greg davis, the chief investment officer at vanguard and then at 3:00 tim buckley, the ceo of vanguard we'll be talking about fund flows and what he sees for stocks in 2019 scott, back to you >> bob, look forward to it bob pisani there a couple interesting issues to wrap this up wondering whether more volatility or what will happen next year related to passive versus active. a return to more active management and it has a better year and also the fact there were net buyers. buying the dip hasn't worked for the first time in almost forever it feels like, right >> the first time in eight, nine years. >> since 2008. >> i don't think that behavior on the passive side will change anytime soon unless you were to see a significant decline in the market in 2019 in 2019 if you get the decline in the marketplace you're going to see active management come back once again in particular not just on the equity side but the credit side. >> there is a trend with institutional investors for portfolio management i've noticed moving away from market cap indices because they don't like getting apple a big

vanguard chief economist joe davis from pennsylvania., apple tumbles into their territory and worries over demand for the eyes on. we will see if they can turn things around. this is bloomberg. ♪ shery: "daybreak: asia this is haidi: could the iphone -- could the era of the iphone be over? shares have tanked amid concerns consumers are no longer clamoring for the product. ian king joins us now from san francisco. listening to concerns about this for the last little while, but something has flipped the switch at least in the investors mentality right now. >> you are right. we have seen these kinds of things before. we have seen apple suppliers cut their forecast. but really we have not seen as many do it in such a precise manner like we have seen right now. to be sure, apple could have a great holiday season, but at this moment based on quite a lot of evidence, it is not looking particularly good. haidi: not looking particularly good. we have been trying to predict where peak iphone saturation would be. have we reached that point? ian: we

one of the products that bucks the trend here is vanguard.guard does a good job of getting people to do passive investing and keeping it there. but there are other areas of the field where people buying those etf's are losing money from the money weighted returns. -- money weighted rate of return. so the difference here is education. we spend all our time educating investors' advisors as to how difficult it is to invest actively. so if you are going to be picking exchange traded funds to manage a broad array of asset classes globally, that is going to take a ton of time for you to commit in order to be not only understanding what you're getting into, but understanding your behavioral flaws, making sure you're going to be executing religiously time after time. scarlet: in addition to educating in your advisory work, you also have an etf, a risk parity etf. explain how it works. rodrigo: we talk about passive investing all the time. it has generally been -- it depends on your home country, right? home country bias. you could go global, maybe ma

. >>> plus the ceo of investment john vanguard. we'll get his thoughts on the market volatility plus bit coin, the fed and much more. >> i'm in for kelly evans. shares as tariffs take a toll on china. we'll take a look at the broader impact on american auto stocks >> we'll discuss what the break up means for the dow the closing bell begins right now. >>> stacks bouncing back dow was down at the low. it is up by 36 points. positive territory for the dow >> the nasdaq and russell are both lower it can close positive they would be higher. let's dive into the two big stories that are driving the market action. china and the fed >> at the g20 summit larry said there was a possibility for a breakthrough to end the tariff back and forth between the two countries but said it would only happen if chien dna gives a lot ground he said the united states is better positioned to with stand a prolonged fight. he also took off on gm and decision to close five plants and layoff 14,000 workers which angered president trump yesterday. here is larry o

headquarters with chief investment officer greg davis. >> hello there vanguard will be releasing itsglobal economic outlook, 2019 economic outlook next week, but we have a preview for you. we have greg davis here to talk about that larry kudlow said we're hoping to a trade deal. we saw the market rally on that. your number one risk factor, trade tensions along with greater expectations of tightening by the fed. suppose we do get some trade deal here. what's going to be the effect on the markets? >> i think what you'll see is you'll see this dark cloud lifted off the market from an uncertainty standpoint there's been this uncertainty because of the trade tension and it's had an impact in terms of widening credit spreads on the corporate side, high yield spreads sxr put a depressing factor in terms of equity returns and things of that nature it's been a bit of an overhang >> you said your second great risk is the fed overly aggressively tightening. you think they're going to stop near 3%. that's still 75 to 100 basis points more. a lot on our air saying december they should stop one mo

