and escalation means for polarization within ukraine. well in fact one of the things that we've seen over the last 7 years is that unification. has not been a polarization and actually much more about unification i want to do want to make one more point in one last point about that they don't think are just so that we realize i mean it's not just a question of russia reacting to nato expansion ukraine is a sovereign country ukraine has been attacked it's 7 percent of its territory has been taken away he illegal it has a right to defend itself defending itself means through alliance this is a logical step this is not a question of you know someone is attacking russia no one's attacking russia russia has attacked and ukraine is defending itself that in fact is a narrative that has. very much united the printing population well i think i'm citing a jump in there the move which the ukrainian president then ski made to close the t.v. station of the pro russian on iraq has he seen victor medved choke won't move. alienate at least those ethnic

probably to divide ukraine into several states and to to create a new ukraine so which would be a russia friendly. i think that's a russian strategy but at the moment on the technical level i think russia is trying to negotiate with america with the new administration of president biden and this is i would say russian style invitation to a conversation we should remember that just a few weeks ago the u.s. president new u.s. president in a television interview. said yes putin is a killer he didn't say the word killer himself but he responded positively to the question and this is something which irritates me putting very much and i think it's played to a certain role in the kremlin's decision to escalate now but the problem is much deeper i think there are several problems in eastern ukraine which putin doesn't like and wants ukraine to move and to yield to russian wishes the west is not behaving like russia would like it to and maybe also putting seize an opportunity in a general jail political. a consolation because in the u.s. we have a new administration which is not quite strong enou

ukraine must stay calm. so let me begin by asking all 3 of you whether you think this is mostly just saber rattling or indeed something more and because in a drawn to your opening statement certainly suggests you see a very real danger of a russian offensive. well not necessarily i think it's saber wrestling and it's you know directive for impressing the west it's a signal to the west and to presidents to lansky from ukraine and. i think russia is trying to build up the stakes and all that to have a better position for further. what is $101.00 for. the eastern ukraine exact as a negotiating card you also said in your opening statement that there must be consequence quinces but the kremlin says look we have every right to move our forces within our own territory these forces are still on russian territory what would you say to that yeah that's not exactly true because within the or c. there are mechanisms and they are blige every participant and every member state to make transparent if you have such movement

in nato market what kind of ukraine i mean ukraine without the donbass ukraine without crimea i mean and then that is a violation of nato zone rules because a country cannot become a member of it has territorial disputes with its neighbors here nato is probably couldn't break its own rules and rewrite them in a it's i don't put that past them but if there is a military conflict it is not going to be the don back to the meat maybe it's all the way to kind of cough ok i mean because if you look at it from the russian side i mean if this is how you want to play then we're going to great we're going to look after our security interests i mean of this look at what happened in in georgia in 2008 i mean silva said to you it was liberated then russian forces went all the way down to gori not to occupy it not to keep it but to knock out all of the sensitive n.s.a. equipment that was there as well estimated worth be a $1000000000.00 n.s.a. had a real headache with that one there i mean what's a history does repeat itself at times and i see this here to some i mean what kind of rump state are w

the ukraine. society different. circumstance but i would cite just 3 but the ukrainian government is likely to to launch a full ask france if we've we've seen the head of ukrainian army on several occasions in the past couple months admit that any attempt to do this would involve massive civilian casualties so so do you actually seem to be aware but you know that they can't do this very easily without getting huge numbers of people but of course when they do so that will prompt a russian intervention so i think that's sort of what the fall of the coffin there paul that we're going to go to a hard break and after about a hard break we'll continue our discussion on ukraine tensions state with arkie. when you should look into. this infusion new initiative because when you look at the worst we're just going forward from 100. choices you just sort of. think it was national. petroleum i thought. it would be. what it was you're going to pull. their go pull support scoop what are these critics one of these political. becaus

