i'm sure you heard the conversation we were having with ubs outlining the three scenarios. one of those is with evergrande offering properties now at a discounted rate, do you think we are underestimating how this might spill over into the broader housing market with, you know, cheaper and cheaper units, for example, and how this might affect other developers, on top of china looking to cool prices anyway? >> yes, that return to cut the price and get developers to keep more cash on hand. the key is now because buyers are losing confidence on if they can complete the property. some other developers will start facing the same problem. they could face a great credit crunch and be unable to complete the properties. the buyers are not foolish. they could simply wait for the full from a time to buy the properties if they want, so they do not have to rush into the market, by with prices lower. 25% now, they just have to wait for the end of the year to see if the government will step in. rishaad: the thing is, evergrande is naked. is there anyone else we are going to be finding als

dollar strength story for him, it is the hedge for the team at ubs. tom: i will go with the hedge thing because everyone has been complacent. i looked at the equity chart today, and it screams complacency over the last number of months. have we been tested in the last couple of weeks, which makes hedges advantageous? not in equities, but to get out the hedge and opportunities in the dollar market. jonathan: a lot of people have been caught very wrongfooted in this affects market -- this affects market. -- this fx market. lisa: the idea of higher u.s. yields is going to be choppy. it is not going to come with uniform improvement in the global economy. that is i think what we are seeing right now. that is why there seems to be this preeminence of the greenback at a time when people are still doubling down on the cyclicals. jonathan: just a brilliant lineup through the next hour to get you up to speed on what is happening in the fx market. jordan rochester of nomura, then geoff yu of bny mellon. coming up in the next 60 minutes or so. in about 10 minutes

it has dropped iron ore, the record from july, by about 50%, ubs flagging $100 for iron ore.o the basic resources, material space is important, down eight successive days. let's stay on the story, asian stocks rising, bounceback following four great days of losses. here to wrap up the latest moves is the chief china market correspondent, sophia. what are we seeing, one of the key takeaways in asia? sophia: key takeaways, a bit of a rebound in hong kong. we're looking at the retail sector here with ever grand contingent risks really spreading. we saw country garden, which was china biggest -- china's biggest property developer. another stock to watch has significant exposure to the sector, heading for the biggest decline since the august 2015 deval. big liquidity operation from the central bank in china, which injected the most short-term cash since february, making sure banks had enough cash in case of a liquidity squeeze caused by, as you mentioned, a slowdown in the real estate sector ahead of the four-day weekend in china. tom: sofia with the latest in china. importance of

jason draho there, ubs america's head of tech to allocation. thank you. -- head of tactical asset allocation. thank you. tom: i think it speaks to the press conference. you may get a recalibration on how dovish dovish is, but you are right, we have never done an into fed meeting this style and -- this silent. jonathan: communication, or down to events? kailey: i think it may be down to events. we have already downgraded the importance of the september 22 meeting given that jobs report. so already, the fed this week seemed like it was going to be less of a market event the navy had been anticipated previously. then you layer all the risk on china on top of that, and it may be downgrades the importance even more. jonathan: coming up, tom sitting down with the head of roubini macro associates, then the head of bridgewater, ray dalio. i thought we were always joking. i did not know that it was spiked with your beverage of choice everson will morning. futures this morning, good morning. i will stay in control of my words for the rest of the show. th

the ubs chief of strategy is joining us on the line. let's start with evergrande.ow messy could this get? >> i don't think this is a lehman moment. when you try to reintroduce moral hazard after four credit cycles, it will be messy. the biggest risk is not what happens to suppliers or the financial system near-term. i think china has managed that reasonably well. default levels are low in the overall economy. the capital adequacy for large banks is quite high. i think the most important issue is what this does to the collateral of the entire credit boom which is property prices and confidence in property itself. people have tremendous faith in chinese policymakers' ability to put a floor under the property price and prop it up. i think as they try to emphasize the redistribution of the pie, there is a risk in the next five years, property prices will be very low. that comes not just with a slowdown in chinese growth but larger implications for things like commodities. i don't think this is a credit crisis yet. but this is going to be a major slowdown in growth. ali

ubs says, time to go long brent. pick up longer oil contracts.knows that oil stocks will benefit from the economic reopening and those assets have yet to fully reflect the price recovery. haidi: staying with oil, opec and allies agreeing to stick to their existing plans for gradual monthly oil production increases . this has ratified the 400,000 barrel supply schedule. let's bring in daniel hynes. given how contentious this has been, this was a surprise. you don't think that this level of agreement is necessarily a long-lasting one. daniel: yeah. it has been clear that the market has been calling out for a strong oil. we are seeing increasing headwinds for the demand, particularly in asia. the delta variant has certainly curtailed mobility. it is surprising. to see them so unified. as you suggest, the 2022 outlook is certainly on a knife's edge. i think we don't see demand returning to pre-pandemic levels. particularly international travel. there's going to be some sort of stealing on that recovery ultimately. that will come to fruition through 2

