air so investors are betting that read cuts are in the cards for twenty nineteen but the us federal reserve bank is also indicated that they may in fact join the negative interest rate bandwagon oh my god outhere thought. well we've had a lot of this stuff recently i mean they've been pushing m.m.t. as well i mean again the federal no hope i mean they started trying to reduce their balance sheet. really anticipating the day when they might need to expand it again and they didn't get very far with that before suddenly they had to put everything. you know to to hope that the problem that we face globally is one of cycles you've got the credit cycle which has no peaks i think that is becoming clear as we have seen that. the global economy has definitely slowed down but on top of that you've got a lot of the fact that is trade protectionism now the last time we had a combination of trade protectionism and the credit cycle assets peak coming off a speaker was in one thousand nine hundred twenty nine and in october one thousand nine hundred twenty nine they passed the smoot hawley terry fraps this is

but there is a growing perception at least you on wall street and within the us federal reserve, the country's central bank the economy is actually slowing and if you look at the figures that were released today, they are unlikely to change that perception. the latest gdp perception for the final months of the year actually showed the us economy slowed down more than people initially thought. the other thing that came out of this report was that came out of this report was that corporate profits failed to rise to the first time in more than two years, so as these talks:, america's point of advantage, if you like, is diminishing. -- as these talks go on. it has been five years since the launch of china's belton road initiative, and it has sparked criticism that countries taking part unable to pay back their debts but the worries are over loans which countries take to pay for large infrastructure projects. earlier this week, we heard from the head of the asian infrastructure investment bank, which gives these loans and acknowledge these concerns. bank, which gives these loans and acknowledge these concernsm

most recently, the chair of the us federal reserve, jerome powell, has said that the central bank doesto interest rates. the committee will announce their decision on wednesday. joining us is simon derrick, chief markets strategist at bank of new york mellon. the fed meeting later this week will bea the fed meeting later this week will be a big factor on the markets. the fed meeting later this week will be a big factor on the marketslj think be a big factor on the markets.” think it is. over the course of the last few months, the message from the us central bank has changed. if you go back to october and november, they were very gung ho about hiking rates and continuing to take money out of the system. let's call it quantitative easing's opposite, quantitative easing's opposite, quantitative tightening. but now there are concerns about a global slowdown and what is happening in markets. the message has changed. we are likely to see them perhaps announced that they will bring to a close this programme of reducing their balance sheet. the jobs figures were quite disappointing for the pre

the federal reserve on hold. the us central bank says it now expects no rate rises this year, as the world's largest economy slows down. denham is back on wall street, the iconic jeans brand levi strauss is set to make its return to the top market. good morning asia, hello world, how are you out there? glad you could join us for another exciting addition of asia business report, and rico hizon. now let's start off with the us in the country's central bank has said it now does not expect to raise the cost of borrowing at all this year as the economy slows. the federal reserve has changed its outlook to predicted increases in december, it warned that growth of economic activity has slowed from solid rate in the fourth quarter of 2018. earlier, iasked solid rate in the fourth quarter of 2018. earlier, i asked an analyst whether this takes pressure off the central bank, which had been wearing and cautious of tightening monetary policy. for the asia-pacific, we're looking at central banks which have had to tighten monetary policy off the

developments in the china—us trade talks and the brexit saga, while awaiting the conclusion of a key federal reserve meeting. we should get hints later in the day from the us central bankthe pace of interest rate rises. a slowdown in the us economy and the world economy mean that the two rate rises that analysts were expecting this year, may not now happen. give us your best smile! it's the international day of happiness today, when people around the globe are being urged to do what makes them happy and spread a little happiness, too. for the sixth year in a row, the world happiness report will look at what is important to people's well being. our home editor mark easton has been to northampton, a town that is taking the pursuit of happiness very seriously. britain is suffering from brexit blues, according to health experts and academics. there are warnings that economic uncertainty and political instability could damage the nation's mental health but here in northampton, town leaders are working together to spread a little happiness. i feel a little bit down but at a local surgery, doctor david smart is regarded as a happy evangelist, for stress, anxiety and mild depr

reserve bank. wonderful to have you with us. thank you for joining us. let's start with the federalet me ask you whether you think the fed's latest dovish pivot is setting them up for policy mistake. i think it is too early to tell. we don't know for sure. it might be the kind of overreacted in dovish signals. i think there is reasonable for caution in patients, but the danger is sending forward guidance about how long that will last and how it will play out, it is a little tricky. the fed often gets into, and central banks, is reacting to short-term events and then having to fall back or we know on signals -- back or renege on signals they said. i think they need to keep their options fairly open and not shut them down perhaps as dramatically as the markets perceived them to do. nejra: yes, and to get to the point you made about reacting to short-term events. ont brings me to the theory real business cycles that you pioneered. is that theory still relevant to today's circumstances? charles: of course it is. there are lots of shocks that occur to economies and the world economy and

