the university of washington model that the white house is citing today is done by the institute for health metrics and evaluation at the university of washington. it's a big operation there, hundreds of epidemiologists and computer scientists and statisticians cranking out data and posting it online in a very digestible, user-friendly format that's easy to understand. the white house is now using their models and their data to try to make the president understand, by all accounts, that this isn't the flu, and it's not going to zero cases, and it's not going to evaporate like a miracle and all the other made-up nonsense he has been happy talking about it for weeks. they're also now using this data to not just brief the president but to brief the country on why this is going to go on for a while longer and for how bad the u.s. trajectory is within this global pandemic because the u.s. trajectory is terrible. and the white house aim right now, the white house goal is to keep it between 100,000 and 240,000 americans dead. and in florida yesterday, this modeling led to something that prob

host: the chief strategy officer at the university of washington population health initiative, also a professor of global pandemic the un covering sincee began. joining us from san francisco is the chancellor of the university of california, dr. sam. he is formally the dean at the school of medicine. thank you for being with us.

the data modeling group at the university of washington that's been so influential with our government and in our country, they've been doing these models of when individual u.s. states are going to hit the peak of their outbreak, how many deaths that's going to mean, how many beds each state is going to need, by what date, that same modeling group at the university of washington has just started doing the same kind of modeling estimates for european countries as well. and there is, in those models and in those projections, some good news for some of the hardest hit european countries. for italy, which was hit so, so badly, and is still struggling in some ways, the modelers at university of washington say that the first wave of the pandemic has peaked in italy at the national level. the peak is behind them. for spain as well, quote, almost all regions of spain are at or past the peak. for france, quote, the model shows that france is just passing its peak. now, french health officials said this week that they believe they haven't peaked yet. but the numbers in france do show their curv

and the university of washington. i have a connection. would like to see us find a way to help people learn to support and help each other and adjust to the limitations we have on our lives. maybe through television ads or something so that we can help people understand that they can adjust to this. thank you. dr. mokdad: thank you. this is a good point. i have been talking about this. some are suffering more than others. i am one of those who have a job and i think all of us who have jobs have a bigger responsibility to help others who do not have food or cannot get out to get food. that is why i keep saying it is time to be compassionate. we can come out stronger from this, i have no doubt in my mind. it is time for all of us to take care of our own community. help those who need right now. thank you for reminding us that it is time to be compassionate and love one another. host: leslie, you are next up from lady lake, florida. good evening. caller: hi, it is a pleasure to listen to someone who has good advice as opposed to listening to

. >> bill: we'll keep an eye on that, i will speak on a modeling expert from the university of washingtonhow good are the models when you consider the virus is adapting and moving and changing? how much stock do we put in those? >> the models of the best we got to go with, obviously they are a little bit more malleable than we would wish because you can rapidly change by an order of magnitude what our expectations are. i'm pretty confident we would've had a much worse outcome if we hand shut the country down. the variables coming into play are whether we can actually test and assess how widely spread the virus is. in new york we missed the boat, but california as you pointed out got there a little bit of head of time but just because the nature of california it wasn't as easy for it to spread. the subways aren't there, the elevators, the places that cause problems in new york. the models addict what's going to happen in 24 days and that's how long it took us to get ahead of this. modeling is vital otherwise you are completely without guidance. >> bill: with regard to new york, we lost a s

>> when you looked at the original models, john, what the university of washington was sort of basing that on was primarily, you know, the evolution in china, in wuhan specifically. and sort of saying, look, if we do those same sorts of stay-at-home orders, what is that going to look like here in the united states? but also, taking into account that it probably would be difficult to do those same sort of stay-at-home orders. and that, as a result, pushed the numbers higher. i think as they have started to look at other countries, primarily countries in europe, which were behind china, maybe a little bit more lax with regard to their stay-at-home orders, they did still see significant benefit there and they started to add those data points and those modeling numbers into this model here in the united states. and that seemed to improve things. john, it is still a model. there are many models out there. a lot of people are focused on this one out of the university of washington. we have been looking at several different models, and you know, when you start to put those all together, you