positive territory, up .4%, and by the way, morgan stanley singapore hiring bankers from ubs to helphem cap the rich chinese. she is now a singapore citizen. plenty more ahead. this is bloomberg. ♪ haslinda: if you were a billionaire, it's easy for you to say that cash is trash. that is the view of ray dalio. he was speaking at a bridgewater event. should not be too reliant on cash. it is trash. what do you think? rishaad: went on to talk about bitcoin and other crypto currencies becoming too successful. that regulators and governments would really essentially shut them down. he took issue also with kathy wood from ark investments, you know, saying really, essentially, that her forecast for bitcoin does not really make sense here so there's a bit of two and fro place with regards to cryptocurrencies as usual. let's just move and have a look at christine lagarde. she has also been the latest to chime in on the crypto space. the european central bank president saying they remain highly speculative. christine: crypto's are not currencies. they are highly speculative assets that claim th

ubs expects market sentiment to require.he market open in tokyo and seoul, futures in sydney pointing to a week or 10. futures for the nikkei down. the yen, 46 against a strengthening greenback. more to come in a moment. this is bloomberg. ♪ baaam. internet that doesn't miss a beat. that's cute, but my internet streams to my ride. adorable, but does yours block malware? nope. -it crushes it. pshh, mine's so fast, no one can catch me. big whoop! mine gives me a 4k streaming box. -for free! that's because you all have the same internet. xfinity xfi. so powerful, it keeps one-upping itself. can your internet do that? shery: hello and welcome to "daybreak: asia." paul: we are looking at the major market opens in asia. our top story this hour -- wall street's biggest monthly selloff since 2020. china warning blackouts will not be tolerated, plus evergrande pays off some investors. let's take you to a live shot into hong kong right now. a flag raising ceremony in hong kong commemorating the founding of the people's republic of chi

we do have ubs seeing it dropping to $1000 by the end of the year. losing more than 20% alone.ot great, then, for australia's futures. newcastle coal has doubled. and switching on the board, uranium has had a very stellar run, indeed. the highest level since 2014. this is actually the wrong board. but uranium, over that submarine deal. >> let's get more on that when it comes to the bloomberg aspects. scott morrison is defending his government's decision to drop that deal for diesel-powered submarines in favor of a nuclear option developed with the u.s. and the u.k. he says they knew about the serious concerns about the french design. >> australia, like any sovereign nation, must always take decisions that are in our national interest and that is what we have done in this circumstance. we have made this clear for some time. this was an issue that had been raised by me directly some months ago. >> paul allen, the french theory continues, at least publicly. what is the latest? >> scott morrison said france shouldn't have been blindsided by this. they had previously raised deep con

nick nelson at ubs, dac -- back with the team. titans of wall street tell bloomberg that they see the most significant risks facing the economies and society in the coming years. what are they? the big take, next. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ >> i think the number one risk that we were will really -- were really vulnerable to is the sustainability of the global payments system. it would appear to me that we are extremely vulnerable to having an attack against the payment system of the financial market. >> think of people whose jobs have not been displaced by this big step that business has taken to digitalization, have no assets to begin with. they then benefit from what has happened to asset prices. >> there are a lot of value traps populating traditional benchmarks today. the value traps will be significant downsides because of all of the disruption and disintermediation. manus: all talking about what they think the next biggest risks are in the world into markets. it's interesting. minor talks about attack, inequality. that is social

that is the latest out of ubs. we have really got to find out who holds that debt.body's got the exposure on the credit and the equity side. tom: you are 100% correct. what i would say is the obvious crisis is never what gets you. there will be tangential things such as margin dynamics and the rest that will surprise the street. that is the risk that is out there right now. jonathan: we are not in the business of guessing, so let's talk about what we know so far. we know today the two interest payments are due on two bonds. we know based on reporting that the local currency bond might be downwards. the dollar bond, not so much. we heard from "the wall street journal" earlier today that china is making preparations for evergrande's demise. there's something north of $600 million of interest payments due . what bugs me is how may times i have heard the name lehman. the starting point for everyone's exercise seems to be, is it systemic? is it lehman? move on. my concern is this is potentially a symptom for something developing. it is a conversation that is going to be

