despite this professional valuation and mr. trump knowing full well the legal restrictions units were valued, he value them collectively on his statements at $49 million. that is about 65 times the appraised valuations. mr. trump also ignored restrictions at mar-a-lago. it was valued on the research and that it set on unrestricted property. mr. trump new mar-a-lago was subject to a restricted -- onerous restrictions and limitations. mr. trump himself found sharp restrictions and donated his residence rights and effort in effort to -- the deed required mr. trump to donate 23% of mar-a-lago's value to the historic trust for preservation if he ever sold it. despite the significant reservations -- restrictions mr. trump by the property based on the premise that it was an unrestricted 18 acre plot of land that could be sold and used as a private home. in fact, the valuations represent that these restrictions do not even exist. the club generated annual revenues of less than $25 million and should have been valued at more than $75 mi

valuations, being much more reasonable as you say. is that basically the case, in ten seconds? >> yes high increment at markets, people still have job i think they're going to grow very well. >> all right jeremy, we appreciate it thank you very much. >> thank you. >>> that does it for "overtime." "fast money" begins right now. >>> right now on "fast," count jo unto cpi. we'll break down what happens if the number is too hot, too cold or just right. plus car vana raises higher. the analyst believes the stock could double, but hole on. one of the our traders is saying the market is telling a very different story. >>> disney makes peace with a big-time activist investor i'm melissa lee. tim seymour, courtney garcia, guy adami and -- economists expecting a shatter slowdown in inflation as energy prices continue to dumb down. prices overall expected to decline, but take a lookic at this shares of apple surging nearly 4% today now, think about this. ahead of a key piece of data, the biggest company in the united states, a company deeply impacted by supply chain snarls, it makes a mov

despite this professional valuation and mr.mp knowing full well the legal restrictions, the 12 rent stabilized -- he valued them at $49 million. that's about 65 times the appraised valuation. mr. trump also blatantly ignored legal restrictions at mar-a-lago. mar-a-lago was valued on the false premise that it sat on unrestricted property and could be developed for residential use. however, mr. trump knew that mar-a-lago was subject to a host of onerous restrictions and limitations. mr. trump himself signed deeds sharply restricting changes to the property and donating his residential development rights in an effort to get a tax deduction and later to lower his property taxes on the property. the deeds also require mr. trump to donate over 23% of mar-a-lago's value to the historic trust for historic preservation if he ever sold it. despite these restrictions, mr. trump valud it based on the fact it was an 18 acre plot of land that could be sold and used as a private home. the valuations represent that these restrictions don't eve

seen valuations kim down meta, adobe, paypal, looking value-ish. what do you like here? >> look back at the long history of sectors try to be agnostic. i don't try to get excited about utilities, tech, whatever it may be and tech one period. got to almost a third of the s&p 500. other periods it's low same for energy. on and on. over the past few years tech was the darling. interesting's three shareholders etfs, value-style funds. the u.s. has very low tech weighting. emerging markets high tech weighting. surprising to me and areas of values, energy, industrials, materials but emerging markets beaten down, and tech is, you know, a big part of the portfolio. within the u.s. it's not there yet, but we continue this move down i would be really surprised if we didn't start adding to this in the coming months. >> definitely know when we're having you back. when mercury assets progress, i guess. >> all right, guys, thanks october 2 end >> put it on the calendar. >>> check out communications services dom chu joins us with a breakdown of key names to keep an eye on. following th

despite this professional valuation, and mr. trump knowing full well the legal restrictions the 12 rent stabilized units were valued, he valued them collectively on his statements at $49 million. that is about 65 times the appraised valuation. mr. trump also blatantly ignored legal restrictions at mar-a-lago. mar-a-lago was valued on the false premise that it sat on unrestricted property and could be developed for residential use. however, mr. trump knew that mar-a-lago was subject to a host of onerous restrictions and limitations. mr. trump himself signed deeds sharply restricting changes to the property and donating his residential development rights in an effort to get a tax deduction and later to lower his property taxes on the property. the deeds also require mr. trump to donate over 23% of mar-a-lago's value to the historic trust for historic preservation if he ever sold it. despite these significant restrictions, mr. trump valued the property based on the false premise that it was an up restricted residential 18-acre plot

the 500 million dollar plus valuation was attributed.just over 200 million dollars. another deceptive strategy they employed was to use objective lee false numbers to calculate property values. take mister trump stripe, licks. you know, the triplex apartment in trump tower on 5th avenue. mister trump represented that his department spanned more than 30,000 square feet. which was the basis for valuing the apartment. in reality. the apartment had a barrier of less than 11,000 square feet, something that mister trump was well aware of. and based on that inflated square feet footage, the value of the apartment in 2015 in 2016 was 327 million dollars. to this date. no apartment in new york city has ever sold for close to that amount. tripling the size of the apartment for purposes of the valuation was intentional and deliberate fraud. not an honest mistake. mister trump was intimately familiar with the layout of both the building. and the apartment having personally overseen the construction. of both. despite his sworn testimony before invoki

