valuation that we have, the relatively low interest rate hurdle, the excess liquidity out there, the underownership by a lot of investors. i think there's 84 upside potential through the year. >> first quarter earnings coming out the next few weeks, those who feel expectations door high, what do you think? >> well, i think earnings are going to grow, just modestly this year, probably in the 5% range. i also think that probably expectations are a little bit high. but i'm not sure the driving force will be earnings this year. i think it's going to be more about this valuation risings on earnings we already have. we started the year about 13 times earnings, now a little over 14, i think we might rise to 15 times earnings on a little over $100 earnings, a $1,500 price target. >> retail investor, evidence suggests they are not in this market participating right now. volume has been low, the lowest in about a decade. why do you think that is? where are they investing? and is it too late to get into the stock market for them? >> i think it's testament to the great 2008 crisis that has left a legacy of fea

we have, the relatively low interest rate hurdle, the excess liquidity that's out there, the underownership by a lot of investors. so i do think there's more upside potential here through the year. >> but we do have a period of reckoning coming up. first quarter earnings will be coming out over the next few weeks. there are those who feel that expectations are too high. what do you think? >> well, i think earnings are going to grow just modestly this year, probably in the 5% range. so i also think that probably expectations are a little bit high. but i'm not sure the driving force, bill, will be earnings this year. i think it's going to be more about this valuation rising on earnings we already have. so we started the year about 13 times earnings. we're now a little over 14. i think we might rise to 15 times earnings this year on a little over $100 earnings. and that's kind of where i'm looking at about a $1500 price target. >> you mentioned the retail investor. evidence suggests that they are just not in this market participating right now. volume's been low, lowest in about a deck aid. wh