ubs says that raw material will drop a low $100 in the next month.he markets open. u.s. retail sales number came in more positively than estimated, but the jobless claims numbers were a disappointment. with retail sales, when you look at the u.k., that number is a fourth straight month of declines in retail sales. what does that tell you about concerns over the pandemic, and the question for the boe? the ftse 100 brushing off concerns about slumping retail sales, and over in france the cac quarante is stronger, 0.8%. the ibex in positive territory, adding 70 points. we are looking ahead to germany, the election remains squarely in focus. we are in the last week olaf scholz is still in the lead. there will be a debate sunday, what that means for the makeup of that country's politics. that switch to a story around supply chains, chips, technology. chuck robbins expects supply chain issues to ease in the middle of next year. the situation is still very fluid. he sees christ -- he sees price increases being permanent. >> we have been undergoing a transfo

jon: a representative from ubs coming up shortly.markets right here on bloomberg. ♪ here on bloomberg. ♪ it's moving day. and while her friends are doing the heavy lifting, jess is busy moving her xfinity internet and tv services. it only takes about a minute. wait, a minute? but what have you been doing for the last two hours? ...delegating? oh, good one. move your xfinity services without breaking a sweat. xfinity makes moving easy. go online to transfer your services in about a minute. get started today. (announcer) back pain hurts. you can spend thousands and still not get relief. now there's aerotrainer by golo. you can stretch and strengthen your core, relieve back pain, and tone your entire body. (man) and you're stretching your lower back on there. there is no better feeling. (announcer) do planks for maximum core and total body conditioning. (woman) aerotrainer makes me want to work out. look at me. it works, 100%. (announcer) find out more at aerotrainer.com. that's aerotrainer.com. >> i never want to see a down market, but

continue to just be high demand and obviously failed pricing power like very few others >> so brenda, ubs is out today and thinking about the same thing that we are and that we're talking about. they say rising yields shouldn't end the equity rally but it could have an impact on relative sector performance and i think we agree with that mike wilson, by the way, says you want to stay defensive, this may be the time he says when markets are playing tricks on investors and even setting a bit of a trap. he's talking about why stocks rallied last week in the face of his own call for a 20% correction in stocks i mean i'll give him credit for holding his guns, keeping to his position there you want to take a position on either one of those suing begs either from ubs that yields won't end the equity rally or mike wilson who says we're basically getting a fake out >> one i think we can't forget we've been in this period of time where economic growth has been negatively impacted by the delta variant. it's beginning to lessen that should absolutely be a good thing. and could, better economic growth

a ubs caht on deo getting a fun lesson on a school playground. this is the "cbs morning news." so, the last two years that i've had my dexcom have been the most adventurous years of my life. loved running. this is incredible. i really worry about lows to the point where i let it get in my way for years. the alerts are a miracle. it's changed my life. a hundred percent. i love my dexcom. i really do. for people who could use a lift new neutrogena® rapid firming. a triple-lift serum with pure collagen. 92% saw visibly firmer skin in just 4 weeks. neutrogena® for people with skin. ♪ neutr♪gena® ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ >>> jurors are >>> jurors are expected to begin deliberations today in the federal trial of r. kelly. the 54-year-old r&b star faces racketeering charges related to alleged illegal sexual activity involving women and underage teens. during yesterday's closing arguments, kelly's attorney compared the singer to dr. martin luther king jr., invoking one of his speeches. kelly faces decades in prison if convicted. he's also been charged with sex crimes in illinois and minnesota. >>> why

the ubs is not the same country we were when we were attacked on 9/11 20 years ago. today we are better equipped to detect and prevent terrorist threats and we are a more resilient in our ability to repel them and respond. we know how to build effective partnerships by targeting their finances and support systems. countering their prop propaganda. preventing their travel. as well as disrupting imminent attacks. we'll meet terrorist threats that arise today and in the future with a full range of tools available to us. including working in cooperation with local partners so that we need not be so reliant on large-scale military deployments. it one of the most important ways we can effectively enhance security and reduce violence is by seeking to improve the lives of the people all over the world. who see that their governments are not serving their needs. corruption fuels inequality. siphons off a nation's resources. spreads across borders and generates human suffering. it's nothing less than a national security threat in the 21st century. around the world we are incre

ubs warning about the difficulties, supply chain difficulties facing the company. payments business, we understand the italian competition will investigate whether the acquisition of whether it could lead to a dominant position in the digital payment sector. that italian watchdog probe is weighing on the stock today. now back to our top interview. the complexities of operating in china have increased but hsbc will continue to navigate these. that is the view of the ceo. he adds the bank is expanding in the important will be hiring wealth managers. in his first interview since being named ceo, he spoke exclusively to francine lacqua. noel: we have been around 156 years and faced political tensions. if you want to be an international, at times it can be difficult. i will not deny that. our clients tell us they want us to bank globally, whether consumers who want to invest around the world, or businesses wanting to trade with the world. the demand we have seen even in a crisis like the one we have faced, the demand from our customers still exists. francine: are author

