>> so, there is valuations and there is a.i. valuations. a.i.ations detached from reality about two years ago. and then within that a.i., there is companies like anthropic, openai, which are completely separate and that detached from the reality of even a.i. valuations. so you can't look to them as market bellwethers or comparable company of any type. you have to look at what is the financial performance, really look at operating metrics, really looking at how the company is performing, so when you see the headline of an anthropic, data bricks, any of these a.i. companies, you can't look at them as a measure of the market. >> no, but do you look at them and say, bubble or anything of the like, even as, you know, they differentiate themselves as you say from traditional even a.i. companies. do you look at it with any sort of pause or no? >> a lot of pause. very concerning. and -- >> concerning? >> concerning because everybody else says openai is valued at this level, anthropic is valued at this level, so should i. that's really not relevant to 99

could create valuation in person parts of the market that could prop up some lower valuations. and, two, is the a.i. stuff. what i mean by that is not just whatever these headline numbers are, what they mean, translate to corporates not necessarily the same thing. proof cases on productivity endings frond. the reason we know the market won't collapse, we're not paying for '25 earnings or even '26. continuing to get productive fi. today's valuation is high but don't know, can debate, is it expensive on '28 and '29 earnings? how much ininventory. >> what do you think? better than expected growth in terms of gdp. good jobs, employment, wages okay. adam mentioned productivity. helping inflation. same time, if any of the trump policies work the way we think they will you'll have lower commodity costs maybe on the energy side, of course. drill baby drill. better growth. a little less inflation. maybe it stays firm but that's okay. that leads to better than expected earnings. earnings now running 11% growth year over year. people aren't talking about, scott, we talked about this on "t

>> it is a valuation thing. and in the passive investing world, as bonawyn just said, nobody cares about valuation, and apple wins to that, without question. but when valuation is sort of at the forefront, and to tim's point, when you trade either side of next year's numbers, with revenue growth 8% or so, with margins, tim pointed out, as well, they haven't been deteriorating, they haven't been expanding, either. i think you're making your bet, overall revenue will continue to grow and services as a percentage will continue to grow and get closer to 27%, 28%. and then maybe you can justify that valuation. but short of that, you know, it feels like we're in another one of these cycles where we've seen it before. apple can go down 25%, 35%. >> again, if it's not really today's news on china and it's the valuation, then we can be -- we could have been having this conversation for the last three years. are you worried about china if you're apple? that's not only the story of the day, but it's the only real story. we

i don't like stocks at these valuations. and i would still maintain maybe some of that cash you might want to hold in a real asset, perhaps a commodity fund, which seems to be showing signs of life. and gold i think has another move higher as high as well, although it is near the all time highs. so but i still think dollar cost averaging into into gold makes. >> sense in this. >> uncertain geopolitical environment. >> sure. >> before i let you go, jeffrey, i know. >> and i. >> you. >> know, we've talked before and i could see from some. >> of your social. >> media posts that you're out in the palisades. and it's really hard to comprehend those pictures, especially 3000 miles away here in new york for many. i just wanted to say, we wish you well, everybody out there, our hearts with everybody. just a terrible situation that's going to take a long time to recover from. >> it's much worse than anybody realizes in terms of the disorganization. there's nobody in charge. there was no preparation. and nobody knows what rebuilding i

and how does this impact them, how does it lead to valuations?do -- do you think hyper-scalars will have to scale back? anika: this is where -- this is the big question, if china can do it, keeping an open source could there be change? tom: you're -- you're not -- you're not -- you're not adding. what would your advice be? to sell -- to sell -- to sell -- to sell? >> this is the point where it holds its value, the spectrum is overvalued with forgotten stocks pretty reasonable so they've adopted a barbell strategy. a -- along -- along with high-growth, blending it with u.s. -- the u.s. exposure because when we start the year we've seen -- we've seen -- we've seen yields, a much more easy cpi report, we have this new news triggering events volatility and valued parts shine a light every time. adopting that barbell for u.s. has been working, that is a prudent way at this point. tom: that's the barbell, what about the terrorist threat, what is the -- what is the -- what is the -- what is the tariff trade at over two and a half -- over to have percent

so it's rerating the stocks i want to talk to you specifically about valuation has the view on valuationsn these companies changed with the idea. again if all of this is true that this open source model has created a product that competes with an open ai, that competes with the gemini for about $6 million and happening in just a few months, does that change the valuation of some of these large tech companies that have made big ai bets, or does it change your view on their capex spending? >> yeah. >> i think it does. >> a little bit of both. >> so you. >> have you know, we talk about these tech. companies in the us as if they're. >> a monolith, you. >> know. like us tech. what's the valuation. >> on. >> on the mag seven on the. mega-cap technology complex. >> and the reality. >> is. >> is that each one of. >> these stocks has individual valuations. >> like for example, alphabet is trading at. >> 22 times. >> our earnings. >> estimates this year. >> i don't. >> think you need. >> much of. >> a rerating. >> on alphabet. >> with the news coming out of china. >> because quite. >> frankly. >> i

