>> the ubs one is an investment banker. ubs wants to keep a strong investment bank.rast, the one hired by deutsche bank has experienced with abn amro. and has been an executive in insurance. he does have a little bit of investment banking but it is from a wild back. that seems to be a lesser indication of investment banking focus. francine: what exactly do these banks need from these chairs in the next 10 years? a focus on finance? how do these banks grow and gain market share? >> it is about growth for both. in wealth management for ubs and investment banking for deutsche bank. both executives hired for the banks have digital experience and that is something both banks have been highlighting for a long time. all banks are investing a lot of technology in digital. those should be traits that help the banks. ubs has a new ceo. he needs a sparring partner. deutsche bank has had a ceo for a bit longer. we will see how they interact. tom: stephen, thank you in terms of the latest on the changes for the chairman at ubs and deutsche bank. and the importance of digitization

at ubs with their outlook report for 2022.p next, germany passes 100,000 covid-19 deaths with some hotspots under severe pressure. we will get the latest. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> of the ones we were able to survey yesterday, 27% say they did not have any field. 21% said they had one fuel type or another, either petrol or diesel, and 27% said they were fully stocked. scotland seems to be ok. >> when do you feel confident that this will 100% be in the rearview mirror? >> what we are hoping is those people that got fuel over the last few days obviously don't need it again for another few days, and that will give us a chance to start to restock the network, so we are trying to get it back to a reasonable level today and tomorrow and then over the coming weeks because it will take a number of weeks to get it back to the more normal value levels. tom: welcome back to the open, 20 minutes into the european trading day, gains across the market. the u.k. is near the bottom of the list along with spain. gains in italy, .6%. technology o

this forecast from ubs, i keep thinking about it.e've got the likes of credit suisse and others up at around 5k for year end next year. just 6% upside from here from the team over at ubs for the next two years. lisa: michael purves of tallbacken coming out and saying he sees 5% by year end. what we see a slowing growth backdrop? that is a scenario people see. they keep things chugging along. jonathan: eps growth to slow to 13 but 1% from a gain of 51.6% estimated in 2021. matt, you said earlier in the program, who cares about the fed? when it comes to the equity market, it has been a big earnings story. matt: i think the earnings growth figure is really key because as the comps get more difficult, you will not get the same kind of growth we will have from a total lockdown during the pandemic last year, but still, 13.1% isn't bad. compared to 50%, it doesn't sound like too much, but that is really good growth over a year like this. don't forget what kind of gains we have seen because at the end of 2018, we have come a long way already

alix: thank you, bhanu baweja of ubs. good to see you.s is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ alix: it is time now for the bloomberg business flash. ryanair is dropping the listing on the london stock exchange over brexit compliance hassles. the airline has had to limit stock purchases. trading volumes in london have blend old, -- have dwindled. a big change underway in the wants over city of london financial district. they will make them spoke khaki pants and casual jackets. it goes against the old edict, never wear brown in town. guy, will you partake in this? guy: well, i am wearing black shoes right now, sticking to the old adage. when you are in the country, you can do whatever you want, but never wear brown in town used to be that way it went. but the lockdown has changed everything. you don't see that money people walking around in suits anymore. there does seem to be a kind of view you can wear whatever you want as long as you are not seeing clients, that seems to be the narrative. anyway, i still got to wear a suit. i don't see the powers that be he

let's bring in now mark haefele of ubs global wealth management.thought we might have put this behind us. it doesn't look like we are. the european growth story may be at risk here. what do you make of the rise of infections we are starting to see? do you should be concerned? -- do you think investors should be concerned? mark: we don't think it is the primary concern at the moment. what we are seeing along with this is not necessarily the spike in hospitalizations yet. that is what we have to be focused on now that we are in a world of breakthrough infections. for governments to really take significant action to slow the recovery growth we see, that would be the metric we would be focused on. alix: it is great to see you. it has been quite a long time. you guys came out with your 2022 outlook for this year today. i just wanted to tie in your bull case, and that is the s&p hitting 5200. what is your base case for covid if we had that level? mark: we see that in the base case, we see covid tapering off as a problem based on not just the infection ra

