the relationship between the us and china _ relationship between the us and china will be furthered destabilisedal insecurity, how. destabilised. in terms of. global insecurity, how much destabilised. in terms of- global insecurity, how much do you think us foreign policy potentially could change depending on who is in the white house?— depending on who is in the white house? ~ . ., , white house? what we have seen over the past _ white house? what we have seen over the past year _ white house? what we have seen over the past year is _ white house? what we have seen over the past year is that - white house? what we have seen over the past year is that the - over the past year is that the result— over the past year is that the result of— over the past year is that the result of america's _ over the past year is that the result of america's support i over the past year is that the i result of america's support for israel's — result of america's support for israel's war— result of america's support for israel's war in _ result of america's support for israel's war in gaza, _ result of america's sup

you think us and china _ last several years. you think us and china when - last several years. t several years. you think us and china when it comes| last several years. you think l us and china when it comes to ai will be more antagonistic or confrontational but the ai industry from the us side of things will loosen up with elon musk also in trump's side because god regular tory wise, absolutely. john pastor walk a tightrope because a lot of these companies- tightrope because a lot of these companie tightrope because a lot of these comanie ., a' . ,, these companies that make chips have infrastructure _ these companies that make chips have infrastructure in _ these companies that make chips have infrastructure in china. - these companies that make chips have infrastructure in china. a . have infrastructure in china. a blanket ban is very unlikely but we will see more and more of this sabre rattling going forward. ~ ., ., , ., ., forward. what does it mean for oorer forward. what does it mean for poorer nations _ forward. what does it mean for poorer nations that _ forward. what

every missile used in ukraine is a missile used in ukraine is a missile that the us cannot use to deter chinaood is they'll be used up likelihood is they'll be used up rather quickly in an intense spasm of violence and the russians will retaliate and inflict more horrific civilian casualties and by january, early february went from concept offers, it may be back at the bargaining table but with much higher loss of life in the interim. t with much higher loss of life in the interim.— with much higher loss of life in the interim. i wanted to ask about some — in the interim. i wanted to ask about some reports _ in the interim. i wanted to ask about some reports on - in the interim. i wanted to ask about some reports on us - in the interim. i wanted to ask. about some reports on us media suggesting that the answer to the why now question is that it's a direct response of north troops deployment. by russia. do you have any thoughts on that? ., �* , do you have any thoughts on that? . �* , ., , do you have any thoughts on that? . �*, ., , �*, do you have any thoughts on that? . �*, . , �*, ., that?

so broad the us china relations. donald trump is back and she's promising a return to an american 1st foreign policy. and that means taking on china. he's chosen to hold for the big jump, sundays, marco rubio for sex 3 estate. and mike wolfe's is national security advisor. both see china as the historic threat to us power. so what can we expect? well, let's take a look at the 2 biggest issues. the military situation and the prospect of a trade military fence, cj and ping is now well into his 2nd decade in power. china is getting stronger and more aggressive in the south china sea. it's coast guards, direst vessel from the philippines, and it's being threatening taiwan with air and navy trends. either of these flash points could start a war. the drags in the us. there is a risk and a growing risk of a use of force by china, either in the south privacy or in the taiwan strait. we know front of the us intelligence community that senior tech has told his military that it must have the capabilities to type type one by force in 2027. trump does not want that to happen while he's in charge.

china? we know the us is currently preventing access to china for certain ai chips, what do we need to understandnance? as far as the battle goes, the us is very much winning so far and i'm sure that the chinese leader has taken note of, xijinping, his comments to me that he wants more balance and equity makes perfect sense to me. de think we will see more protectionist measures when trump takes to the white house? i think that is quite likely. my company believes that some sort of tariff will be enacted. the full extent of that we don't know because we also have to remember a lot of american chip—maker like nvidia are very reliant on china as well so i don't think it would be anything like a total ban but i think there will be some of this tit—for—tat kind of stuff that we have seen in the last several years. you think us and china when it comes to ai will be more antagonistic or confrontational but the ai industry from the us side of things will loosen up with musk also in trump's side? regulatory—wise, absolutely. trump has to walk a tightrope because a lot of these companies that make chips h

