penn wharton sees an almost 1% decline. moody's sees meaningful increase in growth, jobs and higher wages and higher productivity. penn wharton forecast fewer hours worked there's the effect of higher corporate taxes and the impact of government investment return on government investment at moody's seen as hitting an economy with lots of slack in it, each dollar adding to gdp. penn wharton don't see much of what we see a multiplier to government spending and crowding out, big effects of the government borrowing and reducing private investment. another economic and big political question, what's infrastructure penn wharton says a fifth of the plan is transfer payments not investment and model doesn't have return on the investment leading to a bigger question, how do you value social goods like helping the elderly or avoiding shutdowns of the grid these models may not fully capture those benefits folks? >> yeah. doesn't even take into account the fact of another bill or another proposal expected in the next couple weeks to fo

on a rainy day there come to my house edward wharton and three men more. the said wharton spoke to me saying that they were traveling eastward and desired me to direct them to hampton and never saw any of these men a fore except what are ton. neither did i inquire their names nor what they are but by their carriage i thought they might be quakers. and i said so. and, therefore, desired them to pass on, saying to them i might possibly give offense in entertaining them and soon as the violence of the rain ceased, for this rained hard, they went away and i never saw them since. the time that they stayed in my house about three quarters of an hour. they spoke not many words in the time, neither was i at leisure to talk to them for i come home wet to the skin, immediately a fore they came to the house and i found my wife second bid. if this satisfy not the honored court i shall submit unto their sentence. i have not willy offended i am ready to serve and obey you and the lord 28th of the eighth month, 1659. what's really happening here to think that an incident

the wharton school and other universities are contributing to this effort is by leveraging the researchn companies, looking at the firm policies, procedures and practices, looking at government practices and policies that are all influencing this problem and once we have that information, that research-driven set of ideas and insights, we're going to help translate that content in ways that people in organizations can actually take meaningful action in the areas that we've already demonstrated through the research are likely to have the greatest impact. so i think organizations and efforts like 90 to 0 are some of the units that can help hold people accountable because we are identifying what specifically needs to be measured to demonstrate success. >> the government is taking action, too. wes, you wrote an op ed about how crucial biden's infrastructure plan could be for your hometown, the city of baltimore whether it comes to closing the racial wealth gap. can you explain it could be. >> shroudly, if you look at what is included in the package that was the trillion dollar package that

gareth wharton.rtance of china as a market for european car makers, a range of new vehicles have been unveiled at the shanghai auto show officially called auto shanghai. it's a bi—annual event that alternates with the beijing motor show and is fast becoming one of the world's major car shows. but while electrification is one of the big themes this year, the global chip shortage casts a dark shadow over proceedings with volkswagen, for example, saying it's going to hamper production for at least a year. joining me now is amanda stretton, sustainable transport editor, centrica. lovely to see you. tell us how big of a deal this show is this yearfor the car industry big of a deal this show is this year for the car industry on a global scale.— global scale. globally, china is without — global scale. globally, china is without doubt _ global scale. globally, china is without doubt the - global scale. globally, china is without doubt the biggest| is without doubt the biggest market for all carmakers. it is

penn wharton thinks we'll be closer to capacity there's a big issue of crowding out.other question. penn charlton counts 1/5 of the bill as social transfer. they don't give it any return at all. that leads to even bigger questions about how do you value social goods like reducing carbon goods, avoiding texas style shutdowns. the models may not fully capture those benefits if you value them both sides do agree. government has under invested in the economy. some investments only government can make there are big gaps in estimating the impact of this package of spending and of course importantly, becky, how it's paid for >> i think both camps probably made some valid points about the impact of spending but also, you know, the -- how you pay for that, the cost that comes along with it. is it fair to say you just mix these two models up and round it out and that's the answer? or are there other ways that people say you should go about doing this >> you could do worse than that, becky. you know, it's funny i got to ask the cvo and treasury official that runs that is there a

