waller added in his comments the data is as good as it gets but the data should be lowered methodically and carefully give us a sense. how did you read this? was this dovish or the data dependent fed we keep hearing about? >> this is the data dependent fed we keep hearing about. here's the thing the fed fund's futures has priced in six fed rate cuts for this year alone. i doubt that the if ed is going to get in three this year. that's a big difference in terms of where rates end up at the end of the year, and thing questionty markets are priced for all six rate cuts. they need them to justify where their rates are right now and the bond market needs to feel it otherwise you're going to feel pain as the yield works itself out this year. every single market is poised for a lot of fed cuts that i don't think are going to happen as quick will i as their price did. >> you don't think a lot of fed rate cuts will happen. where are you at, gina >> i'm probably at two to three. >> a bit of a contrarian mark, i'm coming over to you the comments from waller, was this the dovish talk everybody was

joe, i feel this is waller giveth, waller taketh away remember what he did to initiate things in october. maybe he's pouring cold water on all the cuts coming. he said, yeah, we can cut this year no reason to move as quickly or cut as rapidly as in the past. the timing and number of cuts will be driven by incoming data. yields went up a little bit, 4.04 on the ten year >> i wish we weren't in this place. there's been fundamental improvement from the fourth quarter in 2023 to where we are now, there should be more excitement, more of a risk on mentality. we're in a place we are debating whether or not we will have a march rate cut i think that's going to hang over the market in a way, in a mannerism that will be choppy price action i think that's been evidence the last week. unfortunately, we have to get past that with some really strong earnings. i don't know if you're going to get the really strong earnings until you hear from technology and mega caps. last week there were good earnings to get excited about, there wasn't enough there we could say, okay, we're getting that broadening out

the waller warning the fed governor suggesting the central bank will be modest in its rate cuts this year. his commenting sends stocks dropping and yields and the dollar rising. so, should investors brace for more hawkishness out of the fed z and what it will mean for markets? >>> plus, grounded shares of spirit airlines closing at a record low as its merger with jetblue gets called back to the gate the impact it's having on other airlines and how to trade that industry >>> later on, gold stocks losing their luster as the miners see their worst day since february a semi standout, with amd trading close to record highs, and then cannabis stocks get a green light. we'll debate all of those topics coming up. i'm dominick chu in tonight for melissa lee, coming to you live from studio b at the nasdaq market side. on the desk tonight, tim seymour, dan nathan, guy adami, and rebecca patterson. we'll start with that sea of red on wall street today the dow dropping nearly 400 points at its lows, though it closed well off those levels the nasdaq ending a six-day winning streak the moves coming

remember waller, fed governor waller spoke and initially the market went higher because this is likehe staunchest hawk and rubberstamped the idea of 2024 rate cuts you about that rally fizzled at the end of day. the market breadth, you take all the stocks in the new york stock exchange and nasdaq a look at those made new 52-week highs and 52-week lows, first time since mid-november we actually had a lot more stocks came in on the new low side. that is a red flag. let's bring in bianco research president jim bianco. jim, you have been in a lonely place for a while. you are calling for the 10-year yield to go five, five 1/2. i suspect today a little more sobererring maybe not getting crowded in your situation, but maybe the bleed path to a soft landing won't be as simple as we had seen a week ago? >> i ayo. we're seeing with the data upside surprises. retail sales numbers in december came in better than people thought. that caused wall street to up their fourth quarter gdp estimates. the economy is is looking soft landish, but no landish. the trend is expected or little bit better f th

waller said this to us. waller is per situation sieve. he is one of the smartest guys they got.hn carney, taylor riggs. catch taylor on "the big money show" along with co-hosts brian brenberg and jackie deangelis 1:00 p.m. eastern on fox business. thank you very much. john, thank you very much. >>> joining me old friend corey lewandoski. let me get your cake president trump said last night. get your take on it in a second. please listen. >> as you know nikki haley in particular -- >> not coming here. artificially boosting her numbers here. larry: what do you think? you're from new hampshire. you run new hampshire primaries in the past. how do you assess this boston suburb, liberal, left democrats independents voting for haley. what do you make of it, cory? >> larry, look new hampshire has changed. it wasn't that long ago we were the beacon of conservativism in new england. those days are now over. what we're seeing in the trump race, when you look at the suffolk poll that came out today, if you just polled the republicans donald trump beats nikki haley, 37 points, 61-24. when yo