was it all about valuations mostly?ecause the rotation trade was going to work last year, it really didn't, but there's signs it's coming on strong now. >> it's coming on strong so, yes, it's the push and pull, right? i was pushed out of tech because it was so lofty. nvidia just couldn't keep going up as much as it did. look, it's valuation and people starting to say big investors, big money and fast money is saying i've got to be out of tech and into industrials, into defense tech, into areas like -- charles: you like consumer staples. let's put up three names on your watch list, a really intriguing variety here. general mills is at the top of the list, the number five percentage gainer today. >> that's because it's the perfect hedge, and it's the perfect stock whether it's progresso soup or betty crocker, everyone's selling it off thinking that betty crocker was done because everyone's taking ozempic, and no one's going to have a brownie again. that's not the case. cheerios, we're still going to eat cheerios every day

but do you see an endless runway for valuations in sports? and do you think at some point it gets into bubble-like territory? how do you view it when now seemingly, as you just referenced yourself, everybody is talking about it? >> yeah, this is the same conversation i had eight years ago about late-stage tech. remember when there were only four companies that were valued at over a billion dollars and they were profitable and everyone called it a bubble? now we have trillion dollar companies and over 100 companies that are valued at over a billion. we're in that space with sports franchises. what's the key to this equation is not the valuations, it's going to sound crazy. it's revenue. revenue is driving valuations. the multiples are staying the same. all the revenue is coming from national media rights. so the streamers and the media companies are all paying these sports teams, because the top 80 to 90 of the television broadcasts are all live sports events and politics. so it's driving all of the viewership, which is driving these big mega

or is this just letting fundamentals catch up to the valuation?self, in nvidia terms, doesn't look super demanding. mid-30s forward multiple. that that different. so interesting. the markets willingness to believe there really is an aggressive new -- >> see if it is above that level. hasn't closed above 150, by the way since november. looks to be right there as well. [ closing bell ] >>> that does it for us. see you tomorrow. for us, we wi see you tomorrow. that is the end of regulation. nvidia closing at a record and leaping over 100k to start this week as tech takes the seat. >> we have a big slow coming your way in just a moment. in just a moment the coe of fubotv joi

and quite frankly, it's still sort of expensive on valuation. it's flirting with the levels that we saw this summer, 70 bucks or so. to me, it feels like it's going to take it out and test a new level on the downside. i don't think, in my opinion, there's not a compelling reason to own this, not on valuation yet and not on the turnaround yet. the fact that the competition is only getting worse doesn't help them, either. >> bonawyn? >> i have a very small position. i wouldn't sell it yet, only because i do believe in the long-term story, and ultimately, it's small enough and we've right sized it so we can kind of play for any type of leg up, but i'm with guy, i -- it's hard for me to really find some compelling catalysts. the issue is, we need some exposure to retail within the portfolio. it's not as if we can invest completely in a.i. or completely in renewable energy, so, from the portfolio standpoint, i can understand that you feel like you're picking amongst the upper echelon of retail, but they certainly need to get their act together and wi

valuations don't matter. we have a mode around our business. when thing goes higher; when thing goes pear-shaped. they trade different. >> both times the stock went down anywhere from 35 to 45%. you saw the same thing last tuesday, i believe, made a new all-time low. it is setting up for a very similar move. >> the obvious difference is lilly. nvidia is up. what i think you're going to need is people don't need those complicated. you can get another chip from a host of other semis. i think what you might see is not the whole trade semi fail. just the larger claims. >> aversion trade so to speak. >> right. >> julie, let's connect. are we concerned about these trades, concerned about the evaluation of these two areas, which were the hottest areas of the market, what happens to the markets overall. as we sit at this crucial moment, ahead of the inauguration of donald trump next week. as we are expecting cpi tomorrow. >> i think earnings season is going to be much more persuasive with investors than what is going on with these two. i think we can s

an impact on these valuations.e need to be mindful of that, so the activities will increase, but you have a large difference. yesterday we mentioned that before the interview. they have been trying to ipo six companies. they got a better pricing -- pricing in a volatile sense. we see this kind of activity across the different market. ipo's, m&a and the economy. priti: we see the geopolitics and private markets, which are supposed to be insulated, all wrapped up together. the deputy ceo of tko. tom: great interview. what a lovely backdrop. play more interviews coming through through the next few hours. and there's more from us as well in the next couple of minutes. we will give you a preview of those check earnings. this is bloomberg. ♪ tom: three of the mag seven reporting later today. it's a story illustrated across the mag seven earnings if the analysts are right, which is growth will be there and is slowing from previous quarters. this is the microsoft story expecting to see growth of about $70 billion in terms

they believe the valuation is too high and it is difficult for the company to live up to the lofty valuation. >> if you miss the valuation, you miss the last 20 years. palantir, i continue to view as the next oracle or next salesforce. when i look at a.i. revolution. when i look at numbers. $2 trillion of a.i. cap ex in the incomes few years. where karp plays out the white knuckle periods. i think this could be a three-digit stock as it plays out. these are the times that you look at the winners and how to own them. >> you and i talked about this before. i'm looking at the one-week chart of the dollar. we did get a spike after the jobs report. it was still moving higher last week. i know you are bullish on tech. you are always bullish to be fair. out of the top ten, which do you see as most likely to be i am pangt -- impacted by the rise in dollar? >> apple will have headwind. i think the street is already factoring in some of that in terms of estimates. i don't think this becomes that dramatic if we actually start to see this curtail, but it just comes down to, frank, a month from now is a

