valerie tytel, thank you indeed. on that trump story around the fed, you see interest rates down around two and three basis points across the curve right now. we have a great line above guests from the world economic forum in davos. it is the final day today. this one will be interesting. the ceo of suntory. it is a major drinks maker headquartered in japan. so, a response to what we have heard from the boj, the inflation story as well as broader global demand for drinks products. and we will hear from the ceo of germany's mark. we have a sluggish economy. stick with us. this is bloomberg. ♪ tom: welcome back. the bank of japan has raised its policy rate to 0.5%. that's the highest level in 17 years, in an effort to combat inflation, it follows a report showing consumer prices rising at a faster pace of 3% above the central banks inflation target. let's head to the world economy forum in davos where joumanna bercetche is standing by with a as to can certainly comment on the inflation story in japan and the broader ap

valerie tytel, thank you. ubs's president and head of global wealth management says it will be key for clients to diversify investments amid political tension and economic instability. he spoke to us exclusively at the ubs greater china conference. >> we have started to see a commitment of china towards the economy and we have started to see that economic policy come to bear. everybody is waiting for march. we will see what the next steps around the more proactive fiscal stance will be in china. that will be as relevant as what the u.s. does. >> him speaking to the team on the ground at the ubs china conference. checking some lines crossing in the last minute or so from the ecb saying inflation pressures will continue to ease this year. they are saying we do not want rates to remain high for too long. we need to ensure interest rates follow a middle path so some lines crossing from the ecb currently at 102 euro-dollar and checking in terms of traders pricing around the ecb through this year. expectations you a

. >> let's get more with valerie tytel. we had the jobs data on friday. what is the uniformity around the message from fed officials and to what extent have they coalesced around the idea that there needs to be more time to bring inflation back to target? >> there's been a regime shift in fed speak lately. they were worried about the weakness in the jobs market and now seem to be more focused on the upside risk to inflation. she also went on to say they need to make sure the recent bump in inflation is not persistent. we heard mary daly saying inflation is uncomfortably above target. tom barkan saying there's more upside than downside risk to inflation and what may be behind these words is the fact that from's political and economic agenda might boost growth and cause more upside risk to inflation. we had the ism manufacturing friday they came in strong and boosted treasury yields. overnight these yields continue to move higher. the u.s. 10-year yield at .46 2, 8 basis points shy of the 2024 hi but if we focus on the 30 year yield, which is driven more by

let's bring in bloomberg's valerie tytel, is this a seasonal story, what's driving this corporate debtise that we get a flurry of corporate debt issuance to start the year. january is normally a busy month for those putting the bond issuance is together as corporate try to raise cash for their needs for the year. what is surprising is that the corporate bond spreads are at historic tights. there's not a lot the investor gets from buying corporate bonds but they still have appetites. was driving that is the fact that the risk of defaults has dropped recently. if you think about where we were last year, we were talking about the u.s. having an economic slowdown, perhaps at becoming a global problem and you see global defaults rising. we are not worried about these defaults. even though the yield pickup versus government debt to buy corporate debt is at historic tights, investors are still seeing some sort of return or juice and that for them. tom: what about those sovereign debt market with a flurry of governments issuing debt in the u.k., 30 are gilts being issued, how has that been abs

let's bring in valerie tytel to dive into the latest market reaction to trump's day one executive orders. i talked about the markets being whiplash in the dollar was the channel through which that came through. valerie: it was a huge pain trade for those dollar longs yesterday, but we are glad to see that the dollar is paring some of those losses in the overnight sessions with losses in the mexican peso and canadian dollar after that late-night terror threat trump gave the markets. yesterday, we know that those lawns, that speculative position -- those longs, that speculative positioning, dropped steeply on reports that we would not get any hard and fast tariff announcements out of the gate. we had a relief rally overnight in the dollar and also when it comes to the treasury market, this lack of any concrete announcements on tariffs. it's given some room from the tariff -- for the treasury market to recover. tom: currently yields down and tariffs up. the dollar is surging up .4%. valerie tytel on the market reaction when it comes to the dollar and treasuries. let's get the asian market r

