ubs's business model is working.what the bank ceo told cnbc following a surprisingly strong first quarter. net profit just over $1 billion benefitting from a trading income boost. since the financial crisis, ubs has shifted its focus to its wealth management. that's paid off, as well, with a rise in fees. carolin has more on the breakdown and joins us right now. hi, carolin. >> hey there, ross. these numbers, they're really smash all analyst estimates. we've got net profit in the fist quarter of around $1 billion. that was much, much better than expected and largely driven by the investment banking revenues, which were up 74% quarter on inte decent terms were driven b the equities trade chg is one of the strong points over at ubs. but even fixed income trading, that was strong even though ubs is winding down that business, at least partially. i spoke to sergio amarti, the ceo of ubs and here is how he feels about how this new business model is paying off. >> first of all, i think it is a confirmation that our strateg

the future of ubs, we focus on what ubs can do best. >> my thanks to axel webber of ubs. for analysis on the week, the news and other news from ubs, jonathan galub, chief stralt gist at ubs, mike santolli, chief of finance at yahoo!. what a rough week. in addition to all of the news surrounding the boston marathon, we have got selloffs in gold, other commodities, put this all to perspective for us as we look ahead to next week. what has investors concerned? >> seems like in the midst of an economic growth scare almost right on schedule. each spring we have had one of these things. right now taken a tone of, worried about deflationary forces, inflation expectations are down. commodities are suffering. asia growth not what we would hope. companies reporting earnings that in large part are kind of reaching estimates. but they're not saying they have very strong demand growth, revenue growth is slow. a choppy period in terms of looking at the outlook for the second half of the year when we were supposed to be getgetting economic growth. >> shocking events this week, boston, t

> my thanks to axel webber of ubs. joining me this week, another name from ubs, jonathan golub, chief equity strategist at ubs and mike santoli, senior columnist atia hao finance. gentlemen, good to see you. thank you so much for joining us today. mike, what a rough week. in addition to all of the news surrounding the boston marathon, we've got sell-offs in gold, other commodities. put this all into perspective for us as we look ahead toward next week. what has investors so concerned? >> it seems like we're in the midst of another economic growth scare. it's almost right on schedule in the spring of the last few years. each year we've had one of these things. it's taken the tone of the deflationary force, deflation examinati expectations are way down. companies reporting earnings that in large part are kind of reaching estimates, but they're not saying they have very strong demand growth. revenue growth is pretty slow. so it's been a choppy period, especially the outlook for the second half of the year where we were su

stock i had with paine webber went to ubs. i have a swiss bank account, ubs.no reason so. what have we got? >> 8.87. >> comcast is managed by merrill. >> that's the decision, merrill versus ubs. >> next and still ahead, a read on the housing market ahead of some of today's home price data and who will be here. yeah, the guy who it is named after. case schiller. he is co-founder of case schiller home price index. the american dream is of a better future, a confident retirement. those dreams have taken a beating lately. but no way we're going to let them die. ♪ ameriprise advisors can help keep your dreams alive like they helped millions of others. by listening. planning. working one on one. that's what ameriprise financial does. and that's what they can do with you. that's how ameriprise puts more within reach. ♪ >>> welcome back to "squawk box" this morning. your hands are going into the camera. the futures right now are down. dow opens 16 points. nasdaq off one and a half. s&p a little over two points. shares of avon. a van helped by cost cuts and improved sa

ubs tried to appeal the suit, claiming it was filed too late under federal law. but the court rules that the housing and economic recovery act of 2008 extended the filing period. millionaires in america made a staggering amount in unemployment benefits "during" the financial crisis. new data reveals they made a grand total of "80 million dollars" . in 2010, about 32 hundred millionaires received benefits -- a jump of about 44% from 2009. the congressional research service reports that several bills have been introduced in congress to limit jobless benefits to the wealthy, but so far the proposals have not gained traction on capitol hill. bad behavior is still prevelant on wall street despite a crack down on insider trading. a recent study found 35% of people working at hedge funds admit to felling pressure to break the rules. mostly because its tied to their compensation plans. 28% said the fund manager was not likely to contact law enforcers if a top trader was involved in insider trading. 13% the boss would likely ignore the problem. an executive director of th