we have seen valuations plummet for growth sentiment stocks. the tech sentiment has been battered all year as a function of bearishness to the market, but the question is, is there a reason? we have seen valuations of such factors over the last years skyrockets as a result of the year of easy monetary policy, but now that is going away. it makes sense that we are seeing these sectors steepening. moving forward, the question is, will they eventually bench once inflation is under control and once we get past that inflation point. it may be taking some time before that flows through the markets. tom: on the yield inversion story, yields are up 2% today. that is a divergence of 30 basis points and as we said the headlines, the biggest inversion this century. doesn't really matter -- does it really matter? kristine: we have had signals of yield curves and the various inversions we have seen tell us about a lot of it being structural. the market has seen a bit because of the central bank bond buying over the last decade, but the latest move has been

all of which goes to goose the numbers and inflate the valuations. that in turn helped the trump organization and the former president personally, she alleges, by inflating his net worth, giving him better interest rates, giving him better tax breaks. it's all part of a scheme that she says is expansive and covered the breadth of the trump organization. >> counselor, back to you, shan wu. just help viewers understand. we often focus on criminal trials and we know there are federal grand juries looking into january 6th, a federal investigation of the classified documents taken to mar-a-lago. but in terms of when you go after a business, take the trump name out of it, in a civil filing, essentially alleging bank fraud, insurance fraud, tax fraud, cheating, lying, stealing, how does this play out? >> well, when you're going after a business this way, you're really going after the root of how they make money and that's what this is geared towards. trying to take apart how they made money and stop them from making it the wrong way. as dana alluded to, it'

valuation still not where it needs to be. getting a lot closer which is a good thing.painful as it is, it is a necessary evil >> coming up, kathy's car call, the ark invest doubling down on her favorite ev stock. where she sees the space heading next and the lxdef, hitting a low how their playing it straight ahead. "fast money" is back after this. personalized financial advice from ameriprise can do more than help you reach your goals. i can make this work. it can help you reach them with confidence. no wonder more than 9 out of 10 of our clients are likely to recommend us. ameriprise financial. advice worth talking about. >>> welcome back to "fast money. check out the lxd, the corporate bond etf hitting a fresh 52-week low. this is a worrisome sign for the health of the credit market. they were one of the most active names in the options market. mike khouw has the action on this >> it was the fourth busiest etf actually, only following spy and iwm. it traded 34 times it is average daily put volume and the average contract were the october 30 puts -- 90 puts excuse me.

that doesn't justify valuations that get too high at times >> well, the valuation premium, you're happy to pay that because you -- of everything that you just identified fundamentally about the company. so i'm going to look at that valuation. yeah, it's a little bit rich, but i'm willing to accept that premium because of what it's giving me back in terms of fundamentals i think what stephanie stated, the one point that really for me is a positive catalyst is i think, stephanie, the demand is going to be there. i think consumers will show -- i think consumers will show up for these products and now it just comes down to, can apple deliver on the inventory will the inventory be there? i think without question given the resiliency we've seen recently from consumers and affluent consumers right, they're buying their lululemon pants, buying their lululemon gear, and they're going to go out and continue to buy products like what apple is going to deliver. so that demand so me is going to be there. >> i think they will be fine on inventory which is why i mentioned the lead times they're going

despite this professional valuation and mr. trump knowing full well the legal restrictions the 12 rent stabilized units were valued, he valued them collectively on his statement at $49 million. that is about 65 times the appraised valuation. mr. trump also blatantly ignored legal restrictions at mar-a-lago mar-a-lago was valued on the false premise that it sat on unrestricted property and could develop for residential use. however, mr. trump knew that mar-a-lago was subject to a host of onerous restrictions and limitations. mr. trump himself signed deeds sharply restricting changes to the property and donating his residential development rights in an effort to get a tax deduction and later to lower his property taxes on the property the deeds also require mr. trump to donate over 23% of mar-a-lago's value to the historic trust for historic preservation if he ever sold it. despite these significant restrictions, mr. trump valued the property based on the false premise that it was an unrestricted residential 18-acre plot of land

valuations are down a lot. stocks, from the peak in november, are down 65% and, the software group. the valuation for the highest group are down from 35 times next year's revenue to eight. the broader groups have improved. the valuations are down a lot. whether we think that is the bottom is something that we need to think about. i think that you need to get through the third quarter earnings reports , you go through an economic slowdown, the customers are more cautious with the spending. companies, for some are trying to to the own spending. i think that we need to reset the expectations for 2023. every company is becoming a digital enterprise. you know, the buyers of the software, it needs to be something that you would sell to i.t. another point, you know, when the window does open backup you are going to see a lot of companies going public. the valuations will be more reasonable. we saw this in the last cycle, we had zero interest rates and free money. the pipe laying-- the pipeline is extremely robust. i t

