[applause] ba©nacdicte paviot, our correspondent, joins us from london.nedict, you have been listening to that address. corbyn sounds like a man on a mission? reporter he is a man on a mission. he is a man who believes that he and his party have the right answers for the future relationship of the u.k. with the eu man who plans to be prime minister and the next prime minister, and he lieves that he is leading a government in waitingp he said asthma, in response to the first journalist? question who asked him that. we are not there, but no doubt that this is clear the water. now, official labor policy to be clear between the official conservative politic government, to resume a, heresa may.omt jeremy corbyn has set out saying that not only does he believe that the u.k. should stay in the customs union in the two-year period after the official date that the u.k. will officially eu, but he now says that there should be a negotiation of a new treaty and that the u.k. should negotiate a customs union, and other words, . bespoke customs union where there will b

. >> joining us from london -- alongside matt, kathy and mike.et your market check for you, to's, tends and 30's. you have to say that despite all of this market action and all the noise around the issue -- treasuries have been pretty resilient through the week. still ahead, featuring comments from both jay powell and mario draghi. we will have that conversation very shortly, this is bloomberg real yield. ♪ ♪ >> i am jonathan, this is bloomberg real yield. it is time for the final spread. coming up, one of the main highlights will be the new federal reserve chairman jay powell. we will get a fresh round of economic data including numbers on a u.s. gdp plus mario draghi and theresa may will both be speaking. to wrap things up, matt, kathy and mike. matt, what are we looking for from chairman powell? >> i was reading the transcript. there were enough interesting speeches from powell. i think he will have his eye on financial stability more so than we have seen for other chair people. with that in mind, even though we don't see risks to financial st

the director joins us from london. just spell out what this means.ing is if the uk's stays within the customs union, it is less the eu, but it cannot strike its own trade deals, so to go to what liam fox was saying, does it leave the u.k. completely hamstrung? >> yes indeed. ,he latest twists and turns what has been clear so far from theresa may's position and that of the conservative party is the policy for the future trading relationship with the u.k. had left the eu was to leave the single market. why? because it does not want free movement of people anymore. second, it wants to have the power to strike its own new free trade deal. however, there is an entire other school of thought that says we want to stay close to the eu and we want to be in the eu as a trading block because there is not much evidence to suggest that once we leave the eu and are cut off from the eu trade policies that we would be able to make up for that by striking our own free trade deals. the question that the british cabinet that's far has not been able to answer even thoug

jonathan: david riley joining us from london. bloomberg asset management strategist.ngside matt, kathy and mike. let's get your market check for you, to's, tends and 30's. -- two's, 10's and 30's. down the basis point on the 10 year, you've got to say that despite all of this noise around the issuance, treasuries have been pretty resilient through the week. still ahead, the final spread. featuring comments from both jay powell and mario draghi. we will have that conversation very shortly, this is bloomberg real yield. ♪ ♪ i am jonathan ferro, this is bloomberg real yield. it is time for the final spread. coming up over the next week, one of the main highlights will be the new federal reserve chairman jay powell testifying before congress. we will get a fresh round of economic data including numbers on gdp, plus ecb's mario draghi and theresa may will both be speaking. with me to wrap things up, matt hornback, kathy jones and david riley from bloomberg asset management. matt, what are we looking for from chairman powell next week? >> i've read every speech he has writt

strategist at blackrock, kathleen, director of fixed income at eden park management, and coming to us from londoni am pleased to say nick, from jpmorgan asset management. guys it's great to have you on , the program. i want to begin with you. the idea that bonds have no longer given risk mitigation if equities and turn lower, bonds still turn no one agrees go up. i'm wondering what you want to have the allocation to fixed income in that balanced portfolio. >> so in that last clip, and i did not catch his name, it is a really interesting perspective. but it is only one perspective, but an important perspective. jonathan: well, give me yours. >> how does the cycle end? that is really the big picture question. and there are two ways in which a business cycle and the credit cycle ends. either the economy overheats, and then the fed reacts to the overheating, and that is the scenario that that earlier clip is talking about. equities follow bonds lower. that's the scenario you get it -- if inflation is overheating. but there is another way, a more recent and familiar way as to how cycles end. and they