luke kawa of ubs, on his beloved manchester united there at the end. tom: does he go this week? do they do it as quickly as the tots? jonathan: it looks like the manager is taking a break. tom: have you ever seen it like this? i'm sorry, folks, i pretend, but i am not really up to speed. new castle, the tots, have you ever seen it like this? jonathan: it happens now and again. manchester united have just never been able to replace -- tom: i love west ham liverpool. was it a proper game? jonathan: that was just beautiful. tom: i was blown away. jonathan: andrew price was thrilled. steve major, too. west ham fans. yields in three basis points. 1.458 4%. heard on radio, seen on tv, this is "bloomberg surveillance." ♪ ritika: with the first word news, i'm rick and cooped up. general electric will split and hit three companies focused on health care, power, and aviation. it is the most sweeping and significant changes for ge since larry culp became ceo back in 2018. the health care division will be the first to be spun off in early 2023. president biden has interviewed fed governor l

let's discuss with ubs financial services managing director.l the volatility lead to the equity rally being overthrown? terri: we don't think so. the inflation numbers could stay elevated for some time. we are seeing inflation crest to a level we have not seen in decades. what we think as the global supply chain issues resolve themselves, corporate earnings continue to be strong. the federal reserve will be very patient and we think the rally can continue. but we think inflation is transitory as well. >> how long will consumers be healthy given that we have seen their sentiment plunging and prices rising? they are not really confident. it was surprising to see the numbers from the university of michigan last week. terri: as a global supply chain issues start to resolve themselves, i think prices will come down and that could certainly spur back the confidence that the consumer has. the consumer is still in relatively good shape and i think the confidence numbers could resume once the supply chain are resolved. >> which sectors do you think stil

i need to talk about numbers out of ubs, price targets for the s&p 500.ting 4650, downside from where we were on the closing level of 1%. this into the price targets going forward. 4850 by year-end 2022, 5k by the end of 2023, not much upside. into 2023 year end, they see 6.4% upside from where we were friday. for financial conditions, slowing growth in the second half of 2022, flattening of eps growth to below trend levels and more notable derating in the back half of next year. it seems to me the inflation point seems to be the back half of next year. lisa: you do have a withdraw of monetary policy. will it affect the market in any material way going into next year? a lot of people say no. if you get a slowdown in growth you get back to a slow growth environment. when do we see that there is no alternative trait? jonathan: a little bit of downside into your and. 4850 year-end 2022, 5k year-end 2023 over at ubs. matt: i also think monetary policy, who cares? now that we have fiscal stimulus that is $5 trillion $10 trillion a year, does monetary policy ma

what's the story at ubs?eeing more coming back since labor day. certainly when you have events like the new variant he's that's going to make some people uncomfortable coming back to the office and we want our employees to take full advantage of what we've done which is to he create a hybrid work environment for them, to be in the office when that makes sense but when they feel they need to spend time for personal, family reasons to take that time from home. maria: yeah, that makes a lot of sense. even though we've got this new arena, we'll see in terms of normalization. it looks beautiful, tom. we'll be watching you ring the opening bell this morning. thank you, sir. >> thanks a lot, maria. great tobe with you. maria: and to you. quick break and then masks for thee but not for me. president biden seen shopping maskless despite the notice on the front door, pretty clear. we will tell you all about it in this morning's hot topic buzz. that's coming up next. growing up in a little red house, on the edge of a fo

that is kiran ganesh of ubs global wealth management. let's get over two the first word news with annabelle droulers in hong kong. annabelle: bloomberg understands that credit suisse is to cut its prime brokerage business further rather than make drastic changes to the wider division. the unit was at the center of the archegos scandal. credit suisse presents its long-awaited strategy review today and sources tell us that job cuts will number less than 500. the u.k. government has backed a move to overturn parliament's rules. this after a member of boris johnson's party was found guilty of paid lobbying. lawmakers voted narrowly in favor of setting up a new committee to examine the ruling against the former minister and determine whether those accused should be given new rights. the probe was flawed and denies wrongdoing. the u.k. has persuaded about 20 nations including the u.s. and canada to pledge to stop funding for fossil fuel. bloomberg understands the one-page statement which china and japan have not signed will be unveiled at the