bank says a systemic claim for. welcome back there are new developments in the scandal surrounding one m. d. be the natori official development initiative of the malaysian finance ministry the us federal reserve this week banned two former employees of goldman sachs a large bank from working in the banking sector the fed accused the two with complicity in diverting billions of dollars from the one m. d. be fun mirroring legal charges filed against the two last year by the u.s. department of justice tim lesnar one of the two backers also agreed to pay a fine of one point four million dollars to the fed meanwhile a key figure in the one m. d.b. case wheeler dealer joe lowe was in. now suspected by federal investigators of being the true source for the one hundred thousand dollar donation made by larry davis of l n s capital to a campaign committee supporting president donald trump according to the wall street journal mr lowe is currently a fugitive avoiding arrest on one m.t.b. related charges in the us and in malaysia. and bitcoin has been the eight hundred pound gorilla in the crypto space since it came onto the scene a decade ago but recent data show the that some other crip those are tradin

seen so two months ago central banks have collectively injected as much as five hundred billion dollars of liquidity to stabilize economic conditions the us federal reserve has put interest rate increases on hold and is contemplating a halt to its balance sheet reduction plan other central banks have taken similar actions fuelling and a new phase of that quote everything bubble as markets careen from december's indiscriminate selling to january's indiscriminate buying right this idea of quantitative tightening as a hoax there was no tightening on a global basis it's always been expanding and it has to always expand digital money not cash like gold but digital digital ponzi scheme it has to keep expanding its fifty trillion is now the global dead officially of course as much higher than that the global the revenues market is in the quadrillions there's no countries like japan or two hundred fifty percent debt to g.d.p. countries approaching one hundred percent of g.d.p. some countries interest on their debt is approaching one hundred percent of their g.d.p. so there is no there is. reconciliation of the debt bomb and there is no purchasing power to be gai

us. -oh, no, i couldn't. -please. -okay. [ singing in spanish ] ♪ ♪ maria: welcome back. the federal reserve bankpolis president neel kashkari got what he wanted haas week, no plans for rate increases in 2019. despite that victory, he's taking an issue with how the federal reserve came to the decision. he said that the he has serious beefs with how the fed is assessing the economy, having an important conference next week, an event in minneapolis to talk about it. neel kashkari will be a voting member of the federal reserve next year, and he joins me right now to explain. it's good to see you. thank you so much for joining us. i want to get into what you'd like to see happen next week, but first, the big news of the week was that yield inversion. short-term rates higher than long-term rates. and a lot of people worry that that is an indicator that a recession is at hand. how to do you see it? >> well, it's the best indicator we have of all the data that we look at historically in predicting recessions. so it's something that i'm certainly paying a lot of attention to, i think my colleagues are. a

etween 2.50%, how are they likely to use a large balance sheet as a monetary policy tool in the case of an unexpected downturn? for instance, san francisco federal reserve bank president daly has suggested you could use your balance sheet as a regular monetary policy tool. does this mean that q.e. could become routine in this low interest rate environment? if so, does this entail buying securities as the fed did during the financial crisis and at a similar size and pace or could you consider smaller scale purchases and types of securities? with that, i will now recognize the distinguished ranking member, mr. henry, for five minutes for questions. mr. henry: good morning. chairman powell, i have a series of questions for you. i would love to have your answers on these questions. you testified yesterday regarding the bank's balance sheet, which stands at roughly $4 trillion. you gave an answer about normalizing the balance sheet and what your view of that normalization looks like. you referenced the demand for reserves as a reference point for that. can you elaborate on that? chairman powell: sure, i would be glad to. before the financial crisis, the side of t

us. back and see climate change is becoming more and more relevant to central bankers. according to federal reserve bankcisco reports, they say it could affect the economy through elevating credit spreads come up greater precautionary saving, and an extreme financial crisis. joining us is see bashar -- is seema shah of principal global investors. what is the global fallout from that? seema: you kind of referred to it before. how do they respond to it? when we are looking at a global growth slow down, it is probably one of the factors in which it is ultimately going to fall behind. when we think about what is going to be the next financial crisis, probably the environmental side isn't the first that comes to mind, but over a longer time period is becoming more important. carol: there's costs going into stop or slow climate change at the front end, but the back end, if we don't do it there are incredible costs, economic, corporate. when do we start to kind of a line are thinking that it is better to get ahead of this. seema: i think most people would agree. you need politicians that believe in climate cha