we're not going to massively downsize like ubs.ll stick to bits we're good at and get out of bits we're not so good at and that credit suisse message fell aside because you had a massive dramatic transformation in its peer group. look at barclays and restructuring stories in the u.k. where people want to own equities, your alternative is lloyd's struggling to get sales done and rbs which is called to be broken up now by the church this week. where else are you going to put your money. all barclays has to do is keep the story of moving positively. >> maybe britain needs more banks at this point to give people options. >> it can't help them though. the very reason why co-op pulled out of lloyd's is because the bank of england has so much capital for new banks to come in. what the government wants, what the archbishop wants, you can't deliver under the bank of england's regulations. >> that's a great point. you mentioned credit suisse. the company reporting stronger than expected first quarter earnings helped by cost cuts and reductio

you know half time you pbt forget news ub even playing. so i guess more for the crowd maybe. is super stitch shus thing at all? yes. i mean you get hits union can change tem if you don't get hits you can change them. i guess a little bit stupe steugs. and my last ge question do youly take your time getting up there. >> i do not. but i definitely see people that like dow that. so, any one on this team. stkpwhrupl, not that i can think on this team. but i have definitely seen it. i can't remember who but i have seen it before. i might player two actually does that. >> georgetown called press conference tomorrow afternoon. we expect them announce he is leaving for nba. also there several reports that maryland alex lund do same later this week. that's all of time we have for tonight n thank you for watching. have good night.

ubs is a strategy.tainly de-emphasized it and focused on wealth management and that has done extremely well so far. >> you don't see morgan stanley going like this? >> morgan stanley has a fixed income issue and they're still suffering from the credit downgrade from way back, but this keeps happening and pressure grows on morgan stanley to do what they did. >> are the u.s. banks in better shape than the european banks? yes, all day long and twice on sunday. that's why i think this is an anomaly. i don't want to chase these and however, it is impressive and there are a lot of european companies including bp that reported a great number this morning. >> all right. >> there isn't a condo issue. i don't want to minimize that. >> condo -- that was a joke. will today be the day of the s&p? it's 1600. everybody is very excited about robert downey, jr., up there in front of this big poster. ♪ [ cows moo ] [ sizzling ] more rain... [ thunder rumbles ] ♪ [ male announcer ] when the world moves... futures move fir

you get two big major commodity downgrades by credit suisse and ubs. if you look at what's breaking down, but the momentum stocks broke down. it's great we have louise on. it all seems to be under the surface. >> i think what tim's saying is important. when you think about what saved us in '08 and '09, it was global glout growth reflation. you have the shanghai comp is down, you have russia down. and you have the u.s., which is becoming the s&p in particular. a very, very crowded trade. and i think in a lot of ways it's resting on the shoulders of the federal -- of the fed. and so to me -- >> which is dangerous. >> and you have a crowded s&p trade. so to me what makes sense when we're up here at all-time highs is to be cautious. tops are a process, we're not going to crash off of all-time highs is what i would say. you have to be cautious about committing new capital here. >> in terms of the action, where the action was. >> last time i was on with you here, mel, on the 5:00 show, we talked about whether or not the fed is going to make that move that ti

let me remind you, ubs was a bank that we basically had a near-death moment. if you've gone through that, your plans about how to become more resolvable are a lot more concrete than if this is just an abstract exercise in a war room. >> so are you expecting more divestitures out of this sector as a result of the law? >> in a general sense, yes. i think some of the banks like ubs have already progressed a lot, in that direction. other banks are still trying to sort of, you know, postpone that strategic and structural debate. >> so how does this play out? every analyst report i read, it's not about earnings growth, it's about all these regulators and what this is going to mean for the major banks. >> sure, and when we embarked, and i was part of the group that was rewriting this global regulation, one thing we always tried to make sure, that is a level playing field. i think over the last two years, the whole regulation has swung somewhat away from trying to ensure a global level playing field, and with global systemic surcharges for all the global banks being t