fear of vos is a professor of global health metrics and evaluation at the university of washington's department of global health he's one of the researchers behind those stats welcome to d w professor the comparison between the united states and great britain that seems well good at fighting but why are you predicting the so many more deaths in the smaller country. ellen we start with explaining what we do is so we look at the daily counsel of that that are being reported as to fit and we look at the pattern of those deaths they increase when did they start and then with the information that we have from epidemics that have gone further ahead and some of them have to start it to peak of course 1st in china that's in parts of italy and spain as well as some of the states in the u.s. we're seeing already a decline off deaths due to cold fit to make use of that information to them predict what's the we think the most likely scenario is that will play out in other countries ok so as far as you can tell from the figures that you compile the way that the a pandemic has gone in britain is mu

fear of asa's a professor of global health metrics and evaluation at the university of washington's department of global health he's one of the researchers behind those stats welcome to d w professor the comparison between the united states and great britain that seems will get frightening why are you predicting the so many more deaths in the smaller country. ellen we start with explaining what we do is so we look at the daily counts of that that are being reported as too cold fit and we look at the pattern of those deaths they increase when did they start and then with the information that we have from epidemics that have gone further ahead and some of them have started to peak of course 1st in china that's in parts of italy and spain as well as some of the states in the u.s. we're seeing already a decline off deaths due to cold fit so make use of that information to them predict what's the think the most likely scenario is that will play out in other countries ok so as far as you can tell from the figures that you compile the way that the a pandemic has gone in britain is much higher than it

yet, at the same time, we have revised projections, models coming out of the university of washingtonoing a lot of the modelling on the future of the coronavirus, and what happens next. and they are revising down their total mortality rates quite significantly for the us, just last week, the university of washington was projecting that 93,000 americans would die. this week, they are saying it's only going to be 81,000. that's a drop of 12,000 in the space of just that's a drop of 12,000 in the space ofjust one week of modelling. and what they are saying is they are getting much more information from around the world, from america, but also from other countries, from italy and even from china. and they are factoring in that when more and more americans start social distancing because now we are all on lock down, it brings the mortality rate down. so you've got kind of a lots of mixed news around the world today. boris johnson lots of mixed news around the world today. borisjohnson the second night and today. borisjohnson the second nightandi today. borisjohnson the second night and i s

these graphs come from the university of washington. what you're looking at here, it looks at the projected deaths for all 50 states. for example, here's new york. you're going to start with a solid line. here's what's already happened in term of overall death. the dotted line is projected of what's to come ahead. the prediction here is that new york's death rate will peak on april 9th which is this thursday, with 878 deaths that single day. after that, they should start dropping. let's look at california now. our projected peak is in ten days with 70 total deaths. here's us and the projected peak in ten days at 70 total deaths on that day alone, on april 17th. then we should start dropping. florida issued a shelter-at-home order. this is just one projection out of the university of washington. >> we are flattening the curve but it's also stretching, just one thing that makes projections so dicey. in a news conference, governor newsom says we are slowing the spread which means our peak is yet to come. >> that's why i just want to impres

philadelphia and the baltimore-washington corridor that we continue asking all of our residents to stay home. >>when not engaged in essential activities nationwide the university of washington model forecasts a peep demand for resources like hospital beds and ventilators on or around saturday. and it peaked daily death toll on or around sunday in washington, i'm karin defect. time now to get a check of our forecast as we take a live look outside here in san francisco along a very quiet embarcadero working from home for us tonight. >>is our chief meteorologist lawrence karnow some like clouds out there today are the temperatures going to. warm up or cool down. >>well you know it will be interesting i think in the long range we're going to see a nice warm-up in fact for the holiday weekend should be a very nice weekend indy but we've still got the storm to deal with has not done with us just yet even though it seemed to move on to southern california to dc right now on the very latest latest satellite and radar image all the rain moving in the sun. we down to san diego, the bay area still seeing some of these wraparound clouds roll across our skies but staying d

one of my closest friends who did a phd with me at the university of washington, it was brilliant got a message saying that they, i don't out them, had shared a known pieces of russian disinformation on tumblr through the agency. this is a person that studies the stuffy nose it really, really well. if they can be fooled by it, if i can be full but, then we can all be full by. so we have to read the whole article and we have to think very jim very carefully before we share we share. what we are seeing right now isn't the proliferation of cheap fakes during the 20 election it's not things that make trump look like he same thing is not coming. there's more chapter on this forcing his regular people sharing videos that are edited on iphones videos of joe biden looks like a racist because it's likely edited. videos of nancy pelosi looking like she's drunk. looking at what high school students looking like seven have that didn't happen. in the one of jimmy costa that was sped up to make him look like he was abusing the white house intern. but then got us press credentials revoked and subseq

