, ulta beauty.ill be right back. >>> good morning welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc, live from the nasdaq market site in times square i'm becky quick with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin right now you'll see the dow futures off by about 142 points. s&p futures down by 15, the nasdaq off by 26 treasury yields continue to climb, and think coney continueo squeeze a little bit the five-year's even higher than that it's 3.011 the 30 year up to 3.1555 oil prices closed at their highest level since all the way back to march. mo no give-back here. they're continuing to climb. >>> breaking news from covid vaccine maker moderna. we had novavax earlier >> moderna's saying the picture of what the fall boosters look like may be starting to shape up they have new data this morning, looking at a combo booster that protects against omicron and the original strain of the virus they say this booster provides a superior protection. they're submitting the information to regulators and hope it will be availabl

but with so many republicans behind trump, it might not be enough to ulta perceptions of what happened on that january 6th that we asked our a washington correspondence. and we so must go know whether a former u. s. president donald trump could ultimately face prosecution for his role in the capitol attack. that's going to be interesting to witness. i mean, i think the committee and certainly democrats know that republican leadership, republican voters, are not going to be swayed by what we're going to see here. over the course of these hearings, but what they wanted to do, or trying to do by laying out this carefully calibrated story with all of this evidence, is they want to make it very clear that this has to lead to some sort of accountability . and that has to go through the department of justice, that is the only agency that can actually prosecute people with crimes link to this insurrection. it has been 2 years though brent and the agency has already come under fire for not carrying out his own investigation, not pressing charges, but the department of justice has requested tran

. >>> we did get one upgrade of ulta >> i know. i was at ulta last week. they're great.k, they have really good mac. spouses out there, you can surprise people. the prices for estee lauder stuff, it's killer ulta beauty is killer. i don't need the beauty parlor because i can just -- >> just like -- >> yeah. i give myself a $20 tip when i'm finished >> jim, we're going to the keep our eye on as you said a lot of chips, not just the micron call today but watching qualcomm, the news yesterday about whether or not you supply apple for a little longer. >> i went right to the ceo, and i said, listen, what do you think? i'm obviously not going to get into the information, but nothing, crickets. and if they get -- if they can maintain that contract, then someone will say, well, apple doesn't have as much business. that's wrong and dannizeman -- >> on chips? >> is it really on >> i don't know. it would surprise me, but -- >> i think apple is going to be knockered, but i think i have to be one of 337 million people in america who know that. >> it's going to open flat, at least acc

"about-face" launches on ulta.com tomorrow and in ulta stores this summer their new song "so good" isinsurance, so you only pay for what you need. (emu squawks) if anyone objects to this marriage, speak now or forever hold your peace. (emu squawks) (the crowd gasps) no, kevin, no! not today. only pay for what you need. ♪ liberty. liberty. liberty. liberty. ♪ space. the boundary of human achievement. the new frontier. ♪♪ eh. ♪♪ it's not time to escape. it's time to engage. it's time to plant more trees. hoo! ♪♪ time to build more trust. time to make more space for all of us. so while the others look to the metaverse and mars, let's stay here and restore ours. yeah, it's time to blaze our trail. 'cause the new frontier? it ain't rocket science. ♪♪ it's right here. ♪♪ one prilosec otc in the morning blocks heartburn all day and all night. prilosec otc prevents excess acid production that can cause heartburn. so don't fight heartburn, block it. with prilosec otc. ♪ ♪ for those, who love peanut butter so don't fight heartburn, block it. and those, who want to get married to peanut butter i

it's a necessity so ulta is a name and two tech stocks i love, stuart.is my highest conviction tech play. i think youtube is going to be the biggest hit for google over the next 10 years. you had dan ives on. he's spot-on. tech has been right this year. i think it's overdone. if you're putting new money to work in the market today, you mix it with names like colgate, ulta, but also names like google , microsoft is our other tech name. i know you like this , stuart, subscription-based revenue. tell me one company that's going to cancel their microsoft office or their outlook during a recession. it's not going to happen so the thats software subscription growth is great in my book. last one, coca cola. that's like religion down here in atlanta. it's paying close to a 3% dividend, only two times in recent history has that dividend ever got above 3%, so this is a time to lock in a great dividend on a great household name like coca cola, stuart. stuart: okay recapping, you've got ulta, google, microsoft, coca cola, and golgate-palmolive. what's the dividend y

the issues raised in he, ulta lay down in potsdam and above all, europe's post wall architecture. germany was to pay reparations, can be deprived to part of its territories. koenigsberg and its surrounding areas. would it be seated to the ussr? mm. say using gift with my memphis. sure. she'd, houston's ivy. she says course i also have plenty of pool. my sheer branyon, i've done newest work for and none of the newest kimball and mush nice from richard gam. dublin yeah. could scrub the relish of shit. cheer put you at each cut on her horse fellowship or your leg pushed the wine leah, should the norse, what a japanese dread is the lowest with the idea that the soviet by come is the civil war proven undisturbed. this solid assurance that the russians are coming in on schedule, filling rights in his diary, his salary will be in the jap war by august 5th. he disney jeff, when that occurred full thing its obligations to the allies in august 1945. the red army conducts and lightning fast. 20 day operations against the 1500000 strong one tommy. ah! with no military necessity, america dropped atomi

