e*trade from morgan stanley >>> we're now in the close "closing bell" market zone victoria fernandezl on which tech stock she prefers to nvidia. courtney ragan on the rush of retail earnings out in "overtime. mike i'm with you all a.i. all the time for better and for worse. >> it is and you see it in the disruptors and disrupted. intel down 5%. outside of a.i., potential move of selling cell service that dish is talking about. it has at&t down a few percent in the middle it's like it all kind of cancels out into again a range bound index market you did see in the afternoon a sense out there that there is also up side risk in this market if overnight you get a debt deal, if there's a little bit of an exhale from all of this tension that we've been dealing with for a while who knows what the ultimate market impact of a debt deal is going to be over weeks or months there's a sense out there that the most of the market outside the a.i. plays have been resetting lower and kind of taking some of their pain and front loading it. >> shortest end of the curve. >> yeah. >> backing off a little

we're joined by victoria fernandez. oria, every day we ask wall street's brightest minds to describe what they believe the trading day ahead is what's your word of the day? >> i think my word today is muddled. you just have a very muddled environment that we're sitting in today you see the bank crisis continuing to have its tentacles in the market. you have the fed meeting today, the ecb meeting, the rba raise rates yesterday. there's a lot of confusion in the reports coming out gdp coming out earnings doing a let ele better than expected. to me it's a muddled environment, which means you have to be very choosey when it comes to what you're doing in your portfolio. >>> let's assume a quarter point hike, a pause after. where do you start to put money to work? >> when you look at what's going on within the market, you look at the breadth of the market, which has been quite disappointing as of late and some of the factors leading the market quality is leading the market, more of the defensive nature is leading right now. fo

crossmark chief global strategist victoria fernandez.uess maybe perplexed is the wrong word but there is a lot of interesting signals, right? on one hand you get something that is bearish. another something that is bullish, how do you hash this out? >> it's combination of the two right now. you had can make a bull story, you can make a bear story recordless what you're doing but there are certain factors you always want to look at. this is one of them. charles: market breadth? is russell 3,000. number of names inside of the russell 3,000 above their 200-day moving average. remember the beginning of the year, everyone was talking about look at that participation. this is the thought, the break out some folks have theories that go back to the 1950 as, they were coming out of the woodwork. this means we're oaf to the races. what happened? >> we back at that level, 890% of the s&p names above their 200-day moving average back in early february, the s&p was around 4100. where are we now? 4100. we've got a much lower level. charles: down to 35

meantime let's bring in crossmark global investment chief market strategist victoria fernandez. ctoria, let me start with the treasury department because we're on the verge of a deal and it looks like it will go through. i'm not a big fan of it but that is neither here nor there for right now. the bottom line, once the deal is signed, treasury department needs to refill its coffers. some speculation it could be 500 billion, a trillion dollars. i'm not sure what you're modeling, but what do you think it will be and what are the implications for the economy and stock market? >> charles, treasury general account cash balance is the lowest it has been in five years. yes, they are going to have to refill that we're seeing expectations of one to 1.1 trillion of new issuance between now and the end of september but the issue we have to deal with where this is going to be funded from. i have talked about this a little bit with clients. we talked about it in our investment committee meeting here at crossmark. if those funds are coming out of reverse repos you're switching elements on the

. >>> let's bring in victoria fernandez of cross mark global investments.he things that julia mentioned. when it comes to advertising, we want to see what that looks like we did not get good news out of warner brothers and paramount. we'll see if that continues with disney looking at the subscribers, last quarter they had a loss on the international side, even though domestic grew. we want to see that. the writers strike is important. disney has a good catalog. even if there's a writers strike that goes on for a while, they can have their viewers there i'll watch "mulan" again if there's nothing else to watch. then the cost cutting as well, this is key for a few different areas. one, the dividends if they're still in that cost-cutting mode, let's see how much progress they made with the job cuts and restructuring are they going to bring that dividend back? it was thought 2023 might be the year we see that i want to hear what they have to say about that what does that mean in regards to hulu as well? options trading is telling me there could be extreme volat

joining me cross mark global investment chief market strategist victoria fernandez. , victoria, are you discounting the resolve of this market? the better earnings that we've seen? the fed maybe winding down this hiking cycle? i mean, what's he counter that right now? >> yes, i'm not ignoring these elements, charles. we do have positive news and data out there but we have to look at the other side of the equation and there are a lot of signals flashing red to us, so you look at leading economic indicators, they're down i think 10 of the last 11 months. money growth is slowing, yield curve we know all of the messages that come from the yield curve and right now we've got the entire yield curve below the fed funds rate. you add in inflation still at 5.5% on core cpi and then look at the labor market. it is weakening a little bit but it is still strong enough to support higher wages that's sticky inflation so all of these elements usually are things that we see before a recession so i don't think we can say look we're in a sustainable bull market because we have positive

victoria fernandez joins us now, chief analyst at? . -- at crossmark. ng this is idiosyncratic. do you think it is he? victoria: to an extent. don't think you will see huge losses like that in those takeovers. those are probably done. what i am concerned about is when you look at these banks, look at the end of last year, 2022. there are bank balances, the writeups they would have to do, it was 28% of their total assets for banks across the board. people were not really paying attention to that. if we go and get a commercial real estate issue coming more and more into play, that is to 25 percent for loan banks. europe is smaller than that. we combine all of that together, rates higher, and i think we have more of an issue. not global, but not idiosyncratic either. tom: i would suggest you are hardwired to this being from texas and there is more regional banks. down in texas and across the south. what i want to do is fold this into what crossmark and others have said. you allude to the milwaukee bucks, which did not work out. you don't want to exit the ca