paul donovan from ubs wealth management.ing up, the swiss regulator escalates the spying scandal of thed to the ouster ceo of credit suisse. this is bloomberg. ♪ the financial regulator is escalating a probe into credit suisse. they opened enforcement proceedings against the bank on formerng employees. the scandal led to the ouster of the former ceo tidjane thiam. does the latest announcement actually bring us with the scandal? thanks, francine. you will remember this dates back to just about a year ago when we discovered that credit suisse had been spying on a former banker working for its arrival ubs. we had gone through about a year now of their bank trying to put this to bed and move away from this reputationally, but now we will have a couple more months of this because the proceedings open by the regulator will take a couple of more months. the bank will have to contend with further results. finma tends to be a little less powerful than other regulators in other cases in other countries. they don't necessarily have the

paula donovan joins us with ubs -- paul donovan joins us with ubs. upside surprise has been china. i want to go back to the ubs heritage from years ago and the ubs expertise. i do not want to know about hong kong or shanghai or beijing. what does ubs see and the rest of china we never speak of? paul: the chinese economy we saw this morning, production is kicking back in. china is an interesting comparison to what we are seeing in the u.s. and europe. the u.s. and europe, what has happened is consumers save money during lockdown, does lockdowns have ended they have started to spend it. that is what consumers do. in china, the consumer was less able to save money. the domestic economy was on the back foot. unless you are middle-class you do not have savings to spend. what is now happening is we are seeing global consumer demand picking up and that is working its way up the supply chain and we are seeing better production numbers coming out of china, beating expectations. i do not have a lot of faith the expectations are accurate. the range of forecast

nvidia will buy arm, and there is a report that ubs is exploring a merger with credit suisse. both banks declined to comment. and boris johnson prepares to send his brexit lawbreaking proposals to parliament. the justice secretary warns he could quit over the issue. investors now await the boe rate decision on thursday. good morning and welcome to "bloomberg surveillance." i'm francine lacqua in london. tom keene is in new york. tom, there is a lot of news for monday money. tom: huge news flow. francine: -- there is a lot of news for monday morning. tom: huge news flow. francine: i'm very focused on the swiss bank. both banks have not talked about it yet, but huge news should it come to fruition. a blog from switzerland, surprised to see the news come from th the blog. gently axel weber nudging this dialogue forward? francine: it is a publication that doesn't break that much news that often, which is why we are taking it with a pinch of salt, but we understand it was well sourced, and this will be a conversation spearheaded by the two chairman of ubs and credit suisse combined

is the ubs chief strategist.uld we be read into what this means or are these all idiosyncratic stories? bhanu: i think you should be reading in, because to the extent that these are signals of pressure towards reducing cost. i don't think this is representing the top of the cycle very much. these are these idiosyncratic stories. there a pre-election push to get deals done? >> yes, there probably is. after this you don't really know what kind of environment you will have in terms of trade and taxes. in terms of the economy it's possible that you see much higher investment next year. it may not come in m&a but it may come in investment because of increased spending. the congressp in and white house could see much higher spending. the economy could be much better than expected. the s&p -- those could be companies that could be taxed. you will see companies in the s&p going for greater deals. for the euro economy investment will be much stronger next year. kailey: that is on the u.s. side, but what about the china si

michael cloherty from ubs. 2020 is work from home and even the strategists at ubs do not wear ties.t is the world we are in. remember where ubs had the uniform guide of what they had to wear? tom: we notice this among fed officials. chairman powell spoke at jackson hole. jonathan: was there jackson hole last week? tom: michael mckee did a series of interview. tieless is a look. so i coulded my tie follow with mr. kaplan of dallas. it really works for radio. i have to tie it back up because we're going to a spacex launch in seven minutes. jonathan: what it you tie on tv and do something for radio. explain to them how you do up a bowtie perfectly. this will be brilliant on radio. tom: i have done this on video. the way you do a bowtie is you tight just like you are tying in ice skate. that is all there is to it. these bowties are fancy french ones and they are easier to tie, to be honest. jonathan: what if you have never tied in ice skate? tom: that is a problem. it is a british thing. in the real world, lots of people know that, and it is just like tying in ice skate. jonathan: the r

would it make sense for credit suisse and ubs to merge? wealth management business, a lot of where technology is changing banking, joint investment cost, reducing duplication, there is a lot of synergy. you look at the difference and the acquisition is not a merger. think -- ubs-credit suisse is knocking on two times gdp. they have a problem with ubs as big as they were and the two big to fail concerns. reasons, it makes sense. between these when there are other combinations and potential, probably less so. just to make sure i expecting, you are commerzbank and deutsche bank to merge. cross-borderting mergers? what is theoking at market enticing banks to do? you look at the banks trending at the biggest discount. are investors, the screens pretty forward. mill willk, the rumor start again and they will have spent the whole time coming up with combinations they can do. deutsche bank will think we need to do something domestically. we cannot speculate on which names will get together. if you look at what the market is telling you and you sta

