vonnie: that is just it. if we see a disappointment tomorrow in a lower number than economists are anticipating does that give credence to the market pricing and practically 6.5 cuts next year? brelina: i think it remains to be seen if those cuts will materialize in the base case for the fed. it makes sense for the markets to priced these cuts from a weighted probability of different scenarios. i don't have a recession in my baseline. probabilities increase for 2024, i don't see evidence of the data to believe that now. we may even get more than those cuts. as a baseline the market is probably priced too much as a weighted probability of different scenarios. it may be fair. receiving more good news on inflation tomorrow i think may lead markets to lean even more into rate cuts into q1 of next year and we may see the probability of a january cut pickup with pce. vonnie: if we compare the beginning of the year to now we are exactly where we are on the ten-year. on the two-year we are slightly richer but only a

vonnie: running with the bulls. matt, let me ask if you have the same impression, if this we can't you offguard. matt: markets can always cut you off guard. for us, this is another example that you need to lay into assets as they get cheaper. we have had the same view six months now. in june we said we think the fed is new the end of the rate hike cycle. let's start to get long-duration here. 5% on the 10 year, we set the same thing. things look even more attractive, definitely accelerate getting long-duration here. here we are, the 10 year below 4% and we are not changing our tune. we think the fed is at or near the rate hike cycle. the market is convinced six or seven cuts are coming next year. that is our base case, we think cuts are coming. our forecast is for a soft landing. we are not going to say that the fed is displayed. we are still cautious. the history on inflationary spikes is you don't just see one, you see two or three. we are sticking to our call. generally or at the end of it. and a lot of juice has

vonnie: it is actually the fed. that has to do with the market surge predicated on the lower and lower treasury supply. we do not know what will be in 2024. the supply can continue to gain. that would be difficult for the market if we do not see buyers showing up. the tenure auctions. also, if the fed does not cut rates. we are going into today's market with 81% probability that the fed will cut rates in march. right now, you have to ask yourself what does the fed think when they consumer sentiment is climbing? it is a catalyst for the consumer to continue to make purchases. either in durables or just discretionary. this is something the fed does not want to see. vonnie: what are traders refusing to give up on a march rate cut? -- why are traders refusing to give up on a march rate cut? >> traders are convinced and they have been all along. by the way, when the fomc member actually answered them and said i can see a rate cut, they went in even more full force but the fact is a matter is the question is what would be

vonnie: this is "bloomberg markets." i'm vonnie quinn.nterest rates and low office demand, still shaking the property market. $80 billion in the third quarter, the highest level in a decade. let's discuss more with lauren gilchrist and abigail doolittle. lauren, let me ask you, the fact we are seeing interest rates come off a little bit, is that going to give relief to a market that is really particularly distressed right now? >> interest rates clearly impact the vast majority of commercial real estate no matter the asset class or location, but the reality of where we are today as we are experiencing a significant structural shift in the office market because of the changing nature of work in this hybrid environment. we need succumbed to a place where we begin to recognize the actual customers for office space are truly those workers and users that occupy the space. while interest rates are an incredibly important financing consideration and buying consideration, the changes we've seen have a lot more to do with the overall composition of

vonnie: i'm vonnie quinn. the s&p 500 within one percentage point of its all-time high, continuing to drift higher today, as our bonds. the 10-year yield down to 390 a few minutes ago, 3.92 at this point. crude oil continuing to add to those gains that we saw even as the u.s. announces joint military task force with many other countries. it is not stopping shipping companies from pausing going through the suez canal. 8% of wti goes through the suez canal. in the end, 143.88. it is weakening after what was seen as a dovish meeting for the bank of japan turned a little less dovish in the sense that we didn't get any timeline for when the bank will exit negative interest rates. jon: and we will have more central-bank talk coming up on the tech front. stocks have been pretty hard recently including affirm, continuing to gain ground after the expenditure self -- it expanded to self-check out areas and walmart stores. in the e-commerce world, chewy getting a nod from an analyst at jefferies. a bullish call fueling t