on the other hand, colm kelleher at ubs is 64 years old. he spent three decades at morgan stanley where he served as cfo and ran the trading business before he became president. he grew up in ireland, county cork and an oxford university graduate. they have both had very extensive experience in the u.s.. shery: do we know when they will get started? nabila: it is not expected to take place until the annual shareholder meetings. for both of those banks, those will be in the spring. both banks have their candidates in place what ahead of time. so they are well prepared for how they want the transition to work out. shery: villa ahmed -- nabila ahmed in sydney with the latest. risks are growing with european virus restrictions. there are questions whether that will impact inflation and demand. let's look at how we are seeing the start of trading this monday warning in asia. some downside. a big week when it comes to eco-data and central-bank action. australian shares lower by .5%. we are watching new zealand where we are seeing a downside of ab

the view from ubs next.omberg. ♪ >> it is difficult to see how, at current levels, multiples expand further. >> i think some of the high valuations may be worth it in some cases. >> i think we come close to double digits. >> corporation fundamentals couldn't be better. >> you are looking at a strong trajectory for growth over the next several years. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: a little bit of risk aversion to end the week. for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on tv and radio. alongside lisa

lisa: nick nelson of ubs, thank you for being with us.e continue to get information from european leadership to try to get a sense of how big of an effect the new covid variant could potentially have on the economies. the prime minister of belgium coming out and saying that the belgian health care system is crumbling. he is referring to the effects of the sick individuals on society, as well as the record number of cases, saying he is more pessimistic than previously forecast. obviously, some really stark language out of the belgian prime minister. anna: absolutely. you talk about your health care system is crumbling, and we knew the belgian government was going to be meeting today to talk about their it was going to be required to have tougher measures, so we will keep watching and see what comes out here. yesterday we heard from the health minister and belgium, saying he's going to be pleading for immediate measures to be introduced in schools and private lives and in industry to try to do something, and it is worth repeating what you s

nadia lovell of ubs. looking for 5000 in the s&p june next year. it is crystal ball type stuff, but it is just about working out. and where we go stateside, this from the fda, authorizing moderna for an adult booster dose of the vaccine in the united states. lisa: it is progress, but the bar is getting moved. this is frustrating for people with the pandemic. initially, we thought the vaccine would be this panacea. now we are thinking maybe not. maybe it is a booster. maybe it is masks. maybe it is distancing, especially as more people do not get vaccinated. can you imagine a mandate here? jonathan: no. i imagine most of our audience cannot imagine that. the booster dose to be given at least six months after the primary dose, in line of what we have heard from pfizer. matt: that fits me at december 27. i will be standing in line for the booster dose in germany, because they will allow boosters for everybody over the age of 18. they are trying to allow you to do as much as you can without mandate being -- mandating you to do much of anything to that

more with ubs asset management later.omberg. ♪ shery: oil markets in focus as wti is under pressure in asian trading, but only after seeing the best day in two weeks in the new york session. investors are awaiting a response from opec-plus on coordinated moves by the u.s. and other countries to tap their stockpiles. david, this release of crude into the markets not having the planned or hoped-for response. david: that is absolutely right. oil had a big jump on tuesday. we have seen and give up some of those gains in early trading in asia this morning, but in general we are seeing a pretty underwhelmed response to those plans from the u.s. and plans from other consuming nations will be looked at later. even though that headline figure was quite large, a big chunk of that crude will have to be returned. that has traders expecting tighter balances in the market further down the line. that should at least keep some of the upward pressure on prices. haidi: opec clearly has a lot of leverage for this market. what are we expecti

. >> up next, ubs paying it forward.g and visa your record label is taking off. but so is your sound engineer. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. indeed instant match instantly delivers quality candidates matching your job description. visit indeed.com/hire (rhythmic electro rock music) (crowd cheering) - bito, bito, bito, bito! - [announcer] bito, the first u.s. bitcoin-linked etf. [energetic music throughout] what's strong with me? i know when i'm ready for a rest day. (crowd cheering) - bito, bito, bito, bito! ...so i can be ready for anything... tomorrow. find out what's strong with you with fitbit sense and daily readiness. this... is the planning effect. this is how it feels to have a dedicated fidelity advisor looking at your full financial picture. this is what it's like to have a comprehensive wealth plan with tax-smart investing strategies designed to help you keep more of what you earn. and set aside more for things like healthcare, or whatever comes down the road. this is "the planning effect" fr