china center and research associate at the school of oriental and african studies in london he's joining us via skype from london mr magnus it's a real pleasure to have you with us on al-jazeera so why do you think that we are seeing this proposal now given you know the two term limit was introduced after maliki don't steps to ensure china what it succumbed to authoritarianism it was so why is the communist party considering that smell. yeah well i think as your correspondent said in the package just now from hong kong. it had been expected and certain speculated last october at which time of the nineteenth party congress in beijing that president's engineering might want to stay on for longer than ten years which is that the two five year terms and in fact the surprise not surprise i think the the the breaking of norms actually in china was highlighted by the fact that we did not find out last october as we would have expected to who might be next in line to succeed presidency in twenty twenty two so in a way the writing has been on the war i think it it's come as a bit of a surprise because the meeting

david griffith there head of the secretary general's office at amnesty international speaking to us from london . thank you. well as david mentioned amnesty has decided to launch their report in the united states which it says has endured an especially difficult year in terms of human rights other activist groups have also expressed concern about what they see as a rise in religious and racial intolerance under the troll presidency. for the first time and this internationals and all report is being released in the us capital washington d.c. for the human rights watch jack it's supposed to send a clear message and the secretary general explains why the united states is a country which has huge influence across the world but we have a president who has interviews of global gag rule who is scuttling free to resettlement numbers and who has introduced a muslim by an suv we want to hold it here to highlight the serious human rights violations which are being caused by this country and the message is clear that you know if you sacrifice human it comes at a huge human cost and it will never make ameri

reports israel unfun admitted the behavior previously denied the claim is barnaby phillips joins us from london barnaby tell us more about this report and the findings. well this is oxfam's attempt to be accountable belatedly you might say about what happened in twenty eleven the report as published online anyone can go and find it the names of the seven individuals who were sacked as a result or who left as a result of the twenty eleven investigation those names are blacked out but they won't be when the report is handed over to the haitian government later today it gives an impression of a pretty dysfunctional and unhappy operation that oxfam was running in the wake of the terrible earthquake in haiti it says that the use of underage prostitutes can't be ruled out as bullying this intimidation that the downloading of pornography and i think you know there's some embarrassment for oxfam as well the way in which the country director ronald on how the myron was allowed i quote a dignified and phased exit in return for cooperating with the investigation now the report says that one of the problem

us. he was. totally dry and you couldn't even talk to. the national live from moscow. on the program with us. now he may have spent more than five years holed up inside the ecuadorian embassy in london but you know the song will need to wait another week to find out whether a warrant for his arrest has been dropped so after hearing in the u.k. was postponed until february thirteenth let's get details now from one of the situation who's been getting the latest necessary just like us through what's happened today what it all means for assad's. fulla down despite so many expectations and assumptions that possibly today could be the day that julian a songe might potentially walk out of that embassy has been stuck in over the last five and a half years this is not going to be happening quite yet as that we can leaks founder continues to be stuck in legal legal limbo it was expected today that a judge would rule here in the court behind me to potentially lift the arrest warrant put in place by british officials in connection to the initial allegations made against julian the songe by swedish officials his legal team have been saying since since those were dropped it's time to drop the arr

london and washington. thank you very much for that for now that is our senior political analyst madman bashar joining us live from london thank you. we're going to move on to other news now and a north korean general has suggested that his country is willing to open talks with the u.s. kim yong choi who is n.p.r. for the winter and impacts closing ceremony made the remarks during a meeting with south korean president in came late sat in the v.i.p. box at the olympic stadium to watch the ceremony dismisses away from u.s. president don't want trump's daughter ivanka with south korea's leader is yet to accept pyongyang's invitation of a summit natasha good name has more known. i think that a lot of analysts believe that what we've seen in the last several weeks and really since the beginning of the year when the north korean press our leader rather agreed to participate in the olympics is that north korea is feeling the heat of the sanctions and is looking for a way to dial down tensions after a pretty hostile twenty seventeen that's the sort of pessimistic side of things a lot of people think that north korea has w

