantic ocean. this one look at little more s

ubs is staying long on gold. thanks.n the next hour of daybreak asia, the hong kong property market faces serious threats. we will discuss in a moment. ♪ from the couldn't be prouders to the wait did we just win-ners. everyone uses their phone differently. that's why xfinity mobile let's you design your own data. now you can share it between lines. mix with unlimited, and switch it up at anytime so you only pay for what you need. it's a different kind of wireless network designed to save you money. save up to $400 a year on your wireless bill. plus get $250 back when you buy a new samsung note. click, call or visit a store today. paul: asia's major markets are about to open for trade. shery: i am shery ahn. silly not: welcome to "daybreak: asia." paul: our top stories this tuesday, asia-pacific markets said to gain as the trade narrative turns more hopeful. futures are higher in sydney. beijing reports from say they are not calling. exports slipped for a ninth straight month in july. markets want injury at -- in korea, j

shery: thank you so much, joining us from ubs. of that conversation, tv is your function. you can catch up on past interviews, also, watch us live, dive into any securities or bloomberg functions we talk about. become part of the conversation by sending us instant messages. this is for bloomberg subscribers only. check it out at tv . this is bloomberg. ♪ let's get a quick check of the latest business flash headlines. in late trade after second-quarter earnings fell short of estimates. sales missed forecasts. it came at $5.4 billion. bookings rose almost one third in the second quarter as they generated $2.9 billion in adjusted revenue. but arise from last year, low of $3 billion that they had expected. broadcom has clinched a deal to provide -- have $10.7 billion in cash, adding software to keep hackers auto corporate systems. in deal is expected to close their fiscal fourth-quarter that ends in january, and comes less than a month after discussions fell apart over disagreements of the price. if you fancy yourself as a hi

strongest signal yet to the markets of recession inverlt verting to the worst levels since 2007 here is ubsl wealth management head of trading strategies ian, the move in bond yields, at this point what's driving it because some of the fundamental data later, consumer confidence yesterday has been a little better and yet we continue to see these new lows on treasury yields. >> frankly there seems to be a race to zero in the global sovereign debt market, whether it's driven by the fed or the ecb or what's going on in japan. the fact of the matter is u.s. treasuries yielding even now north of 2% end up being a huge buying opportunity, and that's what we saw in the long bond, and that's why there's been this consistent bid for ten and 30-year yields at this range. >> and that's why the president is so upset this morning just tweeting out that our fed is not mentally keeping up with other central banks, and that they're all giddy over the low rates that they have there, and we just -- we don't. >> yeah, there also seems to be a bit of a circular argument involved here, and that is has powell ac

behip berg of levi they've brought their sourcing into the low single digits ubs has this note.ld be best positioned, nike, lulu, vfc? and who could be most challenged gap, kohl's, macy's, right makes sense. >> yes, and if you think about, it's so interesting, too i've also heard a conflicting idea about a retailer like a macy's or a kohl's they're a retailer that sell a bunch of brands. if they sell under armour or nike, there's two players involved in seeing those higher costs. it's under armour sees the higher costs and they sell it into kohl's. so maybe they split that pain and the player doesn't see it as clearly when you have two players that can absorb that cost they have to look at this on a category-by-category, and product-by-product basis and a lot of these retailers have said, we're not going to raise pricesnsitive, very price elastic and consumers will notice that price change and not buy, maybe that's not the product to me that increase on. >> gopro managed to move production to mexico they're out with a statement saying that u.s.-bound cameras, they expect to be i

