we did have some commentary from fred waller. essentially people are coming around to the view that even though the u.s. is looking like it's going to end up in a soft landing situation, that may mean higher interest rates are going to be with us for longer. let's take a look at treasuries. this is the reaction we had overnight. today we're repounding a bit. overall we did see a stronger session in terms of yields. the treasury yield was up 0.8%. this built on the seven-point basis points after the job reports on friday. 4.26% on the 10-year right now. building on the negativity from the european session, the open in the u.s. looks like it's going to be slightly negative. all of the three majors opening up in the red. >>> it is september which means the cnbc's alpha is joining us around the corner. join us on september 28th where we're provide ideas and analysis. you can scan the qr code on your screen or visit cnbc d.com/even. you can get in touch with us directly. we'd love to hear from you. >>> coming up on "street signs," sau

great stuff with waller this morning. >>> let's talk about what's ahead for the fed. markets as we get into september. post nine, wells fargo institute daryl kronk and kpmg diane swank. great to see you both. you know, part of the interesting action was in treasuries on friday after the jobs number, and then again today. if consensus is the fed is done, why doesn't the bond market believe it? >> yeah. i think that's really the key message here, carl. you hit it on. if we got a 3% cpi print a couple months ago and yet, the long side of the yield curve is higher today at 4.25, right, it's only basically 9 basis points off its all-time high. if inflation is coming out of the economy to the previous discussion, that part of the yield curve should be pricing down inflation premiums an it's not. right. it's not just commodity and oil prices. wages are too high, the fact that housing market remains strong, which all feeds into inflation data in the back half of the year, despite 4% cpi will have the fed rethinking november again and loo no further than the super core on frid

governor waller, thank you for joining us this morning.we had the jobs data, and the pce inflation data. i wonder if you've been thinking about it and how you react to what's happening? is it going along with your forecast? >> yeah, thanks, steve, for having me on. yeah, that was a hell of a good week of data that we had last week. and the key thing out of it is it's going to allow us to proceed carefully as chair powell said at jackson hole. there's nothing that is saying that we need to do anything imminent anytime soon, so we can sit there, wait for the data, see if things continue. the biggest thing is just inflation. we have two good reports in a row, can wait and see what a third one looks like and see whether the slow inflation is a trend or it was just an outlier or a fluke. >> when you say low inflation, when i looked at some of the things that i know that the chair looks at, i know you do too, which is that pce core ticking up, housing, it actually went up. what about it made you feel comfortable? >> well, the thing that really d

steve, let's start with waller's comments.was saying more than that, but he, like many, were cheering the data, fewer job openings, and labor market moderations we saw last week. >> yeah, let's just put waller in context. when he doesn't frown, it's like he's smiling. he's not the most jubilant person to be with, but he was not that bad about the data. he was a little more on the hawkish side, and i do want to make a remark about goldman's call. it's not remarkable they went from 20% to 15%, but what is remarkable is they are doubling down on saying the chance of recession is less than average. so in any given year, there's a one in four, one in five chance of a recession happening. i don't think he's going crazy here, but what he is saying to us in this call is that it's a less an average chance, which is significant. i don't necessarily see the data that way. but certainly we have come a long way in terms of defying the recession probabilities. >> he's been correct out there, to his credit, which is why he's so worth listeni

your republican colleague congressman waller is right. it is going to have to be bipartisan. so why is there so much clueless next on the other side of the aisle? >> well i think they showed us on day one of congress, they are a little -- speaker mccarthy cannot count his votes. but with divided government, it has to be bipartisan to pass. >> and it is ironic that the speaker can't count, it seems. because he was the whip when speaker boehner was the republican speaker of the house. do you see a path forward to avoiding a shutdown? a true path forward? >> i think if the speaker would work with the house democrats, i mean senate democrats and republicans are working together on their bills, we are ready to work together. i think the american people expect us to work together. that window is closing. if mccarthy continues to give in to the extreme wing of his caucus -- >> how likely is it than do you think that you are going to end up voting not on a house generated bill, but on a senate generated bill? >> i think it is very likely. they are moving forward, and house republican

waller from new york is recognized for five minutes. >> thank you mr. chairman. it is amusing to listen to some of my colleagues and their ignorance about esg and the impact that it has on the market. they know exactly the impact it has on the market because they have been advocating for government intervention in our market economy for years. if you look in my state of new york, as i mentioned in yesterday's hearing, with the new york state pension fund and the new york city pension fund and what they do to try and dictate to companies as shareholders, it is remarkable. you look at the housing market and you see what new york is doing just this year. and banning gas stoves. banning natural gas hookups. this is a state and california being another one, where they are absolutely seeking to use their influence to append to the market place. they don't believe in free markets. they don't believe in consumer choice. in fact, they are trying to limit consumer choice. what it does is drives up the cost of housing. so at the very time they talk about the need for afford