senior political analyst joining us from london the moment it was interesting was listening to this valedictory speech. human rights commission and hussein he listed a series of of events and listed a number of places where he's a human rights but definitely on the threat be saved his greatest frustration for the events in syria he's railed at it calling it a amongst campaign of annihilation. yes absolutely and i think in so many ways whether it is a question of syria or more importantly and more globally the question of the united nations security council the responsibility for the deterioration of an escalation of situation like that in syria or human rights in general around the world i think were very important very central and in so many ways i think what that hussein did was answer. to the general good terrorists i mean the fact that he juxtaposition the human rights and speaking of human rights in geneva visit the the so-called reality in new york and the so-called realists in new york i think that was really a very high moment in this warning what will we hear from geneva so let me say

from genuine debate so just to clarify for of who has we had a guest a lot of opposed to joining us from london is a well known russian journalist here to try and express a different view to vladimir kara who is an opposition activist and you have gagnon alberts who is an independent journalist in moscow he's decided to leave others let me go to yevgenia albats in moscow and let me ask you this when you hear. people like vladimir pozner who's now departed this show say your ideologues your opposition figures you know what's your response to the. you know i'm most surprised because what you want to force now is a very experienced a very professional journalist and he himself. spent quite some time working as a service propaganda mouthpiece during the soviet times and he himself denied that it was going to prom was a lot of has his own show on channel won which belongs to all of the state and which is unfortunately is just not a propaganda machine. to. to mislead russian people yevgeny a lot of people watching i understand his will a lot of people line might wonder what how it is that in a countr

using prostitutes joining an aid mission in haiti after the earthquake but to be phillips joins us from london what have we heard so far barnaby. what we've seen is senior oxfam executives being grilled by parliament's international development committee and it is an exercise in contrition one after the other they've said how sorry they are how a shame they are about what happened in haiti how they let down of course the people of haiti they let down employees of oxfam across the world and they let down the wider aid sector mark goldring the chief executive has been doing most of the talking he was not at salman twenty eleven he joined in twenty thirteen and he says that he had been told that the investigation had been closed in twenty eleven and it had been dealt with in a satisfactory manner and so he saw no need to reopen it when he joined oxfam what he has said which i think is very interesting is that in the days since this scandal emerged in a british newspaper what fourteen days ago i think that has been a call out within oxfam by senior management for staff and former staff to come for

francine joins us from london. ♪ we use our phones and computers the same way these days.to have a phone connected when we're already paying for internet? shouldn't it all just be one thing? that's why xfinity mobile comes with your internet. you can get 5 lines of talk and text included at no extra cost. so all you pay for is data. choose by the gig or unlimited. and now, get a $200 prepaid card when you buy an iphone. it's a new kind of network designed to save you money. call, visit, or go to xfnitymobile.com. ♪ >> let's get to bloomberg business flash. some rare job cuts at amazon. the company is a limiting hundreds of jobs in seattle focused on selling products online. foron is hiring businesses cloud computing and its alexa platform. as 80's bands has decided to sit out next year's auto show. continually reviews the platforms it chooses to reach customers. bloomberg reported mercedes -- car companies do major reveals that the rhone showcases. food alliance has made an approach to buy american bourbon. -- america source bergen. there may not be a deal. that is your bl