ubs and credit suisse stocks are moving as you see.dia deal helping fuel markets in asia overnight. has markets higher across the board with the nikkei average in japan up two thirds of a percent, the kospi index up one and a third percent in korea. the owner of the new york sports club filed for bankruptcy protection. we have details. >> town sports international holdings says it's unable to keep up with debt payments after the covid-19 shutdowns. the company's assets and liabilities were in a range of 500 million to $2 billion. that's according to a court filing. town sports operates about 185 fitness centers along the east coast including 99 new york sports clubs. and delta airlines is looking to tap the bond market to survive the coronavirus pandemic. the company hoping to raise $6.5 billion backed by its frequent flier program. delta, like other u.s. airlines, needs to raise money as it burns through at least $27 million a day. checking on delta airlines in the he premarket, is up almost 2%. and amazon hiring another 100,000 worke

coming up, vassili serebriakov, ubs fx and macro strategist. on.ember 11, 2020, 19 years we remember on bloomberg tv and radio. this is "bloomberg surveillance ." ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. president trump won't extend the deadline for tiktok's u.s. operations to be sold. the president said if bytedance can't sell the u.s. unit issa temer 15th, -- unit by september 15, it will be shut down. officials have been debating whether to extend the deadline. bloomberg has learned a deal was unlikely by next week because new chinese regulations complicated negotiations with macro soft and oracle. the fda s with microsoft and dru -- with microsoft and oracle. the fda will require more data than usual about how well a vaccine shot works, trying to reassure the public that they will not given to political pressure to approve a vaccine prematurely. tesla plans to ship cars made at its factory in shanghai to other markets in asia and europe. bloomberg has learned that china built tesla model threes intended for delivery outside the c

well,ologies to max as ubs global wealth management cio.y martin says it's happy with how sales are recovering in china, adding it is likely to be back to pre-pandemic levels by the year end. bloomberg television caught up with the china president, michael paying, at the beijing auto show. michael: we had a very happy q2, in particular now. it is almost the last to offer. that ifwe are confident we are lucky enough and we can make up the last -- lasting into the q1 in january, february, and march. >> you think you can get back to pre-pandemic levels of sales? michael: if you were looking at the monthly sales, we are already there. in most of the last few months, it's more than previous years. it is may be something to do with consumption. purchasing power. q1,e did not get a use in anded into power in q2 q3. i am fully optimistic. >> is there any sense that your high net worth clients are feeling the squeeze now from a slowing economy? michael: difficult to say. even in bad economies, you always have to have people who make good money. that

reinhard cluse, chief economist for europe at ubs.will stay with us on the program. 7:20 in london. coming up on the european market open, the e.u. considers suing the u.k.. boris johnson's plans to breach the brexit divorced deal have rattled leaders in brussels. we are live in the belgian capital. that's next. this is bloomberg. ♪ anna: welcome back to the european market open. 40 minutes to go until the start of the european equity trading day. the european union is considering legal action against the u.k. over plans to breach the brexit withdrawal agreement. according to a document seen by bloomberg, the e.u. believes it may have a case even before the u.k.'s internal market bill is written into domestic u.k. law. let's discuss with our guests, reinhard cluse, at ubs. when you look at the conversations that are taking place across the channel, trying to get to a trade deal before the end of this year, if not before, what are the percentage chances you put on certain outcomes? what are you assuming when you look at the u.k. econom

there have been rumors again recently about ubs and credit suisse., that would raise regulatory and other issues. but maybe that would be something that would fall under that kind of category. the u.s. is different. politics plays a role your it and when the president says something about a deal, the stuff people who deal with these things think about it. but it really works out in a much more granular, technical way in the u.s. it is done by people who are largely apolitical. i know that is hard to believe. but in many cases, these are career staff people who are trying to do the right thing, rather than follow the political news. great to catch up with you. robert profusek, jones day, head of mergers and acquisitions. we go back a number of weeks now when we had the tech hearings on capitol hill, and was a facebook argument from mark zuckerberg. we need to be big because we need to compete with china. if you want our values to dominate, then allow us to be as large as we are. a week later, microsoft in the running to buy tiktok. i know that story h

all right, ubs head of economics and chief china economist.on the chinese data dump later on. we will also be tackling the broader asia economy. adb chief economist will join us as well. next we take a look at a small business sector, how it is faring amid the pandemic with the ceo of an accounting platform software. this is bloomberg. ♪ asia.s is daybreak the first word headlines. deal faces aacle security review that will also need the blessing of president trump. any deal also requires us on our from china. oracle will make an investment in a restructured tiktok rather than buying a business outright. ,t least two shareholders sequoia capital would take stakes in the new business. meanwhile, recommending americans reconsider travel to hong kong, the state department raised its business and advisory based on application of the national security law. u.s. citizens in hong kong are strongly advised to avoid demonstrations. the move comes as u.s.-china ties remain strained over the coronavirus, the treatment of uighur nordics and beijing's incr