it wants guidance from the us central bank, that set the tone in the markets across the world today. mining stocks and energy stocks are up after the federal reserve retail sales figures overall, shares in both next and ted baker are down following those results. ted baker down by more than 6%. the pound is lower against the dollar and the euro. more positive overall retail sales did not make much change in its trajectory. that is all from me. thank you. up to 4,000 russian men are believed to have travelled to syria and iraq to fight for so—called islamic state. now that the caliphate has collapsed, and many of those militants killed, russian officials are being faced with appeals to bring back is wives and children. while some repatriations have stalled, dozens of children have already returned. the bbc‘s sarah rainsford went to the southern russian republic of dagestan to meet some of them. abu bakr and samira grew up in the so—called islamic state. back home in russia, they are free to be children again. but it is their aunt who is looking after them. their father was killed in an air strike against isis. their mother is serving a life sentenc

lauren: the federal reserve is dialing back on its use of stress tests for financial firms. it says it will no longerrer fail banks because of perceived weakness in capital reserves. the move a big win for major banks which the industry has long criticized as too onerous. ashley: from wall street, to capitol hill. it was a tough day for homeland security secretary kirstin nielsen yesterday. she testified that 1 million illegal immigrant arrivals are expected at our border just this year. lauren: pretty amazing numbers. griff jenkins is live in washington as president trump urges lawmakers to support his emergency declaration at the border. griff, good morning. >> reporter: good morning, guys. what a hearing it was that was captivated sitting in there. fireworks were flying. the homeland security chairman, benny thompson admonished the secretary for what he called a nonexistent emergency at the border and grilled her on humanitarian concerns. >> are we still using cages for children? >> sir, we don't use cages for children. in the border facilities that you've been to, they were not made to detain children. to my k

maria: coming up this morning, minneapolis federal reserve bank p president and ceo is with us this morningrick reader is here, big interviews on the heels of big news from markets where you had an inverted yield curve. these guys are perfectly positioned to talk about what it means and what the impact could be. president trump hitting the green new deal last night. he hit it hard at a rally in michigan, saying he wants the democrats to make it a big part of their 2020 platform because he would love to campaign against it. before the president spoke, donald trump junior took the stage, the crowd quickly let him know how they feel about the author of the plan. >> [ indiscernible ] maria: oh, god. this coming as a new poll shows alexandria ocasio-cortez's poll numbers are dropping. joining the conversation this morning is fox business network's dagen mcdowell, benchmark managing partner, kevin kelly and james fre freem. great to see everybody this morning. >> great to be here. >> amazing lineup, neil cashkari makes headlines when he comes out with papers or gives talks. he has different opini

us in the studio and that brian as something i'm in the u. s. central bank is say that the well the number one economy is slowing. and sailor the u. s. federal reserve board has just wrapped up its second policy meeting. for twenty nineteen as expected the central bank left interest rates u untoucheded at two and a quarter to two anand a half percrcent and not just for t ths meeting b but rather. forecastingg that rates won't be hiked at all dururing. twentyty nineteen investors have been watching for signals on the for the longer term economic outlook as grow global growth rather slows. as recently as last september central bankers were expected to raise rates three times in twenty nineteen the fed now sees u. s. growth slowing to two point 1% this year that down from two point 3% in their previous forecast. and well below the trump administration's prediction of three point 2% fed chair drone palaces the european and chinese economies have slowed substantially but he sounded a positive note on america's serious. the us economy is in a good place and we will continue to use our monetary policy tools to help keep it there. the jobs market is strong

. >> and when you're considering , can you give us a sense of what the federal reserve's review of this bank, community reinvestment bank, track record with compliance with fair lending laws will look like? >> we'll look thoroughly at it . we'll look at the rating, of course, which i believe it's satisfactory now. banks that have a less than satisfactory rating have a hard time. we'll look at that and also consider public comments and a full range of information. any information that's presented to us we'll consider. >> i ask this question because it seems to me that particularly at the occ, who has released a proposal without input from the fed or fdic, contemplating sweeping changes to the implementation of the community reinvestment act. in a spaech last year, governor brainard say the community reinvestment act was, quote, "more important than ever." she stressed that branch and deposit atms remain an important way banks engage with the community. you also highlighted the importance of enforcing the cra and other laws that help ensure people have adequate access to financial services whe

