more the united states than china or russia. there is not much positive appeal there. tiesmportance of economic enormouslyremains dependent on the united states and on the united states allies. for its sustained economic growth. largest trading partner of most countries in the world. made, seldom often made is the next point. most of that trade is in the form of intermediate goods that go to china for final assembly to be put in a box to go to north america, japan, and europe. go?h way do dependencies experts come to the united states. exports go to the united states, japan, and south korea. 80% with the european union. 7% of u.s. exports go to china. that is a very disproportionate kind of interdependence and for china and for russia, they cannot do much for one another. accelerate,eally sustain, transform their economic strength or ability to bring prosperity or fundamentally change their military capabilities. they both need factors and relationships available in the west. and more broadly. china --f russia and they seek to gain advantages by closer withby being each

in modern terms, china was a country, but not yet a nation. while japan was a unitedy regimented dictatorship. second reason lies in the use that each country made of our western civilization. let's see what china took. you will notice that this is a very old piece of film. actually it is more than 30 years old, and it shows a very great man. in 1911, this man fathered a people's revolution, which brought to an end china's ancient imperial government and began its new era of a modern republic. in chinese history it secured a place as george washington. he and his followers chose for the cornerstone of their new republic chinese words that would echo those of another. "government of the people, by the people, for the people. to make these principles become reality, they built more schools and colleges. they established scholarship so that their young men and women could go forth to the universities of america and europe and bring back to their own country other western ideas. this new generation returned to china with new techniques of industry. architecture, science,

united states is about 19%. --t is not per capita gpd gdp. china is on the rise as the cresting now. is the united states so much more powerful than the two countries? ,hat this power means in 2017 when russia is a much poorer country and spend less on its military. it is very dependent on oil revenue for its budget, yet what we are talking about now in the united states is how it is able to shake the foundation of the united states democracy by the democratic nationalist community and electoral offices. -- arend of world rem? we in? is it multi-polar? is the u.s. still the preeminent power? david, you are looking at me. you made the mistake of making eye contact. >> i will not make it again. [laughter] actually is an absolutely key question. what kind of world are we living in? are we seeing the formation of an new international system? there is a huge amount of commentary on this. i am not sure with the new system will look like. i think we are not in the old system. it is not bipolar. --hink the unipolar moment it is not quite multi-polar word -- multiplayer. in their meeting earli

china. at the united states embassy in china there was colonel william mayer.tell you a happy and. >> the first thing they did was to prepare their usual fake alibi. it was not a damage railroad track as it has been in muncher area. disappeared and kidnapped by the chinese. japan's honor has been insulted. once more the insult must be avenged. of july 7, 19 37, at the marco polo bridge, the jap war machine struck. [bombs exploding] the invaders were in control of two cities. it looks as if they will have another walk over. sat back toaps organize a new conquest. a peaceloving japanese did not want a war if they could get their land without one. this time they were in for a rude surprise. this time, instead of protesting and negotiating, the chinese struck back. , but athe north shanghai where the japs least expected it. to understand, we must knows something about the city of shanghai itself or it situated near the mouth of the yangtze river, it is the biggest city in china. in thelargest seaport far east, it dominated the car mars and foreign trade -- commerce

now her millions belong not only to united china, but also to the united nations. r of being the chief of staff of all the chinese. division after division are being thrown from china to -- flung from china to india where they were equipped with the most modern american weapons. trained and hardened to spearhead the coming drive against japan. through enemy-held territory and new burma, the new road was being pushed. over mountains. through jungles and swamps. from india to china, to connect with the old burma road. in the jungle on either side, american and chinese patrols controlled the road and strike at the jacks. planes were brought in. ♪ announcer: from india, and airport command airplane takes off every six minutes loaded with artillery, jeeps, ammunition. man and supplies for the armies of china. over this burma skyway. over these mountains 16,000 feet high, more tonnage is being flown into china than was ever tracked in over the old burma road. in the skies over china, japan faces new opposition. younger chinese, many of them trained in the fields of arizon

