deutsche bank and ubs did briefly look at emerging this year. ubs a swiss bank.t would've been a cross-border merger. a lot of interesting discussion points. back to markets and where we are ending the month of may. it has been a bloodbath for the major indices across the europe. the dax down. .he stoxx 600 down .8% two sectors higher, two groupings, including utilities and real estate. it is a rush to safety and a rush out of anything remotely tariff related, bank related. you saw the cac 40 down .9% and in italy down .7%. that index has dropped more than 10%. italian investors going the pain. let's dive into the granular details of what was happening. , the banks index of the stoxx 600 is one of the major head. -- one of the major hit. was one of the worst performers in the dax today and renault the worst performer in the paris force. all of the automakers, including gm and ford both down more than 4% being hit by the tariff impact. we do not know what the president will do regarding european car import tariffs. all of those carmakers getting hit from every dir

ubs, sure. >> the one >> the u.s.one else has a higher -- >> well, i'm sure you'll find plenty of people with opinions listen, at the end of the day -- >> do you speak for ubs on this? >> i do, yes >> so ubs is saying get out of the market >> i don't think that's the message at all >> what is the message if you're 300 plus to the down side? >> listen, if we hit the 2550, the s&p will be up 2% for the year right? we're down 6 last year put that in perspective. i don't think i'm describing a scenario that the end of the world where everybody has to get out of stocks. i just don't think it's what consensus. >> why wouldn't i get out and buy it being bah at 2550 if -- >> if ewe a short of it term investor and -- >> that's not short-term that's avoiding a 12% loss or whatever it is is that -- >> for most institutional investors, it's going to be more about positioning their portfolios appropriately for a slowing economy. >> i thought we had other ubs analysts that were more constructive on the market >> i'm sure you'll fin

in the next hour we are joined by the ceo of ubs. u.k.we will speak to marco aldara. -- hourarrow later later, look ahead to european elections. manus: conversations continue at 11:00 a.m.. i will also talk to the oecd chief economist. , the chancellor of oxford university. ♪ nejra: good morning from bloomberg's european headquarters. manus: this is "bloomberg daybreak: europe" and these are today's top stories. lead a chorus of footwear giants calling trump's tariff policy catastrophic for consumers. china says it could step up retaliation after huawei was blacklisted. bloombergtic tells the scales are not tilted in either direction on fed policy. jay powell brings up the possibility of using an inflation range. power down. fora shares fall below $200 the first time since 2016. saysbullish analyst profitability targets face an uphill climb. nejra: welcome to "daybreak europe we are just under an hour -- daybreak europe." we are just under an hour from the start of cash trading. we saw the stoxx 600 drop more than 1% yesterday, led down b

cause major problems for the markets and thatould easily drop the s&p into the $2600 range.rn out, ubs agrees with that and the report out yesterday ubs had a complete breakdown in trade talks could result in u.s. stocks dropping 12% to 15% and a that'sly the 2600 area with china stocks dropping even more dow 15% to 20%. for the most, the market is acting like the mostiky outcome might not be an all-out trade warnd it's the middle ground and no trade deal and no increase in tariffs if negotiations continue and we'll see if that's the outcome. for "nightly business report," i'm bob pisani at the new york stock exchange. >> the chinese delegation is in washington for thept resn of those negotiations. the early word out of beijing is that they plan to play hard ball and president trump wasn't tipping his hand on the u.s.te st. kayla tausche reports. >> talks with china re-opened tonight after the dispute that the language had become public and vitriolic. president trum l isving his options open, praising chinese leadership, but scolding them for backing off their commitments. >> i have no

a report that was out yesterday, ubs said a complete breakdown in trade talks could cause u.s. stocks to drop 10% to 15%. that is the 2600 area with china stocks dropping even more, 15% to 20% ubs also expects and appreciates risks off currencies the classic one here the japanese yen with the euro and emerging market currencies, the chinese to be negatively impacted come over here to the telestrator. look at what the likely outcome of the trade talk deals are. again, we've had several possible outcomes. one is a trade deal gets done. that seems increasingly unlikely in a short time. a third is that everybody goes home unhappy and the markets certainly will drop and we talked about dropping potentially 10% to 15% but the hope right now is that we get no trade deal, no tariff hike and the negotiations will continue that's at least the hope for most of the people down here guys, back to you. >> bob, thank you. bob pisani at the new york stock exchange just a few hours until the new round of tariffs kick in on chinese goods. let's take a closer look at what's at stake for both side

