. >> well, vince reinhart, you've xritennized the aftermath of financial crises. shot chairman really be surprised? >> not particularly. my wife carmen and i did a paper for the jackson hole symposium about a year ago, which was nothing but bad flus. bottom line, we looked at the 15 last crisis in the second half of the century and ten years after the crisis the level of gdp per capita is 15% below that predicted by the trend ten years prior to the crisis. so financial crises have long lived consequences. we always leave unfinished business. we always have a very pronounced leverage cycle and overshooting and the united states is ticked all three boxes. >> can i jump in there, daniel, because i think that regulatory overshooting is very interesting as we went into this crisis. it was as though the great depression was not something that happened a long time ago. something that happen add few years ago and went back to lessons. one is also about the importance of business confidence. you go back to that turned '36, '37, hostile environment, that has a feedback and

. >> well, vince reinhart, you've scrutinized the aftermath of financial crises.should the chairman really be surprised. >> >> not particularly. my wife, carmen, and i did a paper for the jackson hole symposium about a year and a half ago which was nothing but bad news. but the bottom line is we looked at the 15 most severe financial crisis of the second half of the 20th century, and ten years after the crisis the level of gdp per capita is 15% below that predicted by the trend ten years prior to the crisis. so financial crises have long-lived consequences. we always leave unfinished business. we always have a very pronounced leverage cycle, and we always have regulatory overshooting. and the united states has ticked all three boxes. >> can i jump in there, daniel? i think that regulatory overshooting, it is very interesting as we went into this crisis, it was as though the great depression was not something that happened a long time ago. and one of them is also about the importance of business confidence. if you go back to that period, '36-'37, if you have a host

well but they haven't fallen into the ocean and it's interesting because ken rogoff and vince and carmen reinhart and a recent paper addressed the long lasting consequences of high public debt overhang mr rogers and they found that across fifty countries twenty six periods have a debt to g.d.p. ratio of over ninety percent for at least five years one of their findings they found the real g.d.p. drops by an average of around twenty five per cent at the end of the deal leveraging episode so is it better to get it over with quickly or to drag it out like japan was the sort of course is better to get it over with japan has it has had to last decades you know the japanese stock market is down seventy five percent from where it was twenty two years ago that's not a very good model if you as me and their dad is going on and i are you can compress them with mr to the scandinavia who are at the same time twenty two years ago had the problem that japanese did they took the pain a lot of people went bankrupt they had a horrible three years but coming out of the scandinavians had a wonderful fifteen or twent

. >> well, vince reinhart, you've scrutinized the aftermath of financial crises.the chairman really be surprised? is. >> not particularly. my wife carmen and i did a paper for the jackson hole symposium about a year and a half ago that was nothing but bad news. but the bottom line is we looked at the 15 most severe financial crises of the second half of the 20th century, and ten years after the crisis the level of gdp per capita is 15% below that predicted by the trend ten years prior to the crisis. so financial be crises have long-lived consequences. we always leave unfinished business. we always have a very pronounced leverage cycle and regulatory overshooting. and the united states has ticked all three boxes. >> can i jump in there, daniel? because i think that regulatory overshooting, it is very interesting as we went into this crisis, it was as though the great depression was not something that happened a long time ago, it was something that happened a few years ago. and went back to lessons. one of them is also about the importance of business confidence. yo

vince. it's a free market, free enterprise. all right, andrew, thank you. you're the another gotten reinhart. officially deposited. >> it's not a gift. >> it not a gift? >> i'm paying you for something. you need to declare it as income and i'm not going to pay the taxes on it. you only get to keep $100 and then you better do new york state tax to somebody. >> you already cashed it. >> where should we donate it? >> the brain injury alliance of new jersey. >> is that your -- >> does he have to pay taxes on it then? >> no, he gets to take it as a charitable donation. >> you have to declare it as something you paid him for, you get to pay the taxes on it. i'm already being audited. you guys are in big trouble next year. >> i hope they don't know kno w am with my comments. >> they're going through people's trash that give money to romney. they're going through people's trash. >> he's a former three-term governor of the state of michigan and former president and ceo of the national manufacturers. he's going to say some other stuff -- >> it going to be great. >> we'll talk jobs and competitiveness w