we've seen 0% interest rate for the past decade and that made these valuations. he admitted that but think there is a difference between this time it back then and back then in 2000 because at least, they were not making any deals, what were they valued at? some of these companies are not making profits per se but there are real sales on the balance sheet, valuations have gotten ahead of themselves, possibly. neil: there's a possibility to enroll in new technologies, seems unthinkable you would be reading newspapers. it is standard. susan: what is dialup? neil: there has been a lot of bloodletting since. >> there's going to be more difficult for these high-tech companies to get off the ground, to get developed and how you could book reading or e tablet or whatever you call it but that's established technology. what we are looking at now our new technologies that we don't even think of yet. we can't conceive of. neil: you could make that argument after the bust but eventually it starts rising. >> no stopping technology and we are more demanding of technology. we a

they knocked down there valuation publicly. think it is similar to have a media company like alibaba or facebook would still like to go public. >> how long do you think the ipo window is going to be? what is the timeframe that a company should be plenty for? >> i keep pushing it out more and more. i think what is happening now is what happens during the start of covid but it is just being stressed over a longer time. ipos were pretty much at zero. we are seeing almost a stretching out of that. now you see basically a game of chicken between investors and ipos and companies that are ready to go public. if you are a company that is profitable. you can wait as long as you need to. i think we will see some more m&a activity. strategic investors and also private equity investors, some decent opportunities for a deal get done with a bit more structure but less public scrutiny. i think we expect that to pick up in absence of an ipo market that is active. >> i wonder how many more valuation cut downs we will see. i imagine you have a l

with unicorn status, one billion-dollar valuations, what is the risk we see those valuations come downhere is a major repricing of startups of a certain size? guest: this happens a dental every cycle -- in every cycle, it will be impacted by the equity market. that is where people thought liquidity would be. we also see, going back to the adobe deal, $20 million in size, it could drive for investors along the way. tech is always needed, we are about to see one major revolution of decentralization through web3 of tech applications that emerge in -- very good time. >> silicon valley's ceo's ceo. you found it and took public be a systems, give me the founder's perspective. how hard is it right now to be a fledgling startup or a founder with an idea to sit in front of an investor and chamoli with cash in public --pocket? -- cash -- and come away with cash in your pocket? >> raising money is not the same as it was last year, thank goodness the words revenue and cash flow matter again. the other thing is run rate, cost and expenses, we have seen a slew of layoffs, not because the company cou

and what is a company worth when valuations are moving around and move valuation to a china perspective, u.s. perspective, europe. so it gives companies something to think about but companies that do it well can front load a lot of questions by beefing up their m&a play books internally and the diligence around what's best for the customers, what moves are they going to make, because that regulation piece we've seen it block a lot of deals the last 12 months. >> ann, it's jon, good morning i think interesting in this market, unlike a decade ago we have a number of growing tech stocks with market caps under $5 billion, not exactly small cap but kind of. the complaint used to be public investors are missing out on growth, coming public when they're already mature now there's turbulence, people are saying stay away from unmic unprofitable tech. how do you look at the opportunities for the smaller stocks, some are going to be quite successful, that a number of others are scared of in this market >> technology companies have grown out of technology innovation and revenue growth. revenue grow

not a good quarter the stock sold off from 99 or so valuation you can't trade this on valuation never really adds up but 42.5, 43 level makes sense. >> guy talked about the rally of last year and massive moves and when names like this lack visibility and we really just don't know how it shakes out with the spending on fabs this stock as it overshot it is likely to do so to the downside also to me i don't find it nearly as interesting. i find that far more interesting because the brand and the valuation are defensible and rather play 23 times for nike than 7 times for micron down 50%. >> i look at semiconductors and we talk about this cyclicality of the space semis made new relative lows to the s&p today. this was leadership we followed for a long time and today that's concerning i don't think you chase it. >>> this is next - >> apple falling far from the tree the tech titan posting another day of steep losses. how are options traders dealing with the move? tesla's delivery numbers and next ai day on deck. also any news about that weird robot thing? you're watching "fast money" live fr

hey professor, subscriptions are down but that's only an estimated 15% of their valuation. is overreacting? how'd you know that? the company profile tool, in thinkorswim®. yes, i love you!! please ignore that. td ameritrade. award-winning customer service that has your back. >>> you probably know by now the ceos of major u.s. banks are testifying in washington, d.c. before the house financial services committee today our leslie picker joins us now with the highlights we might have missed over the last 35 minutes or so. any fireworks? >> no fireworks although the hearing reconvened after a brief recess lawmakers pressed on russia and whether they would stall doing business with china. the ceo deferred today the government for guidance in an event something like that occurred, noting it's hypethetic at this point in time. they were also asked if the banks were well capitalize said which they said they were as evidence by these stress tests earlier jamie diamond was asked about post-financial capital requirements and what that meant for lending. >> it's not just capital intern

