lisa: victoria fernandez, jim keenan, and lotfi karoui.till ahead, a host of central bank rate decisions. let's see what the fed has to say. that situation coming up next. ♪ lisa: i am lisa abramowicz, in for jonathan ferro. this is "bloomberg real yield." time now for the final spread, the week ahead, coming up, cpi data followed by jobless claims. starting with the fed and the chair powell news conference on wednesday, then it is the bank of england's turn on thursday, and finally, rounding out with the bank of japan on friday. still with us here, we are happy to say, victoria fernandez, jim keenan, and lotfi karoui. a lot of noise around the fed meeting in particular. victoria, do you want to weigh in on how much he could bring forward with expectations as a result of today? victoria: i'm not sure they are going to do a lot based on today's number alone. what have powell and the rest of the fed president's been saying? they want to see clear evidence of things changing. they want to see it over time. obviously, the cpi being higher toda

joining me on this debate is victoria fernandez at global investments.mie dimon or marko >> dom, look, i never want to go against jamie dimon when it comes to these things, but marko -- we're more in his camp than jamie dimon at this point you talked about the uncertainty in regards to the fed path will we get a soft landing or what do earnings look like at the same time, you are looking at an economy with a strong labor market. household balance sheets look good corporate balance sheets, although we see margin compression, balance sheets look good as well you typically don't have a recession with these factors in play we don't see a recession like marko said in 2022 second half of the year for the fed will start to work through the economy with the lag perhaps that is a probability. we see more volatility and perhaps a slowdown, but not recession. >> if that is the case, slowdown or volatility, does that mean folks should be out buying dips in the market? >> we like looking at opportunities in the market. we're not saying every time there is a full bag

across mark global investments -- let's bring in victoria fernandez.n can we expect to see some signs of a bottom in the stock market, and what would that look like? victoria: looking for a bottom is a very difficult task, and timing is even harder to do. but there are signs we would be looking for. you want to look at more technical signs, you want to see the vix get about 40, he went to see the trend readings go better. the put-call ratio at one. and pmi's need to bottom. european pmi's are coming down, but they are not in contraction territory so i don't think they are bottoming. the other item we want to look for is the fed or other central banks making a more dovish event. you can see from the collection of clips you just played, we are nowhere near that level. for us, i don't think we have hit the bottom yet, we have quite a bit of volatility. we will have these bear market rallies through the rest of the year, but we see the potential for more downside. shery: in this environment where we are not sure where we are headed, where consumption could

joining us now victoria fernandez, crossmark mobile investments. -- global investments. are you buying tech stocks yet? victoria: look at how far the nasdaq is down and look at individual stocks in the nasdaq and how some of these individual stocks have come down. in -- nvidia down 40% year to date. but looking at a company growing with their data center, there gaming. there is a lot of companies with strong balance sheets out there who have taken a significant hit as yields have moved higher. i think you can go in and be opportunistic and add names. it is not just in the tech space. you can do it across the board. but you have to choose quality companies. don't just go all-in on one sector. lisa: you do not believe the recession talk, believe the u.s. can avoid one. why? victoria: probability of a recession went up over the last 48 hours or so, but i do not think we will have a recession this year. i still think the underlying fundamentals in the economy, if we look at household balance sheets -- i know we have gas prices going higher, and that has taken a big hit, but w

victoria fernandez of crossmark joins us next on this program.loomberg. ♪ as a business owner, your bottom line is always top of mind. so start saving by switching to the mobile service designed for small business: comcast business mobile. flexible data plans mean you can get unlimited data or pay by the gig. all on the most reliable 5g network. with no line activation fees or term contracts... saving you up to $500 a year. and it's only available to comcast business internet customers. so boost your bottom line by switching today. comcast business. powering possibilities.™ mom: how was school? dad: wow! ♪ vo: music can help you express how you're feeling. when you can't find the language, find the lyrics. >> i think the fed's forecasts are so remarkably optimistic. >> all these numbers they threw out are fantasyland. the unemployment rate is fantasyland. the rate at which inflation is going to come down is fantasyland. >> if he is like global inflationary pressures have the upper hand. >> it will take a long time to impa