we say major banks, talk about citigroup, about morgan stanley, about bank of america, about ubs. here in new york city. so again, barring something, a vaccine that's 100% effective, usually vaccines are not, we should point out, we would be lucky to get 70% effective, barring if the pandemic picks up steam, this could be pushed out even further. this is all data and virus dependent and vaccine dependent. but we're talking about a long drawn-out process of people coming back to new york and here's the interesting thing. possibly you could say this kills new york city real estate, right. the one thing that may save new york city real estate, at least in the short term, is social distancing. if you have to bring 50%, you want to bring 50% of your work force in, you're in your own office, if you have social distancing, you need a larger office, like a manhattan headquarters of say ubs or jpmorgan to handle 50%, just because of social distancing. the real question becomes long-term. the banks sit around and say okay, a lot of people that work from home, they don't need to be in the of

see what ubs market has to say we want to hear from you elon musk takes to twitter to ease concerns ahead of the first ever battery day going after one company that is very close to home >> we are closing to a working vaccine than you might think so says biotech expert here with us on this tuesday, september 22 this is cnbc. good morning good afternoon good evening welcome wherever in the world you may be watching. it is a jam packed show today nasdaq futures with an implied open actually in the green this is all ahead of another downed day and major average the dow dropping another 500 points for the third day in a row. the first four-day losing streak since september. the nasdaq is on pace for the worst month since march. index now down 8.5% since the first. if we lose more than 10.8%, it would be the worst monthly performance for the nasdaq worse than the march lockdown month. it looks like nelson may have nailed it. he sent out a note saying the nasdaq could fall 20% because it was just too overextended. >> speaking of all of the stocks in the index, only 10 are higher in september th

the competition is putting pressure on ubs which benefited from a first mover advantage in china.king a said to be partial sale of its $6.3 billion china's company. let's get more from arotech reporter in tokyo. what do we know so far russian mark -- what do we know so far? >> we know they are already freighto sell their business in europe and looking at was do with their autonomous unit as well. this amounts to a considerable chunk of change. unfortunately, because of the coronavirus, the valuation of those stakes have been falling. they had to marked down the valley by about $2 billion. >> huber had to sell their business to their rival. in the end, getting this equity, why would uber want to sell these stakes in their rivals right now? softbank the scenes of , they have been pushing to unload the stakes. they are quite eager to get it higher. it still trade below the $45 ipo price. the argument is that markets are basically discounting the value of those stakes. tom: softbank is the biggest stock owner and the ride-hailing space. >> they will have massive write-downs across the

this time between credit suisse and ubs. we are on the cusp of this fed meeting, so the markets watching closely central policy at this stage. telecoms, insurance and financial services >>> chinese retail rose in the month of august and beating analyst expectations industrial output accelerated to 5.6% the fastest in eight months. >> data out of china today tells us a few things, mainly that they are bouncing back from the virus quicker from all three indicators beat forecasts. also that the recovery is now becoming more consumer led than by fixed asset that is because retail sales grew for the first time. we knew consumption has been lagging amid lingering worry and the virus forcing many people to tighten their belts. this does suggest that consumer confidence is picking up we have seen evidence in that in a jump to auto sales in the month of august. so adding to signs now that chinese consumer is more willing to part with their cash. out for the fifth straight month, so continuing to give the economy more boost the indust

let's talk about europe because ubs, what a spoiler. what is going on?> this is due to the pickup in virus cases in europe and the accompanying restrictions that come with this. ubs saying you are seeing a plateau in the economic picture which could have downside momentum for european earnings. see modestu could downside from the stoxx 600 index although analysts including nick nelson have targetted the year-end for the index. 340 is a drop of 4.4% from friday's close. would beany upside from relative valuation to bonds and not absolute ones and over the past 30 years, europe has underperformed u.s. stocks during bull market corrections but this time, there has been slight outperformance. in terms of where they had with defenses, you should be looking at pharma and retail stocks and some of their top picks in the region include the swiss multinational pharma company novartis, the german supplier and the super market chain in the u k -- in the u.k. manus: thanks very much. juliette saly in singapore. you saw her imagery before we went to break. she leads

according to ubs, this really signifies that investors need to be diversified beyond the benchmarks. cheaper names likely to lead the next leg higher. those companies they say are ones that reflect the new economy. they point out things like companies related to 5g, renewable energy, and in general that is where you want to be and that will prepare investors for changes in indexes to come. manus? manus: dani, thank you very much. dani burger with the latest. that is that. $5.5 billion joint lead deal between apollo and adnoc. big deal, big day. zeltere: dr. sultan and in one day. if you missed those interviews, had to bloomberg.com. ♪ anna: welcome to "bloomberg markets european open." cash trade is under an hour away. trump in kenosha. the president condemns anti-police rhetoric after protesters were fatally shot. joe biden accuses him of failing to meet the moment. the euro breaks 120.

