tensions between that country and t westover nuclear pls and economic sanctions we begin with nazr, vali nasr, and david ignatius of the washington pt, a national security columnist and also best selling author of spy forms and jay solomon of the wall street journal. >> i think within the administration is a sense that, you know, we have got them where we want them to be. you make a good point that the regime feels it is threatened, that this is an existential threat to this regime and so it is going to fight back and, you know, i do hope the administration thought through carefully what it would do if suddenly you were in a much more serious crisis next week, a month from now, whenever. >> rose: we continue with ian bremmer of eurasia group and his listing of the top risks to peace and economic progress in 2012. >> fear is actually the single biggest risk in 2012. it is not that the big things are blowing up, the euro isn't going to blow up, the united states is actually doing better than people think, china is not going to have a hard landing yet all of the headline risk around politic

increasingly the message is, you can't be both. >> rose: jay -- yes, go ahead, vali. >> i was saying david has it it right in the sense that sanctions are working and biting but whether they will change iran's behavior is a different question, largely because you have a situation where the sanctions are now going to dermine, a new set of sanctions are going to undermine the stability of the regime and that actually encourages the iranian government to double down on the nuclear power there is a libya scenario here, if you are going to give up your nuclear power and also you are going to face popular unrest, the regime has no way of protecting itself against outside intervention and right now, there is no pathway before this regime in terms of how they would climb down from the tree, so in some ways, you know, the sanctions are being over successful, they are putting so much pressure on the iranian government it is actually taking away the incentive to participate in the -- to give up thr nuclear program. >> rose: david, go ahead, yes, please. go ahead. >> part of it too is like the q

i want to somewhat take issue with something vali said or make another point.s are belligerent whatever the stance of the united states. the obama administration came in to office very clearly seeking an open hand outreach toward the iranians. now you might quibble that it wasn't done in an appropriate style or it lacked a certain kind of nuance. but the general thrust of the obama president's approach was to congratulate the islamic republic on their new year to negotiate face to face. and the response from the get go, from the iranians was belligerent. not just at the level of negotiations, but taking those american hikers hostage, taking that american journalist hostage and putting her through a kind of kangaroo court. so we shouldn't sort of imagine that iranian behavior today is purely dictate by what has transpired in the last two or three months. >> henry, you think the obama administration has been too tough in a sense, right? >> yeah, i don't think they were ever tough about engagement. the obama administration didn't really understand what it would ta

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we explore that with vali nasr, a professor at tufts university's fletcher school. until last year, he was a senior advisor at the state department. and dennis ross, who served in the national security council and state department in four administrations. most recently he advised president obama and secretary of state clinton on iran and the middle east. welcome to you both. professor nasr, beginning with you. so the basic question: do you think the u.s. and iran are sliding toward some sort of military conflict? >> i think we are in a place where we haven't been with iran before. we are in a situation that the two countries have no relations with one another, there's no hotline between them. there is a great deal of pressure on iran and the iranians for the first time have begun to react to this pressure by threatening either closing straits of hormuz, putting economic pressure on the west or as they did in response to the killing of a scientist in iran that they may retaliate outside of the middle east and in this kind of a situation you may end up in war not beca

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