palabras de bienvenida, al autor de la visita >>> voraz incendio, que se reporta la parte posterior ub son ana y incorporadanÓ envuelta en llamas, era en una zona, en el caso que era inaccesible, lograron escapar a tiempo del hallazgo >>> fuego de un voraz incendio arrasÓ, en san diego, el humo podrÍa ser visto a la redonda, de la primera vez que se reporta un incendio conducir ebrio, condenado a tres aÑos de libertad condicional y tendrÁ que estar en un programa la defen delito menor, este miÉrcoles los trabajadores, piden seguridad, con dÍas libres pagados, cotizaban la bolsa de valores despuÉs de una masiva fÁbrica nos tiene lo Últimas noticias >>> inmortal >>> ocular noches, con un escalofrÍo para ver esto en anoche habÍa una llama ardiente >>> empleadose la dxplosiÓn en el departamento de bomberos, e fueron transportados al hospi l hospital, y se fueron a casa, pero otro tres hombre, jamÁs lograron ver, dijo el abogado de la empresa >>> el alcalde, descubriÓ como una zona de guerra imagino que pensarÍa ver esto, estamos a sito secret tap estamos a 150 ps >>> las imÁgenes muestras,

ubs has hired five managing directors for the investment banking business. biggest competitors are also wrapping up expansion in the region. that is the business flash. manus: the debate which is raging over the fence next move continues. it was added to by commentary in recent days. one president says he continues to forecast one rate hike, and fees inflation running slightly above 2%. the chicago fed president says the risk of inflation may get stuck below the central bank 2% target, raising strategic concerns. nejra: meanwhile from the cleveland fed president, one needs to ask whether it is credible for policymakers to commit to keeping interest rates low to kee make up for shortfalls. and this morning from bloomberg, the dallas fed president said rates are in the replacement week inflation merits close watching. >> to that the limits of inflation, when is the cyclical element, the items that change every month. in that regard, i do believe some of these recent headlines of inflation measures, some of the drops are transitory. financial prices, some eleme

john wraith is the head of macro rates and strategy and economics at ubs.e stays with the daybreak team. we had earnings from the banks. you heard that cfo of ing saying that they look for transactions as they are presented. would not be moved on whether they had had talks with commerzbank. told it make sense for them do that deal question mark in terms of crust border deals, are there challenges without deposit guarantees, is that ahead -- a hint of what it might take? there is almost a potential secondary. it is not what will drive the narrative on ing. a little bit lighter on some of the numbers but that interest income. paribas.re about -- interest up 29%. ♪ >> we think our policy stance is appropriate. we do not see a strong case for moving any other direction. first quarter performance i think is not related to anything we did in terms of raising rates. the financial system is quite resilient to shocks of various kinds. if we need to, we will use our developmentp somewhere in the target range. we don't expect to do it again, but we don't know. we thin

that was the chief china economist for ubs. don't forget our interactive function. past interviews and dive into the securities and bloomberg functions we talk about. become part of the conversation by sending us instant messages during our shows. this is for bloomberg subscribers only. this is bloomberg. ♪ loomberg. ♪ taylor: china taking another step towards opening their financial sector to foreign companies. they are announcing plans to remove limits and scrap size requirements. the trade talks are wrapping up in beijing. financial regulation to reporter lucile liu has this. -- regulation reporter lucile liu has this story. reporter: yesterday within half an hour of the trade delegation retreating behind closed doors , theyrt negotiations announced 12 measures they were planning to in the near future implement. these implement things like lifting caps for size requirements. foreign banks had to have $20 billion in total assets before they could set up branches in china. what we are hearing from analysts so far is that such removal of the caps would allow the sma

let's bring in thomas fang, ubs china equities head.investors -- are retail investors and other investors in china that scared about what the u.s. might do? we have caught the market on pause for adjustment. to date, the market has been pretty strong on fundamentals. overnight it really triggered this adjustment. vonnie: it is very volatile, though. 7% often can china absorb a to 10% drop in stocks? is it a major deal? obviously, it would be in the united states. is it in china? thomas: it is a surprise. looking at the market, it is a general selloff. if you look at the foreign investors, it is also a big selloff today as well, so it is a combination of fundamentals a little but ahead of the market itself, and the market really took a hit. guy: thomas, how worried are the chinese authorities about stockmarkets? do they care more about the currency market? how highly does the stock market feature? president last december highlighted capital markets as the primary goal to get it right. indeed, they will pay a lot more attention than last

>> not as bad as ubs sounds, cheryl.nute ago with you and ashley webster, this is really de minimis. let's ask ourselves the question of how did the production get china in the first place when phil knight, nike as well as walmart, warren buffet, fruit of the loom, moved the manufacturing from 100 years of footwear and textiles in the u.s. to the people's republic of china. as doug pointed out, it could be moved to other countries in south asia. it could be on-shored with robotics, machineization and technology, slowly but surely with the supply chain in the u.s. and -- cheryl: i need to push back. it's not what we're fighting with them -- we're not fighting over footwear with them. fighting about internet protocol, the theft of our technology, the forced transfers, the lack of investment. it's other things that we're arguing about. for the retailers' point it would make sense for them to leave operations in china, i would think, take the tariff fight out of this, look forward and maybe look to a day we have an agreement