on the middle, the way in the, the tourists serrano kramer. freeman notice for delivery, but i mean ulta or see did, ah ah, animal rights demonstrations like this, a commonplace in european cities. the whole population of dorm bus has been showing as a terrorist. we witnessed a huge information war, waged against the dorm was people, and rush, everything. basically what was told in the western mainstream media was just absolute lie. and when i came here 1st time in the beginning of 15, and i saw this beautiful people union and i understood the magnitude of july, i wasn't sure even i knew that these happen as why the reason why i can. but when i saw in my own eyes, that they were treated worse than the door worse than any any more. so the demonstration against the russian world in the western propaganda is a very terrible team. it's very frightful, t ah. western and ukrainian mass media often keep silent about alleged crimes committed by nationalists battalions, frequently failing to report accurately and blaming the militiamen for the victims . the screen just ourselves touched every day

it is a classic oliver chan note with a -- about altar -- about ulta which is beauty products.says it is recession resistant because of the sale of lipstick. lisa: i love it. a lot of tones in the notes is what has been priced in already and how much i we priced in a recession in deeper stocks and how much have stocks been bid up so much, so high that that is a no go? i am looking at people pricing in scenarios that are gloomy and doomy. at what point do we realize we are going to a nadir in terms of sentiment? you just have to wonder, how much gloom can people take before people step back and say what has been thrown out with the bathwater? tom: really well said. this is the heart of the matter into june and july. mike wilson over at morgan stanley, the recession draw down is already 60% of the gloom. kailey: he said that his father to go. 3000 is the level he is looking at on the s&p 500. you also happy to oppenheimer saying the market -- you also have peter drop in hammer say it is vulnerable to further deterioration. mark jp morgan says too much recession risk has been pric

and popularity in sections of the party in the past, worrying that he may util, actually move now to ulta trading arrangements with you involving northern ireland and the republic of ireland, meanwhile, some of those rebels have already signaled what may be their next move. warning, johnson this morning, that if there is a significant change, a real change of direction in the coming months, well, they may lobby for the altering of the rules in the party to force another vote on his leadership in the autumn turned to i'll bring the places there from london, thanks. center. the the united nations have heard accusations of human trafficking and exploitation in ukraine to promote se perpetrators taking advantage of the war. the special representative on sexual violence in complex address. the security council for put it isn't human traffic goes well, it's not a tragedy. in virginia, g, women and children fleeing the conflict being targeted for trafficking and exploitation. in some cases facing further exposure to the risk while seeking refuge. there been multiple reports from survivors of rus

retailer we like is ulta as we think about the low end, value is very important.ry outlet and planet fitness are great ideas in what we are recommending. >> oliver, that is interesting about going out. i know we have so many years where it felt we were stuck inside and pent-up demand. maybe we want to update the wardrobes or makeup. does recession change that >> gas prices a factor which could negatively impact traffic. however, a lot of newness in beauty and a lot of customers in the field. it is a lower ticket item as you know courtney, we have covered walmart and target and costco for a long time. these are great business models which are less expensive and as interest rates go up, they can be nice defensive opportunities as well. there is something to watch. curbside pickup. product execution. omni experience at target and walmart is true. however, as we all saw with too much home product and consumer shifted rapidly and the stimulus was tougher than expected. the consumer is still stable unemployment at 3.6% is an attractive and positive number at the low end

then names like ulta. is it a small enough ticket item that they still wanted to go to -- the store. it's an event. and you buy something for not a ton of money. i feel like there is still rooms there. >> a big difference between a bureau and a lip stick in terms of price point. >> always fun for me to go try on make up. >> you had to listen. >> i don't want -- just the regular. it was very. >> well first of all, two thirds of the market, two thirds of stocks trade with the market. i would agree with karen. luxury will be a problem. i think that you have to worry about large tech still with a rising rate environment. >> our next guest said the fed strategy isn't just a policy error but a ponzi scheme. dan morehead. great to have you with us. your letter was very interesting. i didn't know that the fed did not buy any bonds for what 95 years or so and then they went all in. walk us through why policy is now a ponzi scheme? >> we have -- the fed used to control the overnight rate and even that has been way b

prett pretty much ulta, tj maxx. best buy that's the real deal not nike having something positive to say. the evidence is look at stockex and retail sites, prices have fallen through the floor that was a market when crypto was up, nasdaq was up, everybody was working from home. the real consumer is not as excited to buy the second or third pair of air jordans for $900 on a resale site. that's the real consumer, not what nike is talking about in fact, i wouldn't be surprised if nike succumbs to the weakening consumer picture evidence of why the market agrees with me, this is barely doing anything on the heels of a pretty good earnings quarter they have been construed as figuring it out. bigger picture, supply chain problems are still here, jim may be right, inflation may have peaked, for some categories we know definitively it has problem is going from 8.5% inflation to 7.5% inflation does not do anything for the reality on the ground amongst main street, amongst consumer so i think as shakespeare said, the dye is cas