only from discover. with lower expense ratios than comparable vanguard funds. and we're now offering zero expense ratio index funds. that's value you'll only find at fidelity. ♪ one thing leads another that's value you'll only find at fidelity. [ready forngs ] christmas? no, it's way too early to be annoyed by christmas. you just need some holiday spirit! that's it! this feud just went mobile. with xfinity xfi you get the best wifi experience at home. and with xfinity mobile, you get the best wireless coverage for your phone. ...you're about to find out! you don't even know where i live... hello! see the grinch in theaters by saying "get grinch tickets" into your xfinity x1 voice remote. a guy just dropped this off. he-he-he-he. >>> well, president trump confirms that the united states has the audio recording that allegedly depicts the murder of saudi journalist jamal khashoggi. >> it's a suffering tape it's a terrible tape i've been fully briefed. there's no reason to hear it i said should i? they said there's no reason. i know exactly everything that went on

of implementation of cannabis, and being on the vanguard is no easy task. you really are building a plane as you fly it. you all have done an incredible job of doing that. and in particular, i want to applaud your commitment to equity and to taking the time that it takes to get that right. and i think toeing the line in that -- i just appreciate that leadership. i would say overall, i would agree with all of the comments that my fellow commissioners have made about the process. i hear where people are coming from about the issue of timing. at the same time, i have full faith in the department of cannabis and i also appreciate recognizing our role in the process. i also want to appreciate commissioner melgar's comments around education. implementation has to go hand-in-hand with making sure that all of the folks who live in san francisco, especially our young ones understand cannabis and that we are balancing both the use with family-friendly uses that our safety can be a place for all of these things. i also wanted to say that i am supportive of the amendme

vanguard's very easy to get to i want to go with warren buffett, greatest investor why? warren buffett, what am i going to do? argue with him no more excuses. i'm helping you form the necessaries investing strategies you need at all stages of your life tonight from young to old i'm going to meet you where you are and take you where you need to be. on "mad money" tonts we're kicking things off by beginning in the crib. here are the two stocks you should be buying to give a newborn a much needed head start. and teenagers typically have a lot to learn there's an important investing lesson everyone can get from them as well i'll fill you in. >>> my definitive guide to where your money should be sitting at any age. stay with cramer >> don't miss a second of "mad money" follow@jim cramer on twitter. #madtweets send jim an e-mail or give us a call at 1-800-743-cnbc miss something mpeople tell me all the time i madmoney.cnbc.com.t job, the riskiest job. the consequences underwater can escalate quickly. the next thing i know, she swam off with the camera. it's lats mine! i want t

alright, let me see. with lower expense ratios than comparable vanguard funds.ro expense ratio index funds. that's value you'll only find at fidelity. ♪ one thing leads another >>> trump watch tuesday, november 13th, 2018. let's start tonight with the simple notion of american government. it's all about limits. it's about keeping any one person or any one part of the government from having absolute power. we had the experience of having a king and decided that's not what we're after, and now we've got our 45th president who seems to have a problem with this setup, the system of checks and balances, of keeping even our president limited in power, especially our president. president trump didn't like it when the fbi went digging for information about his lawyer michael cohen. he doesn't like it when the press does its job of reporting information about him. he doesn't like it when the attorney general files justice department guidelines and recuses himself from the russian probe. he doesn't like it when a state, florida, follows its rule of counting all votes. in

they are the vanguard of germany's navy during that war, and to have three of them here is really quitenique. the wreck that we were diving today is the site of the bayern turrets. so the bayern battleship, when it was salvaged, the four turrets were left on the seabead, and they're pretty remarkable to see. this was the last military action of world war i, and any time we see the wreck or any of the wrecks, we're reminded exactly what that means in history. my name isjames and i'm a scuba—diving instructor here in orkney. snorkels in and let's go out... it is maybe one of the best sites in the world to come and dive these types of ships and be this accessible at this depth as well/ you can come to the scapa flow and visit the churchill barriers, having never dived before,m and complete your first ever dive on world war i and world war two ships that were sunk as part of the war. scapa flow allows us to dive the whole year round more or less. it's a natural harbour, it's protected on many sides by land. you could spend weeks and weeks and weeks diving the wrecks here, they're that big,

