it's a fiscal problem on top of a competitiveness problem untop of an unsustainable balanced trade and of course, on top of debt levels, as you well know, and in greece and now, in portugal and ireland and arguably, also in italy, these debt levels are not sustainable under their current arrangements. now, even minor optimistic colleagues from whom you'll hear in a moment, i think will agree. outcome in europe will be deep recession. austerity. that's the good scenario. high unemployment, low growth and that's got not good news for our situation. the down side scenario that i would emphasize, my second point, is much worse. the spillovers from their sovereign debt problems to their financial system and from their megabanks that frankly, are very badly run, have far too little capital, those issues were clear already in 2007/2008 when i was the chief economist at the imf, they have not made the system safer and it is a dagger pointed directly at our financial system. and in terms of wha in terms o direct negative impact on our economy and our budget, this is a huge risk. this is a risk