from london, sean o'neill is with us. the chief reporter at "the times" newspaper in london, which broke the story of oxfam and save the children scandals. in miami, florida, we are joined by edwidge danticat, haitian-american novelist. author of a number of books, including "the farming of bones," which won an american book award. danticat's new book is "the art of death: writing the final story." she just returned from haiti. and here we have taina bien aime, executive director of cocoalition agagainst traffickin women. we welcome you all to democracy now! let's go to london where this story was exposed by sean o'neill and the team at "the times of london." can you talk about the chronology of what you found out -- of what you found out and when he founded out? >> this story took quite a long time to piece together. i had been working on it for proximally 10 months -- a approximately 10 months. totook quite a long time pursue that person to give me more detail. in october last year, we ran a story about the treatment of

joining us from london is sean o'neill, chief reporter at "the times" newspaper in london, which brokehe story of the story of oxfam and save the children. edwidgeso joined by danticat, haitian-american novelist and taina bien aime, executive director of coalition against trafficking in women. edwidge danticat, if you can storyd to this explosive that has come out that you may have known some details of were rumors of stories for years, i don't know. >> i wish i could say that it was shocking. i think there is a way these large organizations work in haiti in which they bypass the state completely or consider the state insignificant. it was even said by the folks at oxfam that they did report these violations because they thought the state was too consumed with the earthquake. else forre was nothing us to do. in the u.n., the staff has been accused of similar things. women have said they are literally grabbed off the street and raped them a boys and girls. amy: explain what you mean by -- >> the minister is the u.n. "peacekeeping force" that has been in haiti the last decade. they were

sri jegarajah joins us from london good morning >> it's interesting, nancy talked about the extent of declines in asia which were admittedly sharp but interestingly enough we're not seeing the same kind of quantum of losses in european markets. yes, they're down but the damage report is not initially as bad as expected. the scope of the losses is not that pronounced. the dax and ftse down by roughly 40 points. this does point to resilience in the earnings numbers and underlying economic back drop as well back here in europe we have been seeing something of a renaissance in european equities i will say that it's probably getting some help sentiment-wise from the fact that u.s. futures, your side of the world are pointing higher, are suggesting a rebound. it's still relatively early days in terms of the session. we're about midway through the morning session. this picture could very well change given the fact that intrasession volatility is back and back with a vengeance. but so far so good a degree of composure in some of these european markets as we head over to the weekend let's see

she joins us from london. an associate professor at aoas university of london. good to have you with us. let's start with rick gates agreeing to plead guilty to fraud and cooperating with the mueller russia probe. what could this mean for paul manafort? but ultimately, what could it mean for president trump? >> well, thing is what we're all watching. mueller is a very savvy and highly experienced person when it comes to this kind of thing. and he is clearly pursuing a strategy of getting vuds indiv cooperate with him. now at the moment it seems like this primarily focused on manafort, on what gates can tell us about manafort. but it might leave manafort to reveal more information. but there are at the moment a lot of unknowns. what is very clear is mueller has been tremendously effective on a number of accounts. and to the extent that he can get people like rick gates to cooperate with him, it's very significant. remember, the gates was part of the campaign in the summer of 2016 during that very significant meeting that has been talked about a lot in trump towers

alternative vision to mainstream economics and she's joining us live from london it's very good to have you with us on al-jazeera so as we mentioned this report talks about austerity as a human rights issue because it says it affects people's access to things like you know everything from education health care housing social security economic social riots what's been the cost of austerity. well the cost has been you know as you've just said to the lack of access to basic rights for health and education and so on and this is a case not just in europe but across the world actually but i mean although i admire. amnesty international for putting a stereotype front and center the report is quite thin on the economic aspects of it the fact of the matter is that what has happened is that we have found that self regulating markets have moved from the national context to the international context beyond if you like the regulation of governments and so we have globalization and that has been responsible for writing levels of inequality rising levels of unemployment or in secure employment and abo