fed governor waller spoken an event this morning saying there is no reason to move as quickly or cutly as in the past in the market is rethinking its bets for how quickly and how deeply the fed may cut rates which impacts the technology sector. the other thing is fed waller using the language fed can cut this year rather than say a specific month or upcoming meeting. there are some movers but mega caps are doing some of the work to lift up the index. one of those names is microsoft which has earlier gains but we are up 0.3%. satir nadella spoke on stage and davos but microsoft is opening up its ai platform to consumers. the company is also announcing it's making the corporate version available to smaller companies and we are joined by the microsoft executive vice president for more on this. good morning to you. this is a substantial step because you think about all of the people around the world that use some form of microsoft software in their daily life. how is copilot going to be integrated if you are an everyday technology user? >> good morning. this is a significant step. we've

waller does not address the timing. just says later this year. most of us would be interested in whether he has a time period picked up. i don't have a lot of other monetary policy fed commentary this week. we have john williams this afternoon. we have mary daly on friday. the others are all and regulation. daly and williams are both voters. they will have something interesting to say. we get the beige book tomorrow which could also feed into this whole debate. guy: and the debate is -- thank you for bringing us the chris waller headlines. much-anticipated today. a virtual event now. i wonder what impact they could have on the q&a. we will see. talking of the weather and snow, i want to take you back to the conversation we were listening into of the world economic forum in davos. talking about ai. brad stone with the openai team. let's listen back on that conversation. anna: we thought it was the right thing for sam to be back. sam: the thing i will say is it's important that i have an entity. that entity has to have some accountability, too. tha

here is the quote from waller, in many previous cycles the fomc cut-rates reactively and did so quicklyounts. this cycle however i see no reason to move as quickly or cut as rapidly as in the past. in other market news shares of apple falling on iphone price cuts in china. those cyclical names having a hard time today, larry, back to you. larry: thank you, gerri willis, we appreciate the update very much. all right, moving right along we'll talk some more about this iowa blowout by donald trump. joining us mark simone, hall of fame, wor radio host, and joe concha, media, politics columnist at "the messenger" and fox news contributor. mark simone, where does this leave nikki haley and ron desantis? because they lost but they lost by a lot, lower expectations and i don't think anybody expected this kind of thing. now they're going on to new hampshire and -- i don't understand, what is their path to victory? >> there is no path too victory. talking about second place, you're 30 points behind in the biggest landslide blowout in iowa history. by the way trump would have had another five poin

. >> i'm trying to look at what chris waller had to say. arguably, he ignited this whole rally of the end of october. part of the reason that we are where we are. we have been in striking distance. >> this was on the s&p 500. what do you make of what they have to say right here? >> which part? he's waiting on cuts? it may not matter quite so much. you know how much the fed starts with. it is crazy how bullish the market appeared to be, preparing for the remarks. disappointing. he was ever so slightly less than expected. we went into this thing. this was 70%. it is now around 67. the market is still betting on it. i will give you the moment right now. the market hasn't changed a whole lot. these of expectations that he would add. he didn't add to any strict or strong parameters around. >> this is no reason for the fed to move. i'm taking it. no reason for them to move rapidly. we have prior easing cycles. this is equivalent to the rush back to where the market seems to be priced. we are probably going to cut this year. we could be real all s

. >> i think he will table the stance like chris waller laid out in the speech, there is no rush to cuts to cutting they cut rapidly, because there is a downturn they are fighting off, but that is not the case right now, waller is who one of the smartest guys. >> john carp carney and taylor riggs. weekdays 1 prelimina prelimina. >> joining he now, corey lewandowski, he will give us update and low down in new hampshire. corey welcome, happy new year. let me get your take, something that president trump said last night. your take on this. listen, please. >> as you know nikki haley, in particular, is counting on the democrats and liberals to infiltrate your republican primary, you know that. that is what is happening. a group of people coming in that are not republicans, and it is artificially boosting her numbers here. larry: corey, president is not wrong. but what do you think? you are from new hampshire. you have run new hampshire primaries in the past. done a pretty good job, how do you assess this? boston, suburb, liberal, left? democrats, and independents, voting for haley? what did

reporter: stocks selling off tuesday after federal reserve governor waller said that central bank is likely to take its time cutting rates, dow down 230. to 21 thto 231 that is, s&p off by 17 and nazdaq lower by 20, markets were expecting an aggressivizing cycle this year. but the comments cut off that optimism. here is the quote from waller in many previous cycles: >> and other market news shares of apple falling on iphone price cuts in china. the cyclical names haven't a hard time. larry: thank you. >> gerri willis. all right moving on, talk more about this iowa blowout by donald trump, joining us mark simone, hall of fame wor radio host, and joe concha, fox news contributor. mark, where does this leave nikki haley and ron desantis? because they lost but they lost by a lot lower expectations, and i don't think that anyone expected this kind of thing, going on to new hampshire. why is their path to victory. >> there is no path to victory, talking second place, you are 30 behind in biggest landslide blowout in iowa history. president trump would have this are had another 5, they knew