ubs allying somewhat with that view. asia is in the red this morning. let's check in with what's happening on the msci asia pacific. casino stock still under pressure, reflected in what's happening, down almost 2%. the nasdaq gaining but the futures are currently flat. brent gaining .3%. that's get the latest from juliette saly in singapore. juliette: it is a contagion effect of evergrand, a chorus of concerns about contagion. you mentioned some of the weakness in these players, down by almost 11%. evergrand at a near 10 year low, and all this playing into the broader hang seng index. let's flip the board and look at how it is weighing into the hang seng. the tech index is another one that's been hit incredibly hard over the crackdown, down another 1.6%. analysts are bearish about the sector but i did want to bring you some bright spots, crude at a six weeks high, the energy sector holding up in the kiwi holding up too after a strong gdp for new zealand. manus: just way for all those research notes that will stack up in your inbox, juliette saly in sing

wang tao is a chief economist at ubs.his chart when it comes to what we are expecting in industrial reduction, retail sales and fixed asset investment. are you worried about the retail-consumer peace? wang: yes. in august, especially with new cases of covid, the government put more restrictions on activities, especially services and tourism. i think that has likely it retail sales and consumption, particularly in august. so, that would be a repeat. things are starting to improve, but august numbers should reflect that weakness. haidi: is it going to be weak enough for the pboc and for authorities to skew from their cautious way of withdrawing liquidity from the markets? wang: the pbc has provided quite a it of months. the market rate has remained low. i think, to the extent that that august number was because of restrictions and so on, i don't think that is going to change their policy tone. second, previously, fiscal policy has been held tight and since the meeting at the end of july, fiscal is supposed to be easing. we

she was walking to a local ub, this update. she was walking to a local pub. the _ this update.s walking to a local pub, the journey should - this update. she was walking to a | local pub, the journey should have only taken five minutes but she never arrived. she was attacked in a nearby park. now, this morning here in london we have had a statement from the metropolitan police. they say they have arrested a 38—year—old man on suspicion of her murder. he was detained in east sussex at around three o'clock this morning. he is currently in police custody. 0fficers he is currently in police custody. officers say that sabina nessa's family have been informed of this development. they describing it as a significant arrest and they say that the family are continuing to be supported by officers. sabina nessa's death has prompted an outpouring of grief in the local community and beyond. people asking why a woman was not able to walk on the streets alone. there was a big vigil on friday night near to where she lived. people arrived with flowers and candles. now, police had previously arr

we will get more analysis from the chief china economist from ubs and barclays in the coming hours.e china adjacent story, iron or dropped to the lowest point this year. investors awaiting the key numbers. it may be ongoing production curves. let's bring in james thornhill for more. when it comes to the pullback in iron ore prices, is it down to the steel mill curves? >> yes. that is the main factor right now. unwanted milestones as iron ore producers are concerned. pullback extended $100 from the record high we saw back in may. levels around 120. according to analysts at bloomberg intelligence, they could be down around 10% over the august to december period compared to the previous year. it gives you sense for how much it is being paired back. anecdotally, steel mills are holding back on purchases of iron ore. expecting the price to drop further. the rest of the year, we are looking at a fall for iron ore prices. not a straight line, but the trajectory looks well set. the question for the market is what happens in the new year when the curves will be east as we start the new year,

let's get straight to evan brown, ubs asset management multi-asset strategy had. here it is over the last week. why is this not a head fake? evan: i think what is happening now is the market is starting to look forward to the healing in developed economies. covid, delta, it is finally starting to turn. we've seen data come in disappointing a for a while, but now there's economic surprises are bottoming because they know household balance sheets are in really good shape. we are ready for the next leg of re-acceleration as we get through delta. so definitely think this has some legs. tom: how have you adjusted your allocation, finally with the markets moving, do you adjust asset strategy? evan: when we get some confirmation of what is happening, yes, and the price action we might add more to those positions. the hardest part of our job was singing about what is priced in. we might have a thesis, but that might be in line with what is priced. particularly on china, it tells you a lot of that bad news was in the price with a 1.35% 10 year yield. the market was telling

ubs is rolling out a permit hybrid working model days after deutsche bank said that if you want to getnto the offices in new york, you have to have a vaccine. more consumers are making the switch to digital banking. we will get an outlook with luvleen sidhu, ceo of digital banking firm bm technologies. this is bloomberg. ♪ matt: this is bloomberg markets. i'm matt miller. since the onset of the pandemic, more consumers have started to embrace digital banking. they have had little other choice. here to discuss the evolution of fintech is luvleen sidhu, ceo of bm technologies. i believe you are the youngest female founder and ceo on the stock exchange. but not without your bona fides. you went to harvard, went to wharton, worked at neuberger berman. what made you branch out into digital banking? luvleen: thank you so much for having me. what really got me excited, i graduated from harvard in 2008. my first day on the job was the lehman bankruptcy. very early in my professional career, i was able to witness firsthand the fragility of the american financial landscape, and how so many ameri

