now, earlier, we werejoined by the chair of global public health at the university of edinburgh, deviar and she said a national lockdown in england is inevitable. in the position england is in, it seems inevitable they have to slow it down, and, unfortunately, nobody wants a lockdown but it seems like there's no other choice right now, because uncontrolled spread be even worse. is this action that you think the government should have taken earlier? yes, well, i actually go back to the summer and i say we had a lockdown, we've been under some kind of restrictions since march, we got numbers pretty low injune. what did we do wrong injune which means we are not in a better position now? and, for me, there are three things that east asian countries have done. many of them never even locked down, which was, first, strict border restrictions. you don't keep re—importing chains of infection. second, voluntary good guidance to the public on avoiding the virus at all ages, you don't want to get this even if you are young and, third, a test, trace, isolate system which works well for flare ups

professor linda bauld from the university of edinburgh, thank you very much. hello there. as been affecting the north and the west of the country to today. it's been very wet in northern ireland. lots of isobars in the charts. isobars in the charts it's wet in northern ireland. lots of isobars in the charts it's been a dry day, but through the night, we will see this band of rain spritzer eastwards, a little bit drierfor northern ireland but it stays very wet for scotland, particularly western parts of scotland. notice the temperatures, double figures for most, so quite a mild night. into tuesday, that rain clears away from east pretty quickly, a brighter day with sunshine, but we will see lots of showers developing, a cluster of them moving up the irish sea. some could be heavy with a rumble of thunder and longer spells of rain. wet and windy for the far north of scotla nd wet and windy for the far north of scotland but, actually, it windy day for all areas, with heels around irish seacoast. note the temperatures — 17, 18, maybe 19 in hull. that pressure remains confined t

pianist who lost her brother to police brutality into 1012 in any delhi research fellow at the university of edinburgh center for african studies back in and there to nigeria researcher for human rights watch war welcome to all of you. or be as you do you trust the government what it says that it is going to or that it has indeed scrapped sauce no i don't this is the flights or the feet time that the government is crap incest i said earlier this year last year not disappear the vice president himself man says and yes it is do or i do not trust the government to see their scripts that's only trust them when the source of the shelves or now the rooms on our streets leave the streets and a community to use them for now on is just talks and no actions i do not need to go the night so much in this time is different in the sense that the momentum is building up against police brutality do you think that this is something that could be conducive to a dramatic change in nigeria yes do you think so i think come. seem different this time around because they are different too once we see the youth of russia to d

with me is professor debby bogaert — an expert in infectious diseases at the university of edinburgh s smith, a virologist at the university of cambridge. welcome to you both. i suppose we can welcome to you both. i suppose we ca n start welcome to you both. i suppose we can start generally, why do you both think we are seeing these spikes regionally? debbie, perhapsi think we are seeing these spikes regionally? debbie, perhaps i can start with you. i think in scotland we have seen the from several weeks ago when the universities were opening up and a lot of students coming to our university towns that that was sort of, exaggerating the increase throughout the country. i think that has been the initial spike that we saw. meanwhile we see a general trickling through of cases towards the more older age groups. that's something to worry about as well is the number of cases throughout the country are starting to rise. that's exactly why there is currently being evaluating more it measures are needed. just on a wider context, and birmingham have said that the national lockdown was lifted t

i'm alsojoined by linda bauld, who is professor of public health at the university of edinburgh.r being here to answer these questions. sian, thank you both for being here to answerthese questions. sian, peter e—mailed to say what is the reasoning behind now allowing tier two areas to mix in private gardens, which was not allowed before, yet to ban household mixing in restaurants? peter says there is far less policing and private gardens and banning people mixing in restaurants has a much higher economic impact. yes, mixing in restaurants has a higher economic impact that mixing in gardens, the risk is not as great as mixing inside. i think with this tiered structure, this is a framework within which local government will be working and we may see moderation and some change but the general guidance is it is quite safe in tier two level is based on levels of infection in the community and population to be in the gardens. i think probably we all recognise as winter comes, we are less likely to be outside. but it may also apply to exercise as well. it's a good idea to be out and exe