jonathan: let's get those comments from governor waller, fed governor waller calling for rate cuts latersaying "when the time is right to begin lowering rates, i believe they can and will be lowered methodically." more cuts will be coming from babar williams. they are on the same page, very and different ideas of what we should do this year, when that should begin but the pushback is marches too soon and six is too much. lisa: this time is different and this stood out from chris wilder's comments, he said with labor markets in good shape and inflation down to 2%, i see no reason to cut as rapidly in the past but this time is different because they are not facing a crisis, which means the soft landing everybody is looking for does not come with six rate cuts, five or four. jonathan: it is not just pushback on that side of the atlantic but this side, as well. christine lagarde had a few things to say about ecb policy, and what she has been saying is what we are asking, when the market tells you this is how much to cut by, the market makes it difficult to achieve inflation objectives for th

time from the feds waller perhaps continuing that message that market pricing is ahead of itself. cuts created a lot of that narrative. six to seven, how much more pushback from the federal reserve, when the bond market is actively affecting real-time prices? that is a conversation at davos as well. where does monetary and fiscal policy both butt heads and come together? interviews today starting with the governor of the bank of france. it's not just u.s., we are going global. we have the ukraine economy minister, the nato secretary-general and the ceo over the nasdaq as well. first, an interview with north volt's ceo at a time when we're talking about batteries and funding. that interview just a couple of minutes away with our "markets today" team. stick with us. this is bloomberg. ♪ get over here kids. time for today's lesson. wow. -whoa. what are those? these are humans. they rely on something called the internet to survive. huh, powers out. [ gasp ] are they gonna to die? worse, they are gonna get bored. [ gasp ] wait look! they figured out a way to keep the internet on. yeah!

about, well what about a policy mistake, the fed stays too tight for too long it leads to you what waller said yesterday. he's sort of emerged as this person within the fed that, you know, he arguably cause this had rally from the end of october until the end of the year. and he now seems to have put a little cold water on the rally over the last couple of days and caused this move higher in interest rates where he says policy is set properly those are quotes no reason for the fed to move as rapidly as in prior easing cycles it goes to where i started we're not really sure what's exactly happening and how the fed will react to it, but the market has priced a lot of stuff in >> i think it's safe to say we're not sure i'm not waking up in the middle of the night worrying about the markets right now. i will acknowledge to everyone watching this is a heavy tape right now, no question about it. and i think this is just simply an adjustment to the idea we're not getting a rate cut in march. we shouldn't have gotten a rate cut in march but are likely to get one in may i think the market simply g

in particular waller pushed back against that.e highlighted the concern that they could cut if inflation does continue to move down, if we don't get a tick back up in inflation. i thought it was key he said we don't have to move as quickly as we have done historically. that has actually been one of the arguments a lot of people have made for pricing in a rate cut sooner rather than later. the last rate was july. that means we are about to go past the six months that has been about the average cap between the last hike and the first cut. he is saying to people using that logic, hold your horses. yvonne: there is a lot of debate among fed watchers about if the fed is about to embark on some rate cutting cycle, what happens to qt. garfield: it's one of those interesting things where a lot of fed officials have been keen to say the two are not linked. by the same token, part of the aim of reducing the fed's balance sheet is to effectively tightened conditions, because a big fed balance sheet continues to push down yields, continues to

but the fed's christopher waller warning about cutting too quickly and too much so how do you position against this backdrop? our market guest sees four areas of opportunity >>> plus, a punch in the gut that's how our trader describes what some of the bank earnings have felt like so far, but he's buying three of the banks, tells us which ones, and the one name he's avoiding right now. >>> and some encouraging signs on housing we'll check in at a open house and hear from buyers and check in with a builder. the ceo of taylor morrison joins us live. we begin with today's markets and dom chu has all the numbers. >> it's been a bit of a whip saw movement in the markets. it started off as a down day we saw moves back towards the session highs and peaks of green for the nasdaq composite, only to head back down again. so generally speaking, we're off ha about a half percent the dow down three quarters of 1%, so fairly significant. half of 1% for the broader s&p 500. 4757 is the last trade there and one half of 1% declines as well for the nasdaq composite index, 14,892, the level there one plac

during earlier today from christopher waller. that is pending the dollar of higher.t the highest levels this december, john. john: moving from the currency story to a lot of real news, let's start with canadian connections. restaurant bands, the parent company of tim hortons but it also overwritten the burger king business. they have reached a deal to acquire their largest burger king franchisee in the united states, more than 1000 burger king locations, part of a plan to improve profitability at burger king that has been playing out in the last couple of years. a deal that has fallen apart also making headlines at this hour, as we reported here on bloomberg, jetblue and. , according to this federal judge in boston, cannot come together in their planned deal on antitrust concerns. there is a concern from the federal judge about the cost realities that would come from this combination. you initially saw a spike in jetblue airways shares. we also saw a dramatic drop in spirit because of the volatility. we had also seen halt action. spirit shares are down 55%. sonali: 5