still with us is jason draho, head of america's asset allocations of ubs.m trying to figure out what the pricing is around the election and how much volatility we could potentially see around this point. it is clear the market is anticipating we will see an elongated period around the election of volatility. what is your best case and worst-case scenao for the markets? jason: i think the best case is we get clarity. resolution in the the same thing would apply to the senate. if you can wake-up november 4 and know what the outcome is, you can plan and anticipate going forward. that would be the best case of scenario. what does this mean for taxes as pillagin policy changes, hunter biden, they are worried it would biden they are worried it would go up. the worst case situation is if you get this dragging on for weeks. some people think it could be a tie in terms of the electoral college and congress has to nominate the president. that would be into january. that would be the worst case scenario which seems unlikely, but anything that i lon elongates or questi

it feels awful >> shannon, ubs says it's not the time to sell tech. we don't think it's time to sell or it's in bubble territory. you can take apple you can take tech. what do you make of what ubs is saying we we note that apple has come down a lot but it's created an entry point. >> i think it's down 18, 19% from the high in september, scott. apple. i agree. i think there is a differentiation between all of tech and the tech that folks should be a little bit concerned about as far as the sustainability of the growth that they've had you mentioned some of those names earlier like zoom. i think the other problem is these flows out of stock and a lot of them have come out of the large cap tech names over the last week, they are going to places that are not long term good sources for -- good outcomes for those capitals. you think about bonds, cash and gold going into next year if we see inflation, it does feel like there's upward pressure there. those asset classes will not tli deliver the returns that people are look for a lot of those companies pay a d

let's talk about that with julie hudson at ubs. that specific corporate story around shell into the bigger conversation around how oil companies, what , they ares ioc's trying to become energy businesses of a broader variety. how does the esg lens for you that kind of move from big oil? julie: thank you for your very interesting question. there are probably two different perspectives in the esg area on this topic. it is clear and energy transition has to be made. next year is likely to be a big year for climate change because we have prop 26 coming up, the intergovernmental panel on china change -- climate change coming up. i think oil as a sector knows it has to adapt. as far as reaction of esg players, two kinds of reactions. some experts will decide they will not invest. others might look at it from a more transitional perspective and perhaps take the view the oil industry has industrial tow-how, geological know how bring about the transition picture. anna: you see different views taking hold within the esg community. we heard t

ubs doubling its price target to $325 they expect tesla to quadruple the number of cars sold by 2025.say battery day could enable technology. they argue tesla needs more than that to energize shares. the stock is trading above ubs new price target >>> apple will issue new rules for the app store that directly impacted game streaming services those shares did not react positively all three stocks falling on the news you saw apple down 2.5%. microsoft down 1.6%. the game makers also trading near session lows. that does it for us here on the exchange don't go anywhere. the auto sector has been hit hard by the pandemic and the road to recovery will be long. we'll look at the risks ahead and whether the boom in electric at o can recharge things th'sn "power lunch "see you after this break. what if you could have the perspective to see more? at morgan stanley, a global collective of thought leaders offers investors a broader view. ♪ we see companies protecting the bottom line by putting people first. we see a bright future, still hungry for the ingenuity of those ready for the next challeng

ubs nike analyst jay seoul is with us on the quarter jay, thanks for the time this morning. >> thanks having me. >> where do you think the street was slow to raels just how the quarter was shaping up >> i think one area in particular was the amount of leverage that nike got on fixed costs. nike's guidance said they're going to have about 300 basis points or so of improvement in their operating margin on the sga line that's unusual for nike. they said their sales are up 10% but expenses up basically flat that was a huge surprise and a big driver of upside attorneyings i think the big reason the stock is up this morning >> interesting is that -- how novel is that cost discipline and could it translate to other areas that we might not be as material, for example, but that we've talked about in the past, the acquisition of new talent contracts, endorsements, that kind of thing? >> well, i think it's going to be very sustainable type of leverage i think they are going to continue to see efficiencies i think one reason we're seeing the big expense leverage right now is that nike is finally

we're seeing goldman sachss, for example, upgraded at ubs, really a surge in trading volume that helpack: we'll be watching carefully. banks are the cheapest sector in the s&p 500. >>> coming up, what merrill lynch wealth advisers are telling nest clients. andy sieg joins me next. so you're a small business, or a big one. you were thriving, but then... oh. ah. okay. plan, pivot. how do you bounce back? you don't, you bounce forward, with serious and reliable internet. powered by the largest gig speed network in america. but is it secure? sure it's secure. and even if the power goes down, your connection doesn't. so how do i do this? you don't do this. we do this, together. bounce forward, with comcast business. noand if you're troubledan a liby falls and bleeds,ners. worry follows you everywhere. over 100,000 people have left blood thinners behind with watchman. it's a one-time, minimally invasive procedure that reduces stroke risk-- and bleeding worry--for life. watchman. it's one time. for a lifetime. (groans) hmph... (food grunting menacingly) when the food you love doesn't love yo