we will get the ubs perspective. that is all coming up.omberg. ♪ and there you have it— -woah. wireless on the most reliable network nationwide. wow! -big deal! ...we get unlimited for just $30 bucks. sweet, but mine has 5g included. relax people, my wireless is crushing it. that's because you all have xfinity mobile with your internet. it's wireless so good, it keeps one upping itself. switch to xfinity mobile and save hundreds on your wireless bill. plus, save up to $400 when you purchase a new samsung phone or upgrade your existing phone. learn more at your local xfinity store today. in business, it's never just another day. it's the big sale, or the big presentation. the day where everything goes right. or the one where nothing does. with comcast business you get the network that can deliver gig speeds to the most businesses and advanced cybersecurity to protect every device on it— all backed by a dedicated team, 24/7. every day in business is a big day. we'll keep you ready for what's next. comcast business powering possibilities. ann

. , ., , piece of paper when they go to the ub. , ~ , ., pub. yes, i think it is important that and of course pressure - pub. yes, i think it is importantl that and of course pressure from what is known as the night—time industry we thought that this was chaotic and surreal. they're making a point that if it was safe to go to a point that if it was safe to go to a nightclub without a passport in july, why would it be at the end of this month? it is a very difficult issue but civil liberties and that issue but civil liberties and that is been the case all along and it has to be said that this governments handling of the covid—19 crisis, of course the government all over the western world in particular. taste western world in particular. we appreciate you coming in. straight from oxford to washington, dc. anthony is answering questions and the congress to do with the us withdraw from afghanistan. it's a quick listen to what is being said. epic proportions. i never thought in my lifetime that i would see an unconditional surrender to the taliban. f

jonathan: ubs asset management. let's go to the news from punch ball. democrats appear to back a corporate rate boost to 25%, from 21%, instead of the move the president pushed for to 28%. kailey: we are talking about three percentage points, but that is still a hike, and not just corporate tax rate hikes we are talking about. we are looking at a higher capital gains tax. democrats are considering other forms of taxes including on the salaries of corporate executives for excess pay. as we look at the 3.5 billion dollar budget reconciliation, we have to pay attention to the composition. jonathan: it is a big effort in washington. lisa: but 3.5 trillion dollar package, will it really be $3.5 trillion? if you don't get the whole thing but you also get the offsets, how much growth do we get? jonathan: i will go with lower, if that helps. lisa abramowicz, kailey leinz -- "bloomberg surveillance," stating the obvious. unchanged in the s&p 500, yields are higher by four basis points. that was my best tom keene impression. lisa: you are really filling the role.

. -- has tapped ubs for a hong kong sting as early as next year.ny could raise at least $500 million in an ipo. several chinese tea houses are eyeing ipo's after one raised 1.4 you dollars in a share sale in june. coming up, lori and gilbert says we should had to equity markets in general, and brad gibson says central bank divergence will be the topic for the rest of the year. you don't want to miss those conversations. daybreak: asia is next. this is bloomberg. ♪ haidi: welcome to "daybreak: asia," i am haidi stroud-watts in sydney. sophie: i am sophie kamaruddin in singapore. shery: and in hong kong, i am shery ahn. markets await u.s. inflation data after wall street snaps of five-day losing streak. japanese leadership front

. >> kelly, it certainly was, but it want just the storm ubs but the previous storms that set up thee entire east coast, storm bermuda highs have been anchored out here you've been reporting on it, hearing about it the west is very dry, strong bermuda high the high pressure has been keeping a lot of thunderstorms and humidity we've had humid days here that would compare to, like, south florida or cuba. many days out of the july and's. it'sing sending tropical systems or way you see these ls here, this is where the storm centers ended up we're talking about feet of rain that's why we saw the flood threat we saw and the massive flooding we saw in the past 24 hours or so we saturated the ground. >> and the too of -- take a couple of snap shots here. picking up 21.41 inches of rain. we're not talking about just what felt, new york city, 49.52. that's what they get all year long we're already talking about two months out of the year we're pretty close to where we are for the entire year. hartford, 17.07 inches july and august, we just picked up another 7 inches of rain alone yesterday frt

workers have beenreceiving unemployment benefits so we think a lot of those drivers will come back ube uber published survey data that suggests people are interested in coming back over 400,000 drivers have come back and we think you could see an uplift based on their everyserver data and historical trends. >> i came back today on an uber because my car is flooded. justin, i was struck by how much more the cost was. have they done the right thing in terms of using whatever pricing power they have? >> yeah, you're not alone. investors have noticed longer wait times and higher costs to take an uber so that has affected bookings. so i think they're trying to do their best to balance the supply and demand in some countries where supply has come back, we've seen higher margins and price values come down a little bit. in the u.s., if supply comes back, we think it will be good and lower wait times, possibly reduced pricing, and despite the lower pricing could increase overall bookings. >> yeah. when you say supply comes back you're talking about driver supply and car supply. not supply of cu