we unpacked the outlook for deals with asia with the ubs head of mergers and acquisitions.d out why samson lo is expecting a jump in regional deals. we also get his outlook on southeast asia's tech space. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> today, the economy is expanding at its fastest pace in many years, appearing the promise of return to maximum employment. >> i'm committed to putting working americans at the center of my work at the federal reserve. this means getting inflation down at a time when people are focused on their jobs and how far their paychecks will go, it means supporting a growing economy that includes everyone. >> we know high inflation takes a toll on families, especially those less able to meet the higher cost of essentials like food, housing, and transportation. we will use our tools to support the economy and strong labor market and prevent higher inflation from becoming entrenched. >> i look forward to working with him in the months and years ahead to build a durable recovery. >> i'm committed to making those decisions with objectivity and integrity based on th

sophie:, over at ubs, they are accounting for those uncertainties. the mainland pursuing their zero covid policy, that will dampen the recovery for consumption. so the bank says they see that that's a drag on investment from the property sector weighing on the outlook. ubs is forecasting 5.4% growth next year, softer than initially anticipated in their baseline scenario. and as we see the global recovery slowing, spending shifting more towards services, ubs calculates china's growth in 2023 will weaken further term 5% as export, man weakens. haslinda: what about the outlook for china's growth question mark what is the expectation for policy support? sophie: citi says more policy support is needed, but with the pboc not signaling big moves this quarter, they have delayed their bet for a 50 basis point cut to the rrr for next quarter, followed by a rate cat in the next three months. citi expects targeted measures around decarbonization will be in focus, case in point, the pboc is monday announcement around the green funding facility. but with significa

granite state bridge desperate forest restoration that the money will now get to we'll speak with former ubs america ceo robert wolf on how important the bill will be to the american economy and to specific stock sectors that could be winners. even as the economy reopens though, slack is doubling down on the work from anywhere movement the ceo and co-founder of the platform, are you ready? 300,000 workplace messages per second, he's here to reveal his company's latest move to cater to those not yet heading back to the office, and one company using a not so secret weapon to drive sales aimed at millennials , why an army of social media micro-influencers is helping aka brands pump up its profits so much so that analysts are already behind on their price targets for the stock. the ceo of aka is here in a fox business exclusive, plus, gee wiz, bitcoin taking a tumble is it xi-jinping or is it twitter chief financial officer pressuring the crypto- verse? wait until you hear what both are doing and have said. all right, let's get to this. you know it's a retail kind of day when the dow is all dres

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according to art basil at ubs annual sales in 2020 were down 22%.rks like this on the market >> our work is sa once in a lifetime picture. >> it's been decades since a self portrait of this caliber has been on the public market. we want people to open their eyes, this is one of the great icons. >> it's frida kahlo's final portrait it shows a teary united states kahlo with her husband embedded above her brow art historians says it represents their fragile marriage. >> she has a powerful gaze she stares at you and cuts through. those three tears rolling down her cheek are the most powerful tears i have seen in the history of art. >> now kahl's place rises high zpler kahlo and self portrait your are synonymous like rem brand. >> this is a landmark for modern art. >> our thanks to joshua johnson for that report. >>> it is a sweet friendsgiving, back this year, jamal hinton went viral after being invited by a grandma thinking it was her son announced he is going back for the sixth thanksgiving in a row. he seened the text, your friend always, also invite

have signed onto the glasgow financial alliance for net zero including heavyweights like switzerland's ubsroup or the u.k.'s hsbc. according to their own numbers, the alliance commands around 130 trillion dollars in assets and the group hopes to shift some of those funds to companies working to reduce global emissions. >> through the new window of finance, such initiatives give finance the confidence to invest come up putting forward the adjustments in our economy, smoothing the transition to net zero and critically driving growth upwards while they force the missions downwards. >> but many wonder whether profit driven capitalism can save the climate. already, the financial alliance has its critics, who find it hard to trust the climate intentions of financial powerhouses as long as they also continue funding fossil fuel projects around the globe. brent: my colleague of dw business joins me here. this glasgow financial alliance for net zero, this is less about political will and more about having enough money to stop climate change. what is behind the skepticism? do people not trust the pe