from the university of washington. well, there is a brand new projection tonight. and we're going to have that breaking news for you right after this break. >>> breaking news thaifrs telli that i was telling you about a bit earlier. from the university of washington. the model used by the white house, which forecast the fallout from the coronavirus pandemic. they have some new forecast information for us tonight. so let's get right to that. it's dr. chris murray. he is the director of the university's institute for health, metrics, and evaluation. thank you so much. the current coronavirus deaths in the united states, 56,000 today. states starting to lift their stay-at-home orders. as a result, i think that's part of it. you've adjusted your model. what's your forecast? >> our forecast, now, is for 74,000 deaths, as our best estimate. the range is pretty wide because there's a lot of unknown factors there. but our best estimate is going up. and we see these protracted, long peaks in some states. we're also seeing signs

and we should note the university of washington model still predicts that april 16th will be the apex for covid-19 deaths in the united states in april 15th will be the peak day for use of hospital beds. bottom line, we are getting there. >> sean: some good news them about every life that is lost is tragic. every infection is to be taken seriously. these are huge developments, huge trends in the right direction. the fact should give every american hope especially as we continue to move ahead on potentially life-saving treatments. now look at this and the exclusive letter obtained by dr. oz, he will join us in a second, highly respected los angeles-based rheumatologist who he trusts when you see his credentials, unbelievable. sent a letter to the fda explaining "hydroxychloroquine is a very safe drug. has been given to tens of millions of individuals in the world since its approval in 1955, that is 65 years ago. has not been associated with any deaths in the recommended dose of 42 years of practice, no patient of mine that took over the largest lupus practice in the country has ever be

host: the chief strategy officer at the university of washington population health initiative, also a professor of global pandemic the un covering sincee began. joining us from san francisco is the chancellor of the university of california, dr. sam. he is formally the dean at the school of medicine. thank you for being with us. we wanted to talk to you for a number of reasons. first and foremost, san francisco seemed to get an early jump on this virus. and that has resulted in fewer deaths and fewer illnesses. what the lessons from your school and from your city? >> i think you put your finger on it right there. they declared a state of emergency in early february before their being one case in san francisco. they moved to shelter in place on march 16. we had a few confirmed cases, but no deaths. it did not occur in san francisco until eight days later. of fact that the citizens san francisco are cooperative with those public health orders, and for me, the lesson has been the importance of the academic health system in the public health ecosystem of san francisco. host: as you look a

of testing and robust contact tracing when we get the number down low enough >> erin, washington state is looking at antibody testing. what about other states >> reporter: that's right, jose. the universitywashington is expected to begin its antibody testing early next week joining testing efforts in colorado, california, and florida. really seeing it's critical to understand the spread of this disease. jose >> erin mclaughlin in los angeles, thank you >>> the economic ripple effects of coronavirus have been hitting millions of americans. now struggling to simply put food on the family table. morgan chesky tonight with the challenges of feeding america. >> reporter: tonight in the growing fate facing millions of americans. lines stretching from coast to coast from families trying to find their next meal >> thank you have a good day. >> reporter: in fort worth texas, elizabeth lewis hernandez went through this line for the first time the fresh food a blessing for her family after being laid off as a waitress. if you didn't have a place like this, what would you do >> i don't know. i've never been in a type of this situation like this i've always been able to support myself, support my fam

it's on a key scientific modelling from the university of washington.el used by the white house which forecasts the fallout from the coronavirus pandemic. they have some new forecast information for us tonight. so let's get right to that for its dr. chris murray is the director of the university's institute for help metrics and evaluation. doctor, thank you so much. i appreciate it. the current number of coronavirus deaths in the u.s. topped 56,000 today. states are starting to lift their stay-at-home orders. as a result, i think, that's part of it. you've adjusted your model. what's your forecast? >> our forecast now is for 74,000 deaths. that's our best estimate. the range is pretty wide because there's a lot of unknown factors there, but our best estimate is going up, and we see these protracted, long peaks in some states. we're also seeing signs of a mobility data that people are getting more active, and that's also feeding into our assessment. >> yeah, the -- it was for -- i think it was 60,000, right? that was a low. and now it's up to 74,000. jus