bias will that hurt valuations?on plus real. if real is a higher percentage, that's a good thing. there will be room to cut. if it is about the same or there is more inflation and that nominal number as a percentage of the total, it is going to be a pause and that is not good for the markets. lisa: our credit markets and high-yield markets -- are credit markets and high-yield markets leveraged the growth and potential cuts? steve: you are leading the witness. [laughter] lisa: carry-on. please answer. steve: as long as the market is constructive about growth, valuations make sense. if there is volatility on inflation accelerating, concerned you will not have cuts, and interest rate spike or pause, that will be different. some of the outliers like the tariff conversation i am less concerned about today. lisa: how much are you starting to look outside the u.s. because of the valuation story? we keep hearing about europe. we are here but also investing. steve: one interesting thing about europe is the real rates are low

. >> the dean of valuations. did the deep. >> tech news change. >> the power demand story. >> two big. >> companies make. >> it. >> a big deal. today we're going. >> to tell. >> you who. >> and why. >> and oh yes. >> kelly the federal reserve it. >> is their. >> first meeting. >> of. >> the year. >> and it. >> kicks off. >> with the fed. >> whisperer himself. >> david zervos. here with his hot take. >> looking forward to that as always. tech stocks are bouncing back after yesterday's big sell off, leading the market with a 1.7% gain. we're up about three quarters of a percent on the s&p, a quarter percent for the dow. and nvidia is bouncing back about 6 or 7% this afternoon. it's seen some steady gains throughout the session today. and look at this market cap back above 3 trillion. that said, it comes after it shed $589 billion in market value yesterday, the biggest one day loss for any market cap for any single stock. brian. >> wow. now market momentum. we all know it's a powerful force. i mean to your point. >>

valuations can be extended.quite saw this coming but it really does accentuate the need for diversification. jonathan: chinese startup deepseek sparking concern over u.s. tech dominance. nvidia set for its biggest market cap drop if this holds. jim bianco writing we worry that mag seven technology is outdated and slow thanks to deepseek. you can argue that while it does not impact the broader economy, it is a big market event. welcome to the program. is this a big game changer? jim: it's a game changer for the mag seven stocks, in that they will have to rethink what capex spending will be, maybe even where they will go from here. is it a big game changer for everybody else, game changer for the economy? no, it is not. but the mag seven is 34% of the s&p. if nvidia has a problem, maybe people don't have to worry about their job, but anyone who owns anything related to a broad base of the stock market, they have concern because of these stocks in their dominance. lisa: people have to question how far deepseek's in

the rising rates not good for valuations. look at the dow industrials, down 70 points. 42,641 is the level for the blue chip. broader s&p 500 is now back below that 6,000 mark. 5,934. two-third of one percent decline. look on 5,950 the medium term 50-day moving average. below that level and just to give you perspective here, at the highs of the session, we were up 25 points and down 56 at the low. keep an eye on the particular ranges today. the nasdaq composite, tech heavier side, down 1.5%. the laggard, that's 289 points to the downside, 19,576 is your trade on the composite index. one of the big things we are watching today is also the opposite move in the positive side of things for vaccine makers after the u.s. had its first death linked to bird flu that we saw from an elderly patient who may have had pre-existing conditions down in louisiana. moderna got a grant from the u.s. government to develop a vaccine for bird flu. other companies that have early stage bird flu-type product vaccines in development, they are up big

targeting valuation above chanere. that company was worth $56 billion.p 50% in the last 12 months. scarlet: what does it have over its competitors that people didn't appreciate? >> they're pushing a lot of growth. the idea that you want to buy companies that are growing and have a lot of blank space or the perception of blank space and they talked about their ain't to have some pricing power discrepancy relative their competitors and you look at this broadly speaking with president trump back the white house, there's a lot of excitement around energy, what this could mean for lng. one of the things is this idea that if there is a push for energy, these exporters are going to be winners because you need to transport it regardless of if price are higher or lower. scarlet: what does this 40% price cut ear by venture global mean for what's been a fairly optimistic outlook for i.p.o.'s in 2025? or is this very company and sector specific and we shouldn't extrapolate? >> it's close. the investors have pointed out that hey, this is an individual name that our i

if you strip out those valuations from the market the rest of the best, valuations are not extended.bout the high flyers not flying so high. we see the market broadening out and it is too early to call it a trend but we have seen the equal weight start to outperform and that is our belief. we have tilted and more diversified and we are not getting to overweight so we do not mind a little bit of volatility, that is to be exact -- expected. we do not expect valuations to extend but that the equity market will follow earnings. the deficit picture is a big part of the story so we are not overly concerned. the rest of the market is appropriately valued to deliver reasonable returns. lisa: 60-40 is back with middling returns. matt: we never thought it was gone. we like it. we do feel better because it is not that difficult. do not tell anyone else. being a fixed income strategist is not different. you look at the yag, you can get 5% on high-quality fixed income meaning that you will get 5% year in and out. that is how fixed income diversifies, steady yield year in and out. let us say that