ubs is upgrading walt disney to buy with a $72 price target.l become more visible going forward. up about 45% over the last year. michael, you can't help but wonder if perhaps ubs is slightly late to the game here? >> we own disney a long time ago the other thing is they have a huge exposure to latin america which is going to be in the news with the olympics. latin america is doing very well. >> let's talk about anf. upgrading to outperform. the target is $63. shares are down about 30%. would you catch this one? >> no. i don't like this. i'll tell you why. i think they sell a very high priced product. the numbers showed that the consumer is getting more frugal. they are selling high priced goods to teenagers. i disagree with this call. they have got a 36 price target. made what it calls meaningful programs working through its legacy programs and resolving its issues over the past six months it has underperformed the market. would you be a buyer here? >> i think you would be a buyer here. that's better than what bank of america has in front of t

liz: i want to make a point about what has happened at ubs.ou've suffered a 20% drop between 2008 and 2010. you have found your way again. he is smiling. how did you guys do that? >> i think putting the client first. we focus on performance for our clients. it is a new world. it is not just about putting money in switzerland. it is about getting money for our clients. liz: you are doing the right thing. thank you very much. great to have you on fox business. it is these great minds that really matter here. closing bell is ringing in about 45 minutes. we are live from the milken institute for the entire hour at the beverly hilton hotel. we will hear from the former bank of america, on the biggest thing she is most worried about in the markets and high financials. stay tuned. ♪ i turned5 last week. the math of retirement is different today. i don't want to pour moneover pie charts all day. i want to travel, and i want the income to do it. ishares incomes etfs. low cost and diversified. find out why nine out of ten large professional investors ch

. >> right, because of ubs that calls the internet stocks beginning coverage on many of them, some havedings, some neutral. only sell rating is groupon. look at how the stock is fairing. it's down on the 6%. they say that groupon has an unproven business model, and wide mix in transformation, undergoing management change, according to ubs. what they did is they said they gave them a sell rating in the coverage of internet stocks. other ones, they had buy ratings on the other ones like google, ebay, yahoo, yelp, interactive corp.. they had neutral on the other ones, amazon, facebook, linked in, zinga, and only sell rating was groupon, as a result, a big loser, down nearly 6%, that price target is wrong, but the sell rating for groupon is a big, big hit, than that's the problem today. liz: yeah, and, yelp, i feel like it's all games, you know? rivals get on there and put a bad review in. mean. nicole, see you later. thank you. >> thanks. liz: looks may be deceiving when it comes to assessing the criminal investigation part of sac capital adviser's current nightmare. it is the most recent

they say ub ber violates city law.comedian tonight are paying tribute to jonathan williams. >> winters performed stand up in san francisco before 50. winter long career included movies and books as well as television. williams died in his home surrounded by family, he was 87-year-old. >>> now trending a story that's going to make you go aww. the baby tiger at the san francisco zoo, boy, warm weather ahead this weekend. meteorologist tell us how high the temperatures get. if you are on the go, you can still watch ktvu cast live on the your computer or on the app or go to ktvu.com. >>> hit the pavement today for the nation's first several walk to workday. the idea is to get people out of their cars. they include upgrades to curbs and crosswalk and increase crossing time in the intersection. >>> it was a gorgeous evening for a good baseball game. >> it's a little bit of breeze but look at the giants game in chicago. as far as the temperatures in the afternoon, they're -- upper 70s and even a few low 80s. on my storm track

. >>> como Él un tercio de los niÑos en estados unidos, sufren de sobrepeso o ub obesidad catalina se la revista publicÓ 3 estudios sobre factores que pueden aumentar el peso de los pequeÑos. uno de ellos es ver televisiÓn por largas horas. >>> estar in activos, tienen influencia de los comerciales, donde hay comida chatarra y lo tercero puede ser que cuando estas distraÍdo comes mÁs. otro factor es el tamaÑo del plato. la investigaciÓn realizada por la universidad de filadelfia, encontrÓ que darle los niÑos un plato mÁs grande hace que se sirvan mÁs comida. el 80% de los niÑos tuvieron 90 calorÍas mÁs al comer en un plato mÁs grande. el estudio dice que no dormir bien es otro factor que propicia la obesidad infantil. >>> cuando se duerme poco, la adrenalina sube, es la hormona del hambre, pero baja la leptina que es de la saciedad. >>> nunca bajarÁ la guardia estarÁ atenta que sus himgs hagan deporte, coman saludable y se mantengan activos. vanessa hauc, telemundo. >>> ha medida que pasan los aÑos, los vehÍculos envejecen y sufren averÍas y repararlos le causan gran dolor a nuestro b