are waiting for a speech in around 40 minutes, 39 minutes that is going to be delivered by chris wallerept that we now have a change in plan. i understand the weather is a little implement. i understand it is pretty bad down in the as well -- in d.c. as well. it looks like this event will be virtual only, but this is what everyone is watching out good do we get pushback from the fed and waller on market pricing? we are seeing evidence of that shift today in pricing in the markets. look at the dollar. sonali: the dollar and fed futures. expectations for the bar -- march hike are a little lower. let's see how quickly that could be wiped out with the economic data we have we also have yields slightly on the rise. not by much. looking at a 417, 418 handle. guy: it is adjusting because the data are starting to show evidence that was the powell pipit, we are starting to see evidence easier financial conditions are reigniting this economy. i am just wondering if this has almost been a good dry run for the fed understanding the impact that cuts will have. how finely balanced is this economy? is

waller really walk that back, i think he was strong in communicating that things will be gradual.ou are not going to be looking at 50 or 75 basis rate cuts unless there is an external shock to growth or two, there is some real deceleration in the labor market. so far what we saw with initial jobless claims this week, the labor market is still rocksolid. sonali: have much risk is there that you start to see a material fall off in the economic data, particularly labor? krishna: i think the risk is relatively mild. what is more interesting is the market's expectation for that risk. if you look around things, you look at the various commentators, the conclusion and positioning as well, the conclusion has to be that we are expecting kind of a gradual deceleration in inflation. , growth remaining reasonably robust and rates remaining very well behaved. in that scenario, the pain trade doesn't mean it will come about, but the thing that the markets are most il--positioned for our 10--- that is once and there were not priced into the market. we should pay more attention to that potential

the operative word that you want to listen for jay powell next week to say, which is echoing what waller said last weekend, and is a little bit different than what powell said at the december meeting. sonali: i want to bring in a point you were making, peter, this idea that asset prices are not quite responding to any of the potential issues ahead. guggenheim was weighing in on the impact of that policy, writing that investors "should bear in mind a committed lift impact of the change in interest rates since the fed started training, because even if they fall from here, we do not see them returning to the lows of the prior cycle, and the markets exuberant response must be balanced against downside risks." where do you find those downside risks? peter: well, that's an interesting take. i tend to agree with that. one of the things we have to keep in mind is we really have come to the end of a 40-plus-year secular bull market in bonds, and it is going to be very hard for the fed to accommodate quickly enough in the case of a slowdown in the way it has in past cycles, where the fed has typic

. >> and am scarlet fu. 2023 has given way to risk are generally as christopher waller's comments gratuity s&p 500 is limited losses. two days of treating this week and two days

waller couldn't hurt the mag seven.e couldn't. >> no. >> he took a shot, and he failed >> everybody fails >> everyone fails. >> it's like the van wick. you can't beat the van wick. it's an old "seinfeld" -- have you ever gone to kennedy airport? has there ever not been traffic on the van wick? >> you can't get past the van wick but i will say that people are talking about the mag eight, but there are only seven people. amd. >> b of a made note yesterday of broadcom catching up to tesla's market cap >> we're stuck with they kept the avgo symbol because hock liked that >> for half a trill. but it's still a ways away from tesla. >> $170 billion. >> tesla's doing its best to come down and meet in between there. >> thanks for that visual. >> yeah. >> meanwhile, we got retail sales under our belt and we're not done today let's get to rick santelli >> yes, we are waiting the utilization numbers. these are for december, of course, and they are hitting the wires as i speak up 0.1% on headline industrial production the mirror ima

waller said the federal reserve could be close to cutting rates when data shows inflation is decreasing. >>> to wall street were today's trading session ended in the red. the dow fell nearly 232 points. market analysts say that boeing was a big factor tumbling more than 8%. this comes after a continued selloff after troubles with the 737 max9 airplanes. the s&p and the nasdaq saw a slight dip today also. >>> what does your bank know about you? it turns out, quite a bit. and they will show you if you have to see. i am your consumer investigative reporter and we will show you how next. >>> also, the 49ers are getting ready for what could be a soggy playoff game against the packers this weekend at levi stadium. we will take you sit to santa clara to talk football and talk a little fashion. >>> and i will have an updated look at some weekend rain that could be heavy. and we are looking at the heavy rain going from vallejo and a rain going from vallejo and a he not just any whiteboard... ...katie porter's whiteboard is one way she's: [news anchor] ...often seen grilling top executives of ban