he's a china expert at the us based carnegie think tank is research focus is on china as maritime power this use of economic coersion against trading partners that that's right. or actuality of withholding certain trade and the, the sort of control over the trading network itself helps give china a bunch of different mechanisms by which it can accomplish that. meaning, china has gaines leverage over many countries. in 2022, china was accused of having used it in the u. n. human rights council. there was a proposal to talk just talk about chinese human rights violations against the countries weak or muslim minority internment camps. here are the 47 countries in the council at the time these countries said yes to talking these countries said no. these upstate note that a lot of the african countries in the council voted know, china has invested in infrastructure projects in some of the countries that voted yes and all of the countries that voted no. the proposal was rejected. of course, it could have been a coincidence kind of interesting increase because most of the respirator to those c

and china relations. the? uss and china relations. they described president-elect i described president—elect donald trump as being nothing if not unpredictable. that donald trump as being nothing if not unpredictable.— if not unpredictable. that is the only thing _ if not unpredictable. that is the only thing we _ if not unpredictable. that is the only thing we know. - if not unpredictable. that isj the only thing we know. for if not unpredictable. that is - the only thing we know. for the chinese the good thing for donald trump perhaps is if he is willing to make a deal, irrespective of what that deal is. on the other hand, the other greater difficulty in here is he is unpredictable and here is he is unpredictable and he does not respect the red line that beijing and washington have had with each other in the last 50 years. that lack of respect towards the red line would really worry beijing. the red line would really worry bei'inu. the red line would really worry bei'in _ ., the red line would really worry bei

how do you see hong kong being impacted when it comes to the us—china relationship? ng from china. how much will hong kong feel that pain? hong kong could feel quite acutely. one of the things actively discussed in washington in congress is whether the trump administration will provoke the hong kong special status under the hong kong policy act, and treated like any other chinese city were trade and customs terms, which means it would apply to goods from hong kong. global air passenger numbers are set to double in about 20 years to 8.6 billion, according to iata. bahrain—owned gulf air is readying for that growth. my colleague suranjana tewari caught up with its boss jeffrey goh to talk about the challenges and opportunities he sees in the near future. we are challenged by two significant concerns, obviously one is geopolitical conflict in the middle east that's affected by unfortunately the conflict between israel and iran, that's affected traffic in the region. we hope this will not escalate, as much as other tensions around the world will not escalate because this

there is a risk and a growing risk of a use of force by china, either in the south privacy or in the taiwan strait. we know front of the us intelligence community that senior tech has told his military that it must have the capabilities to type type one by force in 2027. trump does not want that to happen while he's in charge. he has said time and again that he's going to prevent or is from happening and that was wouldn't happen under his watch he's. that's where he criticized joe biden. i think that resonated with the american public. so the us military will need to did tough. she, tim, paying for making moves on taiwan or the philippines and help us has a problem. a really big problem. to explain that, let's take a look at a map on china is east coast. there's a little island, just off shanghai. this is where you find that young man shipyard, which is a jewel use civilian military size. it recently launched china is us to aircraft carriers. so what's the problem for the us? well, this single shipyard has more capacity than all of the shipyards in the united states . put together, th

there is a risk and a growing risk of a use of force by china, either in the south china sea or in the taiwan strait to we know front of the us intelligence community that senior tech has told his military that it must have the capabilities to type taiwan by force in 2027. trump does not want that to happen while he's in charge. he has said time and again, he's going to prevent scores from happening. and that was what happened under his watch he's. that's where he criticized joe biden. i think that resonated with the american public, so the us military will need to did tough. she, tim paying for making moves on taiwan or the philippines and help us has a problem. a really big problem. to explain that, let's take a look at a map on china is east coast. there's a little island just off shanghai. this is where you find that young man shipyard, which is a jewel use civilian and military sites. it recently launched, china is us to aircraft carriers. so what's the problem for the us? well, this single ship yeah. has more capacity than all of the ship yards in the united states. put together.

china is only shipyard. the csr? yes. references a leak from the us navy briefing saying that china is over roll ship, building capacity is $230.00 times greater than americans. yes, you heard that right. $230.00 times the west can build 100000 tons of ships, naval and civilian every year. china can build 23000000 us may have the edge in terms of quality in some areas. but on that front too, there's little doubt that china can catch up. this is now trump's problem, and he won't be able to fix it on his own. it's a very, very serious problem and united states in order to get this right is going to have to also rely on japanese and korean allies who are ahead and ship building it's, it's going to be multi off alliance effort to get to get allied ship building up to anywhere close to our china is okay. hold that thought for a moment. let's move on to that other big issue. trace trump made imposing terrace on chinese imports cents a piece of his election campaign terrace downstairs. so, you did this before unleashing a war of what he saw as unfair trade w