ubs boosted its price target for disney.isney closed at 63 even, up almost 2%. >> shares of both moody investor services and mcgraw-hill jumped today after the companies announced a settlement on friday of lawsuits charging that they had misled investors about the safety of risk debt vehicles. moody led the s&p 500 today closing more than 8% higher while mcgraw-hill gained over9n 3%. >>> express scripts reported profits and revenues above expectations and lifted profit guidance for the rest of the year. the stock was up roughly 1% for the regular session and then moved higher in after hours trading. >>> live by the wing or die by the wing. buffalo wild wings posted profits of 87 cents a share. the company did say full year profits will be higher as costs for chicken wings trend downward. sales for the current quarter are up more than 5%. shares for the company were down ahead of the report and moved higher after the close. >>> herbalife reported profits above expectations with revenues in line with estimates, but it reduced

. >> replace the default sounds your victim's computer makes when a ubs drive is inserted. something like this. >> oh yeah, what is that? put it back. oh yeah, put it back. >> so simple, but so great. >> grab some leftover coffee and pour it into the upper tank of the toilet. when your victim goes to flush -- >> troutman -- >> what a great idea. >>> taking a ferry into a dangerous dock. >> that's getting pounded by rough seas. >> people are going to have to get off this boat on to this dock. >> see how they brave the soaking-wet commute. >>> plus this little boy's got some skills with the drumsticks. >> and he is six years old now. >> oh, my gosh. are you kidding me? this guy's great. >> he's >>> next time you want to complain about your morning commute, remember this video, this is approach to the komos island in the aegean sea, you can see this boat trying to pull up to this dock. the aegean sea is known to get a bit rough. but the main means for transportation for the people on this island is by boat. so you see the dock workers in very dangerous conditions, trying to ge

same story with ubs. in the month that apple went to its all-time high of 705, ubs raced from 740 to 780. and near the bottom, price target got slashed. 500. and what's happened since then. how about a 40-point rebound out of nowhere the stock closing at $442 and change. i wonder, and you're thinking it too if the same analysts will start raising their price targets tomorrow. i have to tell you, this -- while this apple price target cut pattern is more egregious than most, we have seen analysts jump ship over and over and over at the least provocation, considering that when best buy, the big retailer was traveling on the way down from 30 two years ago to 1 $1 in december of last year, it received an increasing amount as it approached the low. a crescendo of down grades when it reached a level that turned out to be a tremendous buying opportunity. same with netflix, in the 70s down from 297, only to see the stock triple soon after and downgrade, downgrade, downgrade. chipotle from 402 to 294, a fabulous ti

let's bring in eric sheridan, analyst at ubs.initiated coverage of 14 tech stocks and likes google, aol and his only sell is on groupon. yahoo on this initiation of coverage touched a new 52-week high. thanks for being with us. >> thanks for having me. >> a lot of the reasons behind your positive rating on yahoo has been outlined by a lot of other analysts on the street. is there a catalyst here at which point we can expect some of these things to materialize? >> well, you know, we expect catalyst over the next three to 12 months for yahoo. both on the operating front and on the asset value front. alibaba group we did some deep dive in the report today around valuation. we still think there is a wide range of from where the last transaction alibaba group was done to upside to the case of albie live baba group which yahoo owns 24%. also yahoo japan, our ubs analyst in japan upgraded his price target to 50,000 yen. and to boot on the operational side, we're very big fans of the new management team at yahoo. we think marissa meyer a

tom, ubs global asset management head, u.s. equities. what do you think of what his case is? >> i agree with his case almost completely. however, it hasn't worked. you know, sticking to what's been working has been a way to play this rally here. >> no doubt about that. >> if you look at some of the -- we talked to offset about some of the refiners about some of the oil makers, trying to look for something that hasn't rallied yet and get into it, that's not working. sticking with this market has been led by the names that have been moving higher. they are still taking us higher. i would say -- >> that remains? you're a little skeptical of whether the stocks that have led the rally from a defensive nature can keep going? >> what was attractive about some of the staples is they had an above market yield. you look at some of those now, and it's actually an average or below market yield with higher risk. if you take a look at and i own some of the hospital stocks, don't own them now, but one company came in. perhaps the worst mgsd company there with a cloud over it from "60 minute