. >>> a few upgrades and down grades today three upgrades for goldman, mcdonald's, ulta getting movedher because of resilience and customer loyalty on the other hand there were a number of down grades based on weakening macro conditions on upstart morgan stanley writing rising rates will hamper demand, cutting carnival saying it sees a zero dollar per share the company has to endure another plus three chip names taken down at bank of america the maturity of the smartphone cycle and elevated inventory now mike santoli in today's dashboard. >> that preponderance of ratings changes reflects the fact that as of ten days ago facts we still had an unusually high number of buy ratings. this tracks earnings the net revision to earnings, basically for every six companies you have ten that are decreased. that's your net minus four number what i find interesting is when we've been here before you take this back, deep, nasty recessions covid crash. the sovereign debt and u.s. debt default crisis 2018 and 2019. a lot of talk out there analysts have been slow, they're complacent, not reckoning with

demographics now, something happened there that getting into target was a big game changer as it was with ulta? >> well, i think our strength, we're a pioneer digitally, a digitally native brand and our strength of consumers bottom line, we have the number one mass e-commerce and our value equation appealed to target. target has been a phenomenal partner. they're our langest standing retail partner we grew our business there over 40%. we just passed neutragena. >> but they have an unlimited app budget how is that possible >> i think it's more than how much you spend with the consumer it is how you engage them. we're a pioneer digitally. we're one of the first on tiktok our latest challenge generated 14 billion views, four different hashtag challenges we have done. we're one of the first beauty companies in gaming. we have a channel on twitch. we tend to be where gen z tends to be and we engage and entertain them. >> i have e.l.f. cosmetics and dunkin did this work? >> it works phenomenal well. it does. because if you think about it, we're two like minded disrupters you put these two brands tog

discussion airy customer and that changes, you're better off being a five below or dollar tree or ultatead of lululemon. there's choices the consumers make in these times and there's no question if we run into a recession there will be tenants that leave shopping centers. the real issue is are there going to be other tenants that want to backfill, and at this point there's so little construction in the subsector i do expect the demand is just going to out pace supply. i think we're going to run out of space in the next 90 days and that hasn't happened in my career, ever. liz: okay that's a headline. really? you're going to run out of space you're able to lease to people? what would you say, this is a real dream but if you had jay powell's ear, because there is a 90% chance we will see a 75 basis point hike july 27, at the next meeting. real estate is very sensitive, obviously, to interest rates. what would you say to him? >> yeah. well, i'm not sure i would have that chance, but the reality is real estate fundamentals, the operations are doing very well and when i say run out of space

in in all the typical inland spots like ulta, mont. towards filet ho and vacaville 10 degrees warmer right now and napa than yesterday. overnight loaves are going to be in the upper forties low fifties. beautiful day beautiful week ahead, and it's not an extended period of heat thursday, friday and then temperatures dropped down and i bring it up because we talked we mostly in the weather report. the only thing i care about right now is getting to the first range, right staying out of fire danger. in this pattern will elevate the fire danger. but then it should be elevate quickly. um, as we go forward. so there you go there. the forecast highs for tomorrow. julius de elevated word. i don't think it is escalate. it is elevate. yes, deescalate. how about just lower checked out, mike? i don't think i'm inaudible word. anyone in napa 78 in vallejo. these are the forecast highs. um and again going gate bridge. nobody on it. temperatures tomorrow warmer than today. and then we're gonna have, um, hopefully, we'll see a pretty significant call

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hard landing but a soft landing david, everyone is trying to get ahead of recession i saw a piece on ulta that was positive remember weed say a couple stocks, tractor supply the research reads like that right now. you read it and say, wow so all we're trying to figure out is -- >> i find it a little hard to believe. >> i do too. the consumer is good retail sales >> still very strong i'm not hearing a doozy of a recession. certainly, there are many who believe there's at least a 50% chance we have a recession, but within that camp, many of those people would still say it's going to tb fairly modest in terms of -- >> well, if that's the case, you buy the stock market >> really right now, but have we seen the revision in earnings estimates we truly do? are multiples reflective of the decline in earnings that would take place even in a modest recession. >> that's a great point. new corpuz reports today, five times earnings >> three years worth of earnings. >> you're looking at maybe -- i did that for tonight >> a proof to buy it just two years worth of earnings >> look, i experienced this --