and nathaniel wharton writes to penelope and he's trying to console her on the loss of josiah. we don't have any letters between josiah and penelope that survive. in his will, josiah gave penelope broad powers over the estate. at this time the widows typically received a one-third of their personal property and one-third interest in their real estate. but josiah leaves penelope in charge of everything. he gives her the power to sell land if she needs to. so he clearly has great faith in her abilities of land management, which would have shown during the years that he was governor and was traveling so much and she had to oversee the property. so penelope remains a widow for the final 23 years of her life and she does rise to the occasion, she overcomes her grief, she manages to educate her children, oversee the property. she also wages two legal battles late in life to reclaim family properties. one of them she conducts as late as 1703, right before her death. she writes a petition to massachusetts governor, joseph dudley, so, again, it's an amazing document and it reflects her

and we will get right to the headliner wharton jeffrey seigel, and he is a noted bull, but he is worried, and so professor, any time a known bull like you says they are worried, i need to talk to you. what is up >> well, i am not worried yet, scott. i think that we are in a strong bull market, scott, but interest rates an inflation are going to rise well above what the fed has projected. we are going to have a strong inflationary year, and 4 to 5%, and the fed is going to have to hike sooner than certainly the crazy flop that it put out last month. but in the meantime, enjoy the ride, because it is going to keep on going. >> but for how long? how long does it go? >> i mean, i can see it, i could see it towards the end of the year. because even though interest rates go up, and if the inflation rate is going up more, it pays to borrow. 3% borrowing shouldn't be scary, if you have 4% inflation. so, you know, you are still going to gain by that sort of borrowing, but eventually the fed is just going to have to step in and say, wow, you know, we are just having a little bit too much inflation

professor adam grant, from wharton. professor, thanks very much.oh, no. i -- i am ironclad and resolute and adamant in my appreciation of you being here tonight. thanks very much. >>> this week could bring the end of the derek chauvin murder trial. our expert panel will preview the closing arguments during our special report, at the top of the hour. >>> but just ahead, it's been more than a hundred days since the attack on the capitol. but the pain is still fresh, in the minds of those who were there, that day. >> it's something that will live with me forever, and for which i will never forgive them. the lexus es, now available with all-wheel drive. this rain is bananas. lease the 2021 es 250 all-wheel drive for $339 a month for 39 months. experience amazing at your lexus dealer. all-wheel drive for $339 a month for 39 months. since you're heading off to school, i got you this brita. dad... i just got a zerowater. but we've always used brita. it's two stage-filter... doesn't compare to zerowater's 5-stage. this meter shows how much stuff, or dissol

professor adam grant, from wharton. professor, thanks very much.ope you don't rethink that appreciation. >> oh, no. i -- i am ironclad and resolute and adamant in my appreciation of you being here tonight. thanks very much. >>> this week could bring the end of the derek chauvin murder trial. our expert panel will preview the closing arguments during our special report, at the top of the hour. >>> but just ahead. it's been more than a hundred days since the attack on the capitol. but the pain is still fresh, in the minds of those who were there, that day. >> it's something that will live with me forever, and for which i will never forgive them. m. ♪ the calming scent of lavender by downy infusions calm. laundry isn't done until it's done with downy. if you have postmenopausal osteoporosis and a high risk for fracture, now might not be the best time to ask yourself, 'are my bones strong?' life is full of make or break moments. that's why it's so important to help reduce your risk of fracture with prolia®. only prolia® is proven to help strengthen and

these in kerala and in tamil nadu the elections have been fought on until a different issues and wharton corella and coming not to visit b. doesn't have that much presents the professor let's bring in basically the issue where you. where you are in a because i was there during the ca protests what about 18 months ago and again for our international viewers the issue for many people in assam was the fact that their assamese identity might be diluted if non assamese entered the region entered the state and as you say the issues are very different a very local to the community there what success will the b j p have do you think at the moment in the way that they're conducting their campaign in your state. it's interesting to low down debt in month spectacled their 19 december or anything can you. make that started in order is it existence was a very kewl it was a credible or resistance but that system has gradually gone down now as the election happened you know because it be had also changed its traditions is it has not been talking about in some it has been talking about car only in west