vonnie: no.8.5 trillion a year ago. it is now $7.7 trillion. we have seen quite a bit of tightening. there is more to go and estimates range from late next year to mid-2026 for when it will really come into effect. particularly the system of market accounts. we are not quite sure what that could shrink to without putting a lot of pressure on the system. so far, we are seeing a little pressure on the system. sonali: and pressure that has not cascaded into other asset classes. even the two-year has been calm this week. seven basis points top to bottom, give or take. if this goes into next year, at what point do we see ripple effects into other markets? vonnie: joining us to talk about fixed income in the bond markets is joanne bianco, bondbloxx partner and investment strategist. you heard us chatting. the 10-year is back where it was at the beginning. the two-year a little lower. characterize the year. joanne: it ended up being a strong year for income investors across credit. the high-yield market

vonnie: we have been covering this story.ot just bp but we've had rerouting from companies -- from other companies. the list goes on and on. how bad does this get? >> i think that's a good question and i think the ceo of frontline was absolute right to flag this as a potential risk. one of the big surprises when the hamas-israel were started was the involvement of the houthis and their continuing involvement is of great concern. jon: we should add that it felt like some oil market participants were getting used to the reality of war. until recently, we watched deterioration in the price of crude but this is putting more of a cost of business if you will on the situation. >> i think what it's doing is emphasizing the risk involved. right now, you have a lot of supply in the sense that demand is waning. overall, oil prices, gasoline prices been declining and that has been contributing in a good way to the u.s. inflation situation and the soft landing. this injects a note of risk however. it doesn't necessarily crush those suppl

vonnie: i am vonnie quinn.lower pace than 2022 was sales from november 1 through december 24 grew at a rate of 7.6%. for more perspective on holiday spending let's bring in the president and cofounder of cardless who has issued and launch more credit cards than any bank in the last two years, so you are well-placed to know what is going on with the consumer. are you seeing different consumers and a different outlook from each? >> first of all, happy holidays and thank you for having me on. excited to be on the show today. i am the president of cardless and we help brands launch credit cards. one is a partnership with simon property group, one of the largest chains in the country today. we've seen a lot of holiday shopping in partnership with them so we want to talk more about that. vonnie: ok. give us the details. what kind of shopping are people doing and when you say simon property credit card, do you mean malls? >> yes, you can use the credit card where amex is excepted. our primary driver is shopping in the

vonnie: zach the. of write-downs and reevaluation some stuff on the books. how are companies valuing themselves these days? what kinds of metrics are most important? rob: you look at fundamental performance, which is held up well. we are not seeing widespread business performance at the top or bottom line across any sector. when we look at the private capital markets, business performance has been relatively good. the issue has been multiples. as the cost of capital has gone up, the multiples have come down. you have to put this in context that a lot of private equity groups did not write their assets way up when the public markets were moving materially up, but i agree that there will be an ongoing revaluation of some assets. vonnie: you are looking outside the u.s. as well. india, singapore, vietnam are interesting to you right now. why? rob: i think india is a particularly strong beneficiary of people wanting to the risk economically from china. there is a view that whatever geopolitical tensions th

vonnie: definitely a pleasant picture being painted. less than an hour ago, we heard from bank of canada governor saying the bank of canada thinks it is too early to consider rate cuts. or more, we are joined bind bloomberg's ottowa chief. do you feel he had to say this, markets all over the world turning toward the idea? >> yes, i think markets had hoped and expected he would follow powell's dovish. . but, he did not go that far. that said, it does mark a slightly dovish tone than we have heard from the bank of canada. the bank of commanded in all of its communications until today has commuted a line that says we are prepared to hike again or some variation on that. that language was not in this speech. he made reference to the need to be nimble, to adapt if necessary. he shifted the focus from being, how high do we need to go to how long do rates need to stay high? it was a subtle shift but we could see him now starting to talk about talking about the cuts, if that makes sense. now, he is saying the debate will continue about how long

vonnie: why?k to where we were so why not stay with the strategy that has been working for so long? why is now the time for value stocks? michael: we are not back to where we were on the magnificent 7 or technology sector, it has performed really well and has hit record highs. but let's take health care, for example, if you want a company that was involved in glp obesity stocks, you got left behind. there is a lot of companies there. in the insurance sector, cigna and unitedhealth are great companies that haven't participated. we think they will in 2024. medical device companies, people will still get medical procedures done. they will still have heart problems. we like medtronic. rtx and l3 harris. in this world, they will hold up better than other sectors in the economy. sonali: i love the value versus growth conversation. it's not a one-way street, it can get choppy. and to see the recent performance starting to catch up. it doesn't go the other way next year just given the love that there has