as a conflict involving russia and ukraine this is false there is a road map to resolve ukraine's internal strife and it's called the minsk accords russia is not the problem but nato expansion is. talking ukraine i'm joined by my guest paul robinson in ottawa he is a professor in the graduate school of public and international affairs at the university of ottawa in chicago we have because he is a 19 nato analyst and contributor to antiwar dot com and in budapest we cross the board said he has a podcast at the gaggle which can be found on youtube and run. all right gentlemen cross in the fact that means you can jump in anytime you want and i always appreciate rick let me go to you 1st in chicago 1st of all i want to compliment you on your amazing work at antiwar dot com i think you're a very important voice and resource for people really want to understand what's going on in ukraine and you do it exemplary work there so you know one of the things that really irritates me in looking at western media coverage of what's going on in ukraine is that they frame it as a conflict between russia and

alienate at least those ethnic russians in ukraine or of ukraine is of ethnic russian origin that is a polarization thought not. first of all ethnic russians in ukraine according to the friend of the previous and the very reason now that the now that the crimea has been annexed and is not counted as part of ukraine now isn't the eastern region the boss of not the jenners part of ukraine so that we understand ethnic russians in ukraine make up less than 5 percent population so alienating a group of less than 5 percent of the population may be of course problematic from the point of view of humanity humanitarian pressure but we need to understand 95 percent of the population is in support of ukrainian unity and sees russia as an aggressor with respect to the 3 channel yes that's true but in fact those 3 channels were outlets for basically money laundering of illegal activities by this like victim of the q who in fact was a basically a family member of what you would want be laundering money from illegal activities within ukraine including financing separateness on these being funny so

is washington and its nato allies blame moscow for the escalation of tensions will the west back ukraine if kim starts a war. cross-talk in ukraine i'm joined by my guest mary the chefs in london she's a columnist for the independent on foreign affairs in washington we are all rescues and he is the executive vice president of the eurasia center and here in moscow we have gabriel gavin he is a moscow based journalist covering central and eastern europe for a number of outlets including our team are across the uk rules in effect that means you can jump in anytime you want and i always appreciate mary let me go to you 1st here this is a very ominous situation that we're facing right now we have 10 tensions are escalating the rhetoric from kiev is quite harsh moscow is reacting and nato allies are reacting as well here what's going on here i mean who's driving this is this is it washington is an accommodation of bowl and what about the timing the early days of the biden ministration because the b. team that's running american foreign policy was the b. team over on the obama administration sa

special representative for ukraine between 20172019 under former u.s. president trump he took part in negotiations involving russia to secure a cease fire in the breakaway regions of eastern ukraine ambassador it's good to see you again it's good to have you on the program again how would you answer those people who are what is vladimir putin's in the game with ukraine. well i think it's a it's a don't mean to attack the question but it's a misunderstanding to think that curtain thinks in terms of endgames putin thinks in terms of position how does he amass power and influence and how does your private over time opportunistically without any end in sight and i think what he's done with the accumulation of military force here is to demonstrate that he has substantial military capability and the political will to act if he wants to and he's trying to demonstrate on the opposite side that the west is not willing to use force and is not willing to match that and therefore ukraine had better watch out so what do you make then of russia's announcement that it

region the bottom of the generous part of ukraine so that we understand ethnic russians in ukraine make up less than 5 percent population so alienating a group of less than 5 percent of the population may be of course problematic from the point of view of humanity humanitarian pressure but we need to understand 95 percent of the population is in support of ukrainian unity and sees russia as an aggressor with respect to the 3 channel yes it's true but in fact those 3 channels were outlets for basically money laundering of illegal activities by this like the government to kill who in fact is a basically a family member of what you would want to laundering money from illegal activities within ukraine including financing separateness on the eastern front so i mean it's really problematic with respect to be rechanneled yes there is an issue those $3.00 channels were were were closed there were no protests. unlike various other things that have caused the streets recently the ringing of those channels were in fact very very low they were broadcasting progress and propaganda and it wasn't bein