. >> well, moving on, a new report from ubs says 43% of u.s. consumers that surveyed planned to subscribe to disney plus. that's more than disney itself has predicted. disney has forecast somewhere between 20 and 30% of broadband households will be subscribers more than half of those who would sign up are telling ubs they'd cut at least one other service. pay tv being the first service they canceled with other streaming services closely behind we talked about netflix's under foermance this year. you have to think they're worried. it's a reminder the pie doesn't keep growing forever >> you have to think they're worried. the most interesting thing about this was that we know disney plus is going to be very popular. they're saying 20 to 30 million in the u.s 60 to 90 million overseas. who are the losers what's interesting about this is only 13% of respondents said they'd have three or more streaming services so three is the number three is going to be the number of how many of these services can people have? three will be the number amazon probabl

ubs andtuart kaiser of gene tannuzzo, thank you both for being with us. on what is making headlines outside the business world with viviana hurtado. good morning. viviana: kim jong-un says north korea's latest missile tests are a warning to the u.s. he is trying to pressure the u.s. to end joint military exercises with south korea. donald trump's new defense secretary says the drills are needed to maintain readiness. president trump likely to face a cool reception when he tries to console residents of el paso, texas, and dayton, ohio. the president will pay tribute to first responders in both cities after mass shootings. complicated by the president anti-immigrant rhetoric, plus he opposes gun control measures. in california, a walmart employee has been shut out of the company's network after organizing a protest against the chains gun sales. thomas marshall asking employees to call in sick today and leave work early tomorrow. he wants walmart to quit selling guns and ammo. the el paso shooting taking place in a walmart last week. there was another fatal

banc of america, recession risks are rising, ubs 10 year to one and a quarter. goldman stacks, a global hit from the trade war this is why i use the word reality. reality is setting in you have a lot going on a lot is not seemingly good. >> the longer the trade wars the worse it will be i don't think we will see negative interest rates unless we go into a recession i don't think will you go into a recession. i think the consumer props us up to low single growth on gdp. that's been the case and what's been happening over the last couple of quarters the big question is what does the do to consumer confidence? that's what i'm worried about and watching if you look at the equity premium spread, stocks are very attractive relative to bonds and relative to where interest rates are. so you want to own quality i've said it all year long you want to own a barbell. you don't know at the same time you can't lose your shirt so you have to have some defenses as well dividends are much more attractive at this point >> jimmy, size it up for me. >> if you want a quick fix to th

ubs director of floor operations, art cashin joins us now at post 9, art why the loss of momentum hereell, i think that you got that follow-through because a good chunk of the trading community believes that trump may have learned his lesson on friday i think the market action shook him up a little bit and he realized that, finally, that his tweets are what can be counterproductive. so you see, he's remained remarkably quiet today and it's why you started to get that rally but when you're putting your money on the line, you begin to say, okay, we're up a hundred points do we press him further? wait a minute, he hasn't tweeted anything yet so i think what we're seeing here is a bit of a pullback because of that. i think the viewers want to be very careful to watch them, if they turn negative how they deal when they turn negative will be very important. you see you've got yields coming down again here. so we'll be waiting for the final news out of italy, whether they can form a government or not. but the key thing, obviously, to watch is the president's tweet does he go back to the game?

why is ubs doing this overhaul?rst of all, this is not been one of the strongest divisions. it is something they have got to look for improvement somewhere with. it has been quite volatile, the last quarter was very strong. trading is something hard to bank on. more importantly, the focus has been wealth. what we have been reporting before and what we are hearing now is that it is more about ways to integrate more investment banking is something they would see as a service to attract wealthy clients and put managers together to work on packages for which clients. -- rich clients. matt: how is the investment bank doing compared to other units? said, it's not one of their better units. on the deal side, we are looking at a reconstruction of the upper management. it is more about bigger job cuts possibly. they might be looking at a retreat in trading. it has not been one of the stronger things, but this is not necessarily an indication they are throwing in the towel. anna: meanwhile, management shakeup. hsbc surprising

skids as yields head south just adding to wall street's wall of worry wp goldman sachs, morgan stanley, ubs, bank of america all out with new notes raising the red flag on trade tensions hitting the market so what do we make of all this the sort of, i don't know, stuttering in the markets based on trade >> it's interesting that you're getting some of the macro folks around the street starting to become a little more concerned when in fact i do think that we've seen bond yields telling us something very dramatic 164 we closed on the 10-year dollar holding in. but i think the concern around the rest of the world truly that we're seeing major contraction, a couple of pmis we've had over the last couple of weeks we've got regional fed surveys this week we've got a cpi number in the states which i do think the fed will be closely watching to at least give them something to follow through behind in terms of inflation or lack thereof giving them more cover look, the bond market is concerning when you look at european banks trade down 8 1/2% over seven sessions and you can make an argument the real