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celebrating the grand opening of the ubs arena, a sports and entertainment venue in new york.age a cloud communications company >> i knew john in college. bet fence him, that's a mistake. entrepreneurish. >> we will start the day at 2650 given friday's pain, it doesn't seem all that bad. >> no. snowflake a fabulous piece today. snowflake is the greatest stock from btig. that is roaring. i like that. i think frank doing a terrific job. how about this piece -- did you read this piece about amazon able to raise price without problem? >> yes >> what did you think? >> there was also a long take out in the journal about their ability to continue to expand and getting closer and closer to cities with massive facilities we know all the people amazon hired over the last two years, they have also done a lot of building, not to mention building out their districts force in terms of trucks and ships and planes >> i like amazon very much part investment club. most do you remember curious note today deutsche bank, younger investors will like this deutsche bank raises its price target for pe

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it has been a monitored by the united nations by european viewed opinion, and even by it presented ubs of old, the political a parties. despite the fact that at this is that the best in, in terms of a guinea zation in terms of logistics. the best election to be held in iraq in 18 years. but yet the turnout was very low. it was only 41 percent. turn out. so many people in the street. many people say that they do not believe in this electoral process because it is only producing the same old parties, but the same old parties are now having dispute among themselves. those political buses that lost in the election. they have sent the supporters in the streets, blocking the streets, occupying areas near the green zone. now, a very important area that has a headquarters of diplomatic missions, including the u. s. embassy and also government offices that trying to put pressure on the government, put push it on the electra electra commission to change something. and the boat results to change something with that is saying guarantee will not do these thing for the 20th can migrate. i'm sorry to

parents public protests against corruption last year brought an end to form a prime minister boy co boris ubs decade in power. this is the man whose promised to make a difference. he real pepco, one of 2 harvard educated economists whose party continue the change looks set according to preliminary results, to lead an anti corruption of use the fresh face of bulgarian politics, the big hope of brussels. the leaders in brussels who want to see the page turned on corruption here. i think the fresh faith for the beginning voters, because our whole election campaign started with 0 corruption, not less corruption, not decrease corruption, 0 corruption. if we are able to day to be after today to be in position of power, we would love to create such a strong agency that corruption becomes the opposite brand for both those lofty aims. removing the stench of corruption will be an enormous task. a system of oligarchy, patronage and power built up over many years, helping to ensure that bulgaria has remained the e use poorest member vested interests like this won't like it, of course. but the 3rd electio

nicola, the ub summer next time. or. nicola, the pub manager, _ summer next time. or.orry i summer next time. or. nicola, the pub manager, was sorry to | the pub manager, was sorry to see them go. she realised late on friday night that this was going to be a weekend like no other. , .. , other. the drifts were causing most of the — other. the drifts were causing most of the issues _ other. the drifts were causing most of the issues more - other. the drifts were causing most of the issues more than | most of the issues more than anything, ratherthan most of the issues more than anything, rather than just it being the snow, and i thought yes, these people are not going home. we've been doing karaoke, watching movies, playing board games, pub quizzes stop ide schelling out.— games, pub quizzes stop ide schelling out. today, the road out “ust schelling out. today, the road out just about _ schelling out. today, the road outjust about became - schelling out. today, the road | outjust about became possible and a fourth night at the inn was avoided stopping lots of people say

but experts say parties that support president jabar ubs government are the ones that are expected to take the majority of seats and parliament. a self proclaimed champion of democracy is about to consolidate even more power. the president's message to his people is that he is putting his best foot forward and his faith in god and they should be confident putting their faith in him. then bas robbie al jazeera at the presidential residence in biscuit. ah, under anne's velvet voting at a presidential election in the coming hours. the campaign has been mired in controversy about fairs a short. the un has expressed concern after the death of dozens of political candidates. i'll just there as manual repel reports from the on darren capital. ah, it's been a tense election season in honduras, a wave of political violence. his mart what would otherwise be a celebration of civic engagement in the community of kenton, hundreds, thousands recently took to the streets for the funeral of fransisco pucky dog, and then in incumbent mayoral candidate who is killed in broad daylight. more on the campa

manus: the same question for you as for hsbc and ubs. how bullish are you on china? you full bowl on china? -- bull on china? >> the underlining is very strong. there are reasons to be more difficult but if you take a five-year view, our view remains china as well fed and this is going to be with us for a good bit of time. we have business that has been there for many years. we are repositioning ourselves in the region as best as we can do. manus: part of that i know, we touched on it and it is worth addressing it. you are trying to hire 3000 people. hsbc are trying to hire 5000. jamie dimon dialed in to tell his wealth managers, i'm going to look at your flow and up your comp. do you see beginning to hot up in china? how do you describe the bidding war some people are telling me is happening? >> most people looking at wealth action globally would conclude the trend in asia is likely to continue. more people becoming wealthy, more assets to invest. a number of banks are focusing on what they can do there. other banks will not be immune from that. the opportunity with