ukraine and crimea ukraine that's. the many of ukrainian nationalists in the west some stall in the me since the ukraine. great and more recently benson it's become a kind of a passionate identity that. has to be. international fact it's the. national rivalries and this integration. so we have this problem is people saying with some extent in the political situation after an election suddenly these relatively small numbers smashmouth quite well on that. very question become key players again because they are on the streets where people have to work when people are also with the police dissolution they'll feel like demonstrate exactly who's demonstrate. and so we have a sense included to let. it's their election and now he's back playing with the oligarchs foreign funding the i.m.f. from there and so on and all of that in the end is not actually going to really encourage him during memories ukraine conte to suffer yeah the sad about the matter is that people don't want to recognize particularly policymakers on the west

ukraine must stay calm. so let me begin by asking all 3 of you whether you think this is mostly just saber rattling or indeed something more and because in a drawn through to your opening statement certainly suggests you see a very real danger of a russian offensive. well not necessarily i think it's saber wrestling and it's yeah directed for impressing the west it's a sick nod to the west and presidents a lansky from ukraine and. i think russia is trying to build up the stakes and all that to have a better position for further. orders $100.00 m. and for. these and ukraine exact as a negotiating card you also said in your opening statement that there must be consequences crisis but the kremlin says look we have every right to move our forces within our own territory these forces are still on russian territory what would you say to that yeah that's not exactly true because within the o c there are mechanisms and they are blige every participant and every member state to make transparent if you have such movem

probably to divide ukraine into several states and to to create a new ukraine so to say which would be a russia friendly. i think that's a russian strategy but at the moment on the technical level i think russia is trying to negotiate with america with the new administration of president biden and this is i would say russian style invitation to a conversation we should remember that just a few weeks ago at the u.s. president new u.s. president in a television interview. said yes putin is a killer he didn't say the word killer himself but he responded positively to the question and this is something which irritates me approaching very much and i think it's play to a certain role in the clones decision to escalate now but the problem is much deeper i think there are several problems in eastern ukraine which putin doesn't like and wants ukraine to move and to yield to russian wishes the west is not behaving like russia would like it to and maybe also putting seize an opportunity in a general joe political. constellation because in the u.s. we have a new administration which is not quite s

my guest is ukraine's foreign minister, dmytro kuleba. what did ukraine and the outside world learn from this rattling of russian sabres? foreign minister dmytro kuleba in kyiv, welcome to hardtalk. thank you. it's great to be with you. let's start with the situation on the ground. it's just a few days since the russians announced that they were redeploying their forces away from that border area close to eastern ukraine. can you confirm that has happened? it is happening. this redeployment is taking place. however, we have to remain vigilant because, first, we do not know whether all units which were deployed to the border of ukraine will be actually redeployed and whether some of them will not stay along the border or in the occupied crimea. and second, redeployment does not mean neither the end of the conflict nor full de—escalation. we're basically going back to the pre—deployment phase when our soldiers still had been killed, when violations of ceasefire in donbas were numerous. so, it's too early to speak about the end of the confli

the ukraine. to sign a different.circumstance but i would cite just 3 but the ukrainian government is likely to to launch a full ask france if we've we've seen the head of ukrainian army on several occasions in the past couple months admit that any attempt to do this would involve massive civilian casualties so so they do actually seem to be aware that you know they can't do this very easily without killing huge numbers of people but of course when they do so that will prompt a russian intervention so i think that's sort of what. their poll that we're going to go to a hard break and after about a hard break we'll continue our discussion on ukraine tensions stay with arkie. those who can the speculators and those are now the ruling elites of the world are the speculators. they can create bubbles it could be used cars this week it could be. next week it could be islands somewhere in the pacific the week after that those are bubbles within a secular collapse and ultimately when the everything bubble collapses then we hav