like 10 percent, or you can start to percent of a terrace off, or that goods basically ship from china to the us. that is possible to see china doing this own thing. at the same time i'll be on the exports side also possible just so you turn the restricting or some optical uh, role materials or basically a certain products that china has a very straight big google market share all to in a way of trying to punish on the goshen with the u. s. this is also something quite possible even to return them may not be able to produce, let's say the most advanced chips to that sense. so yes, i think we're really heading towards a more intense geopolitical tensions for and not, or possibly one know in other 2 years. or i'd gary of the let's just for a moment assume that that, that would be a trade for what for what that feel like for the likes of you and i and people watching all over the world. i mean, we're not quite used to seeing goods on our shop shelves from everywhere nowadays. if there were a trade, what would that change? well is it, um, i would say if the uh, tariff ready gets so high to was uh 60

right now. china is often being described as not having the same leverage as the us. and when it comes to tyra's book is this also as well and an opportunity for china as well as well. they have an interconnected global trade and they're dependent on the us market. so if united states raises candice against china, and i have to say that again, and that's against global trade roles. whenever he raised these terms against canada or mexico, they're part of the trade agreement that's against trade. last, if you just raises tears against china, that's also against truthful. i know has a good chance to retaliate and, and, and increase terrace themselves against us. and us as the dependent on the trade with china. so they will be hurt as well. once for china raises the stakes. all right, we leave it there. claudio smoker on the german council on foreign relations. thanks for joining us today. on d. w. of course trade is not the only issue trump has with china. let's take a wider look now. i'll blocked from the 2nd term could mean for us china relations and security more broad

, do you think china has a strategy to deal with the us as well? china, history to the us as an adversary. that is basically the consensus here of democrats and republicans. now the difference with the truck administration versus the bind administration approach is that the us is going to treat china as an adversary right back. and it is going to do so in a bi level fashion as opposed to working with partners and allies in a multi lateral fashion. and also recognizing that or not recognizing is dividing ministration to that there are reasons to compete with china to cooperate with china and not just confront china. so it is what china has done is, is where the us reaction is and the trumpet administration is going to treat china as an adversary. as matthews choice for secretary of state, marco rubio said, i think what was it again, i'll just jump in that because i mean, we take one pointed to time in the rhetoric as you say, from those who seem to be in prominent cabinet positions like rubio, a see china as you say, as an adversary um they

mr xi described the relationship between china and the us as having "ups and downs" but that it plays key role in shaping global stability. he said that china is willing to support a smooth transition when us president—elect donald trump takes office in january. the comments follow mr trump's pledge to introduce significant tariff hikes on chinese goods as well as take a tougher diplomatic stance towards beijing. during the meeting, president biden reflected on his relationship with mr xi while in office. we haven't always agreed but our conversations have always been candid and always been frank. we have never kidded one another, we have been level with one another and i think that is vital. these conversations prevent miscalculations and ensure the competition between our two countries will not veer into conflict. i'm carl nasman. us presidentjoe biden met chinese president xi jinping on saturday — the final meeting between the two leaders before mr biden leaves the white house. they met on the sidelines of the apec summit in lima, peru. mr xi described the relationship between chin

the us imports a great dealfrom china relationship. us imports a great deal from china and relationship. the us imports a great dealfrom china and china imports a fairamount great dealfrom china and china imports a fair amount from the united states. there is a good bilateral trade relationship and there is a trade relationship through third—party countries, whether it is vietnam or other countries. so for all the talk of decoupling, when you actually look at the trade relationship that includes those third—party countries, there has not really been any decoupling. so it is still a very strong trade relationship. and of course, a tariff of any significance is going to not only hamper that trade relationship, but increase inflation in the us and probably force the chinese to devalue... that would be one of the only courses of action they could take to keep goods competitive.— competitive. that would certainly _ competitive. that would certainly change - competitive. that would certainly change things. i there are a number of american bus

no one will describe the us china relationship is one of friends and yetjoe biden and xi jingping havee of the planet. vital for the future of the lanet. , ., �* .,, vital for the future of the lanet. �* , planet. joe biden has been in ower planet. joe biden has been in powerfor_ planet. joe biden has been in power for four _ planet. joe biden has been in power for four years - planet. joe biden has been in power for four years about i planet. joe biden has been in| power for four years about his take on a strident approach when it comes to time and what you think is change the four years in office? jae you think is change the four years in office?— you think is change the four years in office? joe biden took took a lot _ years in office? joe biden took took a lot of _ years in office? joe biden took took a lot of advice _ years in office? joe biden took took a lot of advice from - years in office? joe biden took took a lot of advice from mike | took a lot of advice from mike mansfield and described the importance of alliance relationships. and when one looks at the indo specific and t