we're seeing goldman sachss, for example, upgraded at ubs, really a surge in trading volume that helpack: we'll be watching carefully. banks are the cheapest sector in the s&p 500. >>> coming up, what merrill lynch wealth advisers are telling nest clients. andy my name is joe. i'm a sustainability science researcher at amazon. climate change is the fight of our generation. the biggest obstacle right now is that we're running out of time. amazon now has a goal to be net zero carbon by 2040. we don't really know exactly how we are going to get there. it's going to be pretty hard. but one way or another we're going to reduce our carbon footprint to net zero. i want my son to know that i tried my hardest to make things better for his generation. (groans) hmph... (food grunting menacingly) when the food you love doesn't love you back, stay smooth and fight heartburn fast with tums smoothies. ♪ tum tum-tum tum tums with tums smoothies. keeping your oysters busihas you swamped. you need to hire. i need indeed indeed you do. the moment you sponsor a job on indeed you get a shortlist of qualit

we're seeing goldman sachss, for example, upgraded at ubs, really a surge in trading volume that helpack: we'll be watching carefully. banks are the cheapest sector in the s&p 500. >>> coming up, what merrill lynch wealth advisers are telling nest clients. andy i'm hector. i'm a delivery operations manager in san diego, california. we were one of the first stations to pilot a fleet of electric vehicles. we're striving to deliver a package with zero emissions into the air. i feel really proud of the impact that has on the environment. we have two daughters and i want to do everything i can to protect the environment so hopefully they can have a great future. how did you come up withd opened all these backstories?tudio. i can to protect the environment i got help from a pro. my financial professional explained to me all the ways nationwide can help protect financial futures in peytonville. nationwide can help the greens get lifetime income because their son kyle is moving back home and could help set up a financial plan for mrs. garcia. and he explained how nationwide can help mr. paisl

we're seeing goldman sachss, for example, upgraded at ubs, really a surge in trading volume that helpack: we'll be watching carefully. banks are the cheapest sector in the s&p 500. >>> coming up, what merrill lynch wealth advisers are telling nest clients. andy age-related macular degeneration may lead to severe vision loss. so the national eye institute did 20 years of clinical studies on a formula only found in preservision. if it were my vision, i'd ask my doctor about preservision. it's the most studied eye vitamin brand. if it were my vision, i'd look into preservision. only preservision areds2 contains the exact nutrient formula recommended by the nei to help reduce the risk of moderate to advanced amd progression. i have amd. it is my vision so my plan includes preservision. so when it comes to screening for colon cancer, don't wait. because when caught early, it's more treatable. i'm cologuard. i'm noninvasive and detect altered dna in your stool to find 92% of colon cancers even in early stages. tell me more. it's for people 45 plus at average risk for colon cancer, not high

ubs may look for somebody elsewhere the but bit of it is less pronounced. maria: all right. say and the banking system in europe of course has been troubled for some time. let me bring in jon hilsenrath. go ahead, jon. jon: hey, mohammed. i've got two questions for you. one quickly is we've been talking a lot on this program about state and local governments and whether they're under stress and are going to be cutting back this fall. so my first question is are you seeing that, is that a problem? my second is, looking forward past the election, what does the fed look like in a biden administration for a trump administration? who does the new you president or the current president choose to run that place and does it matter to the markets who that person is going to be? >> so on the first issue, -- and good morning, jon. on the first issue, the major challenge we face in the u.s. economy is income support. the labor market is not doing as well as it should be. we saw the jobless claims, initial claims number. and with the stalemate in congress there's also less income support

we're seeing goldman sachss, for example, upgraded at ubs, really a surge in trading volume that helpack: we'll be watching carefully. banks are the cheapest sector in the s&p 500. >>> coming up, what merrill lynch wealth advisers are telling nest clients. telling nest clients. andy (groans) hmph... (food grunting menacingly) when the food you love doesn't love you back, stay smooth and fight heartburn fast with tums smoothies. ♪ tum tum-tum tum tums how did you come up withd opened all these backstories?tudio. i got help from a pro. my financial professional explained to me all the ways nationwide can help protect financial futures in peytonville. nationwide can help the greens get lifetime income because their son kyle is moving back home and could help set up a financial plan for mrs. garcia. and he explained how nationwide can help mr. paisley retire early and spend more time with his pal, peyton. and their new band. exactly! yeah. don't forget the band. i haven't. aso the national eye instituteon did 20 years of clinical studies on a formula only found in preservision. if it were