investment at ubs global wealth management. nice to have you.hen you look at the president, how much does this hurt the fed we worry about independence, i first heard mario draghi address independence concerns. carolyn: this is not a new issue, is it? he has made comments several times. i seem to member there were concerns in the past. hopefully, they are still independent. we do noteing that think they will be raising rates anytime soon or cutting it. inflation is slightly below target, but not like zero inflation. we are still not that far off. economists see a trend of inflation picking up, and it hasn't. do we have any inflation? -- any explanation? caroline: this is the interesting conundrum, isn't it? growth has been ok, but inflation is a weaker element. some of that is intermingled with productivity and the wage market and competent areas nobody has gotten to -- complicated areas nobody has gotten to the bottom of. and if you are using excess down,ty, oil is not going you got a bit of wage pressure. it should eventually go up. this is th

thanks, mike ryan, ubs global wealth management for the americas cao.e just one hour into this friday's session in the united states. we are going into a long weekend. oil prices lower. equities bouncing, but they are off their highs per the s&p 500 is up .25 of a percent, just seven points, having started higher. equally for the dow, we are up about .25. total system services up more than 10% on a potential merger with global payments. we will be looking at that story this hour. this is bloomberg. ♪ from downing street, i am guy johnson. vonnie: from new york, i am vonnie quinn. this is bloomberg. breaking news, president trump is appealing the ruling in the deutsche bank subpoena case. president trump is appealing the ruling in the deutsche bank subpoena case. of course, you remember a federal judge rejected president trump's request to keep his banks from producing financial records to lawmakers. the president is now appealing the ruling. meantime, time for your latest bloomberg business flash, look at some of the biggest is in a stories in the news.

. >> what sorts of things are ub. >> well, it depends on the money in a it been inembassy pb and now this want blpt popping beyond me just a few days ago. >> if so you can bet on certain things and not mack money, but the challenges this company faces are very difficult and the answers are not -- >> it still a great concept. the blackmarket just put up $ 8 million. nm think it would nominate betwe between. >> bob, we're going to lean on you again. tells what's going on there. >> we're close to 30 million railroad, 10% is very typical, 18 million shaurs. woor close here. think people are still -- it the last to tn%. >> i went to $le 8 typically i will sao 100 to 250 mhow lift has traded poorly, as well the fact that we've had extreme mash tilt in the last week all that makes it difficult to do and we got new indications here, just let me check here i heard just yell out a minute ago, 42 to 43 are new indications that we're hearing about right now. i think the important thing here is we're probably 90% of the way and the holdouts themselves are simply waiting for a opportunity to buy a

still with us is evan brown of ubs asset management.sounds like the meeting has almost upbeat tone to it. nnmarie: they do have an upbeat tone. very different then what the shareholders were saying. shareholders are angry and frustrated. one of them was saying that it is cheaper to buy a share of deutsche bank in germany then it is to buy a pack of cigarettes. the main thing coming up next will be the vote of confidence in the supervisory board. the big shareholders actually want to see the chair go before his term is up in 2020 two. even ecb officials and regulators say the bank would be better off without the chair, something you don't see everyday. they have announced more cost cuts today, but the stock is still trading at a record low. announcing those didn't move the needle. david: it doesn't seem comprehensive. it only seems piecemeal. we heard that they are prepared to make tough cutbacks. why haven't they done it already? annmarie: that is a very good question. how much do you decimate something before what is left of it? ofre t

tom: caroline simmons with ubs, thank you so much.alk-through of about eight international themes today, and he is with teneo intelligence. it is the beginning of an exciting week. i would center back to the thursday e.u. elections. and we do not see results right away. it takes a couple of days to get all the country's devout, is that right? francine: right. it starts thursday. a lot will be thursday. it will be -- a lot will be sunday. it is up in the air whether they really have an impact on policies outside brussels. of course, it could have an impact on brexit if nigel frost does really well -- if nigel farage does really well. next hour, we consider the equity markets, the courage to be in the markets given all of the news flow. john gallo joins, with credit suisse. futures a little red right now. this is bloomberg. ♪ tom: oil elevates as opec manages the macroeconomics of supply and demand. the president, by tweet, manages , badran story -- good cop cop, rinse and repeat. little news on the trade war front -- one thing is that

george and amal are inviting one lucky couple to join them on a ub date in italy. >> that's awesome.ng a tough time accepting who did real star of the family is. >> hi, i'm amal clooney's husband george and we invite you to come with us to lake como. >> people love amal. she's really the selling point here. >> just picture it -- you and amal, wine in your hands, discussing current affairs, while her husband, quietly serves lunch. let's do a take, amal will be there and not even me. >> we have to enter. >> who's going to pay for the flight to italy in. >> george. >> go to omaze for a chance to win. >> go to omaze for a chance to win. see you from maybelline new york. ♪ for up to 24-hour sculpted brows. new, from the tattoo studio brow family. only from maybelline new york. moving? that's harder now because of psoriatic arthritis. but you're still moved by moments like this. don't let psoriatic arthritis take them away. taltz reduces joint pain and stiffness and helps stop the progression of joint damage. for people with moderate to severe psoriasis, 90% saw significant improvement. ta