that is why vanguard does not have an index fund for everything. they have an active fund.hey realized long ago if you try to index high-yield, you will have inferior results over time. scarlet: but a lot of people point out that hyg and the index that it tracks is probably not the best benchmark. perhaps there is a better one. people say that hyg is a little bit like the ag index. is a little bit too easy of a benchmark. what do you think? gershon: i think that hindsight is 2020. that's certainly not what they were saying when they launched the fund, they were using the benchmark that is the most appropriate. now that it has not done well, they are saying it is not the best benchmark. the reality is that active management does work in fixed income. one of the things we are doing as a firm is we are so confident in that that we are taking our u.s. high-yield fund and changing the fee structure to be one where you actually only pay index fees less than the etf's, if we don't outperform and only pay above-average fees when we do outperform. scarlet: so you are neutralizing on

my teammates is dinosaurs or darwinian biology you have big lumbering herbivores called etf's or vanguardmutual funds that munch away, and they are creating these opportunities which are snapped up by the lesser actors who are going around arbitrage -- the velociraptors that are going around arbitraging and being activist with polly run funds. that is what we are very slowly moving toward. we do need, at this point, the market ecology or whatever you want to call it is incompleted. i am a long-term fan of passive investing. i do think it is having a negative effect. scarlet: we are in transition mode. our thanks to john authers and bloomberg etf reporter rachel evans. great discussion. coming up, ben carlson discusses where a potential bubble is with indexing. things that may be causing indexing. and one etf that caught our attention this week is the u.s. natural gas fund after a price and volume surge. this came as natural gas forced -- sort the most in nine years, climbing to the highest mark since february of 2019. you can find this and all of our other charge on the bloomberg at gtv <

u're seeing members of congress kind of the vanguards who helped prop up this majority. the randyou hulkburnse starting to see them get in trouble. it's fascinating wat the arc of the republican party. robert: when you think of beto o'rourke, against ted cruz, how is the immigration issue playing in texas? >> i don't know if beto o'rourke is you're going to bring a whole bunch of new people into the process that have never been part of the -- especially a midterm electorate. in some cases they might notve urned out in any election if you can increase your base vote, that's what's going to put you over the top. interesting enough where beto o'rourke is doing best, at least when you look at the state and theongressional districts, he's doing best in those inner ringban affluent districts which are less diverse. and not as strong in some of the rio grande area which is more heavily latino. but this is going to be a fascinating discussion among democrats about d we pick the candidate who can motivate and turn out those new voters like georgia,florida, texas i they success? o

they are the vanguard of germany's navy during that war, and to have three of them here is really, is re really, is unique. direct that we were diving today is the sight of the bayern turrets. so the bayern battleship, when it was salvaged, the turrets were left under the sea. and they are pretty remarkable to see. my name is james and i am a scu ba—diving instructor here see. my name is james and i am a scuba—diving instructor here in orkney. it is maybe one of the best sites in the world to come and dive these types of ships and to be this accessible at this depth as well and you can come to scapa flow and visit the barriers, having never dive before. in dive and world war i and world war two ships that were sunk as part of the war. —— you can dive. scapa flow as part of the war. —— you can dive. sca pa flow allows as part of the war. —— you can dive. scapa flow allows us to dive pretty much the whole year round more less, it isa much the whole year round more less, it is a natural harbour. it is protected and many sides by land. you could spend weeks and weeks and weeks diving the

. >> we have the eyes of many companies looking at us and e've always been a vanguard company. if we don't lead the way, nobody else will. >> google's ceot spoke ae "the new york times" deal book conference and he said he actually supports these walkouts. >> moments like this showe do not always get it right so we are committed to doing atter. listening to employees. that's partly why today is nkportant. i there are concrete steps coming out in terms of what we can do better. >> hedded this clearly has been a difficult time throughout the company. . >>> good news for folks saving for retirement. beginning in 2019, the irs saysn thel contribution limit for employees who participate i0 k plans will increase to $19,000. that's up from $18,500. that limit will always app to 403-bs and thrift savings most 457 plans. and the limit on the contributions toou.r.a. as will increase from $5,500 to $6,000. >>> well, open i enrollmen officially under way for the roughly 11 million americans who buy health insurance through the federal marketplace. and if consumers looking at the options, pa