federal reserve is likely to keep interest rates unchanged at 2.25—2.5%. however, wall street will be looking for clues about future rate hikes in the fed's outlook. 0ptimism on the us markets about what the bankby reports of fault lines emerging in us—china trade negotiations. that will be one to keep an eye on going forward this week. and the bluejean king levi's is set to return to the public market. the maker of 501 jeans is expected to price its initial public offering before shares begin trading on thursday on the new york stock exchange. sophie kilvert, senior investment manager at seven investment management is here. we heard about the decision from the fad is due later. general consensus that we are expecting they will put the brakes on any rate rises that we re the brakes on any rate rises that were in the pipeline. we are not expecting them to raise rates, possibly not at all this year. there is even talk they might start looking at cutting rates toward the end of the year. we are looking for what they say in their statement, will they signal caution against the future of rising rates? in other economic news, unemployment figures in the uk and we get inflation figures later, what wi

plunging in q4 by the most since the financial crisis the federal reserve making big changes to the bank stress test and kroger plunging. joining us the market today, stephanie link, global research director we're also going to get costco earnings this hour mike, we are now in a losing streak. >> yes we have a pullback of some description. we don't know. 2% off the highs, closing highs for the s&p 500 set on friday. back down to a level we first got up to on this round, you know, three or four weeks ago and obviously very routine and benign looking and people say that's now the fourth time in the last six or eight month that is we failed to get above this particular level in the s&p that we have to rethink the global growth picture that to me the conversation we are having but i don't think it's changed the substance of what we have seen this year going into right now. >> fed, the fed pivot to dovish really helped markets. >> yes. >> why hasn't the ecbpivot don the same in. >> the fed pivot was the premise and i think general dovishness i think was already assumed for central banks. i think the problem is with the fed it seemed li

federal reserve's two-day policy meeting is kicking off today. the central bank is expected to signal no rate hikes in the coming months. it is also expected to specify as they give us a date when they plan to end their massive operation to reduce their balance sheet. jerome powell will hold the news conference a after the meeting, that's going to be tomorrow afternoon. lauren: the march meeting caused march madness for the markets. brexit is certainly causing madness. it's getting more complicated, if that was possible. as the speaker of parliament says he will not hold a third vote on prime minister theresa may's deal until she drastically changes it. the speaker citing a 400-year-old rule that says the government cannot resubmit the same proposition that's already been rejected. lawmakers voted to delay brexit by at least three months which ththeeuropean union will have to agree to. cheryl: students nationwide may soon be able to breathe a sigh of relief as the trump administration is asking for a complete overhaul of education funding. lauren: fox business reporter edward lawrence has more on that. >> reporter: the white house hoping to tweak a little bit the ed

us. a beautiful new york. this is bloomberg. ♪ tom: bloomberg "surveillance." our first word news in new york. viviana: president trump's pick for the federal reserve said the central bankately cut rates by 50 basis points. viewen moore defending his that it was wrong to raise rates in september and december and called the latter hike inexplicable. he said he will not be a sycophant for president trump. the global in or market is likely to have export issues. a billionaire cautioning producers could face constraints and boosting output. >> i think there will be a supply deficit in our operations are massive. you just cannot turn up or down the dial that easily. you guarantee that deficit? i cannot. viviana: the kiwi is tumbling after the central bank says the next move is likely a cut. traders are bracing for a 25 basis point cut by august following in the footsteps of the u.s. federal reserve. the u.s. bank signaled at may not raise rates this year. the uk's gender gap is not explained by role. be of the wage gap could not explained by observable factors and could come down to workplace bias, female workers earning on average 5% less than male copart's. -- male coworke

this week, from one the federal reserve of new york and one from former economists of the world bank show the trade turmoil is taking a toll on u.s. economy and u.s. businesses with us"the washington post" titled the left's embrace of modern monetary theory is a recipe for disaster, former treasury secretary larry summers. good to have you back. good morning >> good to be with you >> this might be one case in which some of your critics often from the right are glad to hear from you >> hello >> mr. secretary, can you hear me >> yes, now i can, sure. >> okay. i was -- my point was after reading your piece, some of your critics on the right mighton your side on this one. >> well, i don't know what different political actors think, but i think that one thing that every american ought to support is the laws of arithmetic and laws of arithmetic don't say you can't borrow money and, indeed, often it's a good idea to borrow money. i've been very much of a -- the persuasion that we needed more fiscal stimulus over some number of years to have expanded the recovery more rapidly. but this idea of so-called modern monetary theory that the government can just print the money it