haidi: sean callow, currency senior strategist at westpac here in sydney.s incoming co-ceo says rising rates are taking trading. he told us exclusively white debt markets are at a major inflection point. >> the liquid in the market is lower today than what it was pre-covid or even in 2021. we are not seeing a lot of trade volume and high issuance in high-yield bond spork in senior loans and part of that is because they just are not willing borrowers. in the case of m&a activity, we are not seeing willing sellers. it is really because at this point there has been a massive inflection point around rates where we have had the inversion or the reversal of 40 years of downward movement in rates and about 12 or 13 years of easy money in the markets. with the rapid inflation have seen in the economy, the fed have said as much, the fed is very much of the opinion that it needs to raise rates for battle inflation, to get to the point where we actually have real rates. in other words, rates in excess of nominal inflationary picture. >> we have seen extraordinary happ

july westpac consumer confidence rising to 81.3, a gain of 2.7% month on month.here the australian economy is headed from here as we get into this kind of end part of the tightening cycle. the most recent skip from the rba showing the hiking cycle is potentially winding down but potentially a couple of more moves could be yet to come. this as some of the data that we have had has been pretty soft lately particularly when it comes to concerns over the state of the consumer and household sector but that westpac consumer confidence number showing a little bit of an uptick. let's get you over to tell for a look at how -- annabel for a look at how the markets are looking. annabelle: half an hour underway for japan, korea, and australia, but kicking off what we are seeing in the bond space in particular, it is being led by retreat in yields similar to what we saw in treasuries overnight but it's about how traders are fitting to recalibrate again the path for fed rate hikes. yes, we had said officials saying there is a need for further tightening in the months ahead but

the weakness in the currency may test support, westpac is out, the gains we see in the aussie dollarht be hampered on these bets that we have reached peak rba rates. there's also a, coming throughout of may back. because of inflation prints, today it's dimming the prospect of any move out of the rba next week. there we go. yields down, aussie down, banks are on the way up 1.5%. global macro muse's desk global macro movers. couple of bright spots. apart from that, it doesn't seem to be a free sigma kinda session. we all need a break at some point, commodity market, oil hovering at three month high. yields are mixed ahead of the fed and what their guidance i don't want you to move. i'm gonna miss you so much. you realize we'll have internet waiting for us at the new place, right? oh, we know. we just like making a scene. transferring your services has never been easier. get connected on the day of your move with the xfinity app. can i sleep over at your new place? can katie sleep over tonight? sure, honey! this generation is so dramatic! move with the xfinity 10g network. rishaad: look

westpac already sand the aussie could be capped in terms of upside at 69 in the near term given these uncertainties over the chinese growth story and the stimulus that may or may not be forthcoming from beijing. nonetheless, futures are pretty optimistic at the moment. kiwi stocks are trading flat. nikkei futures off about .2%. of course it is a big week for the bank of japan and other central banks. shery: let's take a look at moves to watch this week. wednesday the fed is widely expected to resume rate hikes after pausing its 15 month tightening campaign in june, leaning on the uncertainty of monetary lags. chair powell could be signaling a wait-and-see approach. ecb also expected to hike again. traders see the bank boosting borrowing costs to a peak of 4% in september. this would mean two more quarter-point moves starting with this week's decision. the boj will make its policy call on friday. investors waiting for any dental policy tweaks to come with that higher inflation outlook. we will also get tokyo cpi prince on the same day. in chile, investors expecting monetary easing to k

industrial production numbers, australia's westpac leading index, and ppi figures from south korea.aidi: our next guest is looking to extend the rate pause, a call unrelated to the appointment of the new rate governor. richard yetsenga. unrelated to the appointment, because we know she is the continuity candidate. is there more political pressure on the rba than ever? richard: the optical pressure has definitely ramped up on all central banks the last couple of years. they all had a correlated policy challenge in the pandemic and the stimulus may be justified at the time but then kept too long and created this inflation challenge, and a synchronized challenge after. i do not expect the focus to diminishment domestically we can get back to focusing on the outcome of dealing with this inflation challenge. haidi: it will be complicated for the rba. i am interested in the human occasion aspect. does that heighten the risk? richard: they have a lot to do, no doubt about that. then there is the transformation challenge as a result of the review. it must make things more complicated. but o

production numbers, the westpac leading index out of australia, and ppi numbers out of south korea.the earnings front, pivoting from macro to micro. jp morgan posted record profits on friday, wells fargo dealing with additional regulatory scrutiny in the months ahead. numbers coming out for bank of america, morgan stanley, and goldman sachs. looking at markets right now, we are down mostly across the board in hong kong. global macro movers to my right. "daybreak: middle east and africa" is just ahead. happy monday. ♪ i was told my small business wouldn't qualify for an erc tax refund. you should get a second opinion from innovation refunds at no upfront cost. sometimes you need a second opinion. [coughs] good to go. yeah, i think i'll get a second opinion. all these walls gotta go! ah ah ah! i'd love a second opinion. no. i'm going to get a second opinion. with innovation refunds, there's no upfront cost to find out. so why not check like i did for my small business? take the first step to see if your small business qualifies for the erc. is it possible to protect my business from c

. >> let's get some more reaction from bill evans, the chief economist westpac, and the and that everyoneeak to for his reaction, bill, give us your take on this appointment. >> i think it is a quality appointment. philip lowe was one of the great economists in australia for a very long time. his speeches in particular were incredibly insightful. we learned a lot from that. but michelle bullock has only been the deputy governor since half of last year. a very short time. but in that time, she really has impressed us. in particular, she is given some incredibly important speeches. i recall in particular one very courageous speech a few months ago. she was prepared to identify where the reserve bank saw full employment, at 4.5%. she argued full employment, you need to get the unemployment rate up to 4.5% to be consistent with your inflation target. so that was amazingly insightful -- an amazingly insightful piece of communication. i think we are in store for someone who is courageous and who will be very well trained and is going to provide the stability that is needed to boost the reserve

quickly i went to say out westpac, one of the best-known economists in australia, things that they willy pause in september and wait for more data then but he think there's a lot of stickiness and services inflation at macquarie, they see no change because of the softening and inflation. at the same time they realize that more tightening could be possible. this may not be enough inflation improvement as we looked on the road, maybe after the third quarter report, that's been the rba may have to be reevaluated. everybody is in the same place, they know the rba could do either thing. at the end of the day no inflation is under control but you know it's making an improvement. you have to get on one side or the other. it's a decision from the rba where no one will be surprised that i the decision and everybody is waiting to see just what it is. of course. haidi: when it comes to the bank of japan, can we relax? kathleen: yes, according to our bloomberg survey. after that surprised week in yield curve control, still tied to zero, that .5 on the other side of the zero range is now in question