are valuations too high? is this a pause? are we consolidating gains? phil blancato, lance robertson here to break it all down. we'll be right back. ♪ ♪ let's go boys. the way that i approach work, post fatherhood, has really been trying to understand the generation that we're building devices for. here in the comcast family, we're building an integrated in-home wifi solution for millions of families, like my own. connectivity is a big part of my boys' lives. it brings people together in meaningful ways. ♪ ♪ charles: as i stated before the break, we limped out of 2024 bigtime, right? which highlights the hurdles we're going to face early in 2025. so the question is, how does thal rally resume with so many critical valuation metrics near or at their all-time high? whether it's pe ratio last 12 months, it's only be this high 18% of the time. the next 12 months is almost the highest ever, same thing. we're at percentiles here in that either we've never if been this higher to just fractionally. by the way, this is from halliburton, and they put out particul

, the reason they have high valuations is that further out, there's more aggressive earnings growth.ou look at the five-year earnings number of every company in the u.s. stock market, you would see that its valuation based on that forward earnings is the long-term average of 18 times. that's not reflecting all of the expectations that are in these stocks. but the flip side of that is when you have these high expectations, you're segment them up for let's say disappointment because a lot of these companies are not going to make them. something is going to come along and knock some of them off and in this case, it's deepseek. but it was probably going to be something. scarlet: it was probably going to be something. and dave, earning season is upon us. we're going to hear from a lot of the mag-7 names and there are estimates that meta, microsoft, alphabet may commit more than $200 billion in execs this year. what -- cap pecks this year. it got a lot tougher for these executives, didn't it? >> yes, it did the justification for that spending has suddenly become much harder to make. they w

our next dpest says guest says frothy valuations.introduce james, the cio of coast capital. james, great to have you on the show. explain to us how you are positioning the portfolio at the moment when clearly you believe the u.s. is too expensive. however, you re believing there are opportunities in europe. where? which ones? >> there are opportunities across europe and western europe and we find compelling valuations in that part of the world have never been at the discounts they are against the u.s. markets. so, it's a historically interesting time to invest and when you add the layer of the currencies in europe having sold off so much. so, you are buying these discounted companies at valuations. also, the currency you pay as american investors to acquire the companies is depressed as well. there is an opportunity. we think there are so many companies in europe that are leaders in their sectors from a global perspective that have attractive growth outlooks and attractive margin outlooks as well. we think that is a good place to sta

how does that complicate valuations forward for those sectors?moving fast but if you take a look basically at the market down and recovery, basically what you are seeing is the most tariff expose sectors outperformed the market lately. so they are moving with the market. i would argue right now the equity market has not really priced in anything for tariffs. we can debate whether that is reasonable or unreasonable. i would argue tariffs are going to come in are in the house economics and. the precise numbers is subject to timing and that can be different but we are still one of the basic high macro forecasts the street for what growth is going to do this year. i would argue it matters for equities at the end of the day is what that does for growth. it is just a little unclear. not just tariffs but plenty of other things happening. i will also point out in terms of thinking about the tariffs, there are a number of things that are different this time relative to the last time. last time around i would argue the tariffs were really a big surprise. t

are they thinking about the v word valuation?i've never heard a retail investor mention valuation or what a stock's trading at. >> i mean that's a great point. we've seen the equity risk premium right. the extra reward for owning stocks versus bonds that fell into negative territory in december for the first time since 2002. and yet we saw continued fund flows into the market. that did not deter individuals from piling into the market. whether that changes now is going to be a really key thing to watch as it pertains to these ai stocks so far. i think what the data shows us is that a lot of individuals did pounce in to buy this dip, and it reminds me of 2022 when we had this huge technology sell off and some of the biggest buys for individuals that year were stocks like meta stocks like tesla. and then they were quickly rewarded the following year. >> all right. so you've done a lot of reporting about what some people call the gamification of investing. you've compared it to poker. you've looked at some other developments and it

obviously there's valuation concerns, but that exists everywhere. so i think up and down the financial sector, the banks, the cards, the insurance companies, obviously it's very difficult to find some subsector or industry within financials that is not doing well. and i think that speaks to lauren's point to the strength of the economy and the consumer. >> i mean, by the way, bank of america is one of the better performing bank stocks today. in fact, it is the best performing today of the large banks. >> it shows you how much they care. >> do you like the group? >> i think it's. where dan ended is a really important point to emphasize, which is that the banks have been doing well not just because of animal spirits related to deregulation or what have you. >> and frankly. >> i think we could say this for a lot of sectors. it's not. >> totally clear. >> what the impact of new policy will be. there's a lot of push and pull. banks have been performing well because the yield curve has inverted, which incentivizes private credit growth and improves the ab