from the university of washington, thank you. >> at the 500,000 test capacity which we have just acquired is equal to the total amount of testing which has been completed by four of the top five states in america combined. >> bill: that's larry hogan, maryland's governor with us last friday. announcing today the state had half a million test kits from south korea. we will get an update on nsa body testing, antibody testing could be key to when things reopen. also, nations around the world and now targeting china over beijing's role on the pandemic, how can the globe take on this economic power house to the troon of trillions of dollars. how the last cruise ship still at sea is finally pulling into port. how long its passengers spent on board and on the water. we need each other more than ever. we may be apart, but we're not alone. use aarp community connections to find or create a mutual aid group near you. stay connected and help those in need. there will be parades and sporting events and concerts. to help our communities when they come back together, go to 2020census.gov and respond to

crawley great lives lecture series hosted by the university of mary washington. >>> now to introduce tonight's speaker, nah thalia holt. having stud did at hum boat state university and received a phd from university of southern california and further study at tulane university, ms. halt has conducted research at the jelt propulsion archives, the cal tech library and schlessinger library on the history of women in america at harvard. in addition, she's been a fellow at the raven institute at massachusetts general hospital, m.i.t. and harvard university. her first book was "cured, the people who defeated hiv." she's written for publications including "the new york times," los angeles times, the atlantic, slate, popular science an "time" magazine. in 2016, she published the work that's the basis of her talk tonight titled "the rise of the rocket girls, the women who propelled us from missiles to the moon to mars." that work was a best seller and was widely praised by critics including one who described it as immersive, evocative and superbly readable, holt's poignant narrative should be

." >> o'brien: at the university of washington i met virologist alex greninger, who'd been trying to ust that. >> you got to have the supply of testing, absolutely do. we need to bable to detect where the virus is and then try and snuff it out, i mean, right? prevent its transmission, that's the name of the game in the coming months. >> o'brien: but hean into a bureaucratic brick wall: the food and drug administration had instituted emergency procedures to make sure any new tests were accurate. >> you can make your own tests, but you have to send it to the fda and get it reviewed and then authorized. and i'll admit, i'm in my first couple of years here in this particular job, i had not beenth rough this process before. >> o'brien: e fda application was 28 pages long, and required ulhim to run tests that wotake at least two weeks. and that wasn't all. >> one of the thin is they needed a document fedex-ed across the country before they could look at the docunt. >> o'brien: you couldn't electronically transmit it? >> i could electronically transmit it, but they couldn't look at it until

i hme out of the university of washington has repeatedly overstated it. that might be tied to the fact that we learned just today in multiple reports that covid-19 arrived on our shores much sooner than we thought. in fact, new research says possibly in new york by mid-february. i've heard reports of sooner than that, in the winter. we have a mobile robust immunity than we think it thanks to chinese lies and duplicity, whih continues. i don't know where we are in the curve. hopefully herd immunity might be closer than we think. i want to be optimistic, but we have to keep taking the measure to be prudent to flatten the curve, no doubt about that. >> harris: i started with you for that optimism. he said a couple things, i want to ask and follow-up with dr. saphier about. that's the models and what they are looking at. our behavior has been a game changer. whether they were right, they were overblown, whatever the situation was, we have the ability to control a little bit of our destiny, dr. saphier. >> dr. saphier: harris, let me tell you, first of all i l

the ihme model, which comes from the university of washington, and it's a model that is funded in partis widely used and quoted by the white house. these proofing picture is the number of expected deaths from the virus has been dropping steadily. as you can see when you take a look at the difference. here's dr. fauci on this today, watch. >> when you get new data, the data always trumps the model, so you have to take your data and then refashion the model. and that's what's happened. we've gone from 100,000 to 200,000, down to about 60. that's the good news. what we need to do is make sure we don't let up on those medications. the physical separation programs. because if we do, that can just bounce back again. >> martha: professor of health metric sciences at the institute for health metrics and evaluation, that the institute that is behind this projection model. doctor, thank you very much for being with us tonight. you know, i think a lot of us have become very used to following these numbers as they come out over the course of the days and you know, why do you think it is that the m