ubs also expects an appreciation in risk off currencies here. that of course would mean the yen, flight to the yen, maybe the euro would have some problems after that. finally let's take a look here it & we'd be negativelily impacted by that of course the important thing is for themost moment the market is still acting like there is going to be some kind of different kind of outcome. it's not acting like the trade deal's going to get done but it's also not acting like everyone's going to walk away angry and there's going to be nothing and there's going to be new tariffs. it's hoping there's going to be maybe not a trade deal but no tariff hike and negotiations will continue. that's the way the market is acting right now we'll see if that's the outcome. guys, back to you. >> quick question, bob do you know how ubs put those numbers together, in other words, how they were able to figure out how much the market would fall exactly if there's a breakdown in talks >> they're doing the same things we're doing. art cashen and i have been doing it all th

bsf down 7%, ubs down 7%. those are off because they've gone ex dividend today. is falling on these trade concerns, and that's hitting, really assets beyond equities, as well. let's get bloomberg first word news with is the humphrey in dubai. desley: thanks. the u.s. says it's sending an unmistakable message to iran. it's the flowing an aircraft carrier to the middle east. national security advisor john bolton says the u.s. is it looking for war, but will respond to any attack. it's not immediately clear what prompted the move. north korea's recent weapons test may have included a ballistic missile. photos were released of kim jong-un overseeing a military exercise. experts say it appeared to be short range, so it wouldn't necessarily break kim's pledge to stop testing long-range weapons. robert mueller should not testify. that's according to president trump. this comes ahead of the congressional hearing with the special counsel. 15, tentatively set for may but nothing concerned yet. democrats have been eager for him to testify since the report became public. sch

25% slap of tariffs on all chinese goods imported to the u.s., that's another 7 percentage point by ubs economist with a full blown trade war or not can have a decisive impact on the fed and other central banks next move. jeffreys writes, if there is a breakthrough in the trade negotiations, a fed rate hike as soon as 2019 back on the table but the trade war between china and u.s. could force central banks into easing that is contingent upon how domestic economies fare in heightened global trade uncertainties here's what we know. producing tremendous volatility, market expectations for growth, for earnings and interest rates and that's not good for any market, that kind of volatility, unless of course >> steve liesman the bond investor on halftime report with scott talked about volatility in part but certainly weighed in on those trade tensions as well >> i think that you've got irresistible force meeting an immovable object where both premier of china and president of the united states want to come across that they prevailed and didn't give in which means to me that i think we're going

del sobre, corrio para alcanzarla, pero no lo logrÓ, cinco dÍas despuÉs con ayuda de un diario local ub0 aÑos. pudo conocer a su madre biolÓgica asÍ que un dÍa decidiÓ hacerse una prueba de and, los resultados no se hicieron esperar y el primer contacto fue con una tÍa, ambos lograron reunirse p hace unos dÍas y por prometieron mantene en contacto, la madre vive en el noroeste del paÍs >>> muchos han escuchado por la comida peruana, una comida que por su cercanÍa al mar cuenta con muchos platillos de marisco, un chef peruano nos cuenta >>> la velocidad de su cuchillo revela la dedicaciÓn de este maestro en la cocina peruana >>> y tenemos un animal muy simpÁtico que es un pulpo, este en particular tiene como cuatro a seis libras >>> , el primer paso es servirlo pa hervirlo para darle una buena consistencia >>> lo dejamos un par de veces antes de dejarlo caer para que los tentÁculos no se mezclen dentro hora, peruano al platillo >>> este es a la el aajÍ peruano >>> ajos, pimientos, salsa y orÉgano se mezclan y para empezar se arrai agrega aceite a poco mientras se licÚa, ahora el pulpo es

business insider reports that the ubs evidence lab is estimating self driving taxis could be a $2 trillion market by the year 2030, meaning ride hailing companies don't have to pay so many drivers and can offer services at a much cheaper rate. >>> oakland as have the longest winning streak in baseball after a memorial day win against the angels. the as fell behind early yesterday. the two teams play again tonight at the coliseum. >>> the boston bruins lead the stanley cup finals after a rough start in game one. they scored in the 1st period then early in the 2nd to take an early lead then ston scored in overdrive in the 3rd. boston won 4-2. game two is tomorrow night in boston. >>> and it seems everybody in boston is a bruins fan this time of year. this is the sculptor of legendary boston pops conductor arthur feidler. he is now wearing a really big boston bruins hockey helmet. it is 17 feet around the outside edge. the conductor's son says his dad would have approved. >>> major league basketball lost and all-star player. bill buckner died after losing his dattal with dementia. he was draf

ubs on friday said a quarter point gdp will be taken off because of tariffs sarah was mentioning somethe retail stocks at new lows. it's true, big names are down. why is this happening? 52-week close. 70% of footware in the united states is imported from china. 70% of the footwear comes from china. that's why some of these big names are getting impacted in the last couple of weeks what's going on, what's the question to ask that we need to have answers to? the most important question is this what is this about are we dealing with elections or just with trade as a separate issue? a lot of people believe we're essentially dealing with elections which means this could be going on for a long, long time if this goes on for a while, it's very hard to model that because the other big question is, are tariffs a permanent part of the u.s. economy or not we don't know the answer to that we don't know if the president is going to refuse to essentially take them off the table as part of the negotiations the chinese want that, he is resisting. the market is resetting lower because it cannot answer