family tradition identifies two of the three other men with edward wharton as marmaduke stephensons and william robinson, the two quakers hung in boston in october of 1659. in august of 1659, those two men are captured. they are imprisoned in boston and they write a volatile letter to the court that somehow becomes public. what i want you to think about is thomas macy, in the time that he is taking to prepare to bring his family to this island, he is seeing events speeding, speeding, speeding in the suppression of quakers. he knows these men face to face as he is about to leave town have just been executed on boston common. one of the reasons that he may have wanted to get out is that he himself was living in secret. not as a quaker but as a baptist. baptists were living with liberty of conscience. there is a distinction. freedom of religion means you can practice anything you would desire. liberty of conscious is such that you outwardly conform to the church practices of the day. when at home, as long as you practice what you desire in secret, you will never be endangered. by taking in

if we let up flation run hot, so be t that's why you are jeremy siegel it is wharton school saying we're only in the third inning of the boom, and you have nothing to wet weather about under the fed does make that signal this becomes a bet is the fed doing it earlier than expected or not. >> there's a lot to unpack there. first, i would say you're right on the 65% allocation, it is the best assets we have from an allocation point of view however there's a way to -- where you build a lot of convexity into the system. while you can run -- you can put on a whole lot more protection in terms of convexity. by the way, i think the market is still going higher. however, you know, changing the mix of it and creating more convexity in the portfolio i think is important i would looks to see the fed change the communication you can -- i actually think the fed should still by accommodative. however, you look at the front end of the yield curve and where so much liquidity is put in the system, there's not in which assets to purchase in the front end. i do think -- the thing that would really hurt the

i think wharton's important, president biden called a crisis and i think it's important to know crisiss a civilian means immediate action needs to be taken but it doesn't seemed like that is happening. senator mayorkas, secretary rather, then down to the border three separate times but why is that word getting to present joe biden? why isn't it getting to kamala harris? why is nothing being done? is a huge worry to me, we need to address this. kamala harris said this isn't going to be fixed overnight which is true but the needs to be a start. it's not going to be fixed overnight, where do we start we're kind of sitting back a bit of a priority arrests by ice are dropped by 75%. we are starting to associate cartels not only with drugs but also associating them with smuggling and trafficking. governor greg abbott has said we need to shut these things down, sexual assault, we really need help, why isn't that happening? >> i think you're right but the way you start to implement a plan to resolve is you actually go up to the border and listen to the people addressing the crisis on the borde

. >> host:ro art guest is from the wharton school of business university of pennsylvania columbia law school -- on the business side of your experience and when it comes the biden administration's plans to raise taxes 20% when you think as the agenda of the biden administration andnd corporatio? >> so first of all corporations the supreme court never decided you could look into that there's a case in the 1800's where the head of the railroad corp. said -- are human beings and the summary of the case never ruled that corporations found a way to take over this country. you have all these science-fiction movies where machines or the robots take over. we are in a science-fiction movie because the machine we told corporations because they are legal fiction they took over the country. how do they do at? they started with the railroads and 1800's but mainly citizens united so we -- the supreme court said corporation to give a moment of money to politicians for the city worker that is called bribery. now we go oh no $1 million to politician all but there does having a friendly conversation. n

the tax foundation has very similar estimates, pete, and the, um, the 10 wharton model gives you the same so this idea that these taxes are going to somehow help the economy and this idea they're going to raise lots of revenue to pay for all the social welfare that the democrats want is just nonsense. it's not going to happen. and if you start taxing american business and 2 $2.5 trillion -- we don't know. there's more coming when the budget is finalized, pete, you'll probably be above $3 trillion in taxes. you're going after corporations, you're going after their profits, ok? that means investment is going to fall. that means jobs are going to fall. that means wages are going to fall. this is not a free lunch. this is going to be a very very painful and it'll make us less competitive globally. before donald trump. we had the highest corporate tax in the world. donald trump brought us down 25 or 30 points and, um, made a big score and the results showed with job creation, low unemployment and repatriation of overseas money. if the biden plan goes through, 28% top rate put in 4.5% per

spending plus taxing, you are going to lose jobs, these estimates are always off, estimates from the pen whartonfoundation, estimates from the national association manufacturers, rice university economist, you're going to lose jobs. we are going to lose capital investment and we are going to lose wages. it's a terrible idea. >> harris: talk to me about why some things, we are on with the rnc chairwoman, why those things are happening and is this type of big spending help or not? >> well, look, you can't redefine infrastructure so the spending totals are vastly, vastly too large. may be slightly more, slightly less and that's less than 20% of the total package. you don't need social welfare programs, you do not need unionization programs, you do not need a green new deal programs. one thing they don't even have in their areas permitting reformed to get through projects in one eye three years which would be the most efficient thing they could have done and they left that out, remarkably. and on the other side, harris, you are going to kill the economy with tax increases, we are not going to be com