waller, i mentioned his commends. what's the environment as we head into the fall? >> i think it's tougher because we are already in sell the news mode and i think that's really what august was all about. i don't think it resets the market, materially puts us in a different environment. i think the bull is intact but harder to come by gains because stocks are not coming off those extremely lower levels and the prices to the upside get tougher. i don't want to do too much on energy here. i still very much believe that these stocks look like they're all on the verge of big multiyear breakouts. i'll put a pin in that. what joe mentioned about the dollar is really important. we don't talk about the dollar a lot on this show but one of the most reliable inverse correlations in the macro environment. i'm not a huge macro person but when you look at the charts, it's undeniable. the dollar was down 4% on the year, which is material. the s&p 500 peaked after that low was in. the dollar is now 5% off the july low. and the s&p is about flat from that level. so there is a very

joining us republican congressman from new york mike waller. congressman, so appreciate you being with us on day like today. i want to step back for a moment and let you and everyone listen to real froeks from across the country. this is 2019 as the shutdown was going on and on. here is how it impacted them. >> i have enough for one more mortgage payment and i got to go to car max tomorrow and sell my car. >> when we hear things like this shutdown could go on for months or years, we don't have months or years. we have creditors. we have medical bills. we have mortgages. we have rent. >> i don't think that we should be held captive like our paychecks should be held captive just because of something that they need to, like, brawl out. >> can you guarantee that those people and your constituents, that won't happen this time? >> i am going to do everything i can to ensure that it doesn't. i don't think there is any question the only people who get hurt here are the american people. i respect some of the differences that some of my colleagues have w

. >> waller went on to say inflation means the fed's top issue and is going to determine what it does next. he would not rule out an additional rate hike saying he does not think it would tip the economy into inflation, not ready to declare inflation victory. he is just one in a series of fed speakers we have this week. collins from boston, harper, williams,logan from dallas, and bowman and barr. the u.s. economy still pretty good. considerable challenges including rising entity prices, the lag impacts of rate hikes and bank credits but so far the data suggests goldman and others that recession may yet be avoided, guys. >> and as for an interest rate hike at the september meeting, that probability is declining, declining. >> we've now heard from a bunch of folks and i think you can take that from powell's remarks that september is going to be not one to remember perhaps when it comes to rate hikes. you know, that is going to give him a whole lot more data and makes a lot of sense. one of the things waller said today is hey we were burned a couple times thinking inflation was transitor

irma waller es la encargada de este programa en la región del valle central y el valle de san joaquínla familia. estas reparaciones por ejemplo, incluyen cambiar el techo o las ventanas, aire acondicionado, arreglar los pisos. si hay alguna zona en la casa que necesite arreglos como eléctricos de plomería, también podríamos ayudarlos con eso. si hay un dueño de casa que necesita acceso al baño, quizá está en silla de ruedas y necesita mejor acceso. dentro de la casa podríamos ayudar con eso. >> también ayuda a ampliar la casa. si acaso la familia creció. no obstante, cada proceso y cada solicitud son diferentes. no entres, no entres. >> no nacen. no nacen. so it's. nadie me cree ni mi hijo me cree . ahí hay beautiful battery beautiful battery en miami. hermano. ganó un roof. >> los condados como merced fresno titularé kings madera y mariposa. al igual que las ciudades como fresno, woodley, boys, celia, tú y corcoran cuentan con este programa de ayuda. cabe mencionar que este programa existe en todos los condados de california. lo único que usted tiene que hacer es ponerse en contacto

the wallers close nothing on i don't biden now. dom nose started to fall. we talked about this with david the opinion piece in the "washington post" we knew it was going it start falling apart and nancey pelosi a smart woman able it say clear that you know joe biden is the greatest and she refuses to say that kamala harris is the best running mate for joe biden. you got nikki saying this morning that this is a series discussion about joe's age and is mental acuity. now we got the first time in american history that a president's son indicted. indicted for something had is a provable crime amount matter of record. public record. he made admissions in the book. 3 counts to this dime. adding up to 25 years. however those 25 years if convicted of all 3 lying to the person who bought the gun and possessing the gun he was urn the influence of drugs. the upon sentence should be run kuhn concurrently heel not get 25 years and first oshg fender not near the highest charge or the lowest, five years. however when is stun burglar this there was nothing prevent thanksgi