the valuations still have further to go and the u.s. is still trading at a higher multiple then we have seen over the course of the long run and even over the last decade. there is still vulnerability on the valuations for we get a chart. tom: we have forecast warnings from ford and fedex. do we need to brace ourselves potentially for an earnings recession? peter: the risk is certainly on the downside in terms of earnings expectations that are still too high. not much because of revenue expectations but margins. if we aggregate what analysts are expecting from the u.s. and europe, it is still too high for next year. i do not expect to see a significant downturn during this next year. there are some reasons to be more positive, some balance sheets are quite healthy, and we still have reasonably solid revenues because nominal gdp is quite strong. that is not making a claim on nominal gdp revenues to grow with that but it is the margins story that is yet to weaken in a meaningful way. that will bring earnings down, but i do not think we wi

. >> valuations have come down a lot, though. >> yeah, but today's valuations tell me what the e is going to be in two or three months, it's going to be less >> they say valuations have improved a lot they should be pricing in near-term fundamental concerns >> i don't think so and what they also don't take into account if you go back where money was free people say you're going to see a massive switch from people ownings stocks to bonds if you just get over a 3%. here i've got a two-yeesh, the u.s. government two-year given me almost 4% why wouldn't i want to own that tax-free, state and local -- >> gunlocke yesterday had his web cast, two days, yesterday, i don't remember he said bond markets are most attractive in a decade and he sat with me down out in california long end -- he's buying the long end. he's extending duration which has been an unpopular trade. long dated treasuries. >> the beginning of the year from a lot of fixed income money managers that that's the right thing to do, and he's right. especially with the perspective that he has where he believes the federal reserve ulti

>> yes and i think the bigger issue we've seen, this is more of a valuation reset. valuations got a little extreme because there are a lot of investors chasing far few too nasdaq that are really platform or transitional ideas. there's many companies or transformational ideas there's many companies that say they are but there's very few that are really platform companies that are really in a pole position coming out of this to be very recession resistant so i think we're seeing a valuation reset to some extent we think it was overdone to the down side but we think they'll outperform significantly when we come out of this recessionary environment and interest rate environment. we all know that at some point this will reverse. we don't have a crystal ball when it will happen but when it does some of these companies are going to significantly outperform and that's where investors are going to want to be positioned. >> okay, great let's try to drill down on some of those names, give our investors here some idea that watching we don't have time to go through the whole lis

valuations to your point are in the eye of the beholder. i do remember you covered him for many, many years, donald trump was not like forbes richest people and often times said they got it too low i'm actually far richer than that. that has been out there. not necessarily a crime to you know, want to understate or overstate how rich you are. but the only difference here would be if this was all sort of cooked in the books for years. that is where she seems to be going. >> yeah. we should point out he sued a journalist who suggested he wasn't worth a billion dollars. tim o'brien, then of "the new york times." again, neil, you know, you got to look at those documents. deutsche bank was part of one of the lending facilities, there is others. i'm sure there are other banks but those documents clearly point out, unless i am missing something because i've read them, do your own due diligence. i'm paraphrasing here. these are our estimates. do your due diligence and banks presumably did due diligence why this stuff has been paid off. these loans

what makes you do in and buy >> it has to be valuation.you have some names like amazon and google and meta, you had challenging comps this year because they were beneficiaries of covid trends. the comps will get easier. revenue growth accelerates when you have normal growth acceleration and multiples told and go higher. i like amazon because it is trading 30% below the pre-covid multiple i have a set up where fundamentals will reflect up the question is the rate they will reflect up it should re-rate modestly. >> mark mahaney, thank you very much that doeitor uons fs "worldwide exchange. "squawk box" picks up coverage next we will see you tomorrow ♪♪ ♪♪ be ready for any market with a liquid etf. get in and out with dia. >>> good morning the fed ready to begin a two l -day meeting treasuries not seeing highs seen in a decade. >>> back to work with mixed reviews. new numbers on americans heading back to the office it's tuesday, september 20th summer is just about over. "squawk box" begins right now. >>> good morning welcome to "squawk box" h

what is the risk we see those valuations come down?e is a major repricing of startups of a certain size? alfred: this happens in every cycle. a late stage deal will be highly impacted by the equity market and where it is going because that is where people thought liquidity would be. we also see, going back to the adobe deal, $20 million in size, the ipo could possibly drive investors along the way. i am not concerned because tech is always needed and we are about to see one major revolution of decentralization through web3 of tech applications that will emerge in the next generation. a very good time indeed. ed: they call you the silicon valley's ceo's ceo. you were an early investor in ftx, solano, founded and took public bea systems. give me the founder's perspective. how hard is it right now to be a fledgling startup or a founder with an idea to sit in front of an investor and come away with cash in your pocket? alfred: raising money is not quite like last year. a founder has to be on their game to have a story about how they were a