i'm joined now by devi sridhar, who's chair of global public health at the university of edinburgh. have to prepare ourselves for a lockdown of around a month. do you think this is the right way forward ? you think this is the right way forward? unfortunately, there is no choice at this point, giving the horizon —— given the rising hospitalisations and that is what we see with this virus, we continually underestimate this and are caught in a reactive position when we let it spread or we let case numbers rise and think that is harmless. so, u nfortu nately, and think that is harmless. so, unfortunately, in the position england is in, it seems inevitable they have to slow it down. nobody wa nts a they have to slow it down. nobody wants a lockdown but it seems like there is no other choice right now because uncontrolled spread would be even worse. is this action that you think the government should have taken earlier? i actually go back to the summer and say we had a lockdown and we had some kind of restrictions, but we got a number is pretty low in june, restrictions, but we got a num

they show that the university of edinburgh, subsequently, in the may of this year the cdc published theire on nonpharmacological measures for influenza-like measures. they quoted 14 randomized, controlled studies, all of which show that masks do nothing to limit that transition. they sound like they know the literature as well as you and i do, and they are rather snarky about it, unfortunately. >> laura: of course, joe biden threw that out there come a thing because a 100,000 lives of everyone just masked up and socially distanced between now and forever. but last night, biden also blamed trump for all of the country's covid deaths. >> the 20 -- the 200,000 people that have died on his watch. 200,000 dead. over 7 million infected in the united states. he waited and waited and waited. he still doesn't have a plan. i laid out back in march exactly what we should be doing and i laid out again in july what we should be doing. >> laura: he laid it all out and what's the difference between 200,020,000? after all. >> the experts told us in march and april that we would have 2 million deaths. cov

the joint director of the centre for global health at the university of edinburgh. w the peak seen at the end ofjune. those are tests that drive through our walk—in centres or by mobile units. last week, the figure reached its lowest point since the programme started, with just 1a% receiving results within a day. a look at our latest headlines on bbc news. the labour party has suspended jeremy corbyn, after a long awaited report on anti—semitism said the party committed unlawful acts of harassment and discrimination. three people have been killed in the french city of nice after a nice attack —— knife attack near a church. the mayor has called it an act of terrorism. nearly 100,000 people are catching coronavirus in england every day, according to a new report. more now on those horrific events in nice after three people died after a knife attack. the mayor has said that everything suggests it was a terrorist attack. one suspect was shot by police and is now being treated in hospital. chaos and terror in the heart of another french city. streets closed, swarming with

let me ask you about a university of edinburgh piece of research which reassessed an earlier study bydon suggesting that in a worst—case scenario, there could be hundreds of thousands of deaths from coronavirus if no action was taken. but the latest reassessment of that study suggests that if schools hadn't been closed and if some kind of immunity had built up among younger sections of the population, it would have been beneficial overall. what are your thoughts on that? research is going on all the time and we are learning all the time. scientists are learning as we go with this virus. so pieces of work like that are important, but we can't change the past. we are where we are and we can only influence the future. i want our schools and universities to be open. i want young people to be interacting and learning. but the consequence of thatis learning. but the consequence of that is that the virus will spread more, so everyone else has to be extra vigilant. young people are very safe with this virus. very few of them get serious consequences. some will get long covid, which is miserab

ok let's bring in in a deli and that is a he's a research fellow at the university of edinburgh center for african studies good to have you with us 1st of all just give me your reaction to the result of the condé being put into office for a 3rd. but. i think the reaction of the opposition protesters is quite understandable. especially because of the. vagueness around around around the not just the results of the election but also condi go in but can his garden produce promises that he's made in the past and seeking to know install and solve tarion fashion essentially i think the reactions to be to be expected in a manner speaking i think. the silence of the african union echo us as well. is quite large because it sort of follows the. initial statement will be made at the end of the completion of the election of the of the of voting where they said that the election seemed. devoid of any solution irregularities likely. to lead to a plea to rule in the way things are the moment stay with us because i want to talk about what the global reaction has been to the events in both kenny and nig