the stock jumped nearly 2% on the news, and received an upgrade from ubs. twinkies are coming back to town. the private equitygroups that now own hostess brands are taking applications at some locations. the plan is to open bakeries in georgia, kansas, illinois and indiana, possibly by late may. the shops will be non-union. the new owners promise to not discriminate against job applicants with union ties. twinkies, ho hos and other snacks will be on store shelves by july. still to come, why companies might want to consider the cost of kindness. that's later on. but first, bill moller gets insights on some of the most tight-lipped individuals in charge of the global economy. that's next. late summer 2007, the beginning of the global recession. the world was in a panic. and in large measure, it was up to three men to stand in the way of a full global financial collapse: ben bernanke and his two fellow central bankers, the head of the bank of england and the head of the european central bank. "the alchemists" is effectively an insider's account of how they did

ubs upgrading chipotle noting that shares can grow over the next 18 months. plus i don't like the fact that it has had a bad year, it has rallied back about 48%. >> all right. let's move on to another call from jp morgan. downgrading from neutral to overweight. they believe they remain constrained. overall it's a triple digit loss, so what do you think? >> then i would short it as well. >> and it's trading at 11:34. thank you so very much. appreciate it. >> manufacturers medical device s downgrade that stock to underwait competitive offices. >> thank you very much. most americans are rushing to file their returns on time, some are busy cheating. we're following the money next on power lunch plus. gold crushed. prices getting ready right now. how he made it, how he paid for it and why he did it, next. but we can still help you see your big picture. with the fidelity guided portfolio summary, you choose which accounts to track and use fidelity's analytics to spot trends, gain insights, and figure out what you want to do next. all in one place. i'm meredith stod

ubs raising the dow component to buy from neutral.seas debut for "ironman 3," the film grossing $195 million in 42 markets outside the u.s. and chrysler says profits fell 65% in the quarter, citing the cost of new vehicle launches and the number three u.s. automaker also reaffirming their guidance for the full year. >> it's a key week for economic data. we have the fomc meeting and a jobs report at end of the week. he'll tell us what to expect. it's one of those weeks that sets economists aquiver with anticipation. ward, tell me what you're watching most closely this week. i would assume the employment report is very person, but we have a lot more this week, as well. >> we have a very busy week ahead of us and it starts today with the treasury. i think what we're going to find is they revised down their borrowing projection substantially and enough so that it gives them room that they can start cutting the sizes of short-term coupon options in the months immediately ahead and we had the fomc on wednesday and it's a two-day meeting and

meanwhile, ubs is recommending 13 internet companies with google as the top pick. so what should you do about tech in your portfolio? we turn to david garrity for some answers on that. he runs his own tech research firm, gva research. let me start asking you, david, about apple. i know you have been very bullish on this stock. you have a target price of $650 on it. but how should investors factor in this new information from goldman? >> i think goldman's view is essentially one where there is greater competition coming from apple from the likes of samsung and other hand set providers that are powered by google's android operating system. and there are obviously certain questions and perhaps some disappointment as to what it is that apple's management is going to be doing with $137 billion in cash that they have. they haven't raised the dividend as of yet. so this are some questions here in terms of just where does apple stand competitively and where do they stand in terms of creating shareholder value. >> so do you like the stock? you would buy it at this price? >>