the us and china have yet to commit to specific time lines. the despite initiatives like to bite and administrations funding for the infrastructure. the reality is that building the systems takes time in europe. countries like germany into u. k, have modified their e. v mandates do the political changes highlighting the complexities of this transition. the china, on the other hand, is aggressively pushing for e v adoption, leveraging its huge manufacturing capacities and state assistance is a situation in china. s great deal east greatly influencing the votes, comma, because it's a demonstrated on one hand for how many applications electric vehicles. now of pro trinity for consumers, for legacy carmakers jeep chinese eves had been a wake up call in the us and europe, governments are sending off chinese imports with terrorists. but in these 2 mass markets, that's making affordable, leaves less affordable, putting another debt, and any vi adoption can you look at china, which is the world's largest current market, and they've been going gang bus

and in fact, the leaders of the us, china, which is the 2nd biggest producer india, which is rice out there, and france and germany and not attending when we know that the us, china, india, and the european make up european union make up well more than 50 percent of the global greenhouse emissions does the say something about that commitment to these talks absolutely elizabeth oven before i come to that, if i can add to what does it mean said to me from selection is a devastating sent back and it's going to shake the foundations of multilateralism . it's bad news for climate action. it's bad news for global populations. it's also bad news for the planet to little. not because the us has been doing a lot, but the cannot let the biggest his daughter go, emma tall and the thought plus of fuel producer off the hook. and he's going to cause a monumental reversal of clean energy policy that we have seen finally taking shape in the us and having some impact. so all the hard one games are going to be it all that and we'll see more positive for the next section. i know climate finance, so we n

china. so i think the jury is a little bit out on how close or how far apart the us in china will be. and i suspect we're going to get an answer to that pretty quickly. we've also seen a trauma replacing the signal that it intends to withdrawal from the global system and they will try bodies and so on. could we see more countries having to collaborate with china as a result of that? and i think it's very possible. i suspect that especially tre dependent region, like asia, we'll be looking for opportunities to shore up open trade, open markets, consistent rules, wherever they can find that. so we already have in asia, an agreement that links 15 of the economies together from china all the way through to australia, new zealand. i think that's the kind of commitments that at least could store up trade lanes. they have times of disruption. now, how enthusiastic lead the members will embrace this is unclear because disruption is also an opportunity for those members to rethink whether the agreement itself is fit for purpose, even though it's relatively new agreement. but you'll also be loo

the country is one of the largest trading partners of the us, even rivalling china. ndent to tell us more. archana, what has been the reaction to trump's re—election, and what impact could his trade policies have on india? it's expected to be mixed. on one hand, because prime minister modi and trump have had a good rapport, mutual admiration since its first term, it's admiration since its first term, its expected that the two leaders would take it on a very positive note, and there he continued to be a good association like they've had for years now. also, trump's focus on increasing tariffs on chinese imports is something that could help india. the white house sees india as a counterweight to china in the region and are trying to push more commerce deals, defence deals, us companies that are coming and investing to diversify their supply chains and are coming into india. but at the same time, there concerns that these tariff taxes could hit india two. drum has been vocal about india having higher tariffs. has been vocal about india having highertariffs. in has been v

xijingping have a 20 year relationship in the two of them together have work to stabilise the us and china war sentiment, even if they've not been able to forge a truly close partnership. i think no one would describe the us and china relationship today is one of friends, yetjoe biden and xijingping have managed xi jingping have managed differences xijingping have managed differences over taiwan, north korean policy or russia and ukraine, and tried to land a lease stability and ballast to a relationship which is vital to the future of the planet. —— at least. to the future of the planet. -- at least. �* ., , , at least. biden has been in ower at least. biden has been in power for _ at least. biden has been in power for four _ at least. biden has been in power for four years - at least. biden has been in power for four years and i at least. biden has been in - power for four years and during that time he has taken a strident approach to china so what you see is the legacy when it comes to his policy on china and east asia during his four years in office? jae and east asia during his four ye