charles: okay, so earlier this week fed governor waller made some really curious comments.fact, the market was up on his comments, then it was down, now it's back up. but there was one thing he talked about want to price and demand. i want to share it with the audience and get your thoughts. >> go to fred, pull up pc are u, take the log, look at that thing. the level inflation is permanently higher. that doesn't happen with supply shocks, that comes from demand. and this was a permanent increase in demand, permanent increase in department. charles: so the supply stocks, like, you and i have talked about this, and you've actually said maybe powell was right on the transitory participant of inflation -- part of inflation. it's been cured, and yet prices remain higher. but when you hear a fed governor using the words like permanently higher, permanent demand, does it bother you at all? >> well, i don't agree with it, so it doesn't bother me per se because i don't agree with it, and i think what it is, the price level went up, and it's not coming down. prices usually don't come

daniel waller shuts bolts. and this with us, he says that the west foot of all the pool money into grades and sole when she monetary and situation in africa, of the conflict between russia and ukraine. and in the remind you of that situation in africa are 2 things that are of interest to the world, but it is what a lot of people in africa will call you folks to see that the waste focus more on the conflict in russia. then the really you might have to test situation in africa, for example, in africa, the new flavors, they did this log on in business such an amount of money to do, would you mind me did ask the question. so then in egypt as on fonts about not being able to be the target that the united states of america who projected $2600000.00 at the beginning. the idea of what the people's got, the amount for the hold of the user disinvite image, welcoming to google be actually to the only been able to spend $500.00 after do a $1000000.00 you should do. now, what did you control? that was what the expensive you

i'm also coming up the leader and has waller ones israel. the cost of any water and level on will be very high after the killing of a top. how much lead time and bay which is very raging parts of the occupied westbank have been underway for more than 24 hours. at least one person's died and dozens of palestinians have been arrested. and video from gaza city shows that almost destroyed leaving neighborhoods and recognize that more than 22000 palestinians have been killed since the war began. the airlines president abraham, i see added supreme leader, ayatollah ali accommodate. you have both divided what they call off harsh was phones after 2 blocks it's killed at least 95 people in the side of the country. explosions happens at a cemetery in the city of caroline during the ceremony at the tomb of a senior at any in general customs. so the money michael apple reports, the ambulance is rushed to reach the wounded off to 2 explosions ripped through. a crowd of mon is in the city of kent, them on in southeast, in your video, shows dozens of bodie

and because the red wallers that will lose their seats, isn't it?ell, the red walls will lose brexiteers that will lose their seats. the red wallers for starters. there's an awful others. i think one awful lot of others. i think one of things that's really of the things that's really spooking conservatives spooking the conservatives is also you know, also the blue wall. you know, all those historically safe all of those historically safe conservative seats been tory for 100 looking 100 years now, looking vulnerable. yeah. >> that's interesting >> well that's interesting because for the third pmqs in a row, sir ed davey, leader row, sir ed davey, the leader of the in the liberal democrats, wasn't in the liberal democrats, wasn't in the get the the chamber. do you get the feeling a stronger liberal feeling of a stronger liberal democrat leader? in democrat leader? they'd be in even more trouble. oh, yeah. democrat leader? they'd be in eveabsolutely. ble. oh, yeah. democrat leader? they'd be in eveabsolutely. there's yeah. democrat leader? they'd be in

down to comments from one particular member of the federal reserve board of governors, christopher waller making comments yesterday that moved the market. take a listen to what he had to say. >> with economic activity and labor markets in good shape and inflation coming down gradually to 2%, i see no reason to move as quickly or as rapidly in the past. kriti: so he's on board that perhaps inflation is going to come down, perhaps the federal reserve may cut. history doesn't serve as an accurate roadmap for how federal reserve should move forward. perhaps that mentality needs to be taken with more caution. the bond market puts the 10 year yield at 406. higher above that key 4% level. five to seven basis point move in that tenor which we haven't seen in a couple weeks now. dollar strength is the story, in line with the bond market move you saw overnight. euro-dollar weaker. cable at 126. even brent crude down 6/10 of 1%. for now, quick check on how asian markets are faring. walk us through it. avril: asia stocks are feeling that pushback. perhaps more importantly for assets in this part of t

christopher waller came out and said these are not the conditions under which the fed are losing andtimulates that fed funds rate at a lower rate. paul: we can imagine a scenario that the government needs -- economy needs support and we come back to the ai section, this is the fourth industrial revolution. you need to expect creative disruption that comes along with that. any stocks you are avoiding as well? >> unfortunately, this industrial revolution is the one that is going to change the face of human capital as we know it. there are so many people that think this is a blue-collar situation and you go into your fast food restaurant and it will be all dramatized. it is beyond that. drivers, universally, potentially losing positions, blue-collar, but also chatgpt for example, we already have had lawyers submit briefs that have been quickly generated by chatgpt. you have all of the data of the united states and the court cases into a singular database and you say craft me a brief, leading these arguments using these case laws, everything eventually will come down to canopy systematiz