by the way, don't miss the cnbc exclusive interview with federal reserve governor christopher wallermarkets for the day ahead. we know what is driving the action and bullish move for the stocks this year. technology, communication services and the consumer discretionary sector with meta and tesla and nvidia and others. with the market cap side of things, check out what is happening on the year-to-date basis for the large, medium and small cap parts of the market. large caps have been dominating. midcaps are trying to play catch up. you see that with the small caps as well. if you look on the more on one-month basis. the large cap and russell 2000. that spdr etf has taken the leadership role. we will see if the trend breaks or continues. for more on this and the trading day ahead, i'm joined by amy wu silverman at rbc capital markets. a amy, you keep a close eye on what is happening with fund flows and derivatives markets. wo could we see the bullishness continue given what the options market is telling us? >> good morning, dom. we are not seeing that peak e exuberance as we head into

tyler, don't miss our interview we have on tuesday with fed governor chris waller. >> what did the jobsort do to the anticipation about the september meeting? >> it went down even more. so they're taking a pass in september, and i think that makes sense. they have the inflation numbers coming out, in no particular hurry. >>> our next guest says the jobs report tells her the labor markets are behaving exactly as they would if we were headed into a recession early next year. that means there could be discussions within the fed soon about the danger of going too far with rate hikes. she's francis donald, global chief economist. francis, welcome. these numbers, i want you to make the case for us here, that these numbers taken as a group, add up to a higher probability, or possibility, shall we say, of a recession next year, what are you seeing? >> that's how i see it, tyler. i keep hearing this was a good jobs report, that's why stocks jumped. no, this was a bad enough jobs report it means, and i agree with steve, the fed is done. we can celebrate that. so let me be clear, even though i see

another asked republican, like waller of new york, was even more explicit, calling it a clown show. > just not conservative republicans. this is stupidity. the idea that we will shut the government down when we don't control the senate, don't control the white house, these people can't define a win, they don't know how to take yes for an answer. it's a clown show. if you keep running lunatics, you'll be in this position. >> i cringe a little bit when it's not conservative republican, he says, it's the p. diddy. i know those are not a surly in the same, yet here we are, two days away from the aforementioned clown show, his words, of lunatics shutting down the government. at this point, it's not clear what will happen. generally, nobody knows. kevin mccarthy and house republicans could very easily in 20 minutes to try to work with democrats to pass a bill to keep the government open. that is what they are doing on the senate side. but if he did that, the hard-line republican members of his caucus would likely try this take his speakership away. so faced with that choice, keep the govern

i think when governor waller says we need to wait, they probably are likely to wait to see.ivity growth which is excellent, that allows wages to grow without as much inflation pressure. will that be sustained? that's really the question and that's really hard to predict. >> and then we have the hotter services number yesterday, a little bit firmer unit labor cost today. suggesting maybe that it's not going to be a straight downward trajectory as maybe the market and fed would hope on inflation? what do you think? >> exactly. models say very smooth, but the world never works that way. you can't rely on vladimir putin and others in opec to make sure that energy prices come down in a consistent way. we may see headline inflation bump up here and there because of tightness in energy markets. the core numbers are flat to starting to come down and that's going to have a lot to do with wages and productivity growth. tra >> you see november as a toss up as far as potential action? >> for sure. if we continue to see very strong labor market data, continue to see the inflation rates s

we had waller on he said, we've been burned before that's why they are more circumspect about the progressther they are or should be. it was in response to the services report. the november rate jumped to above 50%. but steve's right, greg. we haven't heard officials being too, you know, hawkish or kind of running this policy of we better err on the side of one more or else >> policymakers are being very careful what they're saying. they want to essentially highlight the possibility that there will be a pause, and we think that's going to be the baseline forecast. we think the fed is done with its tightening cycle but they don't want to exclude the possibility of future rate hikes should domestic demand prove stronger than expected or the labor market show less easing those are the two conditions powell highlighted in his speech so it will be a nuanced message, but given what the data is showing and how inflation is evolving and the labor market, i think the fed is done with the rate hike cycle. >> greg, i mentioned anecdotal data points, but what do you think is going on here >> it's very

you could say, waller and bostic suggest that we can be both slow and/or done. where as bullard and some others would suggest if the economy remains as strong as it is, we might have to do more. how much more real risk do you think is to the upside on fed policy? >> so, you know, the short answer is i don't know. that's the rub of the fed being data dependent with the data they're dependent on in the case of inflation being lagging in nature. so, they're not all operating on a forward-looking playbook. we just, all of us, including the fed, waits for the incoming data. where there is a disconnect is not so much what they do with the september meeting, with the november meeting, we can all look at the fed watch tool on cme and see high likely hihood a pause, but the cuts priced in, that's where i think the disconnect still exists. that's what i'll be listening for when powell has the press conference is does he push back more forcefully on rate cuts being fairly aggressive in 2024 in an all else equal scenario, meaning even if disinflation continues to build in t