cnn chief international correspondent christiane amanpour is live for us from london. and unicef, the children's charity, the u.n. children's charity, actually releasing a statement with no words on this piece of paper. it has literally no words for the destruction happening to civilians there. >> reporter: which speaks in itself a thousand words. i've never seen that before. just to say that we simply have nothing more to say and nothing more to appeal to the world. if they can't understand and see the pictures of this suffering, what else are we to do? i mean, the u.n. has come under criticism, and they keep saying, look, we're unarmed diplomats. we are begging the syrian regime. we're talking to every one of the outside powers that is involved in a proxy war, whether it's iran, the government of russia, the government of certainly the united states, and all the others who have activities in syria to stop the bombardments there in the domestic as cuss -- domestic as cuss suburb. and we've been reporting this the last 24 to 48 hours that they use a strong term. it's l

had just taken off from moscow on route to the city of orsk when it crashed about 25 miles outside of moscow in what appears to be a fairly remote area. joining us now live from londonh. what more can you tell us about this crash and what may have caused it? >> it's too early to tell what may have caused the crash. they're looking into weather conditions, human error, technical failure. they have not mentioned terrorism as a possible cause. emergency teams, though, have been combing the snowy fields at the crash site. we know more than 700 people are involved in that search, both on foot and with the aid of drones. the plane's flight data recorder was found, so that should offer insight into why it went down just minutes after taking off killing all 71 people on board. we also know that the search for victims is expected to take a week. dna tests are being organized with relatives to try to identify the remains and the emergency situations ministry in russia posted the names of passengers and crew online sunday afternoon showing that at least three children were tragically on board. now, the plane itself was a russian-made antonov aircraft. it only started flying ba

he's with us from london welcome to "the halftime report." nice to have you here today. >> nice to be here. >> what's your argument? >> so i think there are a couple of factors if we think about this year, and i think when the best environment for returns is going to be, i think it is in the first quarter and through april when global growth is going to look the best, when inflation is going to look the most stable, when real rates are still within the range that they have been in over the last five years and i think as you move out of that period, we're going to face an environment of rising inflation, we're going to face some, i think, normalization and mean reversion in indicators like pmis and economic surprises. and i think that will present a tougher and trickier market after as we move into the back half of the year. >> do you agree with your u.s. colleague, mike wilson, who is looking for at least, if not several 10% corrections in the mid to latter part of the year >> i think that makes a lot of sense, to be honest. i think that is a

ireland drive to begin must still a lot of undeserved issues thank you very much for joining us from london for your perspective on the draft treaty for briggs it. you're watching the news coming up ahead the silent revolution hits job in cinemas this week it's a film set in the mid fifty's in germany and tells the story of a. class on this silent protest that led to unexpected consequences robin miller from our culture desperate join me for more on that. and of the do you know of his good deed every news on the go just download a after moving clip all from the apple store to give you access to all the latest news from around the wild as well as push notifications for any breaking news you can also use a d.w.i. after send us photos and videos which you think might be off interest to us. of course you can also follow us on twitter and on facebook in a round the clock i don't website that c w dot com real small coming up you're watching deja vu news live from berlin and i see you again shortly. this morning. in the control of trump. trip by employing seventeen don't come on the jobs in six we

commodities and currencies are going to have to adjust well joining us now from london is david madden a market analyst at c.m.c. markets good to have you with us david so the general consensus this week has been the stock price is a been high maybe too high for months if not years and that. a big drop was seen as a somewhat likely if not inevitable is that how you see it. that's exactly how i see it for too long investors were sleepwalking into the into the raging bull market that was going on underneath them and investors and traders forgot the financial markets can fall as well i was right and there was so much positive downturn there was so much positive economic indicators and there's so much enthusiasm surrounding global stock markets particularly those in the united states such as that of the dow jones and the s. and p. five hundred investors quite frankly got complacent there the ignore the fact that volatility was at multi-year loans and they assumed that the stock market's weak we'd keep reaching fresh record highs or a multi-year highs here in europe or in asia and then we d