need to ukraine charter on distinctive partnership this article says that nato and ukraine can use a crisis consultative mechanism to consult together whenever ukraine perceives at the erect threat to its territorial integrity political independence or security and the moment has come. i thank secretary general for a very clear message of support of ukraine by gathering today we try to avoid the mistake that was made in 2014 when russia was ready to act swiftly and pursue its military goals in crimea and gone bust while our western partners were considering their reactions to what was happening on the ground russia will not be able to catch anyone by surprise anymore ukraine and our friends remains remain vigilant we do not and will not loose time and should moscow take any reckless move or start a new spirit of while and it will be costly in all census i would like to reassure you that ukraine does not want war we do not plan any offensive or escalation ukraine is devoted to diplomatic and political means of settling the conflict. today at the meeting with the secretary general we d

the martin dollars obviously not in ukraine's investment. and that's why i think they'd be all right less 2 by the by the americans but i mean that of that would be the end here. if there is a war it's like getting you know a 30. rigid ok ukraine one but the country will be broken down and i think that's it berry much all right gentlemen that's all the time we're here want to make my guest and here in moscow and i want to thank our viewers for watching us here are you see you next time remember. but the damage no certainly no blood is just flying into nationalities. as a word we told them was the we don't look like seeing the whole world needs to be. judged as coming every crisis. we can do better we should know. everyone is contributing each of our own way but we also know that this crisis will not go on forever the challenges created with the response has been so many good people are helping us. it makes us feel very proud that we're in it together. imax kaiser one more of my guide to financial survival this is the hedge fund it's a device

we are doing it for the people of ukraine.are going to live here, not imf officials. dmytro kuleba, you end with a very fair and simple point. we have to leave it there, but i thank you very much indeed forjoining me on hardtalk from kyiv. thank you. hello again. this month has been a really dry month, particularly across parts of england and wales, where we've just recorded five millimetres of rainfall so far. and that's left the ground completely dried out, desiccated and cracked in places. but there are changes on the way. on monday, we started to see low pressure move in across scotland, and that brought some thicker cloud and finally some rain. and looking at the rainfall amounts that we're expecting through the rest of this week, we'll get around 5—10 millimetres of rain. in the grand scheme of things, that's not a huge amount, but it's easily doubling what we've seen for many so far this month. so the rain, i'm sure, is going to be pretty welcome for the farmers and growers, although you probably want even more than we'

so that's not even something that ukraine can expect what ukraine is asking from nato allies and from individual governments is more military equipment lethal aid like the united states has given to ukraine it wants more training for its forces it wants more political support it wants to continue holding meetings that we've seen at nato and e.u. headquarters with ukrainian leaders showing that europe and nato stands with ukraine that doesn't mean going to war and nato is desperately hoping that deterrence works that russia doesn't push this into a real escalation of open conflict in theory ukraine would like most to become a member of nato right. yeah that hasn't always been the case that the public appetite for joining nato has gone up and down but this government president selenski has openly asked nato to rush ukrainian membership that causes nato a lot of problems you know if if ukraine were to become a member of nato article 5 would cover it that means that nato would have to go to war with part of ukraine occupied and that's why i don't think we're really going to see nato bring

the american goal is you know whichever way it goes ukraine you know ukraine's defeat it fine but now now this is knowing they can be no further resistance to getting ukraine into nato and i think the americans are playing of a dangerous game have a set a state game but i think that that's what it's like it because there's no calls addle on the thought of the americans 1st for any sort of even handed approach of a deescalation they need looking for this conflict if they didn't go you know again you know what western audiences are not very well informed i mean there was a deescalation process we had the normandy format we had the the men's one and 2 agreements were russia a guarantee for us and it's very very simple and straight forward actually can you can you can put it on one page so straightforward and when there is a call to burn deescalation we didn't because this is an intra ukraine comp like me have to remind everybody ok when in ukraine. is that meaning the dollar bonuses we call it here on this program the proposal is this is to do essential my snoring in ukraine where they c