many companies raised very, very high valuations.ey have plenty of runway to continue to grow their business and commiserate with the values they last raise. at the same time, they are mobile headwinds to a lot of businesses. uncertainty has caused a lot of fear in the market, and companies are cutting back on this, including software. ed: i know you to be the long-term optimist, you see opportunity, so what is the opportunity down the line? cathy: i'm still very long-term bullish. i fundamentally believe that current macro challenges can be a catalyst for increasing optimization at many companies enterprises. of course fires will continue to be very careful, because it's very important, but they will also be working for the next impressed greatest solution. you're looking for the best solution and i think it might trigger a software up buying cycle across many of the sectors that we cover. and i think it's also important to take a view that some of the best companies have started and were built and merged from economic downturn, com

our valuation still too high?heila: you are seeing in the latest rounds, founders are realizing they need to do larger deals, more capital. that is to be expected. we're seeing from citigroup, from our strategic partnerships, suggest you will see more m&a in areas like the back office. i think there is room for valuations to move, but there is room for incredible innovation to come in areas that see the most difficult -- crypto is a great example. there is an interesting future ahead after this latest downturn. emily: just how long is the downturn going to last? we have guests predicting millions of layoffs. does that jive with your thinking? sheila: it is entirely possible. i am probably more optimistic than that, because i see some positive trends in what is going on as well. for example, a recent survey suggests cfos and hro's in the financial and hr space are pulling back. a lot of what we focus on his core areas like enterprise. at the same time, they're going for more difficult circumstances. recessionary en

elizabeth ii >>> the wall street looks to follow suit as we eye a bummer week for central banks >>> valuation up to 75 billion euro for porsche and what it is said to be one of europe's largest ever operations. >>> eu is planning to withhold funding from hungary in the rule of law dispute which puts budget procedures at risk >> it is a risk for the budget at this stage remains and we cannot conclude the new budget is sufficiently protected. >>> state funeral for queen elizabeth ii will get under way in two hours time. the service will be attended by 2,000 guests dignitaries have begun to arrive at westminster abbey many world leaders will be attending including president biden and other dignitaridignit. let's get to steve sedgwick now. steve, tell us what is happening at westminster abbey and what we can expect in the hours ahead. >> reporter: let's start off the beginning today. after four full days of laying in state at westminster hall, a short distance away from where i'm standing, her majesty's lying in state came to end at 6:30 this morning with the final members of the public filing pa

— this, and normally if you had at the valuation of— this, and normally if you had at the valuation of fixed—rate currencies going back a _ days of fixed—rate currencies going back a long — days of fixed—rate currencies going back a long time. the chance of the exchequer— back a long time. the chance of the exchequer is — back a long time. the chance of the exchequer is the one who gets the chop, _ exchequer is the one who gets the chop, hut— exchequer is the one who gets the chop, but the mirror is concentrating on liz truss and really — concentrating on liz truss and really the _ concentrating on liz truss and really the question is where is the prime _ really the question is where is the prime minister is a very good question _ prime minister is a very good question. it's quite a leading question— question. it's quite a leading question to ask, but it's a legitimate question to ask because in times— legitimate question to ask because in times like this, you expect the prime _ in times like this, you expect the prime minister to be outside number ten getting some sort of explanation,

valuations may be attractive but china is one of the largest market. not that cheap relative to the u.s. you add the geopolitical risk and it should be cheaper interview. francine: thank you for joining us, sharmin mossavar-rahmani, cio, goldman sachs. we are also getting breaking news, significant because it is the third anniversary of black wednesday. tom: it is the first time since 1985. sharmin explaining the headwinds not underweight at this point in terms of u.k. equities but the drag from the pound, now 0.6%. all the other indicators around the energy crisis, cost-of-living crisis, and plans from the new government are weighing on the pound. francine: if you only have time to read one article, read this piece, saying that margaret thatcher said you cannot buck the markets, but with global imbalances entrenched, it should be faced with a stiff upper lip. coming up, european startups are flocking to venture capital. this is bloomberg. ♪ tom: welcome back to the open, 46 minutes into the european trading day, losses of 1% across the benchmark. more

. >> right, but valuations, an aggregate right here, you think are still rich, reasonable, overdone on the downside >> i think they're not -- they're closer to rich than they are to being on the downside but again, i just don't know if you take apple, a company i've loved forever, and you look at tim cook and the legacy he continues on with steve and they were, of course, here. i don't think what's factored into apple at this point is the car. and everything i'm hearing about the car is spectacular what that means, when they deliver, don't have the specifics. but what i do know suggests that is that next amazing breakout product potentially for apple. and meanwhile, their phones, ipads, macpros, on and on, the new watch. they're building a really good business they need another breakout product over the next couple years. i think it's the car i'm hearing they have an "a" plus team on the car, but i wish i could tell you more about timing. >> you're teasing us with that. >> yeah, jim, back to startups and valuations for a moment, good too see you, by the way how many of your portfolio c