25% of china's exports come to the united states. 40% of china's exports go to the united states, japan, and south korea. 80% of china's exports go to those three countries, plus the european union. 7% of u.s. exports go to china. that's a very, very disproportionate kind of interdependence. for china and for russia, they can't do much for one another that would really accelerate, transformed their economic strength and ability to bring prosperity and fundamentally change their military capabilities. they both need relationships available in the west. do each of russia and china seek to gain opportunities and , are byes by dangling becoming closer friends with one another? of course they do. fall for that.o look at the hard numbers. i would disagree with kathryn, it's a different set of numbers. i think yours are based on tpp. the numbers show that the u.s. economy is around 24%. that is down a whopping 2% since 1979, when china began its fabulous rise. we have dropped 2%. china's share of the world economy in world bank numbers is about 17%. that's almost exactly the same as china's sh

phrase i've heard recently from chinese officials relating to the original korean war is that china and the united states were dragged into war in korea. and i've heard that phrase often enough to think that it's become a certain, has a certain official status. of course, the reality is that china became involved in the korean war because stalin told mao to do it. and when you tell that story, i gave a lecture on the korean war, you realize that you're entering a very, very fraught terrain because you have to acknowledge that the founder of people's republic was made a fool of by stalin -- >> yes. turned into a proxy for soviet policy in 1950, '51. >> absolutely. >> we have time, i think, for one more question, graham, and then we're going to wrap it up. i'm going to allow one of our senior faculty members to answer the last question. i managed to get a freshman in, i'm pleased that i did that. >> i'm glad a freshman came. >> one of my students -- [laughter] >> not surprising. >> don't tell me you ordered him to play. >> scott from the political science department. graham, like you, i was really w

closed the door after world war two initially the united states wanted to set up a client regime in china but that failed the communists took over and closed the open door and so the united states decided that career would be its first bastin against the encroachment of china and the closing of asia to american economic penetration ok but i mean let's talk about this the in this new killer thread i mean why don't they want to talk about that that's very important and that's pressing right now can you answer that boris go ahead home well you know the the real the real threat for the united states from the beginning was always china and you know we talk about one hundred sixty thousand troops stationed across the. western pacific but there are also nuclear weapons surrounding china china is aware of that and you know the united states uses south korea as its primary base to you know basically send messages to china that. want so the united states is talking about a possible war a nuclear war with north korea because of china well that i don't know that that doesn't seem what. we well what w

united states. we do not want to allow china to be ever more assertive. they had tos what say the global times, a chinese state-run newspaper. be makingina should clear of north korea launches missiles first and the you -- host: what is china's's in funny against the present -- in fighting against the peninsula? if they took action against north korea, the north koreans would go crazy. during the first nuclear crisis over korea, the leader of north korea, the grandfather of the he calledader, together his military people and asked them if he could beat the and then asked if they lost, what would happen and his son spoke up and said if we lose, i will destroy the of because what good is the earth with north korea? withannot really do that nuclear weapons and biological agents, but he can make a -- ofdous amount of him damage. china worries they could fire missiles at them on the peninsula and the chinese have deployed a mintz -- missile defense system because they are worried. host: joe osama line. caller: -- joe is on the line. caller: you are doing a won

and i think all the countries including the united states china russia and japan and south korea etc we need to be on the same page we cannot talk about war one day and talk about peace the other day we need to because sr and in our message projected towards d p r k on the other hand i think countries like china the united states and russia japan etc we need to close ranks rather then for example whenever there is a change for better or for worse you just point your accusing finger at your partners for example the united states should stop china stop pointing a finger against china building up a link about whatever there is the problem of d.p. r. k. in terms of its nuclear program launch vehicle program with china u.s. trade that's ridiculous that's really really indulge in fun to see because you are turning a good ally a good partner a good counterpart in terms of trade and economic relations into a potential friction point therefore i think i urge all the united states to mature up and grow up and really become a leader of the world rather then it becomes a frederick in terms of de

the united states, japan, china, russia, europeans, africans, south americans, we are all together. what are we saying? we are all denouncing north korea's outrageous act against another un member state, japan. we are all demanding north korea stop any future missile launches. we are all demanding north korea abandon its nuclear weapons. north korea has violated every single security council resolution and violated international law. we are all calling on every nation to strictly, fully and immediately implement all security council sanctions on north korea. the rul world is united against north korea. there is no doubt about that. it is time for the north korean regime to recognize the danger they're putting themselves in. the united states will not allow their lawlessness to continue.