christopheÅ waller said he was becoming more confident that we are within striking distance of the annual%. he said that the fed is on track to cut interest res later this year, as long as inflation does not pick up steam. it has fallen steadily sense and clocked in at an annual rate, according to the latest labor department data. çtom in michigan. good morning. thank you for taking my call. the american dream defiance opportunity. an opportunihave to get a good . it takes work and sacrifice to do that. employers with open arms are looking for people who not only work hard but get customers. people struggling to save, i apologize. i travel a lot and the starbucks in the airport are packed with 30-year-olds and younger buying seven to eight dollar lattes. thethere because the opportunities are offered to all of us. those who do not take advantage of them, the outcome thank you. host: checking in obook, with inflation, pandemic a social strife, the nation is■qar from dream like the last few years. on an individual level, everybody can tune that out and still pursue what they can of their ow

we have been told this week very clearly by waller that the cuts will be methodical. will be cautious. bostic reaffirms that. this is not gfc, this is not pandemic, not taper tantrum land. the cadence of these rate cuts, we really need to recalibrate. do we think we have recalibrated sufficiently, and what speed and scale do you think we will get 2024, 2025? lindsey: i think the market is still ahead of itself. the fed is clear they are willing to have a conversation about rate cuts, but the support or initiating those is not unilateral. it has to come with a prerequisite that inflation continues back down to a sustained 2% level. the data right now does not support that. the notion that the fed would be willing to engage in rate cuts in the first quarter very much seems unjustified. looking at the data, with ruth accelerating beyond earlier expectations, and as we just talked about, a solid consumer, the expectation for even a second quarter cut may be too early to price in. the fed sitting on the sidelines until the second half of the year, with a very tempered pace

jan: we heard from governor waller last week and he said we have to be careful, at least in no hurryg rates. seems to lead to a repricing on the market. but there is still a chance that a march cut is now a coin toss. but you are saying goldman sachs is quite likely. how strong of a case is it for a march cut? jan: it is still our baseline because i think it is consistent with the inflation data and what we heard from chair powell at the december press conference when he said that they would like to cut well before inflation gets back to 2%. now, core pce inflation has been running at 2%, actually slightly below, for the last six months. the year-on-year rate is still closer to 3%, but by the second quarter we will probably be pretty close to 2%. so if you combine all of those things, then a march cut would make sense. that said, a march cut, or cuts in general in the next few months, are somewhat optional because of what i said earlier. the economy is holding up pretty well. we do not think it is essential that they cut here, but it would be consistent with the signaling. stephen: -

we saw governor walz over -- waller give a speech titled almost as good as it gets, but how much longer? i think we are looking at the economy and we are very impressed. inflation has come down dramatically. look how much the market has come up from october of last year which i think is roughly whenever one could conclude that the fed was done raising interest rates. then the conversation became about lowering interest rates. imagine what could happen if they actually lower interest rates. that's what i'm concerned about, that it could spark a melt up in the market. >> look what bullard said yesterday. he is retired now but this is a person who is pretty hawkish suggesting we will cat before 2%. not that this is a new thought but it could come as early as march even as the market started to talk itself out of march and even price that out. >> i don't have a problem as long as i figure out when to get out. that's the problem with melt tops is that they lead to meltdowns. it's not up to me. it's up to the market and the money that's in there. i think they would be making a mistake to lowe

fed gomp christopher waller says he sees, quote, no reason to move as quickly or cut as rapidly in thet does that actually mean? cnn economic commentator katherine ranpel. talk to us about the significance of the fed, this first meeting and what it means for everyone at home. >> sure. so, the fed is meeting today or has been meeting actually the last couple of days. as you note. and everybody wants to know what they're looking at. and what they're looking at is the same data everybody else is examining, the state of the economy. and the real question is how hot or cold is the economy today. and there's some conflicting data on that. so the kind of things they'll be considering, what's happening to prices obviously on lots of consumer's minds. what's happening to other broader measures of economic activity, gdp has been stunningly strong last couple quarters, beating expectations and what's happening to the job market, phil mentioned, has really held up. let's dig into some of those numbers. so, on inflation, this is the chart of the fed's preferred measure of inflation. it strips out e

look at the premarket here we're going to get to a lot more including discussion about the fed's waller tayod, big speech at 11:00 which might set the tone for the weekend a bunch more when we return. (laughter) at 88 years old, we still see the world with the wonder of new eyes, helping you discover untapped possibilities and relentlessly working with you to make them real. old school grit. new world ideas. morgan stanley. a force to be reckon with. no, not you saquon. hm? you! your business bank account with quickbooks money, now earns 5% apy. 5% apy? that's new! yup, that's how you business differently. you can't buy great conversations or moments that matter, but you can invest in them. at t. rowe price our strategic investing approach can help you build the future you imagine. t. rowe price, invest with confidence. get over here kids. can help you build time for today's lesson. wow. -whoa. what are those? these are humans. they rely on something called the internet to survive. huh, powers out. [ gasp ] are they gonna to die? worse, they are gonna get bored. [ gasp ] wait look! they