vonnie: fascinating stock reactions. to some extent, you expect something like that but that is a pretty nice pop there. thanks. still ahead, alphabet shares jumped the most since july as google releases its gemini ai model to a mostly positive response from analysts. but first, tribeca investment partners explains how australian equities a surprise to the upside amid and improving cyclical backdrop. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> take a look at australian and kiwi bonds this morning. we have seen yields falling across the australian sovereign yield curve in the early part of the friday morning session. we are seeing the three year and the five-year down just about 3.8 six basis points, the 10 year yield falling 4.5 basis points there. the updated communication when it comes to the reserve bank of australia saying that they are committing to clearly communicating how it is balancing its nation and employment objectives. that is from the updated statement on monetary policy from the rba this morning. let's bring in a portfolio m

vonnie:.onnie: yes, we saw the downside when it comes to chinese adrs in the wall street session, the golden dragon as an index only about 2% or so. look at how u.s. futures are coming online in the asian session. downside after stocks and bonds smell today. risk assets taking a breather after the recent rally in the s&p 500, at its highest level since march of 2022. long positioning has been crowded. so we are seeing a bit of unwinding in that. also, investors are u.s. factory orders, following more than expected as we await jobs numbers, including november nonfarm payrolls on friday. meantime, treasury following. the 10-year yield towards the 4.3 level. and crude prices at the moment rebounding a little bit. wti up 0.4%. this, only after folding for three consecutive sessions. six weeks of consecutive losses. there is a lot of skepticism that the latest opec+ supply cuts will tighten the market. but it's really about the fed direction. our next guest says bond market bond yields are still at

paul: bloomberg's vonnie quinn there.e are other geopolitical stories making news around the world. russian president vladimir putin says he has no into genoa attacking nato countries. he says moscow has no territorial claims to the box members after president biden said russia would not stop at ukraine. white house is trying to convince u.s. lawmakers to release $61 billion in military aid to kyiv, held up in a dispute over republicans with border security. egypt is monitoring tensions in the red sea as you many militant attacks prompt ships to avoid the region. assaults increased in recent weeks as who see fighters target vessels they say are connected to israel as a response to the war in gaza. several major shipping lines say it will pause important voyages on the red sea one of the world's most important trade corridors. the philippines is seeking more military agreements with other countries to allow joint training. in a visit to japan president fernando marcus junior says medela is looking to boost alliances and he

paul: vonnie quinn.ther top geopolitical stories, vladimir putin says he has no intention of attacking nato countries. he says moscow has no territorial claims with members. president biden said russia wouldn't stop at ukraine. the white house is trying to convince u.s. lawmakers to release $160 billion in military aid, held up in a dispute with republicans over border security. egypt is monitoring tensions in the red sea. assault have increased in recent weeks, militants targeting vessels. several shipping lines are pausing voyages on the red sea. the philippines is seeking more military agreements with other countries that would allow joint training. the president visited japan and said manila was looking to boost alliances, amid heightened tensions with china in the south china sea. chinese ships blasted water cannons at philippine vessels. shery ahn: let's turn to energy. a surprise surge in u.s. shale production posing a threat to opec. sue, a few months ago, the sector influence, u.s. shale on the

i vonnie: want to get to the competition.em to like the cost-cutting strategies from nio, whether it is just cutting jobs or trying to spin off non-core business parts. what do you make of those, and how much will that help? jochen: it is marginal. because when you look at the business that they have in battery swapping, they only have a share of that anyway, it is giving away to another company. it is kind of complicated. i don't think it will make much of a difference. and then cutting 10% of the workforce short-term helps. longer-term, that can be the strategy for a startup, and they will have to cut corners, cut costs. . it will slow down their r&d. and i don't think it actually helps for a startup to do that. shery: let's talk a bit about the competition, and perhaps a w ay for nio and other ev makers internet to gain an edge over the overseas market. how feasible is that? jochen: it's very difficult. nio has actually tried to get into the european market, and so far, they have only sold a few hundred vehicles. they are

vonnie: not just where there is surprising, but kurodasan too.his chart shows traders are paying the most to head yen volatility at least since the summer when we saw the boj policy tweak. to the point of how the currency has supported the markets, not to mention inflationary pressures, given that we might be pricing in a change from the boj at a time when the fed pivot is towards rate cuts, what is the risk of a stronger yen of really dumping the marketing 2024? belita: i think the stronger yen would definitely dampen the growth prospects for exporters. at the will make cheaper imports that they need from materials. so it's not as though it's all bad. on balance, i would say that it's not good for growth. at the same time, there is a mitigating factor which is that if you look at most japanese companies' financials, they have factored in dollar-yen weaker than the yen stronger than rarities right now, when we do our calculations for where we think the yen is right now, we can see it appreciating without doing to damage to companies' prospects. i

also coming up kremlin critic, alexia vonnie is finally located within 2 weeks after associates lost track of having to bonnie spoke 1st and says he's currently in a penal colony in northern right.