we're seeing goldman sachss, for example, upgraded at ubs, really a surge in trading volume that helpack: we'll be watching carefully. banks are the cheapest sector in the s&p 500. >>> coming up, what merrill lynch wealth advisers are telling nest clients. telling nest clients. andy ( ♪ ) ♪ i need it so bad don't call it a hobby. it's way more than just a job. this is how we live every single day. can we go and play? (roaring of engines) ( ♪ ) ♪ i needed to try ( ♪ ) ♪ needed to fall ( ♪ ) ♪ i needed your love ♪ i'm burning away ♪ ♪ i need never get old ♪ i'm burning away ♪ so you're a small businor a big one. you were thriving, but then... oh. ah. okay. plan, pivot. how do you bounce back? you don't, you bounce forward, with serious and reliable internet. powered by the largest gig speed network in america. but is it secure? sure it's secure. and even if the power goes down, your connection doesn't. so how do i do this? you don't do this. we do this, together. bounce forward, with comcast business. as someone with hearing loss i know what a confusing and frustrating experience gettin

the man that coined the phrase irrational ex ub rans has down played the outlook >> basically the resultsre a huge increase in entitlements that are crowding out private investment and productivity growth my major concern is inflation. it hasn't emerged in any significant way yet. that's the area where i think our problems lie >> on the data front, u.s. weekly jobless claims came in at 884,000, worse than expected sitting above 13.3 million meanwhile, claims under the unemployment assistance concerns >>> the senate has failed to pass the new stimulus package after not winning any votes from across the siel. the bill would have included a trimmed down extension of unemployment assistance and new small business loen loans leaving out some major social assistance measures. we have this report. >>> we'll bring you kayla's report later let me bring you to another story. u.s. president donald trump and joe biden will pause their campaigns to remember the 9/11 terrorist attacks. we'll go now to washington, d.c. >> reporter: good morning, yes this is the 19th anniversary of 9/11 this will be a ra

gold, ubs,the -- they were basically saying the fed's credibility is on the line. gold up 1.1%.any. they expect the economic fallout from covid-19 is going to be smaller than originally projected. theyes told bloomberg updated their forecast. the economy minister is set to present the new outlook at 10:00 a.m. u.k. time the economy in europe's largest economy has had a rebound. deepak mehra's head of investments at commercial bank of dubai. this is a narrative which gathers strength in china, in the united states, looking at the dallas fed recovery numbers, and now in germany. how does that change your perception of european risk in currency or equity? we seem to have just a momentary lapse of communication. at that momentum and europe -- see what peter has to say this morning. the euro has been on a tear. this is all about dollar weakness, not necessarily euro strength. is that the view that we walk into these numbers with? annmarie: i have been looking at this recent bloomberg survey that says, what pain level can markets withstand? they say the threshold is around 130. we are

see what ubs market has to say we want to hear from you elon musk takes to twitter to ease concerns aheadt ever battery

callsanother one of the you are watching today, ubs.ld be more downside risk for european equities. explain. because you are getting a tick up in virus cases. that comes with accompanying restrictions. that is going to weigh negatively for european companies. they have reiterated their call for the stoxx 600 euro index to be 340 by the years end. they say any upside here is from relative valuations to bonds, is absolute ones, and ubs looking at a defensive hit. of the stocks include the swiss multinational fund company thertis and of course supermarket chain in the u.k.. anna: what about brexit? how is that being interpreted? turning into calls on the pound. the pound is up 0.1%. >> yes, we saw the pound move higher ahead of talks. the increasing likelihood you will see an imprint for a brexit deal has houses turning positive on the pound. we had a call from the chief investment manager at bluebay saying you will see the pound euro.0.88 against the rabobank sees it at 2% to 89 pounds -- 89 pence by october. cut short any relief rally. i

ubs, the first debate, everyone loses. this is bluebird. ♪ -- bloomberg. ♪ ♪ anna: good morning.pean open. i'm anna edwards. the cash trade is less than an hour away. here are your top headlines. next to the peaceful transition. donald and joe biden clash on everything as the first presidential debate dissents into a chaotic core of insults. we are 34 days away from the u.s. election.

and ub. -- u.k.. we are not working for this not at all. we're not working for a hard rexit, but we need to have a trustful partner to have a deal. >> we heard today from the e.c.b. that they revised upwards their 2020 forecast but they see the stabilization of any rebounds next year. what is your assessment of the european economy right now? what letter of recovery are we in? in general, a similar analysis, the e.c.b., our evaluation, we will have our winter forecast beginning of norv. our evaluation is that we have a rather fast recovery, butcially in june an july perhaps according to high frequency data and new data, is speed of the recovery slowed down in recent weeks, in august. so i think we still have in front of us, uncertainty the d the strength and speed of recovery and our task is to bring forth confidence in the markets in the city and business communities. and this is what with our recovery plans we will try do n the next weeks because uncertainty is still there and we are not sure of the speed of the recovery which is underway