what is a valuation you might be looking like?uble is the stage the first two years. valuation depends, but we got an up around which is good for a series c at this stage. tom: plenty being forced to do down around spray not the case for you guys. is the u.k. government doing enough? how would you rate this u.k. government support for the tech sector and the work you are doing? tommy: in the narrow definition, we want from the u.k. government is to be active on defining the use of net zero strategies. saying to the economy, you can buy high quality wants and that would be a huge demand signal. on the broader scale, what do you want from a tech founder? good tax regime, good employment, good immigration rules. and good skilled labor. definitely getting good skilled labor. the uk's home to science and finance hubs. tom: and you want to see regulation? tommy: regulation is important for us because we are like a financial service but unregulated. a lot of customers are banks, big commodity players, they want ratings as a risk instrume

are we looking at valuation that grows into infinity? at what point does that price into the scenario we are in now? also, what is to come over the next couple of years? and what cost does this ai spending come? that is a boon to earnings. does it come with wage gains that could cause more consternation on the consumer and consumer spending? that let us to a more balanced approach and how we look at u.s. markets, not performing growth overvalue any longer. katie: when it comes to big tech and the magnificent seven, a lot of people would agree with you on these stretched valuations. the pushback i keep hearing is that you have the earnings growth to back it up. a sickly, the fundamentals are valuing these i wondering valuations. if you expect to see momentum behind big tech fade, would you expect earnings to disappoint a bit in 2025? >> not necessarily. that is why we have not gone underweight with growth. we are in a neutral stance, if you will. we don't see the case for that disappointment to come in 2025. as we grow into multiple -- we

associate and that -- associating that with returns got you can still see valuations growing higher, but that is where you also see some of the more meaningful selloffs. i think a lot of developments over the past few days are more to evaluation argument than anything that relates to technology in the sense that this is big news in technology but the bigger news is there is no room in the narrative to account for anything but world domination and this is allowing us to think about the range of outcomes. mike: to play the movie forward a few years, where do you see this taking us? is this a parallel to the.com era which eventually after troubles around 2000 set us up for a long period of growth? what about ai? are we in that moment? >> that is the corollary i referenced. a lot of us are pointing back to the.com era. the important element is this is an innovation super cycle. what we saw in that period was massive expansion or growth for the broad market, not just the tech area. if we are looking at trend growth from the 1990's compared to subsequent years, we saw massive expansion, wh

. >>> and stock valuations from one very unlikely source. it is tuesday, january 7th, 2025. you are watching "worldwide exchange" here on cnbc. ♪ >>> good morning. thank you for being here with us. i'm frank holland. let's get you ready for the trading day ahead. the s&p and nasdaq coming off back-to-back winning days. the market is a bit mixed. s&p lower. the dow would open seven points higher. nasdaq is down 18 points. this action we're seeing here is after a very rare warning from the fed on the state of the stock market. comments yesterday, lisa cook offering a blunt assessment saying, quote, valuations are elevated a number of assets classes including equity and corporate debt suggesting markets re price to perfection. we want to look at the pre-market gainers on the s&p 500. a chip named micron up 5%. first energy and derna and uber with fmc rounding out the top five. nvidia shares with jensen huang speaking at ces. announcing nvidia's mini desk stop. nvidia sparking a rally. chip nation mes moving higher. similar for intel and broadcom and micron here. we will talk mo

extreme valuations matter. are we at that extreme valuation area for you at this moment? >> i think, actually, we are. i share a lot of your enthusiasm looking at the economic numbers are the fundamentals of the company is, but when we compare that with where we are today, we actually broke the price going back to 1989. we are at the most extreme decile today. that is commensurate with. like.com or the post- covid era. that does not necessarily mean a selloff is immediate but it does suggest that there is more vulnerability there. while i am enthusiastic about the economy and what we see out of companies, i am a little bit nervous about what kind of sentiment is baked in. >> monetary policy. you talked about the reasonable pause. everyone is sort of accepting that now. there is still hope separate pups. hearing more officials say more than one rate cut. one said for last week. the other reaction to monetary policy post covid. we have less than one minute to go. overreactions particularly in a bond market, does it speak to some sort of underlying week this come up vulnerab

or do you think this is simply some concerns about the high valuations. and they still like growth, just not at this valuation. >> i think. >> it's a. >> combination of things. i mean, first and foremost, you've got a new administration that's coming in. >> so there's a lot of questions about what policies are going to look like. so investors are going to be doing some rotating perhaps out of a very concentrated mag seven trade. >> and they're going to be looking for. >> other areas perhaps down cap that look more constructive on the charts. i think number one, i think number two, as we sort of break this apart, we do have a yield curve. >> frank. >> that is steepening. and that should be a very bullish. >> trend for the. >> financial sector. so it doesn't have to. just be those mag seven stocks or just the ai trade. it can. >> start to broaden. >> out as the. economy looks good. jobs are still strong. >> and you're seeing those. >> productivity gains. >> happening from ai. the economy. >> is. >> in good shape. >> and that's. >> what i think other parts o