we were close but you topped us, ubs. i give full credit. great job last night. what a fun night. >> laura: it was fun. it reminded me of 2016 fun. it was actually fun. >> sean: can we duplicate this in 2022 and 2024? laura: it was fun. reminded me of 2016 phone. >> can we duplicate this in 2022-2024? laura: no doubt but some of the italian vote in new jersey got a little sick of the attacks on christopher columbus, nobody talks about that but i have a lot of friends in bergen county and people were killing each other but they really took offense to the attacks on columbus and columbus day. i know it is a small issue but i kept hearing that all day from people. >> the republican candidate was on the show and so close, this is a tsunami election, now republicans have to get their act together, run a platform and mean it and stand behind it. laura: i loved your interview with the new lieutenant governor, she is awesome, she is fantastic, that was a fantastic interview, thank you so much, see you tomorrow. this is ingraham angle from washington, the aftershocks of l

ubs and hsbc dollar positive for 2022.otentially a stronger fed and better growth here in the u.s. that all leading to the 30 year yield above six basis points, buffets 30 moving -- 30 day moving average. that triggered a selloff in the long end of the bond market. yields pushing higher. within the individual equity market, you have utilities, consumer staples, and financials leading the way. obviously financials because of a spike in the long end. i did want to highlight two specific stocks. the real interesting one is arch coal, down 6%, yet coal prices in the u.s. at its highest level in years. coal suppliers are almost sold out for 2022. it just shows what is happening in the energy transition as we are crunching out of coal, but we still need it, and that tension is surfacing everywhere and hoping to underlie some of that inflation narrative we are seeing. guy: it was interesting to hear janet yellen over the weekend talking about the fact that inflation would not come down until the inflation is over. as we said at t

ubs chairman axel labor has issued -- axel weaver has issued one of his strongest warnings yet.ys he is skeptical on digital currencies and says that anonymous payments will not last. amazon is making another attempt to push back against fees charged by payment networks. starting next year, the world's largest on-time retailer -- online retailer were no longer -- taylor will no longer accept payments made by visas issued in the u.k. visa says it is trying to resolve the problem. guy: thank you very much. just to be clear, it is visa credit cards we are seeming to have an issue with. debit cards are fine. so credit cards, problem. debit cards are fine. just clarifying what is happening here. but this feels like a warm up to a much bigger fight on when and where this is going. they have been having issues with visa in singapore, australia, now we are into the u.k. what is next? charlie wells is here from bloomberg news to help us break this down. what do i make of this? this feels like a preliminary skirmish between these two come buddies. -- these two companies. charlie: you are

jonathan: looking at eps growth over at ubs, you mentioned the year end price target. that is just 6% upside from where we were on friday's close. they see eps growth annually slowing to 13.1% from a again this year of an estimated 51.6 percent in 2021. so it is a slow down, but as you indicate, this is not peek profits. it is offered growth. there's a difference between the two. matt: i find that really depressing, that forecasted we are only going to grow 6% to the end of 2023, which feels like it is a long way away for me. it also just shows you how much you need earnings to grow to move the needle out this point. if 13% isn't enough, that is also a problem. i know you heard people saying we are priced to perfection. jonathan: that price target has got to change. you can imagine it is going to change a few times, and for me, but i use the outlook for is to try to gauge where consensus is right now, and it seems to be the consensus is starting to coalesce around this idea that prices around the index level will be pretty muted next year and the year after. lisa: it d

reporter: i personally think ubs has benefited quite a bit from the china joint venture.to take majority control of their china securities business, and there has been a lot of trading flow. a few years ago, the chief economist made a joke about chinese pigs, and there was a backlash. basically, if you want to work in china, you have to be quiet and compliant. tom: thank you so much. terrific perspective there. you can read her work on bloomberg opinion. can fan off about the way she encompasses all of the pacific rim. this is a market setting up for economic data in 35 minutes. you see it in the yield space with yields recovering. the two-year yield rounded up, 0.61%. lisa: some pretty strong numbers here as we see a u.s. economy that is really gaining momentum. just quickly, the idea that you can't have a great sense of humor, you have to remain quiet if you want to build your business in the world, and the second biggest economy at a time when every major u.s. company says that is a significant strategy of theirs. if you think about the tech companies talking about the