states the united states is only about fifteen to twenty percent now of their exports. you know china is becoming less and less dependent on the united states more dependent on their domestic market and also other global export markets . terms of panicking about the india china situation i mean the these are the types of situations that can you know with that can quickly easily grow out of control so . from a military standpoint i would spec trying is going to handle india pretty easily we just hope that it doesn't escalate beyond that. is the rise and some of these basic industrial commodities like copper etc is this being driven by kind of a renewed inflation and china you know the last time we spoke there was a side bad chinese economy was shrinking g.d.p. was collapsing was understated and that the downward move in commodities would continue to reflect a deflation in china is that now reversing because certainly in the commodity markets and even in the gold market that's been more a bond for five or six years now we're saying well what looks like inflation is this is this where it

china has what they regard as historical claim to the south china sea. >> it would be roughly as though the united states claimed to own the gulf of mexico. >> china's belief is that there ancient territorial rights is the result of all of those voyages of admiral jing he and that as a result, they own that water space and all the hydrocarbons that are under it. 80 percent of pacific trade passes through this south china sea. and to reinforce this claim, china is building artificial islands and reefs , many of them. thousands of acres. and they're militarizing men. those are airstrips. each one of those islands becomes kind of an aircraft carrier from which china seeks to operate and it reinforces their claim under international law. fortunately, we have allies in this region. we have japan which is increasing its military spending and is more inclined to operate alongside us. wehave south korea . an improving economy, a new president. our allies are the heart of our maritime strategy in this region and it's good that we have them because we have an enormous practical problem. >> china is a strate

for the peace and stability of east asia and east china sea, we will continue to cooperate with the united states. on the south china sea, we have confirmed that we need to continue to engage ourselves and watch for any acts that would impede freedom of navigation. under the severe security environment, under all situations, the alliance secures a seamless response and is extremely important. and we agreed that we would properly examine ways to strengthen the alliance. in the area of cyberspace, we would promote the japan-u.s. cooperation in new new areas. we will promote more than ever before cooperation and security and defense. the coastal nations of the indo pacific region and the capacity building in the marie security for japan will provide assistance to the tune of approximately $250 million in three years to 2019. we want to deepen our cooperation with the united states on this front as well. for the transparent economic development of this region, between japan and the united states, we agreed we would closely cooperate. after the conference today, we are from that it is indispens

the problem is the united states and china seen the issue differently. what the united states would like to see, appears that china strangle north korea by cutting off oil, trade. in a sense, force north korea to its knees. china thinks it is a problem with instability. you do not know what would happen in a case where north korea was put in that position. they look at north korea and see themselves in the 1960's and 1970's when the world was inching them and developing -- and preventing them from developing nuclear programs. they were determined to continue the weapons despite the sanctions. and believe it is true with north korea. trying to strangle it is probably not likely to work. are willing to help get north korea to table. they see it as an issue between north korea and united states. they believe they made efforts to solve it has to come from the u.s. and north korea. host: let's go to angela in new orleans, a democrat. good morning. caller: good morning. thank you for taking my call. sir, bravo. we need more science right now than ever. i believ

china sea. it would be roughly as though the united states claimed to own the gulf of mexico. china's belief is that their ancient territorial right is the result of all of those voyages of admiral and as a result they own that water space, 80% of pacific trade passes through the south china sea and to reinforce this claim, china is building artificial islands and reefs, many of them, thousands of acres and they're militarizing, each one of those islands becomes a kind of aircraft carrier from which china seeks to operate and it reinforces their claims under international law. fortunately we have allies in the region, we have japan, which is increasing its military spending and is more incline to operate along side us, we have south korea, booming economy, new president, our allies are the heart of our merit time strategy in the region and it's good that we have them because we have an enormous tactual problem. china is a strategic challenge. the tactical problem is right here. it's north korea. this is similar -- kim jong un, kim jong un, untested, untribed, morbidly obese, ad