hello and welcome to the program i'm joined efforts to resolve the 7 year war in eastern ukraine have all so far failed there have been cease fires and then almost inevitably violations of cease fires but a major flare up in fighting between russian backed separatists and ukrainian troops is now threatening to escalate the conflict beyond anything we've seen so far russia is reportedly massing its troops at the border and warning nato not to send military support to ukraine but the alliance and the united states have made it clear kiev will not be left alone if russia launches an offensive in the region we'll discuss this with our guests shortly but 1st now the in baba reports. it's pictures like this that have got the government in kiev so concerned a week ago 4 ukrainian soldiers were killed in fighting in the east now here is accusing russia of preparing to expand its military presence in the separatist controlled regions of done yes going to hanscom as well as the border with crimea to the south moscow maya but a bully davies calling the head banging on thursday ukraine's foreign

so that's not even something that ukraine can expect what ukraine is asking from nato allies and from individual governments is more military equipment lethal aid like the united states has given to ukraine it wants more training for its forces it wants more political support it wants to continue holding meetings that we've seen at nato and headquarters with ukrainian leaders showing that europe and nato stands with ukraine that doesn't mean going to war and nato is desperately hoping that deterrence works that russia doesn't push this into a real escalation of open conflict and in theory ukraine would like most to become a member of nato right. yeah that hasn't always been the case that the public appetite for joining nato has gone up and down but this government president selenski has openly asked nato to rush ukrainian membership that causes nato a lot of problems you know if if ukraine were to become a member of nato article 5 would cover it that means that nato would have to go to war with part of ukraine occupied and that's why i don't think we're really going to see nato bringi

special representative for ukraine between 20172019 under former u.s. president trump he took part in negotiations involving russia to secure a cease fire in the breakaway regions of eastern ukraine ambassador it's good to see you again it's good to have you on the program again how would you answer those people who are what is vladimir putin's in the game with ukraine. well i think it's a it's a don't mean to attack the question but it's a misunderstanding to think that curtain thinks in terms of end games putin thinks in terms of position how does he amass power and influence and how does your private over time offer to mystically without any end in sight and i think what he's done with the accumulation of military force here is to demonstrate that he has substantial military capability and the political will to act if he wants to and he's trying to demonstrate on the opposite side that the west is not willing to use force and is not well i didn't match that and therefore ukraine had better watch out so what do you make then of russia's announcement t

to to to start a fire power and by caution in ukraine i mean ukraine should be very careful not to. to create a situation like we had in georgia in 2008 when we had some weeks of fighting in a region of south ossetia and then the georgia decided we will try to liberate as they say the president saakashvili said that region and russia of course was nearby was ready in a standby motos and then the invasion was legitimized so to say yes and this is this is what russia maybe would like to see in ukraine as well russia would like to see ukraine make a mistake and maybe let itself be provoked by by the fighting of the recent weeks and this is this is probably the biggest danger and the biggest challenge for the ukrainian government but i don't see any proof or any any evidence that ukraine might do that because if you if you take a c.n.n. camera team with you you're just trying to show to the world you're trying to use the media ukrainian president is a media medium and he's a media and he used to be a comedian he used to be a television star so that's what he does and what he can what he

so that's not even something that ukraine can expect what ukraine is asking from nato allies and from individual governments is more military equipment lethal aid like the united states has given to ukraine it wants more training for its forces it wants more political support it wants to continue holding meetings that we've seen at nato and e.u. headquarters with ukrainian leaders showing that europe and nato stands with ukraine that doesn't mean going to war and nato is desperately hoping that deterrence works that russia doesn't push this into a real escalation of open conflict in theory ukraine would like most to become a member of nato right. yeah that hasn't always been the case that the public appetite for joining nato has gone up and down but this government president selenski has openly asked nato to rush ukrainian membership that causes nato a lot of problems you know if if you crane were to become a member of nato article 5 would cover it that means that nato would have to go to war with part of ukraine occupied and that's why i don't think we're really going to see nato bri