vin gupta is a pulmonologist from the university of washington. he joins me via skype. dr. good to talk to you again. let's talk a little bit about some of these measures at your hospital and whether or not they're potentially saving lives as we just saw there in that report. should other hospitals look into adopting them as well. are you setting up best practices to share with other area hospitals? >> i work for one of the area hospitals in seattle. i can certainly say my leadership at the hospitals across seattle are doing the exact same thing they're doing at northwest hospital just north of downtown. it's incredible to see what my colleagues have done at that specific satellite site because they saw some of the greatest concentration of critically ill covid positive patients. what they've done is not only a paradigm for what i've seen emulated across the city but also across the country. there's been a lot of sharing of best practices to your point, ayman. zoom calls with our colleagues in new york city, informal sharing of best practices. it's been as critical care pro

mark mcclellan and joining us is vin gupta from the university of washington, and as folks know, as we'reng a lot of different technologies, we have some issues back and forth, but let's get right to it. mr. mcclellan, i want to start with you. you and mr. gottlieb have put out this plan. let me ask about the plan this way. if the president said to you, i want to open on may 1st, what is everything that would have to happen in the next three weeks for us to reopen america in some form on may 1st? >> chuck, it's about making sure that when we reopen, we don't go back to the beginning. we should be moving into the next phase of managing this pandemic and to do that, several things need to be in place. number one, we need to make sure we have adequate hospital and health care capacity to deal with any complications from an increase in cases if that happens again. number two, we need to make sure, as you said, we've got testing capacity out locally so that we can take more of an offensive approach to this pandemic. not just waiting for a large number of cases to emerge. but finding and preven

that's when the university of washington institute for health metrics. we know that's going to occur. that's been corroborated by other evidence out of harvard. so, we have great intel. there's great evidence. there's great modeling, so we should be prepared for it to the extent we can. unfortunately we're playing catch up. so, why are we doing off ramps on ppe? it doesn't make any sense. we should be encouraging a national lockdown, saving ppe, not looking for ways in which maybe people are going to feel like they need to get their own surgical masks. the reckoning is going to come in a few weeks for all forecasting models we have out there. >> doctor, thank you for bravely continuing in the dark. doctor, shannon, sam, provided everybody can still hear me, thank you all for starting us off on thursday night. >>> coming up we have some of the best minds on both health care and the economy. first up the person joe biden told us he would choose to lead his coronavirus task force if he were president. and later, they're the business of -- they are the busine

there's university of washington model, different characteristics, some positive, some negative. that model shows that we will have enough supplies and beds to deal with the surge. we don't know exactly when the surge will come. we don't know exactly the timetable. much is going to depend upon the mitigation efforts and the stay-at-home orders and how people react to those as the governor was saying. we are depending upon everyone in pennsylvania to stay home to prevent the spread of this deadly virus. >> governor, from the pittsburgh business times, are there any plans to extend the waiver deadline for businesses to apply to be considered an essential business? >> no. the waiver deadline is 5:00 this evening. let me add to the point. i think there's two questions on modeling secretary answered absolutely right. there's one answer to the models. it doesn't matter which model you use, doesn't matter how sophisticated the algorithms. it depends on what we do. if we stay home and practice social distancing. if we nip this in the bud, the models will slow we will not exceed the capac

institute for health metrics and evaluation is well-regarded research center run from the university of washington. has produced predictions for the course of this epidemic here in the united states as well as other countries. their model has done perhaps any other piece of academic research to shape our response to the coronavirus crisis. so accurate has that model been? here are some numbers. initially, they predicted that on april 4th, the state of new york would require 65,000 hospital beds to handle infected patients. the low-end estimate was nearly 48,000 beds and they had fewer than 16,000 hospitalizations fell below the model's projections as well, over the weekend they updated its model, across the countries and yet they are still significantly overstated. for example, today which is april 7th, they predict that new york will need 25,000 hospital beds. as of this morning, it was just under 17,500. the new model also predicted that as of today, almost 6,600 people would be in intensive care and actual numbers just under 4600. in florida, it predicted 4,000 people would be hospitalized. the