flow getters, switzerland with $80 million of inflows, two of the big products that received them were ubs these were institutional products. it is hard to look at the top inflow getter and say this is a big play toward switzerland. i should say if we are seeing any play toward switzerland, it does have a lot of quality cyclical names which are more attractive as we enter this period after a bit of a rocky week last week. looking at france, this is an interesting one as well. $14 million net inflows over the past five days despite the fact that they have had a rising coronavirus case count. we are seeing spain near the bottom of the list, spain of course another one of these european countries that started to see a greater outbreak. when it comes to the united kingdom, there are a lot of etf plays you could do with the u.k. if you are concerned about a hard brexit or just want to play the volatility that comes with that. you have currency tracking etf's, pound hedging etf's. investors staying on the sidelines over the past week, perhaps scared to dip income or rather just holding on to wha

ubs, positive developments the economic recovery and fed policy will be more important in determining valuations in the stock market than the outcome of november 3rd sort of sounds familiar. >> the data is improving was it helped by the stimulus? of course. that's not the point that compares to 7.7 in april. that's also really impressive. it's still down year over year but it's impressive. the stimulus is working. it's going to be lead to better economic growth. we're not going to see 30% gdp growth forever we're not. i still think you're going to see a recovery that means better profits. that means the market isn't as expensive on next year's numbers as people think, in my view. >> josh, what do you make of the commentary that i read out david, no matter who wins the election, fed is the biggest issue and that's still with you. if kevin wants to put money to work, i do believe residential real estate, specifically single family homes will out perform the stock market going forward and even if you look at this particular draw down, the s&p is 6.5% off its high. we are at a level of ho

nvidia will buy arm, and there is a report that ubs is exploring a merger with credit suisse.clined to comment. and boris johnson prepares to send his brexit lawbreaking proposals to parliament. the justice secretary warns he could quit over the issue. investors now await the boe rate decision on thursday. good morning and welcome to "bloomberg surveillance." i'm francine lacqua in london. tom keene is in new york. tom, there is a lot of news for monday money. tom: huge news flow. francine: -- there is a lot of news for monday morning. tom: huge news flow. francine: i'm very focused on the swiss bank. both banks have not talked about it yet, but huge news should it come to fruition. tom: it

the online health care unit of china's number two e-commerce company hired bank of america and ubs tohe listing which aims to raise a billion dollars from the share sale. the world's top cruise lines are planning to host a return to the sea is recommending covid-19 tests of all passengers and crews. it is one of 70 steps outlined in a report to the cdc in a panel by royal caribbean and norwegian saying they will clear the way. asia," weaybreak talked to cambridge university about the movement of dirty money around the world. plus, the julius baer head of asia research is with us next. ♪ >> welcome to "bloomberg daybreak: asia." >> asia's major markets have just open for trade. declines after wall street edge back from a correction and europe fell sharply. global stocks and a full day of decline the longest losing streak in several months. global banks face a stormy session amid claims of suspicious financial dealings monday after the report exchanges fell in london. bytedance would retain overall control in the tiktok oracle deal and president trump now saying he could change his mind

joining us now is the chief investment officer at ubs, mark haefele.d has changed and given us more insight into how they look at inflation but also giving themselves more flexibility, how does that move asset classes? mark: i think it has been a huge stimulus over the summer, and if you look out. this combination of central-bank action and all the digital newds, they point to this normal, which is really stimulated -- new normal, which is digital and a lot more stimulative to the system, and that fuels prices in particular in the tech stocks. the next question is when do we get more normal. when do people get to go back into restaurants and start flying on planes? that is what the markets will be focused on this fall. we ever get back to where we were in 2019, or will it gradually be more normal? what kind of scarring does that due to the economies, and for central banks? get to al, we will more normal state. of ay take the adoption vaccine, but those things are on the horizon. whether they are one quarter away, two quarters away, three quarters away,

small bank in spain, have been exploring options with goldman sachs, and we are also seeing that with ubsredit suisse rumors possible at a national level we might see this happen. the big question is can that translate into transnational, at the impression i get it is still too soon for that. there is still legislature that needs to happen. alix: which i also feel like how these are executed becomes even more important. what does this mean in terms of job cuts versus synergy because labor laws are such that stung making a lot of job cuts for banking mergers in europe will be tough unlike in the u.s.. charlie: there is a massive gulf in those costs. ixa bank is a perfect example. i was looking at the 2.2 billion euros in looking at the job cuts they have done in the past. once you get here to early retirement minute 2017 caixa bank cost an average of 207 euros per employee to let them go. certainly in spain and other countries that have labor laws, it makes it more difficult to do. that is why it is difficult to do these transnational deals. guy: is this a covid transaction? is this someth

now you've got ubs talking deutsche bank. credit suisse may, or maybe the bmp.t has to be on the asset management side. the cross-border is not really what domestic is about, which is shutting retail networks and stripping out lots of traditional banking. it is more about scale to compete with the americans and also continue to narrow. you need more scale. is thetsche bank story soft end of this bill where you've got business as well. domestic retail and domestic corporate first and the bigger deals, we can't see anything apart from -- until deep into next year. tom: what is the power of the german government to basically tell commerzbank what to do? on a quickas them ratio at 0.19 book value. i have never seen a statistic that low. why doesn't the german government just put them out of their misery? >> who are you going to fill the room with? --many shortly has [indiscernible] the minute you do that, you're going to get wholesale branch closes. the german government is seeing this time when they have extended their furlough scheme to be driving through retail n