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guest says we could see a surprise to the upside joining us now the chief investment strategist for ubs wealth management good to see you. >> this is a nice rally today. not typical of monday to see the upside. your thoughts? i know there was some tremors because of foul call was. >> today's rally have little to do with the earnings season may be more from the fallout of friday and with japan although it was weak the economy is not rolling over but at of japan's central bankers of pride -- provide the support that the business managers are looking for. lou: that is shocking. so many say i hate and bernanke and we need to pull the punch bowl away and how will you accept for -- exit kiwi three now the markets are cheering one point* four stimulus by the bank of japan? i don't know it seems like insincerity on the part of some. >> when you see the market reaction they have to deal with the reality of the central bank's that said we will do three things. we will take the risks away from the extraordinary events, a target better economic outcome and facilitator a better environment. >> it is

ubs raised target on phone service provider, verizon hitting $52 a share. over the last hour and a half, moving higher and staying there. up about $109. as we watched development and we'll put this in a split screen. in watertown. just so you don't miss anything, we'll get to floor show, traders at new york stock exchange, cme group and nymex and lauren on the floor of the new york stock exchange. first though to our traders. your thoughts john on the fact that while we're down about 23 points for dow industrials almost like but for ibm we would have a higher market even with the news. >> that just add its volatility that we've seen in the market, the big swings up and down continuing in the market. we'll see them moving forward. ibm taken out, we're green across the board not surprising considers that headlines and earning season effects already. let's look forward to next week. not a lot of economic data will move the markets, we have cat tractor on monday, a big bellwether name that could show some direction. and the headlines that are coming out this we

ubs as well as hsbc, lowering their gold forecasts for the year.ast higher than where we are today. by the way, guys a huge rally in the fwran trading room. corn prices up 6%. soy up 6%. wheat prices up 6%. warmer temperatures in major corn-growing regions right now. there are forecasts in the next several days for colder than normal temperatures and, guys, we're dealing with a lot of rain, a lot of wetland. it is hard for farmers too plant. those skyrocketing grain prices helping farm equipment stocks today. that is where the trade is in the stock market. buy stocks like deere, agco, anybody that sells the big farm machinery equipment, when grain prices go up, there is expectations that farm income will go up and farmers may purchase new equipment. those stocks doing very well in the stock market today. back to you guys in the studio. ashley: makes sense in theory. we'll see. sandra at the cme. thank you so much. appreciate it. tracy: let's talk about more what it going on with our earnings season. companies are reporting disappointing top lynum m

ubs tells me he remains neutral. as for the former he points to falling commodity prices.luding, of course, today's jobs report is clearly pointing to weaker overall demand. as for technology. and tablets are maturing markets and there does not seem to be any disruption. and consumer staples. benefit higher asset value homes. he added that lower interest rates and debt burdens are capitalizing on funds available. >> still betting on the consumer. go for the consumer? >> that's right. his point is listen, the economy is weak. you can see this morning, you will benefit here at least some consumers from higher asset values. and listen, low rates means more refis. >> i like your thinking. j.c. penney shares are higher today. we'll tell you why and what hedge fund manager said that had some scratching their heads. and next the boxer or briefs discussion. and yes, those are your only discussions. yes, commandos. i know who you are. actually no i don't. and we're creating tax free zones for business startups. the new new york is working creating tens of thousands of new businesse

steve joins us from ubs.his sector for a long time and you know your way around m & a as well. my first question to you is simply why do you think blackstone seems willing to pay more than $13.65 and jump this deal? >> well, they've got dave johnson who went to blackstone from dell so he knows the company intimately and they believe they can do something with it. what's interesting is that michael dell and silver lake's approach doesn't seem to be doubling down. i would think they would look at something to sell off the lower end consumer pc business so you don't get the sense that they know that much more than we do outside the company. i'm not quite sure what blackstone is thinking, but they get to come in with a full bid and we'll see what happens. >> they have got come and they've indicated they will, but we haven't seen it and they've got a couple of weeks to do that and meanwhile, the business is deteriorating and this was something they got a few weeks ago. the key number, 5.6 in july for fiscal year 2

. >>> let's hear from stephane deo, from ubs. welcome. >> good morning. >> let's start out with the ecb. to ross' point, do you think this is more about macro weakness, more about cyprus? >> i think it will be a lot about cyprus. what we have in cyprus is a precedent and the question is whether this is the template -- well, we don't know precisely. and if you look at the market reaction, what is very interesting is the spreads have not widened. the market is very relaxed from the cyprus deal. >> relaxed? >> i would say so. basically, the market is telling you you're cutting the link between the band and government. so you don't protect the government, but you're much more worried about banks. that's the topic for the ecb i think because that means that the financing of the bank will be much more difficult because markets are pricing the risk now. >> and that in itself is going to hurt performance in terms of the broader economy going forward. >> definitely. and i think that to think about all the countries in southern europe. the