some comments from waller this week were that what's the difference, another six weeks, i agree with him. i don't think it matters to wait another six weeks and start cutting in may instead. i think they still are going to try to avoid those mistakes. the risk that we would run -- and this goes to josh's point, if it's the upper echelon, if we start cutting rates too soon, get who will start paying? then you have everybody and people can repeak in inflation and we have a problem. i think that's what they're trying to avoid. you don't want to drive more enthusiasm than already started to come into the market starting in october and go the other direction. >>> let's get to some committee moves. bill, you bought linos this morning. >> leidos is defense software, civil software. if you go through the airport, you see tsa security and leidos is the one you walk through. >> before you go on a spirit airlines plane -- >> yes. they are all over the place. this is a great place to be. it moves higher, solid earnings reports, so i'm upbeat to see what comes next. i would like to build in and s

congressman mike waller conned enough to join us, the house financial services committee foreign affairse too many like that on capitol hill. congressman let me get your take on the more conservative members, some members are not pleased with this and not about to ride off on it, are you worried this thing could be unraveling and for speaker johnson could be at crippling. >> this is been the fight all of the last year frankly between house freedom caucus members and the rest of the conference. there is a reality that everybody has to accept we do not have complete control washington, democrats controlled the white house and democrats controlled the senate. you have to negotiate and find compromise. obviously our objective is to reduce spending and start bend the curve, we did that to the framework with speaker mccarthy and redoing that hereunder speaker johnson. ultimately if we want to tackle our national debt we need to deal with mandatory spending, we all acknowledge that. but you need to have obviously here a bipartisan agreement or you're never going to pacitti thing. that is a real

make its way further out of just the confines of the fort and out further into hampton, as as in waller county, which is now newport news, and then eventually over to norfolk, more and more people started coming to the fort because as many of the confederates were fleeing. well, those individuals and this is a famous drawing that was done. and so if you visit fort monroe, you actually have to go h that needle, i call it the needle don't go through it a bus unless you knoto drive a bus, go through it in a small vehicle, you can because it is a narrow opening. they renamed that pat freedom way. and this picture is what began this idea of seeing fort monroe as freedoms fortress because these individuals were accepted. if y imagiere was no way this fort could accommodate thousandeople coming in and living on the grounds of the for the fort had one big problem and that was water. they were surrounded by water, but they had very little fresh water. in fact, that would continue to be an issue for the fort, even through the 1880s and nineties. and so they could not accommodate a lot of people.

from weta studios in washington and in the west from the waller cronkite school of journalism at arizona state university. geoff: the u.s. strikes against the houthis mark a significant escalation the middle east. the world is waiting whether the strikes will accomplish their goal to top the houthis from targeting ships in the red sea oratrices risk of an even wider conflict. nadia was born and raised in yemen and is a scholar at the middle east institute in washington, d.c. thank you for being was. and how will the u.s.-led strikes against houti targets in yemen? how will that affect the litant groups moving forward in your view? >> well, the houthis have surviveed intense air strikes from the saudis and amradis and they survived that and emerged stronger than before. so air strikes might neutral lies the houthi threat shipping but that will be temporarily. >> what impact will these air strikes have? >> they are concerned about these air strikes because they lived the horrors of air strikes for eight years. and these air strikes caused a lot of civilian casualties a lot of destruction b

so it was a bit of what fed governor waller called a head fake., mike has some good reasons that we've been talking about, why that may not happen again. but the important point from that is that markets seem to be priced for this linear movement in what is essentially a very volatile, non-linear series. so i'm a little concerned about that. you could get a pop in the cti or the bte, and it may not mean anything in terms of the overall trajectory, but it would be something that could cause markets, which are all the way on one side, to have to adjust. >> we were talking about that a little yesterday, mike. but even if that's true, even if the cpi readings come in sticky for a couple of months, do you think anyone would interpret that as a serious problem? in other words, do you think they would change their trajectory if the inflation reading is half a point higher than, you know, we would like it to be? >> i think the fed is pretty well positioned to stay its course. it's got a 75 basis point cutting path for 2024 and '25, 100 basis points. so wi