the ubs chairman has been studying the feasibility of a megamerger with rival credit suisse.cise and there are no formal discussions. and actions are being weighed against citigroup over control functions that persisted even after their the lenders spent an additional $1 billion in that area this year. citigroup says the bank remains in discussions with overseers, including the federal reserve, and no imminent action is expected. alibaba said to be in talks to invest as much as $3 billion in grab. the chinese e-commerce giant would be the only investor in the world and would potentially grab some of grab's stocks held by uber. it would give it access to data on tens of millions of users across eight markets. tencent picked singapore as its asian hub, joining alibaba in the race to boost its presence. t currently has dozens of job openings in singapore. billionaire steve cohen has finally reached a deal to buy their new york mets after a nine-month saga. terms of the transaction were not discussed. cohen was in talks to acquire the team late last year but negotiations broke do

tom: some really interesting , ices, particularly from ubs thought he was extremely good on derivativesterday. thanks to our team, really working over labor day to bring you coverage on this, on the first tuesday here after the summer ends. right now we go to singapore, where the summer never ends. mark cudmore with bloomberg mliv. he does a goo wonderful job of distilling market dynamic. mark cudmore, i want to talk about the gamma trade. let's talk about softbank and all that. a great buying of the call options, can we observed that unwind? mark: it is hard to see in real time. volumes,f the option you can interpret what is going on, but it is later on that we get the exact positions of the unwind. what we do know in real time is that there were these very large call positions. the softbank story has been a red herring in terms of their positioning soft by retail overall. this is more the retail trade. we're not seeing an unwind. it has caused a lot of disruption in that space. that is why the trillion dollar question about whether the , i stilln has begun think there is more pain to

almost half of them worked at ubs. about 40cooped up people from other firms.bal banks have announced job cuts of more than 63,000 this year. that is your latest bloomberg business flash. it is time for our stock of the hour. for that we want to bring in scarlet fu. a are seeing gamestop with reaction today because their new plans, they are ramping up pressure on amazon after amazon's purchase of the netflix of gaming. scarlet: gamestop shares jumping as much as 28%, the biggest one-day rally ever, and the stock at its highest level since march 2019. ryan cohen, the ottoman are behind two we.com has amassed an almost 10% stake in the company, to become the biggest individual investor. he as also been holding talks with management and board members of gamestop and want to become more involved. his goal is to take on amazon. ewypretty much turned ch into the amazon of pet food before selling it. he wants to apply that same record to game stock and brought of the selection beyond video games, toys, to t-shirts and accessories, improve the customer service, improve

ubs, a credit suisse and deutsche bank executives have been talking at the bank of america conference on the fed chair and u.s. treasury secretary. the house financial services committee as soon as it starts. let's look at where european markets are. yesterday was a big drop, today we recoup a little bit of that. up by 4/10 of 1% on the stoxx 600. euro-dollar trading with the $1.17 handle. as you can see, also trading lower.

ubs says by gold, 1800 bucks an ounce, down from 2000.: in insurance against uncertainty with election and a covid second wave, gold prices shot through record above $2000 and-ounce going back the last few weeks to 1800, ubs says the stick idea, a good entry point with interest rates expected to stay low at least for a while, gold is cheaper to own because you're not i missing out on higr interest rates. they say gold will get to twitty $100 an ounce next year, you might make 300 bucks. stuart: what is the etf gld, just etf gld. ashley.susan: that is the gold s not if you want to own stock itself. stuart: i guess i'll buy the little coins and bury them in the backyard. you can't win. senate judicial chair lindsey graham will meet with am amy coy barrett, marshall enter marsha blackburn joints is now. can you see anything that starts a vote in the confirmation of the judge before the election? >> there is nothing that stops the vote, we know that senator durbin has admitted as much as this weekend on tv of what they're trying to do is dela

jeff paulsen and mark smith from ubs. welcome to everyone. first we send it to you, mike. of a long weekend that was met with selling. you wornd us about september a lot of people are warning about september. what is interesting is august had tended to be a little rocky sometimes in the market just blew higher right through that after strong august, yes, september there is some kind of a give back. right now i think you can characterize it as a shakeout. it was so far extended that i'm not sure that we can say that two days of the switch back is alleviated that. if you need the equal open sut reaction if, you need to get the stocks to be oversold, it's not like they're near valuation support. that is the question otherwise, i don't think the market is doing anything all that unusual as i said earlier, it's not really predicated on m rachltaco stress it's mostly about the equity market reacting to some excess that's have built up in the equity market. like mike says, i don't know if it's enough or not i think there's going to be a pretty big buy in the dip out there. coming