former ubs america's chairman and ceo robert wolf is on hand to explain why shareholders may no longer be number one. >>> plus, huawei's big break. silicon valley versus france? and charlie breaks it on ge's latest attempt to fight off very pointed fraud charges. less than an hour to the closing bell. let's start "the claman countdown." liz: we have this breaking news. twitter stock, let's look at it, it is jumping nearly 3% after announcing it's changing its af advertising policies. moments ago, the social media giant announced it will no longer accept advertising from state-controlled news media entities. it says they can still use the product but cannot advertise. much of this is related to what video we just saw and that is the protests out of hong kong. twitter saying it has uncovered nearly 1,000 accounts originating from china looking to sow political discord in hong kong, where of course there have been mass protests about basically china overreaching from the mainland and trying to affect rules and laws in hong kong. part of the coordinated state-backed operation, twitter says

we'll have the very latest and ubs now says the yield could drop to 1.25% by year end. what that could do to markets, to housing, and to more. and nike is joining the subscription business with sneakers for kids. the question is, will parents do it and is it a glimpse of the company's future that's all ahead in rapid fire and there will be mac and cheese but we begin today with today's markets and dom chu has those numbers. >> i'm in for the mac and cheese the markets overall right now, if you take a look at the dow, the s&p 500 and the nasdaq, they're just off their worst levels of the day, but the s&p 500 was down by about 30 points at one point earlier on. i want to call your attention right now to a few sector etfs that we're tracking. real estate on a month-to-date basis, the worst-performing sector one of the worst, industrials and financials i would point out that the worst-performing energy sector, that's the energy sector there, the worst performer, the s&p 500. if you take a look elsewhere in the markets, we're also looking at what's happening with corn prices

anna: let's talk about ubs.ere has been a great deal of market reaction to this one, but still some important names on the move. >> there is a major reshuffle. one of the big names joining is khan.-credit suisse he will take over the wealth management unit. of different forces moving, which is why we might not seek the shares move too much despite this big news. matt: thanks very much for that. dani, sam, and anne-marie, thanks for joining us. you can get the latest stock stories from our equities team by typing first go on your bloomberg terminal. . you can. also check out the mobile up. coming up, the market open. futures are pointing down. safe havens getting a bit. it is a risk off morning. this is bloomberg. ♪ anna: a minute to go until the start of cash equity trading. let's have a look at the markets. the asian session not giving us any clues. futures pointing negative. the asian session was mixed. in the last five minutes, further weakness in the u.k. currency. handle from121 yesterday. yields fall to a

ubs and goldman saying we could see -- italy in focus today with a vote this evening.ield, falling to 3%. we haven't seen this since 2016. ftse futures are down .3%, dax our lowers as well as cac futures. pointing to a lower start in new york. a lot of doom and gloom in these markets. we have the european markets opening now in the city of london. the futures are pointing to a lower start here in europe. we have a lot of data to break down today. u.k. unemployment figures as well as later today, u.s. cpi. the ftse 100 opening to the downside as well as the euro stoxx 50, relatively flat but we are seeing breadth to the downside on markets. we also have a stronger dollar against the euro as well as the swiss franc and british pound. spain has opened a lower .5% and france's cac down .3%. picture, asr expected, a lot more red on the screen, especially when looking at financial staples and consumer discretionary. how luxury to see opens up as well as the likes of hsbc and standard chartered considering hong kong is a key market for their health care has just gone red. it