this, i'm joined now by dr christine tait—burkard, expert in infection and immunity at the university of edinburght this announcement was being made. it was actually, unexpectedly less severe than expected. lots of talk was happening around a so—called circuit breaker that would mimic much closer to a locked and that we had in march. now we see the biggest impact, very localised, or relatively localised on the central belt. primarily focusing on the hospitality sector. is that the right focus, the hospitality sector? is that the main cause on the rise infection? it comes off the back of the announcement of the government ten days ago which was restricting people meeting inside each other‘s houses. no two households are allowed to meet any more and doors for ten days already all over scotland. that is something that is going to stay in place for the next two weeks. this is taking it one step further to what the government believes are the major sites of infection. there is some evidence that restaurants may serve as a mixing pool. the first minister was talking about 20%, or one in five people who

from the bbc health editor, hugh pym and linda bauld, professor of public health from the university of edinburgh is about what is the evidence enclosing gins? that is really tough, because we want people to be physically active. -- enclosing linda bauld. we emit small droplets, we would emit smoke to exertion any gym, secondly by touching things, somebody might have passed the virus onto a surface, also look at the airborne, so enclose places with poor ventilation. that is not unique to gyms but it makes them slightly more dangerous. we have not seen any cases linked directly to gyms interest and trace in the uk, but that has been the case in other countries. they are only closed at the moment in liverpool, in northern ireland and scotland we can go to gym but not classes there. graham hopkins asks, "should a person living and working in london be able to come home to a tier one area without isolating? that brings it quite a few issues, hugh pym? there will be lots of people commuting into the cities which are in tier two, high alert, and going back in the evening. nothing in the guidelines in e

let's speak now to linda bauld, professor of public health at the university of edinburgh. t will have? it's a very complex set of new rules that i think people will struggle to understand. willie and paul have made some excellent points about the impact on their sector. from a public health perspective cases arising around 7% a day in scotland. the chief medical officer up here has estimated that by the end of 0ctober has estimated that by the end of october we could be back in the same position we were in in march. given that we are not allowed to meeting each other‘s roses, —— houses... the government is looking at other environments indoors where people are mixing that we could take action and fora are mixing that we could take action and for a short period. they have chosen hospitality. we are not alone in this. belgium is doing the same thing. all the pubs have been shut in brussels, the same in dublin. it is so hard across europe. but governments are taking similar action. we know it is 16 days and thatis action. we know it is 16 days and that is targeted over half te

we'rejoined now by linda bauld, professor of public health at the university of edinburgh.the longer restrictions go on, generally the more fed up people get. it was useful yesterday, we heard the first minister rule out what is not on the table and that included no strict lockdown. schools will remain open, no national travel ban. we wait to hear what the new restrictions are today. there has been discussion about the circuit breaker idea. about potentially around to break in the school term using it to have stricter restrictions for a short period. that's right, i think the new measures that will be introduced will be temporary. a challenge around the school holidays as in england and wales, not all schools break up at the same time so you look at when exactly you would do it, but what is likely is we will be looking at areas where households mix. we already cannot meet to each other‘s homes. you have to think where else is poorly ventilated and difficult to distance. so that might be hospitality, especially in the central belt. what is your assessment behind the reasons

also seems to be having a problem with the thousands of students having to be locked down in new universities in manchester edinburgh and glasgow amongst others not to be wise after the event but it does seem predictable that you take tens of thousands of 18 year olds living away from home for the 1st time they're going to have little time for social distancing this could have been avoided couldn't it. well certainly i think it's predictable whether it's avoidable or not is that it is a different issue and i think. the issue is whether or not you will you can balance the loss of education that would come with closing our universities at this stage with the. the harm that would be done to the students from both from the virus and from not attending education so certainly it was predictable and i think many people were expecting that to be a fairly substantial number of cases amongst universities we've seen that already both in america and elsewhere where in countries where universities went back for the u.k. . what is the alternative the alternative closed not open the universities against again this. damaging many.

