we are back with vincent reinhart.there is all this talk about the fed that they are dismissing the attack on oil prices. really, how much longer can they say this? once you say it for a long time it starts to feel oil -- it starts to feel old. it is tough on the central bank because it pushes your goals in the opposite direction. it lowers decline and inflation. what do you do? if you look at the models that they look at, the net effect of shows it is not very big. there might be a time sequence when consumers cut back on the consumption. as long as inflation expectations are anchored, any impact on the relative price of oil is going to be transported. betty: shouldn't they be changing their economic models? is this a new europe with oil? vincent: if they change the model every time someone said it was a new era then you are in trouble. news, whichbig probably is a reason to be skeptical of the model is that it is a much bigger producer compared to models estimated starting from the 1970's onward. that is a big piece

matt: let's gauge the current economic climate with vincent reinhart. he is a visiting caller at the american enterprise institute. think you for joining us. -- thank you for joining us. let me ask you what you make of that that situation, the justice -- juxtaposition of the fed wanting to raise rates but the market betting it will not happen come even until early 2017. vincent: market views go through a wide arc. haveederal reserve's views a smaller amplitude. fed officials have to average over lots of different indicators of financial conditions. they take a more medium-term view in assessing the economic outlook. relative to when i started tightening in december, the west does not look quite as good, the rest of the world -- that is enough -- they worked so hard to convince market but his fence they would be willing to tighten. they don't want to backtrack from that. matt: a lot of indicators we some the number of distressed debt issuers is peaking at a level we have not seen since 2009. a lot of indicators we look at point for the possibility of rec