that's more than the $700 million worth of losses lyft's investors have ub ear's deal was four timess large however. these two deals have spooked the market away from ride hailing companies and their billions of dollars in operating losses, questionable path to profitability. that's the key here that made it so hard for investors to value in this case, the bankers really missed the mark in terms of what the right pace would be despite pick iing a level toward the bottom now to some, that i signalled a cold deal, which caused momentum oriented investors to sit this out and retail or mom and pop investors didn't appear to fill that void. two sources close to the books say about 15% of f the allocation was given to retail more than a typical high profile tech deal. typically, underwriters wabt to give as little stock because they hold less conviction around the names they buy, but they didn't really do the job b in terms of kind of pushing that stock price higher we'll be watching today to see if morgan stanley is able to prop up the price. each ipo gives one underwriter, morgan stanley

. >> reporter: myanmar national airlines flight ub-103 took off from yangon for an hour and 20-minute flight to mandalay. in a statement, the airline said an emergency warning system went on when the front landing gear wouldn't go down. the pilot tried a backup procedure that also failed. he circles the tower twice so air traffic controllers could see whether the nose landing gear was down, dumped fuel to reduce the plane's weight. then put the plane down, landing with no front wheels. just last week, another landing incident in myanmar when a bangladeshi plane skidded and overran a runway in a rain storm. at least 5 of the 30 passengers injured. the aircraft seriously damaged. now again today, disaster averted. the pilot being hailed as a hero for a terrifying emergency landing that ended with everyone aboard safe. ron allen, nbc news. >>> at the white house today, president trump bracing for a new round of conflicts with democrats in congress, pushing back on their demands related to at least 20 investigations into his administration and his personal finances. matt bradley has more.

but rht now ube is a challenged-looking business and its growth is slowing. >> and there are questions abo how long it can continue to classify its workers as indt endent contractors and employees. and in fact kathleen this week uber drivers went oen a one-day strike. they were protesting their pay, working condigs. and you had an article today in the chronicle about how much drivers actually get paid. how much dohey make? >> the story was more about the discrepancy aboen what the par pays and what the driver makes. and it varies a lot. it's all over the map. no pun intended. that's because the drivers get paid primarily on time and distance. but passengers get charged whatever they charge for the fair. 50 to 60% of the fair. >> the driver could be decent or very little. >> what they make depends on hof n they work, when they work, etc. >> and theor l department on that issue of independent contractors, the labor department recently issued a letter that pretty much allows uber and lyft, economy companis to keep classifying workers as independent contractors and not employees. ould publ

that theyrned by ubs had a torturous first quarter.e we are, the americans are raising the white flag, get ready for another tough quarter. participatel do you in american or european banks? jpmorgan still stands out as a core position. that said, if you were to look at the performance of the systemically important financial institutions last year, the bulk of them had a bear market. share prices climbed more than 20%. that says a lot about how difficult banks find this climate of very low interest rates. when one thinks about the challenges for the german banks, it's a most extraordinary. the balloons bank provides money to the eurozone weaklings through the target system. penalizes the negative interest rates. no wonder they have such difficulty in mending their problems. nejra: how much could we see actually modeled? thee was a great column on bloomberg recently talking about how it might be getting difficult in some parts of investment banking but corporate and treasury services in u.s. banks is where the action is at. >> absolutel

ubs was saying that tobacco revenue excluding and gps, which is the next-generation product would decliney with vaping revenue expected to grow. we speak exclusively to the ceo of imperial brands. do not miss that interview later this morning. bit of breaking data from germany. this is probably the most forrtant bench mark we have where's europe. industrial production prices by 1.5%. penciled in a contraction of 1.5%. year on year, we are still in negative territory down at .9 of 1%. the market had penciled in a contraction of 2.6%. the eu cut germany's outlook saw euro areathey risks coming through. that data is a little bit better\ coming through. we are way to break some itv news. let me show you the board for the bond market. jamie dimon says get ready for this equilibrium to come in. bond prices come back a little. that is important. there's nothing wrong with the fed. we have dropped in terms of yields since last november. the yield curve inversion will get harder as the rates are low. over three basis points at the moment. bonds a little bit soft, you have equity markets in asia pl

there are metrics that you're talking about in terms of the costs because of china, and i think the ubsto that, and it's very minimal. so there's a lot of reasons why lulu and nike can still work even though they're in an area that a lot of people would say, you know what? footwear and apparel and the rest of it you have to stay away from it. >> when nike reported in march, the stock sold off 5%, 6% the day after and north american sales were worse than expected and to the point about pricing the ability to pass through prices and they did have expanding margins globally so that was good and to me do you want to buy a stock like this that's round tripping back towards that gap don't you want to let it come in a little bit i don't think you would have to buy it >> i would love to say yes, you and i both know and when you see options coming in and people start buying that's the trigger. i'm waiting for that opportunity and i see somebody putting big dollars down i want to follow along with something like that. >> the important thing is obviously, you can pick individual stocks and there i