let's bring in valerie tytel. what is the latest in terms of how markets are reacting? valerie: i had to squint to see reaction when it comes to china. maybe perhaps showing us that the 10% tariff on china is already on the price. all those announcements we heard from trump late last night are doing very little to dent risk appetite after the s&p closed up nearly 1% yesterday. we are still on firm footing when it comes to risk. s&p futures up three tons of 1%. one thing i found interesting is the announcement from the sec yesterday when it comes to the cryptocurrency industry. the sec was looking to launch a cryptocurrency task force to perhaps create a clear regulatory environment when it comes to the cryptocurrency industry. it's interesting to note that since gary gensler has stopped -- stepped down, there's been a huge wall off of filings for crypto linked etf's. a lot of interesting things happening in the crypto market. getting excited for a booster -- looser regulatory environment under donald trump. tom: bitcoin not back to those 108 levels but still gaining from

valerie tytel was talking us through that dollar strength for us. u.s.ss claims falling to an eight-month low. on the flipside, eurodollar weakness. we are at a 1.02 handle currently. we remain on parity watch as we monitor the fears about trump tariffs on europe, fears about another energy crisis, worries about political uncertainty in france and germany both of which we shall dig into in a moment. gold at $75 a barrel as is gold. and bitcoin trading down today, 96,000 dollars is where we are, that is the first step in four days. flipping over to asia, it was a historically dismal start to the year yesterday but asian equities seem to be back on the front foot this morning. china stocks trading in a tight range after that 3% tumble yesterday. the gun steady at 157 per dollar but we should note japan still closed for that holiday, that's why we have no cash trading in treasuries until the top of the. hour let's dive into the energy story, european gas prices rising yesterday after a transit deal for the russian pipeline flow through ukraine expired at th

let's dive deeper into the action with valerie tytel. a reminder of the whipsaw effect of speculation around from's policies. >> what a whipsaw we had especially in the fx market around these headlines. the original reaction to that washington post article saw the dollar really erase a lot of its gains and against that the euro a big leg stronger versus the dollar on those original headlines, moved over a percent which i think showed there were a lot of euro shorts they got squeezed. we had reports of traders talking about the surgeon option volumes. a lot of them seem to be getting stopped out over these headlines yesterday but it was not just the tariff headlines we had to deal with but also some headlines about resignations when it comes to the fed. we can talk about the reaction to bank stocks. we had news from the fed that michael barr is stepping down for vice chair of supervision. that's bank stocks rally. michael barr is known as being tough on capital rules and his resignation maybe opens the door for looser regulations going fo

that is the affectation pay let's bring in valerie tytel on the key components worth scrutinizing on the report. >> it will be on that core month on month cpi print. expected to hit 0.3 for a fifth month in a rope. if we look at what is priced into the options market, market attention has squarely returned back to inflation. this is the biggest cpi print in nearly two years. the implied swaying in the s&p 500 for today's print is a plus or minus 1%, this is a high-stakes print both for what we can see happen in the treasury market. a hot print could tempt us to believe that the fed next move could be a rate hike and that bond move could continue. we saw 30-year yields touch 5% the second time this week. a hot cpi print could get the market to get thinking that 10-year yields are headed north of 5% as well. back to the core month on month cpi print. this will be the most important component of the print today. it has printed at 0.3 for the last four months running. that is important because a 0.3 month on month reading gets us farther from the fed's 2% target. that is why we don't wan