that waller speech next week is going to be big. >> i don't think that's different from what the topaying. wells fargo, i think, would certainly agree with that. wells, remember, i know this is hard for people to understand, but wells had a history of really forecasting about it. previous regime. forecasting horribly and then every time they would dcome on, on the 3:00 show, and say we missed. i have said that charlie is not a nice guy. i'm going to take that back. >> we're going to talk to mike santomassimo, the cfo, this afternoon. the leaders are bny, citi, jpmorgan, along with marathon and eog. >> this is incredible. i mean, to have both of those go up. i mean, we would have thought that something inflationary would hurt those, but jpmorgan's price to earnings multiple is so ridiculously low versus any enterprise software company. you're buying these companies cheaply. reme remember, the number one performer so far this year is health care. these numbers, if they continue, we would start liking them more than tech. i do think that it's great to have some broadening. i was hoping

strength across the board on the back of the hawkish comments coming from the fed governor christopher wallertting a lot of pressure on the euro dollar, 108.69 i mentioned the yield picture and we saw the yields in the uk rising across the curve really take a look at the 10-year guild yield currently sitting at 3.88%. mandy. >> thanks very much for that, carolin. growing political geo instability is threatening to drive prices higher again. we've been asking central bankers to dust off their crystal balls and tell us what they see >> everything we've seen in recent weeks points to the opposite direction, so i may er even foresee no cut at all this year. >> the first quarter of 2024 is going to be challenging. inflation is coming down we sometimes focus on core or services inflation. >> if i think in nominal terms, obviously they should. be higher than to date, and bearing major surprises, we look at the middle east our next move will be cut probably this year. >>> we will stick to our guns. we will stick to what is the right path to take in 2025 we think we can do it. but there are risks out

investors scaling back after president waller says rate cuts should not be rushed making a cut in marchs likely, the yields look like this, take a look at the tenure at of retail sales in december put prices at 8:30 a.m. eastern, the ten year sitting at 4.05% down for ten to one basis point. i'll speak with top economic leaders and davos the election, the economy and technology innovation in artificial intelligence. back in washington about administration reversing course putting houthis back on the terrorist list after removing the group after the start of biden's term partly because designated the houthis as a terrorist group this after the houthis attacks cause disruption in the sectors, president biden is inviting congressional leaders to a critical meeting on national security spending. everything you need to know about spending in a new package coming up. the european markets, to get look at the eurozone, red across-the-board, the s&p 101 at just 16, what inapposite lower, cat krohn down 87, 1.1% lower and dax index 171 lower better than 1%, and asia overnight, economic data set t

maria: in step with what you just said, governor christopher waller acknowledged this week, saying interestate cuts wail willlikely happen but urging the central bank to move carefully. that's a real issue. if they move too fast they get themselves in the same place they were, right? >> do you remember when we said they were moving too slow. when did they become fast? seriously. you know what the answer is? never. they're going to go slow because they go slow so their costs will be much, much -- cuts will be much, much slower. maria: ann wa walsh was with he yesterday. she said the rate cuts are happening and they're going to start in march. watch this. >> i think inflation is starting to look like it's really settling down, owner equivalent rent is being stubborn in its movement down but at the same time ppi reflected what's really happening in our view in the economy and so, yes, i think the inflation story is a reallgood one. it's on a downward trajectory. as a result, i think the fed's going to be given the opportunity to lower rates. maria: you're on the other side of that trade? >> ma

maria: christopher waller said interest rate are likely this year, saying he doesn't see a treen movetein is here to talk about the macro story and his predictions for 2024. great to see you. >> thank you for having me. maria: shank you for being here. what is your assessment of the fed and macro story right now. what do you think happens this year. >> the fed is going to have cuts. i don't think it's going to be six cuts. the fed is data driven. i think the fed would like to get cuts out of the way before the presidential election heats up. if you're going to have cuts a month before the presidential election it would be criticized by the republican nominee who presumably is going to be donald trump. i think the fed wants to stay out of politics and not be seen as helping t the democratic candidate. they want to get rate cuts out of the way. maria: do you think we start seeing rate cuts in march? >> the fed is going to have a meeting in january. and i think they're going to look at the data. but the data will change of course in february but i think march is likely to have rate cut.

the late county states attorney, michael waller, said it was not enough to make a arrest. >> we don'tike? that >> no, no physical evidence. >> that was not all police are missing. >> one of the questions i asked was, can we put marni anywhere near the field on the morning of the murder? they said, no. okay, that's a problem. >> police had checked security tape from a gas station near the murder scene for marni effendi suv, but bam nothing. >> when we discuss it, i said, have you checked all potential avenues, rental cars, disposable cell phones? which is what they did. >> that turned out to be fruitful. >> we find she rent a car in 2007 and returned it on the day the homicide. >> it was from enterprise and the pickup address on the farm led directly to the home of marni's best friend, kristie passion. more interesting was the odometer reading. >> it was a black volkswagen and returned with 40 miles. >> 40 miles. detective had a hunch. he drove between enterprise, christie's home, and the murder scene. round-trip, it added up to 40 miles. >> i know the route. i know she did it. then, h