annabelle: hundreds of jobs could be at risk as ubs is considering an overhaul at an investment bank.cutives are looking to revamp the division that has posted volatile results in the past year. they are looking to boost collaboration between dealmakers and the wealth management arena. now to a bloomberg scoop, the u.s. is holding off on a decision about u.s. companies wanting to work with huawei. beijing said it is holding purchases of u.s. farm goods. the licenses are required after the u.s. added the telecom giant to a security last. to assureailed investors of its growth potential or that it could turn a profit anytime soon. second quarter adjustment sales that fell short of estimates and posted a net loss of $5.2 billion. that is the largest ever for the business. an enterprise division is being bought for $10,000. it is expected to close in the fourth quarter, ending in january. it comes less than a month after discussions over a merger fell apart after discussions overpriced. that is the bloomberg business flash. matt: thanks very much. annabelle with your business flash. let's

sherry poll with ubs financial services and dan nathan a fast money trader and cnbc contributor. sherry, let me start with you. when you have clients whose livelihood depends on bond yields, for example, and those yields are going away, what do you tell them? >> the post important thing for investors is to not make portfolio decisions in moments of political or policy uncertainty, and instead remain focused and close to data, so wrapped to interest rates going lower, clearly a great time to be looking at refinancing and taking care of the other side of your balance sheet clearly not a good thing for savers who are holding cash. probably at rates and at levels that would not benefit their portfolio. >> are you telling people who have that bond exposure be careful, you know, these prices are looking too high now, these yields are looking too low or do you feel comfortable with what you're seeing. >> i feel comfortable with what we're seeing, only because when you're looking at portfolio rebalancing, you really want to take into account that if you have unusual moves in any one of y

are 43 minutes away from the closing bell and the dow's trading higher again up 328 after the break, ubsinterest in disney plus is surging. but that may not be a bad thing for competitors like netflix. >>> we're looking ahead to more earnings after the bell as they gear up for results and the key things to expect coming up in terms of a preview here's a look at how commodities are trading today. ♪ keeping the night interesting, is all about setting the right tone. ♪ lower carbs. lower calories. higher expectations. ♪ the light beer you've been waiting for has arrived. corona premier. should always be working harder. that's why, your cash automatically goes into a money market fund when you open a new account. and fidelity's rate is higher than e-trade's, td ameritrade's, even 10 times more than schwab's. plus only fidelity has zero account fees and zero minimums for retail brokerage and retirement accounts. just another reminder of the value you'll only find at fidelity. open an account today. >>> welcome back to "closing bell." time to get word on the street raymond james downgrading ba

the retailer gave disappointing sales and earnings guidance here so joining us now, ubs retail analystmichael lasser. he has a neutral rating on the stock and his $66 price target also with us, anthony chakumbo anthony, what do you make of the report this morning? it was mixed, there were things to like and things to be disappointed about how do you put it together >> i feel like bill murray's character in "groundhog day. i feel like this happens pretty much every single time best buy reports earnings these were not mixed results, these were good results. comp store sales came in a little bit light of expectations, but against a very difficult year over year comparison epps w eps was up 19% year over year, beat consensus by 9 cents. and the earnings guidance for 2019, they raised it so i just don't really see any reason for the stock to be down 10% today. from my perspective, this is a buying opportunity i am pounding the table with both fists >> okay. that's a pretty strong answer. michael, do you think the stock is down because of the exposure to tariffs i know it could be as high as

ubs has dropped its forecast for the 10 year treasury yield from 2%. this china's tenure sovereign bond yield fells for the first time since 2016. china's many data has not helped sentiment. growth back to the slowest on record. let's look at the drop in long bond yields in the u.s. first. had goldman this week turning neutral on global bond duration after the recent rally. would you be's making this a movie? >> if you look at what is going on globally, growth is slow and slowing. inflation is nonexistent, the momentum in the economy is downwards. after that some jeep -- that some geopolitical risk and there's only one way to go for a bond yields and that is down. spread, do youhe see it actually inverting and what is that mean to you? >> at the moment we still see that the u.s. yield curve is still basically flat. that means that the market is not really pricing in a recession just yet. so u.s. yields are low, but compared to global -- the global yield, u.s. yields still look reasonably attractive from a global perspective they still offer some yield