>> yeah, the peak deaths, according to the university of washington's institute. you look at this on your tv screen. the prediction, the number of covid deaths in california will peak at 1,483 on may 18th, and then they are predicting a sooner death peak with about 400 fewer people dying. this is just a prediction. reporting the number of cases could be grossly under reported. the real number could be thousands higher. in the study a huge number of people who have not been tested have been unknowingly infecting others. but those skeptical of the study says they are relying on data they believe is incomplete and faulty. >>> and then lawmakers will launch spending overnight. here's a look if last week. >> in the last 48 hours we have secured in the state of california upwards of 200 million masks. >> every since some have wondered how newsom secured the deal and the chinese deal he made with it. >> new for you this morning, a southern california company received fda approval to decontaminated millions of n95 face masks every day. they have 6,000 machines in use aroun

tonight the new model of the others in washington predicting peaks for each of the 50 states, words is yours fall? one of the universitydoctors joins the medical panel to break it down next. >> shannon: key members of shannon: p members of the coronavirus task force, doctor anthony fauci raising eyebrows by suggesting a big part of american culture may need to disappear forever. >> i don't think we should ever shake hands ever again. not only would it be good to prevent coronavirus but it would decrease the incidents of influenza dramatically in this country. >> for peace corps medical director doctor steve weinberg and from the university of washington virology lab, great to have you with us tonight. before we figure out our new greeting in the us and will handshake separate comeback i want to talk about the fact that at the university of washington you are putting out a lot of data some of it about testing you are seeing but also key predictions for all the different states. crunching the data and putting it together knowing the world is watching as you change, the model seems to be improving in the right direction.

and the university of washington studied hundreds of households and found each household has an average of 15 outside connections. well that means without any social distancing, the single case of the virus within one household could potentially spread to 75% of families in the community. and the death toll is now 821 with 63 new deaths reported. and meanwhile here in the bay area there are more than 5,700 confirmed cases of the coronavirus. 171 people have died. alameda county is reporting 13 new deaths and a total of 964 cases. san francisco now has more than a thousand cases. and they are nearing 1,800. >>> well marin county fire crews are taking extra steps to clean the emergency vehicles. they developed an intense process for disinfecting ambulances after every patient is taken to the hospital. a contractor wearing the hazmat suit will clean out the inside of the ambulance and then the worker will disinfect it. and there are now three near marin hospital. and to clean that vehicle that could have transported the covid-19 patient. the car had been submerged in the canal for at least

wondered, has the admiral talked to eric lander at the brote institute or jay schender at the university of washingtonfield at the rutgers labs. these people are on the cutting edge of technology for genomics. they see how to scale up tests to do millions a day with the sequencing equipment they already have. i just think that the people who are denying this possibility are not talking to the people who know something about what is possible. >> let's talk about the cost of testing every american, the st. louis federal reserve president, jim bollard says the u.s. is losing $25 billion a day because of the various lockdowns. he also supports universal testing. can the u.s. afford to do universal testing or can it not afford to fought do it? >> yeah. if we were testing everybody every 14 days at $10 a test that would come in under $100 billion a year. and i think that would be a good investment for us to make to just give everyone confidence that we are on top of this pandemic. we can stay on top of it. there is a plan that will work. it will not require a return to lockdown and it will prepare us for th

sanjay, a key coronavirus model often touted by the white house, the one from the university of washington, says many states will need to wait longer to reopen. the model predicts that june 19 is going to be the date that it's safe for georgia to reopen. the governor is of course allowing some businesses to reopen there in 48 hours, long before june. what do you make of this situation? >> i think the governor is falling into a trap here, jake. i don't think he's recognized that these measures that have gone in place, these social distancing, physical distancing measures have had an impact. he's thinking, you know, things look okay here. first of all, they don't look okay. the data is pretty clear on this and the numbers don't lie. i think it was very interesting to hear how ambassador birx sort of phrased it yesterday, she basically said, hey, look, we put out guidelines, we made it as easy to use as possible, there's still outbreaks happening, the numbers are going in the wrong direction. so i don't know how you could possibly do this. but maybe they'll get creative, is essentially how sh