labour's lord adonis was responsible for the introduction of tuition fees in 1998 and joins us from our london now? i think the decision to introduce a part payment by stu d e nts decision to introduce a part payment by students for university education was the correct one, it allowed us to expand places significantly so it was socially equitable and it allowed us to give a better deal to universities where staff were being grossly underpaid. the big problem was the decision in 2010 with the conservative and liberal democrat coalition two travel tuition fees overnight, they were £3000 before, there wasn't great controversy about that and they broke the cross—party consensus overnight by trebling the fees —— to treble. they lost the support of students, they were broadly happy with the deal before 2010 because it was a good deal, after 2010 when the fees went up to £9,000... £9,000 is more than the cost of a lot of the courses offered by universities and at that point it was unsustainable. to make it worse what they then also did was slap a 6.1% real rate of interest on the student debt. before

fighter jet which crashed near syria al-jazeera senior political analyst mark one bashar joins us from london good to have you with us on this you know it seems every hour new details are coming out on this do you see this going further or is this the end or as far as it will escalate. well you know if you hear the official statements there's there seems to be interest in the restraining you know the various forces of escalation or the dynamics of escalation certainly we've seen press reports about israel asking the united states and russia to intervene to ensure that no further escalation because in a so far as israel is concerned its last retaliation against every mian syrian. targets the twelve of them within syria is enough to respond to the downfall of its fighter jet but of course you know if there's one thing to take away for the last few days few weeks few months yes few years from the crisis in syria from the back of syria is that everyone lies so everyone about this particular crisis over the last several hours of light this really is of lied about why they've done what they've done

border between northern ireland and the rest of the united kingdom one that involves live for us from london now not him so how much of a surprise were michel barnier revelations about the briggs's legal text well according to himself they should come as no surprise he says that everything that he outlined in a press conference just a couple of hours ago was agreed by the european union and by the u.k. last december he says that there is a joint commitment by either side above all to avoid a hard border between the between northern ireland and the republic of ireland because many people see that as something that would entailed border checks which some people think could put this good friday agreement the agreement back in the ninety's which are ended years of sectarian violence and brought in power sharing many people think that that could be put in danger if you did have customs you know checks and offices perhaps on perhaps not he did say also that he wanted to see much more progress on the issue of citizens' rights and he said that because the u.k. government still wasn't making it clear

too has been accused of corruption and outside influence in government decisions well joining us now from london is john ash born africa economist at capital economics thanks for being with us so when you strip away all the politics what's the biggest economic challenge facing south africa right now. well there are a lot of them but the problem that the budget was trying to deal with is the lord's fiscal deficit so in the last budget pronouncement we had which was not tobar the finance minister admitted that the deficit was much larger than people had assumed and it was going to stay quit large over the coming years and this budget was an attempt to roll that back and to create and intention at least to narrowing that deficit by sort of twenty twenty twenty one and income inequality is something that's been much talked about around the world. and it's just a bigger problem in south africa right now you have very well developed cities and hinterlands around them that are not so well developed have what what's the government's doing to address that should they be doing more to address that income

from berenberg . thank you for joining us in our london studio. we are going to travel from abu dhabi to london.line hyde. she is queen of tech. we speak to the telenor ceo. this is bloomberg. ♪ manus: welcome back to "bloomberg daybreak: europe." we are in abu dhabi, london. now we get to barcelona. caroline hyde is back in action. caroline, day to. manusne: it is indeed, great to be with you again. great to be with the ceo of telenor. it is sigve brekke. good numbers out. 2 million subscribers added. i am interested in the competitive nature we are starting to see in home markets, particularly denmark. the company is unsustainable. what is the arch there? is it celebration question mark -- is it consolidation? get approval in the european authority. we said that eastern markets are more stable. makewe try to do is try to [indiscernible] i am happy to see the development. on term, this market needs to be consolidated. caroline: are you talking to the regulators about that? sigve: we are not doing that right now. sure. focusing and making i am very proud of the way we have been to do that. carol