china sea. it would be roughly though the united states claimed to own the gulf of mexico. china's belief is that they're and chengt territorial right is the result of all of those voyage offed a jink he vument they own that water with space and all of the hydrocarbon that are under it. 80% of pacific trade passes through this south china sea. to reenforce this claim china is building artificial island and reefs, many of them. thousands of acres and they're militarizing e those are airstrips you see. each one of those islands becomes a kind of -- aircraft carrier from which china seeks to operate and it reenforcing their claims under international law. fortunately, we have allies in this region. we have japan which is increasing its military spending and is more inclined to operate alongside us. we have south korea. a booming economy, new president. our allies are the heart of our maritime strategy this this region and it's good that we have them because we have an enormous tactical problem. china is a strategic challenge that tactical problem is right here. it's north korea

so in effect north korea acts like a buffer between china and the united states forces. and given the buffer, from china's you, considerable cost. so now let me explain this to concept i introduced. don't have enough time to go into details, but you can find more about it in my book. the essential approach is not to look for shared interest. it's not to look for consummate the interests. but to look for interests which are different. the idea that if you rank china's interest from what's really, really important to them but second, and lay low, and do the same for the united states, and then you want to have a deal which we give them things which they think are very important to them but not important to us. if we asked them to give up things which are very important to me that they don't consider my high cost. you can find it then you have a very different kind of deal. it's not apples and oranges. i have a lot of apples. i don't even care for them. they love the apples, and they have oranges which i'm dying for and they can give them fast enough way. that's the idea. if

>> you have the united states thating tariffs on china are so severe that beijing has no choice but toomply. for instance, if trump were to say to the chinese, you can support north korea, you can do business with the united hates but you cannot do both. if the chinese thought we meant it, that would be the 10 -- the tipping point. nejra: where with things go from then -- from there. ? with a have to denuclearize? >> i think so. important thing they supplies confidence to regime members that they are safe from the international community. to say we don't support those things, we will make sure the south koreans take you over, the north korean regime would change. they would probably drop their weapons and mike it rid of kim jong-un and we would be on the road to a solution. not a guarantee. i think china has this in their power to do if it wants to. vonnie: bringing trade into this whole dialogue, if china wanted to play a greater role in the geopolitical environment, how does it react to this salvo from the trump administration on trade? first by saying these intellectual property inv

they act like a buffer the tween china and united states forces. ow let me explain this consequence. there's not really enough time so we'll see if we can find more about it in my little book avoiding war with china. the central approach is not to look for shared interests. it's not to look for complementary interests but to look for interest are different. the idea is if you rank china's interest form what's really important to them, you do the same for the united states and then you have a deal to give them things that are very important to them but not important was. if we asked them to give us things which are very important to me but they don't important, if you can find it, then you have a very different deal. it's not apples to oranges. i have a lot of apples. i don't really care for them. they have a lot of apples. they have oranges which i'm dying for and they can give them fast enough away. that's the idea. if you do this for a moment, what you find, you find it important to us to stop north korea from developing a norse nuclear program. w

a stance as the united states when it comes to north korea such as russia and china in fact the russian envoy to the united nations mr actually said that they do want the north korean bit of the korean peninsula to be denuclearized but at the same time by adopting this resolution it also russia also wants these six party talks to continue on the peaceful solution to this matter also we've had reactions obviously from pyongyang which reacted with indignation said that there will be a righteous response according to the state agency to the new sanctions and also one of the officials quoted by the state agency in north korea said that if the united states things that it will be safe by imposing these sanctions against pyongyang it's a wrong assumption so clearly tensions are running high but again not the first time that these sanctions came into fruition and as you mentioned it's not the first time to have been introduced against north korea right so what's new this time. well the biggest change to the sanctions this time is that it concerns the things that north koreans see as the main b