one of my closest friends would get a phd with me at university of washington who is brilliant got a message saying that they come i don't want to out them, had shared a known piece of russian disinformation on tumblr from the internet research agency. and this is a person that studies the stucco that knows it really, really well. if they can be fooled by it, if i can be full by, and we all can be fooled by it. we have to read the whole article and think very carefully before we share what we share. what we're seeing right now is in the proliferation of cheap fakes during -- deep fakes during the 2020s election. it's not like sophisticated video. digital check on this and it's a potent weapon and we'll start to see more of this. what we're seeing is regular people sharing videos that are edited on imovie, it is a joe biden that look like he's a racist because they are selected. and also the video of the cnn report that was fed it to make look like he was abusing a white house intern, that then got his press credentials revoked and then subsequent reinstated some weird strange episode

he's also an affiliate assistant professor at the university of washington's department of health metric sciences. also with us, shannon pettypiece, veteran journalist, senior white house reporter for us at nbc news digital. doctor, i'd like to begin with you. i've covered my fair share of hurricanes over the years. we're always driving in as others are driving out, and there comes a moment where the emergency operations director says to everybody, if you didn't get out, there is now no more time for that. stay in place. batten down. is that where we are with this pandemic? can any effected change now affect the outcome other than some kind of strictly enforced, laugh-minute social distancing? >> thanks, brian. a national lockdown was needed two months ago. certainly now it would be playing catchup. so the answer to your question is absolutely. we need to stop with the mixed messages, with the non-evidence-based lack of definitive consistent messaging that we keep getting from the white house, whether it's now we need the general public potentially to fashion their own masks to protect t

let's grin p begin from los angeles, nick, the university of washington model frequently cited says georgia is still about two months away from being able to safe live reopen. >> absolutely, washington, they just tweaked their model and pushed georgia three days further down the lines to june 22nd, which as you said is two months away, georgia plans to start reopening tomorrow. florida was also pushed three days down the line to june 14th. interestingly, both of those states, these researchers say should be opening well after new york, which they say could open may 27th and in the meantime, wolf, we are also getting some more data from new york that will hopefully give us an indication as to where we have been, where we are, where we are going and how we should get there. >> reporter: the number of people infected by the rampant virus in new york state, the global hot spot, might actually be a stunning ten times higher than we thought. >> it tells us that this virus is much more widespread than we thought. >> reporter: phase 1 of an anti-body testing program suggests that as many as 2.7 mil

that's the broad outlines of the reopening plan. >> washington journal continues. host: our next guest is ali mokdad of the universityf washington. healthofessor of global at the institute for health metrics and evaluation here to talk about the topic of modeling. good morning to you. guest: good morning. host: could you talk about the university's role in modeling? tost: we have been asked model the needs for our hospital here at the university and for our county and then we started doing this for every state and we had a different approach and that backward calculation. how did your modeling compared to other modeling when it comes to death tolls from the coronavirus? guest: our models have performed much better than any other model so far there were models ranging from 2 million deaths. our model the highest mortality was 93,000. choose theid you approach that you did in your modeling compared to what others are doing? we look at susceptible, exposed, infected and recovered. early on we don't have enough testing and we don't know how many people are infected so we took a different approach and modeled mortality be

yesterday the university of washington model that the white house has been using released new updated numbers and they got a lot of attention because they had gone up from the previous expectations of 60,000 americans dead to 74,000. that, they thought, would be by the first week of august. if we stay at this current clip, we're going to hit 74,000 well before august. if 2,000 americans -- if we have leveled off somehow at 2,000 americans dying per day, which is what has basically happened for the last several days, we're going to be at 74,000 in a matter of a couple of weeks. >> alisyn, you're pointing out a very important point here, which is that we have to be cautious with the models that we look at. we know the models aren't perfect and are based on assumption. the ihme model from the university of washington which has been relied upon by the white house is perhaps based on the most optimistic of assumptions, including that every state would do stay-at-home orders and not lift them pra prematurely. the many states, even like florida which did put in stay-at-home orders have large

