there were equal chances of average climate which was represented by a whiteside of a dice or unusually season which was red or cool which was blue. you had equal chances of those. but what we said is by the end of the century would would have loaded dice so that only one side would be normal, one side cooler than normal, and four sides would be unusually warm. now, in fact, that is what has happened. however, what i didn't think about at the time in the 1980s was that as we push the climate toward these hotterm.p climates, the higher temperatures, the extremes, the highest temperatures will be very extreme. and we are now getting about 10% of the area in a given summer is covered by what we call three standard deviation anomalies. those would have occurred only once or twice out of a thousand times. 50 years ago. but now, they are occurring about 10% of the time. that's the wildfires, the extreme droughts, the heatwaves. those are now significant chance of having those. and those are the things that have big economic impacts. >> so explain how we know that these events are happening an