i am thinking goldman, ubs through 22023. lisa: we've heard about this in previous years, that you will only see single-digit returns for the s&p going forward, and others say this time is indifferent and we are going to see similar types of outsized gains. i do think it is interesting to about how there is so much dispersion on the single name stock response to earnings. this to me is actually a positive sign, the idea that there is discernment among the different corporations, that people are trying to understand the fundamentals. it speaks against the widespread casino where everything is a bubble kind of discussion we have had. jonathan: 2019, up by 29%. 2020, up by 16%. 2021, up by 25%. the last time we had a down year was 2018, towards the back end of the year, when the fed had to turn more hawkish and chairman powell just did not back away. that was before the massive chair powell pivot came the year after. lisa: is the lesson going to be to hold tight for longer than some people perhaps would like mid some of these in

check out this quote from ubs. "as pandemic drivers of economic distress begin to subside, we look into whether we are entering a new longer-term economic regime. " in that journey of discovery they have a 5000 base case on the s&p by june. lisa: the journey of discovery looks good for a lot of equity analysts. it is based on what hugo was just saying. you have super doves and they do not want to move quickly. jonathan: you think it looks better from the bahamas? would you be less bearish in the bahamas? lisa: you want to send me? he told us it was raining so we cannot get too mad at him. jonathan: jonathan ferro with matt miller. tom keene is back next week. on radio and on tv, this is bloomberg. leigh-ann: house democrats are expected to pass president biden's $1.6 trillion economic agenda. they had hoped for a vote late yesterday but republican leader kevin mccarthy put that off with a lengthy speech from the or that lasted into the early hours of this morning. meanwhile the congressional budget office released

we were close but you topped us, ubs. i give full credit. great job last night. what a fun night. >> laura: it was fun. it reminded me of 2016 fun. it was actually fun. >> sean: can we duplicate this in 2022 and 2024? that is all i'm asking. >> laura: no doubt, but don't you think some of the italian vote in new jersey got a little sick of the attacks on christopher columbus? no one has talked about that but i have a lot of friends in bergen county and they are like, people were killing each other, it was a horrible time but they really took offense to the attacks on columbus and columbus day. i know it is just a small issue but i kept hearing that all day long from people. >> sean: how close it was and i know you had the republican candidate like we do and it was so close. i am like, this is a tsunami election. now, republicans, though, they've got to get their act together, run on the platform and mean it and stand behind it. >> laura: you better come and i loved your interview with the new lieutenant governor, winsome series. she is awesome, that was a fantast

we were close but you topped us, ubs. i give full credit. great job last night.t. >> laura: it was fun. it reminded me of 2016 fun. it was actually fun. >> sean: can we duplicate this in 2022 and 2024? that is all i'm asking. >> laura: no doubt, but don't you think some of the italian vote in new jersey got a little sick of the attacks on christopher columbus? no one has talked about that but i have a lot of friends in bergen county and they are like, people were killing each other, it was a horrible time but they really took offense to the attacks on columbus and

former chairman and ceo of ubs america.ust heard, this wiki promise relief, but when will it come? >> you and i have chatted before. as you know i was nonsupportive of said chairs powell's view of transitory. it is clear to me that inflation was here then, it's here now and it will be here for the foreseeable future. because of supply and demand is completely out of whack right now based on the postpaid debacle putting. we have huge demand both in goods and services and that we have supply issues both from lack of manufacturing, lack of trade and a surge with respect to demand especially as we go into the holiday season. eric: what is the cause, is that natural were as you pointed out businesspeople raising the prices on purpose or is it just the cost of these items because of the pandemic that have increased? >> it is a few things, we have never had this type of pandemic and over 100 years. the idea that we knew how we were going to come out of it, we didn't. the pent-up demand has been building for 18 months the amount of

we were close but you topped us, ubs. i give full credit. great job last night.reminded me of 2016 fun. it was actually fun. >> sean: can we duplicate this in 2022 and 2024? laura: it was fun. reminded me of 2016 phone. >> can we duplicate this in 2022-2024? laura: no doubt but some of the italian vote in new jersey got a little sick of the attacks on christopher columbus, nobody talks about that but i have a lot of friends in bergen county and people