ubs talking about the doorway she ecb taper. jonathan: we have to be clear about this. they came out with the size of the envelope, 1.5 euros and a loose guidance as well march of next year. that is different to the federal reserve. you can call it taper, but a taper from the ecb would be different from the taper that could be announced from the fed this year. lisa: how do they signal that they will provide support on an ongoing basis to an economy that still has potential problems? we do see disinflationary push from higher commodity costs. jonathan: there was an asset purchase program. the degree of flexibility that has carried over, that is the question. too many details to get through the top of the program that we can do later. let's start with the price action this thursday. we are ahead 0.2%. we have had three days to explain to us while you have been out of the building on the s&p. getting to that in a moment. the 10 year, down by one basis point. euro-dollar, a slightly stronger euro onion into this decision. euro-dollar, 118.32. lisa: compared to what we have

>> mike, thank you what we're seeing at the ubs from this perspective.trading volume is way below 20-day moving averages so i think it would be dangerous to read anything into the current price action and take that as a real indication of what the market sentiment should be we still believe that the momentum, the flow and reopening of the economy is going to be favorable for financials we think that energy, those things that value stocks that we've seen, a lot of cash flow into, value here, large cap value over the last several weeks, we think that that is the trend, and it will continue. it took a little bit of a three-month vacation between may and today for these trends to restart themselves because we've had a lot of noise and the market has climbed many walls of worry but we really do think it's important to stay focused on the reopening trade and that comes down to value stocks, financial energy, those type of things some of the things that did not do particularly well today's light volume >> giving you a chance perhaps to add back on those meanwhi

ubs also lowering its price target from $397 and $380.90,000 seasonal workers for the holidays adding that seasonal costs will be a headwind for this quarter both stocks really underperforming the s&p in recent months as ecommerce has decelerated during the reopening. back over to you >> thanks very much. skewed to the downside in terms of new york stock exchange volume not quite 2-1. it's less negative than you might think. treasury yields have been the story. have been firm all week. actually kind of pressing up against their maybe two-month trend, up around 140 looks like it will be hard to crack. that's a one-year -- a year-to-date chart you can see it's gotten a little bit of upside there. and the volatility index has been jumpy did get above 20 for a while today. it's going to go out above 20. the market is a little bittage stated, as we have another test of the s&p 500, 50-day moving average and a second straight losing week. >>> don't see that every day the closing bell from space. i'm sara eisen with mike santoli in today for wil

finishing today up 1.1% and wti at 73.97 for a gain of .9% that is the fifth straight week of gains ubsday that brent could hit 80 by the ends of september, just a few days away as inventory continues to fall but they say it could be short-lived unless a colder than expected winter prompts investors to swap oil for gas. >>> one of the largest deals every in automotive retail sonic buying dealerships this week dealers are facing shortages of inventory. sonic has less than 10,000 new and used vehicles in its system. er inially two years ago they had over 30,000. the shortage is driving up car prices, prices are averaging 4$,000 per vehicle it has helped sonic. with us, jeff dike, the president of sonic automotive. let's begin with the transaction earlier this week, which sounds like it will excredits your footprint. we had on earl heseberg with group one auto motive. he had done that day a similar deal where are multibrand, multistate dealerships combining the way they are today what's the every us the here >> thanks, tyler who knows? i think at the ends of the day the tax situation maybe

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they wanted to shutdown ub are uber became too big. the people want to do. we have uber i think that's where we're going to be with bitcoin ray said to me once. anything you think cannot happen could very well happen in some cases it always does we have to be vigilant for that downside i'm glad he brought that up. i want people to be informed investors. i want them to understand the risk but i also want them to do the homework. >> look, i mean, it does not have intrinsic value is maybe the most damning part of the comment that he made. >> but he knows it has intrinsic value. because he bought it i think we're slicing and diesing. i'd love to talk to him about it on here. the brand bitcoin, the fact we have 180 million wallets or users. and cathie wood said it a few days age to andrew ross sorkin we're likely to have a billion user by the end of 2025. >> she said it will have five times the value i get it. >> but the network itself that's what we have learned from facebook, google, all the great companies, as they went up the curve of mellifluent's claw, the