so benign were the words from the fed chair that the esteemed finance professor jeremy siegel at wharton saying this is the most dovish fed chair he has ever seen the continued unwavering support from the fed may be one reason why investors are more bullish than they have been in years bullishness has spiked to its highest level since early 2019 with us, quincy and andrew let's -- welcome to both of you. andrew, do you agree with jeremy siegel that this is the most dovish fed chair of our memory sound to me that way you know, not only that, you see the vix, the volatility index, it's back down to where it was prepandemic kmwhich is actually dangerous because it means that people are very, very optimistic tyler, you have been in this business a long time you know when people say i expect volatility in the future. that's because we had volatility in the past, recently. now peep don't expect much volatility and the vix is very low. that and the fed being so dovish is a little bit of a warning sign as euphoria is building i agree. >> quincy, let me pick up on that point that andrew just made

an aggregate all of this would take effect with the american jobs plan but this comes as the penn whartonu take tax and spending provision together would lead to negative economic growth in the u.s. for each of the next three decades treasury officials said they disagreed with the overall finding of that report they believe these plans would be decidedly pro growth, but notably, carl and team, treasury did not provide much new data and many new numbers on how much each of these provisions would raise at different levels and how likely each one of them is to succeed back to you. >>> huge implications there as we get at least a little bit more from treasury thank you. that's kayla tausche as we go to break keep your eye on snap. up more than 4%. once again the favorite social platform, tik tok a close second up 100% in six months. and that's about a three week high "squawk alley" is back in a "squawk alley" is back in a minute pharmaceutical companies to accelerate their production of critical vaccinations for the world. emerson. consider it solved. keeping your oys.rs business growing of c

. >> jeremy siegel of the wharton school was with us earlier this week he said we're in the third inningally there's nothing to worry about until the fed's first signals that it is going to do something on interest rates. does that sound right to you >> well, i've never been very good at timing the fed, but i would say that, listen, as i said before, as interest rates go higher we apply a higher discount rate to the future cash flows of, right, these growth equities the higher the growth rate, the more impact it has on the ultimate valuation of the company because you're discounting the high growth rate back at a higher discount rate so mathematically it does have an impact, but, honestly, i think that it is not great advice for your investors to try to be guessing the direction of rates and what the fed is going to do. find companies you love that are disrupting markets, that are doing good things in the world, put your money there and enjoy your life. don't spend every day trying tick to tick to trade these things i think it is too hard and not a particularly high returning investment

about the goldilocks scenario, and i go back to a conversation we had with the professor down at the wharton school, jeremy siegel. the name was getting away from me right, who basically said it is a goldilocks environment until the fed does anything, and the fed is not doing anything any time soon. >> right so what has happened since, you know, over the last couple of weeks? we saw ppi, which was really explosive and the fed didn't flinch powell came out afterwards, i think it was in testimony, and said, "we're not raising rates." we saw the numbers that came out yesterday, phenomenal numbers showing great economic strength, and we had that interview today with steve and governor waller saying, "we're not raising rates. so they're not blinking when they're seeing this economic activity, and they're not going to be surprised when they see an 8% gdp number. so that's what has changed that's what has made the market believers, but here is the caution. the caution is if we see a number of these ppi numbers and cpi numbers and didn't really translate cpi this week, it didn't really translate int

our conversation at the very least leading into you, and these comments that jeremy siegel of the whartonthe program yesterday that he thinks we are in the third inning of the boom, nothing to worry about until the fed makes its first move do you agree >> i probably wouldn't agree per se i do think that, look, liquidity talks and liquidity drives markets. so long as they keep getting these big stimulus bills passed there is potential for the nominal value of stocks to go up i think that's a dangerous game to play though i saw a great chart the other day, scott if you take the value of the s&p, divided by the fed balance sheet, it has been dead flat since 2008 if you divide the s&p by gold, it has been dead flat since 1996 so the nominal value keeps increasing, but we are losing purchasing power through the devaluation of our currency. >> so let me ask you, what's there to be mostly negative about? is it, do you have a problem with valuation because, you know, multiples have come in, earnings expectations continue to go up, rates are still incredibly low by historical standards, and jay po