stores at risk of closure joining me now are jay sole the retail analyst with ubs and our own courtneyeagan. great to have you both here. jay i'll begin with you. how many store closures would we expect anyhow in 2019, and how many more do you think we're going to see >> first, thanks for having me i think in a normal year without this trade war we'd be expecting about 2,000 to 3,000 store closures that's been the run rate over the last four years. the ubs evidence lab has a proprietary database where it looks at 524 soft line retailers which encompasses 115,000 stores what we've seen is it's been increasing about 2%. the store count rate is down about 2%. >> which already feels like a lot. that includes ones like gymboree obviously and different things the last couple of years it's already felt like a lot you're saying the pace would go from 2 to 3,000 to potentially 12,000 >> what people might not realize is the year-over-year change in the store count rate is negative 5.3% we've already seen a huge acceleration this year i don't think people are realizing, people don't realize how m

get to the end of the year, 85% probability for a rate cut january, 95% probability ubs pointing oution model not flashing red because there has been no tightening of credit standards by banks ubs says low policy rates and global qe make the yield curve inversion different this time. i know people get skeptical about that some fed officials are sympathetic with that idea several also expressed concern about the economic signal from the inversion. what do they do? fed unlikely to react i would say just to this inversion it is going to wait for more confirmation that the yield curve is sending a true recessionary signal before acting that would be my take. >> steve, is it crazy to talk about recession when consumer confidence is relatively high, the consumer in good shape, unemployment at the lowest it's been in decades or not >> conflicting signals in the economy? yes, there most definitely r the unemployment numbers are terrific the wage numbers are good. even the growth numbers, i don't think they're that shabby, right. you have that strong 3% number in the first quarter and i'm pre

steels downgraded to sel from neutral at ubs. analyst there cites the company's loss of market share. the a price target is $1 the lowest on wall street. the stock fell 6% to 15.40. lending club was upgraded to overweight from neutral a web bush. the analyst cites the potential for 12 to nn%l revenue growth. the price target is $5. shares rose 12% to $3.62. >> still ahead, hlawmakerse been calling for a number of hearings on boeing 737 max, but one person in particular has not been called to tes ♪ ♪ >>> there were some tense moments at a ge shareholder meeting in suburban new york. one retiree expressed his frustration with former ceo jefe immelt under w tenure the stock lost half of its vpue. larry c addressed the shareholders' call to halt the supplementary pension payments. >> there are finding such that serious misconduct has been uncovered and clawbacks would be in order. as you well know, t barter for clawbacks is high and it is that of serious smisconduct opposed to business decisions that did not g as anticipated or as ho

to take a ok at tonight's upgrades and downgrades and verizon was downgraded from neutral to buy at ubs, the analyst is skeptical of the 5g technology that will lift the stock in the short term given the rollout. the stock fell 2% today to 56.83. teva was downgraded from underperform to buy from bank of america merrill lynch and the analyst there cited the generic's drugmaker's, poesh you are to the opioid litigation currently under way the price target $9 and shares fell at $8.84. citigroup was upgraded to buy from neutral at goldman sachs. the analyst says city can grow revenues and increase returns thout interest rate hikes. the price target is $77, but thl stock f a fraction to 63.61. w comcas upgraded to buy from neutral at guggenheim. the analyst says broadband subscriber gains wil help margins improve. the price target is $52. the stock fell a fraction to $49.47. as you probably know, comcast is the parent company of cnbc which produces this program. >>> still ahead, are you covered? as hurricane season approaches insurance rates are climbing. ♪ ♪ ♪ >>> uber lost more than a bill

following's ub ipo, rework is planning to come public while ill deeply unprofitable as well. leave a fairly large amount of market value with disrupting the tech giant and not reflected in th market benchmark and not owned by low-cost mutual funds and etfs that have become by a large margin the most popular investor for retail investors. whether the action for the s&p 500 say good or bad thing for investors, it won't be clear until the market renders its verdict on the long- value of uber and its peers. for "nightly business report," i'm mike san tolly. >> marriott reports a sluggish start of the year and that's where we begin the market focus. the company reported weaker than expected revenue growth andtt marr described its business as stable thanks to additional fees and higher roomnd prices the company benefitted from a lower effective tax rate and shares finished the day down almost 3 >> via com, lower operating expenses, it shifted distribution fees and the decline in the core television business, but investors edre encouragy efforts to find growth beyond traditional tel