and so don, so they've entered the talent of y vonny. they control a number of ministry basis off to fighting with a student needs. national ami modalities, the capital of just a, to stage less than $200.00 calories of self cartoon. hundreds of thousands of people fled the flashing among them. those who had already escaped, widens from the capitol, holes and 12000 people have died since the will began in april. of the un security council has a way to withdraw peacekeepers from the democratic republic of congo. the gradual exit will begin later this month. but the un mission will remain in the country for another year. comedies authorities to choose peace, capers of failing to protect civilians from groups operating in the eastern d. l. c. attacks are forced more than 7000000 people from their homes. this comes with nearly 14000000 registered voter to so go to the powers for a general election on wednesday. president felix. the cat is taking a 2nd to catherine, sorry reports. we have been speaking to the president of electro commission, s

own beat in strict with the comprehensive 3 mill victory over i'm a firm foot nigeria striker victor vonny face has scored one goal and set up to others as the work was made at 12 winds, from 15 games in the league, the season florian visits east palm the ship with victor. bonus face has been one of labor cruises, many success stories, the season, and the passing sap again scape, the hardest, the lead off to 14 minutes bonus. i use going on challenge before side splitting high it was very sick, the sister of the season and half a day recipients of the nigerian striker are to be fair to him. only face to poke the work here is 9. go to the season. get clear to reach double figures out in the 2nd half, but he saw it was tom the right price is the positive jeremy, bring home to nail and it would seem get even better bonus phase. returning the favorites a bit. i'm a 20, wrote the direct incentive style. he spent the season with them down the go with the game. didn't you know it's the, it's could have top to even dancing the closing stages but was denied by the cross bar. frank spots who's humil

hi vonny 27 degrees celsius. that will see the heat pump back into central air is 41 degrees celsius. the in alice springs and some other heat creeping back into the southeast corner. that's the spike. the width on windy weather that's kept things very unsettled with more rain to come to the likes of new south wales, west of that developing across coastal areas of queens and some pretty nasty storms as well. pumping off across the top and shoes date into wednesday. and rain is set to rolling across both islands in new zealand and drop the temperature once again in christ church. we will well above the average will be down to the 17 degrees celsius. the on wednesday, some showers around the south island, heavier rain up in the north and heavy rain is the story. when it comes to southeast asia, we've got a heightened one soon. winds blowing down, and the rain just continues to pull into the malay peninsula. there with heavy falls as well for northern parts of small track in indonesia as well as borneo the west brou

they're vonny in back groups have been attacking us assets the region during the war and gaza and protests against washington support for israel and iran as well. that as well, it will pay off to a senior member of its revolution regardless of children as strike. and sylvia and i was able to solve, he was killed of the tablets of the capital, damascus. it was considered a close ally of general how since sunday morning of the revolution with god, commander who was killed in the us to an attack in advance. in 2020 the funeral of a 4 year old boy from gaza has been taking place. and because a lot of the drama most of was brought to the country from gaza for medical treatment, the died from his injuries ox was on the which was at the funeral. and method moved south west of the it's not long ago, a crowd of approximately 200 people actually gathered here. you know, to beat farewell to 4 year old. i'll say most stuff. so she was from guys and she was brought here as a part of initiative launched by the country government incorporation with egypt to transport the wounded palestinians to doha, to

avalarahhh ahhh >> from new york city to our viewers worldwide, i am vonnie.starts right number.