and today, another obstacle for the american-jobs plan economists, at penn wharton suggest there is no long-term return on investment, and that the package decreases economic growth, in each of the next-three decades president biden, for his part, said the size and scope are up for negotiation. but there will be a package. >> we'll be open to good ideas, and good-faith negotiations. but here's what we won't be open to we will not be open to doing nothing. inaction, simply, is not an option >> in that same speech, president biden said he would have been willing to compromise on stimulus, if the republican offer wasn't so small. it's easy to see recent history, potentially, repeating itself. shep. >> kayla, thanks. president biden expected to announce new-executive actions on guns tomorrow the administration is reportedly been considering requiring background checks on so-called ghost guns ones, that are made with parts purchased online, that are nearly impossible to trace earlier, i asked the president's press secretary about his plans. >>> the president is scheduled to unveil a series

but over a ten-year period, the analyst i talked to at the pen wharton budget model say the spendingages by 0.2%, and reducing capital spending overall by 0.1% a 2016 study from the congressional budget office estimates you get a 5% return on productive government investment, but there's already considerable pushback from republicans about whether these investments outlined by the biden administration qualify, carl, as productive. >> this is the key debate listening to you and joe talk about it earlier this morning, steve. something we'll wrestle with for a while. that's our steve liesman this morning. steve, thanks. >>> i got a growing number of corporate executives taking a stand against various voting rights bits of legislation around the country after a number of prominent black business executives, penned a letter with an urgent call to action this week. >> crystal clear and unequivocal, this legislation is unacceptable it is a step backwards, and it does not promote principles we have stood for in georgia. >> this is a call for action we're asking corporate america to publicly

and he called it a terrible idea now, today the non-partisan penn wharton budget model projected that a hike of the cap gains tax alone would in fact reduce federal revenues by $33 billion over a decade because investors would just hold on to their gains until they die however, if biden raises the tax on capital gains and increases taxes at death, the combined proposal would bring in $113 billion. so guys, we really need to see the full picture here to understand what the hit to wall street will actually be. >> another reason to consider the step-up basis. ylan, thanks so much for that. let's bring in terry haines head of policy analysis at pangea policy analysis. headline announcement took some by surprise others not do you think it will actually come to fruition >> thanks for having me, wilford. i doubt this will actually pass. certainly democrats will want something like this. for me the bigger story here is markets have apparently shaken this off today and there's a lot of happy talk that it will never happen the concern for markets i think is that it takes months to figure that o

infrastructure, we've gotten a number of analysis out in the last couple weeks got the latest one from pen wharton>> the budget model finds president biden's infrastructure bill would cost 2 $.7 trillion it would also reduce the level of gdp by nearly 1% by 2031 compared to a prior baseline the analysis is one that the outfit is run by former ceo official kent smeters. it finds a range of economic negatives because it boosts deficits and raises corporate taxes that says it will reduce private investment as well here are some of the analysis of the plan relative to the baseline here according to the model. reduced gdp by 0.9% relative to the baseline hourly wages down 0.7% government debt by that point will be up 1 .7 %. eventually it will come down important to the model shows the plan adds to gdp and productivity before you take out forthis effect they call crowding out in which increase government spending and deficits reduce more efficient private spending some economists don't believe it happens at all or in such magnitude, especially with interest rates as low as they are. now, here's what th

david: rebecca, you have some strange analyses being done, but the wharton school of business sort of corporate tax hike that is being proposed by biden would have little impact on business investment. in fact, they go on to say that it would actually reduce u.s. debt 6.4% over a course of 30 years. do you really think it's possible to spend this much money, to raise taxes and actually reduce the can -- the department9? >> no, david. and if you look at janet yellen this week, she intentionally put out a feeler to say we are going to be going globally and talking to other leaders of foreign nations to get their corporate tax rate up because they know that the rest of the world's at 25. if we go to 28, we're going to lose multi-national corporations to other tax havens. so she's saying that we don't want a race to the bottom, let's get everybody to raise their rates. but if they don't, david, and a lot of them won't, then they will leave america because they can the as multi-national corporations. and bezos, i think, what bezos does and what his company does very well is they leverage t

