today we have a big conversation with vitaly vavryshchuk, who heads the department of macroeconomic research of the icu investment group , mr. italy, welcome to vitaya andrii so, with the title of your position, let's talk about macroeconomics, that is, about the big economy, about the movement of big money and not only money about the workforce, but let's start with what you expected a year ago. i understand that when you gave forecasts for the year 2022, they had no idea that such a big war, a big invasion was possible, were there any pessimistic forecasts that maybe you hid from the general public but meant , i can confirm that there really were no such expectations, not even in the basic pessimistic scenario and no one actually had such expectations, i refreshed my memory and looked at the forecasts given by the most respected international global investment companies and forecasting organizations and looked at about 20 organizations, none of them expected a drop in ukrainian gdp in 2022, these are forecasts as of january 21 , that is, a month before the start of the great war, and even