the world and i can even also put it take them the scope of the kind of political content in the vanguardus and. gave much on in on and so fan pages and also all of us done. of course and. their common ancestors found in business lloyd said he had taken. to the engine. come fitted the interaction and. destroyed it in one thousand nine hundred sixty the german academic exchange service opened its second foreign office of the post-war era in cairo egypt using the promise of free higher education germany specifically courted arab students for its universities with the aim of supplementing its ranks of white collar workers and professionals who had been decimated in the war. i met had come up to lead the shortly after i arrived here he lives in the suburbs of cologne and the scene as a mentor to young arab journalists in the country. he came here to study economics in one nine hundred fifty eight. million a lot of money i couldn't. use it for forty. different money. to move a lot of money so they say and he said very bad you can't feed yanni. file and be the wiser that out of an emotional tug

the vanguard of the caravan of people most of them from central america heading through mexico has arrived in through one hour and they've been here now some of them for almost a week you can see behind me the center it's a school sense where they're being housed this bleeping in the rough they're getting some donations of clothes and food some care from the city authorities but i think it's fair to say that as a good thing we're often on arrived here the welcome. we left will and then the mexican towns that they were passing for a couple of days or so there was no internation here of clothes and help to get them on their way here in the city a few one where the lead has become concerned that they're going to be here for months instead of for the price this is really unfortunate before they get to the united states the welcome has been less will more cautious there's been more accusations there are people here with addictions there are people here that think of a magic that's coming from the city's authorities now of course we're right next to the united states border and there from the go

some of these tablet players who've been entering the robo advisory space firms like black rock or vanguard but what's really interesting when it comes to wrobel it really plays in the bigger team of a new topic that's becoming very trendy which is financial health which for example i was reading recently that fifty seven percent of americans don't have four hundred dollars in savings in case an emergency happens and actually that's quite sad actually and this is you know to the same effect that you know we exist size for our physical health or we meditate for our mental health hold we're seeing a big trend towards using fin tech tools like robo advisors or p. to p. in order to actually improve our financial health and again this is a great example of the benefits the fin tech has not only on the financial services industry but also on individuals you mentioned henri a few companies but i want to ask you and maybe the answer is all of the above but which are the biggest companies looking at. you mentioned facebook there's amazon ali a ten cent which are making this sort of major moves out t

that means of vanguard tech fund are more weighted than they were before. --have seen bgg outflows vanguard funds tend to be where the stickier money is because they are cheaper. that happening there suggests this is not something just affecting trade, but wider sentiment about the companies. jason: maybe tech from a sentiment will get a breather today as all eyes go to retail. let's talk about what we have seen so far, luke. if you look at the board. that is a lot of red and it is pretty meaningful, especially with target and kohl's down almost 6%. a surprise given what we were initially seeing in the headlines. what you make of this retail selloff? luke: it shows how much the bar has changed for these retailers over the past year. you see that in terms of a very near miss for target, still a mess. merger pressure on both sides. s, which is of lowe getting hammered. you should see some of the things the ceo of merit his health has said. court exit -- for execution, poor management. the optimistic take is this is the kitchen sink quarter. in terms of etf, i

it's the largest economy in gdp terms by any estimates and it still looked to as the sort of vanguard of the growth and living standard improvements. i certainly believe in that model into overtime it has already but will continue to adopt a lot of the positive aspects of the western system. >> host: you diagnose what we see as a major economic problem. in the jobless underclass the last several years that suggests there might be 800 million. in the school was estimating 47% of jobs in the united states would be gone because of the risk being eliminated because of technology in 20 years so how does the policy response to the risk. it was to the evolution in the workforce in the united states and the agriculture where the 1900 was 60% of the american workforce was working in agriculture. the low skilled worker individually potentially even higher skilled workers. demographic shifts, enormous challenge in the past option of the headwinds i should point out were actually driving the economic growth but now we are in a world where there is a concern of the world's population growing at a

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he knows the united states is repairing to launch vanguard. the news that broke the day before as he was driving has shocked him. fired aet union has rocket through some location in asia, putting the sputnik into space. as the miles past, abbey kept hearing details. the sputnik was 23 inches in diameter, weighing 124 pounds. it is small enough to fit in the but it isis olds joining compared to anything anybody else is considering. .t is circling the earth it is flying as far north as alaska and as far south as antarctica. it has been tracked all over the world. abbey knows what this means. if the soviets possessed giant rockets, missiles that are capable of flinging bongs -- bombs, he is troubled. as a pilot, he is fascinated. hearing on the radio that sputnik would be visible to montana residence, he has pulled off to watch. as he glances at his watch, he sees it, moving from northwest to southeast. abbey has seen shooting stars before. this is different. this light in the sky remains steady. this is a satellite. he is stunned and surprised b