to my mother at the voice a of the most of the so i think about it on lot we're like okay wow, she vonny what you've done for me. i could not have dreamed of on the cisco wrist kinds of things that have it's something we need to keep in mind that oh, okay. then you have something new together lawyer and we must work diligently to build this thing together with us to them by telephone. so the, to have developed a mix of contemporary pope percussion and classical indian music. yes. once read a book, now i can, you must be good then now with on their own productions under the name on the head . which means balance of figuring out that the big enough at the beginning of the things i'm going to the bins all going to the that i can think about. but i think i think about that. are there any flower, the light in the soft on the as long as the flame of passion stays on, life is and maybe even grow stronger. we know we're not in the wrong place. one thoughtful sonya gotten works quite well. plus the new movie the into and still and every day there were those moments where you look out the window a

vonnie quinn: let us have a quick check of the markets, we saw a fedex earnings, a bellwether for thee in disappointing and we have the s&p 500 holding onto some small gains today, inching closer to the record. this is of course as traders look forward to pce data friday and gdp data thursday. up to .7% for the s&p 500. the 10-year yield for the auction is 3.88. crude oil and barely holding onto gains, like he is saying that it may have supply shortages because of the red sea problems. that continues.

vonnie: we have seen the s&p give up some gains.ing for the record potentially by the end of the year of 4713. the two year yield has been doing a bit of a round-trip. this on the back of weaker data, potentially data that could help the federal reserve. annualized pc came in -- pce came in weaker than analysts were looking for. crude oil up about one percentage point as angola says it is leaving opec. not entirely unexpected. we are drowning in

but out west, we've seen a dramatic drop for pass the maximum hi vonny 27 degrees celsius. that will see the heat pump back into central air is 41 degrees celsius. the in alice springs and some other heat creeping back into the southeast corner. that's the spike, the width and wendy. whether it's kept things very unsettled with more rain to come to the likes of new south wales, west of that developing across coastal areas of queens and some pretty nasty storms as well. pumping off across the top and choose day into wednesday. and rain is set to rolling across both islands in new zealand and drop the temperature once again in christ church. we will well above the average will be down to the 17 degrees celsius. the on wednesday, some showers around the south island. heavy rain up in the north and heavy rain is the story when it comes to southeast asia, we've got a heightened one soon. winds blowing down, and the rain just continues to pull into the malay peninsula. there with heavy falls as well for northern parts of democracy in indonesia as well as borneo, the bottom of chr

a lawyer for the opposition leader says he's visited no vonny at the prison and the mile, and then that's region he is said to be in good condition. they'll find a way to missing for weeks, and his whereabouts were unknown. purchase to have continued in the syrian capital to demand. the release of fellow protest is at least 30 yards people with a tie. and on sunday, off the crowd tried to still in belgrade city hall, the angry or village wide spread at lake toford. and last week's national elections, they also calling for the results to be a no well gun that has killed 120 people in the series of attacks in the central region of nigeria, plagues by religious and ethnic attentions. the attacks happened in plateau state between saturday night and monday morning, as people were preparing to celebrate christmas. the attack has also been down houses and destroyed property. a government spokesman says most of the bodies were covered for women and children, and now the 300 people has been injured in volumes between who it is and farm is common in the region of still a hit here on the images here

vonnie: how does it compare to president biden's september trip where they elevated ties between thetnam to a comprehensive strategic ownership? -- strategic partnership? huong: president biden's visit was historical given the trajectory of u.s.-vietnam relations. only this year did vietnam and the u.s. upgrade to the same level that vietnam and china have had for 15 years. so it is sort of a different level of closeness. and there is certainly not that aspect of party to party relations. even a party secretary-general meeting another party secretary-general is intimate. it is different in terms of the nature of the visit. i think both are important on their own merits and reflective of specific sets of bilateral relationships. i think the president -- biden's visit in september attracted perhaps more attention globally because it was such a milestone given the and vietnam's relationship -- given the u.s. and vietnam's relationship trajectory. this visit was quite important as well, but the two communist neighbors have had quite a close relationship for some time already. shery: how

his daughter, vonnie, shared his daughter with the "idaho downwinders", with my staff and me, in the hopes of finally righting the wrongs ever leave jouned winders -- downwinders behind. don was one of the thousands in gem county, idaho, alone, andon, who were unfortunately living in an area downwind of the trinity tests. this is not a matter just affecting conservative or liberal states. the bipartisan nature of the rica updates is because it affects people regardless of political affiliation. to be clear, the government's test of nuclear weapons caused this. it is our solemn duty to compensate those who have suffered because of these tests. the rica amendments ensure those who lived downwind of the test receive compensation from the government and provide support to uranium miners who worked during the cold war. i've worked with my colleagues for the past 13 years to attempt to right these wrongs, and july's vote to include rica amendments in the national defense authorization act shows the wide spred, bipartisan support to help those who have suf suffered. but it's frustrating and

his daughter, vonnie, shared his daer