china should stay neutral. "if north korea launches an attack that threatens the united states and china should stay neutral, butf the united states attacks first and tries to overthrow north korea's government china will stop them." that from a chinese state-run newspaper. president trump ratcheting up his rhetoric against north korea on thursday, warning pyongyang afteracking u.s. allies disclosed plans to fire missiles over japan to land near the u.s. pacific territory. north korea's most important ally in trading partner has , during thealls for current crisis. the widely read state-run global times in china published by the ruling communist party's people's daily wrote that beijing is not able to persuade washington or pyongyang to back down. china has long worried any conflict on the korean peninsula or a repeat of the 1950 to 1953 korean war could unleash a wave of destabilizing refugees into the northeast and end up with a unified company with the u.s.. they say china will "firmly resist and a side which wants to change the status quo of the areas where china's interest are concerned." as we look at that

the problem is i think the united states and china see the issue very differently. what the united states would like to see, it appears, is that china would essentially strangle north korea by cutting off oil and cutting off all trade answer to force north korea to its knees. what we have learned from our chinese colleagues is that china things that that is a problem with instability, that you do not know what would happen in a case where north korea was put in that position. they look at north korea and see themselves back in the 1960's and 1970's when the world was sanctioning them, trying to keep them from developing a nuclear program. they were determined to continue the development of those weapons despite the sanctions, and they believe the same is true with north korea. therefore trying to strangle, and a sense, is probably not likely to work. i think they are willing to try korea to theorth table, but i think they see this as, ultimately, an issue between north korea and the united states and believe the main everts to solve it have to come from the u.s. and

the united states, japan, china, russia, europeans, africans, south americans, we are all together. what are we saying? we are all denouncing north korea's outrageous act against another un member state, japan. we are all demanding north korea stop any future missile launches. we are all demanding north korea abandon its nuclear weapons. north korea has violated every single security council resolution and violated international law. we are all calling on every nation to strictly, fully and immediately implement all security council sanctions on north korea. the rul world is united against north korea. there is no doubt about that. it is time for the north korean regime to recognize the danger they're putting themselves in. the united states will not allow their lawlessness to continue. and the rest of the world is with us. thank you. >> i now give the floor to the representative of china >> thank you, mr. president. the security resolutions contain clear provisions with ballistic missile capability. china opposes such launch activity by this in violation. they call to comply with t

expects china and in on north korea, the view of the united states, china has not done enough. at means there is a heightened possibility of a trade war between the united states and china. that becomes relevant for financial markets. you will have retaliation and archives of unintended consequences. tracy: it is interesting you bring that up. i was reading a note from david wu at back of america merrill lynch, he says investors are not pricing the potential risks of a showdown between u.s. and china over north korea. he is recommending people start buying the japanese yen as a relative safe haven. is it time to think about safe haven plays? hans: you could argue that. marketse a lot of other that it is a risk environment. triggered by central bank buying and so forth. however, when it comes to hedges against political or geopolitical risk, i prefer investments in gold rather than yen. tracy: a goldbug with us. keep that thought. we will be discussing that more on the show. we are also going to be getting a outlook for the gold real estate market with a head of research as well

discussed our concern about the security environment in the east china sea and south china sea. the united states and japan oppose any unilateral action that seeks to undermine japan's administration of the sink a reaffirmnds and we article five of the u.s.-japan security treaty that covers these islands. we also oppose militarization activity in the south china sea. maritime disputes should be settled peacefully and maintain the freedom of navigation in accordance with the united nations conventions on the law of the sea. we maintain our unwavering commitment to the 2015 guidelines for u.s.-japan defense cooperation and we have instructed our staff to accelerate their implementation. we also will explore new and expanded activities and intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance, training and exercises, research and development, capacity building and joint per shared use of facilities. we discussed our deterrence to ensure the security and stability of japan and the asia-pacific region. we planted deep in our engagement through our extended deterrence and dialogue. both the united stat