we have to reset the valuations. 500 at 17 times, when we look at the 70s or 80s when we got control of inflation and were in a recession, you had s&p ratio of 12. i don't know if we have to get down there we're certainly at an average of 17 or 18 that's not the right number. i know that much and we haven't really seen any companies warn on demand destruction. we've seen margin problems we've seen a couple things here and there. with you might see that in this quarter. we haven't seen it yet i don't think we're priced for a global recession >> yeah. we haven't really heard about the inteenterprise demand dryin. maybe that's next. 3500 for the s&p 500 what do you think of that level? >> so, you know, i have to look -- they're all in the same ballpark i've been looking at the 33 to 3400 3400, 3350 if you go back to before -- what i was looking at is the february 2020 level but if you go back because we had a runup into that january and february level f you go before that, it's 3,000. now if you go back to dk's, you kno

much rather be acquired at my full valuation than to go public into a down valuation.nd last but not least, but even the spac option makes more sense in some cases than actually going public at this particular time and the reason, you get a certainty of close, most ipos won't price, you get a favorable valuation with the spacs and you're getting that the multiples expand by the time the transaction closes for those three reasons, it actually makes more sense and we're hearing a lot of private company founders talk about that in their board meetings and as they plan their next 12 to 18 months. >> it seems like there's respect for the tool, as a tool, just as long as the projections are reasonable and responsible talk to me about intracart you think there's the possibility for some value there, depending on how it comes in. >> this is one of my favorite names. we're investors in instacart it's a name i've been talking about for the last two years this is a name every public investor deserves to own and the reason that i believe that is, number one, if this ipo comes anyw

and if they can do it, how much room is there to make money given the current valuation today of likeion like could this be $150 billion company over the next seven years? is that reasonable >> josh, thanks for the question i think you're spot on on uber congrats on the conference last week i saw scott tweeting, you know, these fine pictures i don't know looked like manhattan beach. i'm not sure you guys did any work but when i think about snowflake, listen, it's commonly referred to as a data warehouse. i think people need to -- that will undermine how you think about this business. snowflake has clearly emerged as a fourth cloud think of it as the data layer that sits on top, the data cloud that sits on top of aws, on gcp, on azure they have clients now paying them up to 50 m$50 million a yer you only get that type of scale if you're a super important piece of the substructure for the biggest clients of the world whether they be the nikes or apples or wall marts or goldman sachs or et cetera that's the position they occupy. the database in the market 22 years ago had an enterprise v

and are vc's waiting for valuations to fall further before getting in?> there is a lot of dry powder. when you talk to investors in the private equity space and venture-capital space a lot of folk's are fortunate to have raised, the pace of capital deployment has slowing down. there are two things happening right now and i will bifurcate the growth market and equity market. in the growth market business has continued as expected. there is great innovation happening out of a lot of scientific labs, engineers who are leading other startups, corporations who have their ideas and that continues at the normal pace. these moments of economic downturn are the time more resilient companies are being built. on the other hand for growth equity, growth stage companies, i think you are seeing the pace slow down there. people want to see better fundamentals and economics. emily: the hedge fund tiger global has been such a big player. it has also been blamed for inflating a lot of these valuations, because they had a lot of money to deploy. what do you make of that cr

so these are wide differences in valuations. the penalties here not only is that the $250 million potentially that i talked about, we're talking about never having to be able to do business in new york state again. on top of that, not being able to apply for loans for five years for any bank that's registered to the new york department of finance, which ooip trying to findbacks that aren't registered to the department of finance. so it could be potentially very difficult for trump to continue to fund his operations going forward. so drilling into the details of that and how that may flush out, either way, the scope of of the fraud here is significant according to the attorney general and according to her continued up through 2020 after michael cohen testified in congress in 2019, which is when she says she began this investigation. >> i'm going to get into some of those specifics that you mentioned. david, since you have been corring this for a long time, it's no surprise she talked about doing it when she ran for attorney gener

obviously valuations have been hurt affirm is just one name.cquisition of a payments company. they're trying to compete. how do you see the competition playing out over the coming years between the terrific banks like a jpm and some of the growing newcomers? >> we are in square, we are in stripe, we are in affirm but when have you seen an incumbent clearly dislodge a new player with a modern infrastructure that doesn't happen very often so, i bet against jpm and in favor of an affirm or a stripe i think those are very solid, long-term bets, in my view and you have to take the long view i'm less concerned with quarter to quarter variations other than good opportunities to buy if one believes in the five-year picture. >> you don't think there will be a convergence at some point where jpmorgan could acquire one of these big players you think it's one at the expense of the other >> i'm more interested in the case where one of these things acquire jpmorgan yes, i'm only joking but it does happen, you know tesla has large enough market cap to buy any