he's head of taiwan research at ubs. thank you so much for your time. is tsml delusional or are they right to think they can do well in a market where apple is suffering? >> i think they have an advantage. one is there's probably a certain degree of inventory building as coming through. and on the other hand, i think it is probably gaining a bit of market share. it's an overall perspective, i think it certainly does have its advantages. >> and dow sort of sympathize with the view here that this is now become ago story that's more about the strugglings of apple and those particular suppliers to the country as opposed to the sector at large? >> well, i think in general, i do think that the overall food chain or supply chain in taiwan are still waiting for some type of seasonal build. some of the new product introductions and some of the rebuilds are coming through more in the q3 time frame. in the q1 and q2 quarter, we're not seeing a lot of seasonal pick up. but other than that, i think the food chain checks suggest things are still looking quite muted.

and if you look at the surprise index, citi has one, ubs has one.n going and chart that with the s&p, almost a perfect correlation. the stock markets are responding to the economy. the thing distorting is the bond market. >> if it's private wealth, i imagine you don't do short-term stuff at all. a lot of people are calling for a pullback now. and they've been calling for a pullback for three months and whenever they do that, it never pulls back. >> u.s. stocks we feel are fully valued. >> fully valued? >> yep, fully valued. and we see better values in europe, global players, global franchises, based in europe that have been sold off too much. we actually see some values in japan. so we're market weight on u.s. equities. you know, in terms of short-term, our clients don't typically trade, but we do recommend in our allocation clients maintain an opportunistic element in their portfolio. >> does that mean cash? >> and working out, working out of some opportunities and the continued working out of the situation in europe will create opportunities comin

other names, bb&t, ubs, carlisle group got them early.in trying to make good so they didn't have too. of an edge immediately released them before our markets opened at 9:00 a.m. eastern but the fact is, these guys got it 19 hours earlier. they could have traded in overseas and asian markets which opened while we're all sleeping. listen they say over at the fed it was human error. it was purely by accident that these fed minutes, which are the minutes from the most previous meeting, the most recent meeting, that they were this leaked early by accident. these people never get it early. there is no favoritism, but you know what? there was yesterday. ashley: there was and okay it was a mistake. this is something they do every month and have done for ages. why do you make this mistake? huge impact on market yesterday. we saw the yield come down a little bit but honestly it was irrelevant because it was before --. liz: somebody made money. somebody found a way to make money. ashley: that is the reality. president obama unveils his budget plan,

the suspect's father you can but not the mother who's wanted on shoplifts charges here, will ub flying to boston possibly tomorrow or friday. we're learning about how the two brothers lived and where they got their money. allegedly from selling drugs. that is a theory that law enforcement is working on. they don't have specific evidence on that. we'll find out more details tonight. many new developments as well as this. boyleston street, which has been a crime scene for a week and a half is open again. there are scars, but this is part of the strong city, no longer an open wound. and earlier today, more than 4,000 people, singer james taylor included gathered to remember a fallen mit police officer. murdered the suspect fled last thursday. vice president biden was at the service calling the bombing suspects twisted, perverted, cowardly. what did authorities here and there know about the pair, especially the older one who travelled to russia last year for six months and was on the radar of russian intelligence a year before that. breaking news tonight from nick walsh and joe johns and g

above and beyond that i think we have the obligation in our private sector when i was chairman of ubs 9/11 we had calls every single day across the country alerting our workforce which totaled over 10,000, what to expect. what was going on. good communications is up pair tiff. they have to like all americans exercise more vigil. liz: one of the most brilliant pieces of investigative material they put out there was the pictures. within four seconns practically these guys were on the run and they were trapped like rats. certainly suspect number one never made it. big firefight in the middle of the night. fox business's griff jenkins was right there. he witnessed the whole thing. no less than 100 gunshots exchanged but the fact is in were many different law enforcement groups that have, you know, descended upon the boston area. is that from what we have learned post-9/11? by the way here is video. you can hear in the background some gunshots that happened back then. just stunning. >> we have learned and in our estimation we are much more safer than we are then. but we're not safe. we hav