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. >> he's fabulous any sense that we've had tim cook call for regulation, you've been at the vanguard saying facebook is not as customer centric. do they need a big change? do they need someone at the top or chairman who understands the importance of the customer as opposed to the data? >> well, jim, you know that every company has to hold themselves to a new level of trust. and if your brand is not about trust you're going to have customer issues, and you can see that in that brand, but you can also see their executives are walking out, employees are walking out. and that happens with a lot of companies in tech right now. we've had a lot of walkouts this quarter, jim and the reason why is because it's kind of a message to the executives, it's time to transform. and let me tell you why that is. in technology, over the last two decades, the most important thing has been the idea, that is the best idea wins that has been what gets you funded, how you grow your company, your highest value, the best idea wincs, no longer true. the current highest value is trust. if trust is not your highe

eastern later today we have vanguard ceo tim buckley joining us on "closing bell" in a cnbc exclusive this afternoon at 3:00 p.m. eastern >> started the morning talking about the president's comments and how the markets have learned to fade them fairly well 18 hours, 16 hours after he talked about further tariffs, basically unchanged. >> the market was testing yesterday's bounds so far we're holding it. see the nasdaq 100 turning positive semiconductors up 1% it shows you there may be a little something more behind that bounce from yesterday >> yeah, absolutely. the semis are notable because they started the day lower >> even apple is only down less than half a percent at this point. >> the s&p is higher again, too, by two points. >> we'll see what sales force says after the bell. let's get to the judge >>> carl, thanks i'm scott wapner stocks are seesawing as more investors are jittery. it's noon. this is "the halftime report." >>> on this eve of the key speech by fed chief powell, we're also daysaway from what could be a major turning point in the trade battle with china today how t

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this is a stronghold for the gop, kind of the vanguards of their majority and they're having to spend millions of dollars to save their races, and republican organizations are having to spend money. leave aside the senate race, exact down ballot in a way we never expected. >> everybody stand by for a second because i want to go to missouri. that is where president trump has been turning up the heat on incumbent claire mccaskill. he's headed to missouri tonight to help out josh hawley. the president tweeting no matter what she says, senator claire mccaskill will vote against us in the great state of missouri. nbc road warrior, morgan radford is joining us from st. charles, and morgan, listen, it's not surprising to hear that from president trump but it seems like other republicans in missouri may not be feeling as confident as they have been about hawley this morning. what are you hearing? >> reporter: -- morgan rad gourradford, we're going to come back to you. jordan, what is your sense about where republicans are when it comes to enthusiasm or optimism about josh hawley. it seems it

introducing fidelity stock and bond index funds with lower expense ratios than comparable vanguard fundswe now offer the industry's first true zero expense ratio index funds directly to investors. plus, we have fidelity mutual funds with zero minimum investment. how many other firms give you this much value? absolutely zero. ♪ why don't they do what they say ♪ ♪ say what they mean ♪ baby, one thing leads to another ♪ >>> that's it for this hour. "deadline white house" with nicolle wallace starts right now. >> hi, everyone. it's 4:00 in new york. donald trump has finished his homework, and he did it all by himself. the president announcing today that he has completed his written responses to robert mueller and that he did it without assistance. >> my lawyers don't write answers. i write answers. i was a

introducing fidelity stock and bond index funds with lower expense ratios than comparable vanguard funds now offer the industry's first true zero expense ratio index funds directly to investors. plus, we have fidelity mutual funds with zero minimum investment. how many other firms give you this much value? absolutely zero. ♪ why don't they do what they say ♪ ♪ say what they mean ♪ baby, one thing leads to another ♪ >>> we have an update on cnn's lawsuit against the white house after the president ordered the secret service to revoke the hard pass, the press pass of white house reporter jim acosta. after hearing arguments from both sides the federal judge overseeing the suit said he will decide by 3:00 p.m. tomorrow whether to temporarily restore acosta's access. in that interview with the daily caller today president trump weighed in. "we'll see how the court rules. is it freedom of the press when somebody comes in and starts screaming questions and won't sit down? i really think that when you have guys like acosta, i think they're bad for the country." here's another reminder of the exc

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