china and the sensfic. .. provides a con fliewns of interest between the united states and china in the pacific. let's turn to the atlantic as we skip around oceans and this is how the chapter is structured a history of the ocean. the geoplainings what it is like to sail in that ocean as a mariner. the atlantic is the ultimate tran are sit zone in hurst in so many ways. and it begins with mariner who is come from spain and portugal and prince henry bottom right everyone would recognize >> >> the determination to resupply the europeans in those two words with those two small hinges of the convoy if we did not control the of the antic we would not have succeeded in either of those wars.se convo that is the american view of the atlantic today we are challenged by vladimir putin by the insurgents of the russian navy but the problem vif is we keep looking at that strategic terrain on the map that is not there. it is the mind of vladimir putin to rebuild the of the russian navy highly capable of the next three years they'll add 100 ships to the fleet we will be challenged on our coast in the greenland

the issues that they have among themselves like russia and the last is between themselves or china and the united states or china and russia there's also another reality that we have a dangerous dangerous growth of terrorism in afghanistan under the u.s. watch and doing the u.s. traditions this needs an explanation to the afghans because we are the ones that suffer first to the region because the consequence is reached addition. and to the global object of of the war on terror someone needs to answer the united nations as to what when truong do we want extremism to grow further and turn to grow further and keep affecting everybody from simply just broke to paris to sweden to germany to. the muslim world or do we want to find a solution if the us wants to find a solution the answer is in cooperation not in treating competition or jealousy let me ask you to do more because this is a rhetorical question that i know you're often pose in your interest but are you yourself confident in the answer to that question do you think the united states genuinely wants to put an end to extremist and terrorist pr

but we also have to understand that it's in china and russia's interests to lever the united states out of south korea and ultimately away from our relationship with japan. so this will be a very difficult set of discussions with north korea. >> if we engage in talks with north korea, this rogue nation, how does that discourage other countries from doing what he has done? >> it doesn't discourage it, but the point is that starting in 2002 once we declared an axis of evil, we said -- president bush said that we can't let the worst countries have the worst weapons. it was a challenge. we were focused on the middle east, north korea already had a head start in the nuclear weapons program. they took up the challenge and now they have the weapon. so the situation is different. we have to do what is best for the american people and our allies. and it's true, it would be better if a rogue nation like we branded north korea doesn't have nuclear weapons. but the fact is they do. so we have to recognize that and deal with it it. can we strengthen the nonproliferation regime? yes, we could try to

china needs to do much more. the united states wants china to enforce existing sanctions, added additional sanctions to north korea. this is on top of the trump administration, according to reports, that it's going to enforce or look to enforce certain retaliatory trade mechanisms for what the chinese have done as far as intellectual property theft. state department official says that's been an issue between the united states and china and china's response remains insufficient. as u.s. officials tell fox news, intelligence officials tracked a chinese missile drill over the weekend that used a marked up version of u.s. artillery and u.s. stealth planes. the official said basically it was a message the chinese were sending. >> bret: rich edson live at the state department. overseas, the taliban claiming responsibility for a suicide bombing a troop convoy in southern afghanistan that killed two american soldiers. >> two u.s. service members killed today as afghanistan's deadly summary violence continues. the taliban and attack

america has already recognized the people's republic of china as early as 1979. how could the unitedstates stop panama? and then i think last panel already addressed that, the names of five taiwan foreign missions been changed from the republic of china or taiwan into taipei. could americans do anything? no. and the famous case, a political activist, i think his wife came here. americans also tried to help. he had already been detained for 145 days i guess. americans, i think americans tried to help. you know how many taiwanese citizens involved the overseas electronic fraud cases in foreign countries? and then there would be repatriated, not back to taiwan but to mainland china for further investigation and even trial. taiwan try to get them back to taiwan, but so far we sent our message to china, never been answered. so could americans help? this is another major concern of ours. i think we talked to american friends, but at the end of the day still didn't make much difference. now, last but not least, the pla, military aircraft. they virtually is circling taiwan's airspace or flyi