ubs raising its price target to $110 from 105. 101. a buy rating as well. ashley: a consumer staple. speaking of all time highs, a few more members of the dow trading at new lifetime highs including home depot, travelers, and procter and gamble. my, oh, my. "after the bell" starts right now. ♪ let's get right to today's action. we have invested manage it chief investment officer not spooked by prices. he is buying the beaten down region. he is right in the middle of the action in the pits of the cme. every, the fed just keeps on humming along those printing presses for things like the market's tumble along with them. >> reporter: think that is what it amounts to. last friday, 1% sell-off on the week of unemployment report, bad news. we have not had a sell-off of more than 12% and who knows how long. the market is looking at what the fed monetary policy is. by 85 billion. that is a lot of liquidity. that is driving the market, and there's zero interest-rate. you like what they're doing. it is causing some is allocations. safety maybe not being so safe. liz:

. >> yeah, with us right now, jonathan gloouk from ubs and andre. thanks so much for joining us.w this is fueled by the federal reserve on the one hand and perhaps fueleded by some better economic stories in the u.s., but does it just keep going up? i mean -- i don't think so. i mean, i hate to be the bear, but if you look at the economic data over the last month, it's actually been disappointing. the inflation expectations have been coming down, commodity prices are coming down. yields on treasuries coming down. all of it basically says, everything is pointing to a down market except equities. >> right, so do you want to fight the momentum? >> i think, ultimately, this thing is going to roll over. you're seeing all the signs. the defensive leadership, all that's telling you this trade is really long in the tooth. >> what do you think? >> i think it's okay to say that there might be a correction, but i prefer to be wrong tactically, but get it right strategically over the next couple of years. and when you look at it from a strategic standpoint, what are your other options? bonds

ubs shares on the rise. scott davis spaeeaks with me exclusively in a few moments. we'll see what his business says about the overall economy and those better than expected earnings from u.p.s. and harley davidson stocks switching into high gears on wall street. how the president is boosting the motorcycle seller's bottom line. stay with us. [ male announcer ] what?! investors could lose tens of thousands of dollars in hidden fees on their 401(k)s?! go to e-trade and roll over your old 401(k)s to a new e-trade retirement account. none of them charge annual fees and all of them offer low cost investments. e-trade. less for us. more for you. and all of them offer low cost investments. at tyco integrated security, we consider ourselves business optihow?rs. by building custom security solutions that integrate video, access control, fire and intrusion protection. all backed up with world-class monitoring centers, thousands of qualified technicians, and a personal passion to help protect your business. when your business is optimized like that, there's no stopping you. we

paul richards from ubs here. the dow has just gone negative. you left-hand to the conversation. >> i'm not a stock picker but i know where i putting my own money, long t property, long stocks because from my perspective, until the fed starts withdrawing stimulus, what are you going to do with your money? if you've got no choice, buy stocks, buy property, and when they say that, you know, the economic stimulus is enough, at that point then you start to consider other things. that's when i think the stock market comes up but not before. i think you've got another year of this rally. >> t another year. >> another year. >> you don't make anything of these warning signs that we've been talking about for the last couple of days, sort of quote, unquote, pillars of strength that are now starting to show some cracks? >> i think they're very good signs we're seeing strengths come into the economy but a long way to go. more critically, bernanke is a very patient man. he's not getting out of the way of this one any time soon. >> your thoughts of what japan

at least 17 brokerages slashing their price targets today, including lazard, ubs, and alliance bernsteind also mention boeing, though, today. boeing did enjoy a nice pop, maintained its full-year guidance, pleasing investors. this second group here, now, this is an interesting group of companies. these are companies that beat on the bottom line, but they missed on the top line. one name, one example would be whirlpool. the ceo actually talking to our own carl quintanilla earlier today and the ceo saying the only place internationally he saw real, true growth was china. that stock down today, but still up about 80% over the past nine months. and procter & gamble took a nasty tumble today. organic sales and guidance disappointing investors. and we'll end here on these three names. these names missed on both the bottom line and the top line. waste management. i know you two were talking to the ceo about an hour ago. i thought it was interesting when you asked him how he's going to be allocating capital. he talked about dividends, paying down debt, he also said maybe buying back stock later