-- they weretes ,unning, trailing 12 month running at 1.8%. to date that is up to 2.4%.ou have the actual default right, which is what you are talking about. you have a bear-pessimistic forecast, which could be as much as 15 or 16? moody's forecast. we are at taking of what the rating agencies uses a central forecast. they probably have the best data source to forecast the best-worst and base scenarios. i think it is a fair assumption to say that if default rates are at about 2.5% today, there is a good chance they will double over the next year, go up to about 5%. i think that is a reasonable forecast based on the amount of stretch in the market, where prices are, spreads are, and it would encapsulate what is going on in the more stress parts of the market. 5% is a meaningful increase from one year ago when we were at 1.8%. joe: what keeps me up at night -- you up at night? about heavyy a lot bond supply. our market is groaning under the weight of five years of nearly a trillion dollars of bond issuance, and we see that each successive deal is pushing spreads wider, in

done to women throlauhout the muslim world including in the netherlands where the muslim populations weretic ot assimilating at all. for his efforts, van gogh is shot off his bicycle in downtown -- downtown amsterdam and shooter, a muslim takes a knife and spikes the five page letter into the chest and in that letter threatens the life, she expects support from the progressive knee of the origins of the netherlands and does not get it at all. y. provoke these people? can't you get along? the rodney king line. she is forced to flee the united states. in the united states she writes this brilliant autobiography called infidel, sold millions of copies, brand bes univ. invites her to speak in 2014 at her commencement and the knee of puritans rebel on the brandeis campus combined with the islamic knee of puritans and the president of brandeis, created post holocaust to prevent another holocaust falls like the cheap suits and they this invite her at the last minute. good wo yors matter little. all her good wo yors mattered n at all when faced with that kind of aggressive uprising. face triumphs ov

and so this is still that several dozens have managed to make it back to the u.s., and many of them weret not on the u.s. law enforcement radar to begin with, because some of them radicalized so quickly they made it over before they were caught. that is one example of the big issue here. >> and as i look at the executive summary, the final point they make is that ultimately severing the foreign fighter flow is going to be at the hands of the eliminating the problem in the first place, and bobby ghosh, to you, yesterday we had two divergent opinions from two leaders of how to do that. and the united states wants a regime change, and assad out of syria, and the russian president say saying, not so fast, and look at what happened when that was effectuated in iraq, and it could be worse than what you have now, and so could there be a solution on the horizon? >> neither of the world leaders have offered a real solution apart fromer generic bromide s a coordinated effort, and these young men, and they are mostly young men traveling around the world to get to syria, they don't care what vladimir

annette: i think their time in travel weret their probably also influenced them. they saw what it was like to be in countries where freedom had been taken from people. susan: what influenced their joint philosophies? what about them in their development lead them to view the world in that way? i don't know if they had that view when they started because they were in china during the boxer rebellion, they were in europe during the outbreak of world war i. they had lived in countries where people's freedoms had been curtailed. -- andicans and being feeling strongly about individual freedoms and then visiting countries where people did not enjoy the same freedoms, they realized those freedoms were important. they acquired quite a bit of wealth and were very successful in their chosen fields. they were multimillionaires by 1914. was a the boxer rebellion protest against foreign influence in china. was their life threatens while they were there? annette: yes. a were under siege. they had barricades. lou went out and manned the barricades. she was involved with the red

out the yield curve and if thatave an pac oleningnd f crse rght nothe d isotappith banklendng res weretsrd th te frst part of your answer which is if the fed raises rates tomorrow afternoon that could be -- next question, what happens if the federal reserve leaves rates unchanged? what happens to the market then? >> if they stay unchanged you have the possibility that that could show a sign of lack of confidence and that could shake the markets. obviousl people liket likes it interest rates are low. anybody's guess on what is going to happen in the near term. stuart: you are joining other guests on this program earlier today all of whom said if the fed does raise rates is not necessarily ought bad thing. it might result in the modest rally in the short term. very interesting. kind of against conventional wisdom. thank you for joining us, it is a pleasure, thanks for being here. let me get to the california as story. a surgeon there has been charged as the ringleader in the state's biggest health fraud scheme. unnecessary surgery, many of these procedures were done by an untrained assista