one analysis from the wharton business school said the bill would actually slow down the economy. that's because the bill would discourage businesses from investing. it's not an infrastructure bill, not p of a jobs bill. it is a slush fund for more liberal spending. that's what is on the minds of the democrats who are pushing this bill forward. it's not what the white house needs right -- it's not what the united states needs right now. we need a real infrastructure improvement, a real infrastructure bill, one that will build roads, bridges, waterways, and allow us to do things faster, better, cheaper and smarter. democrats want to do that republicans are ready to support it. last congress i worked with senator tom carper of delaware on a infrastructure bill. i chaired it last conference. our bill was so bipartisan that senator bernie sanders voted for it and so did i. it passed the committee unanimously 21-0. when we went to work with democrats in the house on the legislation, they ignored it and replaced it with the green new deal. that's what president biden is doing right now

host: are a guest graduated from the wharton school of business at the university of pennsylvania, columbia school as well. let me take the business side of your experience, when it comes to the biden administration plan to raise the global corporate tax, what does it achieve as far as the agenda of the administration -- what does it do to corporations? guest: first, corporations are not people. the supreme court decided you could never even look into that, a case from the 1800s where the owner of a railroad company said railroads are people -- they never ruled that. corporations are way to take over this country. we have science fiction movies were machines or robots take over, guess what? we are in the sciences -- science fiction movie. corporations are the robots. they took over the country. they started with the railroads, but mainly through book tv valeo and citizens united. the supreme court said yes, corporations can give unlimited money to politicians. there used to be a word for that, bribery. now we go, no, $1 million to a politician? i'll bet it's just a friendly conversation. no

according to provisions from penn wharton budget model, as a part of this legislation, overall g.d.p.ill be decreased 0.9% lower in 2021, and hourly wages would be down by 0.7% in 2021 and 0.7% in 2050. programs what's most disappointing are this bill shows are gone are the days when infrastructure packages were an opportunity to build bipartisan bridges. thanks to republicans' control of the senate and reaching across the aisle, the two most bills governing spending on roads and bridges passed with overwhelming bipartisan support before they were signed into law. so in case there is still an opportunity for bipartisanship, let me tell you what i'm for. i'm for a package that, number one, reaches across the aisle and builds our -- and rebuilds our aging roads and bridges. next, incentivizes innovation, invests in future generations, ensures high-speed internet for all americans, and reforms our permitting process so that we can say shovel ready, we really mean shovel ready as opposed to going through years of permitting and driving up the cost of the project. look, pre-covid-19, we ha

experts at the wharton school of business have projected the plan would decrease g.d.p., decrease capital stock, and reduce workers' hourly wages 10, 20 and 30 years down the road. economists at rice you the university recently looked at a similar package of democratic tax hikes and found it would lead to a loss of million jobs here in our country over just two years. exactly when american workers are counting on our economic recovery, democrats want to slap the economy with a massive set of tax increases. so look, this noninfrastructure infrastructure plan is cut from the same cloth as the democrats' non-voting rights bill. both these subjects are ripe for bipartisan work. both are subjects the senate has addressed in the past with thoughtful compromises that have earned broad support. and both are issues where the american people will reject a far-left approach that makes their lives worse. the presiding officer: morning business is closed. under the previous order, the senate will proceed to executive session to resume consideration of the following nomination which the clerk will repo

because of the tax hikes, the university of pennsylvania penn wharton model analyzing this biden plan actually projects we would see a 1% decrease in p g.d.p. and a a decrease in wages. this is extraordinary to me because that is did despite the obvious benefit we're going to get from this infrastructure spending. so despite all that benefit, we're still going to see a reduction in our economy, our economic growth and a reduction in wages. this harms american workers, particularly those toward the bottom of the economic ladder. the bottom line is that the $2.1 trillion tax hike used to pay for this infrastructure bill will harm middle-class families and our businesses. and i believe the american people get that. they recognize this is not the way forward for our economy or for our infrastructure. instead, let's follow the proven bipartisan model on infrastructure. let's keep the plan to real infrastructure. let's agree to what it is. let's do it generously. let's include broadband, let's include water projects, let's make it real infrastructure, though, and then let's come up with sen