that future huawei phones will not be able to toess popular apps like you an googleaps -- like yout ubeoogle maps. what do poteial customers make of that? if you are looking at phones and one of them came without youtube, you would rule that out? >> straightaway. >> everything is at the tip of our fingertips. if something le maps wasn't available, it would seem more difficult and less accessible. simon: if you were mulling over whether to buy this phone or that phone if one doesn't come with maps or youtube? >> i would probably go for the other phone. simon: how important are those apps? >> very important to have access. you want your phone on the move. if they didn't offer that it would put meff using the phone completely. simon: a spokesman said that access to certain apps couldn't be guaranteed. >> just a question of what is going to happen in the future with updates. we are not sure how this i o going to pan. in the fullness of time, we will be more sure. simon: is this a security issue or trade war? >> absolutely not a security issue. this is all tied to the china-u.s. trade negoti

by the way, ubs also says $40 billion in sales are at risk. they are pointing to dire consequences of these tariffs being extended. what say you? >> oh, i think those are silly numbers. manufactured by people that don't want donald trump in the white house. those numbers are way too large. i will say this. there is some pain associated with the tariffs. i wouldn't be an economist in good standing if i didn't acknowledge that. but the pain is worth the gain. we simply can't afford to continue to be engaged with a system that pirates our technology and steals our future. i wonder if ubs factored in all the lost jobs in places like south bend where i was two weeks ago, unlike the mayor, and i saw really what is a very depressed circumstance. i wonder if they factored that in. all the retail sales that are lost because of depressed incomes in places like pennsylvania, ohio, indiana, wisconsin and minnesota. stuart: answer me this. have we yet seen any increase in inflation, any increase in prices, because of the tariffs which have already been pla

. >> reporter: today ub

with ubs discussion about combining asset management operations are said to have stalled.f the most hyped stocks of the decade is calling time on hong kong. this was the end of boom and bust. shares have been suspended since 2015. investors voted to take the company private next month. anergy plunged abruptly four years ago. billion before0 the stock tumbled. >> still to come, they had chosen online premium design platforms by her until capital firm. they have joined the 70 million u.s. dollars funding for this. this more than doubles the startup possibly ration to $2.5 billion. coming up on daybreak asia, we the ceointerview with of this company. bloomberg markets is next. this is bloomberg. ♪ paul: good morning. asia's major markets have just opened for trade. shery: and good evening in new york. sophie: welcome to daybreak asia. paul: our top stories, asian stocks are expected to follow u.s. equities down after the blacklisting of huawei on wall street. black boilingd over the trade -- blackmailing of the trade. shery: jay powell admits corporate debt is a concern but i

that can only be the gentleman from the south, david abney of ubs.e bond market. ♪ ♪ in the report, after that investigation, if we have had confidence the president clearly did not commit a crime we would have said so. we did not. the very careful words of the special counsel. a decorated career in vietnam, and his work with the fbi on the lockerbie disaster, and many special counsel's and prosecutions. mr. mueller leaves the justice department yesterday. summing up the zeitgeist on this moment yesterday, viviana hurtado. the world stopped at 11:00. viviana: it was a surprise announcement. a lot of people were trying to get clarity that came from mueller himself that they did not see in the report. he went back to the mueller report and said, these are my findings. he pushed it on the u.s. constitution that says anything that would need to go forward would be the task of u.s. congress. tom: clearly those are the headlines today, the zeitgeist moving forward, and now it is congress. let me go to the great silence of republicans. well that change? won

ubs cut its price target from $235 to $225.iphone forecasts and they blame weak demand from china. the stock now, $179. $3 down. >>> hormel, spam people, they cut their forecast. the ceo says prices are going up because of loss of hogs in china. that country dealing with swine fever outbreak there. hormel down 5%. >>> shoe carnival, their sales fell short. there's another retailer. down just a fraction, actually. just a fraction down. >>> check the price of oil. where are we this morning? whoa! ashley: big-time. stuart: below $60 a barrel. that speaks to me about a slowing world economy, pressure on america's economy, pressure from tariffs, pressure from trade. $59 a barrel on crude. the price of gold, i have no idea. where is it? up five bucks, $1280. not much move in gold recently. >>> facebook says it's stopped paying commissions to employees who sell political ads. is this a big deal? susan: yeah, it is a big deal because of the p.r. smear from 2015. this used to be a growth outlet for facebook. now they are backing away fr

e ube >> it's going to be a nightmare. >> reporter: drivers for uber and lyft plan to strike in several cities, om 7:00 to 9:00 a.m. in new york and even longer in other places, including los angeles, san francisco and atlanta. other cities could see strikes and rallies too. uber driver kevin ragu will shut off his app tomorrow. he says his pay has plummeted recently. >> i want better ntarnings. i wahem to acknowledge we have a big problem. >> reporter: many drivers say when you add in gas, car maintenance, nd insurance, ather costs, it's tough to make a living. the protests come with uber set to go public later this week. the company could be lu vaed at more than 90 billion. >> uber admits in its public filings that if driver dissatisfaction increases, then th're not going to be able to recruit drivers and that's going to be a real problem for the company. >> reporter: uber says it's working to improve the driver experience, whether it's more consistent earnings, stronger insurance protections or fully funded four-year degrees for drivers or their families. lyft says drivers' hourly ea