it's good to have you here >> thank you so much >> emmy ruben with ubs global wealth management. >>> several fed presidents are facing scrutiny after facing investments in stock trades over the past year. steve liesman is here with the details and the fallout. steve? >> kelly, thanks amid an outcry about fed officials owning and trading securities, fed officials owned financial disclosures, finds three who last year held assets the same time the fed itself was buying eric rosengren made 37 during 2020 the fed last purchased almost $700 billion last week he would sell these positions and stop trading while president. dallas fed president, robert kaplan actively traded millions of dollars in stocks he said he would take the same action as rosengren. made sure his personal savings and invs.ment transactions complied or permissible under fed ethics rules jay powell held between one and a quarter and 2.5 million in muni bonds they are just a small part of his portfolio. they were held while the fed bought $21 billion in munis. a spokesperson telling cnbc that powell had no say on the inve

ubs strong by the dip. investor mindset and then there's our friend mike wilson, morgan stanley's chief market strategist, and he ins us now who says a 20% correction seems more likely. what happened to 10% you get a bad day and now you up it to 20 >> thanks, scott >> basically it's still 10%, and a lot of commentary i agree with and i was just there and on the show we're want going time these things and we've been in a position that the index would end the year 4,000 and i don't know when that will correct and i have a high conviction that that's where they'll end there's been the call, and i think the most important thing to have gotten right this year and what will be important to get right the rest of the year is what do you own within the market, okay we had a huge rotation in the beginning of the year. at that point we made the call that we'll go through this mid-cycle transition and have a bit of a rolling correction. that played out. we made the quality bet which is essentially the faang stocks and

ubs comes out and says this is a good environment for equities overall and particularly for financial and energy sectors whereas everybody seems so negative now to end the week i feel like we get more positive there is tom lee when you need hip further evidence of negative shocks are transitory supports everything rally in the year end. jenny harrington, i teed it up for you. >> thanks. i'm wishy washy, in the middle. >> why >> i hear all the bull cases -- i hear all the bull case arguments. but i also see negatives out there. actually in a weird way the negatives are this return to normal i keep talking about. think will returning to normal returning to normal is the fed not pumping $120 billion into the market every month we know taper comes. but until it does we have $700 billion still pumped in probably we know that -- sorry 21 times valuation is still but to teena point there is no alternative, the 1.3% 10-year treasury props up valuations you've got this push and pull. we can keep going. i'm a full buyer of jim's bull points. >> what's your number one negative because if you say

difference a few days make, right, josh i think thinking that evergrande will not be china's moment and ubs says it's not keeping him up at night and the taper is getting closer liesman made the best point of all and really put all of this into perspective for us when they said they're still doing more than what qe2 was even when tapering bond purchases and you'll still be a wash in liquid the and the delta variant, still cautious about that. several companies are starting to look past it. southwest airlines think it's peaked and they'll start 50% of the fleet by october merck sees a potential for a covid antiviral by the end of the year same question i asked pete at the top. are we good? forget about what happened a few days ago are we good? >> as tempting as it would be to say we're good and it is not on anybod anybody's list to worry about. so it ain't going to be inflation and it ain't going to be the fed it will be something like evergrande that comes out of nowhere and that will produce volatility, but i think on this show we got it right, judge. if anyone wants to remind the tape and

footing soon which is what we expect citi says the likely correction likely less than 10% they say ubs, yields can rise further, but so can equities what say you >> i think i'm going to add a third one. we all own stocks, right we saw fund flows that have been extraordinary as retail investors have come back into the market, and bendable, and what investors have to understand is that technology is close to 30% of the s&p, 26 to 28% and the s&p generally will have headwinds as rates have risen so you have to understand that what's not broken is things like energy and 2.5% of the s&p and if it doubles again it won't have impact. i think as we're going through this back and forth of when the fed, is it a taper or just ending a program that needed to go away, and as when that starts when we start seeing natural price discovery return back into the treasury market, i think that's when we'll really understand where the market trajectory will go longer term and whether tech will face more of a one-quarter, two-quarter headwind, and the market is known for the debt ceiling and yesterday the th

goldman goes bullish on a number of internet sector companies after approaching derrick sheridan from ubs. the bank is introducing the new framework as they initiate 17 large cap tech names bank is taking a selective approach of the sector buy ratings include the biggest names including big tech names like amazon, alphabet, facebook as well as some social platforms like snap and uber and lyft. overall, julia, they say in our view the industry has ample opportunities for secular revenue growth, but we're not uniformly bullish that a lot of companies have moved growth forward, priced into their equity it seems like if you had to say it in a nut shell, their most pronounced upside is in digital advertising. >> certainly i think this is a fascinating read i recommend you guys check it out, if you haven't already. they have a couple of key points here these big issues that they're watching, one of them is a line between commerce and advertising, blurriness is something we talk about not just on amazon but facebook and other social platforms the rise of the creator economy. this is a story i've