point, my captain pointed on our map to several islands which had names like smith and hobbs and waller and i thought, well, these are such curious sounding english names, and they seem kind of familiar to me. and i had brought with me some of the cast copies of the castaways journals, and sure enough, i found the names in them that was where when some of the castaway came from, some one of the factions had tried to escape from wager island and to tiny little boats. one of the boats had sank and they had not enough room them on the other boat. so these four men were abandoned on this little group of islands and this is why they are named after them. this is their only epitaph. and the captain didn't know why. he just knew those were the names. we also went by a canal cheap and byron island and eventually we got to wager island. and at dawn, after sleeping the island at dawn the next morning we got into a little zodiac. i'm going to show you a photograph because i look so good in it. i share this photograph, the wishes of my wife, just to show you, how bundled up i was, i had all these l

that moderates, the so-called moderates, kind of biden district republicans like donn bacon or mike waller out new york, have been reluctant to actually throw their weight around and try to, you know, push mccarthy one way or the other in lieu of instead trying to bead good soldiers and find, you know, areas, you know, for them to have their own political brand. we haven't seen it. ken buck is showing how easy it is if you wantsh to put the bras on something, you can. i think thathi both -- kind of weird way and weird position saying buck and gaetz are making a good point. thego house was already investigating joe biden. kevin mccarthy said he was going to bring to the house floor a vote on whether they would have an impeachment inquiry, but he knew he didn't have the vote for that so he didn't do it and makes this i announcement whichs the same stuff they've already been doing. i think that, you know, shows just kind of how desperate he is to try to find something that would unite his conference. it doesn't seem to have worked. >> yeah. ali, of course, tim is right, house oversight has be

point, my captain pointed on our map to several islands which had names like smith and hobbs and waller and i thought, well, these are such curious sounding english names, and they seem kind of familiar to me. and i had brought with me some of the cast copies of the castaways journals, and sure enough, i found the names in them that was where when some of the castaway came from, some one of the factions had tried to escape from wager island and to tiny little boats. one of the boats had sank and they had not enough room them on the other boat. so these four men were abandoned on this little group of islands and this is why they are named after them. this is their only epitaph. and the captain didn't know why. he just knew those were the names. we also went by a canal cheap and byron island and eventually we got to wager island. and at dawn, after sleeping the island at dawn the next morning we got into a little zodiac. i'm going to show you a photograph because i look so good in it. i share this photograph, the wishes of my wife, just to show you, how bundled up i was, i had all these l

ex-raider darren waller, the rookie jalen hyatt out of tennessee. i don't mind paying patrick mahomes, who by the way, just got a massive extension. it is $210 million over four years. remember he he'd signed that ten year contract that made him the highest paid player in the history of everything, and he is now the. coming into today was the eighth highest other guys jumped. patrick how do you jump patrick mahomes the whole system is just so goofy. it's really good to be a quarterback no matter what it is these days is at this point. all right. niners have a new defensive coordinator in the off season they hired steve wilks. it was kind of a bend but don't break situation in against the rams you put together with casey pratt our producer a really a great breakdown uh- niners got only one sack in this game but your illustration of it. well, let's just see it right now. >> i love the game behind the game and this is what we're going to look at here. we talk about team defense right? fred warner comes in, gets the sack from his linebacker position. ho

a good tight end from the raiders in darren waller. think overall, this giants team has incrementally taken a step forward. we'll see how they do on the defensive side. if you want a headline to watch the cowboys this season. mike mccarthy who was the packers head coach, came to dallas, he's now calling the plays. that's a little bit of a change for them. their play caller now is with the chargers. we'll see if it's an offense that makes fewer mistakes. that's the problem dak prescott had last year, too many interceptions. those are the big story lines on saturday night. >> with apologies, i may be one of the wonkier members of the audience who is more interested in the off the field drama around where and how to watch the games than in the games themselves. if we don't have a resolution between disney and charter, monday night football might not be available for a bunch of people. just, i'm curious on your take on the changing media landscape as we navigate through this, and what you're hearing from the audience. is there kind of tryi

waller was speaking in his personal capacity and not as a designee of the fed? chair powell: i don't comment on the things that my colleagues say. >> i understand. but you understand the concern, if markets and regulators are to understand that the fed has an, and one of the members is saying something that appears to be directly opposed to policy from six month ago that's a concerned. chair powell: again, governors have always had the ability, and reserve bank presidents as well, the ability to have their own views on things. that's a good thing that we have a diversity of perspective. there may be less in that difference than you suggest. what i'm saying, thanks -- banks, to the extent we have a role is that banks can understand the risks they do face from climate change. >> i don't want to create internal tension. we are all aware that you are aware that your words are closely scrutinized. we were concerned with the words of your colleagues. i don't know if you saw this report that just came out recently, but it says that climate change poses a risk to price