valuations will be extremely tempting for him. that's how he made himself a billionaire.g these contrarian bets. the performance has been bad. from a market perspective, he's been underperforming in the year that ended in march. it was only 11% compared to market average of 38%. that number has gone down since then. we just don't have that number yet and it's probably underwater. i remember, this is a man who made the single biggest legendary bet in the community with a $20 million bet on alibaba back in 2000. he's made a 3000 fold return on that investment. it's a bet of all bets. he doesn't want to go out with this stain on his legacy. i remember when he was already going to retire and we asked him, how do you feel about the performance so far on a scale of zero to 100? he said 20%. he didn't think he had left anything. he considers himself a failure at that time. he doesn't want to go out in a whimper. from a personal perspective, yes, this is all of a piece. david: maybe third time lucky. [laughter] the third vision fund. we will see if we can raise the funds. the ali

not the valuation step-up companies or private investors are used to.'s prevention bankers softbank and sequoia among other names and the deal koss change in coming weeks or months. bottom line, money raised here will be used for more m & a. talked before about the crceo's role as a consolidator and looking gaining users in the u.s., not pure play crypto companies. one to watch in the next couple weeks, a source close to that process telling me binance, another crypto exchange and ftx front-runners to buy voyager our bankruptcy disruption. back to you. >> interesting, kate you mentioned ftx a consolidator back stopping other players. whether it means kind of making sure counterparties are liquid and all the rest of it along the way. i wonder if that changes the assessment of what the new valuation might be what i mean by that, if now a bigger company bought a lot of other stuff relative to when it last raised money, is it apples to apples to say it's a flat ruined >> a flat round? >> taking on leverage here will the value of their books be the same and

that is likely where they are -- there is still valuation risk in this market.what do you think the headline number should be? we are trading on those kinds of numbers, this market has got a long way to go to the downside. cameron: we do not think we need to get down to that 12 to 14 times earnings we saw in market bottoms like in 2008, 2009 when you were in a liquidity crisis. there is always times where you can test, if you have a big selling moment, that capitulate to flash where you might get down to those valuations over the short term. this takes out that scenario, another 30% down that some of the biggest bears are calling for. we think that is slightly below average, something closer to 15 times on real estimates. meaning, once we markdown evaluations -- earning estimates for next year, something closer in that 14, 15 times range seems more reasonable. that sets you up for powerful board returns from there. not only do you have a low bar on the earnings front, you also have valuations being below-average, which are supportive of higher than average forwa

but it does come at a time when aston martin and ferrari have seen their valuations decline.n the luxury space, what's happening in europe how much investor appetite is there going to be for this ipo >> yeah. sara, what's happening in the markets and with ipos very difficult time to come out with one of the biggest ipos in recent history certainly in the auto market. now on the bull case this is a chance to own one of the most storied names in the auto sector that gold porsche badge is a profit machine it's got margins of 22 to 25%. in the auto world that is massive. you know, they had -- they're expecting sales this year of around 38 billion euros onlyon production, but around 300,000 cars qatar trying to buy large blocks of stock on the governance side you have the family that's going to control this through a special block of voting shares the public shareholders will get nonvoting shares that's an issue. second issue the ceo of volkswagen will also be the ceo of porsche and for investors who really want these companies separate, it's a problem to have the ceo running both

basis back when rates were 3.5% before, the market is about 14% higher on the valuation basis. where it pushes yields up higher, we could see another down side or retreat back to those june lows in equity market >> higher yields means cash is coming out of the economic system the machine so to speak of the american economy does that mean recession is inev inevitable >> it certainly is more likely i think we're really set up for recession at this point. the amount the fed has to raise rates at this point. we really do need to slow down i think it is really more a question of -- we're already in a technical recession. it is already happening. is it a deep recession or dramatic or three or four quarters where we still have unemployment below 5% and still constant job growth? sure it's very possible for me, it is really about what is happening on the corporate side will we see profit growth going ahead? right now, we look at forecasts and the type of revisions back down and 5% profit growth is below what we run at inflation right now. it really isn't attractive for investors. >> er

the fact the valuations never really got too cheap outside the biggest five nasdaq stocks, s&p probably under 16 times forward earnings but now everyone has to tell you forward earnings are going to come down a little bit so i think that is the spot we're stuck in right now. >> speaking of earnings coming down eastman chemical was on that list and did cut their guidance, we got a down grade of dow earlier today. i think industrials maybe in a couple weeks. >> industrials were looking like they were putting up a fight and out performing on a one-year basis the s&p. a lot of that is defense contractors, and some of the rails and things like that now i guess chemicals, anything used in natural gas as an input is not in a great spot so it is definitely not feeling as if there is a real harbor in the cyclicals right now. we're still above the lows that desperately levels where it was this stagflationary panic we had in june. this today feels like the cpi said, not so fast. we're not going to give you instant relief you have to wait at least another month to have the kind of peak inflation, p