these are also high valuation stocks.eing these stocks out perform the market with high valuation and you are saying there is so much lack of clarity of how these play out for the space? >> absolutely. ltls are a really nice niche sector of trucking. they have been able to out perform the market and deliver value. a lot of that goes back to the fact they have the favorable industry structure which they've been very effective in not even engaging in price wars. they have exposure to the economy which is a risk to those names. as long as the economy can hold here, we think the names are positioned to do quite well. the other thing that is interesting for ltls is fedex is spinning off the freight division. that is the largest ltl carrier in the country. most people think it is a parcel and package company. they are the biggest trucking companies in the country. that is really going to determine the ltl stocks 2025. >> very interesting story. i'm looking at these companies. xpo with forward pe. a lot of people saying valuatio

multiples, vatuation— year then valuation multiples, valuation multiples are stretched, as everyone to run this _ and that would not be the way to run this full market, and it would — to run this full market, and it would be _ to run this full market, and it would be a _ to run this full market, and it would be a melt up a situation that— would be a melt up a situation that could lead to a meltdown. as long — that could lead to a meltdown. as long as the market goes up with— as long as the market goes up with a — as long as the market goes up with a earnings, we are in good shape — with a earnings, we are in good sha e. ~ ., shape. well, we will find out over the _ shape. well, we will find out over the next _ shape. well, we will find out over the next few _ shape. well, we will find out over the next few weeks. - shape. well, we will find out - over the next few weeks. always good to see you on the programme, ed yardeni. thank ou. global trade is very much on the agenda at the world economic forum in davos this week as donald trump settles into the oval office in washington. speak

valuation and execution.ce target to $490, genuflecting valuation with robotaxi counting for 50% of the applied valuation in the stock. therein lies the point. how much of tesla is about the cars. we talked about this with dan ives. the rest is on autonomous trying to in the ai trade. for now they take 2% out of tesla in the first wave this morning. jonathan? jonathan: we will touch base again in about 60 minutes. u.s. east coast dock workers union meeting today trying to negotiate a new labor deal in if they don't come to agreement, i january 15 strike would shuttle -- shutter gulf ports almost certain. lisa: you could have 40,000 workers striking as soon as next week. interesting, though. early october, the international longshoreman association got backing at the end of last year in december from donald trump and he was almost taking their side when it came to automation. at the end of the day, that's what the fight is about. lisa: that's what i want to build on, the use of semi automated cranes, saying th

the technology needs to deliver for the valuations to be justified.t's for sure. >> there's no telling what that trade does going moving forward or where that technology goes? >> that's right. >> you are happy to continue to put money behind it? >> we are an index fund. when the companies do well, holdings in the companies typically expand. >> let's also talk about something else that i know has been spoken about around the fund. a lot of talk last year about the pension fund in norway entering private equity. i want your take on this. invested in equities, bonds, infrastructure, but not pe. >> that's right. >> can you offer a view on why? >> we have a mandate from the ministry of finance and private equity is not in that mandate. there has been a process where they have investigated where they should be allowed to do that for the time being. they put it on pause. there's something that's now part of the political process and they will decide what to do going forward. it is interesting to see that the number of listed companies is going down and the n

joining me now is school of business professor, dean of valuation, ing a as wath ammo. i know you don't own the stocks but is there an on a market that has anointed certain stocks as kings and there may not be a lot of there there at least in the near term. what do we take from this? >> i think we have known that these are not going to be here next year, two or three years from now. there will be a timing lag. i keep trying to wrap my head around why it is such a big story but jenson wong and mark zuckerberg have made it the story it is. it is almost like the traders were not willing to listen. i wouldn't be surprised if this wasn't the first of a wave of things you see this year where someone with credibility says we are getting way ahead of the game here and this is not going to happen in the near future. you are going to value the companies based on the credits. >> you can have bubbles in certain pockets of the market without having a bubble in the entire market. we have discussed that a lot of times. is that what you would look like that it can be a self correcting

believe it or not, as you valuation for amazon is not terrible.ame i think is been over the last 12 months we have had a management change, we have had real focus on products. i think you have a valuation that is very defensible, even though there is an argument about the existential risk amid all the other competitors out the mac i really like that one. >> anything international? >> i look at some of the places across europe, again, names in atf, names where i think are actually going to be very, very durable in an environment where we may be worried about global growth, you know, really strong. >> are they in the etf? >> they are. it is about companies growing their payout levels, not necessarily those looking to pay back a lot. i think it is a case where you can find healthcare, the energy sector, too. coming into 2024 to stick >> >> if you look at the integrated oils, i don't think they priced a lot of this. it is a function of these being able to pay big gives that much more broke evens, shall, especially. >> in conclusion, people say this is

and, look, to your point, right, the market is very expensive valuation wise.we've had a lot of big drivers for the markets over the last 15 years, and that's how we have these valuations we have, because the market has gone up more than economic growth has. charles: right. >> so, again, to keep that kind of, that valuation spread there, we're going to need that support. so we've got to, you know, inflation needs to keep coming down, the government needs to keep spending, you know, kind of what they're doing, an infrastructure bill, something like that would certainly be very helpful to the market, something that president trump has talked about. and, again, we've got to keep wage growth and employment in line are. and if those things stay in line, there's no reason this market k-7b9 rally some more this year -- can't rally some more this year. charles: the 20-year rate, the lower wages at which, you know, we'll see because deportation may have some wage pressure, interest and inflation rates decline, spending robust from the government, you need to see rebound