we have a ubs survey which is interesting.irst of all, it highlights how much cash there still is out there that could be deployed into the market in a possible selloff. the idea here is that the 's assets were 23% in cash. how much of this is cultural? in asia, people tend to save more money, and china in particular. still, people are optimistic, risk.ere is maybe.ome bias there, david: and latin america are the ones who like their region the best. lisa: although cash is still pretty high there, too. show if also goes to you are happy with your country, is it because you think you're going to have a different government, or because we are doing pretty well? also the structure is probably working for them. david: but they are seeing their optimistic, but sitting on a lot of cash at the same time. lisa: interesting to see the fact that there is optimism, and yet still a lot of cash out there. david: thank you so much to lisa abramovitz, joining us today. alix: we are hearing from the eu in their global growth forecast. the big

the budgetary impact issuing city fleet vehicles and throughout our history zip car has help limit ub necessary trips and reduce parking and lower vehicle ownership space and operational expenses. former mayor of new york, michael bloomberg highlighted the impact on his city's finances saying it's taken major steps to streamlining critical operations meaning municipal fleet. the city saves tens of millions on the fleet of more than 25,000 vehicles by using technology purchased by zip car. we partner with many agencies represented here today already. and many more across north america. we are proud partners with the mta, central shop, city hall, sfo, parks and rec and others and zip car believes the future of mobility will be with partners like this. >> commissioner: thank you very much. any other public comment? seeing none, public comment is closed. i'd mike to make a -- make a motion to file that item. take that without objection. madame clerk, call item 2. >> clerk: hearing on the annual overtime report and the related structural budget impact for the city departments with the high

separate recent reports also mentioned several potential suitors, including allianz and ubs.ig week for german banks with both commerzbank and deutsche bank holding agms in the wake of their collapsed merger talks annetta, who is joining us in frankfurt this morning has been covering these stories for quite some time. now, annetta, you have spoken with wufrt executive board members of the bundas bank i'm cure wrus what he had to y say. >> actually, he was saying that it kind of is positive, but the banks didn't merge just because it is a good idea, like in terms of having a bigger bank. he was saying that in ermz it of consolidation, things have really made sense, but why don't we, first of all, take a listen and then speak a little bit about the wider picture for the german banks take a listen of what he had to say about the consolidation efforts in the german banking industry >> the large scale consolidation is more difficult. finally, it's the institute that's just -- there is the results case, because it's reasonable, but it makes sense, and in previous discussions, there

in discussionis with ubs about combining management operations. said to have stalled. kong.calling time on hong it became the very emblem of boom and bust. investors voted to take the company private next month. once the world's biggest solar company, hanner g plunged -- ago.gy plunged four years it was worth $40 billion before the stock tumbled. shery ahn: south korea has held a trade fair that is seen as a barometer for trade with the outside world. the event in pyongyang looked bigger than ever thanks to a large turnout by chinese companies. tesla shares have seen a selloff of over 20% following this than $2raising of more billion in capital. stock once bullish on the but is warning that tesla faces a code red situation as it tries to make a profit. profitability does not come in will have to raise $1 billion-$2 billion more in capital. shery ahn: for more on this story, let's go to san francisco. what tops the agenda right now for investors? >> how many cars tesla is going to deliver in the second quarter. the company has given guidance that t

other side of the aisle, they are behaving like a coverup caucus for this president, a subsidiary of ub the trump counges. we will not allow presidential dictatorship to take hold. this is a democracy and separate and co-equal branches of government and we are going to uphold that principle by any means necessary. >> volunteered to come in here today. u had talked about how staff questioning goes. are you equating this what happened today to an impeachment hearing? ms. jackson lee: my colleague indicated this process was used ring the calf -- kavanaugh hearings. this is the point we are making. this is allowing under house rules. the house and the senate can discern and decide their own rules and best approach to draw evidence or information so we can make the appropriate decision. let me say, we are writing legislation regarding what happened in volume one and volume two. how incredulous of all of the contacts with russians there was no legal basis other than collusion or conspiracy. why wasn't there the interacting with russian operatives, enemies of the american people and that that

in new report is out from ubs, downgrading the previous rating that contributed to the overall sectorall hit in terms of share prices. all of that is coming together. >> what does this do? probably doesn't have much of a domestic market but it needs good people in key positions. it will be harder and harder. >> stock options back five years ago, they keep investing. each time, they are worth less. you look to the friends and buddies and a competitor, and share prices were going up. clearly, it is obvious. the problem deutsche bank would be facing to retain talent is certainly something the share price is exacerbating. vonnie: privacy president trump all?does that come up at it will be a side thing. >> anti-money laundering and has had a thing of the past but then, things like keep popping up and bring the issue back to the fore. it is something extremely hard to value. how do you put a value on that kind of legal risk? contribute to that share price and for as long as these things hang over the bank, that will be difficult. >> talking about the asset division, long-term, that is a bus