, and lord spencer says waller, and lord spencer says quite bluntly that the bbc told lies about it which of course was demonstrably untrue. the bbc has apologised for this abjectly and lord dyson carried out an inquiry and he roundly accused the corporation of deceit. but now lord spencer says, not unreasonably , let's says, not unreasonably, let's find out the whole of it . find out the whole of it. >> let's find out what really went on and how did this in any way contribute to or could it be seen to have contributed towards the situation or the circumstances that led up to diana's death? >> well , i diana's death? >> well, i think prince william said it all. >> he said it made the marriage they were only separated at the time, 1995, november . they were only separated at the time, 1995, november. i remember it very well . the prince and it very well. the prince and princess of wales were only separate covid. but that made that was the final curtain. >> and after that, her majesty the queen said to prince charles, it's got to be divorce. >> so that's set in train. everything that

they seem cool with it, especially waller, kind of led the hawkish camp, but maybe we need to rise if firmg inflation or maybe the challenge talking the market away from the cut narrative into next year, which the market starting to bake in a first half cut. >> trying at least. the chicago fed paper earlier in the week that said the fed has done enough to get to the target in '24 without a recession. we have some confirmations with cooke and jefferson and kug her, fcc commissioner. more political stability to the fed this week. >> maybe. fed's john williams, essentially number two, votes at every meeting, the new york fed president, speaking yesterday as well and made it sound like he's thinking they've done a lot already and things are moving in the right direction and we have a policy in place, but we're going to need to continue to be data dependent, watch developments and assess what we need to do. very good place in terms of a restricted stance of policy is what a really people are noting. he also added that the fed has done a lot, so it feels like the center of the fed more is t

jonathan: at his own colleague, waller, was the one really offering up the idea a year or so ago thatyour work, roll up your sleeves, look at the real economy out of the st. louis fed, and that is the heritage of jim bullard. lisa: it is hard enough to understand what it means to raise rates to certain level for the broader economy but what i am curious as to here, when you keep them there that long, what you understand to be the implications when the effects have been so delayed with rates that have been so low effectively for so many. tom: speed data check, i will look at the real yield, the 10-year on 2.08%. jonathan: normal is 4.5, absolutely amazing to see the treasury curve right now. the 30 year just short of 4.50, the two-year, 5.17, yields unchanged but recently at cycle highs the last one for hours. tom: in conversation with james bullard, the former st. louis fed president, michael mckee. michael: thank you very much. we would like to thank jim bullard for running us, i would have called you mr. president, but now we call you dean bullard. dean bullard: you can call me jim.

waller street skate park, over at stanyan edge, the entire stanyan edge development, which was done in conjunction with the haight ashbury neighborhood council and community meeting after community meeting with clear plans how it would be done, with involvement of the skate community speaking in favor of it. and done well and i give rec park credit for that. come out and visit the haight and the skate park. they know how to do this right. we as a city anyhow how to do this right. this isn't a case of ignorance and that's what troubles me the most. i have approached this from the first time that mr. ginsburg general manager spoke of it, assuming everyone was engaged in good faith on an activation of this space. from what i have seen and heard today and what i learned every step of the way, i can no longer make that assumption that everyone is operating in good faith on this activation. so, i am sadden this resolution is necessary. i do want to make very clear to the folks i represent in the tenderloin and broader community that supports this farmers market and relied on it for years and

the reason i asked is because i may 11th your colleague christopher waller had a speech in spain and said climate change does not pose a serious risk to the safety and soundness of large banks or financial stability of the united states. he went on to say the risk if not sufficiently unique or material. should we understand as we sit here that he was speaking in his personal capacity and not as a designee from the fed in the fed policy have not changed? >> i don't comment on the things that my colleagues say. >> i understand, but you understand the concern that if markets and regulators are to understand that the fed has a consistent policy one of the members of the fat is saying something that appears to be directly opposed to policy from six months earlier that is a concern? >> again, governors have always had the ability and reserve bank presidents as well to have their own views on things. that is going to happen and that is probably a good thing. there may be less in the difference than you suggest. again, what i am saying is to the extent we have a role it is to ensure banks un