18 time earnings and the implied valuation doesn't bring it there dupont is at 75 a share in it could be close to 100. >> i think most people have heard of dick's sporting goods, not sure if they've heard of the competitor that is poised for breakout and devalue buy-in about you trade where consumers are being a little bit more value conscious and it's interesting with a clean balance sheet and a couple pickup. >> the stock is up. >> this edition of barron's.com follow us at barron's online with the latest updates. that's all for us we will see you next wee this is a fox business special presentation, unbreakable investor in the new gilded age. here's your host, charles payne. >> thank you, thank you, thank you so much. really appreciate it. i know it's cold outside but it's warm in here. i know everyone's excited too because it's going to get really amazing. but we're going to talk about why it's going to get amazing. welcome to unbreakable investor, the investor in the new gilded age. i want to start with a lyric here that i think is appropriate for many reasons, but it's been no be

we will be focused on how long-term term valuations in equity markets will reflect that and i think sos been so resilient and we have seen a rise in rates since september and equity markets have been ignoring it but i think we are getting to the point where it's the danger zone so pullback is something that is not surprising for me. i think volatility will stay here and for active managers it's not a bad environment, something i'm doing on a day-to-day basis now but in terms of the equity pullback may be i'm waiting for some levels where we can get back into equities but it is too early. >> so we are close to that danger point. what are the levels we are looking at? >> 5%. we are all talking about 5% yields. some people were talking about 6%. >> i think the level of yields at this level but with the carry higher you need to see the rates to go 50 or 60 basis points higher to start losing money on the holding period and for that, for you to lose money on 10-year yield's, they need to say it -- to stay there on a sustained basis which i don't think is going to happen. the dynamic in the

this is a high valuation may have right now.litics and his relationship with donald trump, and you can see some of the air coming out of that between now and 2026 if he doesn't show other results with different businesses and with ev sales, for that matter. scarlet: david, thank you so much. tesla shares down about 7.5%. in fact, it kind of mirrors the decline we are seeing across the broader market with the s&p 500, losing ground, giving up some of its gains. all of its gains now looking like it is headed for a fifth straight day of declines. the nasdaq 100 lose even more, losing night ends of 1%. session lows for s&p 500 at midday. this is bloomberg. ♪ the future is not just going to happen. you have to make it. and if you want a successful business, all it takes is an idea, and now becomes the future. a future where you grew a dream into a reality. it's waiting for you. mere minutes away. the future is nothing but power and it's all yours. the all new godaddy airo. get your business online in minutes with the power of ai. ♪ >

the real rates have gone up while valuations have gotten stretched. thing that will break or cause concern is if earnings revisions will become negative with the huge cap ex coming. the depreciation bill is coming and it will not be met with sufficient revenues. that will lead to growth earnings challenges. microsoft earnings have been revised down for the last six months. in fact, microsoft under performed significantly last year. that is the largest a.i. spender. that's possibly a cause of concern for other a.i. spenders as well. the multiples are high, earnings revisions are negative and real rates are high. not a good combination. >> overall, you are cautious of global equities, yet you are head of equities. i have to ask you where's the performance going to come from in 2025? any part of the market you highlight as a potential gainer for the year? >> you have to go stock specific and i'd yoe diosyncratic story. you would have to say i'm cautious on global equities. with that said, i think like japan is probably still cheap. the yen depression has

that is the lead, valuations are so high, on the men's side.lead, is it very shallow pool of there is a very shallow pool of who have liquid order write those order to buy in a majority in order to buy in a majority stake of those teams, so you need some institutional and some private investment and some private equity to unlock some of that value, for value, particularly for families. if we are doing that pratessianai men’s ieeei wthinkthwewrwewwiwsw w w w wthwianthwewrwewiwswawnwoppowrtunity w w w w iéthink there is an opportunity do it at women's level iéthink there is an opportunity well. it women's level iéthink there is an opportunity well. it are nen's level izthink there is an 0 o ' i well. it en's el izthink there is an cog-l fig well. it 1, m 1, fromthe w w from the fawrwi w just from thefan experience you want to come to game and be excited w wnba w w wnba has w w wnba has some of the most the wnba has some of the most games, that have jzt wthe teed w wthe lead for a while followed the lead for a while say it is pure basketball, ggygi

. >> on the valuation. >> yeah. >> and what has happened. >> in today's session. >> it's interesting to. >> sort of see the. digestion phase of it all. yesterday was just puke everything. right. but today it's like, well, who will benefit in this new sort of regime where things get faster, things are. >> more efficient. >> and it looked like software. i mean, software is. >> a big winner. >> no doubt. >> and i think. >> that was. >> something that was really clear. >> if you're just. >> you know, like taking. >> a look around yesterday, there were. >> some things. >> that, you know, everything opened down. it was. >> not particularly pretty picture. i think it really showed what investors. >> you know, kind of how concentrated this trade was. >> we've been. talking about it. there's been. >> very few ways to play it. >> enterprise software. >> has. >> really underperformed. >> over the last couple of years relative to, let's say, the. >> large hyperscalers. >> and. >> then those. >> you know. broadcom nvidia, marvell joined the party late last year. so i think that you. >> have to ki