just under £130 million. under £130 million. boss of trinity mirror and joins us from london. from london. efficient and cover much more breadth of coverage. breadth of coverage. readers and advertisers and shareholders and pension funds. shareholders and pension funds. not good for the people who work the company. absolutely. employed by a financially stronger organisation. will there be job cuts? cuts? to remove duplication, mainly in back—office functions. back—office functions. inevitably, there is duplication is there will be changes. there will be changes. will be talking to those teams in due course. due course. broadly, this is very good for all concerned. good for all concerned. efficiencies across local newspapers. newspapers. this transaction, we operate around 100 regional papers. operate around 100 regional papers. manchester news, through to the plymouth herald. plymouth herald. trinity mirror as a group makes over £120 million. group makes over £120 million. great regional titles, in print and digitally. digitally. will you be closing any local titles? will you be closing a

other professionals to build relationships with young people at risk from sex gangs and drug dealers. joining us now from our londonyouth gang worker, junior smart. thank you very much for talking to us. county lines, a phrase some people might be familiar with, a growing problem with police and other authorities around the country. that is right. seriously, we are talking about thousands of young people being criminally exploited, a very serious issue, it is hidden, and it is more national than people care to realise. if you just look at the uk, we have got around 450 county lines operations, each involving children around the age of about 11 plus, a very serious issue. it requires organisations to be working together in partnership, but more importantly, it is about engaging with young people and the work we have been doing is using credible people with first—hand trained experienced and it involves prevention as well, going into schools and colleges and pupil referral units and helping the young people demystify the reality of what they might be getting involved in before they get into being criminally exploited

please stay with us from london, from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ francine: good morning, everyone francine in london, tom new york. the world bank says it is relatively optimistic about colombia's economic growth. the country has a stable outlook for 2018 with a presidential election in may and 8.6% unemployment. there are political and economic hurdles in the coming months. we're joined from our new york offices with the colombian finance minister, mauricio cÁrdenas. minister cardin is, thank you so much for joining us and for giving us a little bit of your time. are you worried that some of the several candidates can put their names forward for the upcoming election in may are offering large tax cuts? that would be problems for the rating agencies. mr. cÁrdenas: we have elections. different cabinets propose different platforms, but there's one thing that characterizes the colombia, that is the stability and economic spirit this has been the position for many years, even decades. so i think that colombia's will make a wise decision -- colombians will make a wise decision, and thi

us. from london and new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ francine: this is "bloomberg surveillance." m london and new york. let's talk aboutity leave. we're months away from the general election in italy, and it seems that the berlusconi factor may be stronger than what polls predicted. what does this mean? the so-called shy factor, which underestimates voting intentions for right-wing parties and a new law that favors coalitions, may give berlusconi's bloc a new seat to form a government. that's from one of the leaders tied to the pollster. the current projections show the former prime minister is only two percentage points away from a majority. still with us, john norman of j.p. morgan. i guess when you look at political factions, there seems to be a blanket of certainty in europe that we're not going to get, an election in italy, which will be disruptive for the markets. do you agree? john: i do agree, because it looks like none of the polls are trending to an anti-e.u. party leading an ex-government. i think if you're looking at geopolitical risk from a systemic perspective, that'

the report's author, professor ann mcneill, joins us from london, and with us here is gp, dr fari ahmad have been issues about long—term health effects with vaping, but compared to smoking, it's better. don't stop there! let's pick up on that. you say that e—cigarettes should be prescribed on the nhs, why do you say that? good morning. can i correct one thing, 200 smokers die every day, not every year. smoking is uniquely dangerous, and what our review showed is that e—cigarettes are significantly less harmful than smoking tobacco cigarettes, so it's really important for smokers who are trying to quit that they do so as soon as is. we have a wide variety of treatments available, the widest ever, including e—cigarettes. as well as being able to get them in shops, we think it would be useful if health professionals could prescribe e—cigarettes as well. we know now that e—cigarettes is the most common form of support smokers use, and we want to make sure we reach all smokers, particularly poorer smokers, who perhaps feel relu cta nt. poorer smokers, who perhaps feel reluctant. people have