victor. >> arlette saenz for us, thank you. >> here to discuss, former chairman of the white house council of economic advisers under president obamagood to have you back. let's start with this assertion from the president that recession is not inevitable. a few things are inevitable. but do you expect that it is very likely, unlikely over the next 18 months, what's your assessment? >> well, i think he's right. it's definitely not inevitable, and if we got positive news, say, on the virus or if the war did not continue to get worse, we might get some beneficial supply shocks of the opposite form that we've been taking blows for the last two years on supply chain getting deeply messed up, and driving prices up. that said, when the fed is raising rates and raising them at this kind of speed, you know, fastest rate of increase in a number of decades, you always got to be thinking about the possibility of recession. the majority of the recessions in the united states have been caused by the fed raising interest rates faster than the economy can handle, so you definitely shouldn't rule it out. i don't know that it's more likely than not