>> the natural unrate, i suspect the fed thinks is about 5.5%. approach 5.5%, that's the level at which inflation theoretically doesn't go up our down. maybe 5.5, but 5 would be pressing it. >> i'm going to ask you the same question i asked david kelly -- how much do you trust the fed? do you think they will be right in their projections? >> you know, brian, i trust in what they tell us. i don't necessarily trust in terms of how they get to the point that they tell us. you know, the fed is based historically on models, and modeling of cyclical types of movements. the last 20 to 30 to 40 years in terms of neru and in terms of what they follow as the taylor model. john taylor from stanford produced a model in the early '90s that suggested the short-term interest rates should be 2% and with 2% inflation, the nominal rate should be 4. that's basically what they follow. we suspect with our new neutral that that has changed substantially. we saw a bit of that today with steve liesman's discussion on the blue dots on a long-term basis. we'll hear more f