. >> let's bring in our market watcher, valerie tytel for an assessment of what we have been hearing from fed officials and a preview of nonfarm payrolls. let's start to what extent is his view. he still expects to be cutting this year. does that align with what we have been hearing from other officials. >> frankly no. we heard from michelle bowman yesterday and she called the cut the final step in the recalibration phase, leading many of us to believe she is perhaps on the dot plot reflecting no more rate cuts this year and also blamed inflation for the reason we are seeing this rise in treasury market yields and it was those concerns that backed up her argument why there should be no further cuts for the remainder of the year and importantly she mentioned she backed luther bank capital rules, important because she is touted to replace vice chair michael barr as the vice chair of supervision so she will be very much in charge of taking forward where those rules go and speaking of the regulatory musical chairs in washington, we have heard confirmation that the confirmation for treasu

lizzy: that's take the temperature in markets now with valerie tytel. just how jittery are these markets about these announcements to come? >> it is all about whether these dollar longs will be disappointed if we don't get new news on tariffs from day one of trump 2.0. interesting that the bloomberg dollar index is trading softer. after reports that trump may attack domestic issues first, rather than international trade and tariffs. if we check on how the dollar has fared since this trump trade last september, the dollar has risen over 8% since mid-september, since that trump trade first took the markets by steam. and with it has been a big boost in dollar long positioning. flip the board again and look at the speculator positioning, hedge fund positioning when it comes to those dollar longs. they have been climbing every week since the trump trade began. we are now extremely stretched in those dollar longs. the market nervousness is about if we don't get new news on tariffs today, are those longs set up for disappointment and could we see a slide to th

valerie tytel, thank you very much indeed, breaking down what will be heard from scott bessent.all street's six largest banks returned $100 billion to investors last year, the most since 2021. the blockbuster earnings next. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> bank of america's fourth-quarter profit has exceeded estimates boosted by high fees and strong net interest income and morgan stanley also seeing fourth-quarter profit more than doubling. what stood out to you, charlie, from these numbers? >> superlatives for wall street's biggest banks. jp morgan was the first bank in u.s. history to clock $50 billion in annual profits and goldman sachs equities trading desk at their best quarter on record and we heard citigroup will be buying back $20 billion in shares and that's an interesting trend we have been reporting on, which is that last year those large banks return $100 billion in buybacks and dividends and that speaks to something interesting we have seen in the banking sector throughout earnings season, which is this idea of confidence so in order to buy back shares and return dividends,

valerie tytel, thank you. turning to earnings news. tsmc's profit in the december quarter topped estimates with a 57% rise. the earnings call has just kicked off. annabelle droulers is tracking all of this for us. another strong picture in terms of the numbers coming through for tsmc. it seems a lot of that is driven by the ai demand. what stands out to you in terms of the numbers that we've had from this company? >> what's really standing out as we've got the earnings call that just kicked off and we are hearing about the expectations for the first quarter and they are strong which is great news. for anyone that's invested into this ai theme. talking about the numbers themselves. first quarter sales expected to be between 25 to $25.8 billion. the estimate had been for 24.4 3 billion. gross margin better than expected at 57 to 59%. the estimate had been for 56.9. to put it in context as well. tsmc's longer-term expectation around the gross margin is for it to be around 53%. by their own metrics, they are doing better than expected. it

bloomberg's valerie tytel with a finger on the pulse. what stands out in the session today when it comes to the way equity markets are shaping up for the week ahead? >> it is a interesting afternoon where we get the details of executive orders from donald trump that have been rumored. he mentioned last night in one of his pre-inauguration celebrations that he will be signing up to a hundred executive orders today. how many of those will be friendly to the cryptocurrency market? we have seen such a rise in bitcoin this morning reaching record highs just a few hours ago $109,000. it will be interesting for the trajectory for the u.s. dollar because if he does focus those orders on domestic policies, we know that there are a huge amount of dollar longs in this market all bold up on the fact that we will get tariff announcements. if focuses on domestic policies instead of international trade, maybe we get some downside shift on the dollar on disappointment out of the gates that we do not get anything hard and fast on tariffs. all eyes what t