eric: where we invest at the seed, valuations have moderated.y have not yet come down to pre-2021 levels. but we take a very long view. we invest in a good year or in a bad year. our companies will start maturing years down the road, so we find valuations to be more attractive today, for sure, but more importantly, we have more time to do our work. there isn't the frenzy that existed last year when people wanted to close their rounds in a matter of days. now we are able to close a round in a matter of weeks, giving us more time to do our work and our due diligence. emily: what is your take on, the rate hike from the fed, they seem to be continuing. her is that impacting your outlook? eric: the biggest impact for venture capital at the moment has to do with the fact that the ipo market is dead in the water. so companies that wanted to go public this year are postponing that particular event, and that always has the effect on the m&a market as well. if the ipo market is slow, the m&a market is slow as well. last year we saw a record amount of liqu

that is the driver of theat valuation in the stock i expect the stock valuation to suffer. >> you can% in the pre-market. jeff, thank you for joining us good to see you this morning >>> let's have a quick look at markets as we leave this morning. europe is down 1.5%. following decline in asia. it is dragging down sentiment for the u.s. futures nasdaq down 1% s&p wndo about .20%. that does it for "worldwide exchange." "squawk box" is next with becky and melissa. so you're covered. on-premise and in the cloud. you can run things the way you want - your team, ours or a mix of both. with the nation's largest ip converged network. from the most innovative company. bring on today with comcast business. powering possibilities. >>> good morning futures pointing to lower open after jackson hole ruined the august rally for stocks. we get you ready for a new month of trading. >>> developing now new covid lockdowns in china details straight ahead. >>> the u.s. government planning to limit semiconductor sales to china. it is thursday, september 1st, 2022 "squawk box" begins right now. >>> good mor

my real concern in terms of valuation is how will this play out? for all that got invested in 2020 and 2021. >> do you think lps are looking at this volatility to scoop up assets? what are the things that you are seeing? >> yes. we mentioned that -- mentioned that fundraising start a bit. gps are waiting to figure out how to incorporate all of the market indicators. as you have been talking about. transaction activities were a little slow. valuations are coming down. it should be a more favorable investment environment. investors are looking here. in asia, we are measuring a billion plus of dry powder already committed, waiting to get into the market. that capital will be invested in a more favorable evaluation environment. >> the same thing i would imagine is some of that or even most of that may have been committed before all the challenges in china and the economy, before the regulation really came to fruition. what are the attitudes right now in private money in terms of exposure to china? where might that still present some value? >> absolutel

i look more at it on a valuation basis. if you look at the 15-year average on the s&p, it's 15.8 times, okay? if we get down to that level at this level of earnings we would blow through the low and it's possible we do that. i don't think that's the worst-case scenario and it could be the best case scenario, and i am not a technician nor do i play one on tv, and we have not hit all of the levels people talk about for bottoming, so the best case scenario right now is that we do a big flush and possibly blow through them and get it over quickly and set ourselves up for more durable upside as the fed gets to peak rates. >> mr. wonderful, are you as negative on the market as some of the calls are going back to the lows, and i have more in front of me that have more negative predictions whether it's on earnings or margins or where stocks are going where are you? >> we are at this week at maximum uncertainty, and those that were thinking 4%, they would stop there, and we know that's not going to be the case, and is it at 5%? and

if you get a big valuation and earnings hit, that's where the math brings you.t is worth keeping in mind that whatever the ultimate low is in the index, typically, the market doesn't spend a ton of time there. right? so it's like, what are you playing for? are you playing for, make sure you catch the last move lower or the next move lower? or are you saying, on a three-year basis, if you buy the market down 20%, you're more often up than down and you can get some yield up front on the bond side of things, and so i think there's a tactical picture that's very fast-moving and there's a strategic one that allows you to kind of figure out how the risk-reward has changed with what's happened in the markets this year. >> as you're speaking the s&p is turning positive, albeit fractionally it does seem like the trajectory near term, to your point, is a bounce in the s&p, given the fact that we are looking at these oversold levels, and also to your point, from where we go from there, sort of delineates between the bulls and the bears. but i was going to say something, an

valuations are a problem right now, but also is the fed response to inflation. will they raise interest rates to a point that really, not just taps the break on the economy, but maybe slams on them a little bit. and for that reason, many of the commodities out there are taking a hit. oil is down 2.25%, although that's better than what the stock market is doing right now. copper prices down 1.5%. even gold prices, which have typically been associated with inflation are down on today's session. and the real estate sector spider that looks at some of these real estate investments trusts in the s&p 500 is down 2.35%. so a lot of these are going down i know that our next market guests will have more to talk about with that front. and one place to watch, the mega-cap trade, the stocks that rgably, mathematically have the most influence the alphabet shares and nvidia shares, three to focus on right now. because over the course of the last couple of days, we've seen moves now down towards their lows of the year and the reason why it's important is because these megacap