you can also seem to be having a problem with the thousands of students having to be locked down in new universities in manchester edinburgh and glasgow amongst others and not to be wise after the event but it does seem predictable that you take tens of thousands of 18 year olds living away from home for the 1st time they're going to have little time for social distancing this could have been avoided couldn't it well certainly i think it's predictable whether it's avoidable or not is that it is a different issue and i think that the issue is whether or not you will you can balance the loss that they get cation that would come with closing our universities at this stage with the. the harm would be done to students from both from the virus and from not attending education so certainly it was predictable and i think many people were expecting there to be a fairly substantial number of cases amongst universities we've seen that already both in america and elsewhere where in countries where universities went back for the u.k. . what is the alternative the alternative closed not open the universities against the game this. damag

also seems to be having a problem with the thousands of students having to be locked down in new universities in manchester edinburgh and glasgow amongst others and not to be wise after the event but it does seem predictable but you take tens of thousands of 18 year olds living away from home for the 1st time they're going to have little time for social distancing this could have been avoided couldn't it well certainly i think it's predictable whether it's avoidable or not is that it is a different issue and i think that the issue is whether or not you will you can balance the loss that they get cation that would come with closing our universities at this stage with the. the harm would be done to students from both from the virus and from not attending education so certainly it was predictable and i think many people were expecting there to be a fairly substantial number of cases the most universities we've seen that already both in america and elsewhere where in countries where universities went back for the u.k. . what is the alternative the alternative closed not open the universities against again this. damaging

let's speak to christine tait—burkard, professor of infection and immunity at edinburgh university. e in scotland for quite some time. we have seen most of the central belt in what is effectively level three, in the new system, of four effective levels, five total levels, and we see that numbers are slowly starting to level out in terms of cases but they still don't start to show going down and that is just what we've seenin down and that is just what we've seen in the first wave of coronavirus, actually. so do you have much hope they will work? they will work, it's just a very fast rolling train and it takes quite a long time to stop it because some social contacts will just long time to stop it because some social contacts willjust continue to go on because even in level four, what is effectively a lockdown type restriction, we see essential work are still going to work, we see manufacturing still continuing stop those are areas with high people density. at the same time, i'm not worried about those effects because we need to live with some of the virus and the way we impact and we

of england, as infections continue to climb there. the daily mail says a major new study by edinburgh university suggests that strict lockdowns are unlikelye long run and may even increase them. the paper says scientists concluded that coronavirus required a different strategy from a flu epidemic, and the focus should be on shielding the elderly and vulnerable. and the mirror asks simply, why aren't local lockdown working? the paper says covid—i9 cases continue to soar in hotspots. in germany, frankfurter allgemeine says berlin and paris are demanding eu sanctions against moscow following the poisoning of kremlin critic alexei navalny. in france, le figaro takes a look at the two women who have been awarded the 2020 nobel prize in chemistry for developing the tools to edit dna. and the times says climate scientists have revealed that the last month was the hottest september on record across the globe. surface air temperatures were 0.05c warmer than the year before, experts from the europe union union's copernicus climate change service said. so, let's start with our guests. lovely as always to see you both. let's start off with the metro,

also seems to be having a problem with the thousands of students having to be locked down in new universities in manchester edinburgh and glasgow amongst others and not to be wise after the event but it does seem predictable that you take tens of thousands of 18 year olds living away from home for the 1st time they're going to have little time for social distancing this could have been avoided couldn't it well certainly i think it's predictable whether it's avoidable or not is that it is a different issue and i think that the issue is whether or not you will you can balance the loss that they get cation that would come with closing our universities at this stage with the. the harm would be done to students from both from the virus and from not attending education so certainly it was predictable and i think many people were expecting there to be a fairly substantial number of cases amongst universities we've seen that already both in america and elsewhere where in countries where universities went back for the u.k. . what is the alternative the alternative closed not open the universities against the game list. damag

of tougher restrictions in scotland to suppress the virus. the daily mail says a major new study by edinburgh university suggests that strict lockdowns are unlikelyaths in the long run and may even increase them. the paper says scientists concluded that the focus should be on shielding the elderly and vulnerable. the mirror asks simply, "why aren't local lockdowns working?" and the express carries a message from the health secretary, matt hancock, who is urging us all to "stick with it" to curb the second wave of coronavirus. so, let's begin. as always, i thank you so much for sharing your wednesday evening with us. we are going to start with the scottish daily mail following nicholas sturgeon‘s, what the daily mail is describing as last orders. and these are pretty strict orders that in theory are going to last for i6 that in theory are going to last for 16 days. across that central bell of scotland. indeed, yes. nicholas sturgeon has announced these new strict measures today which will lead to pods closing in the central bell of scotland which as you said covers about 3.5 million people. this is due to the fact that coronavirus does and to be s