that was because the market worrying about potential rising tensions between china and the us. y market has been performing well in recent days as well, when stimulus was announced. so there now appears to be a strong consensus among chinese policymakers to put a floor on the downside risks to the growth of the economy right now. ., ~' growth of the economy right now. ., " ., growth of the economy right now. . ~ ., ., ., , now. talking about the various sectors likely _ now. talking about the various sectors likely to _ now. talking about the various sectors likely to be _ now. talking about the various sectors likely to be impacted, | sectors likely to be impacted, which sectors of the chinese economy do you feel are most likely feeling it? i economy do you feel are most likely feeling it?— likely feeling it? i think if the market _ likely feeling it? i think if the market is _ likely feeling it? i think if the market is assuming l likely feeling it? i think if- the market is assuming higher rising tariffs coming to china, the immediate and direct impact will likely most be fel

the us in china, i have yet to commit to specific timelines. the despite initiatives like to buy it and administrations funding for the infrastructure. the reality is that building the systems takes time in europe. countries like germany into u. k, have modified their the mandates due to political changes highlighting the complexities of this transition. the of the china, on the other hand, is aggressively pushing for e v adoption leveraging it's huge manufacturing capacities and state assistance as a situation in china. s great deal east. great influence intervals commer because it's a demonstrate that on one hand, for how many applications electric vehicles um now upfront a ton of the for consumers, for legacy carmakers jeep chinese eves had been a wakeup call in the us and europe, governments are sending off chinese in boards with terrorists, but in these 2 mass markets, that's making affordable, leaves less affordable, putting another dent any the adoption. can you look at china, which is the world's largest current market, and they've been

moon strategies and former assistant us trade representative for chinak will happen with regards to cars made in mexico going into the us via various companies who are based there?— us via various companies who are based there? well, the auto industry within _ are based there? well, the auto industry within the _ are based there? well, the auto industry within the three - industry within the three countries in north america is very well integrated already, there is already the order supply chain. to the extent, however, that china for example wants to import evs into the united states by rewriting its supply chain through mexico, that i think that is new tariffs may address some of that to a certain extent. this will make it difficult for the chinese to make plans for a byd plant, for example, until they know exactly how much the tariffs are going to be and when they will start, what else they may cover. this complicates their business plans significantly. and another thing that is important about the order supply chain is that in 2026, the us mexico can

us. exports from china to the us. tantial — and if there's a big step down, it'll still have a shock to china, there china can mitigate it somewhat. {iii there china can mitigate it somewhat-— there china can mitigate it somewhat. ., ., , somewhat. of the two economies, eve bod somewhat. of the two economies, everybody knows _ somewhat. of the two economies, everybody knows that _ somewhat. of the two economies, everybody knows that tariffs - everybody knows that tariffs are not good for both sides will stop which of the economies, us or china, has more capacity within it? the effects are _ more capacity within it? the effects are slightly - more capacity within it? tue: effects are slightly different. the us economy is probably in the stronger position right now, it seems to be going through a soft landing. the impact on the us economy will probably be inflationary, and therefore a slower pace of rate cuts from the fed. but it's still in reasonably good shape as trump takes office. whereas china is in a malaise they a

this girl that models as a truck with, you know, and that's a reliance that has some china on the one hand and the us going forward. so looking more in would be within southeast asia or the half asian pacific at large extruding time. i know how concerning will that be full china, that other countries across the region will be looking to diversify from chinese investments so that they're not facing a secondary terrace. and although you've spoken about the measures that china has, has taken to, i suppose trump proof it's economy with the chinese economy in the states that it's in kind of afford another trade for to well, your, your peeve, supposing that china is on the brink of a disaster, i think if you came here, you'd understand that that's just not the case. there is a significant pain that's been felt the china's handling of the real estate, for instance, they want to bring down housing prices. so you can't let the real estate industry and go hog wild, so they're doing what is necessary to control their economy and put in place what they intend to do. remember the difference between china and most

i think for china, used the opportunity to express their hope, their aspirations. their vision for the relationship and hope president trump will listen to the chinese message somehow. we heard from xijinping saying china is ready to work with the new trump administration, saying they want a smooth transition when it comes to china and us ties for the given some of the rhetoric we've heard from donald trump how likely do you think a smooth transition may be? we're going to look at a very turbulent period of the bad relationship. if you look at robably the year of the best us relations in the past years and the next future eight years. donald trump is made a number of comments about trade with china and the unfair] two trade practices from china. he also made comments about china's relationship with the united states being unfairfor the us workers, for the us people. i think trade will be his priority. the way he plans to address the trade imbalance according to his campaign rhetoric is to impose a 60% tariff across the board. what is the likelihood of that? are we o