that's really what's created. >> this big. >> valuation difference. short run really changing those things. but there's no question that you should have your eggs in different baskets because the us market is priced to perfection, because we're in a near perfect environment and the rest of the world is priced not on a disaster, but on the brink of disaster. and so they're all just about where they're supposed to be. and it wouldn't surprise me if we finally get this rotation, although i'm not smart enough to time that. >> well, i would say, thank god the stock market's up because who can afford eggs? >> well, right. and peter, i was just going to say in terms of potential, you know, headwinds. the only one i'm keeping an eye on and i don't know how close you follow this is deep tech. because all of these valuations built up in nvidia and all the power stocks and all the data center and all the compute that's going into that is under on the premise that we need these mega investments in order to stay at the leading edge. and if that's not true, and if

you have seen valuations expand a lot. the thing to watch is with ipos there's a lot banking on this. investment banking revenue starting to come back in full swing. we certainly saw recovery last year. we're well below where we were in 2021. the good news on that the ipo index has actually outperformed the p 500 by 20% over the last two years. so it's sort of like jumping into the deep end and saying the water is all clear, that you've seen some of these stocks do well coming right out of the gate. >> last point, stephanie, you like the space. >> i do. i think i think interest rates and the direction of them, potential direction of them, and the difference between tens and twos will continue to help them. >> all right. good weekend everybody. thanks for being here. stephanie guild, cameron dawson, we'll talk to you soon. ayaka yoshioka joining. joining us as well. all right. to kristina partsinevelos. now for a look at the biggest names moving into this friday. close christina. >> well, scott, president trump's rather not

we still think that you have to remain valuation disciplined and if you start bumping up above those 2020, 2021 peak valuations it's likely a good time to underwrite that position. >> speak pg of profit making machines, much to the ire of some at this point, health care is one of three sectors over the last month that's positive and you have the health care conference going on in san francisco and there's deal making and always a lot of buzz at that event. is this the moment after disappointment to buy some of the stocks? >> we pitched it one of our sectors for 2025. when you're a cannot rarian it just means you're wrong and about to be right. it's been a bad call in the last few months and i did a bunch of ai for health care, academic work last year and got mesmerized by the potential for productivity. all of the grizzled veteran healthcare guys from san francisco this week said i've heard that story before and you're a newbie that's excited. maybe the truce is in between. i feel like the market took the election cycle and said i'm going to totally screw the estimates in the health

this is not a significant factor in our valuation methodology. >> oh, of course.ut i think the whole street implicitly understands whatever the dpand for tesla today has a lot to do with the demand for them will be down the road and again, how -- if you think that literally the consumer auto ownership story does not matter and this is all just a binary on robo taxi, i guess that's a different story. >> i think they both matter, right? to be clear, the deliveries they -- the deliveries they post and are able to make to buyers are certainly important. there's also a lot of sentimental movement here, right? this was like a 2% or less maybe -- i forget exactly, maybe 1.5% miss on deliveries for a quarter of the year. does that alone drive 6, 7% unwinding the stock price? that's, you know, i would argue there's more in to it, people perhaps exaggerate the meaning of these things and just sort of -- that momentum gets rolled forward a little bit. you know, i think perhaps our latest review of fsd revealing some still weak areas of the technology may be a part of the fac

global went public last week, but with a much lower valuation than first expected. i'm going to take a closer look at the market's newest energy name and of course, all your calls. rapid fire in tonight's edition of the lightning round. edition of the lightning round. so stay with cramer. ehh... hmm. oh, that's very, uh... - right? - mmm... this store doesn't have agentforce, so an ai agent didn't tip off the stylist as to what i might actually wear. - yes. - oh. that's a commitment. [glass knocked] hey bud! whaddaya think? you know, people can see you out here. ha ha ha ha, yeah, yeah, right, right, ha ha. love you, too. agentforce helps retailers prevent fashion fails. it's what ai was meant to be. ♪♪ do. >> make our new sugar free. >> your everyday sidekick. >> own your ritual. >> your way. >> with liquid. >> i've. >> there have. >> been no new treatments for osteosarcoma in 40 years. this rare pediatric cancer starts in the bones and often spreads to the lungs. there are no treatments when it spreads to the lungs. now, os therapies. oh, stocks on the nyse. ameri

but but lofty valuations have to. >> be you have. >> to be deconstructed. if we're. >> talking about something like the s&p 500. and you know, if you look at the mac seven you know those are you know those those have price earnings ratios or multiples that that are in the 30s. look at. >> the. >> rest of the market. you know those multiples are like. >> in. >> the teens. and so you know like overall like you know it seems like the market has a very high valuation. >> but if you break. >> it down into sort of component parts, it makes sense. why why the mac has such a high valuation and the rest of the market is. >> sort of normal. >> so, you know. >> i think we're watching it. >> but but i. >> don't think concern is the right word. all right. what do. >> you think about just some of the moves we saw from tech. tech getting a big bounce from the stargate project announcement. we've seen those stocks pull back. it really seems like investors, they just kind of go back and forth on their view. do they want to see a broadening. do they want to continue to ride