tapping the strategic petroleum reserve is among the options but ubs noting that this is a short-termng it won't address the structural issues of underinvestment and rising demand. kelly, back to you. >> pippa, thank you so much. >>> we will check back in with you tomorrow >>> it could be a long cold winter out in the uk as the country faces a power crisis there. brian sullivan is live in london looking at how bad things could get if the weather gets really cold brian? >> it is all in the weather's hands right now. i will give you an example for the five-year average price if you run it guy natural gas is at 18 bucks. it is now at 79, up 400% that's off its high of a couple of weeks ago it has been a worrisome time in england and in the eu as well. couple thing people say how did you get here? it wasn't one thing or one person to blap it was a lot of things happening at the same time four years ago england shut down its only natural gas storage unit they have to buy a lot because there was no place to store it then they went to renewables the problem is you need the wind to blow. the

we don't know enough right now but the market doesn't seem to care at ubs wealth management what do you do on days like today? >> that is a great question. and what's so great about the show, "worldwide exchange" gets at what we do. so first thing in my day is get on the phone with asia, what's going on and what we're seeing in the markets and with clients and what we know about situations let me give you a quick rundown. first, you know, one of the things we do highlight in our year ahead, it's certainly airing itself out to a degree with our clients in asia we have very sophisticated clients. they have liquidity plans, asset allocation plans with us so many of them are looking for, you know, what are the buying opportunities at a time when, you know, if you wanted to see a headline out of some place have a reaction in the market like this, you know, the fact that it came out on thanksgiving, it couldn't be have a more special timing >> yeah. i think that's an important point you are making obviously much of the world does not celebrate thanksgiving but we know that the united states s

. >> really quick, while we have time, fintech, ubs initiates the sector of course we got the news yesterday that amazon said that it would stop taking visa in the uk today reports about maybe not making it the code brand, switching to mastercard in north america. morgan stanley says this is how a negotiating process goes we've seen it with walmart and kroger a buying opportunity for v >> it is scary by the way that all the good news and love for mastercard from amazon is producing the worst result mastercard had an amazing meeting last week doesn't seem to matter at all my charitable trust owes mastercard and we're doing everything i thought the payments group was good it has gotten very competitive i have to have it under review for the club if only just for these are the greatest names on earth for five years maybe there are just too many of them got to do more work. >> i wonder your take, when i look at payments right now in fintech, i think that there is a group of companies some public some not yet that really bear more attention one is bill.com, these companies working with small and

so ubs today says inflation may lift volatility, but it's not going to derail the rally. we expect the fed will err on the side of caution as well and remain patient on rate rises no game changer this week, though if i tell you, okay, the stock market got through this week okay despite the cpi, but rates did rise and they will continue to rise from here and that is the most critical question, some of the high-profile guests that we have during the tenth anniversary and we talked about it including david tepper. i don't love any asset class at the current level, but if interest rates are going stay around here, stocks can go up. well, what if they don't remain around here from here? look he still has that view and the nasdaq can be up 10% i don't know that this week was confirming anything. what it confirmed to me is that the market is data dependent as is the fed we saw that with the big inflation print on wednesday and by the way, that also bounced back because the ten-year is artificially suppressed in terms of the yield because there was a massive short covering and it

this is ubs updating and saying you know what, we think the average price of oil for the comes yearst $75 a barrel and they increase their earnings by about 35%. i think there will be a lot of catch up overall then you get a stock with almost $11 of earnings in the next couple of years trading at $115 a share and there's value there. that's what this analyst is saying he's saying there's value there. cash is king especially in a rising rate world in a harder to make money world, cash is going to be king. that's what this upgrade is all about. just a consistency of cash flows they'll be able to pump out. >> pete, to be fair, the price target is 1.25 about 8% this upside not like this is going to be some huge more of a call if they're right. >> yeah. >> don't forget the dividend >> right yeah, that dividend is unreal. you look at their balance sheet. it's fantastic you look at the cash flows you were just talking about, jenny, they're extraordinary. sully, you know a lot about this world and the oil patch. you get it i think michael werth does an unbelievable job and always keeps focus