it also raises the question how far will the radio go to help ukraine. and let me put that question straight away to you because you know the russian build up has provoked strong words from the u.s. and nato but with a follow up with action in ukraine of course is not a member of nato so there is no treaty obligation there there is not and if you mean by strong reaction if you crane will be a member of nato very soon no it won't of course it will not and it's hasn't even been granted the membership action plan. he was a are talking about stronger sanctions and this is something what my dream to have like cutting off from this with system our banking international transfer system something like that roman chancellor merkel has called on the e.u. to react to events in eastern ukraine resolutely and unequivocally those were her words how could the e.u. and nato support ukraine short of sending in troops should include they send additional weapons should they in fact speed up the timetable for a ukrainian membership in nato what do you think. well at the mom

and i think that's the goal then are you don't get mean ukraine it's very bad for ukraine if they lose the dumbass but the american goal is you know whichever way it goes ukraine you know ukraine's defeat it fine but now now there's no they can be no further resistance to getting ukraine into nato and i think that america is a play of a dangerous game and i said to stay game but i think that that's what's on the like it because there's no calls addle on the thought of the americans 1st for any sort of even handed approach of a deescalation they need looking for this conflict they need to do you know and again you know western audiences are not very well informed i mean there was a b. escalation process we had the normandy format we have been the men's one and 2 agreements were russia and a guarantor and it's very very simple and straight or not so you can you can get what you can put on one page so straightforward and what they're. the call to prayer deescalation within because this is an interesting ukraine complex we have to remind everybody that ok it's within ukraine. is it really

hue and cry about what was going on between russia and ukraine has been building rather slowly and i only sort of woke up to it last week that what we were looking at was every day practically every hour we're seeing accusations from london and from washington and from nato russia has embarked on this gigantic arms buildup on the russian side of the ukrainian border and is just waiting to launch a war. to shore up the supposed to russian presence in the east of ukraine either to help the rebels or even to seize territory and possibly even to consolidate some sort of further land bridge into crimea now one of the reasons that i wasn't sort of paying sufficient attention to this is that i couldn't take this seriously that russia would actually want to wage or to embark on military action that would result in any sort of military confrontation in the east of ukraine or anywhere in europe i mean it just seems completely crazy to me yeah but that's because the view that you're getting from the for western capitals yes we're not getting the other side of it which is that. nato has been hol

special representative for ukraine between 20172019 under former u.s. president trump he took part in negotiations involving russia to secure a cease fire in the breakaway regions of eastern ukraine ambassador it's good to see you again it's good to have you on the program again how would you answer those people who are what is vladimir putin's in the game with ukraine. well i think it's a it's a don't mean to attack the question but it's a misunderstanding to think that putin thinks in terms of end games putin thinks in terms of position how does he amass power and influence and how does the apply that over time opportunistically without any end in sight and i think what he's done with the accumulation of military force here is to demonstrate that he has substantial military capability and the political will to act if he wants to and he's trying to demonstrate on the opposite side that the west is not willing to use force and is not why didn't match that and therefore ukraine had better watch out so what do you make then of russia's announcement that i

i don't see any proof of ukraine escalating because you cannot compare the forces of ukraine and russia militarily and financially and what we've seen so far in the in the years before and in the days and weeks before this escalation was the wish of the progression separatists who are backed by russia militarily. to or to to start a fire i would say and by caution in ukraine i mean are you crying should be very careful not to. to create a situation like we had in georgia in 2008 when we had some weeks of fighting in the region of south ossetia and then the georgia decided we will try to liberate as they say the president saakashvili said that region and russia of course was nearby was ready in a standby motos and then the invasion was legitimized so to say yes and this is this is what russia maybe would like to see in ukraine as well russia would like to see ukraine make a mistake and maybe let itself be provoked by by the fighting of the recent weeks and this is this is probably the biggest danger and the biggest challenge.