6100 people by forced that number going down us significantly this model is put out by t university of washington which predicts the death rate in every state of the country caused by the coronavirus and they usually just use day to day data and that's what changes so often and that's why our good cagestay home which impas the numbers that they otect a grapshows the projected peak of deaths in california is 10 days from now it's 70 people died that day april 17th fromcoronavir the website also projects how much our spital resources will be used during this pandemic here in california and projects wehave one week until hospital see a spike in patients as e've hrd from doctors here they're waiting for the search say that in in one week will need about 5,000 be and that's out of 26,000 available and the predictions assumewe continue to follow what the stahome order mean which it which means. >>can stay home unless you need to go on an essential air and we're going to go to the pharmacy hospitals to think something along hose lines or your a critical work or so it's time to give ourselves pat on the

now at 881. 22,000 people have tested positive for the coronavirus and then there is the university of washington modeling. a lot of people follow that. it suggests that georgia will not reach its daily death peak until next week. that in two weeks, the death toll in the state of georgia will double and triple by june. that model suggests the state should not reopen until june 22nd. of course, we're a long way away from that. john and alisyn. >> martin, thank you very much. we'll check back in with you to see what happens in the shopping center behind you. >> carlos del rio, the executive associate dean of emery school of medicine at grady health system. dr. juthani, the associate professor and infek tus disease specialist at yale. >>> dr. del rio, i want to start with you. you are at ground zero of where this sort of experiment of reopening is going to begin today. you are in atlanta. so what are hospitals and health care systems like yours planning for there over the next couple of weeks? >> well, we've been planning for this coronavirus epidemic for several weeks. we're ready and we hope that

he's been the one driving these models at the university of washington. i think what's changing a bit is they're getting data from other countries around the world. they were primarily basing a lot of what was happening with their original models, which were closer, showing closer to 100,000 people dying, almost exclusively on wuhan. saying here's what wuhan did. if we can do the same thing, then we could sort of get to this number. but we're -- it's not clear that we can do the same thing. wuhan had a significant state of lockdown. now they're seeing other countries that did have significant lockdowns but not as extreme as wuhan, maybe not as early as what you saw in wuhan. yet, they're having success. seeing social distancing measures be successful even if not implemented as stringently as wuhan. maybe a little bit of evidence that even a little bit or moderate amount of social distancing can go further than they originally thought. a caution to your point, alisyn, to a lot of statisticians' points. the numbers may still bounce around a bit. they project

host: the chief strategy officer at the university of washington population health initiative, also arofessor of global health at the university. thank you for being with us. dr. mokdad: my pleasure. host: we mentioned the issue of face masks. today, this announcement from governor andrew cuomo ordering all new yorkers to cover their face in public. similar orders in a number of other states, including maryland and here in washington dc. more from the governor in albany earlier today. governor cuomo: i am going to issue an order that urges all people in public to have mouth and nose covering, and they must where you a situation are not maintaining social distancing. meaning what? meaning the same thing we have been saying from day one. if you are going to be in public, and you cannot maintain social distancing, then have a mask. and put the mask on when you are places.ocially distant you are walking down the street, you are walking down the street alone, great. you are now at an intersection and there are people in the intersection, and you are going to be in proximity to other people

but, the university of washington's model has been onde the low and there are questions about the accuracythe official death count. some say it may overlook thosee who die at homwithout seeking meedcal care, and those who without being tested for coronavirus. in washington d.c., trum administration officials say they are planning for life after the pandemic, but cautioned that was stl a ways off. dr. anthony fauci on "fox news." >> if in fact we are successful, it makes sense to at least plan what a re-entry into normality would look like. that doesn't mean we're going to do it right now, but it means we need to be prepared to ease into that. >> yang: dr. deborah birx on nbc's "tod" program. >> what's really important is that people don't turn these early signleof hope into ing from the 30 days to stop the spread. it's really critical. and you can sethe delay. so if people srt going out again and socially interacting, we could see a very acute second wave, very early. >> yang: president trump expressed optimism on twitter, saying the u.s. uld "open up our great country sooner rather than l

washington and this is cnn's continuing coverage of the coronavirus pandemic. important new numbers today in the coronavirus fight. a model the white house often cites from the universityon now estimates 60,000 deaths in the united states by august. while that number is numbing, the same model predicted 82,000 deaths yesterday, and 102,000 or more a week ago. perhaps an improved longer term outlook, but the daily death toll is beyond staggering. more than 1900 americans lost to coronavirus yesterday. the current