let's bring in former ubs america's chairman and ceo, and a fox news contributor and just great guy democratic you. nice to see you, cheryl. >> what do you make of what you're seeing right now out of washington? the shutdown avert but you still got the debt ceiling issue that's kind of hanging over the country and then you've got these two competing bills that manchin is basically stomped on at least the $3.5 trillion bill. >> well i think washington's been a bit of a debacle, and this polarizing environment doesn't help anyone in our nation, so let's just take each. the idea that we have been talking about a government shutdown is ridiculous. especially during covid, and the idea that we've only extended it to early december we're going to have to go through this question is absurd. the debt ceiling, which has been passed 80 times, since 1960. this is not political. this is something that the u.s. congress has approved its liabilities and budget and now he must pay for them via the treasury. that's why secretary yellen has been so adimate that we're talking about the full-facing credit of the

to president biden asking for federal law enforcement and other assistance to deal with the growing ubhreats of violence and acts of intimidation >> when we're fighting over mask policies or political issues in schools, that's really getting in the way of providing an excellent education for all children we've got to get back to that. >> reporter: the mayhem over masks has been happening for weeks as school leaders decide whether students should cover up at a senate committee hearing today education secretary miguel cardona called the attacks very dangerous. >> i'll tell you the lack of civility in some of our meetings is disappointing and frustrating. especially because they're superintendents and educators and board members, you should know you're a board member, they've worked tirelessly over the last 18 months to provide a safe environment >> reporter: and also in that letter to the president the nsba writes as these acts of malice violence and threats against public school officials have increased the classification of these heinous actions could be the equivalent to a form of dom

ubs investment firm says their unvaccinated employees can continue to work from home.fice. heather zumarraga is with us again. seems to me this vaccination question is going to keep a lot of people at home, remote work will be almost rejuvenated by these vaccine mandates. where do you stand on this? >> yeah. i think remote work is here to stay, even long after the epidemic -- even long after the pandemic, a lot of banks are struggling to get people back to the office. when you have ubs right now, one of the largest banks, they have an enormous global presence, while they have 25,000 u.s. workers, they also have most of their employees in switzerland, as well as some in hong kong, so it is difficult to mandate requirements for your employees if you are in different countries throughout the world, which all have very different legal frameworks as you mentioned. the ceo saying though they identified two thirds of employees that could work from home. >> stuart: there's another angle from this. you have a vaccine passport. you can't come to work unless you are vaccinated. w

so, you know, i think we could still see and ubs has target of 5,000 by the end of 2022 and that's reala: but you have to look at the whole world and put this in context. look what is happening in china in terms of the real estate bubble. china is pretty much, you know, unwinding its property and credit bubble with this ever grand story. they are telling banks they are not going to be able to pay any -- any, you know, interest payments and they're also saying, look, you know, you need to curtail rent increases, they're pressuring revenues there. if we see the fallout of this property bubble bursting in china, doesn't that have worldwide consequences given it is the second largest economy and that doesn't include the crack-down? >> absolutely. so it absolutely has consequences and the stories around china and the difficulty and the friction of investing there, the government intervention given exactly what you're talking about in the financial system is meaningful and it's especially meaningful given that global growth and everything that we've prognosticated forward was china leaving us

a chinese teahouse chain is said to have tapped ubs for a potential hong kong listing as early as nextpany could raise at least $500 million. severalty houses are eyeing ipo's after a bubble tea chain raise $654 million in june. haidi: we have breaking news on evergrande, dollar bounds are down one to do sense. we heard the bond interest payment is drawing close scrutiny. they need to repay about $669 million in bond coupons. we also heard they sold a 40% stake. that was also according to a filing we had recently as well. this all coming at the headquarters as retail investors and wealth management product holders and employees are feeling skittish. coming up next, we take a look ahead when it comes to the prospects of chinese tech shares. regulatory pressure continuing to mount. this is bloomberg. ♪ haidi: let's get a live look at shanghai. is rainy, but we are expecting flights to resume within seven hours after the typhoon threatened flight paths as well as closures and other activity in the city. we will continue to watch that while we count down to the market open in china, the te

a 35-year-old veteran at ubs is seeking more than 200,000 pounds for negligence over anxiety disorders was created by the anxiety from working there. so when it comes to attracting and retaining young talent, wall streetch minister told bloomberg china military influence could pose a risk to japan and ever grand could affect the world. they are joining several at the white house. daniel k has more. what do we expect from the outgoing prime minister in these talks? >> this is his swansong and he is there to show solidarity and represent japan in his broader strategic initiatives and bring together the u.s., india, australia, and japan. he won't be in office much longer but there is consistency in policy toward china among the candidates in the japan election so no matter who takes over for him, they will maintain the same kind of hardline policies. we will not see what happens during shinzo abe's tenure. since the pandemic, it's hard to see any light at the end of the tunnel in terms of what will prompt relations to improve short-term. >> what else will they be addressed in the meeting