crossmark chief market strategist victoria fernandez. the biggest question that clients are asking is the biggest question that corporate ceos like elon musk is asking. he now comes out today saying he is aiming to cut around 10% of stallard -- of salaried staff from the company, saying he has a really bad feeling about the economy. how are you thinking about if this is an idiosyncratic tesla issue, or are you worried this is a broader ev, broader economic issue? >> thank you for having me. we were surprised by the headline simply because tesla is in uber growth mode. we know there is a lot of capacity coming online. they need support staff to support that growth. the headline came as a bit of a surprise to us. yes, we are getting more questions from investors on the risk of recession, but tesla and the auto industry broadly right now, the primary issue is not demand at the moment, but supply. this is a supply constrained industry. anything produced will be sold. when you look at u.s. auto sales, 12.8 billion in may, much lower than you

joining me, victoria fernandez, shah gilani, sara constant. ctoria, everyone has the economist hat today, depends on where this economy goes, right? >> that's right. i mean i have a colleague over at raymond james always said don't confuse imminent with inevitable and i think that is what we have to look at here. is recession inevitable? yes. but is it imminent? no. it is not imminent right now. i think that is because yes there is going to be some slower growth. we know that, we're seeing that but there are some countertrends here in the market, charles f we look at commodity prices, look at copper, that is coming down. look at delivery times. you talked about supply chains. those are improving. look at jobless claims are moving up a little bit which will help wage pressures that should help a little bit on the inflation front. when you combine that with the fact the could not super is still spending even a little bit less the market can handle what it's seeing right now if the central banks continue to go full speed later this year as financi

buying a couple of names today, amid the pull back let's bring in victoria fernandez, at cross mark globalctoria, before we declare you a wild child buying all of this technology let's point out that you've already been adding to some more value names including energy, including companies like cvs, including companies like lockheed martin. >> you're absolutely right because we think this market is continue to be quite volatile for the rest of the year so you want to have a well positioned portfolio, a balanced portfolio. so are we buying some tech names? we are we're not saying go into the tech sector and buy everything there. what we're saying is look for those quality tech names strong balance sheets, strong business models, you look at a name like nvidia, it is down 48% year-to-date they have had strong earnings. their a data center business is continuing to grow as is their gaming section and so they're going to continue to do well this is a name where you could go in, buy a little bit and into your portfolio with prices down where they are because, look, tyler, when you look at tech s

joining me is victoria fernandez, and managing cfo [inaudible] gibbs. let me start with you victoria. >> we are out there buying for our clients. even they are longer term investors, we need to have -- even though they are the longer term investors, we need to have the opportunity with the volatility going on is being tactical in these portfolios. we are not saying this is the bottom, not saying one particular sector is better than others, not trying to time the market, we are trying to go with names that have good balance sheets, good business models and start putting some of those in the portfolio and building position. >> charles: aaron, you told me a couple months ago you were getting pressure from clients. you pulled back, went to a lot of cash. you've been picking spots. i think the word victoria used is tactical. you have been tactical yourself to a degree. i think it's worked. are you having any conversations with people about hey, where do you think the market may be a year, two year, five years from now and will we look back at this moment as a

dagen: joining me chief market strategist victoria fernandez. now the answer to this, how much debt is behind these collapsing assets? >> yeah, you're right. we don't have a clear picture of what's going on there, dagen. but you look at the world of crypto and what we have seen as of late and the demise there, it's really tied a lot to what's going on with the nasdaq. there's a really strong correlation there. you mentioned the nasdaq down 4.7% yesterday. so i don't think it's a huge surprise to see some of that come down. we are not investors in crypto but when you look at a lot of the analysts, they focus on the area. just like we say in the market there was going to be extreme volatility this year in 2022, you see the same expectations within the crypto space even when you're looking at things like a coin base that's not necessarily the crypto itself but companies associated with it. they've had a really tough go as well. so i think it's one of those areas. it's a risk on type of asset. you have to be prepared for the volatility that comes wit

let's bring in victoria fernandez. market is not all technology, victoria, but we sure do love it. investors love it. it gets a lot of attention the article du jour in the journal is tech's dominant decade in the market fades does that mean it will keep fading or does that mean, wow, everything's on sale that we loved a year ago >> joe, i would be in the latter camp on that that doesn't mean you jump in with both feet our focus with the volatility going on in the market is to focus on quality of the balance sheet and earnings you look at some of the high growth names in the tech space valuations have come down. names have come down you know they have strong cash flows and long-term holdings in the portfolio. you go in and buy names. microsoft and apple are still two of the largest holdings in the large cap strategy that hasn't changed. that doesn't mean we don't go in and buy other names. we like the old school names you have the longer, slower growth potential with less volatility you look at intel. that has come back